| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 144W–109L–0P | 57% | -12.43 u | Last 14 days • 253 settled |
| Grade A | 13W–9L–0P | 59% | -0.24 u | |
| Grade B | 131W–100L–0P | 57% | -12.19 u |
| Record | Win% | P&L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3876W–2454L–8P | 61% | -280.11 u | All-time • 6338 settled |
| Grade A | 281W–223L–0P | 56% | -13.98 u | |
| Grade B | 3593W–2222L–8P | 62% | -259.68 u |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Pitcher Hits Allow | Nathan Eovaldi | 5.5 | -143 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-05-14 | Batter Total Bases | Byron Buxton | 1.5 | -121 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-05-17 | Batter Total Bases | Shea Langeliers | 1.5 | -138 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-05-20 | Batter Total Bases | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | -131 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-01 | K Prop | Chase Burns | 6.5 | -148 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-08 | Batter Walks | Rodolfo Duran | 0.5 | -368 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-09 | Batter Walks | Tyler Freeman | 0.5 | -440 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-11 | Batter Hits | Jake McCarthy | 1.5 | -258 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-11 | Batter Walks | Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 | -434 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-12 | Batter Walks | Ezequiel Tovar | 0.5 | -409 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-13 | Batter Walks | Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 | -431 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-14 | Batter Walks | J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 | -370 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-14 | Batter Walks | Jimmy Crooks | 0.5 | -296 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-15 | Pitcher Walks | Troy Melton | 1.5 | -144 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-19 | Pitcher Earned Run | Cade Cavalli | 1.5 | -172 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-20 | K Prop | Nathan Eovaldi | 5.5 | -130 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-06-20 | Pitcher Earned Run | Nathan Eovaldi | 1.5 | -173 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-04 | Pitcher Walks | Tomoyuki Sugano | 1.5 | -186 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-24 | Batter Walks | Josh Lowe | 0.5 | -490 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-25 | Batter Walks | Jake Burger | 0.5 | -442 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-26 | Batter Walks | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 0.5 | -393 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-26 | Batter Walks | Jung Hoo Lee | 0.5 | -356 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-27 | Batter Walks | Jung Hoo Lee | 0.5 | -388 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-28 | Batter Hits | Curtis Mead | 1.5 | -244 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-28 | Batter Walks | Josh Lowe | 0.5 | -396 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-29 | Batter Walks | Elieser Hernández | 0.5 | -400 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-29 | Batter Walks | LaMonte Wade Jr. | 0.5 | -160 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-29 | Pitcher Earned Run | Christian Scott | 2.5 | -175 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-31 | Batter Walks | Marco Gonzales | 0.5 | -550 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-31 | Pitcher Earned Run | Casey Mize | 2.5 | -115 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-07-31 | Pitcher Hits Allow | Casey Mize | 5.5 | -131 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-01 | Batter Walks | Josh Bell | 0.5 | -270 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-01 | Batter Walks | Luis Arraez | 0.5 | -400 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-01 | K Prop | Jose Soriano | 5.5 | -136 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-02 | Batter Walks | Brett Baty | 0.5 | -536 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-02 | Batter Walks | Jahmai Jones | 0.5 | -290 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-02 | K Prop | Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) | 3.5 | -120 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-02 | K Prop | Michael King | 5.5 | -101 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-02 | Pitcher Earned Run | Michael King | 1.5 | -172 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-02 | Pitcher Walks | Michael King | 1.5 | -171 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-03 | Batter Walks | Hunter Feduccia | 0.5 | -208 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-03 | Batter Walks | J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 | -330 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-03 | Batter Walks | LaMonte Wade Jr. | 0.5 | -257 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-03 | Batter Walks | Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 | -280 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-04 | Batter Walks | Jordan Walker | 0.5 | -328 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-04 | Pitcher Hits Allow | Ian Seymour | 5.5 | -145 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-04 | Pitcher Hits Allow | Michael King | 5.5 | -150 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-05 | Batter Walks | Ketel Marte | 0.5 | -195 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-07 | Batter Walks | Brooks Lee | 0.5 | -500 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-07 | Batter Walks | Cedric Mullins | 0.5 | -450 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-07 | Batter Walks | Joey Ortiz | 0.5 | -440 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-07 | K Prop | Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) | 3.5 | -135 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-09 | Batter Walks | Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 | -800 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-10 | Batter Walks | Kody Clemens | 0.5 | -450 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-12 | Batter Walks | Chandler Simpson | 0.5 | -350 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-13 | Batter Walks | Jacob Young | 0.5 | -550 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-14 | Batter Walks | Christian Franklin | 0.5 | -310 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-14 | Batter Walks | Spencer Horwitz | 0.5 | -320 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-15 | Batter Walks | Dansby Swanson | 0.5 | -252 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-15 | Batter Walks | Hunter Goodman | 0.5 | -550 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-15 | Batter Walks | Jose Fermin | 0.5 | -287 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-15 | Batter Walks | Kody Clemens | 0.5 | -475 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-15 | Batter Walks | Nick Gonzales | 0.5 | -550 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-16 | Batter Walks | Nick Gonzales | 0.5 | -357 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-16 | Batter Walks | Ronny Simon | 0.5 | -322 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-16 | Batter Walks | TJ Rumfield | 0.5 | -270 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-16 | Batter Walks | Trea Turner | 0.5 | -375 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-16 | Batter Walks | Victor Bericoto | 0.5 | -525 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-17 | Batter Walks | Jahmai Jones | 0.5 | -310 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-17 | Batter Walks | Ketel Marte | 0.5 | -255 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-17 | Batter Walks | Max Kepler | 0.5 | -320 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-18 | Batter Walks | Nick Gonzales | 0.5 | -550 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-18 | Batter Walks | Willy Adames | 0.5 | -240 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-18 | K Prop | Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) | 3.5 | -135 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-19 | Batter Walks | Jo Adell | 0.5 | -330 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-20 | Batter Walks | Jacob Young | 0.5 | -525 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-08-29 | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Feltner | 2.5 | -207 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-09-02 | Pitcher Earned Run | Jared Jones | 1.5 | -130 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-09-04 | K Prop | - Jackson Kent | 3.5 | -115 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-09-10 | K Prop | Cristian Javier | 3.5 | -172 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-09-10 | K Prop | Jared Jones | 5.5 | -143 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-09-10 | Pitcher Earned Run | Jared Jones | 1.5 | -143 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-09-10 | Pitcher Earned Run | Logan Gilbert | 1.5 | -148 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-09-10 | Pitcher Earned Run | Zack Wheeler | 1.5 | -138 | - | PENDING | - | |
| 2026-09-10 | Pitcher Walks | Nick Martinez | 1.5 | -207 | - | PENDING | - |
| Date | Type | Play | Line | Odds | Size | Result | P&L | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | K Prop | Hunter Brown | 4.5 | -146 | - | WIN | +0.685 | Hunter Brown: 7.0 (line 4.5) |
| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 648 | 55% | -28.80u | 50 | 54% | -3.25u | 303 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 551 | 58% | +5.35u | 37 | 59% | +0.18u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 730 | 55% | -46.31u | 97 | 48% | -17.81u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 489 | 62% | +1.85u | 63 | 71% | +8.90u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 135 | 48% | -14.15u | 6 | 50% | -0.45u | 3 | 67% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Component | Status | Current Usage | Recommendation Impact | Next Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 648, 14d N 50 | Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output. | Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 551, 14d N 37 | Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output. | Maintain Trusted; No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0 | Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output. | Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10 |
| PitcherAssessment | LIVE | Shared pitcher context; 10 starter assessment(s) emitted. | Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere. | Monitor assessment quality and data gaps. |
| Savant Pitch Quality | LIVE | Free public-data diagnostics; 10/10 assessment(s) scored. | Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations. | Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation. |
| Player Context | LIVE | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics. | Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes. | Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them. |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0 | Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence. | ✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 6 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0 | Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated. | 👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0 | No actionable recommendations. | 🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| Batter Hits Runs RBIs | ⛔ PAUSED | Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s) | No actionable recommendations. | Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing. |
| HRR Component Research | ⛔ PAUSED | Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted. | No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused. | Validate component record before unpausing HRR. |
| AI Review | API ERROR | Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds. | Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project. |
This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
| ✓ | READY | Available | Savant: 852 pitcher(s) with metrics |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Pitcher arsenal: 819 pitcher(s), 3655 pitch-type profiles |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Batter pitch-type profiles: 604 player(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Handedness: 10 pitcher(s) | Team splits: 30 team(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Team recent batting: 10 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates |
| ◴ | LATE DATA | Non-blocking | Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | BVP context: 10 roster team(s), 141 hitter(s) | 10 SP matchup(s), 750 career PA |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Batter handedness: 141 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted |
| ◴ | LATE DATA | Non-blocking | Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Rest data: 10 team(s) | Back-to-back: New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Bullpen data: 10 team(s) | Fatigued pens: Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions |
| ✓ | READY | Available | First-inning artifact: loaded | 10 materialized half-inning row(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Savant first-inning pitcher context: 367 pitcher(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 5/5 game(s) with pitching props | K 10 line(s)/5 game(s); Outs 10 line(s)/5 game(s); Hits Allowed 11 line(s)/5 game(s); Walks 6 line(s)/3 game(s); Earned Runs 9 line(s)/5 game(s) | selected sources: draftkings 42, bovada_direct 4 |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Line movement: 132 market side(s) checked | 132 opening snapshot(s) created | 0 with movement |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled |
| ⚠ | LIMITED | Non-blocking | F5: disabled |
| ✓ | READY | Available | No-HR model: 5 game(s) scored | 0 above probability threshold | 0 with DK implied prob |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HR layers: batter Statcast 654 | batter bats 721 | batter hand splits 139 | pitcher HR splits 50 | batter pitch-type 604 | bullpen HR 31 |
| ✓ | READY | Available | HR model: 0 batter(s) scored | 5 game environment(s) scored | 0 strong/elite batter edge(s) |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports |
| ✓ | READY | Available | Probability shadow: 72 record(s) frozen | replay passed | activation blocked |
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Away ML | Home ML | Away RL | Home RL | Total | Con ML | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | 12:15 PM | -101 | -120 | -1.5 (+167) | 1.5 (-204) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | ML: DK | RL: DK | Total: DK | Bet on DK |
| Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | 1:06 PM | +161 | -196 | 1.5 (-132) | -1.5 (+110) | O/U 8.5 | HOME | ML: DK | RL: DK | Total: DK | Bet on DK |
| Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | 4:10 PM | +105 | -126 | 1.5 (-217) | -1.5 (+177) | O/U 6.5 | HOME | ML: DK | RL: DK | Total: DK | Bet on DK |
| Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | 7:05 PM | +266 | -338 | 1.5 (+119) | -1.5 (-144) | O/U 9.0 | HOME | ML: DK | RL: DK | Total: DK | Bet on DK |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | 7:41 PM | -110 | -110 | -1.5 (+159) | 1.5 (-194) | O/U 7.5 | HOME | ML: DK | RL: DK | Total: DK | Bet on DK |
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A ⭐ Featured | ⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -172, expected IP 4.3 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Cristian Javier Over | AST@PHI | 1:06 PM | 3.5 | 5.8 | -172 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -160 | best price | 67.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Jared Jones Over | PIR@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 7.3 | -143 | DK Over 5.5 -143 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 3.5 | -160 | +120 | Raw BestVerify |
| BetOnline | 3.5 | -164 | +125 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 3.5 | -160 | +120 | - |
| DK | 3.5 | -172 | +134 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | -160 | +124 | Recommended |
| MyBookie | 3.5 | -165 | +119 | - |
| theScore Bet | 3.5 | -165 | +120 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 5.5 | -152 | +117 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | -150 | +115 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | -143 | +112 | SelectedRecommended |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | -150 | +118 | - |
| Fanatics | 5.5 | -160 | +120 | - |
| MyBookie | 5.5 | -154 | +111 | - |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | -155 | +110 | - |
| BetMGM | 6.5 | +120 | -160 | Raw BestVerify |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | +154 | -207 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 1.5 | +145 | -215 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | -148 | +111 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Fanatics | 1.5 | -165 | +115 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 | -140 | +105 | - |
| BetOnline | 6.5 | -125 | -103 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 6.5 | -125 | -105 | - |
| DK | 6.5 | -120 | -106 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 6.5 | -122 | -104 | - |
| Fanatics | 6.5 | -120 | -110 | - |
| MyBookie | 6.5 | -114 | -121 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 6.5 | -125 | -110 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 | -120 | -110 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| BetOnline | 6.5 | -123 | -104 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 6.5 | -130 | +100 | - |
| DK | 6.5 | -126 | -102 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 6.5 | -128 | +100 | - |
| MyBookie | 6.5 | -127 | -108 | - |
| theScore Bet | 6.5 | -125 | -110 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 3.5 | +125 | -165 | - |
| BetOnline | 3.5 | +128 | -167 | - |
| DK | 3.5 | +127 | -162 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | +136 | -178 | - |
| MyBookie | 3.5 | +121 | -168 | - |
| theScore Bet | 3.5 | +120 | -165 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 3.5 | -105 | -125 | - |
| BetOnline | 3.5 | -105 | -123 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 3.5 | +100 | -130 | - |
| DK | 3.5 | +105 | -134 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | +100 | -128 | - |
| Fanatics | 3.5 | +100 | -130 | - |
| MyBookie | 3.5 | -109 | -127 | - |
| theScore Bet | 3.5 | -110 | -125 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 5.5 | -120 | -110 | - |
| BetOnline | 5.5 | -108 | -120 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | -105 | -125 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | -104 | -123 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | -104 | -122 | - |
| MyBookie | 5.5 | -111 | -124 | - |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | -110 | -125 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 4.5 | +110 | -150 | - |
| BetOnline | 4.5 | +112 | -145 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 4.5 | +115 | -150 | - |
| DK | 4.5 | +116 | -148 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | +114 | -146 | - |
| Fanatics | 4.5 | +115 | -150 | - |
| MyBookie | 4.5 | +107 | -148 | - |
| theScore Bet | 4.5 | +105 | -150 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 | -105 | -125 | - |
| BetOnline | 6.5 | -103 | -125 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| Bovada Direct | 6.5 | -110 | -120 | - |
| DK | 6.5 | -108 | -118 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 6.5 | -108 | -118 | - |
| Fanatics | 6.5 | -105 | -125 | - |
| MyBookie | 6.5 | -107 | -128 | - |
| theScore Bet | 6.5 | -110 | -125 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 17.5 | -120 | -120 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 17.5 | -110 | -130 | - |
| Caesars | 17.5 | -110 | -121 | - |
| DK | 17.5 | -106 | -125 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 17.5 | -102 | -132 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| Fanatics | 17.5 | -110 | -130 | - |
| theScore Bet | 17.5 | -110 | -130 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 17.5 | -160 | +120 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 17.5 | -160 | +120 | - |
| Caesars | 17.5 | -164 | +122 | - |
| DK | 17.5 | -158 | +119 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| FanDuel | 17.5 | -160 | +122 | - |
| theScore Bet | 17.5 | -165 | +115 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada Direct | 17.5 | -160 | +120 | - |
| Caesars | 17.5 | -162 | +121 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| DK | 17.5 | -157 | +118 | Selected |
| FanDuel | 17.5 | -166 | +120 | - |
| Fanatics | 17.5 | -170 | +120 | - |
| theScore Bet | 17.5 | -165 | +115 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 5.5 | -110 | -120 | Raw BestVerify |
| DK | 5.5 | +107 | -142 | Selected |
| Fanatics | 5.5 | -120 | -120 | Recommended |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | -105 | -135 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 5.5 | +105 | -145 | - |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | +110 | -150 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | +111 | -148 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | +105 | -150 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 5.5 | -115 | -115 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| Bovada Direct | 5.5 | -105 | -135 | - |
| DK | 5.5 | +100 | -133 | Selected |
| theScore Bet | 5.5 | -115 | -125 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | +102 | -135 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 1.5 | +100 | -135 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | -163 | +122 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 1.5 | -165 | +120 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | -110 | -120 | Selected |
| theScore Bet | 1.5 | -115 | -115 | RecommendedRaw Best |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | -163 | +122 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 1.5 | -165 | +120 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | -135 | +102 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| theScore Bet | 1.5 | -135 | +100 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 3.5 | +108 | -143 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Fanatics | 3.5 | +105 | -150 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | -113 | -118 | SelectedRecommendedRaw Best |
| Fanatics | 2.5 | -130 | -110 | - |
| Book | Line | Over | Under | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 2.5 | +103 | -137 | Selected |
| Fanatics | 2.5 | -105 | -135 | RecommendedRaw Best |
No bets meet the threshold today.
No bets meet the threshold today.
No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.
HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.
No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hagen Smith | Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 69.7 | 78.5 | 75.5 | 4 | Slider (43% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 34.2%, put-away 26.4%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros | 67.9 | 67.8 | 72.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (46% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies | 66.9 | 54.1 | 83.5 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.248, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | 65.7 | 74.7 | 61.5 | 5 | Changeup (47% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 34.2%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox | 64.1 | 71.0 | 60.0 | 4 | Slider (40% whiff, 35% usage) | Savant whiff 32.0%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | 58.9 | 63.3 | 58.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cristian Javier | Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies | 50.0 | 61.0 | 37.5 | 7 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves | 41.2 | 34.0 | 49.5 | 6 | Changeup (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees | 40.4 | 44.5 | 33.5 | 6 | Changeup (46% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays | 40.1 | 40.3 | 40.5 | 5 | Changeup (35% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 16.6% | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4% |
| Hagen Smith | Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 28.8% | 1.9 | - | 5.0 | 32 | short | full | 75.50 | 24.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.9 IP/start |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees | R | 17.4% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | 33.50 | 66.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Cristian Javier | Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 24.2% | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 74 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies | L | 24.8% | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 82 | short | full | 83.50 | 16.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros | R | 28.7% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox | R | 28.0% | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 74 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | R | 27.0% | 5.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 84 | short | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves | R | 15.8% | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | R | 30.3% | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | Nick Martinez Over | Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 5.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Over | Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 5.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Logan Gilbert | Logan Gilbert Under | Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 2.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 6.0 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.
| Section | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Today's Signal Board | Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context. |
| Ranked Signals | Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit. |
| Market Confidence | Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers. |
| Signal Promotion Criteria | The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted. |
| Signal Source Matrix | Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed. |
| Data Readiness | Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context. |
| Today's Slate | Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown. |
| Detail Sections | Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board. |
Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.
| Layer | What it evaluates | Supports when |
|---|---|---|
| Line Fit | Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion | The available line falls within a model-friendly range. |
| Model Edge | Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line | Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type. |
| Market Alignment | Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books | The market agrees with the model side. |
| Matchup | Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context | Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side. |
| Availability | Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity | Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present. |
| Game Context | Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions | Game conditions support the signal direction. |
| Grade | Model strength | Tier | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | Strongest model grade | Best Signal | Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align. |
| B | Strong model grade with caveats | Add Signal | Playable supporting recommendation. |
| C | Thin or lower-confidence model grade | No-Play | Audited but not a standard playable recommendation. |
| D | Weak signal | No-Play | Skip unless another trusted process overrides it. |
| F | Strong evidence against the evaluated side | Fade Signal | Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive. |
Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.
Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.
| Display | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ⭐ Featured | Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board. |
| ✅ Best Signal | Trusted market with an A-grade model signal. |
| Watch Signal | Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting. |
| Research Only | Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation. |
| Paused | Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture. |
When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.
| Pattern | Why it conflicts |
|---|---|
| Total Over + NRFI | High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning |
| Total Under + YRFI | Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st |
| K Prop Over + YRFI | Pitcher dominates yet run scores early |
| Batter Overs + Total Under | Player production expected but game total is low |
| Outs Over + K Under (same SP) | Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency |
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Progress bar | Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage |
| used / total | Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch) |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Away ML / Home ML | Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130 |
| Away RL / Home RL | Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+ |
| Total | Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5) |
| Sources | The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote. |
| Con ML | Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor |
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Grade | Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted. |
| Type | Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total |
| Source / Odds | The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side |
| Implied | Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal |
| Model | Win probability our model calculates independently |
| Edge | Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet. |
| EV/$100 | Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100) |
| Books | Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes. |
The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?
It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.
The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.
For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:
| Step | What it calculates | Data source | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Pitching edge | How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20.home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitchA positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP. |
FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck | 50% |
| 2. Offense edge | How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100.home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100off_edge = home_bat − away_batA team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10. |
MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via (OPS / 0.720) × 100 |
35% |
| 3. Home field | Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game. | Historical MLB average home-field effect | +4% |
| 4. Score diff | score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04 |
Combined signal driving the probability below | |
| 5. Win probability | home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%. |
Standard logistic sigmoid: 1 / (1 + e−x) |
|
Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:
| Source | Weight | Stats blended |
|---|---|---|
| Season-to-date (FanGraphs) | 65% | xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 |
| Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs) | 35% | ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals |
xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.
For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:
| Step | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Base | 2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0 |
| SP factor | Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky. |
| Offense factor | Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100). |
| Raw total | 9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor) |
| Park adjustment | Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: 0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted |
Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96
The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.
| Usage type | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Active recommendation market | Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules. |
| Held / gated market | Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears. |
| Shadow research | Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations. |
| Diagnostic-only source | Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them. |
| Component | Purpose | Recommendation impact today |
|---|---|---|
| PitcherAssessment | Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps. | Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them. |
| Savant Pitch Quality | Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch. | Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations. |
| Pitcher Outs Research Gate | Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason. | Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates. |
| HRR Component Research | Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes. | Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold. |
| Player Context | Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools. | Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context. |
| AI Review | Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior. | Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status. |
Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.
| State | Impact | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| READY | Available | The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section. |
| LATE DATA | Non-blocking | The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires. |
| PARTIAL | Non-blocking | The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run. |
| MARKET UNAVAILABLE | Non-blocking | The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally. |
| SOURCE MISSING | Non-blocking unless marked otherwise | The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk. |
| LIMITED | Non-blocking | The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated. |
| BLOCKING | Action needed | A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty. |
The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.
| State | How it is used |
|---|---|
| Pre-lineup | Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data. |
| Confirmed lineup | Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates. |
| No roster coverage | The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data. |
| Artifact | Use it for |
|---|---|
| Main HTML report | Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide. |
| Full audit HTML | Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds. |
| Audit JSON | Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates. |
| Performance report | Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping. |
| Tracker CSV | Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows. |
| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 2026 Model Probability | The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding. |
| Fair Odds | The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price. |
| Raw / Effective Edge | Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer. |
| Starter and lineup status | Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer. |
| Book coverage | Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table. |
| Signal layers | Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade. |
| Label | Edge Required | Suggested Unit Size |
|---|---|---|
| FULL | ≥20% | Full unit |
| HALF | ≥15% | Half unit |
| QRTR | ≥15% | Quarter unit (data quality cap) |
| (none) | <15% | No bet — below threshold |
| Label | What it means |
|---|---|
| HIGH | Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles |
| MED | One or more data sources are missing or incomplete |
| LOW | Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| xFIP | Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20 |
| wRC+ | Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API |
| Recent form | Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65% |
| Park factor | Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92 |
| Edge | Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal) |
| EV/$100 | Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake) |
| F5 bets | First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP |
| DK note | The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier |
Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.