MLB Bets 2026-09-14

Current generated report

Odds data use · 17346 / 20000 requests used (2654 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	167W–124L–0P	57%	-11.82 u	Last 14 days • 291 settled
Grade A	17W–13L–0P	57%	-1.42 u
Grade B	150W–111L–0P	57%	-10.40 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3921W–2486L–8P	61%	-282.46 u	All-time • 6415 settled
Grade A	287W–227L–0P	56%	-13.81 u
Grade B	3632W–2250L–8P	62%	-262.20 u

102 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Brandon Young	3.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Casey Mize	3.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Corbin Burnes	4.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Corbin Burnes (ARIZ)	3.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Gavin Williams	7.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Tarik Skubal	7.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	K Prop	Troy Melton	3.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Corbin Burnes	1.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Jonah Tong	1.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Jose Soriano	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Reid Detmers	2.5	-169	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Sandy Alcantara	2.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Will Warren	2.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Hits Allow	Sandy Alcantara	5.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Young	1.5	-201	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Walks	Casey Mize	1.5	-200	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Walks	Gavin Williams	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Walks	Jose Soriano	1.5	-188	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Walks	Landen Roupp	1.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Walks	Quinn Mathews	2.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-14	Pitcher Walks	Reynaldo Lopez	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-13	K Prop	Freddy Peralta	4.5	-157	-	LOSS	-1.000	Freddy Peralta: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-09-13	K Prop	Tanner Bibee	3.5	-163	-	WIN	+0.613	Tanner Bibee: 7.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-13	K Prop	Jacob Lopez	4.5	-131	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jacob Lopez: 3.0 (line 4.5)
2026-09-13	Pitcher Outs	Cam Schlittler	17.5	-158	-	WIN	+0.633	Cam Schlittler: 18.0 (line 17.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	664	55%	-29.56u	59	53%	-5.74u	312	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	560	58%	+7.08u	34	56%	-1.17u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	758	55%	-54.66u	103	45%	-25.91u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	511	63%	+5.39u	67	72%	+10.22u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	137	49%	-12.65u	6	83%	+3.05u	4	75%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 7 actionable / 21 total candidate(s); season N 664, 14d N 59	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 560, 14d N 34	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 20 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 20/20 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 137, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 854 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 823 pitcher(s), 3669 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 610 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 20 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 20 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 20 roster team(s), 280 hitter(s) \| 20 SP matchup(s), 972 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 280 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 20 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 20 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 20 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 371 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 10/10 game(s) with pitching props \| K 21 line(s)/10 game(s); Outs 21 line(s)/10 game(s); Hits Allowed 20 line(s)/10 game(s); Walks 15 line(s)/9 game(s); Earned Runs 20 line(s)/10 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 87, bovada_direct 6, betmgm 3, fanatics 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 274 market side(s) checked \| 274 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 10 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 659 \| batter bats 728 \| batter hand splits 137 \| pitcher HR splits 48 \| batter pitch-type 610 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 10 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 146 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	+128	-155	1.5 (-185)	-1.5 (+152)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-232	+188	-1.5 (-135)	1.5 (+112)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+114	-138	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+103	-124	1.5 (-206)	-1.5 (+169)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-130	+108	-1.5 (+129)	1.5 (-156)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	+119	-143	1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-208	+170	-1.5 (-133)	1.5 (+111)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-114	-106	-1.5 (+149)	1.5 (-181)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+113	-137	1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+155)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

4 Grade A | 18 Grade B | 45 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade…	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	ORI@MET	7:11 PM	3.5	4.8	-157	DK Over 3.5 -157 \| exact	35.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -156, pitch-type boost on 17% usage pitch, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade…	K Prop	Troy Melton Over	TIG@JAY	7:08 PM	3.5	4.7	-156	DK Over 3.5 -156 \| exact	32.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Casey Mize Over	PAD@ROC	8:41 PM	3.5	4.5	-150	FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 \| best price	29.6%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal	K Prop	Corbin Burnes Under	MAR@DIA	9:41 PM	4.5	3.4	-168	BetMGM Under 4.5 -160 \| best price	23.6%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (3 play(s))

Pitcher Walks - Nick Lodolo Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Quinn Mathews Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.17

Pitcher Earned Runs - Landen Roupp Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Brandon Young Over 3.5 (-157) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.62 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 4.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-164	+126	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-157	+123	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-
MyBookie	3.5	-165	+119	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+115	-
BetMGM	4.5	+150	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 35.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta -0.14
Brandon Young: K/9 7.0, proj 4.8K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .235 | OPS .669
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.5%, L7 19.1%, season 22.4%, active roster 23.4%/14 hitters, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Troy Melton Over 3.5 (-156) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-164	+125	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-156	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-166	+130	-
MyBookie	3.5	-165	+119	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 32.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Troy Melton: K/9 6.8, proj 4.7K over 5.7 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 17% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.2%, L7 18.8%, season 19.2%, active roster 19.6%/13 hitters (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 18.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.6% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/18 (78%) | Season 14/18 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -5.8 ppts (recent 14.2% vs season 20.0%, proj adj -2.9%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -156, pitch-type boost on 17% usage pitch, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Casey Mize Over 3.5 (-150) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-150	+118	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	-
BetMGM	4.5	+130	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 29.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Casey Mize: K/9 7.4, proj 4.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.289 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .320 | OPS .948
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 21.7%, L7 29.7%, season 23.0%, active roster 23.6%/14 hitters, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 36%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 29.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.65
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.8 ppts (recent 15.2% vs season 22.0%, proj adj -3.4%)
A-tier gate: 60% consensus, but diff_pct 29.6% >= 21.3% and raw gap 1.04 >= 1.00

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Corbin Burnes Under 4.5 (-168) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -168

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 UNDER | avg line 4.07 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-190	+135	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+124	-161	-
DK	4.5	+131	-168	Selected
MyBookie	4.5	+117	-163	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 23.6% vs 17% min; cushion -1.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.8% / under 59.2%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Corbin Burnes: K/9 8.4, proj 3.4K over 4.2 IP (season 3.0 IP/GS; outs market 13.2 outs/4.4 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 14.0% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 34.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Corbin Burnes: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 18.5%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.0%/14 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Miami Marlins 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: 50% consensus, but diff_pct 23.6% >= 21.3% and raw gap 1.06 >= 1.00

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (18 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Gavin Williams Over 7.5 (-142) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 7.62 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 7 books | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 8.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-145	+112	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-145	+110	-
DK	7.5	-142	+111	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-140	+110	Recommended
Fanatics	7.5	-145	+110	-
MyBookie	7.5	-148	+107	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-155	+110	-
BetMGM	8.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 11.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 49.5% vs 17% min; cushion +3.71K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta -0.14
Gavin Williams: K/9 13.7, proj 11.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.1% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Sweeper (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 85 PA | K% 32.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .210 | OPS .598
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 85 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.2%, split 25.2%, L7 28.0%, season 24.1%, active roster 24.9%/14 hitters, BVP 32.9%/85 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 25.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 28.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.40 | Season Avg 7.86
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +1.54 vs season
K% trend: support +6.3 ppts (recent 39.8% vs season 33.5%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -142 -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 3.71K, diff 49.5%, books 86%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Corbin Burnes (ARIZ) Over 3.5 (-165) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 42.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.3% / under 41.7%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.0%/14 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.0% (14 hitters)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 (-118) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 7.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 7.38 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 7 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 7.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	7.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Bovada Direct	7.5	-120	-110	-
DK	7.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-120	-106	-
Fanatics	7.5	-115	-115	-
MyBookie	7.5	-117	-117	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.7K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 28.9% vs 17% min; cushion +2.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Tarik Skubal: K/9 10.5, proj 9.7K over 6.2 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 23.3% | xwOBA 0.270 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 63 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .170 | OPS .476
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 63 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 24.6%, L7 27.0%, season 25.4%, active roster 25.8%/14 hitters, BVP 30.2%/63 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 37%; L7 team K% 27.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/23 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.13
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 121 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 2.17K, diff 28.9%, books 86%)

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Casey Mize Under 5.5 (-101) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-131	-101	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.89 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .320 | OPS .948
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.7%, L7 29.7%, season 23.0%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/23 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (-164) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 6.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-165	+125	-
DK	5.5	-164	+123	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-
Fanatics	6.5	+115	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 93 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .207 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.3%, L7 17.9%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.3%/93 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/31 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 6.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-164) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jose Soriano Over 1.5 (-188) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -188 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.688489079447856 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 79.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.4 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .776
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 25.0%, season 22.9%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.5%, L7 13.3%, season 9.3%, BVP 7.7%/39 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-188) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Landen Roupp Over 1.5 (-187) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.576128810364414 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.49 over 5.0 IP (BB% 11.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 33 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 15.2% | AVG .286 | OPS .751
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 20.3%, L7 19.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 8.6%, L7 9.1%, season 8.4%, BVP 15.2%/33 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/28 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-187) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Reynaldo Lopez Over 1.5 (-171) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1379133980511966 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.19x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 16.4% | AVG .222 | OPS .719
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.9%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.6%, split 11.2%, L7 10.3%, season 10.7%, BVP 16.4%/55 PA (adj 1.19x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 9/25 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-155) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.045087578184079 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 85 PA | K% 32.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .210 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 25.2%, L7 28.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 32.9%/85 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.0%, L7 12.3%, season 9.5%, BVP 9.4%/85 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Casey Mize Under 1.5 (-200) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.0095920910885994 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 4.7 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.6% / under 62.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.84x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .320 | OPS .948
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.7%, L7 29.7%, season 23.0%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.2%, split 8.0%, L7 5.4%, season 8.3%, BVP 0.0%/26 PA (adj 0.84x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-200) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Quinn Mathews Under 2.5 (-187) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -187 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8336848988911296 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.0 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Quinn Mathews: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .918
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 23.9%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 6.3%, L7 7.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 9.1%/22 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/6 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-187) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brandon Young Over 1.5 (-201) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -201 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -201 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.819206016102603 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.5% / under 37.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .235 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.5%, L7 19.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 7.0%, L7 9.9%, season 8.6%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-201); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Over 1.5 (-167) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-167	+126	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.80, ERA 4.04)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .776
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 25.0%, season 22.9%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Corbin Burnes Over 1.5 (-119) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.32, ERA 4.14)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 3.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 13.2 outs/4.4 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Corbin Burnes: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.5%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 0/1 (0%) | L10 0/1 (0%) | L20 0/1 (0%) | Season 0/1 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/1 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-169) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+127	-169	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.82 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.42, ERA 2.35)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 88 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .287 | OPS .790
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.0%, L7 20.0%, season 23.1%, BVP 21.6%/88 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.24 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jonah Tong Over 1.5 (-145) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.62)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 22.5%, L7 31.5%, season 24.7% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Under 2.5 (-165) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.2% / Under 57.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.75 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.82, ERA 3.41)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.2% / under 57.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .600
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 18.9%, L7 26.1%, season 21.1%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-165) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (-134) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.36 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 4.51)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 93 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .207 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.3%, L7 17.9%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.3%/93 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/31 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (45 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 14 play(s) (B 5 | C 9)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jonah Tong Under 5.5 (-116) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-115	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-109	-116	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	-
MyBookie	5.5	-119	-116	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.3% / under 50.7%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jonah Tong: K/9 8.6, proj 4.6K over 4.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 22.5%, L7 31.5%, season 24.7%, active roster 27.1%/14 hitters (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 31.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 27.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (-143) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-143	+110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-143	+112	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-
MyBookie	4.5	-145	+105	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 7/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dean Kremer: K/9 8.6, proj 5.2K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Split-Finger: 28.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 107 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .669
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 107 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.3%, season 24.6%, active roster 25.1%/14 hitters, BVP 24.3%/107 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.93
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Weather: +8% run env ✓ Over | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 6.5 (-118) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	-115	-112	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	6.5	-115	-115	-
MyBookie	6.5	-119	-116	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 9.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reid Detmers: K/9 10.0, proj 7.1K over 6.1 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 32.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 88 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .287 | OPS .790
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 88 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.0%, L7 20.0%, season 23.1%, active roster 22.4%/14 hitters, BVP 21.6%/88 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Seattle Mariners 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 79%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.59
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Quinn Mathews Over 4.5 (-148) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-145	+112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-
MyBookie	4.5	-148	+107	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Quinn Mathews: K/9 8.6, proj 4.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 13.8% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Quinn Mathews: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .918
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 23.9%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.7%/13 hitters, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 14%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.67 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 2/6 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 3.5 (-127) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-130	+101	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
DK	3.5	-127	+100	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-122	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	3.5	-133	-103	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.8% / under 47.2%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 5.6, proj 3.6K over 6.1 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.8% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 93 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .207 | OPS .601
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 93 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 16.3%, L7 17.9%, season 19.3%, active roster 20.0%/14 hitters, BVP 18.3%/93 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 70%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/31 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.61
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.3 ppts (recent 9.9% vs season 17.2%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+104) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+104	-133	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-130	-
MyBookie	5.5	-104	-133	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jose Soriano: K/9 7.7, proj 6.6K over 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Curveball (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .776
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.4%, L7 25.0%, season 22.9%, active roster 22.8%/14 hitters, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Detroit Tigers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 47%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -1.41 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.0 ppts (recent 15.6% vs season 22.6%, proj adj -3.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-174) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 3.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 3.07 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 3.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 2.5 +142; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	2.5	-185	+140	-
FanDuel	2.5	-184	+142	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+300	-550	-
BetMGM	3.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	3.5	+132	-172	Recommended
DK	3.5	+136	-174	Selected
MyBookie	3.5	+124	-173	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 2.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.0% / under 60.0%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Tomoyuki Sugano: K/9 5.9, proj 2.9K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.7% | put-away% 12.2% | xwOBA 0.386 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 33 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .212 | OPS .576
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 20.6%, L7 16.1%, season 21.6%, active roster 22.8%/13 hitters, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; San Diego Padres 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 50%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 16.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.23
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Landen Roupp Under 4.5 (-158) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.2% / Under 57.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+124	-158	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-
MyBookie	4.5	+111	-154	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.2% / under 57.8%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Landen Roupp: K/9 7.3, proj 3.8K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 25.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 33 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 15.2% | AVG .286 | OPS .751
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 20.3%, L7 19.7%, season 20.7%, active roster 22.1%/14 hitters, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.96
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.46 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.9 ppts (recent 13.9% vs season 21.8%, proj adj -4.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 (-123) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -123

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	-103	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-
MyBookie	4.5	-101	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.7, proj 4.0K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.380 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 90 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .284 | OPS .871
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 90 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.1%, L7 19.3%, season 20.5%, active roster 18.4%/14 hitters, BVP 22.2%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 47%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reynaldo Lopez Over 4.5 (-101) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-101	-127	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-
Fanatics	4.5	+100	-130	-
MyBookie	4.5	-101	-136	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.3% / under 52.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reynaldo Lopez: K/9 8.8, proj 4.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 31.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 16.4% | AVG .222 | OPS .719
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.9%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 7/25 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.84
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reynaldo López Over 4.5 (+100) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Reynaldo López: K/9 8.8, proj 4.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 31.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 16.4% | AVG .222 | OPS .719
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.9%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 7/25 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.84
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kade Anderson Under 5.5 (+104) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +104

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-135	+104	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-133	+104	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	-
MyBookie	5.5	-138	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.8% / under 46.2%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kade Anderson: K/9 7.7, proj 5.0K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/4 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 37.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.9%, L7 26.6%, season 25.4%, active roster 26.9%/14 hitters (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 25.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 26.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/4 (100%) | L10 4/4 (100%) | L20 4/4 (100%) | Season 4/4 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/4 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Will Warren Over 4.5 (+109) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	-
MyBookie	4.5	+102	-141	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.36K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Will Warren: K/9 8.9, proj 4.9K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .600
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.9%, L7 26.1%, season 21.1%, active roster 20.9%/13 hitters, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 26.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 4.5 (-147) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -147

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+116	-147	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	-
MyBookie	4.5	+107	-148	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.8% / under 56.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
David Peterson: K/9 8.9, proj 4.5K over 4.7 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 28.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 156 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .250 | OPS .723
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 156 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.4%, L7 18.0%, season 21.6%, active roster 22.7%/13 hitters, BVP 27.6%/156 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Atlanta Braves 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.03
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 24.0% vs season 19.5%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (B 1 | C 5)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Gavin Williams Under 17.5 (-110) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 17.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-115	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-117	-114	-
DK	17.5	-120	-110	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-110	Recommended
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.297 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.78 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 79, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 79
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 85 PA | K% 32.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .210 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 25.2%, L7 28.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 32.9%/85 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.0%, L7 12.3%, season 9.5%, BVP 9.4%/85 PA (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 17.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 (+134) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+140	-190	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+140	-180	-
Caesars	18.5	+136	-182	-
DK	18.5	+134	-179	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+148	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 21.262999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 14.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.66 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 63 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .170 | OPS .476
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 24.6%, L7 27.0%, season 25.4%, BVP 30.2%/63 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 11.4%, L7 8.7%, season 9.4%, BVP 6.3%/63 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/23 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.20 | Season Avg 18.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.76 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.76 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Over 17.5 (-142) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-135	+100	-
DK	17.5	-142	+107	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.017 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 88 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .287 | OPS .790
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.0%, L7 20.0%, season 23.1%, BVP 21.6%/88 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.2%, L7 8.0%, season 9.0%, BVP 8.0%/88 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 17.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.52 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.52 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 17.5 (-171) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.64 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 18.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-200	+145	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	17.5	-165	+125	Recommended
DK	17.5	-171	+129	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-
Fanatics	18.5	+135	-195	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.242 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.41 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.1% / under 40.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.64 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 93 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .207 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.3%, L7 17.9%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.3%/93 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.2%, L7 8.2%, season 8.8%, BVP 7.5%/93 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 26/31 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 19.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jose Soriano Under 17.5 (-114) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 17.5 -114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-120	-115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-112	-120	-
DK	17.5	-116	-114	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-114	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.121000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.80 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .776
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 25.0%, season 22.9%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.5%, L7 13.3%, season 9.3%, BVP 7.7%/39 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 16.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Under 17.5 (-110) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 17.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-115	-118	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-118	-113	-
DK	17.5	-120	-110	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-110	Recommended
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.193 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.17 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 89
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.2%, L7 18.8%, season 19.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 6.5%, L7 8.1%, season 7.5% (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — David Peterson Over 5.5 (+120) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.25 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.68, BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 156 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .250 | OPS .723
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.4%, L7 18.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 27.6%/156 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Troy Melton Under 5.5 (-115) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.2%, L7 18.8%, season 19.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 6.5 (-112) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-125	-115	-
DK	6.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.3 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.26 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.50, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 33 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .212 | OPS .576
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 20.6%, L7 16.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 (-132) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.155336263826184 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 4.9 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 33 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .212 | OPS .576
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 20.6%, L7 16.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 9.9%, L7 8.6%, season 9.3%, BVP 0.0%/33 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 (-133) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.1695987908517937 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.19 over 5.9 IP (BB% 4.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 63 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .170 | OPS .476
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 24.6%, L7 27.0%, season 25.4%, BVP 30.2%/63 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 11.4%, L7 8.7%, season 9.4%, BVP 6.3%/63 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Corbin Burnes Over 1.5 (-118) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7679350417700945 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 3.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 13.2 outs/4.4 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Corbin Burnes: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.5%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.0%, L7 7.9%, season 9.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/1 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-120) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7571037203952031 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 88 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .287 | OPS .790
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.0%, L7 20.0%, season 23.1%, BVP 21.6%/88 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.2%, L7 8.0%, season 9.0%, BVP 8.0%/88 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sandy Alcantara Over 1.5 (-161) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7498038178852393 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.9 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 93 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .207 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.3%, L7 17.9%, season 19.3%, BVP 18.3%/93 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.2%, L7 8.2%, season 8.8%, BVP 7.5%/93 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 14/31 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — David Peterson Over 1.5 (-163) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7309896260739872 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 156 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .250 | OPS .723
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.4%, L7 18.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 27.6%/156 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.1%, L7 6.7%, season 7.7%, BVP 9.6%/156 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nick Lodolo Under 2.5 (-197) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1630964400176587 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.9% / under 62.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 90 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .284 | OPS .871
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.1%, L7 19.3%, season 20.5%, BVP 22.2%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 9.7%, L7 13.4%, season 10.0%, BVP 10.0%/90 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Troy Melton Under 1.5 (-148) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4673122592789882 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.5 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.2%, L7 18.8%, season 19.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 6.5%, L7 8.1%, season 7.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 14 play(s) (C 14)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Newcomb Over 0.5 (+135) diff 160.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+135	-190	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.99 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 4.43)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 1.9 IP/GS; recent 1.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.4% / under 60.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Newcomb: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .138 | OPS .415
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.3%, L7 18.7%, season 21.1%, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 15/54 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Quinn Mathews Over 1.5 (-170) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-170	+128	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.32, ERA 4.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Quinn Mathews: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .918
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 23.9%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-106) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.24 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 2.78, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 85 PA | K% 32.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .210 | OPS .598
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 25.2%, L7 28.0%, season 24.1%, BVP 32.9%/85 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Lodolo Over 2.5 (-103) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-103	-129	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.71 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 5.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 90 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .284 | OPS .871
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.1%, L7 19.3%, season 20.5%, BVP 22.2%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Under 2.5 (+109) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+100	-
DK	2.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 26 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .320 | OPS .948
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.7%, L7 29.7%, season 23.0%, BVP 23.1%/26 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-172) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.89 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 3.68)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 33 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 15.2% | AVG .286 | OPS .751
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 20.3%, L7 19.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-144) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	-
DK	2.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 3.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.2%, L7 18.8%, season 19.2% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — David Peterson Under 2.5 (-143) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.71 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.08, ERA 5.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 156 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .250 | OPS .723
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.4%, L7 18.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 27.6%/156 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.66
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kade Anderson Under 2.5 (-165) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+124	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.32, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 24.9%, L7 26.6%, season 25.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Over 2.5 (+124) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	-
DK	2.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.55 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.54, ERA 4.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .235 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.5%, L7 19.1%, season 22.4%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 (-112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	-
DK	2.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.70 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 4.83)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 16.4% | AVG .222 | OPS .719
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.9%, L7 16.9%, season 21.2%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 (-119) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.45 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 2.66, ERA 2.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 63 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .170 | OPS .476
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 24.6%, L7 27.0%, season 25.4%, BVP 30.2%/63 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 2.5 (-150) Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.88 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 5.88)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 107 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.2%, L7 21.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 24.3%/107 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-102) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-130	-102	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 3.5 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.22 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.76, ERA 6.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 33 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .212 | OPS .576
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 20.6%, L7 16.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

20 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	67.8	68.5	72.5	5	Changeup (47% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	63.7	62.7	69.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	62.9	72.6	57.0	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 32.1%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	56.8	49.0	62.0	5	Changeup (42% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	56.7	51.2	63.0	5	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jonah Tong	New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles	55.6	49.6	59.0	4	Changeup (35% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays	54.0	50.9	59.0	6	Slider (33% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	53.1	49.0	58.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers	52.1	60.8	45.5	5	Curveball (44% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Newcomb	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	51.5	49.6	55.5	6	Slurve (30% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kade Anderson	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels	50.6	45.6	53.0	4	Curveball (33% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	48.4	54.6	43.0	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks	48.3	42.0	55.0	7	Changeup (28% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets	47.2	47.0	46.5	5	Slider (40% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins	46.7	47.5	45.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs	44.7	50.0	40.0	4	Slider (35% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	42.7	46.4	37.0	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Corbin Burnes	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	36.8	38.5	46.5	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	34.0	44.3	17.5	4	Curveball (42% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.380, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	26.2	33.2	14.5	7	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.386, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

20 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Corbin Burnes	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins	R	22.2%	-	3.0	5.5	92	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 3.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs	R	22.0%	4.7	4.5	4.6	79	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets	R	17.7%	5.1	5.6	5.5	86	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	L	21.1%	3.9	5.0	4.8	65	short	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Sean Newcomb	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	L	22.9%	1.7	1.9	3.4	28	short	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	18.4%	4.5	5.0	4.9	76	short	full	17.50	82.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	R	35.7%	4.7	5.8	6.0	79	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	R	14.6%	4.8	5.3	5.2	80	short	full	14.50	85.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	18.0%	5.3	6.0	5.9	89	normal	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	L	28.9%	6.6	5.8	6.0	111	deep	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	29.2%	6.3	6.1	6.1	106	deep	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	14.6%	5.8	6.5	6.3	97	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	R	22.2%	4.6	5.1	5.0	77	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Jonah Tong	New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles	R	21.6%	3.6	5.0	5.3	60	short	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins	R	23.2%	4.8	5.2	5.1	80	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	R	19.6%	4.5	5.2	5.0	76	short	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.1%	5.3	5.4	5.4	89	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kade Anderson	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels	L	20.4%	5.1	5.2	5.5	86	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	L	21.9%	5.0	5.1	5.3	84	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers	R	20.2%	5.7	5.6	5.6	96	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds	18.5	21.3	2.8	14.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.76 <= 3 min
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	20.0	2.5	14.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.52 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	18.2	0.7	4.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.3	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jose Soriano	Jose Soriano Under	Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Under	Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Under	Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.2%	B	MONITOR	research	short	6.0	79	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.