MLB Bets 2026-09-07

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	119W–81L–0P	60%	-0.93 u	Last 14 days • 200 settled
Grade A	12W–8L–0P	60%	+0.08 u
Grade B	107W–73L–0P	59%	-1.01 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3844W–2420L–8P	61%	-267.76 u	All-time • 6272 settled
Grade A	279W–220L–0P	56%	-12.34 u
Grade B	3563W–2191L–8P	62%	-248.98 u

134 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Hits	George Springer	1.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Abimelec Ortiz	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-372	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Alika Williams	0.5	-640	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-338	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Bryan Torres	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Christian Koss	0.5	-479	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Colt Keith	0.5	-422	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-454	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Drew Gilbert	0.5	-251	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-275	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-363	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	John Peck	0.5	-491	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-404	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-260	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Joshua Baez	0.5	-433	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-427	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Kaelen Culpepper	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-361	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Luke Keaschall	0.5	-271	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Max Clark	0.5	-358	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Miguel Rojas	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Myles Straw	0.5	-284	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Nate Furman	0.5	-437	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Nathan Church	0.5	-548	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Nolan Gorman	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Riley Greene	0.5	-288	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Royce Lewis	0.5	-426	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Shay Whitcomb	0.5	-416	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Teoscar Hernandez	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Thomas Saggese	0.5	-530	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Tommy Edman	0.5	-256	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Zach McKinstry	0.5	-376	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	K Prop	Chase Burns	4.5	-116	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	4.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	K Prop	Joe Ryan	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	K Prop	Jonah Tong	4.5	115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Brayan Bello	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Emmet Sheehan	1.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Jonah Tong	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Webb	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Robert Gasser	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Trevor Rogers	1.5	-169	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jacob Lopez	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Cameron	5.5	-106	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Brayan Bello	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Dylan Cease	1.5	-179	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Grant Holmes	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Jake Irvin	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Joe Ryan	0.5	-214	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-198	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Matthew Boyd	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Noah Cameron	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-06	K Prop	Aaron Nola	5.5	-117	-	LOSS	-1.000	Aaron Nola: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-09-06	K Prop	Payton Tolle	6.5	-153	-	WIN	+0.654	Payton Tolle: 12.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	633	55%	-25.88u	38	58%	+0.03u	298	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	541	57%	+5.18u	28	61%	+0.80u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	702	56%	-34.91u	71	52%	-8.40u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	476	62%	+0.03u	50	72%	+7.08u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	135	48%	-14.15u	6	50%	-0.45u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 633, 14d N 38	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 541, 14d N 28	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 21 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 21/21 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 94 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 73 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 73 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 851 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 235 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 818 pitcher(s), 3638 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 602 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 21 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 22 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 14 team(s), 126 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 22 roster team(s), 308 hitter(s) \| 21 SP matchup(s), 869 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 126 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 7 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 22 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago Cubs, Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 22 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 12 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 363 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 5/5 game(s) with pitching props \| K 10 line(s)/5 game(s); Outs 10 line(s)/5 game(s); Hits Allowed 10 line(s)/5 game(s); Walks 10 line(s)/5 game(s); Earned Runs 10 line(s)/5 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 50
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 1072 market side(s) checked \| 1072 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 5 game(s) fetched \| 5 with ML odds \| 5 with total odds \| 1 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 73 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 5 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 1 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 654 \| batter bats 722 \| batter hand splits 141 \| pitcher HR splits 50 \| batter pitch-type 602 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 81 batter(s) scored \| 5 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Public Intel Signal: 1 provider(s) configured -- shadow mode
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel QC: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (48/48 uncached queries used)
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel Radar: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (32/32 uncached queries used)
✓	READY	Available	MLB Intel Radar: Completed -- 5 topic(s) surfaced
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 270 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation ready

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	+101	-122	1.5 (-208)	-1.5 (+170)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	+157	-192	1.5 (-134)	-1.5 (+111)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	+148	-180	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	-206	+169	-1.5 (-122)	1.5 (+101)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

MLB Intel Radar

Shadow-mode public intel briefing; does not change picks or grades

Joe Ryan workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 93%Entities: Joe Ryan

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: pitch count, arm fatigue, scratched, velocity, opener
Intel posture: Opposes
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Projection recheck; review workload-dependent overs

Chase Burns workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 91%Entities: Chase Burns

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: pitch count, velocity, opener
Intel posture: Opposes
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Projection recheck; review workload-dependent overs

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 74%Entities: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 74%Entities: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Dylan Cease workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 56%Entities: Dylan Cease

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: opener
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Manual review

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 41 Grade B | 342 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (3 play(s))

Batter H+R+RBI - Jonah Heim Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter Total Bases - Gleyber Torres Over

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Over 0.5 +160Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Turner Hill Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (41 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Joe Ryan Over 3.5 (-115) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-111	Recommended

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 93%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Joe Ryan returns from injured list Tier 1
He made three subpar starts to open the second half, never feeling that he really had his delivery right, before being placed on the IL following an Aug. 4 start in Kansas City. He
Joe Ryan's return won't be enough to salvage Twins' fading postseason hopes Tier 3
While he made a significant stride forward in his minor league rehab start for Triple-A St. Paul on Sept. 1, pitching three strong innings and striking out four, he only threw <str
Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Look to Rogers in Labor Day slate - ESPN Tier 2
He made one rehab start, compiling 42 pitches over three stanzas. The veteran right-hander will be on a pitch count before passing the baton to Connor Prielipp, wi
Twins Pitcher Joe Ryan Activated From IL to Start Against Tigers - World Today News Tier 3
Analyzing advanced metrics reveals how crucial Ryan’s four-seam fastball command and sweeper usage will be against a Detroit lineup hunting early-count fastballs. Pitching coaches
Joe Ryan set to return from injured list Tier 1
He made three subpar starts to open the second half, never feeling that he really had his delivery right, before being placed on the IL following an Aug. 4 start in Kansas City. He

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 64.7% vs 17% min; cushion +2.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Joe Ryan: K/9 9.2, proj 5.8K over 5.1 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Edwin Moscoso — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 70 PA | K% 31.4% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .270 | OPS .771
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 70 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.3%, L7 29.1%, season 22.9%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 31.4%/70 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Detroit Tigers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.3%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 45%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 29.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.7% (6/6); lineup K% 21.7% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 19/23 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -6.1 ppts (recent 20.3% vs season 26.4%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Chase Burns Over 4.5 (-116) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-116	-110	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 91%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Burns to face Dodgers with Reds' eyes on innings and pitch count Tier 1
Williamson returned from the 60-day ... Crow-Armstrong leadoff home run and endured some early trouble while throwing 42 of his 100 pitches over the first two inni
How the Reds are managing Chase Burns’ innings down the stretch - Yahoo Sports Tier 3
Burns has been one of the best starting pitchers in the National League this season. He has a 2.76 ERA in 26 starts with 171 strikeouts. He's well past his ca
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Free Pick & MLB Betting Prediction, 9/7/26 Tier 3
The right-hander has piled up 171 strikeouts and has established himself as one of the Reds’ most dependable starters this season. Monday comes with an important w
Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Look to Rogers in Labor Day slate - ESPN Tier 2
He made one rehab start, compiling 42 pitches over three stanzas. The veteran right-hander will be on a pitch count before passing the baton to Connor Prielipp, wi
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/7 & 9/8 & 9/9 | Pitcher List Tier 3
ARI – Cameron’s switch to calling his own pitches has paid off, though I am still worried that his velocity has fallen to hover 92 mph instead of pushing 93/94 mph. ... Emmet Sheeh

