| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 640 | 55% | -29.59u | 42 | 52% | -4.03u | 302 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 545 | 58% | +6.33u | 31 | 61% | +1.16u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 716 | 56% | -35.62u | 83 | 54% | -7.11u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 486 | 62% | +1.40u | 60 | 72% | +8.45u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 135 | 48% | -14.15u | 6 | 50% | -0.45u | 3 | 67% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | 67.8 | 58.9 | 81.0 | 4 | Changeup (37% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.253, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros | 67.0 | 70.9 | 68.0 | 3 | Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds | 62.4 | 58.7 | 72.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (33% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox | 61.5 | 65.2 | 61.5 | 6 | Slider (39% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kade Anderson | Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | 60.5 | 45.8 | 69.5 | 4 | Curveball (38% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | 58.6 | 53.3 | 68.0 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies | 58.5 | 56.0 | 62.0 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves | 55.9 | 70.3 | 43.5 | 6 | Changeup (40% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics | 55.5 | 58.1 | 55.0 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 49% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | 55.3 | 57.3 | 55.0 | 4 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Basso | Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays | 50.7 | 43.2 | 56.0 | 7 | Curveball (38% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | 49.7 | 36.8 | 64.0 | 5 | Slider (28% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians | 48.9 | 45.7 | 52.5 | 5 | Curveball (30% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | 48.7 | 41.7 | 55.0 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Blade Tidwell | San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | 48.4 | 43.9 | 51.5 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 35% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 47.6 | 46.4 | 52.5 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles | 47.3 | 46.8 | 48.5 | 7 | Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies | 46.0 | 47.2 | 44.0 | 6 | Changeup (28% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 45.7 | 49.2 | 42.5 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | 45.0 | 39.0 | 50.5 | 7 | Slider (24% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Stock | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 43.6 | 43.3 | 44.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | 43.6 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jackson Kent | Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres | 43.2 | 49.4 | 34.0 | 5 | Curveball (38% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | 40.2 | 43.6 | 32.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (32% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | 40.0 | 28.4 | 49.0 | 6 | Changeup (24% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 15.2%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 36.4 | 36.2 | 34.0 | 6 | Slider (32% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cody Bradford | Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | 32.3 | 29.3 | 30.0 | 4 | Changeup (20% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 17.3%, put-away 11.0%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals | 26.7 | 33.0 | 15.5 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 12.8%, xwOBA 0.384, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees | 25.0 | 31.7 | 13.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (30% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals | R | 13.1% | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 92 | normal | full | 15.50 | 84.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brady Basso | Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 17.6% | 1.8 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 30 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1% |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 21.1% | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 86 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 22.8% | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 25.9% | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 18.9% | 3.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 64 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.8 IP/start |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 16.1% | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 89 | normal | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 20.3% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees | R | 14.6% | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 13.00 | 87.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | R | 15.5% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 25.4% | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 15.4% | 3.7 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 62 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | R | 17.7% | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 91 | normal | full | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 27.7% | 6.1 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 102 | deep | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | R | 15.0% | 3.9 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 65 | short | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | R | 28.7% | 6.6 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 111 | deep | full | 81.00 | 19.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | R | 19.8% | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 102 | deep | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Robert Stock | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | R | 20.9% | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 69 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies | R | 21.3% | 4.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 74 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros | L | 27.1% | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 104 | deep | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox | R | 24.1% | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 28 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.7 IP/start |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | R | 20.7% | 5.6 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 94 | normal | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Blade Tidwell | San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 21.4% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Kade Anderson | Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | L | 20.1% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 80 | short | full | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | R | 15.5% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves | R | 26.2% | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 79 | short | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Cody Bradford | Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners | L | 15.4% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics | R | 30.9% | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 17 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Jackson Kent | Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres | L | 20.5% | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 79 | short | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 21.9 | 3.4 | 18.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Cristopher Sánchez Over | Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 21.9 | 3.4 | 18.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 18.5 | 21.2 | 2.6 | 14.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.65 <= 3 min |
| Keider Montero | Keider Montero Under | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 15.6 | -1.9 | 11.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.92 <= 3 min |
| Logan Henderson | Logan Henderson Over | Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 9.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | 17.5 | 16.8 | -0.7 | 3.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Hunter Brown Over | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 6.2 | -146 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 | best price | 36.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Griffin Jax Over | RAY@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 6.5 | +100 | DK Over 4.5 +100 | exact | 44.5% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Over | CUB@BRE | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 7.7 | -108 | DK Over 5.5 -108 | exact | 40.5% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Janson Junk Under | MET@MAR | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.3 | -123 | DK Under 3.5 -123 | exact | 33.5% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Cody Bradford Under | RAN@MAR | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.0 | -162 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 33.3% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Jake Bennett Over | ANG@SOX | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 7.0 | +128 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue | 26.5% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 105 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Robert Stock Under | MET@MAR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.5 | -135 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price | 23.1% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Cristopher Sánchez Over | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.7 | -115 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -115 | exact | 18.5% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Daniel Lynch IV Under | DIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 3.6 | -170 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -170 | exact | 34.5% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Johnson Under | ANG@SOX | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 3.9 | -150 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 29.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Hunter Brown Under | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -157 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Jake Bennett Under | ANG@SOX | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -165 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -165 | exact | 23.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Foster Griffin Under | GUA@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -123 | DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Keider Montero Under | TWI@TIG | 1:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -130 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Blade Tidwell Over | CAR@GIA | 3:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -149 | DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact | 42.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Walker Buehler Over | NAT@PAD | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -128 | DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact | 24.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Shane Baz Over | GUA@ORI | 6:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -135 | DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact | 24.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Brady Basso Over | JAY@ATH | 3:06 PM | 0.5 | 1.3 | -185 | Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | best price | 160.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Lake Bachar Over | PIR@SOX | 7:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -135 | BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact | 140.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Zac Gallen Over | DIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 3.4 | -135 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | exact | 126.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Davis Martin Over | PIR@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -152 | DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Kade Anderson Over | RAN@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -136 | DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Over | NAT@PAD | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -163 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 46.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Andre Pallante Over | CAR@GIA | 3:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -162 | DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Under | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.6 | -166 | DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact | 36.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Hunter Brown Under | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -131 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Foster Griffin Under | GUA@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -117 | DK Under 2.5 -117 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Janson Junk Under | MET@MAR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -167 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Bennett Under | ANG@SOX | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -160 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Daniel Lynch IV Under | DIA@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -145 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Jax Over | RAY@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -163 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price | 20.0% | ✓!✓––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | RED@DOD | 10:11 PM | 7.5 | 9.2 | -114 | FanDuel Over 7.5 -108 | best price | 23.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.7 | +100 | BetMGM Over 6.5 +105 | best price | 18.5% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jackson Kent Over | NAT@PAD | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -118 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price | 28.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@TIG | 1:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | +123 | DK Over 4.5 +123 | exact | 26.6% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Andre Pallante Over | CAR@GIA | 3:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -101 | BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 | best price | 25.7% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Over | ANG@SOX | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -105 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +102 | best price | 20.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kade Anderson Under | RAN@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -157 | BetRivers Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 17.7% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Over | NAT@PAD | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -170 | DK Over 3.5 -170 | exact | 14.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Reynaldo Lopez Over | RAY@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -141 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -130 | best price | 14.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Reynaldo López Over | RAY@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -135 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | exact | 14.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Henderson Over | CUB@BRE | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | +111 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +120 | best price | 13.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Will Warren Under | ROC@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -147 | DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | ROC@YAN | 7:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -102 | BetMGM Under 3.5 +105 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Davis Martin Under | PIR@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | +104 | DK Under 4.5 +104 | exact | 5.3% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Rhett Lowder Over | RED@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -122 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Blade Tidwell Under | CAR@GIA | 3:46 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -113 | DK Under 4.5 -113 | exact | 1.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Baz Over | GUA@ORI | 6:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +112 | DK Over 4.5 +112 | exact | 1.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Keider Montero Over | TWI@TIG | 1:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | +120 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -160 | alt rescue | 0.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Over | GUA@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -118 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price | 0.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 21.9 | -107 | FanDuel Over 18.5 -102 | best price | 18.3% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sánchez Over | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 21.9 | -110 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 -110 | exact | 18.3% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.65 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | RED@DOD | 10:11 PM | 18.5 | 21.2 | +113 | BetMGM Over 18.5 +125 | best price | 14.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.92 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Keider Montero Under | TWI@TIG | 1:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.6 | -132 | DK Under 17.5 -132 | exact | 11.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Henderson Over | CUB@BRE | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -149 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -140 | best price | 9.7% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kevin Gausman Under | CUB@BRE | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.8 | -131 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price | 3.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tomoyuki Sugano Over | ROC@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -136 | Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zebby Matthews Under | TWI@TIG | 1:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -135 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -135 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sanchez Over | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -113 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sánchez Over | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -120 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -120 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Rhett Lowder Over | RED@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -115 | DK Over 5.5 -115 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Over | GUA@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +116 | DK Over 5.5 +116 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Will Warren Under | ROC@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -166 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cody Bradford Under | RAN@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -161 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Janson Junk Under | MET@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -225 | DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact | 22.8% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | ROC@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | +114 | DK Under 1.5 +114 | exact | 22.6% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Reynaldo Lopez Over | RAY@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -121 | DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact | 19.4% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Andre Pallante Over | CAR@GIA | 3:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -124 | DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact | 15.6% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Robert Stock Over | MET@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 10.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Griffin Jax Under | RAY@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -222 | DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact | 10.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cristopher Sanchez Under | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -211 | DK Under 1.5 -211 | exact | 10.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Foster Griffin Under | GUA@ORI | 6:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -145 | DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact | 8.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jackson Kent Under | NAT@PAD | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -151 | DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Will Warren Over | ROC@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -109 | DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact | 4.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Hunter Brown Over | AST@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +123 | DK Over 2.5 +123 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cody Bradford Over | RAN@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 3.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | RED@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -141 | DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Will Warren Under | ROC@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -161 | Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | best price | 14.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Over | ANG@SOX | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -160 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -160 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Stock Under | MET@MAR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -152 | DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kevin Gausman Under | CUB@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -112 | DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Henderson Over | CUB@BRE | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -164 | DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | ROC@YAN | 7:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -167 | Fanatics Under 3.5 -130 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@TIG | 1:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -115 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Blade Tidwell Over | CAR@GIA | 3:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +109 | DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jackson Kent Over | NAT@PAD | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +108 | DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cody Bradford Over | RAN@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -102 | DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Reynaldo Lopez Under | RAY@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -149 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Keider Montero Under | TWI@TIG | 1:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -155 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Under | GUA@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -135 | DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context