MLB Bets 2026-09-17

Current generated report

Odds data use · 100 / 500 requests used (400 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	150W–118L–0P	56%	-18.29 u	Last 14 days • 268 settled
Grade A	16W–12L–0P	57%	-1.26 u
Grade B	134W–106L–0P	56%	-17.04 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3948W–2501L–8P	61%	-280.31 u	All-time • 6457 settled
Grade A	290W–229L–0P	56%	-13.89 u
Grade B	3656W–2263L–8P	62%	-259.98 u

97 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Corbin Burnes (ARIZ)	3.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	K Prop	Justin Wrobleski	4.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	K Prop	Kyle Harrison	4.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	K Prop	Seth Lugo	4.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	K Prop	Taj Bradley	6.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	K Prop	Tanner Gordon	3.5	-112	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Brady Singer	2.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Jeffrey Springs	2.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Justin Wrobleski	1.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	2.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Tanner Gordon	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Earned Run	Walbert Urena	1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	6.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nolan McLean	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen	0.5	-223	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-17	Pitcher Walks	Jeffrey Springs	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	673	55%	-29.97u	54	50%	-7.63u	317	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	562	58%	+6.69u	28	54%	-2.02u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	773	55%	-52.91u	103	48%	-20.97u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	526	63%	+7.57u	69	70%	+7.40u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	138	49%	-13.65u	5	80%	+2.06u	4	75%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 15 total candidate(s); season N 673, 14d N 54	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 562, 14d N 28	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 17 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 17/17 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 138, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	NO DATA	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Review will run after enough recently settled bets exist.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 856 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 235 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 822 pitcher(s), 3676 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 613 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 17 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 18 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 18 roster team(s), 252 hitter(s) \| 17 SP matchup(s), 1068 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 252 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 18 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Athletics, Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 18 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 16 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 373 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 9/9 game(s) with pitching props \| K 16 line(s)/9 game(s); Outs 18 line(s)/9 game(s); Hits Allowed 14 line(s)/8 game(s); Walks 5 line(s)/3 game(s); Earned Runs 18 line(s)/9 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 61, betmgm 8, espnbet 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 214 market side(s) checked \| 214 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 9 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 659 \| batter bats 726 \| batter hand splits 137 \| pitcher HR splits 47 \| batter pitch-type 613 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 9 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow blocked: 117 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_INVALID

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	12:36 PM	-144	+119	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds	12:41 PM	-168	+139	-1.5 (-107)	1.5 (-113)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:10 PM	+228	-285	1.5 (+100)	-1.5 (-120)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies	3:10 PM	-174	+143	-1.5 (-112)	1.5 (-108)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros	7:16 PM	+128	-155	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets	7:16 PM	+109	-132	1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+155)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+100	-121	1.5 (-204)	-1.5 (+167)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-142	+118	-1.5 (+119)	1.5 (-144)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-126	+104	-1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-163)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 13 Grade B | 37 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Kyle Harrison Over	BRE@PIR	12:36 PM	4.5	6.5	-150	FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 \| best price	45.2%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -139	K Prop	Walbert Urena Over	TWI@ANG	9:39 PM	4.5	6.5	-139	Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 \| best price	44.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -136	K Prop	Taj Bradley Over	TWI@ANG	9:39 PM	6.5	8.1	-136	BetMGM Over 6.5 -125 \| best price	23.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (3 play(s))

Pitcher Earned Runs - Walbert Urena Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