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 49.7% vs 17% min; cushion +2.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Chase Burns: K/9 11.1, proj 6.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 12.0 outs/4.0 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .619
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.6%, active roster 20.2%/14 hitters, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.58
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 2.24K, diff 49.7%, books 80%)

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 (-163) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-170	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	Recommended

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Joe Ryan Over 0.5 (-214) diff 130.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 63.8% / Under 36.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-214	+159	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+135	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 93%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Joe Ryan returns from injured list Tier 1
He made three subpar starts to open the second half, never feeling that he really had his delivery right, before being placed on the IL following an Aug. 4 start in Kansas City. He
Joe Ryan's return won't be enough to salvage Twins' fading postseason hopes Tier 3
While he made a significant stride forward in his minor league rehab start for Triple-A St. Paul on Sept. 1, pitching three strong innings and striking out four, he only threw <str
Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Look to Rogers in Labor Day slate - ESPN Tier 2
He made one rehab start, compiling 42 pitches over three stanzas. The veteran right-hander will be on a pitch count before passing the baton to Connor Prielipp, wi
Twins Pitcher Joe Ryan Activated From IL to Start Against Tigers - World Today News Tier 3
Analyzing advanced metrics reveals how crucial Ryan’s four-seam fastball command and sweeper usage will be against a Detroit lineup hunting early-count fastballs. Pitching coaches
Joe Ryan set to return from injured list Tier 1
He made three subpar starts to open the second half, never feeling that he really had his delivery right, before being placed on the IL following an Aug. 4 start in Kansas City. He

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.1510763468826632 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 4.9 IP (BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.8% / under 36.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 70 PA | K% 31.4% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .270 | OPS .771
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.3%, L7 29.1%, season 22.9%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 31.4%/70 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.5%, L7 7.1%, season 9.1%, BVP 10.0%/70 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (6/6); lineup K% 21.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-214); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Dylan Cease Over 1.5 (-171) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-171	+129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	-

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 57%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Blue Jays overcome slew of pitching injuries to move into wild-card spot - United States News Beep | NewsBeep.com Tier 3
Doing so around a constant slate ... midst of Cy Young-calibre season, has been vital on that front, leading the team with 156.1 innings....
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/6 & 9/7 & 9/8 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Kyle Leahy @ COL – It’s Coors + Leahy is on a limited pitch count. Spencer Arrighetti @ KCR – The Pasta Pirate has failed to show any growth that would have me target this. Also, t
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/7 & 9/8 & 9/9 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Dylan Cease @ ATH – Aces gonna ace.
Blue Jays still control fate despite streak-snapping loss to Royals - News Beep | NewsBeep.com Tier 3
There’s some risk in asking even more of them, as Cease and Soriano are already at 156.1 and 156 innings this season while Scherzer is 42 and has only found steady
Blue Jays still control fate despite streak-snapping loss to Royals – MSNBC TV NEWS Tier 3
There’s some risk in asking even more of them, as Cease and Soriano are already at 156.1 and 156 innings this season while Scherzer is 42 and has only found steady

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6710801949624035 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.7 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.1% / under 40.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.3%, L7 7.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jake Irvin Over 1.5 (-165) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-165	+124	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	Recommended

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1886834974979554 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.6 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.9%, L7 8.1%, season 9.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 (-146) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.49 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.97, ERA 5.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, L7 25.1%, season 25.3% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — George Springer Under 1.5 (-265) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269 (68 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/36 (36%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 41/51 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 85/111 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.92

⚠ Heavy juice (-265); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 33 play(s) (B 33)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 (-416) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -416

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+282	-416	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 50%

Late public intel may reduce opportunity, but an unavailable player can void the prop; verify before betting.

Intel Sources

Giants vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet | Sept. 6 Tier 3
The betting impact is straightforward: a rest day for a top-order bat, a catching change, or a late scratch can move both the side and the total. Check the Giants injury report and
OTW 266 - FAAB #25; September 6, 2026 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Montes has started three of his first five games and appears to be pushing Taylor Ward into the short side of a platoon Players Discussed: Lazaro Montes, Taylor Ward ... Power (RBI

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 29/31 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/14 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter Walks: 15/17 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.10

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-416) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Late public intel may reduce opportunity, but an unavailable player can void the prop; verify before betting.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-479) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -479 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -479

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -479 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+320	-479	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 49%

Late public intel may reduce opportunity, but an unavailable player can void the prop; verify before betting.

Intel Sources

Giants vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet | Sept. 6 Tier 3
Because today’s batting order is still projected, a top-order rest day or late scratch would reduce the value of the recent-form signal. Cesar Perdomo enters with a 0-0 record, a 2
Giants vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Best Bet | Sept. 6 Tier 3
The betting impact is straightforward: a rest day for a top-order bat, a catching change, or a late scratch can move both the side and the total. Check the Giants injury report and

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 47/52 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter Walks: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-479) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Late public intel may reduce opportunity, but an unavailable player can void the prop; verify before betting.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — John Peck Under 0.5 (-491) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -491 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -491

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -491 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

Sources found, but no material batter availability or role signal matched.

Intel Sources

Waiver Wire and FAAB Report (Week 24) | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball Tier 2
He has some swing-and-miss issues with 31% K% in AAA and 33% K% in the majors. Right now, he’s not lined up for enough playing time. John Peck: Only starts about half the t

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.14 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/7 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-491) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-548) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -548 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -548

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -548 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+360	-548	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/124 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 53/65 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 105/124 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-548) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-640) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -640 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -640

Selected market: Over 18.5% / Under 81.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -640 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/74 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/36 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter Walks: 34/38 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 66/74 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Heavy juice (-640); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-433) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+292	-433	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+350	-575	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 19/22 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 19/22 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-433) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-500) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/90 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 77/90 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-422) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+286	-422	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 105/130 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 105/130 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-422); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nate Furman Under 0.5 (-437) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -437

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+295	-437	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-437) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-427) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -427

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+289	-427	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 106/131 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 106/131 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-427) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-335) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+232	-335	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/63 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-335) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 68.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+303	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-550	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 27/32 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 14/16 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-425) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/92 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 76/92 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-454) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -454

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+305	-454	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/132 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/64 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 101/132 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-454); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-363) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.7% / Under 73.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+250	-363	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 121/140 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 121/140 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Heavy juice (-363); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-530) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -530

