MLB Bets 2026-09-09

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	132W–90L–0P	59%	-1.99 u	Last 14 days • 222 settled
Grade A	12W–9L–0P	57%	-0.92 u
Grade B	120W–81L–0P	60%	-1.07 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3864W–2435L–8P	61%	-269.67 u	All-time • 6307 settled
Grade A	280W–223L–0P	56%	-14.67 u
Grade B	3582W–2203L–8P	62%	-248.56 u

110 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	K Prop	Cody Bradford	4.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	K Prop	Cristopher Sánchez	6.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	K Prop	Griffin Jax	4.5	100	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	K Prop	Hunter Brown	4.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	K Prop	Jake Bennett	5.5	128	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	K Prop	Janson Junk	3.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	K Prop	Kevin Gausman	5.5	-108	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	K Prop	Robert Stock	4.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Andre Pallante	1.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Brady Basso	0.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristopher Sanchez	2.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Daniel Lynch IV	2.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Davis Martin	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Foster Griffin	2.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Griffin Jax	1.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Hunter Brown	2.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Jake Bennett	2.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Janson Junk	2.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Kade Anderson	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Lake Bachar	0.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Walker Buehler	1.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Zac Gallen	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Daniel Lynch IV	5.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Foster Griffin	5.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hunter Brown	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jake Bennett	5.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Keider Montero	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Johnson	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Walks	Blade Tidwell	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-09	Pitcher Walks	Walker Buehler	1.5	-128	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-08	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	3.5	-142	-	LOSS	-1.000	Hayden Wesneski: 3.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-08	K Prop	Reid Detmers	5.5	-149	-	WIN	+0.671	Reid Detmers: 9.0 (line 5.5)
2026-09-08	K Prop	Brandon Young	3.5	-128	-	LOSS	-1.000	Brandon Young: 2.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-08	K Prop	Jack Perkins	3.5	-143	-	LOSS	-1.000	Jack Perkins: 3.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	640	55%	-29.59u	42	52%	-4.03u	302	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	545	58%	+6.33u	31	61%	+1.16u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	716	56%	-35.62u	83	54%	-7.11u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	486	62%	+1.40u	60	72%	+8.45u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	135	48%	-14.15u	6	50%	-0.45u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 8 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 640, 14d N 42	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 545, 14d N 31	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 852 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 819 pitcher(s), 3649 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 604 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 421 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 817 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 421 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Athletics, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 367 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 30 line(s)/14 game(s); Outs 32 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 30 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 15 line(s)/8 game(s); Earned Runs 29 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 111, betmgm 10, bovada_direct 8, fanatics 5, espnbet 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 392 market side(s) checked \| 392 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 654 \| batter bats 721 \| batter hand splits 140 \| pitcher HR splits 49 \| batter pitch-type 604 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 203 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	+107	-128	1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	3:06 PM	-193	+159	-1.5 (-110)	1.5 (-110)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	3:46 PM	-124	+103	-1.5 (+137)	1.5 (-166)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	4:11 PM	+142	-172	1.5 (-153)	-1.5 (+127)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	-112	-108	-1.5 (+149)	1.5 (-181)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+137	-167	1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+104	-126	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	+177	-217	1.5 (-110)	-1.5 (-110)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+203	-251	1.5 (-102)	-1.5 (-118)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+103	-125	1.5 (-204)	-1.5 (+167)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-115	-105	-1.5 (+144)	1.5 (-175)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+238	-299	1.5 (+108)	-1.5 (-130)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 30 Grade B | 60 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Hunter Brown Over	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	4.5	6.2	-146	FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 \| best price	36.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (4 play(s))

K Prop - Jake Bennett Over

Projection: 7.0Displayed: Over 5.5 +128Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.5Recommended: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.5

Pitcher Earned Runs - Cristopher Sanchez Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Outs - Keider Montero Under

Projection: 15.6Displayed: Under 17.5 -132Market line: majority 16.5 | avg 16.79Recommended: DK Under 17.5 -132 | exactOwn-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 16.79 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Selected line 17.5 is split from majority 16.5 / avg 16.79

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Will Warren Under

Projection: 5.3Displayed: Under 5.5 -166Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 5Recommended: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Hunter Brown Over 4.5 (-146) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+118	-
BetRivers	4.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-146	+115	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 36.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.66K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hunter Brown: K/9 9.7, proj 6.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 26.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 36 PA | K% 36.1% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .114 | OPS .282
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 19.0%, L7 21.3%, season 22.1%, active roster 19.9%/14 hitters, BVP 36.1%/36 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 71%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (30 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Griffin Jax Over 4.5 (+100) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	+100	-128	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 44.4% vs 17% min; cushion +2.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Griffin Jax: K/9 10.3, proj 6.5K over 4.6 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.1% | put-away% 24.5% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 25.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 21 PA | K% 38.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .586
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 21.9%, L7 24.4%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.4%/14 hitters, BVP 38.1%/21 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/30 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 3.37
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +2.63 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (-108) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-114	-114	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-108	-118	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-118	-108	-
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 40.5% vs 17% min; cushion +2.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.9, proj 7.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 144 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .184 | OPS .523
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 144 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 24.2%, L7 25.1%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.5%/14 hitters, BVP 30.6%/144 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.69
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +4.9 ppts (recent 29.1% vs season 24.2%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Janson Junk Under 3.5 (-123) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	3.5	+106	-137	-
BetRivers	3.5	+104	-137	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	-104	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 33.5% vs 17% min; cushion -1.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Janson Junk: K/9 5.6, proj 2.3K over 4.7 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 15.2% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Changeup (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 27.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 37 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .343 | OPS .778
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.5%, L7 18.1%, season 22.5%, active roster 23.8%/14 hitters, BVP 10.8%/37 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 18.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 3.36
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Cody Bradford Under 4.5 (-162) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	4.5	+128	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+126	-162	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 33.3% vs 17% min; cushion -1.50K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.7% / under 58.3%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Cody Bradford: K/9 6.0, proj 3.0K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.3% | put-away% 11.0% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Changeup (20% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 27.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 17 PA | K% 5.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .133 | OPS .377
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.3%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, active roster 23.5%/14 hitters, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 80%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.67 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: K L10: 5/6 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 5.5 (+128) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-175	+134	-
BetRivers	4.5	-165	+123	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-170	+130	-
FanDuel	4.5	-172	+134	-
DK	5.5	+128	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 26.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.17
Jake Bennett: K/9 8.2, proj 7.0K over 5.7 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .263 | OPS .684
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.6%, L7 30.2%, season 25.4%, active roster 27.2%/14 hitters, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 25.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 30.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 27.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.76
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +6.5 ppts (recent 27.0% vs season 20.5%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Robert Stock Under 4.5 (-135) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
BetRivers	4.5	+114	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 23.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Robert Stock: K/9 8.8, proj 3.5K over 4.4 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 12.2% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 18.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Stock: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 18.6%, L7 23.1%, season 21.8%, active roster 24.3%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Miami Marlins 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.57 | Season Avg 3.57
Prop trend: K L10: 5/7 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 105 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Cristopher Sánchez Over 6.5 (-115) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 18.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Cristopher Sánchez: K/9 10.0, proj 7.7K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.2% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .333 | OPS .854
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.1%, L7 23.3%, season 21.7%, active roster 21.6%/14 hitters, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Daniel Lynch IV Under 5.5 (-170) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 34.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.89 over 3.7 IP (WHIP 1.21, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.7 IP (HIGH; season 3.4 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Daniel Lynch IV: 27 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .308 | OPS .910
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.3%, L7 23.5%, season 19.4%, BVP 11.1%/27 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 51/52 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.58 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Johnson Under 5.5 (-150) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 29.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.78 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 11.1%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .200 | OPS 1.300
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.3%, L7 24.9%, season 21.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hunter Brown Under 5.5 (-157) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 12.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 36 PA | K% 36.1% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .114 | OPS .282
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.0%, L7 21.3%, season 22.1%, BVP 36.1%/36 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Bennett Under 5.5 (-165) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -165 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.04, BB% 4.6%)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .263 | OPS .684
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 24.6%, L7 30.2%, season 25.4%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (-123) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.90x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 16 PA | K% 43.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 23.0%, L7 27.0%, season 24.5%, BVP 43.8%/16 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Keider Montero Under 5.5 (-130) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.08, BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 33 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 3.0% | AVG .281 | OPS .678
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.9%, season 20.9%, BVP 21.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 3.97
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Blade Tidwell Over 1.5 (-149) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1392926729477275 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Blade Tidwell: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.198
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.3%, L7 20.9%, season 20.7%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 8.6%, L7 8.0%, season 8.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/14 (21%) | Season 3/14 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Walker Buehler Over 1.5 (-128) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8676424182425027 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.6%, L7 27.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 11.3%, L7 8.1%, season 9.0%, BVP 0.0%/17 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Over 1.5 (-135) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.864330889119519 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .234 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 15.6%, L7 18.1%, season 21.2%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.3%, L7 6.9%, season 9.4%, BVP 5.9%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 14 play(s) (B 14)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Basso Over 0.5 (-185) diff 160.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -185; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+130	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.90 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.08, ERA 3.84)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 2.0 IP/GS; recent 1.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.8 IP; outs market 6.5 outs/2.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Basso: 1 PA | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 16.4%, L7 14.2%, season 19.1% (adj 0.84x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 0.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Lake Bachar Over 0.5 (-135) diff 140.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.2 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 3.11)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 2.3 IP/GS; recent 1.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 2.8 IP; outs market 6.5 outs/2.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Lake Bachar: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .450
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 25.0%, L7 25.7%, season 23.9% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 18/47 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 0.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Zac Gallen Over 1.5 (-135) diff 126.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 126.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.42 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.80, ERA 7.22)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Zac Gallen: 36 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .565
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.3%, L7 16.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 33.3%/36 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/19 (84%) | Season 16/19 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 3.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 10/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Davis Martin Over 1.5 (-152) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
DK	1.5	-152	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.66 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 5.48)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.8%, L7 17.6%, season 24.2% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kade Anderson Over 1.5 (-136) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.21 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 4.91)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Kade Anderson: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.6%, L7 22.9%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/3 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Over 1.5 (-163) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-163	+122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.05 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 3.86)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.6%, L7 27.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Over 1.5 (-162) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+120	-
DK	1.5	-162	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.66 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.04, ERA 3.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 28 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .208 | OPS .696
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.8%, L7 21.8%, season 21.3%, BVP 25.0%/28 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 (-166) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.35 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 2.56, ERA 2.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .333 | OPS .854
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 23.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Brown Under 2.5 (-131) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-101	-131	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.46 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.88, ERA 3.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 36 PA | K% 36.1% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .114 | OPS .282
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.0%, L7 21.3%, season 22.1%, BVP 36.1%/36 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Under 2.5 (-117) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.61 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 3.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.95x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 16 PA | K% 43.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 23.0%, L7 27.0%, season 24.5%, BVP 43.8%/16 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Under 2.5 (-167) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+125	-167	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.10 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 3.41)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 37 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .343 | OPS .778
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 18.1%, season 22.5%, BVP 10.8%/37 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-160) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.47 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.73, ERA 3.74)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.0% / under 57.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 19 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .263 | OPS .684
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 24.6%, L7 30.2%, season 25.4%, BVP 26.3%/19 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Daniel Lynch IV Under 2.5 (-145) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.45 over 3.7 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 4.61)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.7 IP (HIGH; season 3.4 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Daniel Lynch IV: 27 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .308 | OPS .910
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.3%, L7 23.5%, season 19.4%, BVP 11.1%/27 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 48/52 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (-163) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-163	+122	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.41, ERA 4.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 21 PA | K% 38.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .586
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 21.9%, L7 24.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 38.1%/21 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/30 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-163) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (60 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 19 play(s) (B 2 | C 17)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 7.5 (-114) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 7.33 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	7.5	-111	-116	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-120	-
DK	7.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-108	-118	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 23.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 9.9, proj 9.2K over 6.3 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Split-Finger: 43.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 54 PA | K% 37.0% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .184 | OPS .504
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.3%, split 24.5%, L7 25.9%, season 25.4%, active roster 25.3%/14 hitters, BVP 37.0%/54 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/25 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 6.44
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
K% trend: support +6.6 ppts (recent 32.0% vs season 25.4%, proj adj +3.3%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 (+100) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	6.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	6.5	-118	-113	-
DK	6.5	+100	-127	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 18.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.0, proj 7.7K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.2% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .333 | OPS .854
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 19.1%, L7 23.3%, season 21.7%, active roster 21.6%/14 hitters, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Kent Over 3.5 (-118) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	3.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 28.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.99K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jackson Kent: K/9 8.2, proj 4.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.347 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.0%, L7 21.3%, season 21.7%, active roster 23.2%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; San Diego Padres 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 3/5 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 28.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (+123) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+123	-157	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+110	-140	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.3, proj 5.7K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Slider: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 45 PA | K% 28.9% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .325 | OPS 1.028
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.5%, L7 29.4%, season 23.0%, active roster 23.3%/14 hitters, BVP 28.9%/45 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Detroit Tigers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 29.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Over 3.5 (-101) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	-
DK	3.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 25.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.90K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Andre Pallante: K/9 5.7, proj 4.4K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Slider: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 28 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .208 | OPS .696
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 19.8%, L7 21.8%, season 21.3%, active roster 22.5%/14 hitters, BVP 25.0%/28 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 25.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Over 3.5 (-105) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	3.5	-109	-122	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	-
DK	3.5	-105	-122	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 20.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Ryan Johnson: K/9 6.7, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Split-Finger: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .200 | OPS 1.300
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.3%, L7 24.9%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.9%/14 hitters (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Boston Red Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 34%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 24.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.22
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kade Anderson Under 5.5 (-157) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	-
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
BetRivers	5.5	+115	-155	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+123	-157	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+128	-164	-
Fanatics	5.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.97K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Kade Anderson: K/9 7.7, proj 4.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/3 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kade Anderson: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .167 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.6%, L7 22.9%, season 22.7%, active roster 22.9%/14 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 8/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 36%; L7 team K% 22.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Over 3.5 (-170) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 3.83 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-180	+135	-
DK	3.5	-170	+133	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-178	+138	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+124	-161	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.5% / under 40.5%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK LOWER delta -0.40
Walker Buehler: K/9 7.5, proj 4.0K over 5.2 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.2% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Slider (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 21.6%, L7 27.8%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.9%/14 hitters, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 27.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.18
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reynaldo Lopez Over 3.5 (-141) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -141

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-130	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-130	+101	-
DK	3.5	-141	+111	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.2% / under 44.8%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Reynaldo Lopez: K/9 8.8, proj 4.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Slider: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, L7 16.5%, season 18.4%, active roster 16.7%/14 hitters (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.7% (14 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 21.6%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reynaldo López Over 3.5 (-135) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.1% / under 45.9%)
Reynaldo López: K/9 8.8, proj 4.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Slider: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, L7 16.5%, season 18.4%, active roster 16.7%/14 hitters (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.7% (14 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 21.6%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Henderson Over 6.5 (+111) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	6.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+120	-154	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 13.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Logan Henderson: K/9 9.5, proj 7.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.253 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .462
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 20.8%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.3%/14 hitters, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 20.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Will Warren Under 5.5 (-147) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+115	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Will Warren: K/9 8.4, proj 4.9K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 18 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.069
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.9%, L7 26.1%, season 22.9%, active roster 23.2%/13 hitters, BVP 27.8%/18 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 46%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.75
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-102) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-110	-118	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Tomoyuki Sugano: K/9 5.9, proj 3.2K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.1% | put-away% 11.9% | xwOBA 0.389 | top pitch: Split-Finger (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 77 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .319 | OPS .927
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 20.3%, L7 27.9%, season 24.8%, active roster 25.6%/15 hitters, BVP 18.2%/77 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 45%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 27.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.6% (15 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/15 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.16
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Davis Martin Under 4.5 (+104) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +104

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-127	-102	-
DK	4.5	-132	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.7% / under 46.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Davis Martin: K/9 7.4, proj 4.3K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.8%, L7 17.6%, season 24.2%, active roster 23.9%/14 hitters (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Pittsburgh Pirates 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 4.56
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.86 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.0 ppts (recent 15.6% vs season 20.6%, proj adj -2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Rhett Lowder Over 3.5 (-122) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-122	-105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-111	-
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Rhett Lowder: K/9 6.6, proj 3.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.5% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.347 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.3%, L7 22.9%, season 20.6%, active roster 20.2%/14 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.60
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Blade Tidwell Under 4.5 (-113) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-108	-120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	-113	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	-
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Blade Tidwell: K/9 8.2, proj 4.4K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Blade Tidwell: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.198
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.3%, L7 20.9%, season 20.7%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Over 4.5 (+112) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+112	-143	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Shane Baz: K/9 8.3, proj 4.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Curveball: 26.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .234 | OPS .656
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 15.6%, L7 18.1%, season 21.2%, active roster 19.3%/14 hitters, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 70%; high-contact hitters 5; L7 team K% 18.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Keider Montero Over 3.5 (+120) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.17 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	2.5	+280	-525	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+120	-160	-
DK	3.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Keider Montero: K/9 5.7, proj 3.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.1% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.287 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 33 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 3.0% | AVG .281 | OPS .678
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 17.4%, L7 19.9%, season 20.9%, active roster 21.9%/14 hitters, BVP 21.2%/33 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 46%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.31
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Foster Griffin Over 5.5 (-118) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Foster Griffin: K/9 7.5, proj 5.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 16 PA | K% 43.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 23.0%, L7 27.0%, season 24.5%, active roster 26.6%/14 hitters, BVP 43.8%/16 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 25.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 27.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (-107) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	-105	-130	-
Caesars	18.5	-105	-127	-
DK	18.5	-107	-124	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	-102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	18.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 21.887999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 18.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.56 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .333 | OPS .854
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 23.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.9%, L7 7.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 4.4%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 18.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sánchez Over 18.5 (-110) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 21.887999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 18.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.56 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .333 | OPS .854
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 23.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.9%, L7 7.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 4.4%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 18.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 (+113) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 18.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 18.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	18.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	18.5	+117	-157	-
DK	18.5	+113	-150	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+116	-158	-
Fanatics	18.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 21.154 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 54 PA | K% 37.0% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .184 | OPS .504
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 24.5%, L7 25.9%, season 25.4%, BVP 37.0%/54 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 10.6%, L7 9.9%, season 9.5%, BVP 7.4%/54 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.20 | Season Avg 19.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.65 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.65 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Keider Montero Under 17.5 (-132) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 16.79 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 16.5 at 5 books | 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 16.5 -118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	16.5	-113	-118	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	16.5	-112	-118	-
Fanatics	16.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	16.5	-120	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.576 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 16.79 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 33 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 3.0% | AVG .281 | OPS .678
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.9%, season 20.9%, BVP 21.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.1%, L7 9.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 3.0%/33 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.60 | Season Avg 14.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.92 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.92 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Henderson Over 17.5 (-149) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 17.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-185	+130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-140	+111	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-149	+112	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-140	+106	Recommended
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 19.195999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.28 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .462
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 20.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 11.2%, L7 10.9%, season 10.7%, BVP 0.0%/26 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 16.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (-131) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	-108	-124	-
DK	17.5	-101	-131	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.822000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 144 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .184 | OPS .523
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.2%, L7 25.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 30.6%/144 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 11.7%, L7 12.0%, season 10.7%, BVP 5.6%/144 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 (-136) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-136	+103	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.26 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.49, BB% 5.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 77 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .319 | OPS .927
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.3%, L7 27.9%, season 24.8%, BVP 18.2%/77 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 5.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 (-135) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 45 PA | K% 28.9% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .325 | OPS 1.028
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 22.5%, L7 29.4%, season 23.0%, BVP 28.9%/45 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (-113) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-113	-117	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .333 | OPS .854
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 23.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sánchez Over 5.5 (-120) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .333 | OPS .854
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 23.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Rhett Lowder Over 5.5 (-115) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.13 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.52, BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.3%, L7 22.9%, season 20.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Over 5.5 (+116) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .234 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 15.6%, L7 18.1%, season 21.2%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Will Warren Under 5.5 (-166) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	Recommended
DK	5.5	+124	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 18 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.9%, L7 26.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 27.8%/18 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cody Bradford Under 5.5 (-161) Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-165	+115	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 17 PA | K% 5.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .133 | OPS .377
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.83 | Season Avg 6.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/6 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Janson Junk Under 1.5 (-225) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.157847783504096 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.5 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 35.1% / under 64.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 37 PA | K% 10.8% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .343 | OPS .778
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 19.5%, L7 18.1%, season 22.5%, BVP 10.8%/37 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.8%, L7 10.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.4%/37 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 (+114) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.1613093163854211 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 4.9 IP (BB% 5.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 77 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .319 | OPS .927
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.3%, L7 27.9%, season 24.8%, BVP 18.2%/77 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.2%, L7 8.3%, season 9.7%, BVP 6.5%/77 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Reynaldo Lopez Over 1.5 (-121) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7913854893833099 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, L7 16.5%, season 18.4% (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, L7 6.8%, season 8.4% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 8/24 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andre Pallante Over 1.5 (-124) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.733405427069542 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 28 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .208 | OPS .696
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.8%, L7 21.8%, season 21.3%, BVP 25.0%/28 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.6%, L7 9.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 10.7%/28 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robert Stock Over 1.5 (-155) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6626112793150398 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Stock: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.6%, L7 23.1%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.9%, L7 8.0%, season 9.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.86 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/7 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Griffin Jax Under 1.5 (-222) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.340388826515742 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 35.4% / under 64.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 21 PA | K% 38.1% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .250 | OPS .586
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 21.9%, L7 24.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 38.1%/21 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 7.7%, L7 6.4%, season 7.7%, BVP 4.8%/21 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 23/30 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 (-211) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -211 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -211

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -211 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3445278956660294 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 6.0 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.4% / under 63.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.4% | AVG .333 | OPS .854
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.1%, L7 23.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.9%, L7 7.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 4.4%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Foster Griffin Under 1.5 (-145) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.371218644601619 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 16 PA | K% 43.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
Opponent K profile: composite 26.7%, split 23.0%, L7 27.0%, season 24.5%, BVP 43.8%/16 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 7.9%, L7 8.1%, season 9.8%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jackson Kent Under 2.5 (-151) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.371615677182694 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 4.6 IP (BB% 11.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.0%, L7 21.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.7%, L7 10.2%, season 9.3% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/5 (0%) | L20 0/5 (0%) | Season 0/5 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 0/5 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Will Warren Over 1.5 (-109) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5718062341854866 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 18 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.9%, L7 26.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 27.8%/18 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.0%, L7 6.7%, season 8.3%, BVP 11.1%/18 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hunter Brown Over 2.5 (+123) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.598831205532969 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.54 over 5.2 IP (BB% 12.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 36 PA | K% 36.1% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .114 | OPS .282
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.0%, L7 21.3%, season 22.1%, BVP 36.1%/36 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 9.4%, L7 6.4%, season 8.4%, BVP 2.8%/36 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cody Bradford Over 1.5 (+105) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.552659760618873 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 17 PA | K% 5.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .133 | OPS .377
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.0%, L7 9.7%, season 9.0%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.17 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/6 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (-141) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.78 over 6.1 IP (xFIP 3.30, ERA 2.57)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 54 PA | K% 37.0% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .184 | OPS .504
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 24.5%, L7 25.9%, season 25.4%, BVP 37.0%/54 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Under 2.5 (-145) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.04 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 4.13)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 18 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 21.9%, L7 26.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 27.8%/18 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Rhett Lowder Under 3.5 (-161) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+121	-161	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.0 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.44 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 5.69)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.3%, L7 22.9%, season 20.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 (-160) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.18 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 5.33, ERA 3.92)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .200 | OPS 1.300
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.3%, L7 24.9%, season 21.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Stock Under 2.5 (-152) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	-
DK	2.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.98 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 5.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Stock: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.6%, L7 23.1%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.43 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/7 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-112) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.92 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 4.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 144 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .184 | OPS .523
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.2%, L7 25.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 30.6%/144 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Henderson Over 1.5 (-164) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.60 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.28, ERA 2.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .462
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 20.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-167) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-130	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+125	-167	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 3.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.06 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.75, ERA 6.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 77 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .319 | OPS .927
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.3%, L7 27.9%, season 24.8%, BVP 18.2%/77 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.25 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.11, ERA 4.19)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 45 PA | K% 28.9% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .325 | OPS 1.028
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 22.5%, L7 29.4%, season 23.0%, BVP 28.9%/45 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Blade Tidwell Over 2.5 (+109) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	-
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.55 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 4.77)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Blade Tidwell: 18 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.198
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.3%, L7 20.9%, season 20.7%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/14 (14%) | Season 2/14 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Kent Over 2.5 (+108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-125	-
DK	2.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.96 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 5.06)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.0%, L7 21.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/5 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cody Bradford Over 2.5 (-102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.98 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.56, ERA 4.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 17 PA | K% 5.9% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .133 | OPS .377
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.6%, season 23.4%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 (-149) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+112	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 3.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, L7 16.5%, season 18.4% (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/24 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Keider Montero Under 2.5 (-155) Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.61, ERA 4.09)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 33 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 3.0% | AVG .281 | OPS .678
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.9%, season 20.9%, BVP 21.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-135) Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.17 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 4.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.9 outs/5.6 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .234 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 15.6%, L7 18.1%, season 21.2%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	67.8	58.9	81.0	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.253, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros	67.0	70.9	68.0	3	Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	62.4	58.7	72.0	6	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox	61.5	65.2	61.5	6	Slider (39% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kade Anderson	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	60.5	45.8	69.5	4	Curveball (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	58.6	53.3	68.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies	58.5	56.0	62.0	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves	55.9	70.3	43.5	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	55.5	58.1	55.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	55.3	57.3	55.0	4	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Brady Basso	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	50.7	43.2	56.0	7	Curveball (38% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	49.7	36.8	64.0	5	Slider (28% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	48.9	45.7	52.5	5	Curveball (30% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	48.7	41.7	55.0	5	Slider (31% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	48.4	43.9	51.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	47.6	46.4	52.5	5	Slider (38% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	47.3	46.8	48.5	7	Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies	46.0	47.2	44.0	6	Changeup (28% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	45.7	49.2	42.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	45.0	39.0	50.5	7	Slider (24% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	43.6	43.3	44.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	43.6	43.5	43.5	6	Slider (34% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	43.2	49.4	34.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	40.2	43.6	32.5	4	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	40.0	28.4	49.0	6	Changeup (24% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 15.2%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	36.4	36.2	34.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	32.3	29.3	30.0	4	Changeup (20% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 17.3%, put-away 11.0%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zac Gallen	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	26.7	33.0	15.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 12.8%, xwOBA 0.384, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees	25.0	31.7	13.0	7	Split-Finger (30% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Zac Gallen	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	R	13.1%	5.5	5.2	5.2	92	normal	full	15.50	84.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brady Basso	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	17.6%	1.8	2.0	3.8	30	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	R	21.1%	5.1	5.8	5.7	86	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	L	22.8%	5.6	5.9	5.8	94	normal	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	25.9%	5.5	5.6	5.6	92	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	18.9%	3.8	5.2	4.9	64	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	16.1%	5.3	5.0	5.0	89	normal	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	L	20.3%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees	R	14.6%	4.8	5.3	5.2	80	short	full	13.00	87.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	15.5%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	25.4%	5.5	5.4	5.5	92	normal	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	15.4%	3.7	3.4	4.2	62	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	R	17.7%	5.4	4.9	5.0	91	normal	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	R	27.7%	6.1	6.6	6.5	102	deep	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	15.0%	3.9	5.1	4.9	65	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	R	28.7%	6.6	5.6	6.0	111	deep	full	81.00	19.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	R	19.8%	6.1	5.8	5.9	102	deep	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	20.9%	4.1	4.3	4.7	69	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.3%	4.4	5.1	5.0	74	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros	L	27.1%	6.2	6.2	6.2	104	deep	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox	R	24.1%	1.7	2.3	2.8	28	short	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	R	20.7%	5.6	4.9	5.0	94	normal	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	21.4%	4.9	5.1	5.3	82	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Kade Anderson	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	L	20.1%	4.8	5.0	5.4	80	short	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	R	15.5%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves	R	26.2%	4.7	4.5	4.5	79	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	L	15.4%	5.1	5.1	5.3	86	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	R	30.9%	1.0	1.1	1.8	17	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	L	20.5%	4.7	4.9	5.2	79	short	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.9	3.4	18.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (6 books) \| books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
Cristopher Sánchez	Cristopher Sánchez Over	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.9	3.4	18.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	21.2	2.6	14.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.65 <= 3 min
Keider Montero	Keider Montero Under	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	15.6	-1.9	11.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.92 <= 3 min
Logan Henderson	Logan Henderson Over	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	19.2	1.7	9.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	16.8	-0.7	3.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes