MLB Bets 2026-09-19

Current generated report

Odds data use · 416 / 500 requests used (84 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	149W–122L–0P	55%	-22.83 u	Last 14 days • 271 settled
Grade A	17W–11L–0P	61%	+0.65 u
Grade B	132W–111L–0P	54%	-23.48 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3964W–2518L–8P	61%	-286.57 u	All-time • 6490 settled
Grade A	294W–230L–0P	56%	-12.11 u
Grade B	3668W–2279L–8P	62%	-268.02 u

95 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Corbin Burnes (ARIZ)	3.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	K Prop	Andrew Alvarez	3.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	K Prop	Grant Holmes	3.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	K Prop	Sean Burke	5.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Andrew Alvarez	2.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Freddy Peralta	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Joe Ryan	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Reid Detmers	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Robert Gasser	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cal Quantrill	5.5	-113	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Cameron	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Outs	Cam Schlittler	17.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Walks	Freddy Peralta	2.5	-192	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-19	Pitcher Walks	Grant Holmes	1.5	-115	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-18	K Prop	Chase Burns	3.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Chase Burns: 4.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-18	K Prop	Eduardo Rodriguez	4.5	-157	-	WIN	+0.637	Eduardo Rodriguez: 5.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	685	55%	-33.56u	58	48%	-10.37u	322	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	565	57%	+3.69u	25	52%	-2.50u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	786	55%	-52.46u	93	46%	-21.43u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	531	63%	+7.46u	67	69%	+6.27u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	138	49%	-13.65u	3	67%	+0.49u	4	75%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 685, 14d N 58	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 565, 14d N 25	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 3	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 859 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 235 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 825 pitcher(s), 3688 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 616 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1097 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 420 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks, Athletics, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 26 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 374 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 30 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 28 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 24 line(s)/13 game(s); Walks 15 line(s)/8 game(s); Earned Runs 20 line(s)/11 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 111, betmgm 4, bovada_direct 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 354 market side(s) checked \| 354 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 659 \| batter bats 728 \| batter hand splits 137 \| pitcher HR splits 50 \| batter pitch-type 616 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow blocked: 183 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_INVALID

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox	2:11 PM	+119	-143	1.5 (-187)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles	4:06 PM	-132	+109	-1.5 (+128)	1.5 (-155)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	+117	-142	1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+155)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	+104	-126	1.5 (-200)	-1.5 (+164)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	+153	-186	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-138	+115	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	-101	-119	-1.5 (+166)	1.5 (-203)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers	7:06 PM	-125	+104	-1.5 (+140)	1.5 (-170)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	+100	-121	-1.5 (+167)	1.5 (-204)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:10 PM	-148	+122	-1.5 (+119)	1.5 (-143)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies	8:11 PM	-149	+124	-1.5 (-102)	1.5 (-119)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres	8:40 PM	+130	-158	1.5 (-169)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	+274	-351	1.5 (+119)	-1.5 (-143)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+160)	1.5 (-196)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 12 Grade B | 66 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Andrew Alvarez Over	NAT@CAR	7:16 PM	3.5	5.1	-165	BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 \| best price	46.4%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -171, expected IP 4.9 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Grant Holmes Over	BRA@AST	7:11 PM	3.5	4.7	-171	FanDuel Over 3.5 -164 \| best price	33.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 3.5 (-165) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-175	+134	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-165	+129	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-170	+132	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 46.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 9.3, proj 5.1K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 27.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.0%, L7 22.3%, season 20.7%, active roster 20.4%/14 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 27.3% vs season 23.2%, proj adj +2.1%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 3.5 (-171) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.6% / Under 40.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.83 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-171	+134	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-164	+128	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 33.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.6% / under 40.4%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); DK LOWER delta -0.40
Grant Holmes: K/9 6.3, proj 4.7K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 31.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 21.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.0%, L7 23.8%, season 21.8%, active roster 21.7%/14 hitters, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.79
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
A-tier gate: 60% consensus, but diff_pct 33.0% >= 21.3% and raw gap 1.16 >= 1.00

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -171, expected IP 4.9 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (12 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Sean Burke Under 5.5 (-134) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+110	-143	-
DK	5.5	+105	-134	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+116	-148	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.9% vs 17% min; cushion -1.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sean Burke: K/9 9.2, proj 4.4K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 58 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .712
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 58 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 22.3%, L7 19.2%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 13.8%/58 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Detroit Tigers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.5 ppts (recent 19.4% vs season 25.9%, proj adj -3.2%)

⚠ Matchup: Weather: -7% run env ✓ Under | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-129) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-129	-103	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.533 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 17.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.83 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .357 | OPS .899
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 17.4%, L7 22.7%, season 19.5%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 10.9%, L7 7.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/31 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 17.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cal Quantrill Under 5.5 (-113) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 30.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.72 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 0.97, BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .154 | OPS .407
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.3%, L7 18.6%, season 19.1%, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 29/31 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-150) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .452
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.9%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 5.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.73 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grant Holmes Over 1.5 (-115) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.264578855334594 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 21.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 20.0%, L7 23.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 10.0%, L7 7.4%, season 8.6%, BVP 21.1%/19 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-192) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -192 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8952492977380286 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.5% / under 61.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 79 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .277 | OPS .890
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.8%/79 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 7.4%, L7 7.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 12.7%/79 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/30 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-192); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-136) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 3.77)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 79 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .277 | OPS .890
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.8%/79 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joe Ryan Over 1.5 (-147) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.16 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.70, ERA 5.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.6% / under 44.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 67 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 1.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 28.2%, split 29.9%, L7 28.6%, season 25.5%, BVP 26.9%/67 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (-153) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 4.11)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 26.2%, split 23.3%, L7 32.5%, season 24.9% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-151) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 4.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 40 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .210 | OPS .592
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.0%, L7 15.1%, season 21.8%, BVP 27.5%/40 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-149) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.91 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.37, ERA 2.69)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 31 PA | K% 6.5% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.215
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.5%, L7 25.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 6.5%/31 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 16/30 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (-150) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.79, ERA 3.02)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.0%, L7 22.3%, season 20.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/23 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (66 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 25 play(s) (B 2 | C 23)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 (-155) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-155	+121	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-
BetMGM	5.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+126	-164	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.97K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); DK LOWER delta -0.40
Freddy Peralta: K/9 7.8, proj 5.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 79 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .277 | OPS .890
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.5%, active roster 22.1%/14 hitters, BVP 22.8%/79 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Boston Red Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 44%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.87
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 (-128) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-122	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tanner Bibee: K/9 7.4, proj 4.9K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .347 | OPS .727
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 19.2%, L7 22.4%, season 22.5%, active roster 22.6%/14 hitters, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 21%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/31 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.52
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cal Quantrill Over 3.5 (+112) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -175 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -175 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-175	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 18.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cal Quantrill: K/9 7.1, proj 4.2K over 5.8 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.4% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 19.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .154 | OPS .407
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.3%, L7 18.6%, season 19.1%, active roster 20.1%/14 hitters, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 18.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/31 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +2.29 vs season
K% trend: support +4.8 ppts (recent 23.3% vs season 18.5%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 97 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 5.5 (-118) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-106	-122	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-108	-118	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 16.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.92K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 9.1, proj 4.6K over 4.8 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 23.3%, L7 32.5%, season 24.9%, active roster 28.1%/13 hitters (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 32.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 28.1% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.84
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+114) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 16.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.88K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jose Soriano: K/9 8.0, proj 6.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.9% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 84 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .672
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 84 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.7%, L7 23.3%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.0%/14 hitters, BVP 20.2%/84 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 8/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; L7 team K% 23.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 5.30
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 4.5 (+107) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+107	-137	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-158	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Painter: K/9 8.1, proj 5.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 33.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.1%, L7 20.6%, season 22.4%, active roster 24.5%/14 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 23.4% vs season 19.7%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 4.5 (-109) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
DK	4.5	-109	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Miller: K/9 9.1, proj 5.0K over 4.9 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 25 PA | K% 32.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .625
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 21.5%, L7 18.8%, season 22.8%, active roster 23.6%/14 hitters, BVP 32.0%/25 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 36%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 5.30
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (-140) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-140	+110	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+110	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 11.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.5, proj 3.9K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Sweeper (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 21.5%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, active roster 22.9%/14 hitters, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.86
