MLB Bets 2026-09-07

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	119W–81L–0P	60%	-0.93 u	Last 14 days • 200 settled
Grade A	12W–8L–0P	60%	+0.08 u
Grade B	107W–73L–0P	59%	-1.01 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3844W–2420L–8P	61%	-267.76 u	All-time • 6272 settled
Grade A	279W–220L–0P	56%	-12.34 u
Grade B	3563W–2191L–8P	62%	-248.98 u

96 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	4.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	K Prop	Jonah Tong	4.5	115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Brayan Bello	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Jonah Tong	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Webb	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Robert Gasser	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Trevor Rogers	1.5	-169	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jacob Lopez	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Cameron	5.5	-106	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Brayan Bello	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Dylan Cease	1.5	-179	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Grant Holmes	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Jake Irvin	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-198	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Matthew Boyd	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Noah Cameron	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-06	K Prop	Aaron Nola	5.5	-117	-	LOSS	-1.000	Aaron Nola: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-09-06	K Prop	Payton Tolle	6.5	-153	-	WIN	+0.654	Payton Tolle: 12.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	633	55%	-25.88u	38	58%	+0.03u	298	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	541	57%	+5.18u	28	61%	+0.80u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	702	56%	-34.91u	71	52%	-8.40u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	476	62%	+0.03u	50	72%	+7.08u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	135	48%	-14.15u	6	50%	-0.45u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 21 total candidate(s); season N 633, 14d N 38	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 541, 14d N 28	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 18 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 18/18 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 851 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 235 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 818 pitcher(s), 3638 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 602 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 18 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 22 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 22 roster team(s), 308 hitter(s) \| 18 SP matchup(s), 884 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 308 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 1 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 22 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, Athletics, Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 22 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 14 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 363 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 11/11 game(s) with pitching props \| K 21 line(s)/11 game(s); Outs 21 line(s)/11 game(s); Hits Allowed 21 line(s)/11 game(s); Walks 19 line(s)/11 game(s); Earned Runs 19 line(s)/11 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 95, bovada_direct 6
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 290 market side(s) checked \| 290 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 11 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 654 \| batter bats 358 \| batter hand splits 141 \| pitcher HR splits 50 \| batter pitch-type 602 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 11 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 131 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	+139	-168	1.5 (-154)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	1:11 PM	+102	-123	1.5 (-206)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	+112	-135	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+149	-181	1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	2:11 PM	-104	-116	-1.5 (+153)	1.5 (-186)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+105	-126	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	+157	-192	1.5 (-134)	-1.5 (+111)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	-217	+177	-1.5 (-122)	1.5 (+101)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 17 Grade B | 61 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Trevor Rogers Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.5

K Prop - Troy Melton Over

Projection: 4.5Displayed: Over 4.5 +125Market line: majority 3.5 | avg 3.9Recommended: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -170 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 3.9 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.9

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (17 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jonah Tong Under 4.5 (+115) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	-
BetOnline	4.5	-141	+108	-
BetRivers	4.5	-127	-106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-147	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 25.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jonah Tong: K/9 7.7, proj 3.4K over 4.4 IP (default 5.8 IP; recent 3.1 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 11.0% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 37.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jonah Tong: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .133 | OPS .388
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.5%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 (-117) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-120	-108	-
BetRivers	4.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-117	-109	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 24.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 9.0, proj 5.6K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .292 | OPS .833
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 26.3% vs season 20.7%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 102 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-106) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 (-148) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-170	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

▸ Pitcher Walks — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Dylan Cease Over 1.5 (-179) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 60.0% / Under 40.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -179 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6710801949624035 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.7 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.0% / under 40.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.3%, L7 7.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-179); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-198) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 62.2% / Under 37.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -198 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4750422521756392 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 4.6 IP (BB% 11.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.2% / under 37.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 17.1% | AVG .172 | OPS .521
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.0%, L7 25.8%, season 24.5%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 7.8%, L7 7.9%, season 9.8%, BVP 17.1%/35 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-198); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jake Irvin Over 1.5 (-153) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1886834974979554 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.6 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.9%, L7 8.1%, season 9.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grant Holmes Over 1.5 (-170) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9964108478397555 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .215 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.9%, L7 18.5%, season 22.0%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.5%, L7 8.1%, season 8.5%, BVP 12.2%/74 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (-164) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9262833332060085 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.4%, L7 11.2%, season 10.7%, BVP 8.1%/124 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-164) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Noah Cameron Over 1.5 (-152) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7906120405187695 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.1%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brayan Bello Under 1.5 (-147) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.2375736686397265 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.2 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, L7 26.6%, season 25.2% (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, L7 5.4%, season 8.2% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Over 1.5 (-159) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.83, ERA 5.08)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Over 1.5 (-169) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-169	+127	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.04 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 4.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (-168) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.48 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 4.77)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .237 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-168) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Brayan Bello Over 1.5 (-134) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.90 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 5.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, L7 26.6%, season 25.2% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.30 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jonah Tong Over 1.5 (-155) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-155	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.25 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 4.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 3.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jonah Tong: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .133 | OPS .388
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.5%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.33 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/3 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-164) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.91 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 3.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 17.1% | AVG .172 | OPS .521
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.0%, L7 25.8%, season 24.5%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (61 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 19 play(s) (A 1 | B 7 | C 11)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 3.5 (-147) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	3.5	-177	+132	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-165	+125	-
DK	3.5	-147	+115	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-160	+124	-
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 37.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Noah Cameron: K/9 7.5, proj 4.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barksdale — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Weather: +8% run env ✓ Over | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup — posture note at B

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -147 -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.31K, diff 37.5%, books 80%)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chase Burns Over 4.5 (-113) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-113	-113	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 48.2% vs 17% min; cushion +2.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chase Burns: K/9 11.1, proj 6.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .619
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.6%, active roster 19.8%/6 hitters, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.7%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.58
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Over 4.5 (+112) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+112	-142	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 29.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.6% / under 55.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jacob Lopez: K/9 9.2, proj 5.8K over 6.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 17.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
K% trend: support +5.2 ppts (recent 27.3% vs season 22.1%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Brayan Bello Under 4.5 (-115) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	-
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	4.5	-108	-124	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-111	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.98K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.6% / under 50.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Brayan Bello: K/9 6.0, proj 3.5K over 4.2 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Cutter (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Cutter: 19.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, L7 26.6%, season 25.2% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 3.18
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 (+112) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 -157 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 7.1 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 -157 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	6.5	-157	+118	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	+112	-145	-
DK	7.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 19.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 11.7, proj 8.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Sweeper (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 200 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 200 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, active roster 21.4%/7 hitters, BVP 26.5%/200 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 7.46
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 34.4% vs season 30.0%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesús Luzardo Over 7.5 (+115) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 19.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Jesús Luzardo: K/9 11.7, proj 8.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Sweeper (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 200 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 200 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, active roster 21.4%/7 hitters, BVP 26.5%/200 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 7.46
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 34.4% vs season 30.0%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.7% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (+102) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 7.3 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+115	-150	Recommended
DK	7.5	+102	-131	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.8K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 17.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.6% / under 53.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.2, proj 8.8K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 33.4% | put-away% 24.5% | xwOBA 0.257 | top pitch: Changeup (50% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 8.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (-133) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-133	+103	-
BetRivers	5.5	-120	-112	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-133	+105	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.9% / under 46.1%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Eury Perez: K/9 9.3, proj 6.2K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 69 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .194 | OPS .695
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 69 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 26.1%/69 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 (+101) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+101	-129	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.70K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Nick Pivetta: K/9 10.9, proj 5.2K over 4.0 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/4 start(s); outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.212 | top pitch: Sweeper (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .448
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 3.5 (+107) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	3.5	+105	-139	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	+107	-137	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Grant Holmes: K/9 6.3, proj 4.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .215 | OPS .695
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.9%, L7 18.5%, season 22.0%, active roster 20.4%/8 hitters, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.85
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.9 ppts (recent 12.6% vs season 18.5%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-147) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	-
BetOnline	5.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+115	-147	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.62K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Logan Webb: K/9 7.0, proj 4.9K over 5.6 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.76
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 4.5 (-132) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	+104	-132	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.3% / under 53.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.9, proj 4.2K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Sweeper (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Sweeper: 26.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .237 | OPS .661
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.1%/7 hitters, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.82
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jake Irvin Over 4.5 (+122) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jake Irvin: K/9 9.3, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (+101) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+109	-141	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+101	-129	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.6, proj 3.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.78
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-161) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -161

