MLB Full Audit Tuesday, September 08 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	635	55%	-27.88u	37	54%	-2.32u	298	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	543	57%	+5.12u	29	59%	-0.04u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	708	56%	-37.65u	75	52%	-9.15u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	483	62%	+2.61u	57	74%	+9.65u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	135	48%	-14.15u	6	50%	-0.45u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	87.2	89.8	95.5	5	Curveball (45% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 37.5%, put-away 31.1%, xwOBA 0.224, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	68.4	69.3	73.0	5	Changeup (47% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies	66.7	65.5	73.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	63.3	63.2	67.5	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	59.0	50.4	66.0	5	Changeup (42% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Riley Cornelio	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	58.8	64.4	50.5	3	Slider (51% whiff, 51% usage)	Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	57.3	60.3	55.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	56.6	50.1	63.5	5	Split-Finger (30% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	56.1	58.6	52.5	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	55.4	54.2	59.5	6	Slider (34% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies	55.2	55.4	56.5	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves	54.6	54.4	55.0	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	53.2	49.5	58.0	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	52.6	62.4	45.0	5	Curveball (44% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	50.6	42.7	59.5	7	Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	50.0	46.3	55.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees	49.2	37.5	59.5	6	Curveball (32% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros	49.1	49.2	47.5	7	Slider (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	48.7	55.2	43.0	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	48.0	48.3	48.0	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	47.8	47.9	47.5	5	Slider (41% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox	47.6	43.6	51.0	6	Changeup (25% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	46.5	59.0	32.5	6	Changeup (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
AJ Smith-Shawver	Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays	46.4	43.5	47.5	5	Split-Finger (37% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	43.0	46.3	37.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	42.8	46.2	37.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	32.7	43.2	16.5	4	Curveball (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Corbin Burnes	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Corbin Burnes	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	24.8%	4.2	4.5	4.5	70	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
AJ Smith-Shawver	Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	20.2%	4.3	4.4	5.0	72	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	R	18.2%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	L	21.9%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	21.2%	4.1	5.0	4.8	69	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	24.4%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	18.1%	4.4	5.0	4.9	74	short	full	16.50	83.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.7%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees	R	17.2%	4.4	4.9	4.8	74	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	24.4%	4.7	4.4	4.7	79	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	22.1%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.6%	6.4	6.3	6.3	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	L	27.4%	6.6	5.8	6.0	111	deep	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	30.4%	5.8	6.0	6.0	97	normal	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	15.1%	6.4	6.5	6.5	107	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	R	34.9%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	95.50	4.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	R	23.6%	5.0	5.1	5.1	84	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	L	21.2%	5.9	5.7	5.7	99	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies	R	31.4%	6.3	5.9	6.0	106	deep	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros	R	21.3%	6.0	5.0	5.2	101	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox	R	20.9%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	R	18.9%	4.6	5.2	5.0	77	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.7%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	L	21.9%	4.8	4.9	5.2	80	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.6%	5.8	5.2	5.3	97	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	R	21.0%	5.5	5.6	5.6	92	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Riley Cornelio	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	R	23.6%	1.7	-	4.9	28	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	19.9	2.4	13.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	19.8	2.3	13.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	18.5	20.8	2.3	12.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.31 <= 3 min