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 (+104) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 7.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 7.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	7.5	+104	-132	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+104	-132	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.3K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 10.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.82K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.3% / under 53.7%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tarik Skubal: K/9 10.6, proj 8.3K over 6.3 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.267 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.8%, L7 25.7%, season 21.6%, active roster 24.6%/14 hitters (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 22.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 14%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/24 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.21
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Joe Ryan Under 6.5 (-146) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+114	-146	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+116	-148	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 10.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Joe Ryan: K/9 8.8, proj 5.8K over 5.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Sweeper: 37.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 67 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 1.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .542
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.9%, split 29.9%, L7 28.6%, season 25.5%, active roster 26.5%/14 hitters, BVP 26.9%/67 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 28.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.84
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
K% trend: headwind -10.1 ppts (recent 15.8% vs season 25.9%, proj adj -5.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 (-146) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-146	+114	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matthew Boyd: K/9 6.8, proj 4.9K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 87 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .343 | OPS .973
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 87 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 25.3%, L7 24.6%, season 25.4%, active roster 25.2%/14 hitters, BVP 19.5%/87 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 37%; L7 team K% 24.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Over 5.5 (+127) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	-
DK	5.5	+127	-162	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+132	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Christian Scott: K/9 10.6, proj 5.9K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 40 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .210 | OPS .592
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.0%, L7 15.1%, season 21.8%, active roster 19.9%/14 hitters, BVP 27.5%/40 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 15.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 (-155) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+121	-155	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob Lopez: K/9 8.6, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 28 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .296 | OPS .914
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 17.0%, L7 17.4%, season 21.0%, active roster 19.2%/14 hitters, BVP 14.3%/28 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Cleveland Guardians 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 70%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 4.28
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +1.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 5.5 (+117) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+124	-161	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	-
DK	5.5	+117	-150	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+132	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Noah Cameron: K/9 7.8, proj 5.9K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .452
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.9%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Pittsburgh Pirates 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 22.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eury Perez Under 5.5 (-149) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+124	-161	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+117	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+130	-166	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eury Perez: K/9 9.6, proj 5.1K over 4.9 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.5% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 44 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .225 | OPS .645
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.7%, L7 18.7%, season 21.5%, active roster 22.0%/14 hitters, BVP 18.2%/44 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; San Diego Padres 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 18.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.74
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.3 ppts (recent 20.4% vs season 25.7%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 (-138) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.6, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.377 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 167 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .306 | OPS .896
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 167 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.1%, L7 14.0%, season 21.1%, active roster 22.0%/14 hitters, BVP 21.6%/167 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 14.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.16
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 (-106) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-106	-122	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-106	-120	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.5% / under 51.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Trevor Rogers: K/9 8.8, proj 5.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 36 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .273 | OPS .760
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.1%, L7 20.3%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.4%/14 hitters, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.49 vs season
K% trend: support +6.0 ppts (recent 27.8% vs season 21.8%, proj adj +3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Casey Mize Under 4.5 (-135) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Casey Mize: K/9 6.8, proj 4.3K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Split-Finger: 28.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .263 | OPS .668
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 18.7%, L7 25.5%, season 21.9%, active roster 23.2%/14 hitters, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Miami Marlins 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 25.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 4.46
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.46 vs season
K% trend: headwind -9.2 ppts (recent 11.8% vs season 21.0%, proj adj -4.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Jobe Over 4.5 (-110) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-109	-119	-
DK	4.5	-110	-116	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jackson Jobe: K/9 8.9, proj 4.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 26.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 33 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .345 | OPS 1.079
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 25.2%, L7 28.6%, season 24.2%, active roster 26.1%/14 hitters, BVP 18.2%/33 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 25.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 28.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/7 (29%) | L20 2/7 (29%) | Season 2/7 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.86 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: K L10: 2/7 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Under 4.5 (-133) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+105	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.1% / under 53.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 7.4, proj 4.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 39 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .139 | OPS .455
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.6%, L7 21.2%, season 21.7%, active roster 22.8%/13 hitters, BVP 10.3%/39 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/9 (67%) | L20 6/9 (67%) | Season 6/9 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.22 | Season Avg 4.22
Prop trend: K L10: 6/9 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 (+123) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 6.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	5.5	-160	+124	Recommended
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	6.5	+115	-149	-
DK	6.5	+123	-157	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 2.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.0, proj 6.7K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.263 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 18.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.90x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .357 | OPS .899
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 17.4%, L7 22.7%, season 19.5%, active roster 20.4%/14 hitters, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/31 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.30 | Season Avg 7.35
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 105 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.90) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Under 4.5 (-125) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-105	-123	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 6.4, proj 4.4K over 5.9 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .283 | OPS 1.007
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.1%, L7 22.3%, season 24.5%, active roster 24.9%/14 hitters, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.11
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reid Detmers Under 6.5 (-111) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	6.5	-108	-120	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-115	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-115	-111	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reid Detmers: K/9 9.9, proj 6.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Curveball: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 31 PA | K% 6.5% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.215
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.5%, L7 25.8%, season 21.2%, active roster 23.8%/14 hitters, BVP 6.5%/31 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Minnesota Twins 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 25.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/30 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.63
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 (+117) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -175 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -175 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-175	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+117	-149	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Bubba Chandler: K/9 8.2, proj 4.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Changeup (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 27.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.5%, L7 26.7%, season 20.9%, active roster 20.4%/14 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 26.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.55
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Boyd Under 4.5 (+110) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.4% / under 44.6%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 6.8, proj 4.5K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 21.1%, L7 14.0%, season 21.1%, active roster 22.0%/14 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 14.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 (+113) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 21.817999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 17.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.65 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 109)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 109
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 23.8%, L7 25.7%, season 21.6% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 6.2%, L7 9.2%, season 7.4% (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/24 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.20 | Season Avg 18.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Over 17.5 (-193) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -193

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
DK	17.5	-193	+144	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+134	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.799999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.37 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.6% / under 38.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 31 PA | K% 6.5% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.215
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.5%, L7 25.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 6.5%/31 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 6.8%, L7 5.6%, season 8.4%, BVP 16.1%/31 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 17.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.30 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.30 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael McGreevy Under 17.5 (-120) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-111	-120	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-118	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.08 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.5%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 12.0%, L7 9.3%, season 9.0%, BVP 0.0%/25 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 20.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 16.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (+129) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +129

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-172	+129	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.512 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.50 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .347 | OPS .727
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.2%, L7 22.4%, season 22.5%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.4%, L7 7.2%, season 8.6%, BVP 2.0%/50 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 12/31 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jose Soriano Over 17.5 (-138) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-138	+104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-136	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.118 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.76 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 84 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.7%, L7 23.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.2%/84 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 7.9%, L7 9.4%, season 8.8%, BVP 8.3%/84 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/30 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 16.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 17.5 (-154) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
DK	17.5	-154	+116	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-152	+112	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.35 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .283 | OPS 1.007
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.3%, season 24.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 11.1%, L7 8.0%, season 9.6%, BVP 3.6%/55 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.50 | Season Avg 13.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +5.72 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Over 17.5 (-133) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.786 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.02 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 36 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .273 | OPS .760
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.1%, L7 20.3%, season 21.6%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.1%, L7 10.8%, season 10.7%, BVP 5.6%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 16.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cal Quantrill Under 17.5 (-128) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.214 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.38 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .154 | OPS .407
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.3%, L7 18.6%, season 19.1%, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 6.8%, L7 10.2%, season 7.5%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 23/31 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 10.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +6.08 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 (-160) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.43, BB% 11.0%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 28 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .296 | OPS .914
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 17.0%, L7 17.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 14.3%/28 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 (+110) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.57, BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 167 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .306 | OPS .896
