MLB Full Audit
MLB Full Audit
Tuesday, September 15 2026
MARKET TRUST TIERS
18 market(s) with settled tracker history| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 670 | 55% | -30.48u | 61 | 52% | -6.05u | 316 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 562 | 58% | +6.69u | 32 | 56% | -1.04u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 764 | 55% | -53.87u | 101 | 47% | -22.15u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 518 | 63% | +6.18u | 68 | 72% | +10.08u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 137 | 49% | -12.65u | 6 | 83% | +3.05u | 4 | 75% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA
What each market needs to move stages| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS
29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 87.0 | 89.7 | 95.0 | 5 | Curveball (43% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 37.4%, put-away 31.3%, xwOBA 0.225, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | 67.2 | 55.0 | 83.0 | 7 | Curveball (32% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.249, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 65.8 | 69.7 | 66.5 | 3 | Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds | 63.1 | 60.2 | 72.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (34% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | 62.6 | 66.6 | 62.5 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels | 60.6 | 65.0 | 60.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | 60.0 | 55.7 | 65.0 | 5 | Curveball (34% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Anderson | Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays | 57.5 | 60.5 | 55.0 | 5 | Changeup (37% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays | 55.5 | 58.0 | 52.0 | 6 | Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | 55.1 | 59.0 | 53.0 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 49% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | 54.8 | 58.0 | 53.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics | 54.7 | 68.0 | 43.5 | 6 | Changeup (39% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros | 50.0 | 46.0 | 55.5 | 6 | Changeup (28% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | 48.8 | 42.1 | 55.0 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets | 48.1 | 45.4 | 51.0 | 5 | Curveball (30% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers | 47.6 | 60.5 | 33.0 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | 47.0 | 46.9 | 47.5 | 7 | Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Soroka | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins | 46.7 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 6 | Slurve (35% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | 44.9 | 38.9 | 50.5 | 7 | Slider (25% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | 44.8 | 48.4 | 41.5 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Blade Tidwell | San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | 44.6 | 42.5 | 45.5 | 6 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles | 42.9 | 46.4 | 37.5 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | 42.2 | 39.2 | 44.0 | 6 | Sweeper (43% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | 41.3 | 39.7 | 43.5 | 5 | Changeup (35% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jackson Kent | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 40.9 | 47.5 | 30.0 | 5 | Changeup (37% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | 40.6 | 45.0 | 34.5 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | 40.5 | 42.7 | 34.0 | 4 | Split-Finger (32% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 38.8 | 27.3 | 47.0 | 6 | Changeup (24% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 14.9%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 35.5 | 36.0 | 32.0 | 6 | Slider (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS
29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins | R | 21.9% | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 59 | short | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 25.4% | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 70 | short | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.3% |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | L | 17.0% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets | R | 21.5% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers | L | 23.0% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 82 | short | full | 33.00 | 67.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | R | 25.5% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 16.8% | 3.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 60 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.6 IP/start |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 16.3% | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 82 | short | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | L | 20.9% | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 80 | short | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | L | 17.7% | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 99 | normal | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Drew Anderson | Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 23.9% | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 82 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | R | 26.7% | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 92 | normal | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros | R | 21.4% | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 107 | deep | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | R | 17.4% | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 97 | normal | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 29.2% | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 107 | deep | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 13.9% | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 59 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 34.8% | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 95.00 | 5.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | R | 18.2% | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 19.5% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | L | 25.9% | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 76 | short | full | 83.00 | 17.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | L | 25.2% | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 104 | deep | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 25.8% | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 28 | short | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | R | 21.5% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 80 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Blade Tidwell | San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 19.7% | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 28.4% | 5.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 87 | normal | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | R | 16.3% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics | R | 25.2% | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 79 | short | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers | R | 28.6% | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 17 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Jackson Kent | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 19.0% | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 76 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE
8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Jacob Misiorowski Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 20.6 | 3.0 | 17.5% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | 18.5 | 22.0 | 3.5 | 18.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.6 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | 18.5 | 21.8 | 3.3 | 17.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Cristopher Sánchez Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | 18.5 | 21.8 | 3.3 | 17.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books) |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 19.8 | 2.3 | 13.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min |
| Logan Gilbert | Logan Gilbert Over | Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 3.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Hunter Brown | Hunter Brown Under | Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.9 | -0.6 | 3.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES
98 candidates evaluated| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Drew Anderson Over | TIG@JAY | 7:08 PM | 3.5 | 5.0 | -145 | Fanatics Over 3.5 -145 | best price | 42.4% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Logan Gilbert Over | MAR@ANG | 9:38 PM | 6.5 | 8.7 | -121 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -115 | best price | 33.1% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Cristopher Sánchez Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 6.5 | 8.6 | -115 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -115 | exact | 32.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Outs | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRE@PIR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.6 | -125 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -114 | best price | 17.5% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Lake Bachar Over | BRE@PIR | 6:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -206 | DK Over 0.5 -206 | exact | 208.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Walks | Griffin Jax Over | ATH@RAY | 6:40 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -245 | DK Over 0.5 -245 | exact | 198.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Freeland Over | PAD@ROC | 8:40 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -218 | DK Over 0.5 -218 | exact | 131.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-202); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Hunter Brown Over | ROY@AST | 8:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.8 | -202 | DK Over 1.5 -202 | exact | 87.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Martin Perez Over | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -144 | DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact | 63.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-173); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Rhett Lowder Over | DOD@RED | 6:40 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -173 | DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact | 42.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-190); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Shane Baz Over | ORI@MET | 7:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -190 | DK Over 1.5 -190 | exact | 38.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Jackson Kent Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -164 | DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact | 33.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Lake Bachar Over | BRE@PIR | 6:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -178 | BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | best price | 140.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Manaea Over | ORI@MET | 7:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.9 | -147 | DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact | 93.3% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Andre Pallante Over | GIA@CAR | 7:45 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -150 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Soroka Over | MAR@DIA | 9:40 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -150 | DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Hunter Brown Over | ROY@AST | 8:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -153 | DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Rhett Lowder Over | DOD@RED | 6:40 PM | 2.5 | 3.2 | -135 | DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Anderson Under | TIG@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -163 | DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Over | MAR@ANG | 9:38 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -107 | DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✓––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 6.5 | 8.6 | -118 | BetOnline Over 6.5 -112 | best price | 32.6% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | DOD@RED | 6:40 PM | 7.5 | 9.9 | -112 | FanDuel Over 7.5 -111 | best price | 31.8% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Andre Pallante Over | GIA@CAR | 7:45 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -122 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 | best price | 26.5% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRE@PIR | 6:41 PM | 8.5 | 10.0 | +107 | FanDuel Over 8.5 +122 | best price | 17.8% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Under | MAR@ANG | 9:38 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -169 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 17.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Patrick Sandoval Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | +108 | Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 15.7% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jackson Kent Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -131 | BetOnline Over 3.5 -127 | best price | 15.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Over | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -112 | BetOnline Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 13.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Perkins Over | ATH@RAY | 6:40 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -165 | DK Over 3.5 -165 | exact | 12.5% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Manaea Under | ORI@MET | 7:10 PM | 6.5 | 6.0 | -154 | FanDuel Under 6.5 -142 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Hunter Brown Over | ROY@AST | 8:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -131 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Soroka Under | MAR@DIA | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -135 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Rhett Lowder Under | DOD@RED | 6:40 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -102 | DK Under 3.5 -102 | exact | 4.3% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Griffin Jax Under | ATH@RAY | 6:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -154 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 3.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bailey Ober Under | YAN@TWI | 7:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -155 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 2.9% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Over | PAD@ROC | 8:40 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | +110 | DK Over 3.5 +110 | exact | 1.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martin Perez Over | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -101 | BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 | best price | 1.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martín Pérez Over | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | +105 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | exact | 1.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Baz Over | ORI@MET | 7:10 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -140 | Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 0.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Outs | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | DOD@RED | 6:40 PM | 18.5 | 22.0 | +120 | BetMGM Over 18.5 +145 | best price | 18.8% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 18.5 | 21.8 | +134 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +140 | best price | 17.7% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books) | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sánchez Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 18.5 | 21.8 | +140 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +140 | exact | 17.7% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@AST | 8:10 PM | 17.5 | 19.8 | -172 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -170 | best price | 13.1% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Gilbert Over | MAR@ANG | 9:38 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -150 | DK Over 17.5 -150 | exact | 3.8% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Hunter Brown Under | ROY@AST | 8:10 PM | 17.5 | 16.9 | -119 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price | 3.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kevin Gausman Under | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | -111 | DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact | 1.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Wacha Under | ROY@AST | 8:10 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -107 | DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Hits All | Rhett Lowder Over | DOD@RED | 6:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | +101 | theScore Bet Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Martin Perez Under | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -135 | DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Martín Pérez Under | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -140 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Freeland Over | PAD@ROC | 8:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +121 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue | 10.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Patrick Sandoval Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | +126 | Fanatics Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +112 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sánchez Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +110 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kevin Gausman Over | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +109 | Fanatics Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Under | ORI@MET | 7:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -156 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Drew Anderson Over | TIG@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -119 | DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact | 21.1% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Michael Soroka Under | MAR@DIA | 9:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -145 | DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact | 21.1% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Walks | Jack Perkins Over | ATH@RAY | 6:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -171 | DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact | 18.7% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@AST | 8:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +104 | DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact | 15.5% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Janson Junk Under | MAR@DIA | 9:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -228 | DK Under 1.5 -228 | exact | 14.4% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Walker Buehler Over | PAD@ROC | 8:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +142 | DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact | 12.9% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Johnson Under | MAR@ANG | 9:38 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -193 | DK Under 2.5 -193 | exact | 12.5% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRE@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -103 | DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact | 11.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Max Fried Over | YAN@TWI | 7:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -161 | DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact | 10.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Sean Manaea Over | ORI@MET | 7:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +147 | DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact | 10.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Kevin Gausman Under | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -140 | DK Under 1.5 -140 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cristopher Sanchez Under | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -125 | DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Foster Griffin Over | SOX@GUA | 6:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +120 | DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact | 7.7% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | DOD@RED | 6:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +113 | DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact | 7.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Logan Gilbert Over | MAR@ANG | 9:38 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -106 | DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact | 7.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Bailey Ober Under | YAN@TWI | 7:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -117 | DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact | 2.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Davis Martin Under | SOX@GUA | 6:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -141 | DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact | 1.7% | ✓✗!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 28.0% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Braydon Fisher Over | TIG@JAY | 7:08 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | +230 | BetMGM Over 0.5 +230 | exact | 140.0% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Gilbert Over | MAR@ANG | 9:38 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -149 | DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Jax Over | ATH@RAY | 6:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +102 | Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price | 20.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | DOD@RED | 6:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob Misiorowski Under | BRE@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -181 | DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -137 | DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Foster Griffin Under | SOX@GUA | 6:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -157 | DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@ROC | 8:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -133 | DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Freeland Over | PAD@ROC | 8:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -127 | DK Over 2.5 -127 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Martin Perez Under | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -126 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Blade Tidwell Over | GIA@CAR | 7:45 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +100 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Janson Junk Under | MAR@DIA | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -147 | DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Perkins Under | ATH@RAY | 6:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -130 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Davis Martin Under | SOX@GUA | 6:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -146 | DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jackson Kent Over | PHI@NAT | 6:45 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +103 | DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Over | ORI@MET | 7:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +109 | DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kevin Gausman Under | BRA@CUB | 7:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -147 | DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Patrick Sandoval Over | SOX@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +111 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Max Fried Under | YAN@TWI | 7:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -108 | DK Under 1.5 -108 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bailey Ober Under | YAN@TWI | 7:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -113 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Wacha Under | ROY@AST | 8:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -106 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@AST | 8:10 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -131 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price | 17.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Max Fried Over | YAN@TWI | 7:40 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -154 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price | 13.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Over | SOX@GUA | 6:40 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -143 | DK Over 4.5 -143 | exact | 13.0% | ✓✗✓!–✓ | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Blade Tidwell Over | GIA@CAR | 7:45 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -130 | DK Over 3.5 -130 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context