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+350	-530	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 30/40 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/19 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 14/21 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 30/40 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-530) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-500) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -500 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+332	-500	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 11/14 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 19/25 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-338) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+234	-338	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/137 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 106/137 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-338); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-358) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-375	-
DK	0.5	+247	-358	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 26/33 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter Walks: 15/21 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-358) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-376) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+258	-376	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .462
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-376); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-372) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+255	-372	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/143 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 49/71 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 97/143 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-372) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-251) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+170	-235	-
DK	0.5	+178	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 4 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/117 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 88/117 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-251) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-361) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+248	-361	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 94/126 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 94/126 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-361); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-319) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/73 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 21/35 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 49/73 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-319) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-404) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+275	-404	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/140 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/71 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 46/69 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 102/140 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-404) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-284) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 107/130 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 107/130 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-284); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-256) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+181	-256	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/66 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/35 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 50/66 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-256) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-260) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	-
DK	0.5	+183	-260	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/137 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/68 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 96/137 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-260); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-426) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -426 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -426

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -426 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+288	-426	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 76/108 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-426); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-271) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+191	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/134 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/70 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 43/64 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 93/134 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Heavy juice (-271); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-257) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+191	-265	-
DK	0.5	+182	-257	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 75/107 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-257) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-288) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	-
DK	0.5	+202	-288	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.69x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/122 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/58 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 37/64 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 71/122 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.51

⚠ Heavy juice (-288); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-275) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-275) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (342 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 8 play(s) (B 2 | C 6)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Over 4.5 (+108) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	Recommended
DK	4.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 29.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jacob Lopez: K/9 9.2, proj 5.8K over 6.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, active roster 19.7%/14 hitters, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
K% trend: support +5.2 ppts (recent 27.3% vs season 22.1%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (-103) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 7.3 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	-101	-128	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-105	-125	-
DK	7.5	-103	-123	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+100	-128	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.8K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 17.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.2, proj 8.8K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 33.4% | put-away% 24.5% | xwOBA 0.257 | top pitch: Changeup (50% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, active roster 22.1%/14 hitters, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 22%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 8.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 (-123) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-118	-110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-123	-104	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.84K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Nick Pivetta: K/9 10.9, proj 5.3K over 4.2 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/4 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.212 | top pitch: Sweeper (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .448
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.4%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.6%/14 hitters, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Webb Over 4.5 (-158) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 4.9 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+118	Recommended
DK	4.5	-158	+124	Selected
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.8% / under 42.2%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Logan Webb: K/9 7.0, proj 4.9K over 5.6 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, active roster 21.8%/14 hitters, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.76
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jake Irvin Over 4.5 (+124) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +124

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+124	-159	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.1% / under 57.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jake Irvin: K/9 9.3, proj 4.8K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8%, active roster 24.0%/14 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; San Diego Padres 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; L7 team K% 24.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (+110) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	Recommended
DK	3.5	+110	-141	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	3.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.6, proj 3.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.9%/13 hitters, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.9% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.78
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 6.5 (+109) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	6.5	+109	-141	-
DK	6.5	+109	-140	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.6, proj 6.6K over 4.6 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.6% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, L7 25.1%, season 25.3%, active roster 25.5%/13 hitters (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.5% (13 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/20 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 4.5 (+108) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+108	-137	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-160	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.4% / under 54.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Troy Melton: K/9 7.1, proj 4.6K over 5.8 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Edwin Moscoso — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .302 | OPS 1.092
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 47%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.8% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 4 play(s) (B 2 | C 2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-251) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Recommended
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.259)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.260 (76 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/129 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 48/65 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 47/64 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 95/129 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-225) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+167	-225	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.475 (28 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 8/42 (19%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 101/141 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 49/70 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter Hits: 52/71 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 101/141 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-271) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -271

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+199	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.275)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.273 (75 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 6/34 (18%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/140 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/71 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.01 | Away Batter Hits: 51/69 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 102/140 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-238) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+176	-238	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322 (93 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 8/41 (20%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/143 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 53/72 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 47/71 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 100/143 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 73 play(s) (B 5 | C 68)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-130) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.372 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/131 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 40/71 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 68/131 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-128) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.170, xSLG 0.158 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/138 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/67 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 42/71 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 73/138 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-111) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.330 (71 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/137 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 37/68 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 70/137 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-160) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.301 (76 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/129 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/65 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 32/64 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 61/129 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-117) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.320 (76 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/134 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 70/134 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (+107) diff 109.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 109.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 3.17
Base projection 3.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.17 | Season Avg 3.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/6 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-110) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.360, xSLG 0.515 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/140 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/71 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 48/69 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.83 | Day Batter HRR: 87/140 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.47

