MLB Full Audit
MLB Full Audit
Saturday, September 12 2026
MARKET TRUST TIERS
18 market(s) with settled tracker history| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 655 | 55% | -27.50u | 55 | 55% | -3.30u | 307 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 555 | 58% | +6.68u | 39 | 59% | +0.08u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 745 | 55% | -51.49u | 105 | 48% | -20.89u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 494 | 63% | +4.79u | 64 | 75% | +12.73u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 136 | 49% | -13.29u | 6 | 67% | +1.41u | 3 | 67% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA
What each market needs to move stages| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS
28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Espino | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 89.6 | 97.9 | 90.0 | 3 | 4-Seam Fastball (47% whiff, 62% usage) | Savant whiff 40.4%, put-away 33.4%, xwOBA 0.235, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins | 70.3 | 69.8 | 81.0 | 4 | Curveball (51% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.253, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | 62.7 | 60.0 | 67.5 | 7 | Changeup (37% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cesar Perdomo | San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | 60.3 | 65.0 | 70.0 | 3 | 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 46% usage) | Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | 59.5 | 61.9 | 60.0 | 7 | Changeup (39% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals | 59.3 | 56.6 | 64.5 | 4 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Sears | Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies | 58.5 | 52.1 | 67.5 | 4 | Changeup (54% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | 55.7 | 53.0 | 59.5 | 7 | Changeup (34% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Spencer Miles | Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | 55.7 | 40.2 | 74.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | 55.2 | 52.1 | 61.5 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs New York Mets | 53.5 | 49.9 | 59.5 | 6 | Slider (29% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | 51.6 | 52.0 | 51.0 | 5 | Curveball (39% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | 51.4 | 46.0 | 58.5 | 6 | Curveball (38% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Newcomb | Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals | 51.0 | 48.9 | 55.0 | 6 | Slurve (29% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | 50.9 | 51.6 | 51.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (27% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | 49.4 | 42.1 | 57.5 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | 49.4 | 54.0 | 44.5 | 6 | Slider (28% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels | 48.8 | 53.3 | 47.0 | 5 | Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 48.8 | 54.6 | 43.0 | 6 | Slider (42% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | 48.6 | 48.3 | 48.5 | 4 | Curveball (36% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 48.2 | 53.2 | 43.0 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 47.6 | 50.4 | 47.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers | 46.8 | 45.2 | 46.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 43% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 46.2 | 42.6 | 52.0 | 6 | Cutter (39% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox | 42.2 | 47.6 | 39.0 | 6 | Changeup (32% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 41.6 | 47.6 | 33.5 | 5 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs New York Yankees | 41.0 | 39.1 | 42.0 | 7 | Sweeper (25% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | 39.2 | 37.9 | 40.0 | 5 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS
28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers | R | 16.8% | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | L | 23.2% | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Tyler Mahle | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 22.5% | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 99 | normal | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 19.6% | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | L | 18.7% | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 17.8% | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 96 | normal | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Newcomb | Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 19.3% | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 35 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.1 IP/start |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 17.3% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 33.50 | 66.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Daniel Espino | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | R | 30.4% | 1.2 | - | 4.8 | 20 | short | full | 90.00 | 10.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers | R | 17.9% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Andrew Sears | Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies | L | 19.4% | 3.8 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 64 | short | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.8 IP/start |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 22.4% | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 82 | short | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4% |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | R | 18.6% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals | R | 22.8% | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 97 | normal | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins | R | 30.3% | 4.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 80 | short | full | 81.00 | 19.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 21.3% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 72 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 25.0% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs New York Yankees | L | 20.2% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs New York Mets | R | 23.6% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | R | 24.5% | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | R | 20.3% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 104 | deep | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cesar Perdomo | San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | L | 22.7% | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 84 | short | full | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | R | 26.1% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox | R | 25.2% | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 64 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.8 IP/start |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | L | 29.3% | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 86 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 21.4% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 77 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3% |
| Spencer Miles | Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 25.8% | 1.4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 24 | short | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 23.4% | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 82 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE
7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | Gerrit Cole Over | New York Mets @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 10.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.77 <= 3 min |
| Walbert Urena | Walbert Urena Under | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | 8.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Brandon Pfaadt Over | Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Under | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.3 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael King | Michael King Under | San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | 18.5 | 17.5 | -1.0 | 5.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.9 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Tyler Glasnow Under | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.6 | 80 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Over | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 3.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES
84 candidates evaluated| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ Featured | ⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@NAT | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 6.2 | -113 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price | 36.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -167, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Luis Castillo Over | SOX@CAR | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.7 | -167 | Fanatics Over 3.5 -160 | best price | 33.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 105 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Cesar Perdomo Over | PAD@GIA | 4:06 PM | 3.5 | 5.1 | -147 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | best price | 46.1% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149 | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@BRA | 7:16 PM | 6.5 | 9.4 | -149 | MyBookie Over 6.5 -149 | exact | 44.9% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -159, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Zach Thornton Over | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 3.5 | 5.0 | -159 | DK Over 3.5 -159 | exact | 41.5% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Under | ROY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -141 | DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Hits All | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -112 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Gordon Over | ROC@TIG | 1:10 PM | 0.5 | 0.9 | -187 | DK Over 0.5 -187 | exact | 88.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Walks | Michael King Over | PAD@GIA | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -193 | DK Over 1.5 -193 | exact | 73.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Alvarez Over | ANG@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -156 | DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact | 50.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Bradish Over | ORI@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -151 | DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact | 41.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-195); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Kumar Rocker Over | RAN@DIA | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -195 | DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact | 40.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-190); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Clay Holmes Over | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -190 | DK Over 1.5 -190 | exact | 39.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Phillips Over | DOD@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -182 | DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact | 38.8% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Peter Lambert Over | AST@RAY | 6:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -187 | DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact | 34.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Glasnow Over | DOD@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -139 | DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact | 34.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Randy Dobnak Over | ROY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -146 | DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact | 26.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Brady Singer Under | RED@BRE | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 21.9% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Ranger Suarez Over | ROY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -148 | DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Paul Skenes Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -158 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cesar Perdomo Under | PAD@GIA | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -163 | DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Clay Holmes Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -162 | DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Walbert Urena Under | ANG@NAT | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-176); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Ian Seymour Under | AST@RAY | 6:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -176 | DK Under 2.5 -176 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Kyle Leahy Over | SOX@CAR | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.7 | +100 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +100 | exact | 34.3% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 27.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Randy Dobnak Over | ROY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | +104 | BetMGM Over 3.5 +120 | best price | 27.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryan Woo Over | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -108 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 17.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | DOD@MAR | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | -132 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price | 16.0% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Clay Holmes Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | -153 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price | 14.5% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Over | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -105 | BetOnline Over 5.5 -102 | best price | 8.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Connor Prielipp Over | GUA@TWI | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | +127 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | alt rescue | 6.7% | ✓✗✗!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Gordon Over | ROC@TIG | 1:10 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | -146 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price | 6.4% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael King Over | PAD@GIA | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -129 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 5.9% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Glasnow Over | DOD@MAR | 4:11 PM | 7.5 | 7.9 | +107 | FanDuel Over 7.5 +122 | best price | 5.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gage Jump Over | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +121 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +122 | best price | 5.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Peter Lambert Over | AST@RAY | 6:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +110 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue | 5.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Alvarez Over | ANG@NAT | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +117 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 | best price | 3.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brady Singer Over | RED@BRE | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +106 | DK Over 4.5 +106 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.77 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gerrit Cole Over | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 19.3 | -157 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price | 10.1% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Walbert Urena Under | ANG@NAT | 4:06 PM | 17.5 | 16.1 | -125 | Caesars Under 17.5 -124 | best price | 8.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Pfaadt Over | RAN@DIA | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -143 | DK Over 17.5 -143 | exact | 6.4% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ranger Suarez Under | ROY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | -102 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael King Under | PAD@GIA | 4:06 PM | 18.5 | 17.5 | -161 | DK Under 18.5 -161 | exact | 5.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tyler Glasnow Under | DOD@MAR | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | +108 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price | 4.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Over | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -176 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -175 | best price | 3.9% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Bradish Over | ORI@JAY | 3:08 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | -102 | DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Randy Dobnak Under | ROY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -137 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brandon Pfaadt Under | RAN@DIA | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | +101 | DK Under 5.5 +101 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zach Thornton Under | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -159 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brady Singer Over | RED@BRE | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -111 | Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Gordon Under | ROC@TIG | 1:10 PM | 6.5 | 5.9 | -157 | DK Under 6.5 -157 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Peter Lambert Under | AST@RAY | 6:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -127 | DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Zach Thornton Over | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -101 | DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact | 38.1% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Connor Prielipp Over | GUA@TWI | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +116 | DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact | 21.3% | ✓!✗!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Gerrit Cole Under | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -127 | DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact | 20.1% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@NAT | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | +134 | DK Over 2.5 +134 | exact | 15.8% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Paul Skenes Over | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -170 | DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact | 14.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Ian Seymour Under | AST@RAY | 6:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -185 | DK Under 1.5 -185 | exact | 12.8% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Ranger Suarez Over | ROY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +138 | DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact | 9.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Pfaadt Under | RAN@DIA | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | +101 | DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Alvarez Over | ANG@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Glasnow Over | DOD@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -136 | DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Phillips Under | DOD@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -148 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Brady Singer Over | RED@BRE | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -135 | DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Mahle Under | PHI@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -170 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -131 | DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Leahy Over | SOX@CAR | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +115 | Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Gerrit Cole Under | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -159 | DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Randy Dobnak Under | ROY@SOX | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -118 | DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Zach Thornton Under | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -117 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -115 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Over | AST@RAY | 6:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -128 | DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Pfaadt Over | RAN@DIA | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -138 | DK Over 2.5 -138 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gage Jump Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -105 | Fanatics Under 2.5 +105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Gordon Under | ROC@TIG | 1:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +106 | Fanatics Under 2.5 +110 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Bradish Under | ORI@JAY | 3:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -135 | DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael King Under | PAD@GIA | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -167 | DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kumar Rocker Under | RAN@DIA | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -141 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kumar Rocker Over | RAN@DIA | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.3 | -134 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -128 | best price | 21.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Pfaadt Over | RAN@DIA | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | +107 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue | 15.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Over | PHI@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -122 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 12.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ian Seymour Over | AST@RAY | 6:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -144 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -130 | best price | 11.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Bradish Over | ORI@JAY | 3:08 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | -150 | Fanatics Over 3.5 -145 | best price | 4.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gerrit Cole Over | MET@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -111 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -111 | best price | 2.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Connor Prielipp Under | GUA@TWI | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -169 | DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!✓–✓ | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context