MLB Bets 2026-09-18

Current generated report

Odds data use · 263 / 500 requests used (237 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	149W–126L–0P	54%	-27.23 u	Last 14 days • 275 settled
Grade A	17W–12L–0P	59%	-0.46 u
Grade B	132W–114L–0P	54%	-26.76 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3954W–2511L–8P	61%	-286.37 u	All-time • 6473 settled
Grade A	292W–230L–0P	56%	-13.44 u
Grade B	3660W–2272L–8P	62%	-266.49 u

98 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Corbin Burnes (ARIZ)	3.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	K Prop	Andrew Sears	3.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	K Prop	Bryan Woo	4.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	K Prop	Chase Burns	3.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	K Prop	Eduardo Rodriguez	4.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	K Prop	Ian Seymour	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	K Prop	Zach Thornton	3.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Chase Burns	0.5	-193	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Clay Holmes	2.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Dustin May	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Gerrit Cole	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Kyle Leahy	0.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Tyler Phillips	2.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Hits Allow	Randy Dobnak	5.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Walks	Peter Lambert	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Walks	Randy Dobnak	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-18	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Mahle	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-17	K Prop	Kyle Harrison	4.5	-150	-	LOSS	-1.000	Kyle Harrison: 2.0 (line 4.5)
2026-09-17	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-139	-	WIN	+0.719	Walbert Ureña: 9.0 (line 4.5)
2026-09-17	K Prop	Taj Bradley	6.5	-136	-	WIN	+0.735	Taj Bradley: 9.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	679	55%	-32.52u	55	51%	-6.83u	320	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	564	57%	+4.69u	28	50%	-3.67u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	779	55%	-55.53u	98	47%	-21.20u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	528	63%	+8.69u	69	70%	+7.59u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	138	49%	-13.65u	4	75%	+1.49u	4	75%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 23 total candidate(s); season N 679, 14d N 55	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 564, 14d N 28	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 27 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 27/27 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 4	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 856 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 235 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 822 pitcher(s), 3676 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 615 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 27 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 27 SP matchup(s), 767 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 420 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Colorado Rockies, Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Athletics, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres, New York Mets
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins, Athletics, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 24 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 373 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 26 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 26 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 25 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 6 line(s)/3 game(s); Earned Runs 27 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 107, betmgm 3
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 340 market side(s) checked \| 340 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 659 \| batter bats 728 \| batter hand splits 136 \| pitcher HR splits 48 \| batter pitch-type 615 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow blocked: 165 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_INVALID

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+123)	1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+157	-191	1.5 (-138)	-1.5 (+114)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-144	+119	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	+162	-198	1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	+105	-126	1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	+102	-123	-1.5 (+169)	1.5 (-206)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-187)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+123)	1.5 (-149)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-121	+100	-1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-164)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies	8:11 PM	-186	+153	-1.5 (-118)	1.5 (-102)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+156)	1.5 (-190)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-124	+103	-1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-163)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-132	+109	-1.5 (+129)	1.5 (-156)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+168	-205	1.5 (-132)	-1.5 (+110)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:15 PM	+248	-313	1.5 (+118)	-1.5 (-143)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 15 Grade B | 52 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157	K Prop	Eduardo Rodriguez Over	YAN@DIA	9:41 PM	4.5	6.1	-157	BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 \| best price	35.1%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -144, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Chase Burns Over	CUB@RED	6:41 PM	3.5	6.7	-144	DK Over 3.5 -144 \| exact	92.4%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (5 play(s))

Pitcher Earned Runs - Chase Burns Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

K Prop - Nick Pivetta Under

Projection: 4.5Displayed: Under 4.5 +131Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 5Recommended: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -165 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Earned Runs - David Sandlin Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Ranger Suarez Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Connor Prielipp Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 (-157) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-152	+116	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 35.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 7.7, proj 6.1K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 103 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .191 | OPS .572
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 103 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.6%, L7 21.6%, season 24.6%, active roster 25.0%/14 hitters, BVP 34.0%/103 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/30 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
K% trend: support +5.3 ppts (recent 23.6% vs season 18.3%, proj adj +2.6%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157 -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Chase Burns Over 3.5 (-144) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.6% / Under 44.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.7 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-175	+130	-
DK	3.5	-144	+112	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-155	+110	-
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 92.4% vs 17% min; cushion +3.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.6% / under 44.4%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta -0.25
Chase Burns: K/9 11.9, proj 6.7K over 4.8 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.9% | put-away% 21.4% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 31.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .226 | OPS .595
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.8%, L7 14.2%, season 21.1%, active roster 22.4%/14 hitters, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 14.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 25/28 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.46
Prop trend: K L10: 10/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 33.7% vs season 29.4%, proj adj +2.1%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -144, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

⚠ ⚠ High K diff 92% (≥90%) — verify K projection

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (15 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 3.5 (-161) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -161

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-161	+126	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-164	+128	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 40.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.2% / under 41.8%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, L7 17.0%, season 21.9%, active roster 20.0%/14 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.0% (14 hitters)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -161, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Andrew Sears Over 3.5 (-121) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 38.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.36K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Sears: K/9 8.0, proj 4.9K over 4.4 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Changeup (58% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.5%, L7 27.3%, season 24.2%, active roster 26.3%/14 hitters (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 24.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; L7 team K% 27.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.25 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Bryan Woo Over 4.5 (-142) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-142	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 29.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.1, proj 5.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .812
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.5%, L7 17.7%, season 22.8%, active roster 23.6%/14 hitters, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 36%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.82
Prop trend: K L10: 10/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -142, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.32K, diff 29.3%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 5.5 (-131) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-127	-102	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-131	+103	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-118	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 21.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ian Seymour: K/9 11.5, proj 6.7K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 36 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .151 | OPS .586
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.9%, L7 21.7%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters, BVP 25.0%/36 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Boston Red Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 44%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/44 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 3.41
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +3.69 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -131, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Randy Dobnak Under 5.5 (-127) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-104	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.27, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.2%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Randy Dobnak Over 1.5 (-129) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9151353116626737 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.2%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.6%, L7 8.4%, season 9.1% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Peter Lambert Over 1.5 (-156) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8992049640779822 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.2 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 50 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .239 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.5%, L7 19.6%, season 21.7%, BVP 18.0%/50 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.6%, L7 7.7%, season 7.7%, BVP 8.0%/50 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tyler Mahle Over 1.5 (-140) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8751133243344897 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .437
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.9%, L7 22.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.0%, L7 7.7%, season 8.6%, BVP 10.4%/67 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Over 0.5 (-193) diff 240.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-193	+144	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 240.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.42, ERA 3.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.6% / under 38.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .226 | OPS .595
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.8%, L7 14.2%, season 21.1%, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-193) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Over 0.5 (-118) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	-
DK	0.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.62 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 3.27)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 8.8 outs/2.9 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.6%, L7 23.8%, season 21.9%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Over 1.5 (-165) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.71, ERA 4.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 44 PA | K% 11.4% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.267
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 17.4%, L7 20.7%, season 19.5%, BVP 11.4%/44 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-165) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Dustin May Over 1.5 (-151) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
DK	1.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 4.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 29 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .346 | OPS .914
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 22.8%, L7 32.4%, season 24.9%, BVP 24.1%/29 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (-126) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+100	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.63 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.45, ERA 4.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 36 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .151 | OPS .586
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.9%, L7 21.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 25.0%/36 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/44 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Clay Holmes Under 2.5 (-152) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	-
DK	2.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.47 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.75, ERA 3.11)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 30 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .160 | OPS .460
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.4%, L7 25.3%, season 25.5%, BVP 16.7%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Under 2.5 (-155) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	-
DK	2.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 3.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.6%, L7 17.7%, season 21.5% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 29/35 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (52 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 17 play(s) (B 3 | C 14)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (+118) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 7.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 7.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	7.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	7.5	+120	-160	-
DK	7.5	+118	-150	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+120	-154	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 28.6% vs 17% min; cushion +2.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.2, proj 9.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 33.1% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.260 | top pitch: Changeup (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 110 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .247 | OPS .697
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 110 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 24.7%, L7 25.7%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.0%/14 hitters, BVP 31.8%/110 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 8/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; L7 team K% 25.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.10 | Season Avg 8.43
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 4.5 (-145) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-133	+103	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-145	+114	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-150	+118	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Peter Lambert: K/9 8.6, proj 4.8K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 25.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 50 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .239 | OPS .691
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.5%, L7 19.6%, season 21.7%, active roster 22.9%/13 hitters, BVP 18.0%/50 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.9% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 5.5 (-120) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-120	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-120	-106	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Paul Skenes: K/9 8.9, proj 5.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.6% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .111
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.4%, L7 24.7%, season 20.9%, active roster 20.3%/14 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 24.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 6.17
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
K% trend: headwind -10.8 ppts (recent 17.0% vs season 27.8%, proj adj -5.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (+104) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	3.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+104	-132	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 24.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.3% / under 53.7%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Phillips: K/9 8.0, proj 4.4K over 4.4 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.6%, L7 17.7%, season 21.5%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; San Diego Padres 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 17.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/35 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +1.26 vs season
K% trend: support +5.2 ppts (recent 24.1% vs season 18.9%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Randy Dobnak Over 3.5 (+102) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	3.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+102	-131	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 22.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.78K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.6% / under 53.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Randy Dobnak: K/9 6.7, proj 4.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.2%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Pittsburgh Pirates 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.62
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 19.5% vs season 16.3%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 4.5 (-119) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -119

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	-106	-122	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-107	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ranger Suarez: K/9 7.7, proj 3.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Curveball: 24.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 43 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .275 | OPS .651
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, split 15.6%, L7 18.8%, season 18.4%, active roster 18.6%/14 hitters, BVP 16.3%/43 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 18.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.7 ppts (recent 16.1% vs season 22.8%, proj adj -3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 (-104) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-101	-128	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-104	-122	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.50K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.1% / under 51.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Mahle: K/9 7.7, proj 5.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Split-Finger (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .437
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.9%, L7 22.8%, season 21.7%, active roster 21.6%/14 hitters, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 (+132) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 4.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+132	-172	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+132	-170	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.39K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.6% / under 59.4%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Kumar Rocker: K/9 9.3, proj 4.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .174 | OPS .405
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 19.1%, active roster 20.2%/14 hitters, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 25.2% vs season 21.7%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Glasnow Under 6.5 (+116) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:15 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-145	+111	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-150	+115	-
DK	6.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-150	+118	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Glasnow: K/9 11.0, proj 6.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 25.0% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: Curveball (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Curveball: 22.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 25 PA | K% 16.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .584
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.6%, L7 23.9%, season 21.4%, active roster 24.0%/14 hitters, BVP 16.0%/25 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; San Francisco Giants 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 14%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 under 6.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 (-103) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-132	+102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-124	-103	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.2% / under 47.8%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gerrit Cole: K/9 8.7, proj 4.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 44 PA | K% 11.4% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.267
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.4%, L7 20.7%, season 19.5%, active roster 20.2%/14 hitters, BVP 11.4%/44 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 20.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/20 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.85
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Cavalli Under 6.5 (-131) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -131

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+103	-131	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+118	-150	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cade Cavalli: K/9 11.7, proj 6.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 25.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 40 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .182 | OPS .628
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.4%, L7 20.5%, season 20.7%, active roster 21.5%/14 hitters, BVP 15.0%/40 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 15/31 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 6.26
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.24 vs season
K% trend: support +11.2 ppts (recent 39.4% vs season 28.2%, proj adj +5.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Sandlin Over 4.5 (+119) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -185 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -185 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 4.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-185	+135	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
David Sandlin: K/9 8.9, proj 4.7K over 4.9 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Cutter (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Cutter: 23.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.4%, L7 18.3%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.6%/14 hitters (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Detroit Tigers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.83 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Clay Holmes Under 4.5 (-111) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-108	-120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Clay Holmes: K/9 7.1, proj 4.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Cutter (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Cutter: 21.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 30 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .160 | OPS .460
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.4%, L7 25.3%, season 25.5%, active roster 25.4%/14 hitters, BVP 16.7%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 25.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 37%; L7 team K% 25.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 4.5 (-110) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -110

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-116	-110	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-108	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 8.1, proj 4.4K over 5.2 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.356 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 30.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 34 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .393 | OPS 1.113
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.9%, L7 26.2%, season 21.2%, active roster 23.2%/14 hitters, BVP 11.8%/34 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Minnesota Twins 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dustin May Under 5.5 (-127) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-101	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.3% / under 52.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dustin May: K/9 8.7, proj 5.4K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Sweeper (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 29 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .346 | OPS .914
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 22.8%, L7 32.4%, season 24.9%, active roster 28.0%/13 hitters, BVP 24.1%/29 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 32.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 28.0% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.75
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Pivetta Under 4.5 (+131) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +131

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 4.5 +131; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
DK	4.5	-167	+131	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	-170	+130	-
BetMGM	5.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 59.1% / under 40.9%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK LOWER delta -0.60
Nick Pivetta: K/9 9.9, proj 4.5K over 4.5 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.263 | top pitch: Sweeper (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 5 PA | K% 80.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.8%, L7 24.0%, season 21.9%, active roster 23.3%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Miami Marlins 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 24.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.17 | Season Avg 5.17
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Connor Prielipp Under 5.5 (-106) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-120	-106	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Connor Prielipp: K/9 8.9, proj 5.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 37.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 25.0%, L7 29.0%, season 25.4%, active roster 27.1%/14 hitters (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 25.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 29.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 27.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-171) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
DK	17.5	-171	+128	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.712 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 110 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .247 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.7%, L7 25.7%, season 22.8%, BVP 31.8%/110 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 7.7%, L7 7.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 10.9%/110 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 17.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.21 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.21 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Peter Lambert Under 17.5 (-137) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	+103	-137	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-106	-128	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 15.597 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.44 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 50 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .239 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.5%, L7 19.6%, season 21.7%, BVP 18.0%/50 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.6%, L7 7.7%, season 7.7%, BVP 8.0%/50 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 16.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Over 17.5 (-162) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+120	-
DK	17.5	-162	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.113 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.65 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .812
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.5%, L7 17.7%, season 22.8%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.4%, split 8.0%, L7 6.3%, season 8.3%, BVP 0.0%/16 PA (adj 0.86x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Ranger Suarez Under 17.5 (-115) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-115	-115	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-120	-112	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.437 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.66 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 43 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .275 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 15.6%, L7 18.8%, season 18.4%, BVP 16.3%/43 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.4%, L7 8.6%, season 8.4%, BVP 7.0%/43 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.70 | Season Avg 15.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.18 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tyler Mahle Over 17.5 (-113) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-113	-117	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.278999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.82 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .437
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.9%, L7 22.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.0%, L7 7.7%, season 8.6%, BVP 10.4%/67 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/25 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 16.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 17.5 (-124) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
DK	17.5	-107	-124	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-112	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.197 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.36 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 103 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .191 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.6%, L7 21.6%, season 24.6%, BVP 34.0%/103 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 8.1%, L7 7.7%, season 9.6%, BVP 12.6%/103 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 11/30 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 17.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Under 17.5 (-119) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-111	-119	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.336000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.41 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .111
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.4%, L7 24.7%, season 20.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.4%, L7 10.4%, season 8.6% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 16.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cade Cavalli Under 17.5 (-117) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-115	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-113	-117	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.493 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 40 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .182 | OPS .628
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.4%, L7 20.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 15.0%/40 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 8.8%, L7 9.3%, season 8.4%, BVP 12.5%/40 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 13/31 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 15.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +2.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-136) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 103 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .191 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.6%, L7 21.6%, season 24.6%, BVP 34.0%/103 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 (+121) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+121	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.14 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.56, BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.4% / under 57.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 34 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .393 | OPS 1.113
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.9%, L7 26.2%, season 21.2%, BVP 11.8%/34 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-137) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, L7 17.0%, season 21.9% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-117) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-114	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 43 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .275 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 15.6%, L7 18.8%, season 18.4%, BVP 16.3%/43 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (+165) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +165

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8762690352361258 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 35.4% / under 64.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .226 | OPS .595
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.8%, L7 14.2%, season 21.1%, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.1%, L7 10.8%, season 10.7%, BVP 6.1%/33 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Clay Holmes Under 2.5 (-188) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -188

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1051528180896586 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.3 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.9% / under 61.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 30 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .160 | OPS .460
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.4%, L7 25.3%, season 25.5%, BVP 16.7%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 10.8%, L7 5.7%, season 9.3%, BVP 6.7%/30 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-103) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.590570184205891 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .111
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.4%, L7 24.7%, season 20.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.4%, L7 10.4%, season 8.6% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 20 play(s) (C 20)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Daniel Espino Over 0.5 (+200) diff 100.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.0 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 100.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.05 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 2.66)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 2.0 IP/GS; recent 1.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 3.5 outs/1.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 31.0% / under 69.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.2%, L7 21.4%, season 22.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/11 (27%) | Season 3/11 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — David Sandlin Over 1.5 (-165) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.44 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.07, ERA 5.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 22.4%, L7 18.3%, season 22.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.17 | Season Avg 3.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 (-103) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.33 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.33, ERA 4.18)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 25 PA | K% 16.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .217 | OPS .584
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.6%, L7 23.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.0%/25 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-158) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.25 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.41, ERA 3.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .111
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.4%, L7 24.7%, season 20.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Under 2.5 (-175) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.46 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 3.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 43 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .275 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 15.6%, L7 18.8%, season 18.4%, BVP 16.3%/43 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Sears Under 2.5 (-139) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 4.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.5%, L7 27.3%, season 24.2% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 (-145) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.82, ERA 3.06)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .437
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.9%, L7 22.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-102) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.20 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.52, ERA 5.35)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 34 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .393 | OPS 1.113
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.9%, L7 26.2%, season 21.2%, BVP 11.8%/34 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Over 1.5 (-145) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
DK	1.5	-145	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.89 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.15, ERA 2.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.4% / under 44.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 40 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .182 | OPS .628
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.4%, L7 20.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 15.0%/40 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 22/31 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Dobnak Under 2.5 (-128) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-103	-128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.98 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 3.42)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 13 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .077
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.2%, L7 22.6%, season 24.1% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Under 2.5 (-115) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.41 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.65, ERA 3.47)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .812
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.5%, L7 17.7%, season 22.8%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Connor Prielipp Under 2.5 (-168) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 5.16)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
Opponent K profile: composite 26.2%, split 25.0%, L7 29.0%, season 25.4% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mason Barnett Over 2.5 (+126) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.00 over 3.9 IP (xFIP 4.70, ERA 7.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Mason Barnett: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 28.6% | AVG .000 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.8%, L7 16.9%, season 21.0% (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-154) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.53 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.28, ERA 4.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .174 | OPS .405
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 19.1%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-104) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.36, ERA 2.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 103 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 12.6% | AVG .191 | OPS .572
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.6%, L7 21.6%, season 24.6%, BVP 34.0%/103 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/30 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cesar Perdomo Under 2.5 (-123) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.17 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 4.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 19.2%, L7 15.9%, season 20.4% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 (-115) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-115	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.30 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 3.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.0 outs/5.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 5 PA | K% 80.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.8%, L7 24.0%, season 21.9% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.67 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Over 2.5 (-103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-120	-
DK	2.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.38 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 4.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 50 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .239 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.5%, L7 19.6%, season 21.7%, BVP 18.0%/50 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 8/26 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-160) Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+120	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, L7 17.0%, season 21.9% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (+101) Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.35 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 2.81, ERA 2.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 110 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .247 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.7%, L7 25.7%, season 22.8%, BVP 31.8%/110 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

27 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Daniel Espino	Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics	78.6	87.1	78.0	3	4-Seam Fastball (44% whiff, 62% usage)	Savant whiff 36.6%, put-away 30.1%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	72.6	74.5	77.5	6	Changeup (49% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 33.1%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	66.7	68.9	69.0	4	Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants	65.9	70.3	70.5	4	Curveball (52% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	63.3	55.0	71.0	4	Changeup (58% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals	62.8	60.4	67.5	7	Changeup (36% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	61.7	63.8	63.0	7	Changeup (40% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	60.3	50.3	76.0	6	Sweeper (42% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals	58.6	61.8	58.5	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies	55.4	52.2	62.0	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves	54.8	51.6	59.0	7	Changeup (33% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
David Sandlin	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	53.9	52.8	58.0	6	Cutter (28% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	51.8	46.8	59.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks	51.5	48.5	56.0	6	Slider (27% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	51.0	49.6	51.5	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros	50.9	50.7	52.5	5	Split-Finger (26% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles	49.1	50.4	49.0	6	Sweeper (28% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	48.9	55.1	43.0	6	Slider (42% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	48.1	44.6	54.0	6	Cutter (40% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	47.7	53.5	41.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cesar Perdomo	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers	46.2	53.1	47.0	3	Changeup (26% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees	45.3	42.9	49.0	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals	43.0	47.9	40.5	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians	41.9	46.5	32.5	5	Slider (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	41.5	38.1	45.0	5	Sweeper (33% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	41.2	38.5	43.0	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	39.8	46.3	29.5	4	Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

27 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees	L	20.2%	5.7	5.9	5.9	96	normal	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians	R	20.2%	3.7	4.0	4.8	62	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros	R	20.8%	6.1	5.5	5.6	102	deep	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	20.5%	5.8	5.3	5.4	97	normal	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	R	18.6%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
David Sandlin	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	R	22.9%	4.7	5.4	5.4	79	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	R	30.9%	3.9	5.4	5.1	65	short	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Daniel Espino	Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics	R	30.6%	1.4	2.0	4.6	24	short	full	78.00	22.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	L	20.2%	3.9	5.0	5.3	65	short	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.7%	5.1	5.6	5.5	86	short	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	17.9%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	R	20.0%	5.5	4.8	5.0	92	normal	full	29.50	70.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants	R	30.1%	4.6	5.6	5.4	77	short	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres	R	20.7%	3.9	4.6	4.4	65	short	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	22.4%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	L	23.2%	5.0	5.2	5.2	84	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	20.2%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	23.2%	5.6	5.8	5.7	94	normal	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals	R	24.0%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	R	28.0%	4.4	4.2	4.7	74	short	full	76.00	24.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Cesar Perdomo	San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	20.4%	4.7	5.3	5.5	79	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies	R	25.5%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals	R	25.8%	3.4	4.8	4.5	57	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	L	30.3%	5.1	4.8	4.8	86	short	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	22.9%	4.4	4.8	4.8	74	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	R	33.6%	5.6	5.9	6.0	94	normal	full	77.50	22.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	32.1%	5.6	5.3	5.4	94	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers	17.5	19.7	2.2	12.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.21 <= 3 min
Peter Lambert	Peter Lambert Under	Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros	17.5	15.6	-1.9	10.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Over	Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Ranger Suarez	Ranger Suarez Under	Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tyler Mahle	Tyler Mahle Over	Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.6	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Under	Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.3	-0.2	0.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cade Cavalli	Cade Cavalli Under	Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	17.5	-0.0	0.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.