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	19.7	2.1	12.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	15.4	-2.1	12.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	19.5	1.9	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.5	-0.9	5.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.6	-0.9	4.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Manaea	Sean Manaea Under	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	17.5	17.5	-0.0	0.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

92 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
► Best Signals
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -142, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski Over	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	3.5	5.9	-142	BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 \| best price	67.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch	K Prop	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	5.5	7.6	-149	BetRivers Over 5.5 -129 \| best price	38.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	3.5	4.8	-128	BetMGM Over 3.5 -120 \| best price	37.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.071/AVG 0.429 over 8 PA, pitch-type…	K Prop	Jack Perkins Over	JAY@ATH	9:41 PM	3.5	4.7	-143	DK Over 3.5 -143 \| exact	35.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
► Add Signals
B	🔬 Research Only Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	K Prop	Landen Roupp Under	CAR@GIA	9:46 PM	5.5	4.4	-161	DK Under 5.5 -161 \| exact	19.4%	✓✓!✓––	Add Signal
B	✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Hits All	Hayden Wesneski Under	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	5.5	4.0	-167	Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 \| best price	27.3%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Hits All	Dean Kremer Under	TWI@TIG	6:41 PM	5.5	4.6	-166	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 \| best price	16.4%	✓✓✓–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Sean Burke Over	PIR@SOX	7:41 PM	1.5	2.1	-126	DK Over 1.5 -126 \| exact	39.4%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal	Pitcher Walks	Hayden Wesneski Over	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	2.0	-135	DK Over 1.5 -135 \| exact	34.6%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Walks	Gabriel Hughes Over	ROC@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.9	-195	DK Over 1.5 -195 \| exact	25.5%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal	Pitcher Earned R	Patrick Sandoval Over	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	1.5	2.4	-147	DK Over 1.5 -147 \| exact	60.0%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fresh (0.95x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.07x)	Pitcher Earned R	Bryce Miller Over	RAN@MAR	9:41 PM	1.5	2.4	-170	Fanatics Over 1.5 -170 \| exact	60.0%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Corbin Burnes Over	DIA@ROY	7:40 PM	1.5	2.2	-132	DK Over 1.5 -132 \| exact	46.7%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Landen Roupp Over	CAR@GIA	9:46 PM	1.5	2.2	-156	DK Over 1.5 -156 \| exact	46.7%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Casey Mize Over	NAT@PAD	9:41 PM	1.5	2.1	-164	DK Over 1.5 -164 \| exact	40.0%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Reid Detmers Under	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	2.5	1.9	-172	DK Under 2.5 -172 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Nick Lodolo Over	RED@DOD	10:11 PM	2.5	3.1	-156	DK Over 2.5 -156 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal	Pitcher Earned R	Sean Manaea Over	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	2.5	3.0	-107	DK Over 2.5 -107 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
► Lean Signals (Derisked)
B (Weak)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) \| consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C	K Prop	Freddy Peralta Over	RAY@BRA	7:16 PM	4.5	5.8	-112	BetOnline Over 4.5 -110 \| best price	27.8%	✓✓✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
B (Weak)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.4% (6 books) \| books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski Over	CUB@BRE	7:41 PM	8.5	10.1	+117	DK Over 8.5 +117 \| exact	18.2%	✓✓✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)	K Prop	Corbin Burnes (ARIZ) Over	DIA@ROY	7:40 PM	3.5	4.7	+130	Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +130 \| exact	35.0%	✓✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (6 books) \| consensus 60% (6 books)	K Prop	Dean Kremer Over	TWI@TIG	6:41 PM	4.5	5.5	-109	DK Over 4.5 -109 \| exact	22.9%	✓✓✗!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	AJ Smith-Shawver Under	RAY@BRA	7:16 PM	3.5	2.8	+122	DK Under 3.5 +122 \| exact	19.4%	✓✗✗!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Corbin Burnes Over	DIA@ROY	7:40 PM	3.5	4.2	+142	FanDuel Over 2.5 -174 \| alt rescue	18.9%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Tarik Skubal Over	RED@DOD	10:11 PM	8.5	9.8	-120	FanDuel Over 8.5 -108 \| best price	15.2%	✓✗✗!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Burke Under	PIR@SOX	7:41 PM	6.5	5.7	-130	Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -125 \| best price	11.7%	✓✗!!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Manaea Under	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	5.5	4.9	-137	DK Under 5.5 -137 \| exact	11.4%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Quinn Mathews Under	CAR@GIA	9:46 PM	5.5	4.9	-146	Fanatics Under 5.5 -145 \| best price	10.7%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael Wacha Over	DIA@ROY	7:40 PM	4.5	4.9	+128	Fanatics Over 4.5 +130 \| best price	8.0%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Tanner Bibee Under	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	5.5	5.2	-156	FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 \| best price	5.8%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	David Peterson Under	CUB@BRE	7:41 PM	4.5	4.3	-153	BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 \| best price	4.2%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Casey Mize Over	NAT@PAD	9:41 PM	4.5	4.7	-103	DK Over 4.5 -103 \| exact	3.8%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Bryce Miller Over	RAN@MAR	9:41 PM	4.5	4.7	-148	BetRivers Over 4.5 -148 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Cam Schlittler Under	ROC@YAN	7:06 PM	7.5	7.2	+116	DK Under 7.5 +116 \| exact	3.5%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jose Soriano Over	JAY@ATH	9:41 PM	5.5	5.7	+112	FanDuel Over 5.5 +114 \| best price	3.4%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Bubba Chandler Over	PIR@SOX	7:41 PM	4.5	4.7	+104	BetRivers Over 4.5 +110 \| best price	3.3%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Gabriel Hughes Over	ROC@YAN	7:06 PM	3.5	3.6	-168	BetRivers Over 3.5 -150 \| best price	1.6%	✓✗✓!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	17.5	19.9	-114	Caesars Over 17.5 -113 \| best price	13.5%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Jacob Misiorowski Over	CUB@BRE	7:41 PM	17.5	19.8	-130	DK Over 17.5 -130 \| exact	13.1%	✓✗✓––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.31 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Cam Schlittler Over	ROC@YAN	7:06 PM	18.5	20.8	+129	FanDuel Over 18.5 +136 \| best price	12.5%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Tarik Skubal Over	RED@DOD	10:11 PM	17.5	19.7	-205	DK Over 17.5 -205 \| exact	12.3%	✓✗✓––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Sean Burke Under	PIR@SOX	7:41 PM	17.5	15.4	-118	DK Under 17.5 -118 \| exact	12.3%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Michael Wacha Over	DIA@ROY	7:40 PM	17.5	19.5	-125	Fanatics Over 17.5 -120 \| best price	11.2%	✓✗✓––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Sandy Alcantara Over	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	18.5	20.1	+101	FanDuel Over 18.5 +102 \| best price	8.6%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Brandon Young Under	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	17.5	16.5	-111	Caesars Under 17.5 -105 \| best price	5.4%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Tanner Bibee Under	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	17.5	16.6	-111	Caesars Under 17.5 -107 \| best price	4.9%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Sean Manaea Under	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	17.5	17.5	+101	FanDuel Under 17.5 +104 \| best price	0.1%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Michael Wacha Under	DIA@ROY	7:40 PM	5.5	4.9	-108	DK Under 5.5 -108 \| exact	10.9%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Jose Soriano Under	JAY@ATH	9:41 PM	5.5	4.9	-145	DK Under 5.5 -145 \| exact	10.9%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Sandy Alcantara Over	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	5.5	6.0	+124	DK Over 5.5 +124 \| exact	9.1%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Sean Manaea Over	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	5.5	5.8	+100	BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 \| best price	5.5%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	David Peterson Over	CUB@BRE	7:41 PM	5.5	5.8	+109	BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 \| best price	5.5%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Tanner Bibee Under	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	5.5	5.3	-127	DK Under 5.5 -127 \| exact	3.6%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Nick Lodolo Over	RED@DOD	10:11 PM	5.5	5.7	-116	theScore Bet Over 5.5 -115 \| best price	3.6%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Brandon Young Over	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	5.5	5.6	+111	DK Over 5.5 +111 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Jack Perkins Over	JAY@ATH	9:41 PM	5.5	5.6	+105	Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 \| best price	1.8%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)	Pitcher Walks	AJ Smith-Shawver Over	RAY@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	1.9	+113	DK Over 1.5 +113 \| exact	27.5%	✓✓✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Painter Over	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.9	+111	DK Over 1.5 +111 \| exact	23.7%	✓✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Walks	Patrick Sandoval Under	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	2.5	2.1	-188	DK Under 2.5 -188 \| exact	17.7%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Walks	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	1.5	1.7	-140	DK Over 1.5 -140 \| exact	16.4%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)	Pitcher Walks	Corbin Burnes Over	DIA@ROY	7:40 PM	1.5	1.7	+179	DK Over 1.5 +179 \| exact	14.0%	✓!✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)	Pitcher Walks	Bubba Chandler Over	PIR@SOX	7:41 PM	2.5	2.8	+147	DK Over 2.5 +147 \| exact	12.2%	✓!✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Sean Manaea Over	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	1.5	1.7	+109	DK Over 1.5 +109 \| exact	11.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Freddy Peralta Over	RAY@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	1.6	-165	DK Over 1.5 -165 \| exact	10.0%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Sandy Alcantara Over	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-150	DK Over 1.5 -150 \| exact	7.5%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Michael Wacha Over	DIA@ROY	7:40 PM	1.5	1.6	-107	DK Over 1.5 -107 \| exact	5.6%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Cam Schlittler Over	ROC@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.5	+122	DK Over 1.5 +122 \| exact	0.4%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Earned R	Drew Anderson Over	TWI@TIG	6:41 PM	1.5	1.8	-145	DK Over 1.5 -145 \| exact	20.0%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Sean Burke Under	PIR@SOX	7:41 PM	2.5	2.1	-166	DK Under 2.5 -166 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Jacob Misiorowski Under	CUB@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.3	-160	DK Under 1.5 -160 \| exact	13.3%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Earned R	Hayden Wesneski Under	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	2.5	2.2	-135	DK Under 2.5 -135 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Quinn Mathews Under	CAR@GIA	9:46 PM	2.5	2.2	-169	DK Under 2.5 -169 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Tanner Bibee Over	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	2.5	2.7	-144	DK Over 2.5 -144 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Sandy Alcantara Over	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	2.5	2.7	+125	DK Over 2.5 +125 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Jose Soriano Under	JAY@ATH	9:41 PM	2.5	2.3	-152	DK Under 2.5 -152 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Cam Schlittler Under	ROC@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.4	-110	DK Under 1.5 -110 \| exact	6.7%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Andrew Painter Over	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	2.5	2.6	+114	Fanatics Over 2.5 +125 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	AJ Smith-Shawver Over	RAY@BRA	7:16 PM	2.5	2.6	+115	DK Over 2.5 +115 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Freddy Peralta Under	RAY@BRA	7:16 PM	2.5	2.4	-166	DK Under 2.5 -166 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Michael Wacha Over	DIA@ROY	7:40 PM	2.5	2.6	-136	Fanatics Over 2.5 -120 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	David Peterson Under	CUB@BRE	7:41 PM	2.5	2.4	-135	Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Bubba Chandler Under	PIR@SOX	7:41 PM	2.5	2.4	-141	DK Under 2.5 -141 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Jack Perkins Under	JAY@ATH	9:41 PM	2.5	2.4	+100	DK Under 2.5 +100 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Brandon Young Under	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	2.5	2.5	-132	DK Under 2.5 -132 \| exact	-	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Dean Kremer Under	TWI@TIG	6:41 PM	2.5	2.5	-125	DK Under 2.5 -125 \| exact	-	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Gabriel Hughes Under	ROC@YAN	7:06 PM	2.5	2.5	+107	DK Under 2.5 +107 \| exact	-	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Tarik Skubal Under	RED@DOD	10:11 PM	1.5	1.5	-114	DK Under 1.5 -114 \| exact	-	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
► Watch Signals
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Nick Lodolo Over	RED@DOD	10:11 PM	3.5	4.1	-166	FanDuel Over 3.5 -166 \| best price	16.9%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Andrew Painter Over	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	4.5	5.2	-128	BetMGM Over 4.5 -105 \| best price	14.6%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Patrick Sandoval Over	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	5.5	6.2	-144	BetOnline Over 5.5 -143 \| best price	13.4%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Drew Anderson Over	TWI@TIG	6:41 PM	4.5	5.0	-148	FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 \| best price	11.1%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sandy Alcantara Under	MET@MAR	6:41 PM	4.5	4.1	-107	DK Under 4.5 -107 \| exact	8.6%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal