MLB Bets 2026-09-13

Current generated report

Odds data use · 15884 / 20000 requests used (4116 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	168W–124L–0P	58%	-11.59 u	Last 14 days • 292 settled
Grade A	15W–11L–0P	58%	-0.67 u
Grade B	153W–113L–0P	58%	-10.92 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3909W–2476L–8P	61%	-280.48 u	All-time • 6393 settled
Grade A	285W–225L–0P	56%	-13.06 u
Grade B	3622W–2242L–8P	62%	-260.98 u

102 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	K Prop	Chase Burns	3.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	K Prop	Freddy Peralta	4.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	K Prop	Jacob Lopez	4.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	K Prop	Tanner Bibee	3.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Andrew Painter	2.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Bubba Chandler	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Emmet Sheehan	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Freddy Peralta	1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Grayson Rodriguez	2.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Earned Run	Matthew Boyd	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Hits Allow	Eduardo Rodriguez	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hayden Wesneski	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Cameron	5.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Hits Allow	Trevor Rogers	6.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Outs	Cam Schlittler	17.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Christian Scott	1.5	-182	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Eduardo Rodriguez	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Gabriel Hughes	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Grant Holmes	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Grayson Rodriguez	1.5	-189	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-13	Pitcher Walks	Jake Irvin	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-12	K Prop	Luis Castillo	3.5	-167	-	LOSS	-1.000	Luis Castillo: 2.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-12	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-113	-	WIN	+0.885	Walbert Ureña: 7.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	660	55%	-28.98u	58	52%	-6.30u	309	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	556	58%	+7.57u	35	63%	+2.71u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	751	55%	-52.68u	103	47%	-22.45u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	505	63%	+4.94u	68	75%	+13.79u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	136	49%	-13.29u	5	80%	+2.41u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 660, 14d N 58	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 556, 14d N 35	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 136, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 853 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 822 pitcher(s), 3667 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 609 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1259 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 420 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins, Athletics, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins, Athletics, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 26 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 371 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 28 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 24 line(s)/13 game(s); Earned Runs 28 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 128, betmgm 8, bovada_direct 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 396 market side(s) checked \| 396 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 658 \| batter bats 727 \| batter hand splits 138 \| pitcher HR splits 50 \| batter pitch-type 609 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 208 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers	12:11 PM	+130	-157	1.5 (-162)	-1.5 (+134)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	+110	-133	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	1:36 PM	+102	-122	-1.5 (+162)	1.5 (-198)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	+153	-186	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	-155	+129	-1.5 (+112)	1.5 (-135)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	+118	-142	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+163	-199	1.5 (-127)	-1.5 (+106)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+109	-132	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+129)	1.5 (-156)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+123	-148	1.5 (-192)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 6.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	3:06 PM	+153	-187	1.5 (-148)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	4:06 PM	-148	+122	-1.5 (+109)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:11 PM	+120	-145	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	7:21 PM	-132	+110	-1.5 (+136)	1.5 (-165)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

4 Grade A | 18 Grade B | 84 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade…	K Prop	Freddy Peralta Over	AST@RAY	1:41 PM	4.5	5.9	-157	DK Over 4.5 -157 \| exact	31.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -163, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade…	K Prop	Tanner Bibee Over	GUA@TWI	2:11 PM	3.5	4.6	-163	FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 \| best price	31.1%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -131, active roster BVP K% 16.2% over 37 PA, active roster BVP damage OP…	K Prop	Jacob Lopez Over	MAR@ATH	4:06 PM	4.5	5.7	-131	Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 \| best price	27.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage	Pitcher Outs	Cam Schlittler Over	MET@YAN	1:36 PM	17.5	21.1	-158	DK Over 17.5 -158 \| exact	20.3%	✓✓✓––✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (4 play(s))

K Prop - Cam Schlittler Under

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 7.5 / avg 6.88

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Trevor Rogers Under

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.75

Pitcher Outs - Trevor Rogers Over

Projection: 18.1Displayed: Over 17.5 -189Market line: majority 18.5 | avg 18.19Recommended: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -180 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 18.19 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%Selected market: Over 61.2% / Under 38.8%

Selected line 17.5 is split from majority 18.5 / avg 18.19

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Jacob Lopez Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.9

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 (-157) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-161	+123	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
DK	4.5	-157	+123	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-164	+128	-
MyBookie	4.5	-162	+117	-
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 31.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Freddy Peralta: K/9 7.7, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 61 PA | K% 31.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .132 | OPS .497
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.0%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, active roster 21.8%/14 hitters, BVP 31.1%/61 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
A-tier gate: 67% consensus, but diff_pct 31.3% >= 21.3% and raw gap 1.41 >= 1.00

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Tanner Bibee Over 3.5 (-163) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.67 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-163	+128	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-170	+130	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-
BetMGM	4.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 31.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Tanner Bibee: K/9 6.9, proj 4.6K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 91 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .176 | OPS .466
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 91 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.9%, L7 23.4%, season 21.0%, active roster 20.6%/13 hitters, BVP 23.1%/91 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.43
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -163, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jacob Lopez Over 4.5 (-131) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-149	+115	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-131	+103	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	Recommended
MyBookie	4.5	-152	+109	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Jacob Lopez: K/9 8.6, proj 5.7K over 6.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 37 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .355 | OPS 1.110
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.9%, L7 21.6%, season 23.2%, active roster 22.8%/14 hitters, BVP 16.2%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 79%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.77 vs season
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 24.2% vs season 21.1%, proj adj +1.5%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -131, active roster BVP K% 16.2% over 37 PA, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.110/AVG 0.355 over 37 PA -- A risk note

A Best Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-158) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-160	+121	-
DK	17.5	-158	+119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+122	-
Fanatics	17.5	-180	+125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 21.057 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 20.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.83 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .130 | OPS .497
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.3%, L7 18.5%, season 22.4%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 7.1%, L7 10.5%, season 8.6%, BVP 7.7%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (18 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Chase Burns Over 3.5 (-124) diff 98.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-137	+106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-124	-103	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	-
MyBookie	3.5	-140	+101	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 98.6% vs 17% min; cushion +3.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.2% / under 47.8%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Chase Burns: K/9 11.4, proj 7.0K over 4.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 8.9 outs/3.0 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 49 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .204 | OPS .672
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.9%, L7 22.2%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.4%/14 hitters, BVP 26.5%/49 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 22.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 24/27 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.52
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 33.0% vs season 29.2%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 3.45K, diff 98.6%, books 80%)

⚠ ⚠ High K diff 99% (≥90%) — verify K projection

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hayden Wesneski Under 5.5 (-157) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.72 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.07, BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 16.5%, split 15.6%, L7 16.3%, season 18.4% (adj 0.84x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.12 | Season Avg 4.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-115) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.08, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-149) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+112	-149	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 6.5 (-158) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.75 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	5.5	-165	+115	-
DK	6.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.75 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 61 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 21.3%/61 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/27 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-158) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-182) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3781527970834007 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.5 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.19x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.6%, split 11.0%, L7 9.7%, season 9.6%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.19x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jake Irvin Over 1.5 (-165) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.277375949392761 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .318 | OPS .991
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 30.0%, L7 26.3%, season 25.3%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.7%, L7 7.6%, season 8.2%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grayson Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-189) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 61.2% / Under 38.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -189 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.168294832244119 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.2% / under 38.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 26.5%, season 21.9% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 11.4%, L7 8.5%, season 9.1% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-189); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Gabriel Hughes Over 1.5 (-140) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9058314789060844 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.5%, L7 28.2%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 10.5%, L7 11.7%, season 9.2% (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-166) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9057213223207745 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.0%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.9%/63 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grant Holmes Over 1.5 (-173) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8757332474661415 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 96 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .633
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.2%, L7 22.8%, season 22.1%, BVP 21.9%/96 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.3%, L7 4.9%, season 8.4%, BVP 11.5%/96 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-173) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (-135) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 86.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.54 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 4.56)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 72 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .277 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 25.2%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 20.8%/72 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Over 1.5 (-150) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.47 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.67, ERA 4.26)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.8% / under 44.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .222 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 21.0%, L7 18.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-157) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+120	-
DK	1.5	-157	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.10)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 61 PA | K% 31.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .132 | OPS .497
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 20.0%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 31.1%/61 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 (-161) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-185	+130	-
DK	1.5	-161	+121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.29 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.84, ERA 5.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.5%, L7 21.3%, season 21.8% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-161) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-123) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+100	-
DK	2.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.42 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.60, ERA 5.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 26.5%, season 21.9% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Under 2.5 (-164) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+123	-164	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 4.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (-123) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	-
DK	2.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 5.18)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 58 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.8%/58 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (84 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 25 play(s) (B 9 | C 16)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (-160) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 3.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-160	+125	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	3.5	-166	+130	-
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 28.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.99K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.1% / under 41.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.4, proj 4.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Sweeper (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .399
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, active roster 24.9%/14 hitters, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 25.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 29.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.79
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 28.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (+118) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	Recommended
DK	5.5	+118	-150	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-
MyBookie	5.5	+109	-152	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 11.3, proj 6.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.0% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.5%, L7 21.3%, season 21.8%, active roster 24.9%/14 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Miami Marlins 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.62
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 30.8% vs season 27.3%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 8.5 (+103) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 8.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 8.36 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 6 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 8.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	8.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	8.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	+110	-145	Recommended
DK	8.5	+103	-132	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	+108	-138	-
MyBookie	8.5	-102	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.0K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 17.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.4% / under 53.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.1, proj 10.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 33.2% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.259 | top pitch: Changeup (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 53 PA | K% 35.9% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .265 | OPS .831
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 22.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.6%, active roster 27.3%/14 hitters, BVP 35.9%/53 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 30.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 27.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.90 | Season Avg 8.41
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 8.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 (-126) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-127	-102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-
MyBookie	4.5	-133	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.76K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Trevor Rogers: K/9 8.9, proj 5.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 61 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .647
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, active roster 19.7%/13 hitters, BVP 21.3%/61 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 5; L7 team K% 17.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.7% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.79 vs season
K% trend: support +6.7 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 21.9%, proj adj +3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (-114) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	-
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-123	-104	-
DK	5.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	5.5	-127	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Matthew Boyd: K/9 6.8, proj 4.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 72 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .277 | OPS .672
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 25.2%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, active roster 22.4%/14 hitters, BVP 20.8%/72 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Pittsburgh Pirates 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 22.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 15.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 (-132) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-132	+104	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-122	-104	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	4.5	-133	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.7% / under 46.3%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 8.4, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 31.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 26.5%, season 21.9%, active roster 23.5%/14 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 26.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jake Irvin Over 4.5 (-130) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+101	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
MyBookie	4.5	-133	-103	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jake Irvin: K/9 8.8, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 37.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .318 | OPS .991
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.1%, split 30.0%, L7 26.3%, season 25.3%, active roster 26.8%/14 hitters, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 26.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 (-150) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 6.88 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 6.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+135	-190	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-135	+105	-
FanDuel	6.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	6.5	-145	+110	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	7.5	+117	-152	-
DK	7.5	+117	-150	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	7.5	+111	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 3.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 3/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.71
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.0, proj 7.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.9% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.265 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .130 | OPS .497
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.3%, L7 18.5%, season 22.4%, active roster 23.5%/14 hitters, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 18.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/30 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.30 | Season Avg 7.33
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Logan Webb Over 4.5 (-157) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-152	+116	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-
MyBookie	4.5	-153	+111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Logan Webb: K/9 8.2, proj 4.7K over 5.5 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 211 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, active roster 22.7%/13 hitters, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; San Diego Padres 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 50%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 16.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.88
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 3.5 (-109) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-109	-119	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	-109	-117	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-102	-125	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-105	-125	-
MyBookie	3.5	-113	-123	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 27.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.96K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Grant Holmes: K/9 6.8, proj 4.5K over 4.8 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.7% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 96 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .633
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 96 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.2%, L7 22.8%, season 22.1%, active roster 20.0%/14 hitters, BVP 21.9%/96 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.93
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 27.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 27.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 (-102) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-101	-128	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	-102	-124	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	Recommended
MyBookie	3.5	-105	-131	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 22.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.79K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.7% / under 52.3%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 7.8, proj 4.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 23.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 30% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.6%, L7 16.3%, season 18.4%, active roster 16.7%/14 hitters (adj 0.84x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 15.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 72%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 16.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/8 (88%) | L20 7/8 (88%) | Season 7/8 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/8 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 (-142) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-137	+106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-142	+111	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	Recommended
MyBookie	4.5	-140	+101	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 7.2, proj 5.4K over 5.9 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 63 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; L7 team K% 26.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 22.5% vs season 18.0%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Jobe Over 3.5 (-169) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 3.93 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-169	+132	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-170	+132	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
MyBookie	4.5	+112	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 17.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.61K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.3% / under 40.7%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Jackson Jobe: K/9 8.6, proj 4.1K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 19.5% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Curveball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 35.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .444 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.7%, L7 27.2%, season 22.9%, active roster 23.1%/13 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 36%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 27.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.1% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.33 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/6 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gabriel Hughes Over 3.5 (-139) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-147	+113	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-139	+109	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-
MyBookie	3.5	-143	+103	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Gabriel Hughes: K/9 7.4, proj 4.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.5%, L7 28.2%, season 22.9%, active roster 22.9%/14 hitters (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Detroit Tigers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 28.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Boyd Under 5.5 (-105) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.75K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 6.8, proj 4.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 72 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .277 | OPS .672
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 25.2%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, active roster 22.4%/14 hitters, BVP 20.8%/72 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Pittsburgh Pirates 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 22.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 15.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/19 (79%) | Season 15/19 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 5.5 (+128) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
FanDuel	4.5	-170	+132	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+109	-141	-
DK	5.5	+128	-164	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	+104	-144	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.0, proj 5.9K over 5.9 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.5%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Boston Red Sox 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 34%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 24.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cal Quantrill Under 3.5 (+116) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+115	-160	-
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-145	+111	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-148	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-
MyBookie	3.5	-147	+106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Cal Quantrill: K/9 7.1, proj 3.3K over 5.8 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.6% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 17.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 86 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .293 | OPS .923
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 86 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, split 16.2%, L7 18.4%, season 19.4%, active roster 19.9%/14 hitters, BVP 10.5%/86 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 18.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 20/30 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +2.03 vs season
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 23.5% vs season 18.5%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 101 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 (-135) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-147	+113	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-135	+106	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	-
MyBookie	4.5	-149	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.2% / under 45.8%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Nick Pivetta: K/9 9.9, proj 4.8K over 4.4 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.242 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Sweeper: 25.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 44 PA | K% 29.5% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .770
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.7%, L7 23.5%, season 21.4%, active roster 23.2%/14 hitters, BVP 29.5%/44 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.20
Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Payton Tolle Under 6.5 (-145) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	6.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-145	-
DK	6.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+110	-140	-
Fanatics	6.5	+105	-140	-
MyBookie	6.5	+100	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Payton Tolle: K/9 10.6, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 23.6% | xwOBA 0.255 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 17.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.90x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.7%, active roster 21.4%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.90 | Season Avg 6.62
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 100 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.90) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (+107) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+109	-141	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	Recommended
MyBookie	5.5	+104	-144	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Eury Perez: K/9 9.4, proj 5.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Slider (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .372
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.3%, L7 21.2%, season 20.6%, active roster 20.0%/13 hitters, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.0% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.8 ppts (recent 20.0% vs season 25.8%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Under 5.5 (+112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+145	-215	-
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-152	+116	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-142	+112	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-154	+120	Recommended
MyBookie	5.5	-153	+111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.4% / under 44.6%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Christian Scott: K/9 10.8, proj 5.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .833
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.3%, L7 19.3%, season 24.6%, active roster 25.0%/14 hitters, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/21 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 4.5 (+106) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+110	-140	Recommended
MyBookie	4.5	+102	-141	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Andrew Painter: K/9 8.1, proj 4.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Slider: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 58 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .714
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 58 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 21.6%, active roster 22.8%/13 hitters, BVP 13.8%/58 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 17.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 (+125) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +125

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+125	-159	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-
MyBookie	4.5	+107	-148	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.0% / under 58.0%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Bubba Chandler: K/9 8.6, proj 4.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .222 | OPS .571
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 21.0%, L7 18.2%, season 21.3%, active roster 22.6%/14 hitters, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.61
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 21.0%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Under 4.5 (-124) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -124

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	-103	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-
MyBookie	4.5	-106	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bryce Miller: K/9 9.0, proj 4.4K over 5.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 54 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .959
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.6%, L7 20.8%, season 22.4%, active roster 22.3%/14 hitters, BVP 20.4%/54 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 21%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 20.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Gasser Over 4.5 (-131) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-141	+109	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-131	+103	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-
MyBookie	4.5	-144	+104	-
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 9.2, proj 4.6K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 24.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 40 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.116
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.2%, L7 28.8%, season 25.5%, active roster 25.9%/14 hitters, BVP 20.0%/40 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 37%; L7 team K% 28.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-193) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -193

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.71 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 18 at 1 book | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
Caesars	17.5	-200	+148	-
DK	17.5	-193	+144	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-200	+148	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	Recommended
BetOnline	18	-120	-120	-
BetMGM	18.5	+160	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.842000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.6% / under 38.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.71 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 53 PA | K% 35.9% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .265 | OPS .831
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 22.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 35.9%/53 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 11.8%, L7 9.2%, season 9.8%, BVP 7.5%/53 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 17.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael McGreevy Under 17.5 (-121) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 -121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-110	-121	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.987999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .399
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 11.0%, L7 11.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.70 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Payton Tolle Over 17.5 (-136) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-136	+102	-
DK	17.5	-136	+103	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+102	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 18.712 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.7% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 6.9%, L7 10.8%, season 8.5% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Under 17.5 (+130) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +130

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.67 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-173	+129	-
DK	17.5	-173	+130	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-174	+130	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-
BetMGM	18.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.357 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.77 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.67 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 74)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 74
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.9%, L7 10.5%, season 9.3%, BVP 4.3%/211 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/26 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 17.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-115) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 16.5 -135 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 17.21 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 16.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 16.5 -135 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 17.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-135	-105	-
Fanatics	16.5	-135	-105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-110	-121	-
DK	17.5	-115	-115	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.476 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.05 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/6 OVER | avg line 17.21 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.7%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5% (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.40 | Season Avg 17.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.22 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cal Quantrill Under 17.5 (-136) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books | 16.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	16.5	-130	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	Recommended
Caesars	17.5	+113	-165	-
DK	17.5	+102	-136	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	+116	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.745 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.44 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 86 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .293 | OPS .923
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.2%, L7 18.4%, season 19.4%, BVP 10.5%/86 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.3%, L7 8.5%, season 8.8%, BVP 9.3%/86 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 16.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 23/30 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.70 | Season Avg 10.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +5.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Over 17.5 (-189) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -189

Selected market: Over 61.2% / Under 38.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 18.19 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 5 books | 17.5 at 2 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 18.5 +148; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-189	+141	Selected
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	18	-120	-120	-
BetMGM	18.5	+130	-185	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+145	-190	-
Caesars	18.5	+145	-200	-
FanDuel	18.5	+148	-200	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	18.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 18.105 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.99 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.2% / under 38.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 18.19 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 61 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 21.3%/61 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.7%, L7 7.2%, season 7.4%, BVP 11.5%/61 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 16.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matthew Boyd Under 17.5 (+123) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +123

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-200	+150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-179	+133	-
DK	17.5	-164	+123	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+132	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.055 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.31 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 72 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .277 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 25.2%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 20.8%/72 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.5%, L7 7.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.9%/72 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matt Boyd Under 17.5 (+125) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +125

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.055 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.31 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 58.3% / under 41.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 72 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .277 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 25.2%, L7 15.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 20.8%/72 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.5%, L7 7.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.9%/72 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 (-145) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 17.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-136	+102	-
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	-
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-105	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.509 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.41 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.0%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.9%/63 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cal Quantrill Under 5.5 (-121) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.69 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 0.95, BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.11x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 86 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .293 | OPS .923
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.2%, L7 18.4%, season 19.4%, BVP 10.5%/86 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 28/30 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 (-165) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.9 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
Fanatics	4.5	-165	+115	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 10.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.9 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 37 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .355 | OPS 1.110
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.9%, L7 21.6%, season 23.2%, BVP 16.2%/37 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gabriel Hughes Under 5.5 (-142) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.42, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.5%, L7 28.2%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Irvin Under 5.5 (-165) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.53, BB% 10.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .318 | OPS .991
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 30.0%, L7 26.3%, season 25.3%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Painter Under 5.5 (-133) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-130	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+100	-133	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 58 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.8%/58 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Under 5.5 (-131) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.93x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .399
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-144) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-144	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 91 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .176 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.9%, L7 23.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 23.1%/91 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/30 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (+107) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.42, BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 54 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .959
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 20.8%, season 22.4%, BVP 20.4%/54 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 4.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Over 5.5 (-110) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-148) Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+111	-148	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.11 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.54, BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 26.5%, season 21.9% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (+150) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8595087222019793 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 8.9 outs/3.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.5% / under 62.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.16x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 49 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .204 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.9%, L7 22.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 26.5%/49 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.2%, split 11.8%, L7 11.5%, season 10.6%, BVP 10.2%/49 PA (adj 1.16x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-143) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8359176118025933 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 61 PA | K% 31.1% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .132 | OPS .497
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 20.0%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 31.1%/61 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.0%, L7 5.7%, season 8.6%, BVP 11.5%/61 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (-108) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8157846599236014 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 16.5%, split 15.6%, L7 16.3%, season 18.4% (adj 0.84x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 8.7%, L7 8.7%, season 8.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/8 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bryce Miller Under 1.5 (-156) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3095185905025724 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 54 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .959
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 20.8%, season 22.4%, BVP 20.4%/54 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.6%, L7 6.1%, season 8.6%, BVP 5.6%/54 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Dylan Cease Over 2.5 (+125) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.732129627003592 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.7 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 53 PA | K% 35.9% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .265 | OPS .831
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 22.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 35.9%/53 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 11.8%, L7 9.2%, season 9.8%, BVP 7.5%/53 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trevor Rogers Under 1.5 (-153) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.362439569038548 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 61 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 21.3%/61 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.7%, L7 7.2%, season 7.4%, BVP 11.5%/61 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Over 1.5 (-148) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.625957068757795 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .399
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 11.0%, L7 11.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 5.6%/18 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Painter Over 1.5 (-135) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6214478129863996 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 58 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .250 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 21.6%, L7 17.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.8%/58 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 7.6%, L7 5.6%, season 7.7%, BVP 6.9%/58 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jackson Jobe Over 1.5 (-148) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5988123008119302 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .444 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.7%, L7 27.2%, season 22.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 7.9%, L7 6.4%, season 8.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/6 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tanner Bibee Over 1.5 (-111) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5968683618508053 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 91 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .176 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.9%, L7 23.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 23.1%/91 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 8.1%, L7 7.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.5%/91 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nick Pivetta Under 1.5 (-177) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4034194199112233 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.2 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.2% / under 59.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 44 PA | K% 29.5% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 23.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 29.5%/44 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.6%, L7 6.7%, season 7.4%, BVP 6.8%/44 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5609337835670778 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 40 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.116
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.2%, L7 28.8%, season 25.5%, BVP 20.0%/40 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 11.4%, L7 8.1%, season 9.4%, BVP 5.0%/40 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Under 1.5 (-135) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4496336931703449 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.9%, L7 10.5%, season 9.3%, BVP 4.3%/211 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Lopez Over 2.5 (+136) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.574613352275921 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.2 IP (BB% 10.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.6% / under 60.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 37 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .355 | OPS 1.110
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.9%, L7 21.6%, season 23.2%, BVP 16.2%/37 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 10.3%, L7 7.1%, season 9.0%, BVP 13.5%/37 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 8/24 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cal Quantrill Under 1.5 (+107) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4732038070797797 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.5 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 86 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .293 | OPS .923
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.2%, L7 18.4%, season 19.4%, BVP 10.5%/86 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.3%, L7 8.5%, season 8.8%, BVP 9.3%/86 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 24/30 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-128) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.461032691070487 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.8 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .372
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.3%, L7 21.2%, season 20.6%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 11.5%, L7 12.9%, season 10.0%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (+106) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.488983316422197 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .130 | OPS .497
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.3%, L7 18.5%, season 22.4%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 7.1%, L7 10.5%, season 8.6%, BVP 7.7%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/30 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Under 1.5 (+112) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4984948956682838 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.5 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.5%, L7 21.3%, season 21.8% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 10.0%, L7 9.6%, season 9.1% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 21 play(s) (C 21)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (-118) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.38 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.36, ERA 4.41)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 40 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .353 | OPS 1.116
Opponent K profile: composite 25.1%, split 24.2%, L7 28.8%, season 25.5%, BVP 20.0%/40 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-115) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.97 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.51, ERA 3.12)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.7% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-141) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.49, ERA 3.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 96 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .633
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.2%, L7 22.8%, season 22.1%, BVP 21.9%/96 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gabriel Hughes Under 2.5 (-110) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.32, ERA 5.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.5%, L7 28.2%, season 22.9% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Irvin Over 2.5 (+104) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.28 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.71, ERA 5.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 25 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .318 | OPS .991
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 30.0%, L7 26.3%, season 25.3%, BVP 12.0%/25 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Under 2.5 (-141) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.18, ERA 3.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 16.5%, split 15.6%, L7 16.3%, season 18.4% (adj 0.84x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.12 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (+105) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.61 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 4.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 91 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 5.5% | AVG .176 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.9%, L7 23.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 23.1%/91 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Under 2.5 (-125) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.68 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 3.16)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.4%, L7 24.3%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-142) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+107	-142	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 2.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 63 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .207 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.4%, L7 26.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.8%/63 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 (-103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-129	-103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.67 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 2.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 86 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .293 | OPS .923
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.2%, L7 18.4%, season 19.4%, BVP 10.5%/86 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 25/30 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (-101) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-110	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.20 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.83, ERA 1.71)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 26 PA | K% 26.9% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .130 | OPS .497
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.3%, L7 18.5%, season 22.4%, BVP 26.9%/26 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 22/30 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 (-122) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.38 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 44 PA | K% 29.5% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.7%, L7 23.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 29.5%/44 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/5 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Jobe Under 2.5 (-143) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 12:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.66 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.80)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .444 | OPS .889
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.7%, L7 27.2%, season 22.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/6 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Under 2.5 (-122) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-109	-122	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.86 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 4.11)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 61 PA | K% 21.3% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 21.3%/61 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-147) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+110	-147	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.43 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.18, ERA 4.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .372
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.3%, L7 21.2%, season 20.6%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (-110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-110	-120	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 4.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .399
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 25.1%, L7 29.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Under 2.5 (-129) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.88, ERA 5.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 54 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .959
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.6%, L7 20.8%, season 22.4%, BVP 20.4%/54 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Over 2.5 (-125) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.56 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 5.12, ERA 4.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 37 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 13.5% | AVG .355 | OPS 1.110
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.9%, L7 21.6%, season 23.2%, BVP 16.2%/37 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 8/24 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (+124) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.37 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.81, ERA 2.42)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 53 PA | K% 35.9% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .265 | OPS .831
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 22.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 35.9%/53 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Under 1.5 (-189) Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.01 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.41, ERA 2.99)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 8.9 outs/3.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.8% / under 61.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 49 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .204 | OPS .672
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.9%, L7 22.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 26.5%/49 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-153) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	-
DK	2.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.25 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 5.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 211 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .283 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.5%, L7 16.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.4%/211 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	72.5	74.4	78.0	6	Changeup (50% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	68.8	62.2	80.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 45% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	67.7	66.3	75.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	66.4	67.8	69.5	4	Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	65.7	52.1	86.5	6	Sweeper (39% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.242, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins	60.2	67.3	55.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	57.1	51.5	63.5	7	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	56.4	49.1	62.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	56.1	61.6	51.5	6	Slider (44% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	55.8	57.8	56.0	6	Sweeper (31% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	54.5	51.1	59.0	5	Sweeper (39% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	53.7	53.2	54.5	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	53.7	47.7	60.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	53.1	54.0	54.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	51.4	40.2	61.5	6	Curveball (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	49.2	45.2	53.0	6	Changeup (25% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	47.3	44.3	52.0	5	Changeup (28% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	47.3	47.4	47.5	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	47.2	49.0	44.0	7	Slider (36% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	46.9	43.2	50.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.0	38.6	55.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.0	52.1	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	44.2	44.8	42.0	5	Slider (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	43.9	41.8	47.5	5	Changeup (28% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	40.0	38.9	36.5	6	Curveball (27% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	39.9	45.9	32.0	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	38.9	46.5	27.5	4	Changeup (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	35.4	38.9	31.5	7	Sweeper (28% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	L	19.6%	5.8	6.0	5.9	97	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	L	22.2%	5.8	4.9	6.0	97	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	18.1%	4.6	5.0	4.9	77	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	24.3%	6.3	5.6	6.0	106	deep	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	L	29.3%	5.9	5.7	6.0	99	normal	full	80.00	20.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	18.2%	5.8	5.8	5.8	97	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	30.6%	4.7	5.5	5.3	79	short	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.9%	5.2	5.7	5.6	87	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	R	18.7%	4.6	4.9	4.9	77	short	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.3%	4.5	4.7	5.0	76	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	21.7%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	L	22.1%	6.2	5.7	5.8	104	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	R	20.7%	5.2	4.8	4.9	87	normal	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins	R	28.5%	4.5	4.8	4.8	76	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	23.8%	4.4	5.4	5.2	74	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	22.4%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	R	26.9%	4.7	4.7	4.7	79	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	R	31.3%	6.3	6.0	6.0	106	deep	full	75.00	25.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.0%	6.0	5.0	5.2	101	deep	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	22.4%	5.0	5.1	5.0	84	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	R	27.1%	4.2	4.2	4.8	70	short	full	86.50	13.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	R	20.7%	4.4	6.0	5.7	74	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	R	22.9%	4.3	5.4	5.2	72	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	R	16.9%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	R	20.4%	5.8	5.2	5.4	97	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	20.2%	6.4	5.3	5.5	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	R	33.9%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	78.00	22.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	R	21.4%	5.1	4.8	4.9	86	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	New York Mets @ New York Yankees	17.5	21.1	3.6	20.3%	A	BEST_PLAY	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	19.8	2.3	13.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min
Michael McGreevy	Michael McGreevy Under	Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.0	-1.5	8.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Payton Tolle	Payton Tolle Over	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	18.7	1.2	6.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Under	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.7	74	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	18.5	1.0	5.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cal Quantrill	Cal Quantrill Under	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.5	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Over	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matthew Boyd	Matthew Boyd Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.1	-0.5	2.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matt Boyd	Matt Boyd Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.1	-0.5	2.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Over	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	17.5	0.0	0.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.