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 4.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	-
BetOnline	4.5	-147	+114	-
BetRivers	4.5	-150	+112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+126	-161	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.20
Trevor Rogers: K/9 9.1, proj 5.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .853
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, active roster 18.2%/7 hitters, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
K% trend: support +6.7 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 21.9%, proj adj +3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Joey Cantillo Under 5.5 (+123) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +123

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+140	-200	-
BetOnline	5.5	-154	+119	-
BetRivers	5.5	-148	+110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	-157	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-146	+114	-
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Joey Cantillo: K/9 9.3, proj 5.4K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 17.1% | AVG .172 | OPS .521
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.0%, L7 25.8%, season 24.5%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.21
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Boyd Under 4.5 (-150) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 6.2, proj 4.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.1%/7 hitters (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.5 ppts (recent 13.2% vs season 18.7%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Boyd Under 4.5 (-154) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	4.5	+126	-164	-
DK	4.5	+121	-154	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Matthew Boyd: K/9 6.2, proj 4.5K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 124 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.9%/6 hitters, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Milwaukee Brewers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.5 ppts (recent 13.2% vs season 18.7%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 4.5 (+125) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +125

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 3.9 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	Recommended
FanDuel	3.5	-172	+134	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	+125	-159	Selected
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.0% / under 58.0%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.75
Troy Melton: K/9 7.1, proj 4.5K over 5.8 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 48 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .289 | OPS 1.044
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, BVP 14.6%/48 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 12 play(s) (A 1 | C 11)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Grayson Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-161) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6888773125575838 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .292 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 7.4%, L7 8.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/24 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (+103) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.928666643315787 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 11.5%, L7 12.5%, season 9.9%, BVP 0.0%/21 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jonah Tong Over 1.5 (-189) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 61.2% / Under 38.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -189 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.745699113581465 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 3.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.2% / under 38.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jonah Tong: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .133 | OPS .388
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.5%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.0%, L7 8.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/3 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-121) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7039547655552578 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.9 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 200 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.5%/200 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 6.2%, L7 7.3%, season 7.7%, BVP 7.0%/200 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Under 1.5 (-198) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3003974120860056 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.4 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.9% / under 62.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.5%, L7 6.3%, season 8.3%, BVP 5.4%/37 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Over 1.5 (-178) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6951226586954717 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 8.4%, L7 10.0%, season 7.3%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-175) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.20664780343218 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.1 IP (BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 69 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .194 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 26.1%/69 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 6.7%, L7 8.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 8.7%/69 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 (+168) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +168

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6327693228858706 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.0 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/4 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 35.0% / under 65.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .448
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.4%, L7 10.6%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.7%/30 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/4 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5785262989777042 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 48 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .289 | OPS 1.044
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, BVP 14.6%/48 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.8%, L7 9.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.1%/48 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (-182) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3714804621313146 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.6% / under 60.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.7%, L7 8.3%, season 7.4%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (+104) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5517386894034755 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .237 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 10.4%, L7 11.3%, season 10.7%, BVP 7.3%/41 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trevor Rogers Under 1.5 (-225) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4615898882544347 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.4 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 35.1% / under 64.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.4%, L7 6.5%, season 9.4%, BVP 12.8%/47 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (B 1 | C 7)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-147) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .292 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Irvin Under 5.5 (-136) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	+102	-136	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.51, BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Over 5.5 (+109) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+109	-144	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (-141) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Troy Melton Under 5.5 (-155) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+116	-155	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.15, BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 48 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .289 | OPS 1.044
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, BVP 14.6%/48 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-134) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-154) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-170	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	Recommended
DK	5.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matt Boyd Over 5.5 (+105) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-206) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -206

Selected market: Over 63.0% / Under 37.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-220	+155	-
Caesars	17.5	-218	+158	-
DK	17.5	-206	+153	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-205	+148	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-230	+160	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-215	+145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 20.482 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 17.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.76 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.0% / under 37.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.3%, L7 7.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.80 | Season Avg 18.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 18.5 (+122) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	18.5	+125	-165	-
DK	18.5	+122	-162	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+128	-174	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 21.078999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 13.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.96 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 200 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.5%/200 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 6.2%, L7 7.3%, season 7.7%, BVP 7.0%/200 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.90 | Season Avg 18.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.72 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesús Luzardo Over 18.5 (+125) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.078999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 13.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.96 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 200 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.5%/200 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 6.2%, L7 7.3%, season 7.7%, BVP 7.0%/200 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.90 | Season Avg 18.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.72 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matthew Boyd Under 17.5 (-113) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-110	-125	-
DK	17.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	+100	-136	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.222 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.38 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.4%, L7 11.2%, season 10.7%, BVP 8.1%/124 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 17.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matt Boyd Under 17.5 (-120) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.287 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.38 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 10.4%, L7 11.3%, season 10.7% (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 17.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 (+133) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +133

Selected market: Over 59.8% / Under 40.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-165	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+126	-
DK	17.5	-177	+133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-160	+122	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.849999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.00 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.8% / under 40.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .256 | OPS .853
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.4%, L7 6.5%, season 9.4%, BVP 12.8%/47 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 16.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Under 17.5 (+141) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +141

Selected market: Over 61.2% / Under 38.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-190	+138	-
DK	17.5	-189	+141	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-180	+134	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.866 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.83 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 61.2% / under 38.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.5%, L7 6.3%, season 8.3%, BVP 5.4%/37 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/25 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-111) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-110	-121	Recommended
DK	17.5	-111	-120	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.850999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.08 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.1%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8% (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.70 | Season Avg 17.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-131) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-125	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-131	-101	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.676 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.06 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 48 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .289 | OPS 1.044
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, BVP 14.6%/48 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.8%, L7 9.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.1%/48 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (-104) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.43, ERA 3.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-164) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.55 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 2.96, ERA 2.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 200 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .688
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.5%/200 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-131) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.51, ERA 3.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .215 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.9%, L7 18.5%, season 22.0%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Over 2.5 (-101) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 4.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-161) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+121	-161	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.46 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 2.81)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 48 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 2.1% | AVG .289 | OPS 1.044
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, BVP 14.6%/48 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (+103) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+103	-136	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.71 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 4.62)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-174) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 69 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .194 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 26.1%/69 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-130) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.08 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 5.20)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 24 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .292 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 33.3%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Irvin Over 2.5 (-134) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.41 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.66, ERA 5.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 (-116) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 4.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/4 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .448
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (-108) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.27 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.76, ERA 2.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Under 2.5 (-115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.91 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.08, ERA 3.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Over 2.5 (-119) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 5.00, ERA 3.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 7/23 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -1.09 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

18 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	75.7	58.5	100.0	6	Sweeper (41% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.212, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	73.2	75.0	79.0	6	Changeup (50% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 33.4%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	70.6	71.2	74.5	4	Sweeper (47% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	65.7	67.6	68.0	4	Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	58.6	51.8	64.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	57.1	62.4	52.5	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	56.2	61.4	52.5	6	Slider (42% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	55.3	52.3	61.0	6	Slider (34% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	52.4	47.7	57.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	52.3	54.1	52.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jonah Tong	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	48.3	38.3	53.0	4	Changeup (30% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 11.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	47.2	43.6	50.5	6	Sweeper (27% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	46.4	42.3	52.0	5	Changeup (27% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	45.6	50.9	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	42.8	44.6	39.0	5	Slider (39% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	40.8	47.2	31.0	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	40.3	46.6	32.5	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	35.2	38.3	31.5	7	Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

18 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.9%	6.0	4.8	6.0	101	deep	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	16.5%	4.6	4.9	4.8	77	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	L	24.2%	5.6	5.5	5.6	94	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	16.8%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	29.1%	5.1	5.6	5.5	86	short	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	L	23.5%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	19.2%	5.5	6.0	5.9	92	normal	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	20.3%	6.0	5.7	5.7	101	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.7%	5.2	4.8	4.9	87	normal	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	24.6%	5.0	5.4	5.3	84	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	L	21.5%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Jonah Tong	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	19.2%	3.1	-	5.2	52	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.1 IP/start
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	L	31.5%	6.3	6.1	6.1	106	deep	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	R	29.2%	4.0	4.0	4.8	67	short	full	100.00	0.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.1%	4.8	6.0	5.8	80	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	R	17.0%	5.3	5.5	5.4	89	normal	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	R	34.2%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	R	22.7%	4.6	4.8	4.7	77	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	17.5	20.5	3.0	17.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.1	2.6	13.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min
Jesús Luzardo	Jesús Luzardo Over	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.1	2.6	13.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min
Matthew Boyd	Matthew Boyd Under	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matt Boyd	Matt Boyd Under	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	16.3	-1.2	6.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.8	-0.7	3.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.8	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	17.9	0.3	2.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes