MLB Full Audit
MLB Full Audit
Friday, September 18 2026
MARKET TRUST TIERS
18 market(s) with settled tracker history| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 679 | 55% | -32.52u | 55 | 51% | -6.83u | 320 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 564 | 57% | +4.69u | 28 | 50% | -3.67u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 779 | 55% | -55.53u | 98 | 47% | -21.20u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 528 | 63% | +8.69u | 69 | 70% | +7.59u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 138 | 49% | -13.65u | 4 | 75% | +1.49u | 4 | 75% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA
What each market needs to move stages| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS
27 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Espino | Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | 78.6 | 87.1 | 78.0 | 3 | 4-Seam Fastball (44% whiff, 62% usage) | Savant whiff 36.6%, put-away 30.1%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers | 72.6 | 74.5 | 77.5 | 6 | Changeup (49% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 33.1%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | 66.7 | 68.9 | 69.0 | 4 | Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | 65.9 | 70.3 | 70.5 | 4 | Curveball (52% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Sears | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | 63.3 | 55.0 | 71.0 | 4 | Changeup (58% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals | 62.8 | 60.4 | 67.5 | 7 | Changeup (36% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | 61.7 | 63.8 | 63.0 | 7 | Changeup (40% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Pivetta | San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | 60.3 | 50.3 | 76.0 | 6 | Sweeper (42% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals | 58.6 | 61.8 | 58.5 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies | 55.4 | 52.2 | 62.0 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | 54.8 | 51.6 | 59.0 | 7 | Changeup (33% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| David Sandlin | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | 53.9 | 52.8 | 58.0 | 6 | Cutter (28% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 51.8 | 46.8 | 59.0 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.5 | 48.5 | 56.0 | 6 | Slider (27% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | 51.0 | 49.6 | 51.5 | 5 | Curveball (38% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros | 50.9 | 50.7 | 52.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (26% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles | 49.1 | 50.4 | 49.0 | 6 | Sweeper (28% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | 48.9 | 55.1 | 43.0 | 6 | Slider (42% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | 48.1 | 44.6 | 54.0 | 6 | Cutter (40% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres | 47.7 | 53.5 | 41.5 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cesar Perdomo | San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 46.2 | 53.1 | 47.0 | 3 | Changeup (26% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees | 45.3 | 42.9 | 49.0 | 5 | Changeup (29% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals | 43.0 | 47.9 | 40.5 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mason Barnett | Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians | 41.9 | 46.5 | 32.5 | 5 | Slider (28% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 41.5 | 38.1 | 45.0 | 5 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | 41.2 | 38.5 | 43.0 | 7 | Sweeper (26% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | 39.8 | 46.3 | 29.5 | 4 | Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS
27 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees | L | 20.2% | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 96 | normal | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Mason Barnett | Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 20.2% | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 62 | short | full | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.7 IP/start |
| Tyler Mahle | Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros | R | 20.8% | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 102 | deep | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 20.5% | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 97 | normal | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.4% |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 18.6% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| David Sandlin | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | R | 22.9% | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 79 | short | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | R | 30.9% | 3.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 65 | short | full | 69.00 | 31.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Daniel Espino | Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics | R | 30.6% | 1.4 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 24 | short | full | 78.00 | 22.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start |
| Andrew Sears | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | L | 20.2% | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 65 | short | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | R | 21.7% | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 17.9% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | R | 20.0% | 5.5 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 92 | normal | full | 29.50 | 70.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | R | 30.1% | 4.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 77 | short | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres | R | 20.7% | 3.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 65 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 22.4% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 23.2% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 20.2% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 23.2% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals | R | 24.0% | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nick Pivetta | San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | R | 28.0% | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 74 | short | full | 76.00 | 24.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Cesar Perdomo | San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 20.4% | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 79 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies | R | 25.5% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals | R | 25.8% | 3.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 57 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.4 IP/start |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox | L | 30.3% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 86 | short | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 22.9% | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 74 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1% |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers | R | 33.6% | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 77.50 | 22.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 32.1% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 94 | normal | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE
8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 19.7 | 2.2 | 12.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.21 <= 3 min |
| Peter Lambert | Peter Lambert Under | Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 15.6 | -1.9 | 10.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Over | Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Under | Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 16.4 | -1.1 | 6.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Tyler Mahle | Tyler Mahle Over | Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 18.3 | 0.8 | 4.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.6 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Paul Skenes | Paul Skenes Under | Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 0.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cade Cavalli | Cade Cavalli Under | Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 17.5 | -0.0 | 0.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES
69 candidates evaluated| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ Featured | ⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157 | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | YAN@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 6.1 | -157 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 35.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -144, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 6.7 | -144 | DK Over 3.5 -144 | exact | 92.4% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -161, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Zach Thornton Over | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.9 | -161 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | best price | 40.5% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Andrew Sears Over | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.9 | -121 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -111 | best price | 38.9% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -142, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch | K Prop | Bryan Woo Over | MAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.8 | -142 | DK Over 4.5 -142 | exact | 29.3% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs LHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Ian Seymour Over | SOX@RAY | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | -131 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price | 21.7% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Hits All | Randy Dobnak Under | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -127 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Randy Dobnak Over | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -129 | DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact | 27.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Peter Lambert Over | BRA@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -156 | DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact | 26.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Mahle Over | BRA@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -140 | DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact | 25.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Chase Burns Over | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.7 | -193 | DK Over 0.5 -193 | exact | 240.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Leahy Over | NAT@CAR | 8:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -118 | DK Over 0.5 -118 | exact | 200.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Gerrit Cole Over | YAN@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -165 | DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Dustin May Over | BRE@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -151 | DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Ian Seymour Over | SOX@RAY | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -126 | DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Clay Holmes Under | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -152 | DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Phillips Under | MAR@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -155 | DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 42.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 7.5 | 9.7 | +118 | BetOnline Over 7.5 +126 | best price | 28.6% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | MAR@PAD | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | +104 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | best price | 24.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Randy Dobnak Over | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.3 | +102 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +115 | best price | 22.4% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@RAY | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -119 | DK Under 4.5 -119 | exact | 17.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Over | BRA@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -104 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price | 11.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kumar Rocker Over | JAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | +132 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue | 8.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Glasnow Under | GIA@DOD | 10:15 PM | 6.5 | 6.0 | +116 | FanDuel Under 6.5 +118 | best price | 7.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gerrit Cole Under | YAN@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -103 | BetMGM Under 4.5 +110 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Under | NAT@CAR | 8:16 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -131 | DK Under 6.5 -131 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | David Sandlin Over | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +119 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -185 | alt rescue | 4.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Clay Holmes Under | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -111 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -105 | best price | 3.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grayson Rodriguez Under | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -110 | BetMGM Under 4.5 +105 | best price | 2.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Dustin May Under | BRE@ORI | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -127 | DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Pivetta Under | MAR@PAD | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +131 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -165 | alt rescue | 0.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Connor Prielipp Under | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -106 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | best price | 0.0% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.21 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.7 | -171 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price | 12.6% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.90 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Peter Lambert Under | BRA@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.6 | -137 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -128 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Over | MAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -162 | DK Over 17.5 -162 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@RAY | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.4 | -115 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -112 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tyler Mahle Over | BRA@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.3 | -113 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 | best price | 4.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | YAN@DIA | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | -124 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -118 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Paul Skenes Under | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | -119 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price | 0.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cade Cavalli Under | NAT@CAR | 8:16 PM | 17.5 | 17.5 | -117 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price | 0.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | YAN@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -136 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Grayson Rodriguez Over | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | +121 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zach Thornton Under | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -137 | DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@RAY | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -117 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 35.4% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Chase Burns Over | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +165 | DK Over 1.5 +165 | exact | 25.1% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Clay Holmes Under | CUB@RED | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -188 | DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact | 15.8% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Paul Skenes Over | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -103 | DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact | 6.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 31.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Daniel Espino Over | ATH@GUA | 7:11 PM | 0.5 | 1.0 | +200 | BetMGM Over 0.5 +200 | exact | 100.0% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | David Sandlin Over | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -165 | DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Glasnow Over | GIA@DOD | 10:15 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -103 | DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Paul Skenes Over | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -158 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@RAY | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -175 | DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Sears Under | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -139 | DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Mahle Under | BRA@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Grayson Rodriguez Over | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -102 | DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Cavalli Over | NAT@CAR | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -145 | DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Randy Dobnak Under | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -128 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -115 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Connor Prielipp Under | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -168 | DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Mason Barnett Over | ATH@GUA | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +126 | DK Over 2.5 +126 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kumar Rocker Under | JAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -154 | DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | YAN@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -104 | DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cesar Perdomo Under | GIA@DOD | 10:15 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -123 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Pivetta Over | MAR@PAD | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -115 | DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Over | BRA@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -103 | DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Zach Thornton Under | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -160 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dylan Cease Under | JAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +101 | DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Peter Lambert Over | BRA@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -145 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -133 | best price | 6.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Over | ROY@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -120 | BetOnline Over 5.5 -120 | best price | 3.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context