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 21.1%, L7 14.0%, season 21.1%, BVP 21.6%/167 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (-140) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 87 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .343 | OPS .973
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 25.3%, L7 24.6%, season 25.4%, BVP 19.5%/87 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Over 5.5 (-125) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .283 | OPS 1.007
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.3%, season 24.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Under 5.5 (-144) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+109	-144	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.5%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-124) Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 5.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 36 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .273 | OPS .760
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.1%, L7 20.3%, season 21.6%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bubba Chandler Over 1.5 (-107) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6217455905486875 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 74.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.51 over 4.8 IP (BB% 11.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.5%, L7 26.7%, season 20.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.4%, L7 9.8%, season 8.6% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-105) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1541801716727256 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 40 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .210 | OPS .592
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.0%, L7 15.1%, season 21.8%, BVP 27.5%/40 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.6%, L7 10.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.0%/40 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Joe Ryan Under 1.5 (-232) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -232

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -232 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.157868008084948 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 4.8 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 34.5% / under 65.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 67 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 1.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 28.2%, split 29.9%, L7 28.6%, season 25.5%, BVP 26.9%/67 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 12.5%, L7 10.7%, season 8.3%, BVP 1.5%/67 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Painter Over 1.5 (-171) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8085437615147162 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.1% / under 40.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.1%, L7 20.6%, season 22.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 6.9%, L7 8.2%, season 8.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cal Quantrill Under 1.5 (-207) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2485233660314163 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.5 IP (BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.9% / under 63.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .154 | OPS .407
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.3%, L7 18.6%, season 19.1%, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 6.8%, L7 10.2%, season 7.5%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 25/31 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Noah Cameron Over 1.5 (-115) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7234067594959845 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.9% / under 50.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .452
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.9%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 8.3%, L7 8.9%, season 9.1% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (+118) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7148053718242906 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 39 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .139 | OPS .455
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.6%, L7 21.2%, season 21.7%, BVP 10.3%/39 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 7.6%, L7 8.1%, season 7.7%, BVP 7.7%/39 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/9 (78%) | L20 7/9 (78%) | Season 7/9 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.78 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/9 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Over 1.5 (-166) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.631196337975971 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.5%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 12.0%, L7 9.3%, season 9.0%, BVP 0.0%/25 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-116) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.578976720705806 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 31 PA | K% 6.5% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.215
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.5%, L7 25.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 6.5%/31 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 6.8%, L7 5.6%, season 8.4%, BVP 16.1%/31 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/30 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-201) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -201 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -201 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.409206365807113 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 5.5 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.5% / under 62.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 84 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.7%, L7 23.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.2%/84 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 7.9%, L7 9.4%, season 8.8%, BVP 8.3%/84 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (-199) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -199 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -199 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4314020965546637 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 4.8 IP (BB% 11.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.7% / under 62.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.0%, L7 22.3%, season 20.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 10.7%, L7 8.6%, season 8.4% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trevor Rogers Over 1.5 (+106) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5382314095658396 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 36 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .273 | OPS .760
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.1%, L7 20.3%, season 21.6%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.1%, L7 10.8%, season 10.7%, BVP 5.6%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robert Gasser Under 1.5 (-215) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4669334151440871 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.5 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.0% / under 64.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 26.2%, split 23.3%, L7 32.5%, season 24.9% (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.1%, L7 6.8%, season 9.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 under 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 14 play(s) (C 14)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-160) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.16 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.56, ERA 2.93)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 21.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .635
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 20.0%, L7 23.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Under 2.5 (-157) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 3.41)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 39 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .139 | OPS .455
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.6%, L7 21.2%, season 21.7%, BVP 10.3%/39 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.22 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/9 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Under 2.5 (-151) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 3.28)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.8% / under 56.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .452
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.9%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 2.5 (-111) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.32 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 4.57)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 55 PA | K% 16.4% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .283 | OPS 1.007
