MLB Full Audit
MLB Full Audit
Thursday, September 17 2026
MARKET TRUST TIERS
18 market(s) with settled tracker history| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 673 | 55% | -29.97u | 54 | 50% | -7.63u | 317 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 562 | 58% | +6.69u | 28 | 54% | -2.02u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 773 | 55% | -52.91u | 103 | 48% | -20.97u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 526 | 63% | +7.57u | 69 | 70% | +7.40u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 138 | 49% | -13.65u | 5 | 80% | +2.06u | 4 | 75% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA
What each market needs to move stages| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS
17 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | 59.8 | 57.4 | 64.5 | 4 | Changeup (37% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics | 59.1 | 51.6 | 71.0 | 6 | Changeup (34% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.5 | 59.7 | 56.0 | 4 | Slurve (29% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | 56.5 | 43.3 | 70.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | 55.7 | 59.5 | 53.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | 54.4 | 54.7 | 58.5 | 7 | Curveball (38% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Wilber Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | 53.9 | 53.0 | 58.0 | 5 | Cutter (32% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 53.2 | 54.1 | 52.0 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers | 50.8 | 48.8 | 56.5 | 6 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | 46.8 | 50.1 | 46.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | 45.7 | 44.9 | 43.5 | 6 | Changeup (24% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | 43.2 | 39.4 | 46.0 | 5 | Curveball (31% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays | 42.9 | 43.7 | 39.0 | 5 | Changeup (35% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds | 41.6 | 41.7 | 41.5 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 49% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 40.6 | 47.7 | 31.0 | 5 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | 38.7 | 33.7 | 42.0 | 5 | Changeup (26% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros | 38.0 | 36.6 | 36.0 | 8 | Cutter (23% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS
17 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 16.7% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 86 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers | R | 22.6% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 104 | deep | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | R | 15.6% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 79 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 17.7% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | R | 18.0% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | L | 15.2% | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 101 | deep | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros | R | 17.0% | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 80 | short | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | R | 23.1% | 5.8 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 21.8% | 3.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 54 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.2 IP/start |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 25.4% | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 69 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 29.3% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 24.1% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | R | 23.2% | 6.2 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Wilber Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 22.5% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 34 | short | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | R | 20.2% | 6.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 107 | deep | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics | R | 24.6% | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | L | 18.9% | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 20 | short | full | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE
7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Over | Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 19.5 | 2.0 | 11.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.00 <= 3 min |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Over | Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 19.4 | 1.9 | 10.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.9 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael King | Michael King Over | San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 5.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Walbert Urena | Walbert Urena Under | Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Taj Bradley | Taj Bradley Under | Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Framber Valdez | Framber Valdez Under | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.7 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES
53 candidates evaluated| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Kyle Harrison Over | BRE@PIR | 12:36 PM | 4.5 | 6.5 | -150 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price | 45.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -139 | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 4.5 | 6.5 | -139 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 44.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -136 | K Prop | Taj Bradley Over | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 6.5 | 8.1 | -136 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -125 | best price | 23.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Tanner Gordon Over | PAD@ROC | 3:10 PM | 3.5 | 4.6 | -112 | DK Over 3.5 -112 | exact | 32.5% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Seth Lugo Under | ROY@AST | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.2 | -149 | DK Under 4.5 -149 | exact | 29.0% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Justin Wrobleski Over | DOD@RED | 12:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -133 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -132 | best price | 25.6% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Michael King Under | PAD@ROC | 3:10 PM | 6.5 | 4.0 | -160 | theScore Bet Under 6.5 -160 | exact | 38.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Nolan McLean Under | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -149 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-223); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Drew Rasmussen Over | ATH@RAY | 1:10 PM | 0.5 | 1.0 | -223 | DK Over 0.5 -223 | exact | 100.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@RAY | 1:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -150 | DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 32.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Justin Wrobleski Over | DOD@RED | 12:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -133 | DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Walbert Urena Over | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -158 | DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Gordon Under | PAD@ROC | 3:10 PM | 3.5 | 2.6 | -135 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | exact | 25.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Brady Singer Over | DOD@RED | 12:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.1 | -140 | DK Over 2.5 -140 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@RAY | 1:10 PM | 2.5 | 3.1 | -151 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -150 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | -121 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -104 | best price | 13.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael King Over | PAD@ROC | 3:10 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | +115 | DK Over 4.5 +115 | exact | 13.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Erick Fedde Under | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.1 | -144 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Under | ATH@RAY | 1:10 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | +123 | DK Under 5.5 +123 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -103 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -150 | BetOnline Under 4.5 -139 | best price | 9.9% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | +108 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price | 9.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brady Singer Under | DOD@RED | 12:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -162 | DK Under 4.5 -162 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@RAY | 1:10 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | +111 | BetMGM Over 3.5 +125 | best price | 1.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.00 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Drew Rasmussen Over | ATH@RAY | 1:10 PM | 17.5 | 19.5 | -183 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -180 | best price | 11.4% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.4 | -177 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -109 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 | best price | 9.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael King Over | PAD@ROC | 3:10 PM | 17.5 | 18.4 | -116 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -114 | best price | 5.2% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Walbert Urena Under | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | -121 | DK Under 17.5 -121 | exact | 4.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Taj Bradley Under | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | +128 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +135 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | -132 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -118 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@AST | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | -107 | DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -145 | DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Under | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -143 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -123 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@RAY | 1:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -123 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Gordon Under | PAD@ROC | 3:10 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | -140 | theScore Bet Under 6.5 -140 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Brady Singer Under | DOD@RED | 12:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -132 | DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact | 17.4% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Justin Wrobleski Under | DOD@RED | 12:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -215 | DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact | 16.1% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@AST | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -102 | DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Wilber Dotel Over | BRE@PIR | 12:36 PM | 0.5 | 1.3 | +105 | BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact | 160.0% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 37.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Miguel Ullola Over | ROY@AST | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.3 | +150 | BetMGM Over 0.5 +150 | exact | 160.0% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 35.3% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Alexander Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | +165 | BetMGM Over 0.5 +165 | exact | 140.0% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Taj Bradley Over | TWI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -170 | DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Harrison Over | BRE@PIR | 12:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -130 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Rasmussen Over | ATH@RAY | 1:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -107 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price | 20.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@AST | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -134 | DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Nolan McLean Under | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -163 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Erick Fedde Under | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -142 | DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Under | PHI@MET | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -108 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael King Under | PAD@ROC | 3:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +120 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -112 | DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context