K Prop - Brady Singer Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.64

Pitcher Earned Runs - Taj Bradley Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Kyle Harrison Over 4.5 (-150) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-147	+113	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-150	+117	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	Recommended
MyBookie	4.5	-149	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 45.2% vs 17% min; cushion +2.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.6% / under 43.4%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kyle Harrison: K/9 10.6, proj 6.5K over 4.6 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Slurve (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slurve: 36.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 39 PA | K% 53.8% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .135 | OPS .369
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.9%, L7 20.4%, season 24.1%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 53.8%/39 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Pittsburgh Pirates 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 24.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.58
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
K% trend: headwind -8.0 ppts (recent 20.2% vs season 28.2%, proj adj -4.0%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Walbert Urena Over 4.5 (-139) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-137	+106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	Recommended
DK	4.5	-139	+109	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
MyBookie	4.5	-140	+101	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 44.8% vs 17% min; cushion +2.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Walbert Urena: K/9 8.7, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 18.7%, L7 24.4%, season 21.1%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -139 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Taj Bradley Over 6.5 (-136) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	6.5	-143	+110	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-145	+110	-
DK	6.5	-136	+106	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-140	+110	-
MyBookie	6.5	-145	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 23.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.3% / under 45.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.9, proj 8.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 41 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .308 | OPS .906
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 29.7%, L7 25.9%, season 25.4%, active roster 27.0%/14 hitters, BVP 24.4%/41 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 27.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.55
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5
K% trend: support +5.8 ppts (recent 33.1% vs season 27.3%, proj adj +2.9%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -136 -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (13 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 (-112) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-115	-112	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-112	-114	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-111	-
MyBookie	3.5	-119	-116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 32.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tanner Gordon: K/9 7.2, proj 4.6K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Changeup (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 40 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .782
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.6%, L7 17.2%, season 21.5%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters, BVP 35.0%/40 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; San Diego Padres 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 17.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.68
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (-149) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+117	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+130	-166	-
MyBookie	4.5	+114	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 29.0% vs 17% min; cushion -1.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.8, proj 3.2K over 5.2 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.3% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.343 | top pitch: Cutter (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Cutter: 20.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 112 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .247 | OPS .757
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 112 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.9%, L7 22.3%, season 21.8%, active roster 21.4%/14 hitters, BVP 17.0%/112 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Over 4.5 (-133) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-132	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-133	+104	Selected
MyBookie	4.5	-135	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 25.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.8% / under 46.2%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 8.8, proj 5.6K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 3.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 24.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.345
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.9%, L7 27.3%, season 25.5%, active roster 25.7%/14 hitters (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 37%; L7 team K% 27.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 4.62
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season
K% trend: support +4.9 ppts (recent 25.0% vs season 20.1%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -133, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.345/AVG 0.500 over 11 PA -- B risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael King Under 6.5 (-160) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 6.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -160

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 6.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.0 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 38.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.69 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.09, BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.6% / under 56.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .164 | OPS .475
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.5%, L7 18.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 26/30 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nolan McLean Under 5.5 (-149) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .146 | OPS .378
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.1%, L7 19.2%, season 21.9%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Drew Rasmussen Over 0.5 (-223) diff 100.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 64.7% / Under 35.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -223 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.0017384946443264 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 100.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.19 over 5.7 IP (BB% 4.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 64.7% / under 35.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 44 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .268 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.1%, L7 20.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.6%/44 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.4%, L7 5.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.5%/44 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-223); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jeffrey Springs Over 1.5 (-150) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9809389043579397 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 15.2% | AVG .321 | OPS .960
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.7%, L7 17.4%, season 18.4%, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.3%, L7 6.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 15.2%/33 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Over 1.5 (-133) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+115	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.59 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 5.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 3.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.345
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.9%, L7 27.3%, season 25.5% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Walbert Urena Over 1.5 (-158) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-158	+119	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.53 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 3.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.7%, L7 24.4%, season 21.1% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-158) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Gordon Under 3.5 (-135) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.6 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 25.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.94 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 5.60)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 40 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .782
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.6%, L7 17.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 35.0%/40 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Over 2.5 (-140) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+115	-
DK	2.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.70 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.53, ERA 6.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 55 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .146 | OPS .484
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.2%, L7 18.6%, season 20.5%, BVP 21.8%/55 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 10/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Over 2.5 (-151) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-151	+113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.45 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.97, ERA 5.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.2% / under 43.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 15.2% | AVG .321 | OPS .960
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.7%, L7 17.4%, season 18.4%, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-145) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	-
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.63, ERA 2.71)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 108 PA | K% 28.7% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .520
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.6%, L7 26.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 28.7%/108 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (37 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Over 5.5 (-121) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-114	-114	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-121	-106	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	Recommended
MyBookie	5.5	-116	-119	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.76K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.6% / under 48.4%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Sonny Gray: K/9 8.3, proj 6.3K over 5.9 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 108 PA | K% 28.7% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .520
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 108 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.6%, L7 26.2%, season 22.9%, active roster 22.0%/14 hitters, BVP 28.7%/108 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 8/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; L7 team K% 26.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Over 4.5 (+115) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+115	-147	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
MyBookie	4.5	+108	-149	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.60K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael King: K/9 7.3, proj 5.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.3% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .164 | OPS .475
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.5%, L7 18.5%, season 22.8%, active roster 23.5%/14 hitters, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Colorado Rockies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 36%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.93
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Erick Fedde Under 3.5 (-144) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	-
MyBookie	3.5	+101	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Erick Fedde: K/9 5.9, proj 3.1K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.0% | put-away% 14.0% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 71 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .281 | OPS .915
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 71 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 22.4%, L7 18.3%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 19.7%/71 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Detroit Tigers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/31 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.94
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 (+123) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +123

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+130	-180	-
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-156	+120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-157	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-154	+120	-
MyBookie	5.5	-158	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 8.6, proj 4.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 44 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .268 | OPS .855
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.1%, L7 20.7%, season 22.5%, active roster 22.3%/14 hitters, BVP 13.6%/44 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 21%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 20.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Over 5.5 (-103) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-103	-124	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	-
MyBookie	5.5	+100	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Nolan McLean: K/9 9.1, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.3% | put-away% 22.5% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 26.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .146 | OPS .378
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 19.2%, season 21.9%, active roster 19.9%/14 hitters, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.34
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.8 ppts (recent 19.7% vs season 26.5%, proj adj -3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Framber Valdez Under 4.5 (-150) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 4.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 4.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+117	-150	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
MyBookie	4.5	+102	-141	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Framber Valdez: K/9 5.9, proj 4.1K over 5.8 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Curveball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 25.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 115 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .270 | OPS .740
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 115 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.4%, L7 27.6%, season 24.2%, active roster 26.1%/14 hitters, BVP 18.3%/115 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Chicago White Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 24.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; L7 team K% 27.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.1 ppts (recent 11.9% vs season 17.0%, proj adj -2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (+108) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-160	Recommended
MyBookie	5.5	+114	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.53K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Aaron Nola: K/9 8.7, proj 6.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 28.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 229 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .242 | OPS .830
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 229 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.2%, L7 19.4%, season 22.4%, active roster 23.3%/14 hitters, BVP 22.7%/229 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/30 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Under 4.5 (-162) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.64 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-159	+122	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-180	+135	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	3.5	-172	+134	-
MyBookie	3.5	-160	+116	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	-
DK	4.5	+126	-162	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.7% / under 58.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Brady Singer: K/9 7.6, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Sweeper (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 55 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .146 | OPS .484
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.2%, L7 18.6%, season 20.5%, active roster 19.1%/14 hitters, BVP 21.8%/55 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 18.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.31
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 3.5 (+111) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+120	-160	-
DK	3.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+120	-154	-
MyBookie	3.5	+111	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 6.6, proj 3.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 25.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 15.2% | AVG .321 | OPS .960
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 15.7%, L7 17.4%, season 18.4%, active roster 17.2%/14 hitters, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 15.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 72%; high-contact hitters 5; L7 team K% 17.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.89
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.19 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Over 17.5 (-183) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -183

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 17.7 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	Recommended
DK	17.5	-183	+137	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-210	+154	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-200	+140	-
BetMGM	18.5	+150	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.499999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 17.7 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 44 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .268 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.1%, L7 20.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.6%/44 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.4%, L7 5.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.5%/44 PA (adj 0.91x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.12 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.00 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.00 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-177) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.8% / Under 40.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+135	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
DK	17.5	-177	+133	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.412 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.63 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.8% / under 40.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 108 PA | K% 28.7% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .520
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.6%, L7 26.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 28.7%/108 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 7.7%, L7 6.9%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.5%/108 PA (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-109) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-109	-122	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.136 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.66 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .146 | OPS .378
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.1%, L7 19.2%, season 21.9%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.5%, L7 10.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 7.7%/52 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 17.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Over 17.5 (-116) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-116	-114	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.407 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.36 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .164 | OPS .475
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.5%, L7 18.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 7.9%, L7 6.9%, season 8.3%, BVP 3.3%/60 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/30 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Walbert Urena Under 17.5 (-121) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-105	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.7 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.06 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.7%, L7 24.4%, season 21.1% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.2%, L7 6.6%, season 8.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 15.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Under 17.5 (+128) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +128

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-185	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
DK	17.5	-171	+128	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.368000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.89 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 41 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .308 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 29.7%, L7 25.9%, season 25.4%, BVP 24.4%/41 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 12.3%, L7 10.4%, season 8.3%, BVP 4.9%/41 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 17.5 (-132) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
DK	17.5	+100	-132	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-136	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.391000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 115 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .270 | OPS .740
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.4%, L7 27.6%, season 24.2%, BVP 18.3%/115 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.4%, split 12.4%, L7 12.1%, season 9.5%, BVP 11.3%/115 PA (adj 1.18x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.4%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/29 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Over 5.5 (-107) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.29 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.61, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.4% / under 51.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 112 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .247 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 22.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.0%/112 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-145) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 108 PA | K% 28.7% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .520
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.6%, L7 26.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 28.7%/108 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Aaron Nola Under 5.5 (-143) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 229 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .242 | OPS .830
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.2%, L7 19.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 22.7%/229 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Under 5.5 (-123) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 115 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .270 | OPS .740
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.4%, L7 27.6%, season 24.2%, BVP 18.3%/115 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 (-123) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 15.2% | AVG .321 | OPS .960
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.7%, L7 17.4%, season 18.4%, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Gordon Under 6.5 (-140) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 6.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 6.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.5 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.35 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.53, BB% 4.2%)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 40 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .782
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.6%, L7 17.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 35.0%/40 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brady Singer Under 2.5 (-132) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0656766731203984 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.9 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.22x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 55 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .146 | OPS .484
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.2%, L7 18.6%, season 20.5%, BVP 21.8%/55 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 12.1%, split 11.5%, L7 14.6%, season 10.2%, BVP 12.7%/55 PA (adj 1.22x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Justin Wrobleski Under 1.5 (-215) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2589972185972431 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 4.8 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 3.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.1% / under 63.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.345
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.9%, L7 27.3%, season 25.5% (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 11.5%, L7 6.1%, season 9.4% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Seth Lugo Over 1.5 (-102) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6374985545912688 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 112 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .247 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 22.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.0%/112 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.0%, L7 6.9%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.8%/112 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/30 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Wilber Dotel Over 0.5 (+105) diff 160.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 4.52)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 2.0 IP/GS; recent 2.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 5.5 outs/1.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Wilber Dotel: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .364 | OPS .780
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.3%, L7 22.0%, season 21.6% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Miguel Ullola Over 0.5 (+150) diff 160.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.85 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 4.31)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 1.0 IP/GS; recent 1.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 3.5 outs/1.2 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.1% / under 62.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, L7 24.2%, season 20.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/6 (17%) | L20 1/6 (17%) | Season 1/6 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/6 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Alexander Over 0.5 (+165) diff 140.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.58 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 3.87)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 1.2 IP/GS; recent 1.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.4 IP; outs market 3.5 outs/1.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 35.3% / under 64.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Alexander: 46 PA | K% 6.5% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .372 | OPS .971
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 19.0%, L7 24.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 6.5%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 16/68 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.3% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Taj Bradley Over 1.5 (-170) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-170	+127	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 3.55)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 41 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .308 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 29.7%, L7 25.9%, season 25.4%, BVP 24.4%/41 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Harrison Over 1.5 (-130) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.32, ERA 5.19)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 39 PA | K% 53.8% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .135 | OPS .369
Opponent K profile: composite 27.1%, split 24.9%, L7 20.4%, season 24.1%, BVP 53.8%/39 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-107) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.83 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.23, ERA 2.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 44 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .268 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.1%, L7 20.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 13.6%/44 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-134) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.23 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.46, ERA 5.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 112 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .247 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 22.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.0%/112 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Under 2.5 (-163) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+122	-163	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.29 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 2.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 52 PA | K% 28.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .146 | OPS .378
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.1%, L7 19.2%, season 21.9%, BVP 28.8%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Erick Fedde Under 2.5 (-142) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.39 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.86, ERA 3.12)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 71 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .281 | OPS .915
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.4%, L7 18.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 19.7%/71 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/31 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Aaron Nola Under 2.5 (-108) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-123	-108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 3.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 229 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 12.7% | AVG .242 | OPS .830
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.2%, L7 19.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 22.7%/229 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Under 2.5 (+120) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.75 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.36, ERA 2.46)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 60 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .164 | OPS .475
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.5%, L7 18.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.3%/60 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Under 2.5 (-112) Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 3.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 115 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .270 | OPS .740
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.4%, L7 27.6%, season 24.2%, BVP 18.3%/115 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

17 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	59.8	57.4	64.5	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	59.1	51.6	71.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	57.5	59.7	56.0	4	Slurve (29% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tyler Alexander	Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	56.5	43.3	70.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	55.7	59.5	53.5	4	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	54.4	54.7	58.5	7	Curveball (38% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Wilber Dotel	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	53.9	53.0	58.0	5	Cutter (32% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	53.2	54.1	52.0	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers	50.8	48.8	56.5	6	Sweeper (39% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	46.8	50.1	46.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	45.7	44.9	43.5	6	Changeup (24% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	43.2	39.4	46.0	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	42.9	43.7	39.0	5	Changeup (35% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	41.6	41.7	41.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	40.6	47.7	31.0	5	Sweeper (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	38.7	33.7	42.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros	38.0	36.6	36.0	8	Cutter (23% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

17 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	16.7%	5.1	5.0	5.0	86	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers	R	22.6%	6.2	5.8	5.9	104	deep	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	R	15.6%	4.7	4.8	4.8	79	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	17.7%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	R	18.0%	5.1	4.9	4.9	86	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	L	15.2%	6.0	5.6	5.7	101	deep	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros	R	17.0%	4.8	5.5	5.3	80	short	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	R	23.1%	5.8	5.4	6.0	97	normal	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	21.8%	3.2	6.0	6.0	54	short	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.2 IP/start
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	25.4%	4.1	4.8	4.7	69	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	29.3%	5.8	5.7	6.0	97	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	24.1%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	R	23.2%	6.2	5.4	6.0	104	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Wilber Dotel	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	22.5%	2.0	2.0	4.7	34	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	R	20.2%	6.4	5.8	6.0	107	deep	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	R	24.6%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Alexander	Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	L	18.9%	1.2	1.2	3.4	20	short	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	19.5	2.0	11.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.00 <= 3 min
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers	17.5	19.4	1.9	10.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.9	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Over	San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Walbert Urena	Walbert Urena Under	Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Under	Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.