SacBoyz Signals
MLB Full Audit

MLB Full Audit

Monday, September 14 2026

SacBoyzSignals.com

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WRReview-only N
K Prop✅ TRUSTED66455%-29.56u5953%-5.74u31256%64
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED56058%+7.08u3456%-1.17u450%6
Run Line✅ TRUSTED17358%+7.01u0-+0.00u4661%1
Batter Walks👀 WATCH208474%-55.49u0-+0.00u875%134
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH75855%-54.66u10345%-25.91u1100%9
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH51163%+5.39u6772%+10.22u0-11
Batter Hits👀 WATCH5571%-0.17u0-+0.00u0-23
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH3551%-1.50u0-+0.00u0-37
F5 ML👀 WATCH3044%+2.54u0-+0.00u0-0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH1127%-5.27u0-+0.00u0-0
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-0
NRFI👀 WATCH520%-2.00u0-+0.00u0-4
YRFI👀 WATCH450%-2.00u0-+0.00u0-7
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH13749%-12.65u683%+3.05u475%8
Total🔬 RESEARCH6239%-13.07u0-+0.00u1100%7
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH3842%-10.07u0-+0.00u10%6
No HR🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u0-+0.00u0-0
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED60952%-60.11u0-+0.00u8653%355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d P&L non-negative
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d sample >= 10
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted5/5No blocker
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

20 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Tarik SkubalLos Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds67.868.572.55Changeup (47% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid DetmersLos Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners63.762.769.05Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gavin WilliamsCleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox62.972.657.05Sweeper (43% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 32.1%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Quinn MathewsSt. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants56.849.062.05Changeup (42% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Casey MizeSan Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies56.751.263.05Split-Finger (32% whiff, 24% usage)Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jonah TongNew York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles55.649.659.04Changeup (35% whiff, 31% usage)Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Troy MeltonDetroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays54.050.959.06Slider (33% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals53.149.058.55Curveball (34% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José SorianoToronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers52.160.845.55Curveball (44% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean NewcombChicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians51.549.655.56Slurve (30% whiff, 31% usage)Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kade AndersonSeattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels50.645.653.04Curveball (33% whiff, 16% usage)Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Dean KremerMinnesota Twins vs New York Yankees48.454.643.06Split-Finger (38% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy AlcantaraMiami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks48.342.055.07Changeup (28% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon YoungBaltimore Orioles vs New York Mets47.247.046.55Slider (40% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will WarrenNew York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins46.747.545.06Changeup (29% whiff, 13% usage)Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Reynaldo LópezAtlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs44.750.040.04Slider (35% whiff, 31% usage)Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
David PetersonChicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves42.746.437.05Curveball (33% whiff, 10% usage)Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Corbin BurnesArizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins36.838.546.55Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick LodoloCincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers34.044.317.54Curveball (42% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.380, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki SuganoColorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres26.233.214.57Split-Finger (31% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.386, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

20 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Corbin BurnesArizona Diamondbacks vs Miami MarlinsR22.2%-3.05.592shortfull46.5053.50season+savant+savant_quality+handseason leash 3.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Reynaldo LópezAtlanta Braves vs Chicago CubsR22.0%4.74.54.679shortfull40.0060.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Brandon YoungBaltimore Orioles vs New York MetsR17.7%5.15.65.586shortfull46.5053.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start
David PetersonChicago Cubs vs Atlanta BravesL21.1%3.95.04.865shortfull37.0063.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.9 IP/start
Sean NewcombChicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansL22.9%1.71.93.428shortfull55.5044.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 1.7 IP/start
Nick LodoloCincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersL18.4%4.55.04.976shortfull17.5082.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Gavin WilliamsCleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxR35.7%4.75.86.079shortfull57.0043.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Tomoyuki SuganoColorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresR14.6%4.85.35.280shortfull14.5085.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start
Troy MeltonDetroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue JaysR18.0%5.36.05.989normalfull59.0041.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 19.2%
Reid DetmersLos Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersL28.9%6.65.86.0111deepfull69.0031.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Tarik SkubalLos Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsL29.2%6.36.16.1106deepfull72.5027.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Sandy AlcantaraMiami Marlins vs Arizona DiamondbacksR14.6%5.86.56.397normalfull55.0045.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 19.3%
Dean KremerMinnesota Twins vs New York YankeesR22.2%4.65.15.077shortfull43.0057.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Jonah TongNew York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesR21.6%3.65.05.360shortfull59.0041.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Will WarrenNew York Yankees vs Minnesota TwinsR23.2%4.85.25.180shortfull45.0055.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start
Casey MizeSan Diego Padres vs Colorado RockiesR19.6%4.55.25.076shortfull63.0037.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs St. Louis CardinalsR19.1%5.35.45.489normalfull58.5041.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Kade AndersonSeattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsL20.4%5.15.25.586shortfull53.0047.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start
Quinn MathewsSt. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco GiantsL21.9%5.05.15.384shortfull62.0038.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start
José SorianoToronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersR20.2%5.75.65.696normalfull45.5054.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Tarik SkubalTarik Skubal OverLos Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds18.521.32.814.9%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.1106season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.76 <= 3 min
Reid DetmersReid Detmers OverSeattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels17.520.02.514.4%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.0111season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.52 <= 3 min
Sandy AlcantaraSandy Alcantara OverMiami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks17.518.20.74.2%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal6.397season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jose SorianoJose Soriano UnderDetroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays17.517.1-0.42.2%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.696season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy MeltonTroy Melton UnderDetroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays17.517.2-0.31.8%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.989season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gavin WilliamsGavin Williams UnderChicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians17.517.3-0.21.2%BMONITORresearchshort6.079season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

67 candidates evaluated
← Back to Picks
GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffSignal Breakdown ✓!✗–Tier
► Best Signals
A✅ Best Signal
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade…
K PropBrandon Young OverORI@MET7:11 PM3.54.8-157DK Over 3.5 -157 | exact35.8%✓✓✓✓––Best Signal
A✅ Best Signal
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -156, pitch-type boost on 17% usage pitch, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade…
K PropTroy Melton OverTIG@JAY7:08 PM3.54.7-156DK Over 3.5 -156 | exact32.9%✓✓✓✓––Best Signal
A✅ Best Signal
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash
K PropCasey Mize OverPAD@ROC8:41 PM3.54.5-150FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 | best price29.6%✓✓✓✓––Best Signal
A✅ Best SignalK PropCorbin Burnes UnderMAR@DIA9:41 PM4.53.4-168BetMGM Under 4.5 -160 | best price23.6%✓✓✓✓––Best Signal
► Add Signals
B✅ Add Signal
Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather:…
K PropGavin Williams OverSOX@GUA6:41 PM7.511.2-142FanDuel Over 7.5 -140 | best price49.5%✓✓✓!–!Add Signal
B🔬 Research Only
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash
K PropCorbin Burnes (ARIZ) OverMAR@DIA9:41 PM3.55.0-165Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -165 | exact42.0%✓✓!–––Add Signal
B✅ Add Signal
Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 121 vs LHP — tough platoon matc…
K PropTarik Skubal OverDOD@RED6:41 PM7.59.7-118BetOnline Over 7.5 -114 | best price28.9%✓✓!!––Add Signal
B✅ Add Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Hits AllCasey Mize UnderPAD@ROC8:41 PM5.54.3-101Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +105 | best price21.8%✓✓!––!Add Signal
B✅ Add Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Hits AllSandy Alcantara OverMAR@DIA9:41 PM5.56.4-164BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price16.4%✓✓✓––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
Pitcher WalksJose Soriano OverTIG@JAY7:08 PM1.52.7-188DK Over 1.5 -188 | exact79.2%✓✓!––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
Pitcher WalksLanden Roupp OverGIA@CAR7:46 PM1.52.6-187DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact71.7%✓✓!––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksReynaldo Lopez OverBRA@CUB7:41 PM1.52.1-171DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact42.5%✓✓!–––Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over
Pitcher WalksGavin Williams OverSOX@GUA6:41 PM1.52.0-155DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact36.3%✓✓!!–!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher WalksCasey Mize UnderPAD@ROC8:41 PM1.51.0-200DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact32.7%✓✓!––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
Pitcher WalksQuinn Mathews UnderGIA@CAR7:46 PM2.51.8-187DK Under 2.5 -187 | exact26.7%✓✓!––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-201); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksBrandon Young OverORI@MET7:11 PM1.51.8-201DK Over 1.5 -201 | exact21.3%✓!!––✓Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)
Pitcher Earned RJose Soriano OverTIG@JAY7:08 PM1.52.4-167BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price60.0%✓✓✓––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Earned RCorbin Burnes OverMAR@DIA9:41 PM1.52.2-119DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact46.7%✓✓!––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RReid Detmers UnderMAR@ANG9:39 PM2.51.8-169BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price28.0%✓✓!–––Add Signal
B👀 Watch SignalPitcher Earned RJonah Tong OverORI@MET7:11 PM1.51.9-145DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact26.7%✓✓!––✓Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under
Pitcher Earned RWill Warren UnderYAN@TWI7:41 PM2.52.0-165BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | exact20.0%✓✓!!–!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Earned RSandy Alcantara OverMAR@DIA9:41 PM2.53.0-134DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact20.0%✓✓✓––!Add Signal
► Lean Signals (Derisked)
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree
K PropJose Soriano OverTIG@JAY7:08 PM5.56.6+104Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price20.0%✓✓✗!––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropTomoyuki Sugano UnderPAD@ROC8:41 PM3.52.9-174BetOnline Under 3.5 -172 | best price16.6%✓✗!✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropLanden Roupp UnderGIA@CAR7:46 PM4.53.9-158FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price14.4%✓✗!✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropNick Lodolo UnderDOD@RED6:41 PM4.54.0-123DK Under 4.5 -123 | exact10.1%✓✗!✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropReynaldo Lopez OverBRA@CUB7:41 PM4.54.9-101BetOnline Over 4.5 +103 | best price9.4%✓✗✗✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropReynaldo López OverBRA@CUB7:41 PM4.54.9+100Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact9.4%✓✗✗✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropKade Anderson UnderMAR@ANG9:39 PM5.55.0+104BetMGM Under 5.5 +105 | best price8.4%✓✗!!––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropWill Warren OverYAN@TWI7:41 PM4.54.9+109Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price8.1%✓✗✗✓–✓Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropDavid Peterson UnderBRA@CUB7:41 PM4.54.5-147BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price0.3%✓✗!✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.76 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsTarik Skubal OverDOD@RED6:41 PM18.521.3+134FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 | best price14.9%✓✗✗––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.52 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsReid Detmers OverMAR@ANG9:39 PM17.520.0-142FanDuel Over 17.5 -132 | best price14.4%✓✗✓–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsSandy Alcantara OverMAR@DIA9:41 PM17.518.2-171Caesars Over 17.5 -165 | best price4.2%✓✗✓––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsJose Soriano UnderTIG@JAY7:08 PM17.517.1-114FanDuel Under 17.5 -114 | best price2.2%✓✗✓––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsTroy Melton UnderTIG@JAY7:08 PM17.517.2-110FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price1.8%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllDavid Peterson OverBRA@CUB7:41 PM5.55.8+120BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue5.5%✓✗✗–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllTroy Melton UnderTIG@JAY7:08 PM5.55.3-115DK Under 5.5 -115 | exact3.6%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllTomoyuki Sugano UnderPAD@ROC8:41 PM6.56.3-112DK Under 6.5 -112 | exact3.1%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher WalksTomoyuki Sugano UnderPAD@ROC8:41 PM1.51.2-132DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact23.0%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
Pitcher WalksTarik Skubal UnderDOD@RED6:41 PM1.51.2-133theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price22.0%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher WalksCorbin Burnes OverMAR@DIA9:41 PM1.51.8-118DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact17.9%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - DeriskedPitcher WalksReid Detmers OverMAR@ANG9:39 PM1.51.8-120DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact17.1%✓!!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher WalksSandy Alcantara OverMAR@DIA9:41 PM1.51.7-161DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact16.7%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - DeriskedPitcher WalksDavid Peterson OverBRA@CUB7:41 PM1.51.7-163DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact15.4%✓!!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
Pitcher WalksNick Lodolo UnderDOD@RED6:41 PM2.52.2-197DK Under 2.5 -197 | exact13.5%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksTroy Melton UnderTIG@JAY7:08 PM1.51.5-148DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact2.2%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher Earned RSean Newcomb OverSOX@GUA6:41 PM0.51.3+135Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | best price160.0%✓✓✗!–!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher Earned RQuinn Mathews OverGIA@CAR7:46 PM1.52.3-170DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact53.3%✓✓✗––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher Earned RGavin Williams OverSOX@GUA6:41 PM1.51.8-106BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price20.0%✓!✗!–!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher Earned RNick Lodolo OverDOD@RED6:41 PM2.53.0-103BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price20.0%✓✓✗––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Earned RCasey Mize UnderPAD@ROC8:41 PM2.52.1+109DK Under 2.5 +109 | exact16.0%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)
Pitcher Earned RLanden Roupp UnderGIA@CAR7:46 PM2.52.2-172DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact12.0%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RTroy Melton UnderTIG@JAY7:08 PM2.52.3-144DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact8.0%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RDavid Peterson UnderBRA@CUB7:41 PM2.52.3-143DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact8.0%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RKade Anderson UnderMAR@ANG9:39 PM2.52.3-165BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price8.0%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RBrandon Young OverORI@MET7:11 PM2.52.6+124DK Over 2.5 +124 | exact4.0%✓✗✗––✓Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RReynaldo Lopez UnderBRA@CUB7:41 PM2.52.4-112DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact4.0%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RTarik Skubal UnderDOD@RED6:41 PM1.51.5-119BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price-✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RDean Kremer UnderYAN@TWI7:41 PM2.52.5-150BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | exact-✓✗!!–!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RTomoyuki Sugano UnderPAD@ROC8:41 PM3.53.5-102BetMGM Under 3.5 +100 | best price-✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
► Watch Signals
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropJonah Tong UnderORI@MET7:11 PM5.54.7-116BetOnline Under 5.5 -112 | best price15.5%✓✗✓✓––Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropDean Kremer OverYAN@TWI7:41 PM4.55.2-143BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price14.9%✓✗✓!–✓Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D
K PropReid Detmers OverMAR@ANG9:39 PM6.57.1-118BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 | best price9.8%✓✗✓✓––Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropQuinn Mathews OverGIA@CAR7:46 PM4.54.7-148BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price5.4%✓✗✓✓––Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropSandy Alcantara OverMAR@DIA9:41 PM3.53.6-127FanDuel Over 3.5 -122 | best price2.6%✓✗✓✓––Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsGavin Williams UnderSOX@GUA6:41 PM17.517.3-110FanDuel Under 17.5 -110 | best price1.2%✓✗!✓–✓Watch Signal

✓ Supports   ! Mixed   ✗ Opposes   – No Data  |  Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context