MLB Bets 2026-09-08

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	124W–86L–0P	59%	-3.17 u	Last 14 days • 210 settled
Grade A	12W–7L–0P	63%	+1.08 u
Grade B	112W–79L–0P	59%	-4.24 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3853W–2428L–8P	61%	-269.99 u	All-time • 6289 settled
Grade A	279W–220L–0P	56%	-12.34 u
Grade B	3572W–2199L–8P	62%	-251.21 u

97 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Brandon Young	3.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	3.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Jack Perkins	3.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Landen Roupp	5.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Reid Detmers	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryce Miller	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Corbin Burnes	1.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Landen Roupp	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Nick Lodolo	2.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Patrick Sandoval	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Reid Detmers	2.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Sean Manaea	2.5	-107	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Dean Kremer	5.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hayden Wesneski	5.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Gabriel Hughes	1.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Hayden Wesneski	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Sean Burke	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	635	55%	-27.88u	37	54%	-2.32u	298	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	543	57%	+5.12u	29	59%	-0.04u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	708	56%	-37.65u	75	52%	-9.15u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	483	62%	+2.61u	57	74%	+9.65u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	135	48%	-14.15u	6	50%	-0.45u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 635, 14d N 37	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 543, 14d N 29	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 27/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 851 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 235 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 818 pitcher(s), 3639 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 602 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 421 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1394 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 421 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Athletics, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 365 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 14 line(s)/7 game(s); Earned Runs 28 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 122, bovada_direct 3, fanatics 3, betrivers 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 378 market side(s) checked \| 378 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 654 \| batter bats 722 \| batter hand splits 140 \| pitcher HR splits 48 \| batter pitch-type 602 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 203 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+119	-143	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+120	-145	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-184)	-1.5 (+152)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	+120	-145	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+279	-358	1.5 (+128)	-1.5 (-155)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-103	-117	-1.5 (+163)	1.5 (-199)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	7:40 PM	-120	-101	-1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+179	-219	1.5 (-122)	-1.5 (+101)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+123	-149	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-187	+153	-1.5 (-115)	1.5 (-105)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+158	-193	1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-182)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-108	-111	-1.5 (+154)	1.5 (-188)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+266	-339	1.5 (+120)	-1.5 (-144)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

4 Grade A | 14 Grade B | 74 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -142, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski Over	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	3.5	5.9	-142	BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 \| best price	67.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch	K Prop	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	5.5	7.6	-149	BetRivers Over 5.5 -129 \| best price	38.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	3.5	4.8	-128	BetMGM Over 3.5 -120 \| best price	37.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.071/AVG 0.429 over 8 PA, pitch-type…	K Prop	Jack Perkins Over	JAY@ATH	9:41 PM	3.5	4.7	-143	DK Over 3.5 -143 \| exact	35.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Landen Roupp Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Dean Kremer Under

Projection: 4.6Displayed: Under 5.5 -166Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 5Recommended: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 (-142) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	3.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-142	+111	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-150	+118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 67.9% vs 17% min; cushion +2.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 8.0, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.2% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Sweeper (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 58 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .200 | OPS .693
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 58 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.0%, L7 20.2%, season 22.1%, active roster 20.0%/14 hitters, BVP 24.1%/58 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 81%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/7 (100%) | L20 7/7 (100%) | Season 7/7 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.71 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 7/7 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -142, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 5.5 (-149) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-145	+111	-
BetRivers	5.5	-129	-104	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+110	-
DK	5.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-140	+110	-
Fanatics	5.5	-145	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 38.8% vs 17% min; cushion +2.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Reid Detmers: K/9 9.6, proj 7.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 60 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .302 | OPS .828
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.7%/14 hitters, BVP 31.7%/60 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Boston Red Sox 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 34%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Brandon Young Over 3.5 (-128) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-120	-110	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+104	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	-
Fanatics	3.5	-145	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 37.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Brandon Young: K/9 7.0, proj 4.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .231 | OPS .872
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 15.2%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, active roster 19.3%/14 hitters, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 5; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/24 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.58
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 3.5 (-143) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+116	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-143	+112	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 35.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Jack Perkins: K/9 10.5, proj 4.7K over 4.6 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 18.4%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1%, active roster 19.6%/14 hitters (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/33 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 3.52
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.071/AVG 0.429 over 8 PA, pitch-type boost on 18% usage pitch, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash -- A risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (14 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Landen Roupp Under 5.5 (-161) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -161

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 4.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-175	+134	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450	-
DK	5.5	+126	-161	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+130	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.4% vs 17% min; cushion -1.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
Landen Roupp: K/9 7.6, proj 4.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 25.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.548
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.4%, L7 22.9%, season 20.8%, active roster 21.8%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.5 ppts (recent 14.8% vs season 22.3%, proj adj -3.8%)

