MLB Full Audit
MLB Full Audit
Sunday, September 13 2026
MARKET TRUST TIERS
18 market(s) with settled tracker history| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 660 | 55% | -28.98u | 58 | 52% | -6.30u | 309 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 556 | 58% | +7.57u | 35 | 63% | +2.71u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 751 | 55% | -52.68u | 103 | 47% | -22.45u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 505 | 63% | +4.94u | 68 | 75% | +13.79u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 136 | 49% | -13.29u | 5 | 80% | +2.41u | 3 | 67% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA
What each market needs to move stages| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS
28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | 72.5 | 74.4 | 78.0 | 6 | Changeup (50% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | 68.8 | 62.2 | 80.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs New York Mets | 67.7 | 66.3 | 75.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 66.4 | 67.8 | 69.5 | 4 | Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Pivetta | San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 65.7 | 52.1 | 86.5 | 6 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.242, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins | 60.2 | 67.3 | 55.0 | 4 | Slider (38% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | 57.1 | 51.5 | 63.5 | 7 | Split-Finger (33% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | 56.4 | 49.1 | 62.5 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.1 | 61.6 | 51.5 | 6 | Slider (44% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs New York Yankees | 55.8 | 57.8 | 56.0 | 6 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hayden Wesneski | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | 54.5 | 51.1 | 59.0 | 5 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | 53.7 | 53.2 | 54.5 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | 53.7 | 47.7 | 60.5 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | 53.1 | 54.0 | 54.0 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers | 51.4 | 40.2 | 61.5 | 6 | Curveball (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | 49.2 | 45.2 | 53.0 | 6 | Changeup (25% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | 47.3 | 44.3 | 52.0 | 5 | Changeup (28% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 47.3 | 47.4 | 47.5 | 6 | Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | 47.2 | 49.0 | 44.0 | 7 | Slider (36% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 46.9 | 43.2 | 50.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.0 | 38.6 | 55.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 19.6%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | 46.0 | 52.1 | 41.0 | 6 | Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 44.2 | 44.8 | 42.0 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | 43.9 | 41.8 | 47.5 | 5 | Changeup (28% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies | 40.0 | 38.9 | 36.5 | 6 | Curveball (27% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels | 39.9 | 45.9 | 32.0 | 6 | Curveball (36% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals | 38.9 | 46.5 | 27.5 | 4 | Changeup (35% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox | 35.4 | 38.9 | 31.5 | 7 | Sweeper (28% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS
28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | L | 19.6% | 5.8 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 97 | normal | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | L | 22.2% | 5.8 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 18.1% | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 77 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 24.3% | 6.3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 106 | deep | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | L | 29.3% | 5.9 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 80.00 | 20.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 18.2% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 97 | normal | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 30.6% | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 79 | short | full | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | R | 17.9% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers | R | 18.7% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 77 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies | R | 21.3% | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Hayden Wesneski | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 21.7% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.4% |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | L | 22.1% | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 104 | deep | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals | R | 20.7% | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 87 | normal | full | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins | R | 28.5% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 23.8% | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 74 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 22.4% | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs New York Yankees | R | 26.9% | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 79 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs New York Mets | R | 31.3% | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 106 | deep | full | 75.00 | 25.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | R | 21.0% | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 101 | deep | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | R | 22.4% | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Nick Pivetta | San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | R | 27.1% | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 70 | short | full | 86.50 | 13.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | R | 20.7% | 4.4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 74 | short | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | R | 22.9% | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 72 | short | full | 63.50 | 36.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox | R | 16.9% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Freddy Peralta | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | R | 20.4% | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 97 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 20.2% | 6.4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 107 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 33.9% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 78.00 | 22.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 21.4% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE
11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | New York Mets @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 21.1 | 3.6 | 20.3% | A | BEST_PLAY | research | deep | 6.0 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 19.8 | 2.3 | 13.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min |
| Michael McGreevy | Michael McGreevy Under | Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | 8.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Payton Tolle | Payton Tolle Over | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 18.7 | 1.2 | 6.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Logan Webb | Logan Webb Under | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 16.4 | -1.1 | 6.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.7 | 74 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Noah Cameron | Noah Cameron Over | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 18.5 | 1.0 | 5.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cal Quantrill | Cal Quantrill Under | Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.5 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Trevor Rogers | Trevor Rogers Over | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 18.1 | 0.6 | 3.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Matthew Boyd | Matthew Boyd Under | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.5 | 2.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Matt Boyd | Matt Boyd Under | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.5 | 2.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | 0.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES
106 candidates evaluated| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade… | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Over | AST@RAY | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.9 | -157 | DK Over 4.5 -157 | exact | 31.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -163, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade… | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@TWI | 2:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.6 | -163 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | best price | 31.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -131, active roster BVP K% 16.2% over 37 PA, active roster BVP damage OP… | K Prop | Jacob Lopez Over | MAR@ATH | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -131 | Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 27.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 21.1 | -158 | DK Over 17.5 -158 | exact | 20.3% | ✓✓✓––✓ | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 3.5 | 7.0 | -124 | DK Over 3.5 -124 | exact | 98.6% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Hayden Wesneski Under | AST@RAY | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -157 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Cameron Under | ROY@SOX | 3:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -115 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | exact | 27.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -149 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@JAY | 1:38 PM | 6.5 | 5.5 | -158 | DK Under 6.5 -158 | exact | 15.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Christian Scott Over | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -182 | DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact | 58.5% | ✓✓!––✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Jake Irvin Over | ANG@NAT | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -165 | DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact | 51.8% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-189); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Grayson Rodriguez Over | ANG@NAT | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -189 | DK Over 1.5 -189 | exact | 44.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Gabriel Hughes Over | ROC@TIG | 12:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -140 | DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact | 27.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -166 | DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact | 27.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Grant Holmes Over | PHI@BRA | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -173 | DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact | 25.1% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Boyd Over | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 2.8 | -135 | Fanatics Over 1.5 -135 | best price | 86.7% | ✓✓!––✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -150 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 66.7% | ✓✓!––✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Freddy Peralta Over | AST@RAY | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -157 | DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Emmet Sheehan Over | DOD@MAR | 1:40 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -161 | DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Grayson Rodriguez Over | ANG@NAT | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -123 | DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Christian Scott Under | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -164 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Painter Over | PHI@BRA | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -123 | DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✓––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan Over | DOD@MAR | 1:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | +118 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120 | best price | 19.1% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | ORI@JAY | 1:38 PM | 8.5 | 10.0 | +103 | Bovada Direct Over 8.5 +110 | best price | 17.5% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 27.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | PHI@BRA | 1:36 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -109 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -102 | best price | 27.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Hayden Wesneski Over | AST@RAY | 1:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.3 | -102 | Fanatics Over 3.5 +105 | best price | 22.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | -142 | Fanatics Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 19.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jackson Jobe Over | ROC@TIG | 12:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | -169 | DK Over 3.5 -169 | exact | 17.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gabriel Hughes Over | ROC@TIG | 12:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -139 | DK Over 3.5 -139 | exact | 13.6% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matt Boyd Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -105 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -105 | exact | 13.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Cameron Over | ROY@SOX | 3:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +128 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue | 7.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cal Quantrill Under | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | +116 | DK Under 3.5 +116 | exact | 6.5% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Pivetta Over | PAD@GIA | 7:21 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -135 | DK Over 4.5 -135 | exact | 5.6% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Payton Tolle Under | ROY@SOX | 3:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -145 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -125 | best price | 5.4% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eury Perez Over | DOD@MAR | 1:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +107 | Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 4.4% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Christian Scott Under | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | +112 | FanDuel Under 5.5 +120 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Painter Over | PHI@BRA | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +106 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +110 | best price | 3.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +125 | DK Over 4.5 +125 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryce Miller Under | MAR@ATH | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -124 | DK Under 4.5 -124 | exact | 1.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robert Gasser Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -131 | DK Over 4.5 -131 | exact | 1.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | ORI@JAY | 1:38 PM | 17.5 | 19.8 | -193 | theScore Bet Over 17.5 -190 | best price | 13.4% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael McGreevy Under | SOX@CAR | 2:16 PM | 17.5 | 16.0 | -121 | DK Under 17.5 -121 | exact | 8.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Payton Tolle Over | ROY@SOX | 3:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.7 | -136 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -135 | best price | 6.9% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Webb Under | PAD@GIA | 7:21 PM | 17.5 | 16.4 | +130 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price | 6.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Noah Cameron Over | ROY@SOX | 3:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.5 | -115 | Fanatics Over 16.5 -135 | alt rescue | 5.6% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cal Quantrill Under | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | -136 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -130 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Trevor Rogers Over | ORI@JAY | 1:38 PM | 17.5 | 18.1 | -189 | theScore Bet Over 17.5 -180 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Matthew Boyd Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | +123 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +150 | best price | 2.5% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Matt Boyd Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | +125 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | exact | 2.5% | ✓✗✗––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.5 | -145 | Fanatics Over 17.5 -135 | best price | 0.1% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Cal Quantrill Under | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -121 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 23.6% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Hits All | Jacob Lopez Under | MAR@ATH | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -165 | DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gabriel Hughes Under | ROC@TIG | 12:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -142 | DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jake Irvin Under | ANG@NAT | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -165 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Andrew Painter Under | PHI@BRA | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -133 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael McGreevy Under | SOX@CAR | 2:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -131 | DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Bibee Under | GUA@TWI | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -144 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@ATH | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +107 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Logan Webb Over | PAD@GIA | 7:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -110 | theScore Bet Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Grayson Rodriguez Under | ANG@NAT | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -148 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Chase Burns Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +150 | DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Freddy Peralta Over | AST@RAY | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -143 | DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact | 22.4% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Hayden Wesneski Over | AST@RAY | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -108 | DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact | 21.1% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Walks | Bryce Miller Under | MAR@ATH | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -156 | DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact | 12.7% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Dylan Cease Over | ORI@JAY | 1:38 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +125 | DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact | 9.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@JAY | 1:38 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -153 | DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael McGreevy Over | SOX@CAR | 2:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -148 | DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact | 8.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Painter Over | PHI@BRA | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -135 | DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact | 8.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jackson Jobe Over | ROC@TIG | 12:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -148 | DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact | 6.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@TWI | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -111 | DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact | 6.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Nick Pivetta Under | PAD@GIA | 7:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -177 | DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact | 6.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Robert Gasser Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +112 | DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Logan Webb Under | PAD@GIA | 7:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -135 | DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact | 3.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jacob Lopez Over | MAR@ATH | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +136 | DK Over 2.5 +136 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cal Quantrill Under | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +107 | DK Under 1.5 +107 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Eury Perez Under | DOD@MAR | 1:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -128 | DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact | 1.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cam Schlittler Under | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +106 | DK Under 1.5 +106 | exact | 0.7% | ✓✗✗––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Emmet Sheehan Under | DOD@MAR | 1:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +112 | DK Under 1.5 +112 | exact | 0.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Gasser Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -118 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price | 53.3% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Payton Tolle Over | ROY@SOX | 3:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -115 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Grant Holmes Under | PHI@BRA | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -141 | DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gabriel Hughes Under | ROC@TIG | 12:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -110 | DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Irvin Over | ANG@NAT | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +104 | DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Hayden Wesneski Under | AST@RAY | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -141 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@TWI | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +105 | DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Cameron Under | ROY@SOX | 3:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -125 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -142 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cal Quantrill Under | RAN@DIA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -103 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cam Schlittler Under | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -101 | DK Under 1.5 -101 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Pivetta Over | PAD@GIA | 7:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -122 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jackson Jobe Under | ROC@TIG | 12:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@JAY | 1:38 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -122 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Under | DOD@MAR | 1:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -147 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael McGreevy Over | SOX@CAR | 2:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -110 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Miller Under | MAR@ATH | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -129 | DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob Lopez Over | MAR@ATH | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -125 | DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dylan Cease Under | ORI@JAY | 1:38 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +124 | DK Under 1.5 +124 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Chase Burns Under | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -189 | BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Webb Under | PAD@GIA | 7:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael McGreevy Over | SOX@CAR | 2:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -160 | Fanatics Over 3.5 -160 | best price | 28.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor Rogers Over | ORI@JAY | 1:38 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -126 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price | 16.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -114 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 | best price | 13.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grayson Rodriguez Over | ANG@NAT | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -132 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Irvin Over | ANG@NAT | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -130 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 10.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Under | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 7.5 | 7.2 | -150 | DK Under 7.5 -150 | exact | 3.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Webb Over | PAD@GIA | 7:21 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -157 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price | 3.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context