MLB Full Audit
MLB Full Audit
Saturday, September 19 2026
MARKET TRUST TIERS
18 market(s) with settled tracker history| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 685 | 55% | -33.56u | 58 | 48% | -10.37u | 322 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 565 | 57% | +3.69u | 25 | 52% | -2.50u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 786 | 55% | -52.46u | 93 | 46% | -21.43u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 531 | 63% | +7.46u | 67 | 69% | +6.27u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 138 | 49% | -13.65u | 3 | 67% | +0.49u | 4 | 75% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA
What each market needs to move stages| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS
28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | 68.5 | 68.9 | 74.0 | 5 | Changeup (47% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 68.3 | 66.8 | 76.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (35% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | 63.2 | 62.7 | 68.0 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | 57.7 | 58.8 | 59.0 | 6 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians | 56.1 | 48.3 | 62.5 | 5 | Slider (29% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres | 56.0 | 61.4 | 51.5 | 6 | Slider (43% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | 55.5 | 53.1 | 59.5 | 6 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies | 55.2 | 51.6 | 59.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (33% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Mize | San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | 54.8 | 49.5 | 60.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (31% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | 54.4 | 53.4 | 56.0 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Hayden Wesneski | Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | 54.1 | 48.6 | 59.0 | 5 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | 54.1 | 54.0 | 56.5 | 6 | Slider (33% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers | 53.7 | 48.1 | 59.5 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.1 | 53.5 | 54.5 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers | 52.4 | 60.4 | 46.5 | 5 | Curveball (43% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals | 50.8 | 54.7 | 50.0 | 5 | Slider (34% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees | 49.3 | 43.6 | 56.0 | 6 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | 48.2 | 48.4 | 48.5 | 6 | Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 47.3 | 49.0 | 44.0 | 7 | Slider (37% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | 47.3 | 48.2 | 45.5 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals | 47.2 | 44.4 | 49.5 | 6 | Changeup (25% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles | 46.5 | 42.9 | 50.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | 45.8 | 38.4 | 55.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros | 44.8 | 51.1 | 39.5 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | 44.0 | 44.4 | 42.0 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jose Quintana | Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | 38.4 | 35.7 | 36.0 | 5 | Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 10.5%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals | 36.4 | 39.8 | 33.0 | 7 | Sweeper (28% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | 33.9 | 43.5 | 19.0 | 4 | Curveball (42% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.377, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS
28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees | R | 16.7% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 21.5% | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 87 | normal | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros | R | 16.7% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 23.9% | 6.3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 106 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 18.3% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 97 | normal | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | R | 23.6% | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 69 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | L | 18.4% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 82 | short | full | 19.00 | 81.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | R | 19.4% | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 89 | normal | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jose Quintana | Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | L | 14.7% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 72 | short | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | R | 23.1% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Hayden Wesneski | Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | R | 20.1% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 21.2% | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | L | 28.0% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tarik Skubal | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | L | 30.2% | 6.5 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 109 | deep | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres | R | 23.9% | 4.2 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 70 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 22.5% | 4.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 72 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 22.4% | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 77 | short | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 27.2% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 86 | short | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 31.9% | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 107 | deep | full | 76.00 | 24.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | R | 21.0% | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 101 | deep | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals | R | 21.3% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Casey Mize | San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | R | 17.8% | 4.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 72 | short | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies | R | 23.1% | 4.1 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 69 | short | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals | R | 17.2% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 33.00 | 67.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Freddy Peralta | Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | R | 21.0% | 6.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 101 | deep | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 20.2% | 6.2 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 104 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.1% |
| José Soriano | Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers | R | 20.9% | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 99 | normal | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 24.6% | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 89 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE
9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 20.5 | 3.0 | 17.3% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | deep | 6.0 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Over | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 18.5 | 21.8 | 3.3 | 17.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 109 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books) |
| Reid Detmers | Reid Detmers Over | Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 19.8 | 2.3 | 13.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.30 <= 3 min |
| Michael McGreevy | Michael McGreevy Under | Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | 8.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Tanner Bibee | Tanner Bibee Under | Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Jose Soriano | Jose Soriano Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 18.1 | 0.6 | 3.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Brandon Pfaadt Over | New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 2.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Trevor Rogers | Trevor Rogers Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 1.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cal Quantrill | Cal Quantrill Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.5 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES
80 candidates evaluated| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ Featured | ⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Andrew Alvarez Over | NAT@CAR | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 5.1 | -165 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | best price | 46.4% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -171, expected IP 4.9 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | BRA@AST | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.7 | -171 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -164 | best price | 33.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Weather: -7% run env ✓ Under | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+… | K Prop | Sean Burke Under | TIG@SOX | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -134 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 19.9% | ✓✓!!–✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | YAN@DIA | 8:10 PM | 17.5 | 20.5 | -129 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -125 | best price | 17.3% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Cal Quantrill Under | JAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 3.8 | -113 | DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact | 30.9% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Cameron Under | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -150 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 23.6% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Grant Holmes Over | BRA@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -115 | DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact | 51.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-192); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Freddy Peralta Under | SOX@RAY | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -192 | DK Under 2.5 -192 | exact | 24.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Freddy Peralta Over | SOX@RAY | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -136 | DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Joe Ryan Over | TWI@ANG | 9:38 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -147 | DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Gasser Over | BRE@ORI | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -153 | DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Christian Scott Over | PHI@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -151 | DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Reid Detmers Over | TWI@ANG | 9:38 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -149 | DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Alvarez Under | NAT@CAR | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Cal Quantrill Over | JAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | +112 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -175 | alt rescue | 18.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@ORI | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -118 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 16.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | JAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | +114 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 16.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Painter Over | PHI@MET | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | +107 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +124 | best price | 14.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -109 | DK Over 4.5 -109 | exact | 12.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael McGreevy Over | NAT@CAR | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -140 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -120 | best price | 11.0% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | GIA@DOD | 9:11 PM | 7.5 | 8.3 | +104 | BetMGM Over 7.5 +115 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Joe Ryan Under | TWI@ANG | 9:38 PM | 6.5 | 5.8 | -146 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price | 10.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -146 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -123 | best price | 9.0% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Christian Scott Over | PHI@MET | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +127 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +132 | best price | 6.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jacob Lopez Under | ATH@GUA | 6:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -155 | theScore Bet Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 6.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Cameron Over | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +117 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +132 | best price | 6.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eury Perez Under | MAR@PAD | 8:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -149 | DK Under 5.5 -149 | exact | 6.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Lodolo Under | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -138 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -135 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor Rogers Over | BRE@ORI | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -106 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 | best price | 5.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Casey Mize Under | MAR@PAD | 8:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -135 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -128 | best price | 4.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jackson Jobe Over | TIG@SOX | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -110 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price | 4.4% | ✓✗✗!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Hayden Wesneski Under | BRA@AST | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -133 | DK Under 4.5 -133 | exact | 4.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Over | YAN@DIA | 8:10 PM | 6.5 | 6.7 | +123 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -160 | alt rescue | 2.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Pfaadt Under | YAN@DIA | 8:10 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -125 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -115 | best price | 1.6% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Reid Detmers Under | TWI@ANG | 9:38 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -111 | DK Under 6.5 -111 | exact | 1.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bubba Chandler Over | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +117 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -175 | alt rescue | 1.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matt Boyd Under | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +110 | Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +110 | exact | 0.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Over | GIA@DOD | 9:11 PM | 18.5 | 21.8 | +113 | DK Over 18.5 +113 | exact | 17.9% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.30 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Reid Detmers Over | TWI@ANG | 9:38 PM | 17.5 | 19.8 | -193 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price | 13.1% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael McGreevy Under | NAT@CAR | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 16.1 | -120 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -118 | best price | 8.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tanner Bibee Under | ATH@GUA | 6:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | +129 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +130 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jose Soriano Over | JAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.1 | -138 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -136 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Pfaadt Over | YAN@DIA | 8:10 PM | 17.5 | 18.0 | -154 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -152 | best price | 2.8% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Trevor Rogers Over | BRE@ORI | 4:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -133 | DK Over 17.5 -133 | exact | 1.6% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cal Quantrill Under | JAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | -128 | DK Under 17.5 -128 | exact | 1.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jacob Lopez Under | ATH@GUA | 6:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -160 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Lodolo Over | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +110 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Boyd Under | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -140 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brandon Pfaadt Over | YAN@DIA | 8:10 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -125 | DK Over 5.5 -125 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael McGreevy Under | NAT@CAR | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -144 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor Rogers Under | BRE@ORI | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -124 | DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Bubba Chandler Over | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -107 | DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact | 74.8% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Christian Scott Over | PHI@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -105 | DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact | 43.6% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Joe Ryan Under | TWI@ANG | 9:38 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -232 | DK Under 1.5 -232 | exact | 22.8% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Painter Over | PHI@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -171 | DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact | 20.6% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Cal Quantrill Under | JAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -207 | DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact | 16.8% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Noah Cameron Over | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -115 | DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact | 14.9% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Hayden Wesneski Over | BRA@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +118 | DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact | 14.3% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael McGreevy Over | NAT@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -166 | DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Reid Detmers Over | TWI@ANG | 9:38 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -116 | DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact | 5.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jose Soriano Under | JAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -201 | DK Under 2.5 -201 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Alvarez Under | NAT@CAR | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -199 | DK Under 2.5 -199 | exact | 2.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Trevor Rogers Over | BRE@ORI | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +106 | DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact | 2.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@ORI | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -215 | DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact | 2.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Grant Holmes Under | BRA@AST | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -160 | DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Hayden Wesneski Under | BRA@AST | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -157 | DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Cameron Under | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -151 | DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Pfaadt Over | YAN@DIA | 8:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -111 | DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Casey Mize Under | MAR@PAD | 8:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -166 | DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cal Quantrill Under | JAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -142 | DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael McGreevy Over | NAT@CAR | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -102 | DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cam Schlittler Under | YAN@DIA | 8:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | +104 | DK Under 1.5 +104 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tarik Skubal Over | GIA@DOD | 9:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -101 | DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor Rogers Over | BRE@ORI | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +108 | DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Painter Over | PHI@MET | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +103 | DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Soriano Under | JAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -157 | DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Under | MAR@PAD | 8:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bubba Chandler Under | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -174 | DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Over | SOX@RAY | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -155 | DK Over 4.5 -155 | exact | 21.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Over | ATH@GUA | 6:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -128 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price | 8.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context