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-138) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.436 (93 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/143 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 44/71 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.66 | Day Batter HRR: 81/143 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nate Furman Under 1.5 (-186) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/16 (88%) | Season 14/16 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Day Batter HRR: 14/16 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-145) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+110	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.416 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/144 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/69 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 40/75 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 80/144 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+103) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/143 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/74 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 39/69 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 75/143 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-105) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/124 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/64 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 74/124 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shay Whitcomb Under 1.5 (-178) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 27/31 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/14 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter HRR: 15/17 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter HRR: 27/31 under 1.5 (87%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (-118) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.403 (16 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 7/11 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 9/14 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 16/25 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Under 1.5 (-162) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.184, xSLG 0.191 (35 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 97/130 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 50/65 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter HRR: 47/65 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter HRR: 97/130 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-138) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.403 (72 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 69/129 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 69/129 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Turner Hill Over 1.5 (+100) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Away Batter HRR: 4/10 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 9/18 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+100) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.358 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/79 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/41 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter HRR: 15/38 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 39/79 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-103) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.407 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 36.4% | OPS 1.117
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/84 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/37 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 44/84 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-110) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.515 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/98 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 51/98 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-105) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.575 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/137 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 76/137 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-135) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+110	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.394 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/140 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 33/70 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 69/140 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joshua Baez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.178, xSLG 0.279 (11 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Away Batter HRR: 8/16 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 10/22 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-105) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.373, xSLG 0.562 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 60/132 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 60/132 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-108) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.457, xSLG 0.573 (29 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/66 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 31/66 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-117) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.412 (66 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/143 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 41/72 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 70/143 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-112) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.346, xSLG 0.372 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/122 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 60/122 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (+110) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.373, xSLG 0.490 (63 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/118 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/58 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.79 | Away Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 64/118 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-107) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.548 (59 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/126 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 28/66 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 58/126 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-124) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 52/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-132) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.435 (70 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/138 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 42/68 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 71/138 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-134) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.237 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/139 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/70 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 65/139 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Cavanaugh Under 1.5 (-170) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.96
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.386, xSLG 0.412 (16 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 35/46 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/26 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter HRR: 15/20 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter HRR: 35/46 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Under 1.5 (-131) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.187, xSLG 0.248 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/63 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter HRR: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter HRR: 46/63 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+109) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/25 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 6/12 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 4/13 over 1.5 (31%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 10/25 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Under 1.5 (-165) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.479, xSLG 0.571 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .462
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 79/114 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 42/56 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter HRR: 79/114 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-131) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.451 (86 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/138 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 37/70 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 69/138 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 (+136) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 5/14 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 6/11 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-110) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.316 (56 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+120) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.519 (67 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/131 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 58/131 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+104) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.400 (52 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-165) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.235 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/40 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/20 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 12/20 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 25/40 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 (-169) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.320 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 82/136 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/66 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 48/70 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter HRR: 82/136 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+123) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/93 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 49/93 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+115) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/115 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 48/115 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+120) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.325 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 77/136 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/71 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 38/65 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 77/136 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+104) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.266 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Under 1.5 (-168) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.272 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/92 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 54/92 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Charles McAdoo Under 1.5 (-161) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/14 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter HRR: 7/12 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 17/26 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (-152) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-152	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.433 (39 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 33/65 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-157) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.348 (68 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+130) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.274 (78 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+100) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Under 1.5 (-169) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.418, xSLG 0.597 (17 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/130 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/63 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter HRR: 45/67 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter HRR: 83/130 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Under 1.5 (-120) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.402 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/98 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/44 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter HRR: 30/54 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 60/98 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+113) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.463 (43 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/143 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 71/143 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+120) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 15/33 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 5/12 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter HRR: 10/21 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-128) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.333 (75 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 68/140 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 68/140 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Gilbert Under 1.5 (-121) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.290 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 4 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/117 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 43/63 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter HRR: 74/117 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/113 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/58 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 45/113 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dustin Harris Under 1.5 (-166) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 8/10 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter HRR: 10/17 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 (+120) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+117	-157	-
DK	2.5	+120	-159	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.65 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.475, xSLG 0.690 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/141 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/70 over 2.5 (33%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 26/71 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 49/141 over 2.5 (35%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Will Smith Under 1.5 (-136) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.208, xSLG 0.224 (32 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 35/58 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/34 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 15/24 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+105) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.284 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 62/135 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 62/135 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-165) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.350 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 59/101 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-140) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.409 (60 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | OPS .761
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 79/127 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 79/127 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-173) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.221 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 47.1% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .753
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/140 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/68 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 39/72 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 75/140 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Thomas Saggese Under 1.5 (-170) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/40 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +2.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/19 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter HRR: 13/21 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 27/40 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 (-129) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.206, xSLG 0.274 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/91 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/44 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter HRR: 52/91 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (+104) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.164, xSLG 0.193 (37 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/136 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/66 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 58/136 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Under 1.5 (-174) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.402 (75 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 77/124 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 38/65 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 77/124 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brady House Over 1.5 (+126) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.431, xSLG 0.660 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/79 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/37 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 17/42 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 35/79 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+101) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.346, xSLG 0.394 (40 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/108 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 44/108 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Pitcher Outs — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-209) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -209

Selected market: Over 63.3% / Under 36.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-220	+155	-
Caesars	17.5	-205	+150	-
DK	17.5	-209	+155	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-205	+148	-
Fanatics	17.5	-195	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-215	+145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 20.482 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 17.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.76 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.3% / under 36.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.3%, L7 7.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.80 | Season Avg 18.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Under 17.5 (+131) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +131

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-176	+130	-
DK	17.5	-175	+131	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-180	+134	-
Fanatics	17.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.866 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.83 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.5%, L7 6.3%, season 8.3%, BVP 5.4%/37 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/25 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-131) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-137	+103	-
DK	17.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.676 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.06 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .302 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.8%, L7 9.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.2%/46 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Over 5.5 (+102) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+102	-136	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-117) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (-105) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.928666643315787 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 12.0 outs/4.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 11.5%, L7 12.5%, season 9.9%, BVP 0.0%/21 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Under 1.5 (-182) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3003974120860056 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.4 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.6% / under 60.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.5%, L7 6.3%, season 8.3%, BVP 5.4%/37 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Over 1.5 (-153) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6951226586954717 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 8.4%, L7 10.0%, season 7.3%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 (-142) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6362843539190943 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.6 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, L7 25.1%, season 25.3% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, L7 10.3%, season 9.6% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 (+167) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +167

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+167	-225	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+165	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6327693228858706 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.1 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/4 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 35.1% / under 64.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .448
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.4%, L7 10.6%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.7%/30 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/4 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (+112) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+115	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5801035182069696 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .302 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.8%, L7 9.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.2%/46 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (-197) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3714804621313146 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.9% / under 62.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.7%, L7 8.3%, season 7.4%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Joe Ryan Over 1.5 (+100) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.70 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 4.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joe Ryan: 70 PA | K% 31.4% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .270 | OPS .771
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.3%, L7 29.1%, season 22.9%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 31.4%/70 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (6/6); lineup K% 21.7% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (-110) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.43, ERA 3.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 12.0 outs/4.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-167) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+125	-167	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.46 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 2.81)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .302 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (+105) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+105	-140	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.71 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 4.62)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Irvin Over 2.5 (-124) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.41 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.66, ERA 5.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 (-109) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 4.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/4 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .448
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (-112) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.27 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.76, ERA 2.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Over 2.5 (-110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 5.00, ERA 3.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 7/23 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -1.09 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-172) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.83, ERA 5.08)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 60 play(s) (C 60)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-115) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-115	-120	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/118 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 34/60 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 64/118 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-375) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/84 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 30/42 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 64/84 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-369) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+254	-369	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 34/46 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/26 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 19/20 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-336) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+232	-336	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/108 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 90/108 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-479) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -479 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -479

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -479 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+320	-479	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 101/126 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 101/126 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-468) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+313	-468	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 71/86 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 71/86 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-347) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+239	-347	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 111/143 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/71 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 111/143 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-306) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+214	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 9/13 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 18/25 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-424) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -424

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+287	-424	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/79 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/37 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 33/42 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 60/79 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-373) diff 42.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+256	-373	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/92 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 34/45 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 71/92 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-338) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+234	-338	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 10/14 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 10/12 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 20/26 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-377) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -377

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+258	-377	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.41x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | OPS .761
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/127 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 103/127 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-463) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -463

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+310	-463	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-371) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+255	-371	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/117 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 81/117 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Juan Brito Under 0.5 (-277) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+195	-277	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 14/19 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Freeland Under 0.5 (-247) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/78 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/41 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 25/37 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 57/78 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-336) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+232	-336	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dustin Harris Under 0.5 (-380) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -380 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -380

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -380 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+260	-380	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 6/10 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 14/17 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 20/27 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-190) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 77/106 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-309) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+215	-309	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 106/140 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/70 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 54/70 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 106/140 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-423) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -423

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+286	-423	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/133 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 48/67 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 96/133 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-247) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/93 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 72/93 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Turner Hill Under 0.5 (-286) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+200	-286	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 7/10 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 10/18 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-303) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+212	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 47.1% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .753
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/140 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/68 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 45/72 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 93/140 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-246) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -246 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+175	-246	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 89/117 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/117 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-347) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+240	-347	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/92 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/45 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 69/92 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-160) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+111	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+115	-160	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 88/144 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/69 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 42/75 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 88/144 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-314) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -314

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+219	-314	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 90/143 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/71 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 41/72 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 90/143 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-251) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+178	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/101 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/101 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Jorge Under 0.5 (-375) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-323) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+224	-323	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/6 under 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+153) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +153

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+153	-214	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/139 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/70 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 28/69 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 55/139 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-204) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 76/113 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-299) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -299

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+209	-299	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/119 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 80/119 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-306) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/74 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/37 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 25/37 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 54/74 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+159) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +159

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+159	-224	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/136 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/66 over 0.5 (26%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/70 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 51/136 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+104) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+108	-138	-
DK	0.5	+104	-144	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/129 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 29/68 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 59/129 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-288) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+202	-288	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 93/143 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/74 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 48/69 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 93/143 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-322) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+223	-322	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 95/136 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/71 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 47/65 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 95/136 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+112) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +112

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	-
DK	0.5	+112	-155	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/115 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/59 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 54/115 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-167) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -167

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+121	-167	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/98 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/47 under 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 31/51 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 53/98 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-252) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+178	-252	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/58 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 69/110 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-190) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/34 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 14/24 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-278) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+195	-278	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/79 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/41 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 19/38 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 42/79 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-181) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -181

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+142	-193	-
DK	0.5	+130	-181	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/91 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 64/91 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-184) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+133	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/138 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 95/138 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-175) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+126	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 77/131 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/67 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 32/64 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 77/131 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-180) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+130	-176	-
DK	0.5	+130	-180	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/138 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 40/68 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 88/138 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-272) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+191	-272	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/138 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/67 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 42/71 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 75/138 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Walker Jenkins Under 0.5 (-335) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -335 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+232	-335	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.56 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/9 under 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (+168) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +168

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+168	-236	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/58 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/31 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 12/27 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 21/58 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (+131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+131	-183	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 21/65 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 12/32 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 9/33 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 21/65 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (+142) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+150	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+142	-198	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/25 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 3/11 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 5/14 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 8/25 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-245) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+174	-245	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/141 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/70 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 49/71 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 94/141 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+113) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+116	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+113	-157	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/135 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/69 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 27/66 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 58/135 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-168) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+118	-159	-
DK	0.5	+121	-168	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/124 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/64 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 75/124 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 (+121) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +121

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+121	-168	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 40/129 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/65 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 20/64 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 40/129 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Over 0.5 (+128) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +128

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+136	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+128	-178	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 37/111 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/60 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 16/51 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 37/111 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 (+175) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +175

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 36.4% | OPS 1.117
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/84 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 12/37 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 24/47 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 36/84 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-191) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -191

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+137	-191	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 92/136 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/66 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 92/136 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 94 play(s) (C 87 | D 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leonardo Bernal Over 0.5 (+160) diff 296.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-197	+144	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 296.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/6 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 296% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joshua Baez Over 0.5 (+160) diff 268.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 268.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Away Batter TB: 9/16 over 0.5 (56%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 13/22 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.95

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 268% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ethan Salas Over 0.5 (-132) diff 241.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/3 (0%) | L10 0/3 (0%) | L20 0/3 (0%) | Season 0/3 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/3 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 241% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (+150) diff 228.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 8/13 over 0.5 (62%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 15/25 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.64

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 0.5 (+140) diff 224.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.490 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/118 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 37/60 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 79/118 over 0.5 (67%), avg 2.04

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (+150) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Jorge Over 0.5 (+107) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.4% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (+200) diff 210.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/14 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 8/11 over 0.5 (73%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 19/25 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.64

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 0.5 (-108) diff 208.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 0.5 (+160) diff 203.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.519 (67 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/131 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/67 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 37/64 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 71/131 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.58

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+160) diff 202.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 66/115 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/59 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 32/56 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 66/115 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.51

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (+170) diff 190.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 58/110 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 0.5 (+170) diff 181.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/93 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/49 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 25/44 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 61/93 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 181.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 0.5 (+160) diff 180.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 90/136 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 44/65 over 0.5 (68%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 90/136 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 (+160) diff 180.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+157	-213	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.407 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 36.4% | OPS 1.117
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 56/84 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/37 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 31/47 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 56/84 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (+180) diff 180.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/58 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/31 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 12/27 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (+180) diff 179.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 20/33 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 13/21 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 20/33 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 (+170) diff 172.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 172.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 66/113 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 172.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 172.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 173% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-140) diff 170.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (78 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 71/108 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 171% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 158.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (52 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 67/107 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 159% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (+190) diff 152.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.221 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 47.1% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .753
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 76/140 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/68 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 38/72 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 76/140 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (+190) diff 144.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.330 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/117 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 32/60 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 64/117 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 (+180) diff 138.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.394 (40 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 65/108 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 0.5 (+180) diff 130.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.660 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/79 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/37 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 24/42 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 51/79 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 130.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (+200) diff 130.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.272 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/92 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 52/92 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 130.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (+220) diff 128.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 128.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/119 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 54/119 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 128.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 128.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Thomas Saggese Over 0.5 (-150) diff 127.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+124	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/40 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/19 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter TB: 10/21 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 18/40 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (+180) diff 127.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/101 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/50 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 61/101 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 (+190) diff 126.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.344 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/92 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/46 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 30/46 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 59/92 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 126.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 0.5 (+200) diff 120.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 120.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.597 (17 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/130 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/63 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 35/67 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 67/130 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 120.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 120.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+170) diff 118.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+114	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.193 (37 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/136 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/66 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 41/70 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 75/136 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 118.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (+200) diff 116.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 116.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.402 (75 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/124 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 38/65 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 66/124 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 116.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 116.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+160) diff 114.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 114.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (58 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 77/135 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/69 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter TB: 42/66 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 77/135 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 114.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 114.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 0.5 (+190) diff 111.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+101	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.479 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/92 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/47 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 54/92 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (+170) diff 108.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 108.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.274 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/91 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/44 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 22/47 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 46/91 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 108.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 108.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Will Smith Over 0.5 (+150) diff 99.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 99.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.224 (32 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/58 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/34 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 14/24 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Charles McAdoo Over 0.5 (+160) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/14 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 8/12 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 14/26 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (+190) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/136 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/66 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/70 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 70/136 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 87.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 87.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dustin Harris Over 0.5 (-145) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.6% / Under 44.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.85
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 4/10 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter TB: 10/17 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 14/27 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (+200) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/108 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 57/108 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 84.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 84.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (+240) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +240

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/126 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/62 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 33/64 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 71/126 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 0.5 (+190) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 16/32 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/16 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 6/16 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.81 | Day Batter TB: 16/32 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 (+220) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.05
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (57 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/73 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/38 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 18/35 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 37/73 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (+190) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.88 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.92
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.571 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .462
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/114 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 54/114 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 75.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 75.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (+230) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +230

