MLB Bets 2026-09-15

Current generated report

Odds data use · 17528 / 20000 requests used (2472 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	162W–128L–0P	56%	-19.27 u	Last 14 days • 290 settled
Grade A	19W–14L–0P	58%	-1.19 u
Grade B	143W–114L–0P	56%	-18.08 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3934W–2494L–8P	61%	-282.18 u	All-time • 6436 settled
Grade A	289W–229L–0P	56%	-14.58 u
Grade B	3643W–2256L–8P	62%	-261.16 u

101 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Corbin Burnes (ARIZ)	3.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	K Prop	Cristopher Sánchez	6.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	K Prop	Drew Anderson	3.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	K Prop	Logan Gilbert	6.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Andre Pallante	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Drew Anderson	2.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Hunter Brown	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Lake Bachar	0.5	-178	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Soroka	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Rhett Lowder	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Johnson	2.5	-107	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Sean Manaea	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Outs	Jacob Misiorowski	17.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Griffin Jax	0.5	-245	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Hunter Brown	1.5	-202	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Jackson Kent	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Freeland	0.5	-218	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Lake Bachar	0.5	-206	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Martin Perez	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Rhett Lowder	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-15	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-190	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-14	K Prop	Brandon Young	3.5	-157	-	WIN	+0.637	Brandon Young: 6.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-14	K Prop	Troy Melton	3.5	-156	-	LOSS	-1.000	Troy Melton: 3.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-14	K Prop	Casey Mize	3.5	-150	-	LOSS	-1.000	Casey Mize: 0.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-14	K Prop	Corbin Burnes	4.5	-168	-	WIN	+0.595	Corbin Burnes: 4.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	670	55%	-30.48u	61	52%	-6.05u	316	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	562	58%	+6.69u	32	56%	-1.04u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	764	55%	-53.87u	101	47%	-22.15u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	518	63%	+6.18u	68	72%	+10.08u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	137	49%	-12.65u	6	83%	+3.05u	4	75%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 26 total candidate(s); season N 670, 14d N 61	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 562, 14d N 32	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 137, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 854 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 820 pitcher(s), 3665 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 611 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 421 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 1399 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 421 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Athletics, Minnesota Twins
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 371 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 30 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 30 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 25 line(s)/13 game(s); Earned Runs 29 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 133, bovada_direct 6, betmgm 3, fanatics 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 406 market side(s) checked \| 406 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 659 \| batter bats 726 \| batter hand splits 136 \| pitcher HR splits 48 \| batter pitch-type 611 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 210 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:40 PM	+193	-238	1.5 (-114)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	6:40 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds	6:40 PM	-246	+199	-1.5 (-142)	1.5 (+118)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	-265	+213	-1.5 (-143)	1.5 (+119)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals	6:45 PM	-224	+182	-1.5 (-126)	1.5 (+104)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+118	-143	1.5 (-182)	-1.5 (+150)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets	7:10 PM	+112	-134	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs	7:40 PM	+119	-143	1.5 (-180)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	-180	+148	-1.5 (-102)	1.5 (-118)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:45 PM	+138	-168	1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+129)	1.5 (-156)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros	8:10 PM	+138	-167	1.5 (-158)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies	8:40 PM	-198	+162	-1.5 (-123)	1.5 (+102)	O/U 11.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-174	+144	-1.5 (+100)	1.5 (-120)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	+130	-157	1.5 (-165)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 19 Grade B | 78 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Drew Anderson Over	TIG@JAY	7:08 PM	3.5	5.0	-145	Fanatics Over 3.5 -145 \| best price	42.4%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Jack Perkins Over

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.12

Pitcher Earned Runs - Logan Gilbert Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Drew Anderson Over 3.5 (-145) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+117	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-145	+114	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-160	+124	-
Fanatics	3.5	-145	+110	Recommended
MyBookie	3.5	-154	+111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 42.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Drew Anderson: K/9 9.3, proj 5.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.2% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 18.3%, L7 19.2%, season 19.2%, active roster 20.3%/14 hitters (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 12/47 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (19 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 (-121) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	6.5	-120	-108	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-115	-111	Recommended
MyBookie	6.5	-124	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 33.1% vs 17% min; cushion +2.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Logan Gilbert: K/9 10.6, proj 8.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.4% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 49 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .209 | OPS .759
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.8%, split 29.9%, L7 27.9%, season 25.3%, active roster 26.9%/14 hitters, BVP 26.5%/49 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 27.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.45
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 30.4% vs season 27.3%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 2.15K, diff 33.1%, books 83%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Cristopher Sánchez Over 6.5 (-115) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 32.6% vs 17% min; cushion +2.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Cristopher Sánchez: K/9 9.5, proj 8.6K over 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 24.5% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 109 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 109 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.1%/15 hitters, BVP 22.0%/109 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Washington Nationals 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.1% (15 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/15 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 (-125) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-122	-109	-
DK	17.5	-125	-106	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 20.555 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 17.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +1.0 IP (xFIP 2.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +1.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 53 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .174 | OPS .438
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 14.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 34.0%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.5%, L7 8.1%, season 9.2%, BVP 7.5%/53 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Lake Bachar Over 0.5 (-206) diff 208.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 63.1% / Under 36.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -206 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5412676086645138 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 3.0 IP (BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 2.3 IP/GS; recent 1.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 2.4 IP; outs market 6.5 outs/2.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.1% / under 36.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.19x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Lake Bachar: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 13.0% | AVG .150 | OPS .561
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.6%, split 11.8%, L7 11.3%, season 10.6%, BVP 13.0%/23 PA (adj 1.19x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 23/48 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-206) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Griffin Jax Over 0.5 (-245) diff 198.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 66.6% / Under 33.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4911751126430335 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 66.6% / under 33.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 12 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .258
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.6%, L7 20.5%, season 22.4% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.5%, L7 8.0%, season 8.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/31 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-245) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kyle Freeland Over 0.5 (-218) diff 131.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 64.2% / Under 35.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -218 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.1558827514837764 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.0 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 11.7 outs/3.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 64.2% / under 35.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 190 PA | K% 13.7% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .307 | OPS .848
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 19.4%, L7 17.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.7%/190 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.7%, L7 9.0%, season 9.3%, BVP 8.9%/190 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-218) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Hunter Brown Over 1.5 (-202) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -202 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 62.7% / Under 37.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -202 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.806642647311545 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.51 over 5.3 IP (BB% 11.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.7% / under 37.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 60 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .858
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 22.2%, season 20.8%, BVP 20.0%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.4%, L7 11.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.0%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/17 (82%) | Season 14/17 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-202); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Martin Perez Over 1.5 (-144) diff 63.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4555142174200526 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.8 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 90 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .192 | OPS .518
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 21.2%, L7 16.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 16.7%/90 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 11.1%, L7 11.0%, season 10.7%, BVP 13.3%/90 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Rhett Lowder Over 1.5 (-173) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.137295929021135 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.19x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 19 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.297
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.2%, L7 18.9%, season 20.5%, BVP 21.1%/19 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.6%, split 11.5%, L7 14.0%, season 10.1%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 1.19x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-173); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Over 1.5 (-190) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.3% / Under 38.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.069693575444586 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.5 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.3% / under 38.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 34 PA | K% 2.9% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 19.4%, L7 20.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 2.9%/34 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 7.0%, L7 10.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 17.6%/34 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-190); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jackson Kent Over 1.5 (-164) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0011041619618175 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 4.4 IP (BB% 10.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.4%, L7 21.7%, season 22.0% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 9.0%, L7 5.5%, season 8.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.33 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/6 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-164) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Lake Bachar Over 0.5 (-178) diff 140.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -178

Selected market: Over 60.0% / Under 40.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-178	+134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.66 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 3.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 2.3 IP/GS; recent 1.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 2.4 IP; outs market 6.5 outs/2.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.0% / under 40.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Lake Bachar: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 13.0% | AVG .150 | OPS .561
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.0%, L7 20.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 18/48 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-178) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Manaea Over 1.5 (-147) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-147	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 93.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.04 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.29, ERA 5.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.6% / under 44.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 23.2%, L7 28.9%, season 24.7%, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/30 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Over 1.5 (-150) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:45 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.59 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 3.06)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.8% / under 44.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 35 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .242 | OPS .589
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.6%, L7 23.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.9%/35 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Soroka Over 1.5 (-150) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.96 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.74, ERA 4.29)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Soroka: 16 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .533 | OPS 1.163
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.7%, L7 24.9%, season 21.9%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Brown Over 1.5 (-153) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.43 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.76, ERA 3.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 60 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .858
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 22.2%, season 20.8%, BVP 20.0%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Rhett Lowder Over 2.5 (-135) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	-
DK	2.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.89 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 6.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 19 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.297
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.2%, L7 18.9%, season 20.5%, BVP 21.1%/19 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 2.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Anderson Under 2.5 (-163) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	-
DK	2.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.80, ERA 3.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.3%, L7 19.2%, season 19.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 42/47 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-163) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 (-107) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.22 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 5.34, ERA 4.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 23 PA | K% 8.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .713
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 18.9%, season 23.2%, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (78 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 23 play(s) (B 6 | C 17)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 (-118) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	6.5	-112	-115	Recommended
DK	6.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	6.5	-115	-115	-
MyBookie	6.5	-116	-119	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 32.6% vs 17% min; cushion +2.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 9.5, proj 8.6K over 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 24.5% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 109 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 109 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.1%/15 hitters, BVP 22.0%/109 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Washington Nationals 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.1% (15 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/15 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 7.5 (-112) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-115	-
DK	7.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-111	-115	Recommended
Fanatics	7.5	-120	-110	-
MyBookie	7.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 31.8% vs 17% min; cushion +2.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 10.1, proj 9.9K over 6.4 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.270 | top pitch: Split-Finger (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Split-Finger: 43.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 78 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .481
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 23.4%, L7 29.8%, season 25.5%, active roster 26.0%/14 hitters, BVP 38.5%/78 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 37%; L7 team K% 29.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/26 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 6.58
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
K% trend: support +9.2 ppts (recent 35.2% vs season 26.0%, proj adj +4.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (-131) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-131	+103	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-122	-104	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	4.5	-133	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.78K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.7, proj 5.3K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 29.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .873
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 106 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.0%, L7 25.0%, season 21.8%, active roster 21.7%/14 hitters, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +4.2 ppts (recent 24.2% vs season 20.0%, proj adj +2.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Max Fried Over 4.5 (-154) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -154

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-156	+120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-154	+120	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	-
MyBookie	4.5	-158	+114	-
BetMGM	5.5	+130	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.60K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.2% / under 42.8%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Max Fried: K/9 9.2, proj 5.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.249 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Curveball: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 57 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .220 | OPS .656
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.6%, L7 22.1%, season 21.1%, active roster 21.8%/14 hitters, BVP 17.5%/57 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 45%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 28.3% vs season 24.6%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 4.5 (-143) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+119	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
DK	4.5	-143	+112	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-
MyBookie	4.5	-156	+113	-
BetMGM	5.5	+130	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Foster Griffin: K/9 8.0, proj 5.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 14 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .083 | OPS .298
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 24.3%, L7 29.3%, season 24.1%, active roster 25.1%/14 hitters (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 24.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; L7 team K% 29.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 5.03
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Weather: +8% run env ✓ Over | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Blade Tidwell Over 3.5 (-130) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-141	+109	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-130	+102	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-
MyBookie	3.5	-144	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Blade Tidwell: K/9 7.7, proj 3.6K over 4.8 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Blade Tidwell: 39 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .387 | OPS 1.068
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.3%, L7 19.6%, season 20.7%, active roster 22.0%/14 hitters, BVP 15.4%/39 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/15 (27%) | Season 4/15 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Over 3.5 (-122) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:45 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-120	-108	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-122	-105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-111	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-120	-110	-
MyBookie	3.5	-124	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 26.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.93K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Andre Pallante: K/9 5.9, proj 4.4K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 14.0% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Slider: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 35 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .242 | OPS .589
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 19.6%, L7 23.4%, season 21.5%, active roster 22.7%/13 hitters, BVP 22.9%/35 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 14%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 26.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (+107) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 8.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 8.33 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 5 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 8.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	8.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	8.5	+107	-139	-
DK	8.5	+107	-137	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	+122	-156	Recommended
MyBookie	8.5	+104	-144	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.0K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 17.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 12.1, proj 10.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 37.4% | put-away% 31.3% | xwOBA 0.225 | top pitch: Curveball (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 53 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .174 | OPS .438
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 14.3%, season 24.0%, active roster 22.3%/14 hitters, BVP 34.0%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Pittsburgh Pirates 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 14.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.00 | Season Avg 8.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 8.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
K% trend: headwind -10.0 ppts (recent 28.3% vs season 38.3%, proj adj -5.0%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Under 4.5 (-169) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -169

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+132	-169	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-
MyBookie	4.5	+111	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.7% / under 59.3%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Ryan Johnson: K/9 6.5, proj 3.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.347 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 23 PA | K% 8.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .713
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 18.9%, season 23.2%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Seattle Mariners 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 79%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.32
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 (+108) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Patrick Sandoval: K/9 9.5, proj 6.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 24.4% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 64 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 17.2% | AVG .216 | OPS .634
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 22.4%, L7 26.6%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 25.0%/64 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; L7 team K% 26.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Kent Over 3.5 (-131) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-131	+102	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-
MyBookie	3.5	-130	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 15.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.53K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.4% / under 46.6%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jackson Kent: K/9 7.7, proj 4.0K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.7%, season 22.0%, active roster 20.0%/14 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.83 | Season Avg 3.83
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (-112) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	5.5	-110	-118	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-
MyBookie	5.5	-114	-121	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.9, proj 6.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.5% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Split-Finger: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 106 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .238 | OPS .700
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 106 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.5%, L7 16.4%, season 21.6%, active roster 22.8%/13 hitters, BVP 21.7%/106 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 16.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.70
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 28.0% vs season 24.2%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 3.5 (-165) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.12 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	-165	+129	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	-
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-
MyBookie	4.5	+109	-152	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); DK LOWER delta -0.71
Jack Perkins: K/9 10.5, proj 3.9K over 4.5 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 25.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .520 | OPS 1.356
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 15.3%, split 15.6%, L7 14.7%, season 18.3%, active roster 16.6%/14 hitters, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 15.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 72%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 14.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/34 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Under 6.5 (-154) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-145	-
DK	6.5	+120	-154	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	6.5	+108	-149	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.8% / under 57.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Sean Manaea: K/9 7.8, proj 6.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .785
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 23.2%, L7 28.9%, season 24.7%, active roster 27.4%/14 hitters, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 28.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 27.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 25/30 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.0 ppts (recent 15.6% vs season 21.6%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hunter Brown Over 5.5 (-131) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-132	+102	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-131	+103	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	Recommended
MyBookie	5.5	-135	-102	-
BetMGM	6.5	+145	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hunter Brown: K/9 10.2, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 60 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .858
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 22.2%, season 20.8%, active roster 21.4%/14 hitters, BVP 20.0%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.88
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Soroka Under 4.5 (-135) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-
MyBookie	4.5	+100	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael Soroka: K/9 8.5, proj 4.2K over 4.6 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Slurve (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slurve: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Soroka: 16 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .533 | OPS 1.163
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.7%, L7 24.9%, season 21.9%, active roster 23.1%/14 hitters, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Miami Marlins 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 24.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Rhett Lowder Under 3.5 (-102) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	-
BetOnline	3.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-125	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-108	-
MyBookie	3.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Rhett Lowder: K/9 6.8, proj 3.3K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.4% | put-away% 15.6% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 19 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.297
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 19.2%, L7 18.9%, season 20.5%, active roster 18.4%/14 hitters, BVP 21.1%/19 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.62
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Griffin Jax Under 5.5 (-154) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 4.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
FanDuel	4.5	-170	+132	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	+113	-147	-
DK	5.5	+121	-154	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	+108	-149	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Griffin Jax: K/9 9.6, proj 5.3K over 4.7 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.2% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 12 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .258
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.6%, L7 20.5%, season 22.4%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 21%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 20.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 25/31 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 3.32
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +2.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bailey Ober Under 4.5 (-155) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+121	-155	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-
MyBookie	4.5	+112	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bailey Ober: K/9 7.1, proj 4.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Sweeper (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .709
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 20.2%, L7 21.4%, season 24.6%, active roster 25.2%/14 hitters, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.86
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 20.2% vs season 17.1%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Over 3.5 (+110) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-105	-123	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	-
DK	3.5	+110	-141	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+100	-128	-
Fanatics	3.5	+100	-130	-
MyBookie	3.5	-109	-127	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Walker Buehler: K/9 7.8, proj 3.6K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.3% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Slider (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .885
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.5%, L7 23.8%, season 22.9%, active roster 23.4%/14 hitters, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 36%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Martin Perez Over 3.5 (-101) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+103	-133	-
DK	3.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	3.5	+100	-130	-
MyBookie	3.5	-101	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Martin Perez: K/9 6.7, proj 3.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 33.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 90 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .192 | OPS .518
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 90 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.2%, L7 16.3%, season 21.2%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 16.7%/90 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Martín Pérez Over 3.5 (+105) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.9% / under 54.1%)
Martín Pérez: K/9 6.7, proj 3.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 33.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 90 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .192 | OPS .518
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 90 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.2%, L7 16.3%, season 21.2%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 16.7%/90 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Over 4.5 (-140) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+104	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-140	+110	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	Recommended
MyBookie	4.5	-138	+100	-
BetMGM	5.5	+140	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Baz: K/9 8.4, proj 4.5K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 34 PA | K% 2.9% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .853
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.4%, L7 20.1%, season 22.4%, active roster 23.4%/14 hitters, BVP 2.9%/34 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.17
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 (+120) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 18.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 18.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	18.5	+124	-170	-
DK	18.5	+120	-160	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+132	-178	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 21.971999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 18.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.24 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.6 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.6 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 78 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .481
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 23.4%, L7 29.8%, season 25.5%, BVP 38.5%/78 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.9%, L7 5.7%, season 9.4%, BVP 6.4%/78 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.20 | Season Avg 19.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (+134) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+125	-175	-
Caesars	18.5	+132	-176	-
DK	18.5	+134	-179	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+140	-188	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.779999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 17.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 109 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.0%/109 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 7.1%, L7 8.1%, season 9.0%, BVP 8.3%/109 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/30 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 18.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sánchez Over 18.5 (+140) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 21.779999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 17.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 109 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.0%/109 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 7.1%, L7 8.1%, season 9.0%, BVP 8.3%/109 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/30 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 18.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Over 17.5 (-172) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-176	+131	-
DK	17.5	-172	+129	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+132	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.790999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .873
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.0%, L7 25.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.1%, L7 7.3%, season 8.7%, BVP 8.5%/106 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 18.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Over 17.5 (-150) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 17.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-157	+117	-
DK	17.5	-150	+113	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+122	-
Fanatics	17.5	-180	+125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.168 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.49 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 49 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .209 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 28.0%, split 29.9%, L7 27.9%, season 25.3%, BVP 26.5%/49 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 12.0%, L7 9.7%, season 8.2%, BVP 6.1%/49 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Hunter Brown Under 17.5 (-119) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-117	-114	-
DK	17.5	-111	-119	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-120	-112	-
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.921 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.76 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 60 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .858
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 22.2%, season 20.8%, BVP 20.0%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.4%, L7 11.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.0%/60 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 16.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (-111) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.33 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-125	-110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-120	-112	-
DK	17.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-112	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.297 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.69 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.33 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 106 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .238 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.5%, L7 16.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.7%/106 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.7%, L7 8.0%, season 7.7%, BVP 2.8%/106 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 16.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Wacha Under 5.5 (-107) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.04, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .873
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.0%, L7 25.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Rhett Lowder Over 5.5 (+101) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.21 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.60, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 19 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .412 | OPS 1.297
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.2%, L7 18.9%, season 20.5%, BVP 21.1%/19 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Martin Perez Under 5.5 (-135) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 90 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .192 | OPS .518
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 21.2%, L7 16.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 16.7%/90 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 23/28 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 3.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Martín Pérez Under 5.5 (-140) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 90 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .192 | OPS .518
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 21.2%, L7 16.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 16.7%/90 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 23/28 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 3.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Freeland Over 5.5 (+121) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+121	-161	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.13 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 11.7 outs/3.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 190 PA | K% 13.7% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .307 | OPS .848
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 19.4%, L7 17.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.7%/190 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 (+126) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+105	Recommended
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+126	-168	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.28 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.71, BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 64 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 17.2% | AVG .216 | OPS .634
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 22.4%, L7 26.6%, season 22.8%, BVP 25.0%/64 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (+112) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Recommended
DK	5.5	+112	-148	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 109 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.0%/109 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sánchez Over 5.5 (+110) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 109 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.0%/109 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (+109) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-170	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 106 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .238 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.5%, L7 16.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.7%/106 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-156) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+118	-156	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 34 PA | K% 2.9% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 19.4%, L7 20.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 2.9%/34 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 17 play(s) (C 17)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Drew Anderson Over 1.5 (-119) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8165347915319379 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.3%, L7 19.2%, season 19.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 6.7%, L7 9.8%, season 7.5% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 13/47 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Soroka Under 1.5 (-145) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.1835306267093002 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 4.4 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Soroka: 16 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .533 | OPS 1.163
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.7%, L7 24.9%, season 21.9%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.9%, L7 6.5%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jack Perkins Over 1.5 (-171) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7804705449272948 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .520 | OPS 1.356
Opponent K profile: composite 15.1%, split 15.6%, L7 14.7%, season 18.3%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.7%, L7 8.3%, season 8.4%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/34 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Wacha Over 1.5 (+104) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7320730089447287 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 6.0 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .873
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.0%, L7 25.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.1%, L7 7.3%, season 8.7%, BVP 8.5%/106 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Janson Junk Under 1.5 (-228) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -228

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -228 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2832871940689612 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 4.2 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 13.7 outs/4.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 34.8% / under 65.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .586
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.4%, L7 18.3%, season 19.4% (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 10.2%, L7 9.5%, season 8.8% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Walker Buehler Over 1.5 (+142) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6930463462233043 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 38.7% / under 61.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .885
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.5%, L7 23.8%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 8.0%, L7 6.8%, season 8.3%, BVP 7.0%/43 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Johnson Under 2.5 (-193) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -193 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.186653678526165 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.0 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.4% / under 61.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 23 PA | K% 8.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .713
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 20.3%, L7 18.9%, season 23.2%, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 9.6%, L7 8.6%, season 9.0%, BVP 0.0%/23 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Misiorowski Over 1.5 (-103) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6643936648328772 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 53 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .174 | OPS .438
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 14.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 34.0%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.5%, L7 8.1%, season 9.2%, BVP 7.5%/53 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Max Fried Over 1.5 (-161) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6586638951184038 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 57 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .220 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.6%, L7 22.1%, season 21.1%, BVP 17.5%/57 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 6.7%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 10.5%/57 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sean Manaea Over 1.5 (+147) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6512523121831233 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.9% / under 62.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 27.0%, split 23.2%, L7 28.9%, season 24.7%, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 8.0%, L7 9.5%, season 9.8%, BVP 9.1%/22 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kevin Gausman Under 1.5 (-140) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3523342413705903 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 106 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .238 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.5%, L7 16.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.7%/106 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.7%, L7 8.0%, season 7.7%, BVP 2.8%/106 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 (-125) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3535655841310708 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 6.0 IP (BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 109 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.0%/109 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 7.1%, L7 8.1%, season 9.0%, BVP 8.3%/109 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/30 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Foster Griffin Over 1.5 (+120) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6150906801371634 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.0 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 14 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .083 | OPS .298
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.3%, L7 29.3%, season 24.1% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.0%, split 12.4%, L7 10.6%, season 9.5% (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (+113) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.605600909584776 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 6.2 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 78 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .481
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 23.4%, L7 29.8%, season 25.5%, BVP 38.5%/78 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.9%, L7 5.7%, season 9.4%, BVP 6.4%/78 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (-106) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6042557807076894 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.5 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 49 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .209 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 28.0%, split 29.9%, L7 27.9%, season 25.3%, BVP 26.5%/49 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 12.0%, L7 9.7%, season 8.2%, BVP 6.1%/49 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bailey Ober Under 1.5 (-117) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4592571651338553 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 4.8 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .709
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.2%, L7 21.4%, season 24.6%, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 11.0%, L7 7.4%, season 9.6%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Davis Martin Under 1.5 (-141) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.4744194504284116 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.4 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 68 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .407 | OPS 1.047
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 15.8%, L7 17.9%, season 21.1%, BVP 10.3%/68 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.5%, L7 7.7%, season 9.3%, BVP 11.8%/68 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 21 play(s) (C 21)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Braydon Fisher Over 0.5 (+230) diff 140.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +230

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.69 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 2.79)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 1.1 IP/GS; recent 1.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 1.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 28.0% / under 72.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Braydon Fisher: 12 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .091 | OPS .258
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.5%, L7 21.0%, season 22.9% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 19/72 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (-149) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.49, ERA 4.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 49 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .209 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 28.0%, split 29.9%, L7 27.9%, season 25.3%, BVP 26.5%/49 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (+102) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.55, ERA 3.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 12 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .258
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.6%, L7 20.5%, season 22.4% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/31 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (-155) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-155	+116	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.74 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 3.24, ERA 2.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 78 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .167 | OPS .481
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 23.4%, L7 29.8%, season 25.5%, BVP 38.5%/78 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-181) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-190	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.93 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 2.27, ERA 2.28)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.7% / under 60.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 53 PA | K% 34.0% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .174 | OPS .438
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 14.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 34.0%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 1.5 (-137) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.64 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 2.61, ERA 3.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 109 PA | K% 22.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .268 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.0%/109 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Under 2.5 (-157) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.10 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 4.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 14 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .083 | OPS .298
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.3%, L7 29.3%, season 24.1% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Under 2.5 (-133) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 4.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .885
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.5%, L7 23.8%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Freeland Over 2.5 (-127) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.92 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 5.42)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 11.7 outs/3.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 190 PA | K% 13.7% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .307 | OPS .848
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 19.4%, L7 17.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.7%/190 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Martin Perez Under 2.5 (-126) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-106	-126	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.12 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 3.29)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 90 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .192 | OPS .518
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 21.2%, L7 16.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 16.7%/90 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Blade Tidwell Over 2.5 (+100) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:45 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.00 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.64, ERA 5.42)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Blade Tidwell: 39 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .387 | OPS 1.068
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 20.3%, L7 19.6%, season 20.7%, BVP 15.4%/39 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/15 (20%) | Season 3/15 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Under 2.5 (-147) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 4.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 13.7 outs/4.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .586
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.4%, L7 18.3%, season 19.4% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Under 2.5 (-130) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-102	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.76 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 5.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.08x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .520 | OPS 1.356
Opponent K profile: composite 15.1%, split 15.6%, L7 14.7%, season 18.3%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 19/34 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Davis Martin Under 2.5 (-146) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	-
DK	2.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 5.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 68 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .407 | OPS 1.047
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 15.8%, L7 17.9%, season 21.1%, BVP 10.3%/68 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Kent Over 2.5 (+103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.30 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.49, ERA 5.69)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.4%, L7 21.7%, season 22.0% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.33 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/6 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Over 2.5 (+109) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.21 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 34 PA | K% 2.9% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 19.4%, L7 20.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 2.9%/34 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-147) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
DK	2.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.69, ERA 4.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 106 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .238 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.5%, L7 16.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 21.7%/106 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Patrick Sandoval Over 2.5 (+111) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+111	-148	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.89 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.28, ERA 5.13)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 64 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 17.2% | AVG .216 | OPS .634
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 22.4%, L7 26.6%, season 22.8%, BVP 25.0%/64 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Fried Under 1.5 (-108) Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-115	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.73 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.58, ERA 2.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.4% / under 48.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 57 PA | K% 17.5% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .220 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.6%, L7 22.1%, season 21.1%, BVP 17.5%/57 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bailey Ober Under 2.5 (-113) Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.70 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.86, ERA 4.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .709
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.2%, L7 21.4%, season 24.6%, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Wacha Under 2.5 (-106) Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-125	-106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 2.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 106 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .316 | OPS .873
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.0%, L7 25.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.9%/106 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	87.0	89.7	95.0	5	Curveball (43% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 37.4%, put-away 31.3%, xwOBA 0.225, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins	67.2	55.0	83.0	7	Curveball (32% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.249, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	65.8	69.7	66.5	3	Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	63.1	60.2	72.5	6	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	62.6	66.6	62.5	6	Slider (40% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels	60.6	65.0	60.0	6	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	60.0	55.7	65.0	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays	57.5	60.5	55.0	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	55.5	58.0	52.0	6	Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers	55.1	59.0	53.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	54.8	58.0	53.0	5	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	54.7	68.0	43.5	6	Changeup (39% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros	50.0	46.0	55.5	6	Changeup (28% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	48.8	42.1	55.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets	48.1	45.4	51.0	5	Curveball (30% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers	47.6	60.5	33.0	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	47.0	46.9	47.5	7	Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	46.7	49.0	48.0	6	Slurve (35% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	44.9	38.9	50.5	7	Slider (25% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	44.8	48.4	41.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	44.6	42.5	45.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles	42.9	46.4	37.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	42.2	39.2	44.0	6	Sweeper (43% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs	41.3	39.7	43.5	5	Changeup (35% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	40.9	47.5	30.0	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	40.6	45.0	34.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	40.5	42.7	34.0	4	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks	38.8	27.3	47.0	6	Changeup (24% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 14.9%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	35.5	36.0	32.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	R	21.9%	3.5	5.3	4.9	59	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	25.4%	4.2	4.5	4.5	70	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs	L	17.0%	4.9	5.1	5.1	82	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets	R	21.5%	5.6	5.8	5.8	94	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers	L	23.0%	4.9	5.0	5.0	82	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	R	25.5%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	R	16.8%	3.6	5.2	4.9	60	short	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	16.3%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	L	20.9%	4.8	5.6	5.5	80	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	L	17.7%	5.9	5.4	5.5	99	normal	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	23.9%	4.9	4.5	4.7	82	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals	R	26.7%	5.5	5.4	5.4	92	normal	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros	R	21.4%	6.4	6.3	6.3	107	deep	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	R	17.4%	5.8	5.0	5.1	97	normal	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	R	29.2%	6.4	6.6	6.6	107	deep	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	13.9%	3.5	5.0	4.7	59	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	34.8%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	95.00	5.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	R	18.2%	4.8	5.3	5.2	80	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles	L	19.5%	5.5	5.7	5.6	92	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins	L	25.9%	4.5	5.5	5.3	76	short	full	83.00	17.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	L	25.2%	6.2	6.2	6.2	104	deep	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	25.8%	1.7	2.3	2.4	28	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.5%	4.8	4.8	4.8	80	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.7%	4.7	5.0	5.1	79	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels	R	28.4%	5.2	5.9	6.0	87	normal	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	R	16.3%	5.4	5.6	5.6	91	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	R	25.2%	4.7	4.5	4.5	79	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers	R	28.6%	1.0	1.1	1.5	17	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	19.0%	4.5	4.6	4.9	76	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	20.6	3.0	17.5%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds	18.5	22.0	3.5	18.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.6	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (6 books) \| books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals	18.5	21.8	3.3	17.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (6 books) \| books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
Cristopher Sánchez	Cristopher Sánchez Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals	18.5	21.8	3.3	17.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros	17.5	19.8	2.3	13.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Over	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	18.2	0.7	3.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Hunter Brown	Hunter Brown Under	Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.