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hayden Wesneski Under 5.5 (-167) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+125	-167	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.10, BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 58 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .200 | OPS .693
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.0%, L7 20.2%, season 22.1%, BVP 24.1%/58 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/7 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dean Kremer Under 5.5 (-166) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-155	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	Recommended
DK	5.5	+124	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 145 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .331 | OPS .996
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 22.4%, L7 29.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 17.9%/145 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Sean Burke Over 1.5 (-126) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0916075235062475 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.8%, L7 22.6%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 10.5%, L7 10.5%, season 9.2% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (-135) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.019712288798541 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 58 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .200 | OPS .693
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.0%, L7 20.2%, season 22.1%, BVP 24.1%/58 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.5%, L7 7.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 8.6%/58 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/7 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Gabriel Hughes Over 1.5 (-195) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 61.9% / Under 38.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.88245044847668 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.9% / under 38.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 20.4%, L7 24.5%, season 24.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.3%, L7 9.4%, season 9.7% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-195) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Patrick Sandoval Over 1.5 (-147) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.84 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 4.78)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 22.5%, L7 29.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Over 1.5 (-170) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.15 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 5.42)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, L7 18.5%, season 22.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Corbin Burnes Over 1.5 (-132) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Corbin Burnes: 74 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .528
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 22.3%, L7 16.3%, season 20.7%, BVP 18.9%/74 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Over 1.5 (-156) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-156	+117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.548
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.4%, L7 22.9%, season 20.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Over 1.5 (-164) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.97 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.9 outs/5.3 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.5%, L7 26.9%, season 21.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-172) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.89 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.43, ERA 2.53)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 60 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .302 | OPS .828
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 31.7%/60 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Lodolo Over 2.5 (-156) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.76 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 5.59)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 74 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.0%, L7 22.2%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.0%/74 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Manaea Over 2.5 (-107) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.83 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.29, ERA 5.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 31 PA | K% 12.9% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .233 | OPS .625
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.9%/31 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/29 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (74 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 7 | C 17)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 (-112) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-110	-118	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 27.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Freddy Peralta: K/9 8.2, proj 5.8K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 159 PA | K% 25.2% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .699
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 159 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 26.9%, season 21.9%, active roster 23.5%/14 hitters, BVP 25.2%/159 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (+117) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 8.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 8.33 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 5 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 8.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	8.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	8.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	+115	-150	-
DK	8.5	+117	-149	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	8.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.0K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 18.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 12.2, proj 10.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 37.5% | put-away% 31.1% | xwOBA 0.224 | top pitch: Curveball (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 118 PA | K% 33.1% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .181 | OPS .576
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 118 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters, BVP 33.1%/118 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.10 | Season Avg 8.73
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 8.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
K% trend: headwind -9.7 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 38.3%, proj adj -4.9%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Nick Lodolo Over 3.5 (-166) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -166 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -166 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-175	+134	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-166	+129	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-166	+130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.5, proj 4.1K over 4.8 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.382 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 74 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .759
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.0%, L7 22.2%, season 20.6%, active roster 20.3%/14 hitters, BVP 23.0%/74 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.06
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 4.5 (-128) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+104	-
BetRivers	4.5	-125	-106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.66K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Andrew Painter: K/9 8.0, proj 5.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.9%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7%, active roster 21.6%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
K% trend: support +3.9 ppts (recent 23.9% vs season 20.0%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 (-144) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-143	+110	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	-148	+112	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	-144	+113	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-146	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.7% / under 44.3%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Patrick Sandoval: K/9 9.0, proj 6.2K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 24.4% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .644
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 22.5%, L7 29.2%, season 25.3%, active roster 27.5%/14 hitters, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 25.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 29.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 27.5% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Drew Anderson Over 4.5 (-148) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-141	+108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.50K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Drew Anderson: K/9 9.5, proj 5.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.2% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 46 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .154 | OPS .513
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 17.4%, L7 19.3%, season 21.0%, active roster 21.8%/14 hitters, BVP 21.7%/46 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 46%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 6/46 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Under 4.5 (-107) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-114	-114	-
BetRivers	4.5	-105	-127	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-119	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.39K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 5.6, proj 4.1K over 6.4 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 27.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 176 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, active roster 23.9%/14 hitters, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.73
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.2 ppts (recent 10.4% vs season 17.6%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Corbin Burnes (ARIZ) Over 3.5 (+130) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 35.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, active roster 20.6%/14 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (14 hitters)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (-109) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-120	-108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-109	-116	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.3% / under 50.7%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Dean Kremer: K/9 9.0, proj 5.5K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 145 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .331 | OPS .996
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 145 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 22.4%, L7 29.2%, season 23.0%, active roster 23.4%/14 hitters, BVP 17.9%/145 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Detroit Tigers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 29.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — AJ Smith-Shawver Under 3.5 (+122) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 3.25 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	-
BetOnline	3.5	-154	+119	-
DK	3.5	-156	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 19.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
AJ Smith-Shawver: K/9 8.2, proj 2.8K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 13.5% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Split-Finger (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Split-Finger: 18.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.90x)
BVP (active roster) vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .529 | OPS 1.356
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 15.5%, L7 15.9%, season 18.4%, active roster 18.0%/14 hitters, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 15.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.75 | Season Avg 3.75
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.90) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Corbin Burnes Over 3.5 (+142) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 2.5 -174 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +142

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 3.25 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 2.5 -174 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 3.5 +310; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	2.5	-174	+136	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+139	-182	-
BetRivers	3.5	+310	-480	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+142	-182	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 18.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.66K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 39.0% / under 61.0%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
BVP (active roster) vs Corbin Burnes: 74 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .528
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 22.3%, L7 16.3%, season 20.7%, active roster 21.2%/14 hitters, BVP 18.9%/74 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 (-120) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 8.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 8.33 | selected line 8.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 5 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 8.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	8.5	-112	-115	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-110	-120	-
DK	8.5	-120	-106	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-108	-118	Recommended
Fanatics	8.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 9.8K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 15.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Tarik Skubal: K/9 11.0, proj 9.8K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.0% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 34.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .458
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.4%, active roster 25.2%/14 hitters, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; L7 team K% 26.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.23
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 8.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Burke Under 6.5 (-130) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.21 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-185	+141	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
BetRivers	6.5	+120	-162	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	Recommended
DK	6.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 11.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.76K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Sean Burke: K/9 9.2, proj 5.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.8%, L7 22.6%, season 24.4%, active roster 24.2%/14 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Pittsburgh Pirates 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.96
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5
K% trend: headwind -5.4 ppts (recent 20.9% vs season 26.3%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Under 5.5 (-137) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
BetRivers	5.5	+120	-162	-
DK	5.5	+108	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.4% / under 54.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Sean Manaea: K/9 8.4, proj 4.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 31 PA | K% 12.9% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .233 | OPS .625
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, active roster 24.1%/14 hitters, BVP 12.9%/31 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Miami Marlins 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 24.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.21
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.19 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Quinn Mathews Under 5.5 (-146) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+114	-146	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Quinn Mathews: K/9 8.7, proj 4.9K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.1%, L7 21.3%, season 21.3%, active roster 22.7%/13 hitters (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; San Francisco Giants 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 3/5 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (+128) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 3.5 +290; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	+290	-435	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	-
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+128	-164	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+130	-166	-
Fanatics	4.5	+130	-170	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.36K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.8, proj 4.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 90 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, active roster 20.6%/14 hitters, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 24.4% vs season 20.1%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-156) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Tanner Bibee: K/9 7.1, proj 5.2K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 61 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .886
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.8%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5%, active roster 26.6%/14 hitters, BVP 19.7%/61 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 25.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; L7 team K% 27.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.55
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 4.5 (-153) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+119	-153	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.0% / under 57.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
David Peterson: K/9 9.1, proj 4.3K over 4.7 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 97 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 97 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.6%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.4%/14 hitters, BVP 18.6%/97 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.04
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
K% trend: support +4.8 ppts (recent 24.3% vs season 19.5%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Casey Mize Over 4.5 (-103) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-115	-112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-103	-124	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Casey Mize: K/9 7.0, proj 4.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.9 outs/5.3 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Split-Finger (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Split-Finger: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.5%, L7 26.9%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.7%/14 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 4.55