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.253 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/52 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/26 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter TB: 13/26 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 24/52 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 (-149) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.74
Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.369 (14 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/86 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 18/45 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter TB: 33/86 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Rojas Over 0.5 (-123) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.82
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.509 (29 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/90 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/44 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.76 | Day Batter TB: 38/90 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (+200) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 18/46 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/26 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter TB: 8/20 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter TB: 18/46 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Under 1.5 (-207) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+145	-200	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/63 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 28/32 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter TB: 51/63 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Walker Jenkins Over 0.5 (+200) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/9 (33%) | L20 3/9 (33%) | Season 3/9 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.78 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/9 over 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nate Furman Under 0.5 (-300) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 0.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter TB: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+110) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.416 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/144 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/69 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 35/75 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 66/144 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-110) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.690 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/141 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 61/141 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — John Peck Over 0.5 (-141) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 0.5 -141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/7 (29%) | L20 2/7 (29%) | Season 2/7 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.71 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/7 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 (-130) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 0.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/31 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 2/14 over 0.5 (14%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter TB: 5/17 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter TB: 7/31 over 0.5 (23%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+143) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/140 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/71 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 66/140 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Under 1.5 (+160) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +160

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 4 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/117 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 51/63 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 91/117 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+134) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/124 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 58/124 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-201) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	Recommended
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (60 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | OPS .761
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 85/127 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 45/68 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 85/127 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.436 (93 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 65/143 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/72 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 65/143 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+132) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/143 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/74 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 29/69 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 59/143 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-131) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.301 (76 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/129 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/65 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 40/64 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 82/129 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-190) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+108) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (72 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/129 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 58/129 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-173) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (76 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 86/134 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/70 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 40/64 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 86/134 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (+180) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (35 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/130 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/65 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter TB: 25/65 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter TB: 45/130 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+112) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/140 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 57/140 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+139) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.562 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 50/132 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/64 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 50/132 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+133) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 45/117 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-162) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	Recommended
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.333 (75 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/140 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/71 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 42/69 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 87/140 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+116) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.548 (59 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/126 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 26/66 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 51/126 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Under 1.5 (+140) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.463 (43 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 87/143 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.12 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/71 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 44/72 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 87/143 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+125) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 50/131 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/60 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 50/131 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-151) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	Recommended
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.433 (39 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/65 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 46/65 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-131) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.348 (68 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/60 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 66/111 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-190) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/79 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 12/38 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 33/79 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+113) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.435 (70 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/138 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/70 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 38/68 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 61/138 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.372 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/122 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 56/122 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-158) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.158 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/138 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/67 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 42/71 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 85/138 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.237 (34 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/139 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/70 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 25/69 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 49/139 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Under 1.5 (-197) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.573 (29 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/66 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/35 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 19/31 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 42/66 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Under 1.5 (-181) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+128	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (56 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 70/106 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+143) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.575 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/137 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 26/68 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 54/137 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (86 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/138 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/68 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 55/138 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-191) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (66 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 92/143 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 46/72 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 92/143 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.330 (71 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/137 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/69 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 53/137 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+161) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +161

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+161	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (16 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/11 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 7/14 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Turner Hill Over 0.5 (-200) diff 154.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.3% / Under 37.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-200	+148	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 154.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Away Batter TB: 6/10 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 10/18 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 154.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 0.5 (+190) diff 105.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 105.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.235 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 22/40 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/20 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 11/20 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 22/40 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 105.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.6% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-120) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.05
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.357 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 38/74 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/37 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter TB: 21/37 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 38/74 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 0.5 (+109) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.221 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/74 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/36 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 15/38 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter TB: 37/74 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 74.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Edwin Arroyo Over 0.5 (-108) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.78
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/50 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/24 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter TB: 14/26 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter TB: 26/50 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Alex Freeland Over 0.5 (+112) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.377 (22 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 31/78 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/41 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter TB: 17/37 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter TB: 31/78 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (+300) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +300

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.75
Base projection 0.75 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/133 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/66 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter TB: 36/67 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.81 | Day Batter TB: 64/133 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Cincinnati Reds (+120) edge 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS +125 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +120

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetUS +125 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Cincinnati Reds) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kyle Hurt (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Chase Burns xFIP 3.43
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 105)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Chase Burns (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Batter HR — 81 play(s) (C 81)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 98.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0075
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 132/133 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/66 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 66/67 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01 | Day Batter HR: 132/133 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 96.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0229
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (35 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 127/130 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 63/65 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 127/130 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (16 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 25/25 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/11 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 14/14 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 25/25 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0351
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.571 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .462
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/114 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 56/56 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 110/114 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nate Furman Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/16 (100%) | Season 16/16 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HR: 16/16 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 46/46 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 20/20 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 46/46 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 91.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0500
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.235 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 38/40 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/20 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 19/20 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 38/40 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0620
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.301 (76 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 121/129 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/65 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 56/64 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 121/129 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0630
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (60 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | OPS .761
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 119/127 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 119/127 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 88.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0549
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.274 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/91 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/44 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 86/91 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0606
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 31/33 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 20/21 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0643
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.333 (75 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 131/140 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 66/69 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 131/140 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0676
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.357 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 69/74 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/37 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 69/74 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.253 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 50/52 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0635
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 59/63 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0794
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 116/126 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 59/64 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 116/126 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0672
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (76 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 125/134 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/70 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 59/64 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 125/134 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0792
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/101 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 94/101 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0692
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.597 (17 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 123/130 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 65/67 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 123/130 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 24/26 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 13/14 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0684
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 4 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 109/117 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 109/117 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0687
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 123/131 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 123/131 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0978
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.344 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/92 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 83/92 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0889
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (58 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 123/135 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/69 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 57/66 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 123/135 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0806
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.402 (75 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 115/124 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 59/65 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 115/124 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0809
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.193 (37 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 125/136 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/66 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 125/136 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0956
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 123/136 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 68/70 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 123/136 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0926
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.394 (40 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1087
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.479 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 82/92 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 82/92 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-800) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1034
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.224 (32 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/58 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 24/24 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0940
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.330 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/117 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 106/117 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.573 (29 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 60/66 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 60/66 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1014
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.158 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 124/138 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/67 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 124/138 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0952
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.407 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 36.4% | OPS 1.117
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 76/84 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 76/84 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 37/40 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 18/19 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 19/21 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1266
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.660 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 69/79 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 69/79 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Walker Jenkins Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/9 (89%) | L20 8/9 (89%) | Season 8/9 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.11 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/9 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1233
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (57 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 64/73 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 32/35 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 64/73 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-900) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1159
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.435 (70 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 123/138 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 123/138 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1399
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.463 (43 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 127/143 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 66/72 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 127/143 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1119
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (66 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 128/143 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 128/143 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1200
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 22/25 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 14/14 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-650) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.348 (68 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1231
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.433 (39 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/65 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 57/65 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-900) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1296
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (78 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1562
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 27/32 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 14/16 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1413
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.272 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/92 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 79/92 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/58 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 106/119 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 106/119 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1314
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.575 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 121/137 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 121/137 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1475
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.372 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/122 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 53/64 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 106/122 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1571
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.221 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 47.1% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .753
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 119/140 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 62/72 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 119/140 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1698
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (56 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/106 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 90/106 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1679
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.330 (71 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 115/137 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 53/68 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 115/137 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1469
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.436 (93 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 124/143 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 124/143 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1828
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/93 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 76/93 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2206
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 108/136 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/65 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 108/136 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.17 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/6 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1772
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 66/79 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 31/38 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 66/79 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1418
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.690 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 125/141 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/70 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 62/71 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 125/141 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1571
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 119/140 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 119/140 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 14.5% / Under 85.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1531
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-900) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1709
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 100/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-900) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1855
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/124 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 102/124 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1905
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.548 (59 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 104/126 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 104/126 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1871
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.237 (34 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 115/139 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/70 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 56/69 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 115/139 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-650) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1985
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.519 (67 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 110/131 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 110/131 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1909
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/110 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 90/110 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1913
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/115 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/115 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 61.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1970
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.562 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 109/132 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/64 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 109/132 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-450) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2029
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (86 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 111/138 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 111/138 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.5% / Under 84.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/25 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 10/13 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-550) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2542
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.490 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 89/118 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 112/140 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 112/140 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-400) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2256
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (72 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/129 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 101/129 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2168
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 114/143 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/74 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/69 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 114/143 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2431
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.416 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 112/144 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/69 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 59/75 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 112/144 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3182
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter HR: 12/16 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter HR: 17/22 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	9:11 PM	F5 ML	Cincinnati Reds	DK	+120	42.9%	53.1%	+10.3%	$+16.90	8	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (1 play(s))

C Cincinnati Reds — Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +10.3%

[OUT] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Cincinnati Reds) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kyle Hurt (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Chase Burns xFIP 3.43
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 105)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Chase Burns (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

3:11 PM · decision fi-31c32050be75933c

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.6%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -128

Raw Edge

-6.5%

Effective Edge

-6.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +102

Raw Edge

+0.9%

Effective Edge

+0.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Joe Ryan · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Troy Melton · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T18:01:25.942251Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.496
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Joe Ryan / Troy Melton announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.496

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJoe Ryan / Troy Melton announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-135	+102	53.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-134	+100	53.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres

5:11 PM · decision fi-72778a245f596cbb

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-3.5%

Effective Edge

-5.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -104

Raw Edge

-0.9%

Effective Edge

-2.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Jake Irvin · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Nick Pivetta · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T18:01:25.942251Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jake Irvin / Nick Pivetta announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJake Irvin / Nick Pivetta announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-120	-112	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants

8:11 PM · decision fi-6e99dfb7262b9e44

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -122

Raw Edge

-4.2%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +110

Raw Edge

+1.6%

Effective Edge

+0.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Michael McGreevy · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Webb · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T18:01:25.942251Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael McGreevy / Logan Webb announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael McGreevy / Logan Webb announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-147	+110	55.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-134	+100	53.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

9:11 PM · decision fi-f653513956e848d1

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Chase Burns · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T18:07:32.370700Z

both starters must be officially announced

3 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics

10:06 PM · decision fi-007e80381833f362

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -130

Raw Edge

-5.8%

Effective Edge

-6.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +108

Raw Edge

+1.2%

Effective Edge

+0.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Dylan Cease · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jacob Lopez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T18:01:25.942251Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Dylan Cease / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDylan Cease / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-137	+103	54.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 81 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=81
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	38.6%	19.7%	+18.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	3	Troy Melton (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	35.1%	17.9%	+17.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+275	-	33.6%	24.6%	+9.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	32.8%	17.9%	+15.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Merrill	San Diego Padres	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.9%	18.8%	+11.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Eldridge	San Francisco Giants	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	28.9%	14.5%	+14.4%	96	-
Best HR Chance	Ty France	San Diego Padres	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	28.3%	15.6%	+12.7%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Ryan Jeffers	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	4	Troy Melton (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	27.5%	15.6%	+11.9%	92	-
Best HR Chance	Hector Rodriguez	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	-	TBD	theScore Bet	+500	-	27.3%	15.5%	+11.8%	91	-
Best HR Chance	Eugenio Suarez	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	-	TBD	theScore Bet	+400	-	26.9%	18.8%	+8.1%	90	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	-	TBD	theScore Bet	+425	-	26.8%	17.9%	+8.9%	89	-
Best HR Chance	Josh Bell	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	5	Troy Melton (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	26.7%	15.0%	+11.8%	89	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	-	TBD	theScore Bet	+500	-	26.7%	15.6%	+11.1%	89	-
Best HR Chance	Riley Greene	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	4	Joe Ryan (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	26.3%	17.1%	+9.2%	88	-
Best HR Chance	Luis Campusano	San Diego Padres	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	26.1%	15.0%	+11.2%	87	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	-	TBD	theScore Bet	+425	-	25.7%	17.9%	+7.8%	86	-
Strong HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	5	Joe Ryan (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	25.6%	14.3%	+11.3%	85	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	-	Logan Webb (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	24.9%	13.3%	+11.6%	83	-
Best HR Chance	Brooks Lee	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	2	Troy Melton (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	24.9%	13.3%	+11.6%	83	-
Best HR Chance	Spencer Torkelson	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	7	Joe Ryan (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	24.6%	15.0%	+9.7%	82	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Watchlist	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	100	84.0%	-523	Hector Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	94	83.3%	-498	Kazuma Okamoto, Zack Gelof, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	100	83.2%	-495	Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, Riley Greene	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91	-
Watchlist	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	100	83.0%	-487	Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Jordan Walker, Joshua Baez	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	100	81.7%	-445	Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Ty France, Luis Campusano	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Rafael Devers — St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (+375) HR chance 38.6% | edge +18.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.243, OPS 0.855, ISO 0.259, TB/G 1.95
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/112.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.467
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/144 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0316, xFIP 4.26, K% 16.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.36, whiff 19.8%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 2.467, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.069, OPS 1.009, ISO 0.323 (404 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Kody Clemens — Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers (+425) HR chance 35.1% | edge +17.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.191, OPS 0.762, ISO 0.226, TB/G 1.71
Statcast: barrel 11.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.4/108.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.465
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 22/126 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0273, xFIP 4.06, K% 20.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.293, xERA 3.58, whiff 24.6%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.429, K% 14.3% (7 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.780, ISO 0.245 (375 PA)

Best HR Chance Kazuma Okamoto — Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics (+275) HR chance 33.6% | edge +9.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.203, OPS 0.745, ISO 0.211, TB/G 1.62
Statcast: barrel 12.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.428
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 27/138 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0377, xFIP 5.00, K% 22.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.286, xERA 3.40, whiff 25.3%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.074, OPS 1.010 (27 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.054, OPS 0.831, ISO 0.250 (148 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Manny Machado — Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (+425) HR chance 32.8% | edge +15.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.187, OPS 0.724, ISO 0.193, TB/G 1.53
Statcast: barrel 9.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.4/112.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.429
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 24/139 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0409, xFIP 4.66, K% 22.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.350, xERA 5.29, whiff 23.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.047, OPS 0.723, ISO 0.194 (447 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.237, xwOBA 0.252 (34 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Jackson Merrill — Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (+400) HR chance 29.9% | edge +11.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.157, OPS 0.701, ISO 0.174, TB/G 1.59
Statcast: barrel 11.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/112.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.475
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 21/140 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0409, xFIP 4.66, K% 22.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.350, xERA 5.29, whiff 23.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.043, OPS 0.699, ISO 0.194 (421 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.394, xwOBA 0.305 (56 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Bryce Eldridge — St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (+550) HR chance 28.9% | edge +14.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.153, OPS 0.806, ISO 0.185, TB/G 1.60
Statcast: barrel 11.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.3/113.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.461
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 15/98 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0316, xFIP 4.26, K% 16.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.36, whiff 19.8%
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0338
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.515, xwOBA 0.362 (51 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Ty France — Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (+500) HR chance 28.3% | edge +12.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.171, OPS 0.871, ISO 0.221, TB/G 1.64
Statcast: barrel 9.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.9/109.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.427
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 17/117 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0409, xFIP 4.66, K% 22.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.350, xERA 5.29, whiff 23.2%
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.278, xwOBA 0.236 (31 PA)
Park HR factor 0.85

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Ryan Jeffers — Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers (+500) HR chance 27.5% | edge +11.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.177, OPS 0.872, ISO 0.233, TB/G 1.72
Statcast: barrel 11.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.0/113.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.452
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 13/79 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0273, xFIP 4.06, K% 20.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.293, xERA 3.58, whiff 24.6%
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.358, xwOBA 0.302 (40 PA)
Park HR factor 0.91

⚠ Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	+1400	0.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Tommy White	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	+1000	0.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Myles Straw	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	+1100	0.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Zach McKinstry	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	+1000	1.0%	Low season HR rate \| BvP strikeout risk \| Cold recent HR form
Bryan Torres	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	+1000	1.0%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Jacob Young	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	+1100	1.1%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Carlos Cortes	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	+800	1.2%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Donovan Walton	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	+1000	1.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA)
Nathan Church	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	+1100	1.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Jeff McNeil	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	+800	1.4%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	Nick Pivetta	Jake Irvin	0.85	18.3%	49.5%	-	+0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	Logan Webb	Michael McGreevy	0.82	17.0%	47.2%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	Troy Melton	Joe Ryan	0.91	16.8%	46.8%	9.3%	+7.5%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	Jacob Lopez	Dylan Cease	1.00	16.7%	46.6%	-	+0.0%
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	None	Chase Burns	0.97	16.1%	45.4%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

21 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	75.7	58.5	100.0	6	Sweeper (41% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.212, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	73.2	75.0	79.0	6	Changeup (50% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 33.4%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	70.6	71.2	74.5	4	Sweeper (47% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	65.7	67.6	68.0	4	Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	58.6	51.8	64.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	57.1	62.4	52.5	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	56.8	53.1	62.5	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	56.2	61.4	52.5	6	Slider (42% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	55.3	52.3	61.0	6	Slider (34% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	52.4	47.7	57.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	52.3	54.1	52.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jonah Tong	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	48.3	38.3	53.0	4	Changeup (30% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 11.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	47.2	43.6	50.5	6	Sweeper (27% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	46.4	42.3	52.0	5	Changeup (27% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	45.6	50.9	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	42.8	44.6	39.0	5	Slider (39% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	40.8	47.2	31.0	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	40.3	46.6	32.5	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brayan Bello	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	38.9	47.3	30.0	6	Cutter (48% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	35.2	38.3	31.5	7	Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Derek Law	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	24.1	41.8	0.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.450, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

21 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Derek Law	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	R	19.9%	1.1	-	4.8	18	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.9%	6.0	4.8	6.0	101	deep	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	17.9%	4.2	4.9	4.8	70	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	L	24.4%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Brayan Bello	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	R	14.8%	2.9	4.5	4.3	49	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.9 IP/start
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	16.8%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	29.1%	5.1	5.6	5.5	86	short	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	L	22.9%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	19.2%	5.5	6.0	5.9	92	normal	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	20.3%	6.0	5.7	5.7	101	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	R	21.5%	4.6	4.8	4.8	77	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	24.4%	4.0	5.4	5.1	67	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	L	21.5%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	R	24.3%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jonah Tong	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	21.4%	2.8	-	5.2	47	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	L	31.1%	5.9	6.1	6.0	99	normal	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	R	29.2%	4.0	4.0	4.8	67	short	full	100.00	0.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.1%	4.8	6.0	5.8	80	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	R	17.0%	5.3	5.5	5.4	89	normal	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	R	34.2%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	R	22.7%	4.6	4.8	4.7	77	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

3/3 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	17.5	20.5	3.0	17.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.8	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

73 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Leonardo Bernal	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.98	1.76	0.61	0.61	3.14 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.35	1.03	0.56	0.77	2.34 / Over	0.40	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.34	1.10	0.69	0.55	2.33 / Over	0.40	season_games=124,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.34	0.96	0.81	0.57	1.99 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.31	1.11	0.57	0.63	2.52 / Over	0.35	season_games=140,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shohei Ohtani	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.31	1.02	0.67	0.61	2.14 / Over	0.35	season_games=133,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.29	1.38	0.64	0.28	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=25,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ryan Jeffers	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.23	0.94	0.58	0.70	2.11 / Over	0.30	season_games=79,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.20	1.08	0.49	0.63	2.49 / Over	0.35	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kevin McGonigle	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.19	1.11	0.69	0.39	1.96 / Over	0.30	season_games=138,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.17	0.95	0.58	0.64	1.71 / Over	0.35	season_games=136,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.16	1.06	0.66	0.44	1.78 / Over	0.30	season_games=129,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Gleyber Torres	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.13	1.05	0.61	0.46	2.09 / Over	0.30	season_games=84,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Freddie Freeman	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.11	1.11	0.51	0.49	1.96 / Over	0.35	season_games=138,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Riley Greene	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.10	1.02	0.54	0.54	2.01 / Over	0.30	season_games=122,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Rafael Devers	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.10	0.99	0.52	0.58	2.40 / Over	0.35	season_games=144,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jung Hoo Lee	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.08	1.17	0.52	0.38	2.19 / Over	0.30	season_games=131,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Josh Bell	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.07	0.95	0.49	0.63	2.08 / Over	0.30	season_games=137,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Dillon Dingler	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.06	0.94	0.47	0.65	2.03 / Over	0.30	season_games=132,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Mookie Betts	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.04	0.94	0.54	0.56	1.81 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Tommy Edman	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.04	0.95	0.58	0.51	2.02 / Over	0.35	season_games=66,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.03	0.91	0.51	0.60	1.98 / Over	0.30	season_games=126,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brooks Lee	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.03	1.00	0.51	0.52	1.91 / Over	0.30	season_games=137,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Zack Gelof	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.00	0.87	0.68	0.45	1.74 / Over	0.35	season_games=93,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Teoscar Hernandez	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.96	1.07	0.48	0.40	1.77 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

MLB Intel Radar

Joe Ryan workload or role risk

Chase Burns workload or role risk

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies game or team context update

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins game or team context update

Dylan Cease workload or role risk

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes