MLB Betting Analyzer — Full Audit

Thursday, September 10 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WRReview-only N
K Prop✅ TRUSTED64855%-28.80u5054%-3.25u30356%64
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED55158%+5.35u3759%+0.18u450%6
Run Line✅ TRUSTED17358%+7.01u0-+0.00u4661%1
Batter Walks👀 WATCH208474%-55.49u0-+0.00u875%134
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH73055%-46.31u9748%-17.81u1100%9
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH48962%+1.85u6371%+8.90u0-11
Batter Hits👀 WATCH5571%-0.17u0-+0.00u0-23
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH3551%-1.50u0-+0.00u0-37
F5 ML👀 WATCH3044%+2.54u0-+0.00u0-0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH1127%-5.27u0-+0.00u0-0
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-0
NRFI👀 WATCH520%-2.00u0-+0.00u0-4
YRFI👀 WATCH450%-2.00u0-+0.00u0-7
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH13548%-14.15u650%-0.45u367%8
Total🔬 RESEARCH6239%-13.07u0-+0.00u1100%7
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH3842%-10.07u0-+0.00u10%6
No HR🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u0-+0.00u0-0
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED60952%-60.11u0-+0.00u8653%355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted4/4No blocker
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d sample >= 10
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted5/5No blocker
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

10 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Hagen SmithChicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates69.778.575.54Slider (43% whiff, 31% usage)Savant whiff 34.2%, put-away 26.4%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zack WheelerPhiladelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros67.967.872.06Split-Finger (46% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Max FriedNew York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies66.954.183.57Changeup (30% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.248, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGromTexas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners65.774.761.55Changeup (47% whiff, 13% usage)Savant whiff 34.2%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jared JonesPittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox64.171.060.04Slider (40% whiff, 35% usage)Savant whiff 32.0%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Logan GilbertSeattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers58.963.358.06Split-Finger (40% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cristian JavierHouston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies50.061.037.57Sweeper (40% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Nick MartinezTampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves41.234.049.56Changeup (32% whiff, 27% usage)Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan FeltnerColorado Rockies vs New York Yankees40.444.533.56Changeup (46% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Martín PérezAtlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays40.140.340.55Changeup (35% whiff, 31% usage)Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

10 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Martín PérezAtlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay RaysL16.6%4.75.05.079shortfull40.5059.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Hagen SmithChicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesL28.8%1.9-5.032shortfull75.5024.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 1.9 IP/start
Ryan FeltnerColorado Rockies vs New York YankeesR17.4%4.84.94.980shortfull33.5066.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Cristian JavierHouston Astros vs Philadelphia PhilliesR24.2%4.44.04.274shortfull37.5062.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.4 IP/start
Max FriedNew York Yankees vs Colorado RockiesL24.8%4.95.65.582shortfull83.5016.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start
Zack WheelerPhiladelphia Phillies vs Houston AstrosR28.7%5.25.75.687normalfull72.0028.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Jared JonesPittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White SoxR28.0%4.44.64.674shortfull60.0040.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.4 IP/start
Logan GilbertSeattle Mariners vs Texas RangersR27.0%5.05.96.084shortfull58.0042.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start
Nick MartinezTampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta BravesR15.8%6.15.96.0102deepfull49.5050.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Jacob deGromTexas Rangers vs Seattle MarinersR30.3%4.85.35.280shortfull61.5038.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

3/3 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Nick MartinezNick Martinez OverTampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves17.518.40.95.2%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.0102season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zack WheelerZack Wheeler OverHouston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies17.518.40.95.0%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.687season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan GilbertLogan Gilbert UnderTexas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners17.517.1-0.42.3%CALT_DERISKresearchshort6.084season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

32 candidates evaluated
← Back to Picks
GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffSignal Breakdown ✓!✗–Tier
► Best Signals
A ⭐ Featured⭐ Featured
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -172, expected IP 4.3 below A-grade leash
K PropCristian Javier OverAST@PHI1:06 PM3.55.8-172FanDuel Over 3.5 -160 | best price67.1%✓✓✓✓––Best Signal
A✅ Best Signal
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash
K PropJared Jones OverPIR@SOX7:41 PM5.57.3-143DK Over 5.5 -143 | exact32.0%✓✓✓✓––Best Signal
► Add Signals
B👀 Watch Signal
Heavy juice (-207); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution
Pitcher WalksNick Martinez UnderRAY@BRA12:15 PM1.50.9-207DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact41.7%✓✓!–––Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
Pitcher Earned RLogan Gilbert OverRAN@MAR4:10 PM1.52.2-148DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact46.7%✓✓!––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Earned RZack Wheeler OverAST@PHI1:06 PM1.51.9-138DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact26.7%✓✓!––!Add Signal
B👀 Watch Signal
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)
Pitcher Earned RJared Jones OverPIR@SOX7:41 PM1.51.9-143DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact26.7%✓✓!––!Add Signal
► Lean Signals (Derisked)
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropMartin Perez UnderRAY@BRA12:15 PM3.53.0-162DK Under 3.5 -162 | exact14.0%✓✗!✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropMartín Pérez UnderRAY@BRA12:15 PM3.53.0-180Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -180 | exact14.0%✓✗!✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropNick Martinez OverRAY@BRA12:15 PM3.53.9+105DK Over 3.5 +105 | exact11.0%✓✗✗✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropMax Fried OverROC@YAN7:05 PM5.56.1-104DK Over 5.5 -104 | exact10.6%✓✗✗✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropRyan Feltner OverROC@YAN7:05 PM4.54.8+116DK Over 4.5 +116 | exact7.4%✓✗✗!––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D
K PropZack Wheeler OverAST@PHI1:06 PM6.56.7-108BetOnline Over 6.5 -103 | best price3.0%✓✗✗✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsNick Martinez OverRAY@BRA12:15 PM17.518.4-106FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price5.2%✓✗✗–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsZack Wheeler OverAST@PHI1:06 PM17.518.4-158DK Over 17.5 -158 | exact5.0%✓✗✓––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsLogan Gilbert UnderRAN@MAR4:10 PM17.517.1+118Caesars Under 17.5 +121 | best price2.3%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllMartin Perez UnderRAY@BRA12:15 PM5.55.3-142Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | best price3.6%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllMartín Pérez UnderRAY@BRA12:15 PM5.55.3-145Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | exact3.6%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllRyan Feltner OverROC@YAN7:05 PM5.55.7+111DK Over 5.5 +111 | exact3.6%✓✗✗–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllNick Martinez UnderRAY@BRA12:15 PM5.55.4-133BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price1.8%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher WalksMartin Perez OverRAY@BRA12:15 PM1.52.0+102DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact35.1%✓✓✗–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher WalksZack Wheeler OverAST@PHI1:06 PM1.51.8-163DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact17.5%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksLogan Gilbert UnderRAN@MAR4:10 PM1.51.4-120theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price4.3%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksCristian Javier OverAST@PHI1:06 PM1.51.5-163DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact2.2%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher WalksJacob deGrom UnderRAN@MAR4:10 PM1.51.5+102DK Under 1.5 +102 | exact1.0%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
Pitcher Earned RJacob deGrom OverRAN@MAR4:10 PM1.51.8-135DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact20.0%✓!!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C↘ Lean Signal - DeriskedPitcher Earned RRyan Feltner UnderROC@YAN7:05 PM3.52.9-143DK Under 3.5 -143 | exact17.1%✓!!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RMartin Perez UnderRAY@BRA12:15 PM2.52.3-155DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact8.0%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RNick Martinez OverRAY@BRA12:15 PM2.52.7-113DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact8.0%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RCristian Javier UnderAST@PHI1:06 PM2.52.3-137Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price8.0%✓✗!––!Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RMax Fried OverROC@YAN7:05 PM1.51.6-128DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact6.7%✓✗!–––Lean Signal - Derisked
► Watch Signals
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D
K PropLogan Gilbert OverRAN@MAR4:10 PM6.57.4-120MyBookie Over 6.5 -114 | best price14.0%✓✗✓✓––Watch Signal
B (Review)◇ Watch Signal
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D
K PropJacob deGrom OverRAN@MAR4:10 PM6.57.4-126BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price13.8%✓✗✓✓––Watch Signal

✓ Supports   ! Mixed   ✗ Opposes   – No Data  |  Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context