| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 633 | 55% | -25.88u | 38 | 58% | +0.03u | 298 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 541 | 57% | +5.18u | 28 | 61% | +0.80u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 702 | 56% | -34.91u | 71 | 52% | -8.40u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 476 | 62% | +0.03u | 50 | 72% | +7.08u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 135 | 48% | -14.15u | 6 | 50% | -0.45u | 3 | 67% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | 75.7 | 58.5 | 100.0 | 6 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.212, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics | 73.2 | 75.0 | 79.0 | 6 | Changeup (50% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 33.4%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | 70.6 | 71.2 | 74.5 | 4 | Sweeper (47% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.7 | 67.6 | 68.0 | 4 | Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays | 58.6 | 51.8 | 64.5 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles | 57.1 | 62.4 | 52.5 | 5 | Changeup (39% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | 56.2 | 61.4 | 52.5 | 6 | Slider (42% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | 55.3 | 52.3 | 61.0 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians | 52.4 | 47.7 | 57.5 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.3 | 54.1 | 52.0 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jonah Tong | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 48.3 | 38.3 | 53.0 | 4 | Changeup (30% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 11.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | 47.2 | 43.6 | 50.5 | 6 | Sweeper (27% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | 46.4 | 42.3 | 52.0 | 5 | Changeup (27% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | 45.6 | 50.9 | 41.0 | 6 | Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | 42.8 | 44.6 | 39.0 | 5 | Slider (39% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | 40.8 | 47.2 | 31.0 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres | 40.3 | 46.6 | 32.5 | 6 | Curveball (36% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | 35.2 | 38.3 | 31.5 | 7 | Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 23.9% | 6.0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 16.5% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 77 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 24.2% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 16.8% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 97 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 29.1% | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 23.5% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | R | 19.2% | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 92 | normal | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 20.3% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 101 | deep | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | R | 22.7% | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 87 | normal | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | R | 24.6% | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 84 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | L | 21.5% | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Jonah Tong | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | R | 19.2% | 3.1 | - | 5.2 | 52 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.1 IP/start |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | L | 31.5% | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 106 | deep | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nick Pivetta | San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | R | 29.2% | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 67 | short | full | 100.00 | 0.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 18.1% | 4.8 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 80 | short | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | R | 17.0% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics | R | 34.2% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres | R | 22.7% | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 77 | short | full | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | 17.5 | 20.5 | 3.0 | 17.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min |
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Over | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 21.1 | 2.6 | 13.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min |
| Jesús Luzardo | Jesús Luzardo Over | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 21.1 | 2.6 | 13.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min |
| Matthew Boyd | Matthew Boyd Under | Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | 17.5 | 16.2 | -1.3 | 7.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Matt Boyd | Matt Boyd Under | Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | 17.5 | 16.3 | -1.2 | 6.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Trevor Rogers | Trevor Rogers Under | Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 16.8 | -0.7 | 3.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Logan Webb | Logan Webb Under | St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 16.9 | -0.6 | 3.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.8 | 80 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Noah Cameron | Noah Cameron Over | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.3 | 2.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.7 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Troy Melton | Troy Melton Over | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Jonah Tong Under | MET@MAR | 1:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.4 | +115 | DK Under 4.5 +115 | exact | 25.1% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 102 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather:… | K Prop | Grayson Rodriguez Over | ANG@SOX | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 5.6 | -117 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price | 24.1% | ✓✓!!–! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Cameron Under | DIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -106 | DK Under 5.5 -106 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!!–! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Jacob Lopez Under | JAY@ATH | 10:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -148 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-179); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@ATH | 10:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.7 | -179 | DK Over 1.5 -179 | exact | 78.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-198); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Joey Cantillo Over | GUA@ORI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -198 | DK Over 1.5 -198 | exact | 65.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Jake Irvin Over | NAT@PAD | 5:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -153 | DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact | 45.9% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Grant Holmes Over | BRA@PHI | 1:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -170 | DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact | 33.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -164 | DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact | 28.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Noah Cameron Over | DIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -152 | DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact | 19.4% | ✓!!✓–✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Brayan Bello Under | ANG@SOX | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -147 | DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact | 17.5% | ✓!!✓–✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Webb Over | CAR@GIA | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -159 | DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact | 66.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor Rogers Over | GUA@ORI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -169 | Fanatics Over 1.5 -165 | best price | 60.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Gasser Over | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -168 | DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over | Pitcher Earned R | Brayan Bello Over | ANG@SOX | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -134 | DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!!–! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jonah Tong Over | MET@MAR | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Joey Cantillo Over | GUA@ORI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -164 | DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals | ||||||||||||
| A (Weak) | ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Matchup — posture note at B | K Prop | Noah Cameron Over | DIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.8 | -147 | DK Over 3.5 -147 | exact | 37.5% | ✓✓✓!–✓ | Lean Signal - Small Stake |
| A (Weak) | ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B | Pitcher Walks | Grayson Rodriguez Under | ANG@SOX | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -161 | DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact | 32.4% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Small Stake |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | RED@DOD | 9:11 PM | 4.5 | 6.7 | -113 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -102 | best price | 48.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Jacob Lopez Over | JAY@ATH | 10:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.8 | +112 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +114 | best price | 29.0% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | BRA@PHI | 1:06 PM | 7.5 | 8.9 | +112 | BetRivers Over 6.5 -157 | alt rescue | 19.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 43.7% (1 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Jesús Luzardo Over | BRA@PHI | 1:06 PM | 7.5 | 8.9 | +115 | Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | exact | 19.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@ATH | 10:06 PM | 7.5 | 8.8 | +102 | Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | best price | 17.8% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Pivetta Over | NAT@PAD | 5:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | +101 | DK Over 4.5 +101 | exact | 15.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | BRA@PHI | 1:06 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | +107 | DK Over 3.5 +107 | exact | 13.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Webb Under | CAR@GIA | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -147 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price | 11.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robert Gasser Under | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -132 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -130 | best price | 6.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Irvin Over | NAT@PAD | 5:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +122 | DK Over 4.5 +122 | exact | 5.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael McGreevy Over | CAR@GIA | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | +101 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +112 | best price | 4.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor Rogers Under | GUA@ORI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -161 | DK Under 5.5 -161 | exact | 3.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Joey Cantillo Under | GUA@ORI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | +123 | DK Under 5.5 +123 | exact | 1.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matt Boyd Under | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -150 | Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -150 | exact | 1.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Under | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -154 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price | 1.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Troy Melton Over | TWI@TIG | 3:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +125 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -170 | alt rescue | 0.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@ATH | 10:06 PM | 17.5 | 20.5 | -206 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -205 | best price | 17.0% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesus Luzardo Over | BRA@PHI | 1:06 PM | 18.5 | 21.1 | +122 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +128 | best price | 13.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesús Luzardo Over | BRA@PHI | 1:06 PM | 18.5 | 21.1 | +125 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +125 | exact | 13.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Matthew Boyd Under | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.2 | -113 | DK Under 17.5 -113 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Matt Boyd Under | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.3 | -120 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -120 | exact | 6.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Trevor Rogers Under | GUA@ORI | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 16.8 | +133 | DK Under 17.5 +133 | exact | 3.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Webb Under | CAR@GIA | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.9 | +141 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +145 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Noah Cameron Over | DIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -111 | Caesars Over 17.5 -110 | best price | 2.0% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Troy Melton Over | TWI@TIG | 3:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -131 | Caesars Over 17.5 -125 | best price | 1.0% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jake Irvin Under | NAT@PAD | 5:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -136 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael McGreevy Over | CAR@GIA | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +109 | Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Boyd Under | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -141 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Troy Melton Under | TWI@TIG | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -155 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Logan Webb Under | CAR@GIA | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -134 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -130 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor Rogers Under | GUA@ORI | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -154 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matt Boyd Over | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +105 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Chase Burns Over | RED@DOD | 9:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +103 | DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact | 28.6% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Jonah Tong Over | MET@MAR | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -189 | DK Over 1.5 -189 | exact | 16.4% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Jesus Luzardo Over | BRA@PHI | 1:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -121 | DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact | 13.6% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Logan Webb Under | CAR@GIA | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -198 | DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Michael McGreevy Over | CAR@GIA | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -178 | DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact | 13.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Eury Perez Under | MET@MAR | 1:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -175 | DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact | 11.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Nick Pivetta Over | NAT@PAD | 5:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +168 | DK Over 1.5 +168 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Troy Melton Over | TWI@TIG | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +120 | DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact | 5.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jacob Lopez Under | JAY@ATH | 10:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -182 | DK Under 2.5 -182 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Robert Gasser Over | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +104 | DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact | 3.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Trevor Rogers Under | GUA@ORI | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -225 | DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact | 2.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Chase Burns Over | RED@DOD | 9:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -104 | Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price | 20.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Jesus Luzardo Over | BRA@PHI | 1:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -164 | DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Grant Holmes Under | BRA@PHI | 1:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -131 | DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@BRE | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -101 | DK Over 2.5 -101 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Troy Melton Under | TWI@TIG | 3:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -161 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Michael McGreevy Over | CAR@GIA | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +103 | Fanatics Over 2.5 +105 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Under | MET@MAR | 1:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -174 | DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Grayson Rodriguez Over | ANG@SOX | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -130 | DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Irvin Over | NAT@PAD | 5:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -134 | DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Pivetta Over | NAT@PAD | 5:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -116 | DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dylan Cease Under | JAY@ATH | 10:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -108 | Fanatics Under 1.5 -105 | best price | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Cameron Under | DIA@ROY | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -115 | DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!!–! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob Lopez Over | JAY@ATH | 10:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -119 | DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Brayan Bello Under | ANG@SOX | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 3.5 | -115 | DK Under 4.5 -115 | exact | 21.9% | ✓✗!✓–✓ | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eury Perez Over | MET@MAR | 1:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -133 | BetRivers Over 5.5 -120 | best price | 11.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Grayson Rodriguez Under | ANG@SOX | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -147 | DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!✓–✓ | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context