SacBoyz Signals
MLB Full Audit

MLB Full Audit

Tuesday, September 15 2026

SacBoyzSignals.com

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WRReview-only N
K Prop✅ TRUSTED67055%-30.48u6152%-6.05u31656%64
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED56258%+6.69u3256%-1.04u450%6
Run Line✅ TRUSTED17358%+7.01u0-+0.00u4661%1
Batter Walks👀 WATCH208474%-55.49u0-+0.00u875%134
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH76455%-53.87u10147%-22.15u1100%9
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH51863%+6.18u6872%+10.08u0-11
Batter Hits👀 WATCH5571%-0.17u0-+0.00u0-23
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH3551%-1.50u0-+0.00u0-37
F5 ML👀 WATCH3044%+2.54u0-+0.00u0-0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH1127%-5.27u0-+0.00u0-0
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-0
NRFI👀 WATCH520%-2.00u0-+0.00u0-4
YRFI👀 WATCH450%-2.00u0-+0.00u0-7
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH13749%-12.65u683%+3.05u475%8
Total🔬 RESEARCH6239%-13.07u0-+0.00u1100%7
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH3842%-10.07u0-+0.00u10%6
No HR🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u0-+0.00u0-0
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED60952%-60.11u0-+0.00u8653%355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d P&L non-negative
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d sample >= 10
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted5/5No blocker
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates87.089.795.05Curveball (43% whiff, 10% usage)Savant whiff 37.4%, put-away 31.3%, xwOBA 0.225, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGromTexas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox67.575.465.05Changeup (47% whiff, 13% usage)Savant whiff 34.4%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Max FriedNew York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins67.255.083.07Curveball (32% whiff, 13% usage)Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.249, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristopher SánchezPhiladelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals65.869.766.53Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Chris MurphyChicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians64.765.965.07Curveball (38% whiff, 24% usage)Savant whiff 32.4%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu YamamotoLos Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds63.160.272.56Split-Finger (34% whiff, 27% usage)Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Lake BacharPittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers62.666.662.56Slider (40% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan GilbertSeattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels60.665.060.06Split-Finger (40% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter BrownHouston Astros vs Kansas City Royals60.055.765.05Curveball (34% whiff, 19% usage)Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Drew AndersonDetroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays57.560.555.05Changeup (37% whiff, 31% usage)Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack PerkinsAthletics vs Tampa Bay Rays55.558.052.06Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braydon FisherToronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers55.159.053.05Slider (31% whiff, 49% usage)Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin GausmanChicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves54.858.053.05Split-Finger (42% whiff, 38% usage)Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin JaxTampa Bay Rays vs Athletics54.768.043.56Changeup (39% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael WachaKansas City Royals vs Houston Astros50.046.055.56Changeup (28% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andre PallanteSt. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants48.842.155.05Slider (31% whiff, 29% usage)Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane BazBaltimore Orioles vs New York Mets48.145.451.05Curveball (30% whiff, 33% usage)Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Patrick SandovalBoston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers47.660.533.06Changeup (42% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster GriffinCleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox47.046.947.57Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael SorokaArizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins46.749.048.06Slurve (35% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Walker BuehlerSan Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies44.938.950.57Slider (25% whiff, 10% usage)Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Blade TidwellSan Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals44.642.545.56Sweeper (33% whiff, 34% usage)Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean ManaeaNew York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles42.946.437.55Sweeper (31% whiff, 31% usage)Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bailey OberMinnesota Twins vs New York Yankees42.239.244.06Sweeper (43% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Martín PérezAtlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs41.339.743.55Changeup (35% whiff, 31% usage)Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson KentWashington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies40.947.530.05Changeup (37% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle FreelandColorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres40.645.034.56Curveball (34% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan JohnsonLos Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners40.542.734.04Split-Finger (32% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Janson JunkMiami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks38.827.347.06Changeup (24% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 14.9%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Rhett LowderCincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers35.536.032.06Slider (32% whiff, 27% usage)Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Michael SorokaArizona Diamondbacks vs Miami MarlinsR21.9%3.55.34.959shortfull48.0052.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.5 IP/start
Jack PerkinsAthletics vs Tampa Bay RaysR25.6%4.84.54.680shortfull52.0048.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Martín PérezAtlanta Braves vs Chicago CubsL16.9%4.75.15.079shortfull43.5056.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Shane BazBaltimore Orioles vs New York MetsR19.4%5.15.85.786shortfull51.0049.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start
Patrick SandovalBoston Red Sox vs Texas RangersL23.5%4.35.04.972shortfull33.0067.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.3 IP/start
Kevin GausmanChicago Cubs vs Atlanta BravesR25.8%5.45.55.591normalfull53.0047.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Chris MurphyChicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansL27.3%1.01.04.017shortfull65.0035.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 1.0 IP/start
Rhett LowderCincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersR16.3%4.64.94.877shortfull32.0068.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Foster GriffinCleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxL20.8%4.45.65.474shortfull47.5052.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Kyle FreelandColorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresL18.2%5.15.45.386shortfull34.5065.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start
Drew AndersonDetroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue JaysR23.7%4.94.54.782shortfull55.0045.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Hunter BrownHouston Astros vs Kansas City RoyalsR28.2%5.15.45.386shortfull65.0035.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start
Michael WachaKansas City Royals vs Houston AstrosR21.5%5.86.36.297normalfull55.5044.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Ryan JohnsonLos Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersR17.4%5.85.05.197normalfull34.0066.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Yoshinobu YamamotoLos Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsR28.5%6.66.66.6111deepfull72.5027.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Janson JunkMiami Marlins vs Arizona DiamondbacksR13.9%3.55.04.759shortfull47.0053.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh PiratesR35.5%5.46.06.091normalfull95.005.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Bailey OberMinnesota Twins vs New York YankeesR17.7%4.45.35.274shortfull44.0056.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Sean ManaeaNew York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesL19.6%5.35.75.689normalfull37.5062.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.7%
Max FriedNew York Yankees vs Minnesota TwinsL25.3%3.95.55.265shortfull83.0017.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.9 IP/start
Cristopher SánchezPhiladelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsL25.0%6.36.26.3106deepfull66.5033.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Lake BacharPittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersR25.3%1.72.32.428shortfull62.5037.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 1.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Walker BuehlerSan Diego Padres vs Colorado RockiesR21.5%4.84.84.880shortfull50.5049.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start
Blade TidwellSan Francisco Giants vs St. Louis CardinalsR19.9%4.25.05.070shortfull45.5054.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.2 IP/start
Logan GilbertSeattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsR28.4%5.25.96.087normalfull60.0040.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Andre PallanteSt. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco GiantsR15.4%5.05.65.584shortfull55.0045.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start
Griffin JaxTampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsR26.4%4.54.54.576shortfull43.5056.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start
Jacob deGromTexas Rangers vs Boston Red SoxR32.3%4.85.35.280shortfull65.0035.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start
Braydon FisherToronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersR25.8%1.01.11.517shortfull53.0047.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 1.0 IP/start
Jackson KentWashington Nationals vs Philadelphia PhilliesL19.3%4.84.65.080shortfull30.0070.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

1/1 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Logan GilbertLogan Gilbert OverSeattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels17.518.20.73.8%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal6.087season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

12 candidates evaluated
← Back to Picks
GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffSignal Breakdown ✓!✗–Tier
► Best Signals
A✅ Best Signal
K final QC: juiced K over -130
K PropLogan Gilbert OverMAR@ANG9:38 PM6.58.7-130BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price33.9%✓✓✓✓––Best Signal
► Add Signals
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RLogan Gilbert OverMAR@ANG9:38 PM1.52.2-143DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact46.7%✓✓!–––Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)
Pitcher Earned RMichael Soroka OverMAR@DIA9:40 PM1.52.1-140DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact40.0%✓✓✓––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RRyan Johnson OverMAR@ANG9:38 PM2.53.0-106DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact20.0%✓✓✓–––Add Signal
► Lean Signals (Derisked)
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropRyan Johnson UnderMAR@ANG9:38 PM4.53.7-146DK Under 4.5 -146 | exact17.3%✓✗!✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropMichael Soroka UnderMAR@DIA9:40 PM4.54.4-168FanDuel Under 4.5 -164 | best price3.0%✓✗!✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsLogan Gilbert OverMAR@ANG9:38 PM17.518.2-181FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price3.8%✓✗✓–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher WalksRyan Johnson OverMAR@ANG9:38 PM1.52.2-175DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact45.8%✓✓✗–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)
Pitcher WalksMichael Soroka UnderMAR@DIA9:40 PM1.51.3-149DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact16.3%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)
Pitcher WalksJanson Junk UnderMAR@DIA9:40 PM1.51.3-192DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact13.4%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksLogan Gilbert OverMAR@ANG9:38 PM1.51.6-119DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact6.4%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RJanson Junk UnderMAR@DIA9:40 PM2.52.4-157BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price4.0%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked

✓ Supports   ! Mixed   ✗ Opposes   – No Data  |  Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context