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.3%, season 24.5%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 8/27 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Under 2.5 (-166) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.32, ERA 4.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .263 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.7%, L7 25.5%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 (-142) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 2.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .154 | OPS .407
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.3%, L7 18.6%, season 19.1%, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 26/31 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (-102) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.3% / under 52.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 25 PA | K% 8.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.5%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 8.0%/25 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/29 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (+104) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.14 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.83, ERA 1.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .357 | OPS .899
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 17.4%, L7 22.7%, season 19.5%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 23/31 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 (-101) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.36 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 2.65, ERA 2.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 23.8%, L7 25.7%, season 21.6% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Over 2.5 (+108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.98 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 4.36)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 36 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .273 | OPS .760
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 23.1%, L7 20.3%, season 21.6%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (+103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.62 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 4.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.1%, L7 20.6%, season 22.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 3.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-157) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.76, ERA 4.14)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 84 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.7%, L7 23.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.2%/84 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 16/30 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-153) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 5.57)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 44 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .225 | OPS .645
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.7%, L7 18.7%, season 21.5%, BVP 18.2%/44 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Under 2.5 (-174) Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.74, ERA 4.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.5%, L7 26.7%, season 20.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants	68.5	68.9	74.0	5	Changeup (47% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks	68.3	66.8	76.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (35% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	63.2	62.7	68.0	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	57.7	58.8	59.0	6	Sweeper (32% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians	56.1	48.3	62.5	5	Slider (29% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	56.0	61.4	51.5	6	Slider (43% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	55.5	53.1	59.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies	55.2	51.6	59.0	7	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	54.8	49.5	60.5	5	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	54.4	53.4	56.0	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves	54.1	48.6	59.0	5	Sweeper (38% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	54.1	54.0	56.5	6	Slider (33% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers	53.7	48.1	59.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	53.1	53.5	54.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	52.4	60.4	46.5	5	Curveball (43% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals	50.8	54.7	50.0	5	Slider (34% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees	49.3	43.6	56.0	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics	48.2	48.4	48.5	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	47.3	49.0	44.0	7	Slider (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	47.3	48.2	45.5	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals	47.2	44.4	49.5	6	Changeup (25% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles	46.5	42.9	50.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	45.8	38.4	55.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros	44.8	51.1	39.5	6	Slider (40% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	44.0	44.4	42.0	5	Slider (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jose Quintana	Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners	38.4	35.7	36.0	5	Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 10.5%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals	36.4	39.8	33.0	7	Sweeper (28% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	33.9	43.5	19.0	4	Curveball (42% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.377, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees	R	16.7%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians	L	21.5%	5.2	4.8	4.9	87	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros	R	16.7%	4.8	4.9	4.9	80	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	23.9%	6.3	5.6	6.0	106	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	L	18.3%	5.8	5.7	5.8	97	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	R	23.6%	4.1	5.2	5.0	69	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	L	18.4%	4.9	5.1	5.0	82	short	full	19.00	81.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics	R	19.4%	5.3	5.7	5.6	89	normal	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jose Quintana	Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners	L	14.7%	4.3	4.6	4.6	72	short	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	R	23.1%	5.1	5.0	5.2	86	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves	R	20.1%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	21.2%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	L	28.0%	6.2	5.8	6.0	104	deep	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants	L	30.2%	6.5	6.1	6.2	109	deep	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	R	23.9%	4.2	5.3	5.1	70	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles	L	22.5%	4.3	5.1	4.9	72	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	22.4%	4.6	5.3	5.2	77	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	27.2%	5.1	4.8	4.8	86	short	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	31.9%	6.4	6.0	6.0	107	deep	full	76.00	24.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	R	21.0%	6.0	5.0	5.2	101	deep	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals	R	21.3%	5.1	5.1	5.1	86	short	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	R	17.8%	4.3	5.1	5.0	72	short	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies	R	23.1%	4.1	5.4	5.1	69	short	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals	R	17.2%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	R	21.0%	6.0	5.2	5.4	101	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	20.2%	6.2	5.4	5.5	104	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.1%
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	R	20.9%	5.9	5.6	5.7	99	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	24.6%	5.3	5.0	5.1	89	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	20.5	3.0	17.3%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	21.8	3.3	17.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	19.8	2.3	13.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.30 <= 3 min
Michael McGreevy	Michael McGreevy Under	Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.1	-1.4	8.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jose Soriano	Jose Soriano Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Pfaadt	Brandon Pfaadt Over	New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	18.0	0.5	2.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Over	Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cal Quantrill	Cal Quantrill Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.5	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.