MLB Full Audit
MLB Full Audit
Friday, September 11 2026
MARKET TRUST TIERS
18 market(s) with settled tracker history| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 650 | 55% | -27.52u | 52 | 56% | -1.97u | 305 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 551 | 58% | +5.35u | 37 | 59% | +0.18u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 733 | 55% | -47.64u | 100 | 48% | -19.14u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 490 | 62% | +2.34u | 64 | 72% | +9.38u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 135 | 48% | -14.15u | 6 | 50% | -0.45u | 3 | 67% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA
What each market needs to move stages| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS
27 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | 66.1 | 65.9 | 71.5 | 4 | Slider (38% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Miguel Ullola | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | 65.0 | 75.6 | 58.0 | 3 | Slider (33% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 38.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 61.5 | 55.3 | 72.0 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | 59.2 | 52.2 | 70.5 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels | 58.2 | 60.9 | 58.5 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.0 | 59.9 | 56.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | 56.2 | 59.1 | 54.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs New York Mets | 55.4 | 60.2 | 55.0 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs New York Yankees | 55.0 | 54.7 | 60.0 | 7 | Curveball (39% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | 54.4 | 54.8 | 54.0 | 6 | Curveball (42% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Wilber Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | 54.4 | 54.6 | 58.0 | 4 | Cutter (34% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | 52.8 | 49.8 | 59.0 | 6 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Molina | San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | 50.7 | 46.5 | 56.5 | 5 | Curveball (26% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | 48.8 | 44.0 | 52.5 | 7 | Sweeper (26% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 48.7 | 49.9 | 48.0 | 6 | Sweeper (28% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox | 46.6 | 51.7 | 39.0 | 8 | Curveball (41% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals | 45.6 | 55.8 | 34.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (31% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robbie Ray | San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 45.1 | 51.0 | 40.0 | 5 | Curveball (38% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Max Scherzer | Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | 44.6 | 37.0 | 49.5 | 5 | Curveball (30% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | 43.6 | 44.6 | 39.5 | 5 | Changeup (36% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies | 43.0 | 39.4 | 45.5 | 5 | Curveball (31% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals | 42.8 | 46.6 | 37.5 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 42.4 | 42.4 | 41.5 | 7 | Cutter (26% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 42.2 | 43.9 | 38.5 | 5 | Changeup (37% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Mason Adams | Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers | 42.2 | 56.0 | 23.0 | 6 | Curveball (58% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.369, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Bassitt | Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | 40.3 | 42.7 | 36.0 | 7 | Curveball (30% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | 37.4 | 35.9 | 35.5 | 8 | Cutter (23% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS
27 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | L | 17.4% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 82 | short | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 30.9% | 6.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 111 | deep | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Chris Bassitt | Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 16.8% | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 91 | normal | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals | R | 22.3% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 104 | deep | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 24.6% | 4.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 77 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 18.7% | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 79 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 18.5% | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 77 | short | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | L | 27.7% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Mason Adams | Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers | R | 25.4% | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 74 | short | full | 23.00 | 77.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies | L | 15.6% | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 99 | normal | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Miguel Ullola | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 28.4% | 1.4 | - | 4.9 | 24 | short | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4% |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox | R | 16.0% | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 79 | short | full | 35.50 | 64.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Los Angeles Angels vs Washington Nationals | L | 22.1% | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 84 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 19.0% | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 72 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 21.9% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 28.3% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs New York Yankees | R | 23.9% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs New York Mets | L | 25.5% | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 74 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | R | 25.6% | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Wilber Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | R | 22.2% | 2.0 | - | 5.0 | 34 | short | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Robbie Ray | San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | L | 19.2% | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 77 | short | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Anthony Molina | San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | R | 22.0% | 3.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 57 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.4 IP/start |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | R | 18.9% | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 86 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox | L | 26.4% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 82 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | R | 25.0% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Max Scherzer | Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 18.8% | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 87 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 32.0% | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE
11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | Chris Bassitt Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 14.1 | -3.4 | 19.3% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | normal | 5.1 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Chris Sale | Chris Sale Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | 18.5 | 21.3 | 2.8 | 15.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.83 <= 3 min |
| Parker Messick | Parker Messick Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 19.6 | 2.1 | 11.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min |
| Shota Imanaga | Shota Imanaga Under | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 15.5 | -2.0 | 11.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.4 | 77 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Over | Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 19.4 | 1.9 | 10.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.9 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min |
| Cade Cavalli | Cade Cavalli Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 8.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | New York Mets @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 18.7 | 1.2 | 6.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Over | Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Framber Valdez | Framber Valdez Under | Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers | 18.5 | 17.4 | -1.1 | 5.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Under | Seattle Mariners @ Athletics | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 2.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.7 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Taj Bradley | Taj Bradley Under | Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES
87 candidates evaluated| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -132 | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | ANG@NAT | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 9.3 | -132 | Fanatics Over 6.5 -125 | best price | 43.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade… | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@BRE | 7:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.6 | -165 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 | best price | 32.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Mason Adams Over | ROC@TIG | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 5.4 | -169 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | best price | 54.2% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Seth Lugo Under | ROY@SOX | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.2 | -156 | DK Under 4.5 -156 | exact | 27.7% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Max Scherzer Under | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -148 | DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact | 21.9% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Outs | Chris Bassitt Under | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 14.1 | -116 | Fanatics Under 17.5 -115 | best price | 19.3% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Hits All | Anthony Molina Under | PAD@GIA | 10:16 PM | 5.5 | 3.3 | -152 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 40.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | George Kirby Over | MAR@ATH | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 7.1 | -158 | DK Over 5.5 -158 | exact | 29.1% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Chris Bassitt Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -109 | DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | -128 | DK Over 5.5 -128 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Taj Bradley Over | GUA@TWI | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -149 | DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact | 49.5% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Framber Valdez Over | ROC@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -123 | DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact | 39.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-232); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Drew Rasmussen Under | AST@RAY | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -232 | DK Under 1.5 -232 | exact | 30.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-184); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Jeffrey Springs Under | MAR@ATH | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -184 | DK Under 2.5 -184 | exact | 22.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Wilber Dotel Over | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 0.5 | 1.4 | -160 | BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact | 180.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Robbie Ray Over | PAD@GIA | 10:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -152 | DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact | 66.7% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Dustin May Over | RED@BRE | 7:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -124 | DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Anthony Molina Under | PAD@GIA | 10:16 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -156 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 28.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Rasmussen Over | AST@RAY | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -135 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price | 26.7% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Carlos Rodon Under | MET@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -162 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Nolan McLean Under | MET@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -127 | DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -142 | DK Over 2.5 -142 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Sonny Gray Under | ROY@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Gusto Under | DOD@MAR | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -168 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jeffrey Springs Under | MAR@ATH | 9:40 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -154 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Parker Messick Over | GUA@TWI | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -172 | DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!✓––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 43.8% (9 books) | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | GUA@TWI | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 7.2 | +107 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 31.4% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.8 | -108 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 23.0% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (9 books) | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Chris Sale Over | PHI@BRA | 7:16 PM | 7.5 | 9.0 | +102 | Fanatics Over 7.5 +110 | best price | 20.3% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Molina Over | PAD@GIA | 10:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | -111 | BetOnline Over 3.5 -108 | best price | 16.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Over | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | +111 | DK Over 6.5 +111 | exact | 12.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Taj Bradley Over | GUA@TWI | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | +111 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue | 11.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | George Kirby Under | MAR@ATH | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | +107 | DK Under 4.5 +107 | exact | 10.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Carlos Rodon Under | MET@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -139 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 8.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Gusto Under | DOD@MAR | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -118 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -115 | best price | 7.6% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Kay Under | SOX@CAR | 8:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -160 | DK Under 4.5 -160 | exact | 7.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Under | MET@YAN | 7:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.1 | -146 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -120 | best price | 6.3% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Yusei Kikuchi Over | ANG@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -119 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 4.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Under | ROY@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -146 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | best price | 3.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Dustin May Under | RED@BRE | 7:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +109 | DK Under 5.5 +109 | exact | 0.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Chris Bassitt Under | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -126 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -122 | best price | 0.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs Over | MAR@ATH | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +128 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -154 | alt rescue | 0.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore Over | SOX@CAR | 8:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -103 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price | 0.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.83 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Chris Sale Over | PHI@BRA | 7:16 PM | 18.5 | 21.3 | +112 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price | 15.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Parker Messick Over | GUA@TWI | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.6 | -139 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price | 11.9% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.96 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shota Imanaga Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 17.5 | 15.5 | -110 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 11.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.91 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Over | ROY@SOX | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.4 | -179 | Fanatics Over 17.5 -165 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cade Cavalli Over | ANG@NAT | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -139 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -125 | best price | 8.3% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | MET@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.7 | -122 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -112 | best price | 6.8% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Drew Rasmussen Over | AST@RAY | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -124 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -118 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Framber Valdez Under | ROC@TIG | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 17.4 | -149 | DK Under 18.5 -149 | exact | 5.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | George Kirby Under | MAR@ATH | 9:40 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | +117 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price | 2.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Taj Bradley Under | GUA@TWI | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | -120 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -120 | best price | 1.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Yusei Kikuchi Under | ANG@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -147 | DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Hits All | Jeffrey Springs Under | MAR@ATH | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -143 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sonny Gray Under | ROY@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -143 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Under | PHI@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -135 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Framber Valdez Under | ROC@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -126 | DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Max Scherzer Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -104 | DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact | 38.3% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | George Kirby Under | MAR@ATH | 9:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -234 | DK Under 1.5 -234 | exact | 22.5% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Walks | Shota Imanaga Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -126 | DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact | 21.3% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Mason Adams Over | ROC@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -150 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 20.2% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Yusei Kikuchi Over | ANG@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -195 | DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Chris Bassitt Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -112 | DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact | 11.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Sonny Gray Over | ROY@SOX | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -125 | DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact | 7.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cade Cavalli Over | ANG@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -127 | DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact | 7.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Nolan McLean Over | MET@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +123 | DK Over 2.5 +123 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@SOX | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -183 | DK Over 1.5 -183 | exact | 6.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Carlos Rodon Under | MET@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -148 | DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact | 2.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Parker Messick Under | GUA@TWI | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +108 | DK Under 1.5 +108 | exact | 0.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Chris Bassitt Over | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -112 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Shota Imanaga Under | PIR@CUB | 2:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -161 | DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Under | PHI@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -130 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@BRE | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -107 | DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Mason Adams Under | ROC@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -118 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Anthony Kay Over | SOX@CAR | 8:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +119 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | George Kirby Over | MAR@ATH | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -119 | DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Cavalli Over | ANG@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -129 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price | 6.7% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Chris Sale Over | PHI@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -130 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Yusei Kikuchi Under | ANG@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -121 | DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Taj Bradley Under | GUA@TWI | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -165 | DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Liberatore Over | SOX@CAR | 8:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +107 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Framber Valdez Under | ROC@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -178 | DK Under 2.5 -178 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Max Scherzer Under | ORI@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -159 | DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Framber Valdez Over | ROC@TIG | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -155 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price | 14.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Under | AST@RAY | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -108 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robbie Ray Over | PAD@GIA | 10:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -123 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price | 5.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context