MLB Bets 2026-09-15

Current generated report

Odds data use · 17561 / 20000 requests used (2439 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	162W–128L–0P	56%	-19.27 u	Last 14 days • 290 settled
Grade A	19W–14L–0P	58%	-1.19 u
Grade B	143W–114L–0P	56%	-18.08 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3934W–2494L–8P	61%	-282.18 u	All-time • 6436 settled
Grade A	289W–229L–0P	56%	-14.58 u
Grade B	3643W–2256L–8P	62%	-261.16 u

102 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Corbin Burnes (ARIZ)	3.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	K Prop	Cristopher Sánchez	6.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	K Prop	Drew Anderson	3.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	K Prop	Logan Gilbert	6.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Andre Pallante	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Drew Anderson	2.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Hunter Brown	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Lake Bachar	0.5	-178	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Gilbert	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Soroka	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Rhett Lowder	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Johnson	2.5	-107	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Sean Manaea	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Outs	Jacob Misiorowski	17.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Griffin Jax	0.5	-245	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Hunter Brown	1.5	-202	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Jackson Kent	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Freeland	0.5	-218	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Lake Bachar	0.5	-206	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Martin Perez	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Rhett Lowder	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-190	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-14	K Prop	Brandon Young	3.5	-157	-	WIN	+0.637	Brandon Young: 6.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-14	K Prop	Troy Melton	3.5	-156	-	LOSS	-1.000	Troy Melton: 3.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-14	K Prop	Casey Mize	3.5	-150	-	LOSS	-1.000	Casey Mize: 0.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-14	K Prop	Corbin Burnes	4.5	-168	-	WIN	+0.595	Corbin Burnes: 4.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	670	55%	-30.48u	61	52%	-6.05u	316	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	562	58%	+6.69u	32	56%	-1.04u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	764	55%	-53.87u	101	47%	-22.15u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	518	63%	+6.18u	68	72%	+10.08u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	137	49%	-12.65u	6	83%	+3.05u	4	75%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 670, 14d N 61	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 562, 14d N 32	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 137, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 854 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 820 pitcher(s), 3665 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 611 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 30 team(s), 270 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 421 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1069 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 270 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 15 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 4 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 371 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 2/2 game(s) with pitching props \| K 4 line(s)/2 game(s); Outs 4 line(s)/2 game(s); Hits Allowed 4 line(s)/2 game(s); Walks 4 line(s)/2 game(s); Earned Runs 4 line(s)/2 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 20
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 56 market side(s) checked \| 56 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 2 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 659 \| batter bats 732 \| batter hand splits 136 \| pitcher HR splits 48 \| batter pitch-type 611 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 2 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow blocked: 28 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_INVALID

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-169	+140	-1.5 (+102)	1.5 (-123)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	+128	-155	1.5 (-165)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 3 Grade B | 8 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: juiced K over -130	K Prop	Logan Gilbert Over	MAR@ANG	9:38 PM	6.5	8.7	-130	BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 \| best price	33.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (1 play(s))

Pitcher Walks - Ryan Johnson Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 (-130) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	Recommended
BetOnline	6.5	-128	-101	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-122	-104	-
MyBookie	6.5	-131	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 33.9% vs 17% min; cushion +2.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Logan Gilbert: K/9 10.6, proj 8.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.4% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian Walsh — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Gilbert: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .258 | OPS .960
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.5%, split 29.9%, L7 27.9%, season 25.3%, top-6 24.3%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 24.6%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 24%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 27.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.3% (6/6); lineup K% 24.9% (9/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 30.4% vs season 27.3%, proj adj +1.6%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: juiced K over -130 -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (3 play(s))

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (-143) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+120	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.49, ERA 4.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Gilbert: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .258 | OPS .960
Opponent K profile: composite 27.5%, split 29.9%, L7 27.9%, season 25.3%, top-6 24.3%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.3% (6/6); lineup K% 24.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Soroka Over 1.5 (-140) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.96 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.74, ERA 4.29)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.7%, L7 24.9%, season 21.9%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 (-106) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.22 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 5.34, ERA 4.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Johnson: 18 PA | K% 5.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .353 | OPS .918
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 18.9%, season 23.2%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 23.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (8 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Under 4.5 (-146) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+114	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-158	-
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-
MyBookie	4.5	+111	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.78K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Ryan Johnson: K/9 6.5, proj 3.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.347 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brian Walsh — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Johnson: 18 PA | K% 5.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .353 | OPS .918
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 18.9%, season 23.2%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 24.2%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 23.4% (9/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.32
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Soroka Under 4.5 (-168) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -168

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	4.5	+135	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+131	-168	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	4.5	+127	-177	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.8% / under 59.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael Soroka: K/9 8.5, proj 4.4K over 4.6 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Slurve (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Erich Bacchus — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slurve: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.7%, L7 24.9%, season 21.9%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Miami Marlins 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.7%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Over 17.5 (-181) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -181

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+135	-
BetOnline	17.5	-170	+130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	-
Caesars	17.5	-173	+129	-
DK	17.5	-181	+135	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+122	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-180	+125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.168 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.49 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.2% / under 39.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Gilbert: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .258 | OPS .960
Opponent K profile: composite 27.5%, split 29.9%, L7 27.9%, season 25.3%, top-6 24.3%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 12.0%, L7 9.7%, season 8.2%, BVP 5.6%/36 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.3% (6/6); lineup K% 24.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Johnson Over 1.5 (-175) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-175	+131	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.186653678526165 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.0 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Johnson: 18 PA | K% 5.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .353 | OPS .918
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 18.9%, season 23.2%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 9.6%, L7 8.6%, season 9.0%, BVP 0.0%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (6/6); lineup K% 23.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Soroka Under 1.5 (-149) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.2553748206572017 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 4.4 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.7%, L7 24.9%, season 21.9%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.9%, L7 6.5%, season 9.1%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Janson Junk Under 1.5 (-192) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.299814964033721 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 4.3 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.3 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.5% / under 61.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 16.4%, L7 18.3%, season 19.4%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.2%, L7 9.5%, season 8.8%, BVP 11.1%/18 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (6/6); lineup K% 19.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (-119) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5965237203863927 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.5 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Gilbert: 36 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .258 | OPS .960
Opponent K profile: composite 27.5%, split 29.9%, L7 27.9%, season 25.3%, top-6 24.3%, BVP 27.8%/36 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 12.0%, L7 9.7%, season 8.2%, BVP 5.6%/36 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.3% (6/6); lineup K% 24.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Under 2.5 (-157) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 4.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.3 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 16.4%, L7 18.3%, season 19.4%, top-6 17.2%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.2% (6/6); lineup K% 19.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	87.0	89.7	95.0	5	Curveball (43% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 37.4%, put-away 31.3%, xwOBA 0.225, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	67.5	75.4	65.0	5	Changeup (47% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 34.4%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins	67.2	55.0	83.0	7	Curveball (32% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.249, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	65.8	69.7	66.5	3	Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Chris Murphy	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	64.7	65.9	65.0	7	Curveball (38% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 32.4%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	63.1	60.2	72.5	6	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	62.6	66.6	62.5	6	Slider (40% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels	60.6	65.0	60.0	6	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	60.0	55.7	65.0	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays	57.5	60.5	55.0	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	55.5	58.0	52.0	6	Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers	55.1	59.0	53.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	54.8	58.0	53.0	5	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	54.7	68.0	43.5	6	Changeup (39% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros	50.0	46.0	55.5	6	Changeup (28% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	48.8	42.1	55.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets	48.1	45.4	51.0	5	Curveball (30% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers	47.6	60.5	33.0	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	47.0	46.9	47.5	7	Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	46.7	49.0	48.0	6	Slurve (35% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	44.9	38.9	50.5	7	Slider (25% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	44.6	42.5	45.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles	42.9	46.4	37.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	42.2	39.2	44.0	6	Sweeper (43% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs	41.3	39.7	43.5	5	Changeup (35% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	40.9	47.5	30.0	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	40.6	45.0	34.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	40.5	42.7	34.0	4	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks	38.8	27.3	47.0	6	Changeup (24% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 14.9%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	35.5	36.0	32.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	R	21.9%	3.5	5.3	4.9	59	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	25.6%	4.8	4.5	4.6	80	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs	L	16.9%	4.7	5.1	5.0	79	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets	R	19.4%	5.1	5.8	5.7	86	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers	L	23.5%	4.3	5.0	4.9	72	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	R	25.8%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Chris Murphy	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	L	27.3%	1.0	1.0	4.0	17	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	16.3%	4.6	4.9	4.8	77	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	L	20.8%	4.4	5.6	5.4	74	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	L	18.2%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	23.7%	4.9	4.5	4.7	82	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	R	28.2%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros	R	21.5%	5.8	6.3	6.2	97	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	R	17.4%	5.8	5.0	5.1	97	normal	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	R	28.5%	6.6	6.6	6.6	111	deep	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	13.9%	3.5	5.0	4.7	59	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	35.5%	5.4	6.0	6.0	91	normal	full	95.00	5.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	R	17.7%	4.4	5.3	5.2	74	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles	L	19.6%	5.3	5.7	5.6	89	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins	L	25.3%	3.9	5.5	5.2	65	short	full	83.00	17.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	L	25.0%	6.3	6.2	6.3	106	deep	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	25.3%	1.7	2.3	2.4	28	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.5%	4.8	4.8	4.8	80	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.9%	4.2	5.0	5.0	70	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels	R	28.4%	5.2	5.9	6.0	87	normal	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	R	15.4%	5.0	5.6	5.5	84	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	R	26.4%	4.5	4.5	4.5	76	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox	R	32.3%	4.8	5.3	5.2	80	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers	R	25.8%	1.0	1.1	1.5	17	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	19.3%	4.8	4.6	5.0	80	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

1/1 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Over	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	18.2	0.7	3.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.