MLB Bets 2026-09-11

Current generated report

Odds data use · 9304 / 20000 requests used (10696 remaining)

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	148W–111L–0P	57%	-11.99 u	Last 14 days • 259 settled
Grade A	15W–9L–0P	62%	+1.04 u
Grade B	133W–102L–0P	57%	-13.03 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3880W–2456L–8P	61%	-279.67 u	All-time • 6344 settled
Grade A	283W–223L–0P	56%	-12.70 u
Grade B	3595W–2224L–8P	62%	-260.53 u

105 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	K Prop	Andrew Abbott	3.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	K Prop	Cade Cavalli	6.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	K Prop	Mason Adams	3.5	-169	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	K Prop	Max Scherzer	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	K Prop	Seth Lugo	4.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Anthony Molina	2.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Carlos Rodon	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Dustin May	1.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Jeffrey Springs	3.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	2.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Parker Messick	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Robbie Ray	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Gusto	2.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Seth Lugo	2.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	2.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Wilber Dotel	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Anthony Molina	5.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Chris Bassitt	5.5	-109	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	George Kirby	5.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Seth Lugo	5.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Outs	Chris Bassitt	17.5	-116	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-232	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Walks	Framber Valdez	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Walks	Jeffrey Springs	2.5	-184	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-11	Pitcher Walks	Taj Bradley	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-10	K Prop	Cristian Javier	3.5	-172	-	WIN	+0.581	Cristian Javier: 5.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-10	K Prop	Jared Jones	5.5	-143	-	WIN	+0.699	Jared Jones: 8.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	650	55%	-27.52u	52	56%	-1.97u	305	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	551	58%	+5.35u	37	59%	+0.18u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	733	55%	-47.64u	100	48%	-19.14u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	490	62%	+2.34u	64	72%	+9.38u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	135	48%	-14.15u	6	50%	-0.45u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 25 total candidate(s); season N 650, 14d N 52	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 551, 14d N 37	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 27 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 27/27 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 852 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 819 pitcher(s), 3656 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 604 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 27 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 27 SP matchup(s), 1920 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 420 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 26 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 368 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 14/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 26 line(s)/14 game(s); Outs 26 line(s)/14 game(s); Hits Allowed 25 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 16 line(s)/9 game(s); Earned Runs 26 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 111, betmgm 7, espnbet 1 \| missing: Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 358 market side(s) checked \| 358 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 654 \| batter bats 721 \| batter hand splits 139 \| pitcher HR splits 51 \| batter pitch-type 604 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 191 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+164	-200	1.5 (-126)	-1.5 (+105)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+154	-187	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+118	-142	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+105	-126	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+164	-200	1.5 (-127)	-1.5 (+105)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	+144	-175	1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	-209	+171	-1.5 (-118)	1.5 (-102)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+157	-191	1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:46 PM	+155	-188	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	8:11 PM	-124	+103	-1.5 (+141)	1.5 (-171)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals	8:16 PM	-115	-104	-1.5 (+148)	1.5 (-179)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	9:40 PM	-164	+136	-1.5 (-105)	1.5 (-114)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+160)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-157	+130	-1.5 (+112)	1.5 (-135)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 24 Grade B | 61 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -132	K Prop	Cade Cavalli Over	ANG@NAT	6:46 PM	6.5	9.3	-132	Fanatics Over 6.5 -125 \| best price	43.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade…	K Prop	Andrew Abbott Over	RED@BRE	7:46 PM	3.5	4.6	-165	FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 \| best price	32.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (4 play(s))

K Prop - Anthony Kay Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.5

K Prop - Jeffrey Springs Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 4

Pitcher Earned Runs - Shota Imanaga Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Framber Valdez Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 6.5 (-132) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 6.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 6.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-132	+102	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-135	+105	-
DK	6.5	-132	+103	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-132	+104	-
Fanatics	6.5	-125	-105	Recommended
MyBookie	6.5	-135	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 43.3% vs 17% min; cushion +2.81K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Cade Cavalli: K/9 11.4, proj 9.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.6% | put-away% 22.0% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 28.2%, split 30.0%, L7 28.9%, season 25.3%, active roster 27.0%/14 hitters (adj 1.13x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 28.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 27.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 6.17
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.33 vs season
K% trend: support +11.7 ppts (recent 39.6% vs season 27.9%, proj adj +5.8%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 86%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -132 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Andrew Abbott Over 3.5 (-165) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+123	-
BetRivers	3.5	-167	+125	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-165	+129	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	Recommended
MyBookie	3.5	-162	+117	-
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 32.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.5, proj 4.6K over 5.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 144 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .248 | OPS .752
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 144 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.5%/14 hitters, BVP 25.0%/144 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 71%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (24 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Mason Adams Over 3.5 (-169) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-154	+119	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-169	+132	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+122	-
MyBookie	3.5	-156	+113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 54.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.90K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.3% / under 40.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Mason Adams: K/9 9.9, proj 5.4K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.369 | top pitch: Curveball (58% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 22.4%, L7 29.8%, season 23.0%, active roster 23.4%/14 hitters (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Detroit Tigers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 29.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.67 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -169, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.90K, diff 54.2%, books 83%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (-156) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+139	-182	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+135	-180	-
DK	4.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	-
MyBookie	4.5	+130	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 27.7% vs 17% min; cushion -1.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.4, proj 3.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.2% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.344 | top pitch: Cutter (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Cutter: 21.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 75 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .269 | OPS .711
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 75 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.2%, L7 26.1%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.9%/14 hitters, BVP 18.7%/75 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Boston Red Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 34%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 26.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 4.10
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Max Scherzer Under 5.5 (-148) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+116	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-
MyBookie	5.5	+121	-168	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 21.9% vs 17% min; cushion -1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Max Scherzer: K/9 7.2, proj 4.3K over 4.9 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.9% | put-away% 13.5% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .225 | OPS .717
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 22.8%, L7 29.1%, season 24.5%, active roster 26.5%/14 hitters, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 29.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/14 (93%) | Season 13/14 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.43
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Chris Bassitt Under 17.5 (-116) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-120	-115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-114	-117	-
DK	17.5	-114	-116	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-104	-130	-
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 14.117 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 19.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.70 vs lg 4.20); projected 4.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 92 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .272 | OPS .815
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 18.3%, L7 15.1%, season 19.2%, BVP 13.0%/92 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 6.5%, L7 8.5%, season 7.4%, BVP 7.6%/92 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 15.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Anthony Molina Under 5.5 (-152) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.79 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Molina: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .188 | OPS .438
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.5%, L7 19.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/6 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — George Kirby Over 5.5 (-158) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 6.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-158	+119	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	6.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 7.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 29.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.26 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.50, BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 78 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .316 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.9%, L7 23.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 14.1%/78 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 (-109) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.22 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.59, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 92 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .272 | OPS .815
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 18.3%, L7 15.1%, season 19.2%, BVP 13.0%/92 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Over 5.5 (-128) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 6.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.27 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.59, BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 75 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .269 | OPS .711
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.2%, L7 26.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.7%/75 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Taj Bradley Over 1.5 (-149) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.241750964746818 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 5.4 IP (BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 84 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .218 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 15.7%, L7 19.0%, season 21.2%, BVP 28.6%/84 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 9.3%, L7 5.8%, season 9.3%, BVP 7.1%/84 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 23/28 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Framber Valdez Over 1.5 (-123) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.092854247161789 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .150 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.7%, L7 29.4%, season 23.0%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 8.2%, L7 7.1%, season 8.3%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 (-232) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -232

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -232 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.047357238109934 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.19 over 5.5 IP (BB% 4.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 34.5% / under 65.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 83 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .850
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.7%, BVP 12.0%/83 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 10.1%, L7 5.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 4.8%/83 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-232); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jeffrey Springs Under 2.5 (-184) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -184 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9497872884217415 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 22.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.4% / under 60.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 124 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .155 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 27.6%, season 23.4%, BVP 25.8%/124 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.1%, L7 8.7%, season 9.0%, BVP 6.5%/124 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-184); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (B 12)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Wilber Dotel Over 0.5 (-160) diff 180.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.68 over 3.1 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 3.45)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.1 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 2.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 5.8 outs/1.9 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Wilber Dotel: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 21.1%, L7 20.9%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Over 1.5 (-152) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-152	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.66 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.90, ERA 3.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .214 | OPS .812
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.0%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Dustin May Over 1.5 (-124) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-110	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.49 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 5.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 53 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 1.9% | AVG .260 | OPS .702
Opponent K profile: composite 26.1%, split 24.6%, L7 28.4%, season 25.5%, BVP 28.3%/53 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Molina Under 2.5 (-156) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+117	-156	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 3.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Molina: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .188 | OPS .438
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.5%, L7 19.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/6 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-135) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-135	+102	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.91 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.23, ERA 3.06)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 83 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .850
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.7%, BVP 12.0%/83 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 (-162) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+122	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.73 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 2.88)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 149 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 10.1% | AVG .229 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.4%, L7 16.2%, season 22.4%, BVP 19.5%/149 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-162) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Under 2.5 (-127) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.09 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 2.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.4%, L7 24.0%, season 24.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-142) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+115	-
DK	2.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.47 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.52, ERA 6.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 75 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .269 | OPS .711
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.2%, L7 26.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.7%/75 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-149) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.12 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.60, ERA 2.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 105 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .242 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 22.1%, L7 16.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 20.0%/105 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Gusto Under 2.5 (-168) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+126	-168	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.29 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 3.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .742
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.3%, L7 22.1%, season 20.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-168) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Under 3.5 (-154) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.45 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.90, ERA 5.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 124 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .155 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 27.6%, season 23.4%, BVP 25.8%/124 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-172) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-172	+129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.77 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.32, ERA 2.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 51 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .260 | OPS .654
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 20.9%, BVP 29.4%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-172) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (61 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 20 play(s) (B 6 | C 14)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Parker Messick Over 5.5 (+107) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/8 UNDER | avg line 5.39 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 8 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
BetRivers	5.5	+100	-132	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	Recommended
DK	5.5	+107	-137	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	-
MyBookie	5.5	+102	-141	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 31.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/8 OVER (8 books); IN LINE delta +0.12
Parker Messick: K/9 10.0, proj 7.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 51 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .260 | OPS .654
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 20.9%, active roster 22.0%/14 hitters, BVP 29.4%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 46%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.18
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 30.6% vs season 26.1%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (9 books) | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.8% (9 books) | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (-108) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	-103	-125	-
BetRivers	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-108	-118	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-
MyBookie	5.5	-107	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 23.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Aaron Nola: K/9 9.6, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 447 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .288 | OPS .881
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 447 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.8%, L7 20.6%, season 21.7%, active roster 23.1%/14 hitters, BVP 23.9%/447 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.59
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
K% trend: support +3.3 ppts (recent 27.7% vs season 24.4%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chris Sale Over 7.5 (+102) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 7.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/8 UNDER | avg line 7.39 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 8 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 7.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	7.5	-103	-125	-
BetRivers	7.5	-109	-122	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-105	-125	-
DK	7.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-102	-125	-
Fanatics	7.5	+110	-145	Recommended
MyBookie	7.5	-107	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.0K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 20.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/8 OVER (8 books); IN LINE delta +0.12
Chris Sale: K/9 11.1, proj 9.0K over 6.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.3% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 172 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .225 | OPS .621
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 172 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 20.3%, L7 24.3%, season 22.2%, active roster 20.0%/14 hitters, BVP 30.2%/172 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 24.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.36
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (9 books) | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (9 books) | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Framber Valdez Over 4.5 (-155) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-159	+122	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
DK	4.5	-155	+121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	-
MyBookie	4.5	-160	+116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Framber Valdez: K/9 6.1, proj 5.1K over 5.8 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Curveball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 35.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .150 | OPS .492
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 24.7%, L7 29.4%, season 23.0%, active roster 23.4%/13 hitters, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Colorado Rockies 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 46%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 29.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.25
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 (-108) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-114	-114	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	-
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-115	-
MyBookie	5.5	-117	-117	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 4/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 8.8, proj 5.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 28.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 83 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .850
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 83 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.7%, active roster 21.7%/14 hitters, BVP 12.0%/83 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.78
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 4.5 (-123) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-122	-106	-
BetRivers	4.5	-150	+112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-123	-104	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%); own-line consensus 6/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.4, proj 4.7K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Curveball: 22.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .214 | OPS .812
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.0%, L7 23.6%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.9%/14 hitters, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.54
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Molina Over 3.5 (-111) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/8 UNDER | avg line 3.39 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 8 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-108	-120	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	-113	-118	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-111	-114	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	-
MyBookie	3.5	-111	-124	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.7% / under 50.3%); own-line consensus 1/8 OVER (8 books); IN LINE delta +0.12
Anthony Molina: K/9 8.1, proj 4.1K over 4.3 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 15.6% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Curveball (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Molina: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .188 | OPS .438
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 20.5%, L7 19.8%, season 21.7%, active roster 23.2%/14 hitters, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; San Diego Padres 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: K L10: 2/6 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (9 books) | books against us 12% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 (+111) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
DK	6.5	+111	-142	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+106	-136	-
Fanatics	6.5	+105	-140	-
MyBookie	6.5	+102	-141	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 12.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.83K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Shota Imanaga: K/9 9.4, proj 7.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.4% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Split-Finger: 47.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 74 PA | K% 33.8% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .100 | OPS .263
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 25.5%, L7 17.3%, season 24.1%, active roster 23.8%/14 hitters, BVP 33.8%/74 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Pittsburgh Pirates 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 24.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 7/28 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 over 6.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Taj Bradley Over 5.5 (+111) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	5.5	+107	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-
MyBookie	5.5	+112	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.9, proj 6.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.2% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Split-Finger: 20.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 84 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .218 | OPS .607
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 84 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 15.7%, L7 19.0%, season 21.2%, active roster 19.3%/14 hitters, BVP 28.6%/84 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 70%; high-contact hitters 5; L7 team K% 19.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.57
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.0 ppts (recent 30.3% vs season 27.3%, proj adj +1.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Kirby Under 4.5 (+107) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 7/8 OVER | avg line 4.39 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 8 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	-
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-132	+102	-
BetRivers	4.5	-139	+105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-136	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	4.5	-133	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.4% / under 45.6%); own-line consensus 7/8 OVER (8 books); IN LINE delta +0.12
George Kirby: K/9 7.5, proj 4.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Sweeper (26% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 78 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .316 | OPS .781
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.9%, L7 23.3%, season 22.5%, active roster 22.1%/14 hitters, BVP 14.1%/78 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 22%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.93
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 (-139) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	-167	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-
MyBookie	5.5	+105	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Carlos Rodon: K/9 9.6, proj 5.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.4% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 27.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 149 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 10.1% | AVG .229 | OPS .695
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 149 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.4%, L7 16.2%, season 22.4%, active roster 23.7%/14 hitters, BVP 19.5%/149 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 16.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Gusto Under 3.5 (-118) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	-108	-118	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	-
MyBookie	3.5	-120	-115	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Gusto: K/9 7.8, proj 3.2K over 4.3 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Cutter (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Cutter: 19.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .308 | OPS .742
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.3%, L7 22.1%, season 20.6%, active roster 20.4%/14 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.10
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Kay Under 4.5 (-160) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/8 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 3.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	-
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+121	-
BetRivers	3.5	-175	+128	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	3.5	-160	+124	-
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-
MyBookie	3.5	-159	+114	-
DK	4.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 7/8 OVER (8 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.12
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.7, proj 4.2K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 10 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .100 | OPS .300
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 17.8%, L7 19.6%, season 20.6%, active roster 21.9%/14 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Under 6.5 (-146) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/8 UNDER | avg line 6.39 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 8 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	+103	-133	-
BetRivers	6.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	+114	-146	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	-
Fanatics	6.5	+105	-140	-
MyBookie	6.5	-101	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/8 OVER (8 books); IN LINE delta +0.12
Nolan McLean: K/9 8.8, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 22.8% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.4%, L7 24.0%, season 24.6%, active roster 25.2%/14 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.39
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
K% trend: headwind -8.0 ppts (recent 18.7% vs season 26.7%, proj adj -4.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yusei Kikuchi Over 5.5 (-119) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	-115	-112	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-119	-108	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-
MyBookie	5.5	-119	-116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.1% / under 48.9%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Yusei Kikuchi: K/9 8.5, proj 5.7K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Split-Finger: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 8 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .375 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 27.4%, L7 27.2%, season 21.8%, active roster 24.1%/14 hitters (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Washington Nationals 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 27.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-146) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 5.5 -146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+114	-146	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-
MyBookie	5.5	+114	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Sonny Gray: K/9 8.2, proj 5.3K over 5.9 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 105 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .242 | OPS .669
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 105 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 22.1%, L7 16.7%, season 20.7%, active roster 21.0%/14 hitters, BVP 20.0%/105 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dustin May Under 5.5 (+109) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/8 OVER | avg line 5.39 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 8 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+150	-220	-
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+101	-
BetRivers	5.5	-141	+106	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-139	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-105	-
MyBookie	5.5	-133	-103	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 7/8 OVER (8 books); IN LINE delta +0.12
Dustin May: K/9 8.6, proj 5.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Sweeper (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 53 PA | K% 28.3% | BB% 1.9% | AVG .260 | OPS .702
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.1%, split 24.6%, L7 28.4%, season 25.5%, active roster 25.9%/14 hitters, BVP 28.3%/53 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; L7 team K% 28.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chris Bassitt Under 3.5 (-126) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	3.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-104	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	3.5	+109	-152	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Chris Bassitt: K/9 7.0, proj 3.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.343 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 25.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 92 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .272 | OPS .815
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 92 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 18.3%, L7 15.1%, season 19.2%, active roster 19.7%/14 hitters, BVP 13.0%/92 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 57%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 15.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.59
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 18.9% vs season 15.7%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 (+128) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -154 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 4 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -154 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+139	-182	-
BetRivers	4.5	+125	-167	-
DK	4.5	+128	-164	Selected
MyBookie	4.5	+130	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 3/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.57
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 7.0, proj 4.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 27.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 124 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .155 | OPS .451
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 124 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 22.3%, L7 27.6%, season 23.4%, active roster 23.8%/14 hitters, BVP 25.8%/124 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 80%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 27.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 10/26 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (8 books) | split consensus 43% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 (-103) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	-101	-128	-
BetRivers	5.5	-103	-130	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-103	-123	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	Recommended
MyBookie	5.5	-105	-131	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Matthew Liberatore: K/9 10.4, proj 5.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 25.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.078
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.1%, active roster 25.0%/14 hitters, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 24.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; L7 team K% 30.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.14
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
K% trend: support +7.8 ppts (recent 31.5% vs season 23.7%, proj adj +3.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 18.5 (+112) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	18.5	+113	-150	-
DK	18.5	+112	-149	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+116	-158	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 21.333 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 15.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 172 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .225 | OPS .621
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 20.3%, L7 24.3%, season 22.2%, BVP 30.2%/172 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 9.2%, L7 5.8%, season 8.4%, BVP 3.5%/172 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/25 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.83 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.83 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-139) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-148	+110	-
DK	17.5	-139	+105	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.575999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.32 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 51 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .260 | OPS .654
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 20.9%, BVP 29.4%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.7%, split 6.7%, L7 7.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.0%/51 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 (-110) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-132	-102	-
DK	17.5	-121	-110	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-107	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 15.543000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.89 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 77)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 77
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 74 PA | K% 33.8% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .100 | OPS .263
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.5%, L7 17.3%, season 24.1%, BVP 33.8%/74 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.4%, L7 8.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 5.4%/74 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 16.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-179) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -179

Selected market: Over 60.0% / Under 40.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	-
Caesars	17.5	-176	+131	-
DK	17.5	-179	+134	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.409 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.0% / under 40.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 105 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .242 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 22.1%, L7 16.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 20.0%/105 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.5%, L7 9.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.8%/105 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cade Cavalli Over 17.5 (-139) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-139	+105	-
DK	17.5	-139	+104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	-102	-
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.958999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.16 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 28.4%, split 30.0%, L7 28.9%, season 25.3% (adj 1.14x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 11.6%, L7 4.7%, season 8.1% (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 15.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.13 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-122) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-121	-110	-
DK	17.5	-122	-109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 18.697 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.66 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.4%, L7 24.0%, season 24.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 11.0%, L7 9.9%, season 9.7% (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Over 17.5 (-124) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-130	-103	-
DK	17.5	-124	-107	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-118	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.579 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 83 PA | K% 12.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .295 | OPS .850
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.7%, BVP 12.0%/83 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 10.1%, L7 5.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 4.8%/83 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 18.5 (-149) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+115	-160	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	18.5	+115	-154	-
DK	18.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	18.5	+130	-174	-
Fanatics	18.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.428 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 5.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .150 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.7%, L7 29.4%, season 23.0%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 8.2%, L7 7.1%, season 8.3%, BVP 16.7%/24 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 16.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — George Kirby Under 17.5 (+117) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +117

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-152	+114	-
DK	17.5	-156	+117	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.096999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.90 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 78 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .316 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.9%, L7 23.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 14.1%/78 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 8.5%, L7 6.4%, season 8.6%, BVP 1.3%/78 PA (adj 0.89x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 17.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Under 17.5 (-120) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 17.33 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-118	-115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	17.5	-112	-120	-
DK	17.5	-111	-120	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-110	-120	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.241 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.88 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 17.33 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 84 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .218 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 15.7%, L7 19.0%, season 21.2%, BVP 28.6%/84 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 9.3%, L7 5.8%, season 9.3%, BVP 7.1%/84 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 (-147) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 8 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .375 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 27.4%, L7 27.2%, season 21.8% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jeffrey Springs Under 5.5 (-143) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-143	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.46, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 124 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .155 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 27.6%, season 23.4%, BVP 25.8%/124 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-143) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-143	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.89 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 105 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .242 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 22.1%, L7 16.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 20.0%/105 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Aaron Nola Under 5.5 (-135) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 447 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .288 | OPS .881
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.8%, L7 20.6%, season 21.7%, BVP 23.9%/447 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Under 5.5 (-126) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.93x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .150 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.7%, L7 29.4%, season 23.0%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Max Scherzer Over 1.5 (-104) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.07489029873648 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .225 | OPS .717
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 22.8%, L7 29.1%, season 24.5%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 11.6%, L7 8.4%, season 9.8%, BVP 9.1%/55 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — George Kirby Under 1.5 (-234) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.1618608751266233 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.4 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 34.3% / under 65.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 78 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .316 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.9%, L7 23.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 14.1%/78 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 8.5%, L7 6.4%, season 8.6%, BVP 1.3%/78 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shota Imanaga Under 1.5 (-126) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.18062651977472 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.1 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 74 PA | K% 33.8% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .100 | OPS .263
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.5%, L7 17.3%, season 24.1%, BVP 33.8%/74 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.4%, L7 8.8%, season 9.1%, BVP 5.4%/74 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Mason Adams Over 1.5 (-150) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8037013616309272 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 22.4%, L7 29.8%, season 23.0% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.5%, L7 8.4%, season 9.1% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/3 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Yusei Kikuchi Over 1.5 (-195) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 61.8% / Under 38.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.739922103740537 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.8% / under 38.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 8 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .375 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 27.4%, L7 27.2%, season 21.8% (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 8.1%, L7 6.8%, season 9.0% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chris Bassitt Over 1.5 (-112) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6657744849406193 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 92 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .272 | OPS .815
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 18.3%, L7 15.1%, season 19.2%, BVP 13.0%/92 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 6.5%, L7 8.5%, season 7.4%, BVP 7.6%/92 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sonny Gray Over 1.5 (-125) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6119806884168661 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 105 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .242 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 22.1%, L7 16.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 20.0%/105 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.5%, L7 9.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.8%/105 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cade Cavalli Over 1.5 (-127) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6073928165469469 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.5 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 28.4%, split 30.0%, L7 28.9%, season 25.3% (adj 1.14x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 11.6%, L7 4.7%, season 8.1% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/30 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nolan McLean Over 2.5 (+123) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6671583774080054 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 5.7 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 6 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.4%, L7 24.0%, season 24.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 11.0%, L7 9.9%, season 9.7% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/28 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Seth Lugo Over 1.5 (-183) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -183 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.59083665858083 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 75 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .269 | OPS .711
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.2%, L7 26.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.7%/75 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 7.5%, L7 9.8%, season 8.5%, BVP 8.0%/75 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 (-148) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.431506374222648 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.51 over 4.6 IP (BB% 11.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 149 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 10.1% | AVG .229 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 21.4%, L7 16.2%, season 22.4%, BVP 19.5%/149 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 8.8%, L7 10.7%, season 8.6%, BVP 10.1%/149 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Parker Messick Under 1.5 (+108) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.4968845502046593 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 51 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .260 | OPS .654
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.2%, L7 21.5%, season 20.9%, BVP 29.4%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.7%, split 6.7%, L7 7.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.0%/51 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 14 play(s) (C 14)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Bassitt Over 2.5 (-112) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-112	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.02 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.70, ERA 4.86)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 92 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .272 | OPS .815
Opponent K profile: composite 17.1%, split 18.3%, L7 15.1%, season 19.2%, BVP 13.0%/92 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Under 2.5 (-161) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.02 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 4.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 74 PA | K% 33.8% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .100 | OPS .263
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 25.5%, L7 17.3%, season 24.1%, BVP 33.8%/74 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Aaron Nola Under 2.5 (-130) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.80, ERA 3.72)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 447 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .288 | OPS .881
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.8%, L7 20.6%, season 21.7%, BVP 23.9%/447 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (-107) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	-
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.29 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 5.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 144 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .248 | OPS .752
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 22.8%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6%, BVP 25.0%/144 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mason Adams Under 2.5 (-118) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.58 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 4.19)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 22.4%, L7 29.8%, season 23.0% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Over 2.5 (+119) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+119	-159	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.16 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.63, ERA 5.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 10 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .100 | OPS .300
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 17.8%, L7 19.6%, season 20.6% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/29 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — George Kirby Over 2.5 (-119) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	-
DK	2.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 5.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 78 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .316 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 18.9%, L7 23.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 14.1%/78 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Over 1.5 (-129) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.81 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.16, ERA 2.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 28.4%, split 30.0%, L7 28.9%, season 25.3% (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 21/30 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Sale Over 1.5 (-130) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.35 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 2.81, ERA 2.13)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 172 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .225 | OPS .621
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 20.3%, L7 24.3%, season 22.2%, BVP 30.2%/172 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/25 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Yusei Kikuchi Under 2.5 (-121) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	-
DK	2.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.56 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 4.57)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 8 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .375 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 27.4%, L7 27.2%, season 21.8% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-165) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	-
DK	2.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.88, ERA 4.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 84 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .218 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 15.7%, L7 19.0%, season 21.2%, BVP 28.6%/84 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Liberatore Over 2.5 (+107) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.02 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 6.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.078
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.6%, L7 30.3%, season 24.1%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Under 2.5 (-178) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-185	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.1% / under 59.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .150 | OPS .492
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.7%, L7 29.4%, season 23.0%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Scherzer Under 2.5 (-159) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.15 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 5.08, ERA 5.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .225 | OPS .717
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 22.8%, L7 29.1%, season 24.5%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

27 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	66.1	65.9	71.5	4	Slider (38% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Miguel Ullola	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	65.0	75.6	58.0	3	Slider (33% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 38.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	61.5	55.3	72.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	59.2	52.2	70.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	58.2	60.9	58.5	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	57.0	59.9	56.5	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	56.2	59.1	54.5	4	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	55.4	60.2	55.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	55.0	54.7	60.0	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	54.4	54.8	54.0	6	Curveball (42% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Wilber Dotel	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	54.4	54.6	58.0	4	Cutter (34% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	52.8	49.8	59.0	6	Sweeper (39% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Anthony Molina	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	50.7	46.5	56.5	5	Curveball (26% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	48.8	44.0	52.5	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	48.7	49.9	48.0	6	Sweeper (28% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	46.6	51.7	39.0	8	Curveball (41% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Yusei Kikuchi	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	45.6	55.8	34.5	5	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	45.1	51.0	40.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	44.6	37.0	49.5	5	Curveball (30% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	43.6	44.6	39.5	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	43.0	39.4	45.5	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals	42.8	46.6	37.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	42.4	42.4	41.5	7	Cutter (26% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	42.2	43.9	38.5	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Mason Adams	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	42.2	56.0	23.0	6	Curveball (58% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.369, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	40.3	42.7	36.0	7	Curveball (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	37.4	35.9	35.5	8	Cutter (23% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

27 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	L	17.4%	4.9	5.0	5.0	82	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	30.9%	6.6	6.0	6.1	111	deep	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	16.8%	5.4	5.0	5.1	91	normal	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals	R	22.3%	6.2	5.8	5.9	104	deep	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	24.6%	4.6	5.6	5.4	77	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	18.7%	4.7	5.0	4.9	79	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	18.5%	4.6	5.2	5.1	77	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	L	27.7%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Mason Adams	Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers	R	25.4%	4.4	4.6	5.2	74	short	full	23.00	77.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies	L	15.6%	5.9	5.6	5.7	99	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Miguel Ullola	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	28.4%	1.4	-	4.9	24	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	R	16.0%	4.7	5.5	5.3	79	short	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Yusei Kikuchi	Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals	L	22.1%	5.0	4.9	4.9	84	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	19.0%	4.3	4.2	4.2	72	short	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	R	21.9%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	28.3%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs New York Yankees	R	23.9%	6.2	5.8	6.0	104	deep	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs New York Mets	L	25.5%	4.4	4.9	4.8	74	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	R	25.6%	6.0	5.3	6.0	101	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Wilber Dotel	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs	R	22.2%	2.0	-	5.0	34	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	L	19.2%	4.6	5.3	5.2	77	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Anthony Molina	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	R	22.0%	3.4	5.0	5.2	57	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	R	18.9%	5.1	5.9	5.7	86	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox	L	26.4%	4.9	5.0	5.0	82	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	R	25.0%	5.8	5.7	6.0	97	normal	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.8%	5.2	4.5	4.6	87	normal	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels	R	32.0%	6.0	5.3	6.0	101	deep	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Chris Bassitt	Chris Bassitt Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	14.1	-3.4	19.3%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	normal	5.1	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	18.5	21.3	2.8	15.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.83 <= 3 min
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	19.6	2.1	11.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.4	77	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	19.4	1.9	10.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.9	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min
Cade Cavalli	Cade Cavalli Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	New York Mets @ New York Yankees	17.5	18.7	1.2	6.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	17.4	-1.1	5.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
George Kirby	George Kirby Under	Seattle Mariners @ Athletics	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.7	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.