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.35 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.7 ppts (recent 13.9% vs season 21.6%, proj adj -3.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 4.5 (-148) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: betrivers (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Bryce Miller: K/9 8.4, proj 4.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, L7 18.5%, season 22.6%, active roster 22.8%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (14 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 5.28
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.18 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.3 ppts (recent 18.6% vs season 23.9%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 (+116) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 7.33 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+145	-215	-
BetOnline	7.5	-130	+101	-
BetRivers	7.5	-109	-121	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-125	-105	-
DK	7.5	-148	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	7.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 3.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.1, proj 7.2K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 24.4% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, active roster 23.1%/13 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 46%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.1% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.90 | Season Avg 7.24
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+112) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+112	-142	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.6% / under 55.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jose Soriano: K/9 8.1, proj 5.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 29.9% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Curveball (44% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .616
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.2%, L7 23.4%, season 22.6%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 22%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -1.39 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.0 ppts (recent 17.1% vs season 23.1%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 (+104) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	4.5	+110	-148	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	+104	-132	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	-
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.3% / under 53.7%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Bubba Chandler: K/9 8.1, proj 4.6K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Changeup (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.8%, L7 24.9%, season 23.9%, active roster 24.9%/14 hitters (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 25.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gabriel Hughes Over 3.5 (-168) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -168

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-167	+128	-
BetRivers	3.5	-150	+112	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-168	+131	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-170	+132	-
Fanatics	3.5	-170	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.2% / under 40.8%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Gabriel Hughes: K/9 7.0, proj 3.6K over 4.7 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.9% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 20.4%, L7 24.5%, season 24.7%, active roster 25.5%/15 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 23.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 45%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.5% (15 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/15 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.82
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.5 ppts (recent 12.7% vs season 18.2%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Over 17.5 (-114) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-114	-117	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-118	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.863999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 60 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .302 | OPS .828
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 31.7%/60 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.5%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 (-130) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-136	+102	-
DK	17.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-152	+114	-
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-107	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.793000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +1.0 IP (xFIP 2.25 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +1.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 118 PA | K% 33.1% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .181 | OPS .576
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 33.1%/118 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 11.2%, L7 10.8%, season 10.7%, BVP 11.0%/118 PA (adj 1.15x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 17.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 18.5 (+129) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+130	-170	-
Caesars	18.5	+124	-170	-
DK	18.5	+129	-172	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+136	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.813 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 12.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.86 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 8.1%, L7 6.2%, season 8.3% (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/29 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.31 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.31 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 17.5 (-205) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -205 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -205

Selected market: Over 63.0% / Under 37.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -205 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 17.5 -205; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-220	+155	-
Caesars	17.5	-205	+151	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-205	+153	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-215	+158	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-215	+145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.651 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.64 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.0% / under 37.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .458
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.4%, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 12.2%, L7 10.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 5.6%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 18.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Burke Under 17.5 (-118) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-105	-127	-
DK	17.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	+108	-148	-
Fanatics	17.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 15.354999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.93 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.8%, L7 22.6%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 10.5%, L7 10.5%, season 9.2% (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Over 17.5 (-125) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-124	-107	-
DK	17.5	-125	-106	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	+100	-
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 19.453999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 10.2%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.6%/90 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (+101) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	18.5	+100	-135	-
DK	18.5	+101	-134	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.086999999999996 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 6.7%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.8%/176 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.50 | Season Avg 19.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Under 17.5 (-111) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-120	-111	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-118	-114	-
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-107	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.549999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.45 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .231 | OPS .872
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 15.2%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.1%, L7 5.2%, season 9.4%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (-111) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-119	-111	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.642000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 61 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .886
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.8%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5%, BVP 19.7%/61 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 11.5%, L7 8.1%, season 9.8%, BVP 4.9%/61 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 11/29 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Manaea Under 17.5 (+101) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-132	+100	-
DK	17.5	-135	+101	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.479 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.29 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.6% / under 46.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 31 PA | K% 12.9% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .233 | OPS .625
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.9%/31 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.2%, L7 8.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 3.2%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 13.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +4.82 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Wacha Under 5.5 (-108) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.03, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jose Soriano Under 5.5 (-145) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .616
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.2%, L7 23.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (+124) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 6.2 IP (WHIP 1.21, BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/30 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 6.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (+100) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+100	-132	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 31 PA | K% 12.9% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .233 | OPS .625
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.9%/31 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/29 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 4.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — David Peterson Over 5.5 (+109) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+109	-144	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.27 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.69, BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 97 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.6%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 18.6%/97 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-127) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.28, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 61 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .886
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.8%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5%, BVP 19.7%/61 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 (-116) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.18 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.57, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 74 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.0%, L7 22.2%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.0%/74 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Young Over 5.5 (+111) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .231 | OPS .872
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 15.2%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jack Perkins Over 5.5 (+105) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+105	-140	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.21 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.66, BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 4/33 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 3.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 11 play(s) (C 11)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — AJ Smith-Shawver Over 1.5 (+113) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9123599239329736 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .529 | OPS 1.356
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.5%, L7 15.9%, season 18.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 8.8%, L7 6.3%, season 8.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/4 (100%) | L10 4/4 (100%) | L20 4/4 (100%) | Season 4/4 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.75 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/4 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Painter Over 1.5 (+111) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8552725919816733 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.9%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.2%, L7 7.5%, season 8.7% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Patrick Sandoval Under 2.5 (-188) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0570473028863856 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 22.5%, L7 29.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 11.8%, L7 5.1%, season 8.2%, BVP 10.0%/20 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-140) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7464360567663382 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 60 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .302 | OPS .828
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 31.7%/60 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.5%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Corbin Burnes Over 1.5 (+179) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +179 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +179

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +179 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.7091803912067054 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 33.6% / under 66.4%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Corbin Burnes: 74 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .528
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 22.3%, L7 16.3%, season 20.7%, BVP 18.9%/74 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.4%, L7 9.5%, season 8.4%, BVP 5.4%/74 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bubba Chandler Over 2.5 (+147) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.80547104916926 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.52 over 4.7 IP (BB% 12.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.9% / under 62.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.8%, L7 24.9%, season 23.9% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 11.1%, L7 13.4%, season 9.5% (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sean Manaea Over 1.5 (+109) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6651452385918337 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 31 PA | K% 12.9% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .233 | OPS .625
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 12.9%/31 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.2%, L7 8.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 3.2%/31 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-165) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.649214737403731 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 159 PA | K% 25.2% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 26.9%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.2%/159 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 7.7%, L7 6.3%, season 7.7%, BVP 6.9%/159 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sandy Alcantara Over 1.5 (-150) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6123773745303775 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 6.2 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 6.7%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.8%/176 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 13/30 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Wacha Over 1.5 (-107) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5838196606615138 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 6.0 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.4% / under 51.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 10.2%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.6%/90 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cam Schlittler Over 1.5 (+122) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.506009127095969 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 8.1%, L7 6.2%, season 8.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 20 play(s) (C 20)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Anderson Over 1.5 (-145) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.58 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.73, ERA 3.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 46 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .154 | OPS .513
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.3%, season 21.0%, BVP 21.7%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 10/46 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-166) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.62 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 3.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.8%, L7 22.6%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-160) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.99 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 2.25, ERA 2.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 118 PA | K% 33.1% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .181 | OPS .576
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 33.1%/118 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Under 2.5 (-135) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 3.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 58 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .200 | OPS .693
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.0%, L7 20.2%, season 22.1%, BVP 24.1%/58 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/7 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Quinn Mathews Under 2.5 (-169) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 4.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.1%, L7 21.3%, season 21.3% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/5 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (-144) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.46 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 4.43)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 61 PA | K% 19.7% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .886
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.8%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5%, BVP 19.7%/61 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (+125) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 3.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/30 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-152) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.96 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 4.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .616
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.2%, L7 23.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (-110) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.24 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.86, ERA 1.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (+114) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+114	-151	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 4.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.9%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — AJ Smith-Shawver Over 2.5 (+115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.94 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 5.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.08x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .529 | OPS 1.356
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.5%, L7 15.9%, season 18.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/4 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-166) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.29, ERA 4.41)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 159 PA | K% 25.2% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.0%, L7 26.9%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.2%/159 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Wacha Over 2.5 (-136) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-136	+102	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — David Peterson Under 2.5 (-135) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 2.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+102	-135	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.81 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.07, ERA 5.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 97 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.6%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 18.6%/97 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Under 2.5 (-141) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.49 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.76, ERA 4.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.8%, L7 24.9%, season 23.9% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Under 2.5 (+100) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.84 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 5.86)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 19/33 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Under 2.5 (-132) Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.45, ERA 3.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .231 | OPS .872
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 15.2%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 2.5 (-125) Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.73 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 5.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 145 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .331 | OPS .996
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 22.4%, L7 29.2%, season 23.0%, BVP 17.9%/145 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gabriel Hughes Under 2.5 (+107) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.05 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.46, ERA 6.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 20.4%, L7 24.5%, season 24.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 (-114) Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.49 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.64, ERA 2.93)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .458
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.4%, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	87.2	89.8	95.5	5	Curveball (45% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 37.5%, put-away 31.1%, xwOBA 0.224, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	68.4	69.3	73.0	5	Changeup (47% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies	66.7	65.5	73.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	63.3	63.2	67.5	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	59.0	50.4	66.0	5	Changeup (42% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Riley Cornelio	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	58.8	64.4	50.5	3	Slider (51% whiff, 51% usage)	Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	57.3	60.3	55.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	56.6	50.1	63.5	5	Split-Finger (30% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	56.1	58.6	52.5	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	55.4	54.2	59.5	6	Slider (34% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies	55.2	55.4	56.5	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves	54.6	54.4	55.0	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	53.2	49.5	58.0	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	52.6	62.4	45.0	5	Curveball (44% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	50.6	42.7	59.5	7	Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	50.0	46.3	55.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees	49.2	37.5	59.5	6	Curveball (32% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros	49.1	49.2	47.5	7	Slider (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	48.7	55.2	43.0	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	48.0	48.3	48.0	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	47.8	47.9	47.5	5	Slider (41% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox	47.6	43.6	51.0	6	Changeup (25% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	46.5	59.0	32.5	6	Changeup (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
AJ Smith-Shawver	Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays	46.4	43.5	47.5	5	Split-Finger (37% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	43.0	46.3	37.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	42.8	46.2	37.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	32.7	43.2	16.5	4	Curveball (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Corbin Burnes	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Corbin Burnes	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	24.8%	4.2	4.5	4.5	70	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
AJ Smith-Shawver	Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	20.2%	4.3	4.4	5.0	72	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	R	18.2%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	L	21.9%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	21.2%	4.1	5.0	4.8	69	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	24.4%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	18.1%	4.4	5.0	4.9	74	short	full	16.50	83.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.7%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees	R	17.2%	4.4	4.9	4.8	74	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	24.4%	4.7	4.4	4.7	79	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	22.1%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.6%	6.4	6.3	6.3	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	L	27.4%	6.6	5.8	6.0	111	deep	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	30.4%	5.8	6.0	6.0	97	normal	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	15.1%	6.4	6.5	6.5	107	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	R	34.9%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	95.50	4.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	R	23.6%	5.0	5.1	5.1	84	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	L	21.2%	5.9	5.7	5.7	99	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies	R	31.4%	6.3	5.9	6.0	106	deep	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros	R	21.3%	6.0	5.0	5.2	101	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox	R	20.9%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	R	18.9%	4.6	5.2	5.0	77	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.7%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	L	21.9%	4.8	4.9	5.2	80	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.6%	5.8	5.2	5.3	97	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	R	21.0%	5.5	5.6	5.6	92	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Riley Cornelio	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	R	23.6%	1.7	-	4.9	28	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	19.9	2.4	13.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	19.8	2.3	13.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	18.5	20.8	2.3	12.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.31 <= 3 min
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	19.7	2.1	12.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	15.4	-2.1	12.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	19.5	1.9	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.5	-0.9	5.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.6	-0.9	4.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Manaea	Sean Manaea Under	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	17.5	17.5	-0.0	0.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes