MLB Bets 2026-09-12

Current generated report

Odds data use · 11832 / 20000 requests used (8168 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	164W–121L–0P	58%	-11.17 u	Last 14 days • 285 settled
Grade A	16W–10L–0P	62%	+0.80 u
Grade B	148W–111L–0P	57%	-11.97 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3896W–2466L–8P	61%	-278.85 u	All-time • 6370 settled
Grade A	284W–224L–0P	56%	-12.95 u
Grade B	3610W–2233L–8P	62%	-259.46 u

103 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Cesar Perdomo	3.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	6.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Luis Castillo	3.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Ranger Suarez	5.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-113	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	K Prop	Zach Thornton	3.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Cesar Perdomo	2.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Clay Holmes	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	2.5	-176	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	2.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Ranger Suarez	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Walbert Urena	2.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Bryan Woo	5.5	-112	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Alvarez	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Brady Singer	2.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Clay Holmes	1.5	-190	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Bradish	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-193	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Peter Lambert	1.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Randy Dobnak	1.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Tanner Gordon	0.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Glasnow	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-12	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Phillips	1.5	-182	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-11	K Prop	Cade Cavalli	6.5	-132	-	WIN	+0.758	Cade Cavalli: 9.0 (line 6.5)
2026-09-11	K Prop	Andrew Abbott	3.5	-165	-	LOSS	-1.000	Andrew Abbott: 0.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	655	55%	-27.50u	55	55%	-3.30u	307	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	555	58%	+6.68u	39	59%	+0.08u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	745	55%	-51.49u	105	48%	-20.89u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	494	63%	+4.79u	64	75%	+12.73u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	136	49%	-13.29u	6	67%	+1.41u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 26 total candidate(s); season N 655, 14d N 55	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 555, 14d N 39	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 136, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 852 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 819 pitcher(s), 3659 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 608 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1245 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 420 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics, Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Minnesota Twins, Athletics, Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 26 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 370 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 26 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 24 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 24 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 19 line(s)/12 game(s); Earned Runs 24 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 110, fanatics 5, fanduel 1, mybookieag 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 354 market side(s) checked \| 354 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 655 \| batter bats 726 \| batter hand splits 139 \| pitcher HR splits 50 \| batter pitch-type 608 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 188 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers	1:10 PM	+144	-175	1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	+153	-186	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+104	-126	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+156)	1.5 (-190)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+163)	1.5 (-199)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	-160	+132	-1.5 (+109)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	+161	-196	1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	4:11 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+153)	1.5 (-186)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	-197	+161	-1.5 (-106)	1.5 (-114)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	+123	-149	1.5 (-174)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:11 PM	+159	-193	1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-101	-119	-1.5 (+155)	1.5 (-189)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:16 PM	-104	-116	-1.5 (+159)	1.5 (-193)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	8:11 PM	+119	-143	1.5 (-176)	-1.5 (+145)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-174	+144	-1.5 (-110)	1.5 (-110)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 22 Grade B | 60 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch	K Prop	Walbert Urena Over	ANG@NAT	4:06 PM	4.5	6.2	-113	FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 \| best price	36.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -167, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Luis Castillo Over	SOX@CAR	7:16 PM	3.5	4.7	-167	Fanatics Over 3.5 -160 \| best price	33.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (4 play(s))

K Prop - Brandon Pfaadt Over

Projection: 5.2Displayed: Over 4.5 +107Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 3.75Recommended: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.75 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.75

Pitcher Earned Runs - Ian Seymour Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Outs - Michael King Under

Projection: 17.5Displayed: Under 18.5 -161Market line: majority 17.5 | avg 17.75Recommended: DK Under 18.5 -161 | exactOwn-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Selected line 18.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 17.75

Pitcher Earned Runs - Michael King Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Walbert Urena Over 4.5 (-113) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 4.5 -113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-116	-111	-
DK	4.5	-113	-113	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 36.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.66K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Walbert Urena: K/9 8.4, proj 6.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.7%, L7 27.8%, season 21.9%, active roster 23.6%/14 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 27.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.77
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Luis Castillo Over 3.5 (-167) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -167

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-172	+131	-
DK	3.5	-167	+131	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	3.5	-173	+124	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 33.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.1% / under 40.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Luis Castillo: K/9 7.7, proj 4.7K over 4.7 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 25.8%, L7 28.3%, season 24.0%, active roster 24.9%/14 hitters (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.9% (14 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.19
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -167, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (22 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Cesar Perdomo Over 3.5 (-147) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-143	+110	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 46.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.61K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cesar Perdomo: K/9 7.9, proj 5.1K over 5.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 30.9% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.275 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.7%, L7 18.4%, season 21.7%, active roster 23.2%/13 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; San Diego Padres 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 50%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/2 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 105 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -147, expected IP 5.2 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.61K, diff 46.1%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 (-149) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 6.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 6.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 44.9% vs 17% min; cushion +2.92K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: mybookieag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%)
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 11.5, proj 9.4K over 6.4 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.1% | put-away% 24.6% | xwOBA 0.262 | top pitch: Sweeper (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, L7 23.0%, season 22.1%, active roster 20.1%/14 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.1% (14 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.50 | Season Avg 7.62
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 33.6% vs season 30.4%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149 -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 3.5 (-159) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -159

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	3.5	-167	+128	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-159	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-164	+128	-
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 41.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.0% / under 42.0%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, L7 17.7%, season 22.4%, active roster 23.7%/14 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.7% (14 hitters)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -159, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-141) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+110	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-
MyBookie	5.5	+121	-168	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 21.8% vs 17% min; cushion -1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ranger Suarez: K/9 7.1, proj 4.3K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.7%, L7 17.5%, season 20.7%, active roster 21.0%/14 hitters, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.88
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season
K% trend: headwind -10.7 ppts (recent 11.8% vs season 22.5%, proj adj -5.3%)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-112) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-118	-112	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.74 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 0.96, BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 94 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .157 | OPS .438
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.9%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 11 play(s) (B 11)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tanner Gordon Over 0.5 (-187) diff 88.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -187

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -187 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.940557853859268 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.18 over 4.8 IP (BB% 4.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.079
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.5%, L7 29.3%, season 23.0%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.5%, L7 10.2%, season 9.2%, BVP 4.8%/21 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Michael King Over 1.5 (-193) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -193 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6050979627008437 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.7 IP (BB% 9.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.6% / under 38.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 29 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 24.1% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.154
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.7%, L7 23.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 8.6%, L7 8.7%, season 7.4%, BVP 24.1%/29 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-193) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Andrew Alvarez Over 1.5 (-156) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.254241135613998 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.6 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Alvarez: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 24.2%, L7 28.1%, season 25.3% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 13.4%, L7 5.9%, season 8.1% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kyle Bradish Over 1.5 (-151) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.12543633690415 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.0 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 100 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .341 | OPS .943
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 18.3%, L7 15.0%, season 19.2%, BVP 10.0%/100 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 6.5%, L7 6.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 11.0%/100 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kumar Rocker Over 1.5 (-195) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 61.9% / Under 38.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1011925615480616 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.9% / under 38.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 19.1% | AVG .176 | OPS .510
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 16.2%, L7 19.6%, season 19.3%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 10.3%, L7 10.3%, season 8.8%, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-195); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Clay Holmes Over 1.5 (-190) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.3% / Under 38.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0870023919461325 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.3% / under 38.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .172 | OPS .560
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.6%, L7 16.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.5%, L7 7.3%, season 9.1%, BVP 9.4%/32 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/15 (73%) | Season 11/15 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-190); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-182) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0824467372837487 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.3 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.16x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .276 | OPS .654
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.3%, L7 21.4%, season 20.6%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.1%, split 11.5%, L7 12.6%, season 10.0%, BVP 9.4%/32 PA (adj 1.16x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/34 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-182) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Peter Lambert Over 1.5 (-187) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0152937655638614 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.1 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 34 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .156 | OPS .362
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.7%, L7 16.9%, season 18.4%, BVP 23.5%/34 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.7%, L7 7.4%, season 8.4%, BVP 5.9%/34 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 (-139) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0131754590238513 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 18.5%, L7 20.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 9.9%, L7 8.7%, season 9.1%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Randy Dobnak Over 1.5 (-146) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8965131565600724 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.333
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.2%, L7 26.2%, season 21.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 7.5%, L7 9.9%, season 8.5% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brady Singer Under 2.5 (-144) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9513379801434592 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 21.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 197 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .251 | OPS .755
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.1%, L7 23.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 22.3%/197 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 11.6%, L7 11.0%, season 10.6%, BVP 9.6%/197 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Over 1.5 (-148) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-148	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.56 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.72, ERA 3.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.7%, L7 17.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Under 2.5 (-158) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+119	-158	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.36, ERA 3.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 144 PA | K% 35.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .238 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 21.0%, L7 18.1%, season 21.3%, BVP 35.4%/144 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cesar Perdomo Under 2.5 (-163) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.37 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.11, ERA 2.83)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.7%, L7 18.4%, season 21.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/2 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-163) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Clay Holmes Under 2.5 (-162) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.37 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.70, ERA 2.83)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .172 | OPS .560
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.6%, L7 16.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/15 (80%) | Season 12/15 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Walbert Urena Under 2.5 (-153) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.39 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.11, ERA 2.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.7%, L7 27.8%, season 21.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Under 2.5 (-176) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -176 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	1.5	-180	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.54, ERA 4.69)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 18.9%, L7 23.2%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 31/43 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-176); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (60 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 20 play(s) (B 7 | C 13)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 3.5 (+100) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 3.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-102	-127	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	-
FanDuel	3.5	+100	-128	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	3.5	-106	-130	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 34.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Leahy: K/9 9.6, proj 4.7K over 4.2 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 9.5 outs/3.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .958
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 25.0%, L7 28.3%, season 24.0%, active roster 24.9%/14 hitters (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 25.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 28.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.59
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
K% trend: support +8.7 ppts (recent 30.9% vs season 22.2%, proj adj +4.4%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 3.5 (-134) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-133	+103	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	3.5	-136	-101	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 21.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kumar Rocker: K/9 8.8, proj 4.3K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 26.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 19.1% | AVG .176 | OPS .510
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 16.2%, L7 19.6%, season 19.3%, active roster 20.4%/14 hitters, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 (+107) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.75 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+124	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
FanDuel	3.5	-166	+130	-
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	-
MyBookie	3.5	-163	+117	-
DK	4.5	+107	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.69K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.86
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 6.2, proj 5.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.5% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .739
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, active roster 23.0%/14 hitters, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 24.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 36%; L7 team K% 25.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/26 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.96
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 (-122) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-122	-104	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-
MyBookie	4.5	-124	-111	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Mahle: K/9 8.3, proj 5.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Split-Finger (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 138 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .246 | OPS .632
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 138 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.3%, L7 23.0%, season 22.1%, active roster 20.1%/14 hitters, BVP 20.3%/138 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.17
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 5.5 (-144) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-141	+109	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	-144	+113	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+105	-
MyBookie	5.5	-144	+104	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.7% / under 44.3%); own-line consensus 7/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ian Seymour: K/9 11.3, proj 6.1K over 5.0 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 28.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 18.9%, L7 23.2%, season 21.7%, active roster 21.6%/14 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/43 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 3.26
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +3.24 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kyle Bradish Over 3.5 (-150) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-147	+114	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-150	+118	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	-
Fanatics	3.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	3.5	-150	+108	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 7/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Bradish: K/9 7.9, proj 3.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 25.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 100 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .341 | OPS .943
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 100 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.2%, split 18.3%, L7 15.0%, season 19.2%, active roster 19.6%/13 hitters, BVP 10.0%/100 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 15.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.6% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.3 ppts (recent 16.2% vs season 21.5%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 (-111) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 -111; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-111	-114	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	Recommended
MyBookie	5.5	-120	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.7% / under 50.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gerrit Cole: K/9 8.7, proj 5.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 163 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .218 | OPS .762
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 163 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.4%, L7 17.7%, season 22.4%, active roster 23.7%/14 hitters, BVP 22.7%/163 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 17.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.95
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Randy Dobnak Over 3.5 (+104) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+104	-132	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	-
MyBookie	3.5	+100	-138	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 27.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.96K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.3% / under 53.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Randy Dobnak: K/9 7.1, proj 4.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 13.7% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.333
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.2%, L7 26.2%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.5%/14 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Boston Red Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 34%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 26.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.58
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
K% trend: support +4.9 ppts (recent 20.9% vs season 16.0%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 27.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 27.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Over 5.5 (-108) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-102	-127	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-108	-119	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-
MyBookie	5.5	-106	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.97K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.9% / under 51.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.3, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 94 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .157 | OPS .438
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 94 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.5%, active roster 22.1%/14 hitters, BVP 30.9%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 22%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.85
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 28.2% vs season 25.0%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (-132) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-125	-103	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-132	+104	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-
MyBookie	3.5	-128	-107	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.7% / under 46.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Phillips: K/9 8.1, proj 4.1K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .276 | OPS .654
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.3%, L7 21.4%, season 20.6%, active roster 20.0%/13 hitters, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.0% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/34 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
K% trend: support +6.7 ppts (recent 25.6% vs season 18.9%, proj adj +3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Clay Holmes Under 4.5 (-153) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -153

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-
MyBookie	4.5	+111	-154	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Clay Holmes: K/9 6.5, proj 3.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Cutter (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Cutter: 22.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .172 | OPS .560
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.6%, L7 16.5%, season 24.1%, active roster 24.4%/14 hitters, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Pittsburgh Pirates 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 24.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 16.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 5.5 (-105) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-105	-122	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-120	-
MyBookie	5.5	-106	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 3/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Paul Skenes: K/9 9.3, proj 6.0K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.5% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 144 PA | K% 35.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .238 | OPS .668
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 144 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.0%, L7 18.1%, season 21.3%, active roster 22.7%/14 hitters, BVP 35.4%/144 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 6.24
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
K% trend: headwind -10.7 ppts (recent 17.6% vs season 28.3%, proj adj -5.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (8 books) | split consensus 43% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Connor Prielipp Over 4.5 (+127) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 4.5 +127; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+122	-159	-
DK	4.5	+127	-163	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	4.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.5% / under 58.5%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Connor Prielipp: K/9 9.8, proj 4.8K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Curveball: 24.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .241 | OPS .782
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.2%, L7 18.5%, season 21.2%, active roster 19.3%/14 hitters, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 70%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 18.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/21 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.52
Prop trend: K L10: 10/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 103 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Gordon Over 3.5 (-146) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-139	+107	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-146	+114	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	3.5	-145	+110	-
MyBookie	3.5	-141	+102	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 7/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tanner Gordon: K/9 7.0, proj 3.7K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 19.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.92x)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.079
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.5%, L7 29.3%, season 23.0%, active roster 23.1%/14 hitters, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Detroit Tigers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 29.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.62
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Over 4.5 (-129) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael King: K/9 7.4, proj 4.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 24.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 29 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 24.1% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.154
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.7%, L7 23.8%, season 21.4%, active roster 23.1%/14 hitters, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.97
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 (+107) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	7.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+120	-160	-
DK	7.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	7.5	+115	-150	-
MyBookie	7.5	+109	-152	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 5.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Glasnow: K/9 10.8, proj 7.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.5% | put-away% 25.2% | xwOBA 0.253 | top pitch: Curveball (51% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 33.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .733
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 18.5%, L7 20.9%, season 21.8%, active roster 25.0%/14 hitters, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Miami Marlins 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Over 5.5 (+121) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+121	-155	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	5.5	+112	-156	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gage Jump: K/9 9.4, proj 5.8K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 35 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .364 | OPS .737
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.0%, L7 22.2%, season 23.3%, active roster 23.4%/14 hitters, BVP 28.6%/35 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 80%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.58
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 4.5 (+110) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 4.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+110	-141	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	4.5	+112	-156	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Peter Lambert: K/9 9.1, proj 4.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 25.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 34 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .156 | OPS .362
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.4%, split 15.7%, L7 16.9%, season 18.4%, active roster 16.7%/14 hitters, BVP 23.5%/34 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 15.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 16.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.48
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 5.5 (+117) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+115	-149	-
DK	5.5	+117	-150	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-158	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 8.9, proj 5.7K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Slider: 37.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Alvarez: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.2%, L7 28.1%, season 25.3%, active roster 26.7%/14 hitters (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 25.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 28.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 4/22 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.14
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Over 4.5 (+106) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	4.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brady Singer: K/9 7.2, proj 4.6K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Sweeper (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 197 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .251 | OPS .755
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 197 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 24.1%, L7 23.4%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.5%/14 hitters, BVP 22.3%/197 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.29
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 18 play(s) (B 1 | C 17)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Connor Prielipp Under 2.5 (-169) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.50 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.83, ERA 5.80)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .241 | OPS .782
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.2%, L7 18.5%, season 21.2%, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Over 1.5 (-155) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.73 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.79, ERA 3.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Alvarez: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.5%, split 24.2%, L7 28.1%, season 25.3% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 (-136) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.01 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.30, ERA 3.68)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 18.5%, L7 20.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Under 2.5 (-148) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+111	-148	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 3.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .276 | OPS .654
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.3%, L7 21.4%, season 20.6%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 28/34 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Over 2.5 (-135) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.20 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.46, ERA 5.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 197 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .251 | OPS .755
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.1%, L7 23.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 22.3%/197 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 (-170) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.59 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 3.17)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 138 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .246 | OPS .632
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.3%, L7 23.0%, season 22.1%, BVP 20.3%/138 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Under 2.5 (-131) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.45 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 3.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 94 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .157 | OPS .438
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.9%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Over 1.5 (+115) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 3.36)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 9.5 outs/3.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .958
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 25.0%, L7 28.3%, season 24.0% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Under 2.5 (-159) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.50 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.72, ERA 3.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 163 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .218 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.4%, L7 17.7%, season 22.4%, BVP 22.7%/163 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Dobnak Under 2.5 (-118) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 3.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.333
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.2%, L7 26.2%, season 21.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/12 (75%) | Season 9/12 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-117) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-113	-117	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, L7 17.7%, season 22.4% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Over 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.40 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.51, ERA 4.69)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 34 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .156 | OPS .362
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.7%, L7 16.9%, season 18.4%, BVP 23.5%/34 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 7/25 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 2.5 (-138) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 3.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .739
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 7/26 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (-105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 5.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 35 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .364 | OPS .737
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.0%, L7 22.2%, season 23.3%, BVP 28.6%/35 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Gordon Under 2.5 (+106) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-141	+106	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.69 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 5.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.079
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.5%, L7 29.3%, season 23.0%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Bradish Under 2.5 (-135) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.36)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 100 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .341 | OPS .943
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 18.3%, L7 15.0%, season 19.2%, BVP 10.0%/100 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Under 2.5 (-167) Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.75 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 2.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 29 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 24.1% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.154
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.7%, L7 23.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-141) Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+106	-141	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 19.1% | AVG .176 | OPS .510
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 16.2%, L7 19.6%, season 19.3%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Over 17.5 (-157) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-148	+111	-
DK	17.5	-157	+118	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+102	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.272 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.72 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 163 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .218 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.4%, L7 17.7%, season 22.4%, BVP 22.7%/163 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 7.1%, L7 11.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.8%/163 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 17.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.77 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.77 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Walbert Urena Under 17.5 (-125) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	17.5	-107	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-106	-125	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-106	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.080000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.11 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 97
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.7%, L7 27.8%, season 21.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 11.4%, L7 7.8%, season 9.1% (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 15.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 17.5 (-143) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-145	+109	-
DK	17.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+112	-
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.618 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .739
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.8%, L7 9.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.1%/48 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 13.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +5.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Ranger Suarez Under 17.5 (-102) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 -102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-132	-102	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-131	-102	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	Recommended
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.503 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.72 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.7%, L7 17.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 6.9%, L7 11.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 10.5%/38 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.40 | Season Avg 15.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 18.5 (-161) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 +104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-139	+104	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+100	-
DK	18.5	+120	-161	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.518 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 5.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.38 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.4% / under 57.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 29 PA | K% 10.3% | BB% 24.1% | AVG .364 | OPS 1.154
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.7%, L7 23.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 8.6%, L7 8.7%, season 7.4%, BVP 24.1%/29 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 20.0%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 24/29 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tyler Glasnow Under 17.5 (+108) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-150	+112	-
DK	17.5	-143	+108	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 16.667 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 18 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 18.5%, L7 20.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 38.9%/18 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 9.9%, L7 8.7%, season 9.1%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/10 (30%) | Season 3/10 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Over 17.5 (-176) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -176

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-179	+132	-
DK	17.5	-176	+132	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.188 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.62 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 94 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .157 | OPS .438
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.7%, L7 22.6%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.9%/94 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.6%, L7 6.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 5.3%/94 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Bradish Over 5.5 (-102) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.14 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.59, BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.12x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 100 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .341 | OPS .943
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 18.3%, L7 15.0%, season 19.2%, BVP 10.0%/100 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Randy Dobnak Under 5.5 (-137) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-137	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.333
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.2%, L7 26.2%, season 21.5% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 (+101) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-135	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.12, BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.6% / under 46.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .739
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-159) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-159	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, L7 17.7%, season 22.4% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Over 5.5 (-111) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-111	-119	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.20 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.54, BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 197 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .251 | OPS .755
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.1%, L7 23.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 22.3%/197 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Gordon Under 6.5 (-157) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.9 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.20 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.38, BB% 4.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.079
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.5%, L7 29.3%, season 23.0%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Peter Lambert Under 5.5 (-127) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.38, BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 34 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .156 | OPS .362
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.7%, L7 16.9%, season 18.4%, BVP 23.5%/34 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Zach Thornton Over 1.5 (-101) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0717861340489807 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, L7 17.7%, season 22.4% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, L7 11.3%, season 8.6% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Connor Prielipp Over 1.5 (+116) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.819396331301557 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 33 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .241 | OPS .782
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.2%, L7 18.5%, season 21.2%, BVP 24.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.2%, L7 6.9%, season 9.4%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gerrit Cole Under 1.5 (-127) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.1991350017167222 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.21 over 5.7 IP (BB% 4.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 163 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .218 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.4%, L7 17.7%, season 22.4%, BVP 22.7%/163 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 7.1%, L7 11.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.8%/163 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Walbert Urena Over 2.5 (+134) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8950654838129903 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.51 over 5.3 IP (BB% 11.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 21.7%, L7 27.8%, season 21.9% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 11.4%, L7 7.8%, season 9.1% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-170) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7143455194316348 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 144 PA | K% 35.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .238 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 21.0%, L7 18.1%, season 21.3%, BVP 35.4%/144 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 11.2%, L7 10.8%, season 10.6%, BVP 10.4%/144 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ian Seymour Under 1.5 (-185) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3081870581351949 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 4.7 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 18.9%, L7 23.2%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.8%, L7 4.6%, season 8.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 34/43 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ranger Suarez Over 1.5 (+138) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6433517205412582 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.7%, L7 17.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 6.9%, L7 11.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 10.5%/38 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 (+101) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4178865803977372 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .739
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 24.6%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.8%, L7 9.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.1%/48 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Daniel Espino	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	89.6	97.9	90.0	3	4-Seam Fastball (47% whiff, 62% usage)	Savant whiff 40.4%, put-away 33.4%, xwOBA 0.235, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins	70.3	69.8	81.0	4	Curveball (51% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.253, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	62.7	60.0	67.5	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cesar Perdomo	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	60.3	65.0	70.0	3	4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 46% usage)	Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	59.5	61.9	60.0	7	Changeup (39% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	59.3	56.6	64.5	4	Sweeper (36% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	58.5	52.1	67.5	4	Changeup (54% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	55.7	53.0	59.5	7	Changeup (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Spencer Miles	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	55.7	40.2	74.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	55.2	52.1	61.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	53.5	49.9	59.5	6	Slider (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	51.6	52.0	51.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	51.4	46.0	58.5	6	Curveball (38% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Newcomb	Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals	51.0	48.9	55.0	6	Slurve (29% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	50.9	51.6	51.5	5	Split-Finger (27% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	49.4	42.1	57.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	49.4	54.0	44.5	6	Slider (28% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	48.8	53.3	47.0	5	Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	48.8	54.6	43.0	6	Slider (42% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	48.6	48.3	48.5	4	Curveball (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	48.2	53.2	43.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	47.6	50.4	47.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	46.8	45.2	46.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 43% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	46.2	42.6	52.0	6	Cutter (39% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	42.2	47.6	39.0	6	Changeup (32% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	41.6	47.6	33.5	5	Sweeper (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	41.0	39.1	42.0	7	Sweeper (25% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	39.2	37.9	40.0	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	R	16.8%	6.1	6.0	6.0	102	deep	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	L	23.2%	4.7	5.1	5.0	79	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	22.5%	5.9	5.4	5.5	99	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	19.6%	4.9	5.4	5.3	82	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	L	18.7%	5.4	5.2	5.3	91	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	17.8%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Newcomb	Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	19.3%	2.1	2.1	3.9	35	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.1 IP/start
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	17.3%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Daniel Espino	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	30.4%	1.2	-	4.8	20	short	full	90.00	10.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	R	17.9%	5.1	5.0	5.1	86	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	L	19.4%	3.8	5.7	5.3	64	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.4%	4.9	5.6	5.5	82	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	R	18.6%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	R	22.8%	5.8	5.4	5.5	97	normal	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins	R	30.3%	4.8	5.8	5.6	80	short	full	81.00	19.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	21.3%	4.3	4.6	4.6	72	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	L	25.0%	5.0	5.2	5.2	84	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	L	20.2%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	R	23.6%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	24.5%	4.9	5.3	5.3	82	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	R	20.3%	6.2	5.8	5.9	104	deep	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cesar Perdomo	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	L	22.7%	5.0	6.0	5.7	84	short	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	R	26.1%	5.8	5.8	6.0	97	normal	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	R	25.2%	3.8	4.9	4.7	64	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	L	29.3%	5.1	4.7	4.8	86	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.4%	4.6	4.9	4.8	77	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Spencer Miles	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	R	25.8%	1.4	2.8	3.5	24	short	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	L	23.4%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Over	New York Mets @ New York Yankees	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.77 <= 3 min
Walbert Urena	Walbert Urena Under	Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	17.5	16.1	-1.4	8.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Pfaadt	Brandon Pfaadt Over	Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Ranger Suarez	Ranger Suarez Under	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Under	San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	17.5	-1.0	5.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.9	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Tyler Glasnow	Tyler Glasnow Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.6	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Over	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	17.5	18.2	0.7	3.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.