MLB Bets 2026-09-06

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	114W–68L–0P	63%	+9.51 u	Last 14 days • 182 settled
Grade A	12W–8L–0P	60%	+0.12 u
Grade B	102W–60L–0P	63%	+9.39 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3832W–2404L–8P	61%	-259.05 u	All-time • 6244 settled
Grade A	278W–219L–0P	56%	-11.99 u
Grade B	3552W–2176L–8P	62%	-240.61 u

107 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	K Prop	Aaron Nola	5.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	K Prop	Cesar Perdomo	3.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	K Prop	Ian Seymour	5.5	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	K Prop	Payton Tolle	6.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	K Prop	Spencer Arrighetti	3.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryan Woo	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Gerrit Cole	2.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	2.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Justin Wrobleski	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Kyle Harrison	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Payton Tolle	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Tanner Gordon	3.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Earned Run	Walbert Urena	2.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Hits Allow	Tanner Gordon	6.5	-106	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Bryan Woo	0.5	-248	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Christian Scott	1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Eduardo Rodriguez	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Justin Wrobleski	0.5	-228	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Bradish	1.5	-190	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Leahy	0.5	-183	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Randy Dobnak	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Spencer Arrighetti	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Tanner Gordon	0.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Mahle	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-06	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Phillips	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-05	K Prop	Andrew Abbott	3.5	-131	-	WIN	+0.763	Andrew Abbott: 5.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	627	55%	-23.20u	36	61%	+2.22u	296	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	540	58%	+6.18u	28	64%	+2.51u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	693	56%	-31.03u	64	55%	-4.74u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	464	62%	+1.20u	38	76%	+8.24u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	135	48%	-14.15u	6	50%	-0.45u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 6 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 627, 14d N 36	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 540, 14d N 28	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 848 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 235 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 815 pitcher(s), 3628 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 602 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1725 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 420 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, Athletics, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Toronto Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 30 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 362 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 27 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 28 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 28 line(s)/15 game(s); Earned Runs 28 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 139, bovada_direct 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 400 market side(s) checked \| 400 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 651 \| batter bats 431 \| batter hand splits 140 \| pitcher HR splits 50 \| batter pitch-type 602 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 217 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	12:10 PM	-163	+135	-1.5 (+100)	1.5 (-120)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:10 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+152)	1.5 (-185)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	1:35 PM	-142	+118	-1.5 (+122)	1.5 (-147)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:35 PM	+163	-199	1.5 (-135)	-1.5 (+112)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	1:40 PM	+139	-168	1.5 (-158)	-1.5 (+131)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	1:40 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	1:41 PM	-149	+123	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	2:10 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+154)	1.5 (-187)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	2:11 PM	-120	+100	-1.5 (+128)	1.5 (-155)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+159)	1.5 (-194)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies	3:10 PM	-135	+112	-1.5 (+110)	1.5 (-132)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	4:10 PM	+161	-196	1.5 (-132)	-1.5 (+110)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	4:10 PM	-111	-108	-1.5 (+150)	1.5 (-182)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	6:20 PM	+124	-150	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+183	-225	1.5 (-123)	-1.5 (+102)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 26 Grade B | 70 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Aaron Nola Over	BRA@PHI	1:10 PM	5.5	6.7	-117	DK Over 5.5 -117 \| exact	21.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153	K Prop	Payton Tolle Over	SOX@ORI	1:35 PM	6.5	7.7	-153	FanDuel Over 6.5 -130 \| best price	18.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

Pitcher Outs - Eduardo Rodriguez Under

Selected line 18.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 18

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Kyle Bradish Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.83

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (-117) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-128	-101	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 21.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Aaron Nola: K/9 10.3, proj 6.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Curveball (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 422 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .295 | OPS .906
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 422 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.1%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8%, active roster 21.4%/7 hitters, BVP 24.2%/422 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.61
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
K% trend: support +6.4 ppts (recent 31.0% vs season 24.6%, proj adj +3.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Payton Tolle Over 6.5 (-153) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-153	+120	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-130	+102	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 18.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Payton Tolle: K/9 10.5, proj 7.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 22.8% | xwOBA 0.257 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 24.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 35 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .290 | OPS .855
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.6%, L7 23.7%, season 24.3%, BVP 28.6%/35 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.39
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 32.2% vs season 27.7%, proj adj +2.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153 -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (26 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Cesar Perdomo Over 3.5 (-150) diff 97.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 97.1% vs 17% min; cushion +3.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Cesar Perdomo: K/9 8.5, proj 6.9K over 5.8 IP (default 5.8 IP; elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 36.1% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (37% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.3%, L7 20.5%, season 22.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150 -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

⚠ ⚠ High K diff 97% (≥90%) — verify K projection

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Walbert Urena Over 4.5 (-153) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-145	+112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-153	+120	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	Recommended
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 35.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Walbert Urena: K/9 9.1, proj 6.1K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.9%, L7 24.6%, season 24.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Spencer Arrighetti Over 3.5 (-130) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-128	-101	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
DK	3.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-102	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 35.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Spencer Arrighetti: K/9 8.8, proj 4.7K over 4.5 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .756
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 16.2%, season 20.7%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -130, expected IP 4.5 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 5.5 (-122) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-122	-104	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 29.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Ian Seymour: K/9 11.5, proj 7.1K over 5.3 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 30% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .486
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.5%, L7 18.5%, season 22.6%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/42 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 3.29
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +3.31 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Gordon Under 6.5 (-106) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	-110	-
DK	6.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.5 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.14 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 4.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .600
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.8%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 12 play(s) (B 12)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kyle Leahy Over 0.5 (-183) diff 147.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -183

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -183 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.236726740087832 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.5 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 33 PA | K% 42.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .606
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 21.9%, L7 22.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 42.4%/33 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 8.1%, L7 7.4%, season 8.4%, BVP 0.0%/33 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-183) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Justin Wrobleski Over 0.5 (-228) diff 146.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 65.2% / Under 34.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -228 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.2305543452103784 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 146.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.0 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 65.2% / under 34.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 12 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .700 | OPS 2.050
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 27.4%, L7 24.2%, season 21.7% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 8.4%, L7 9.5%, season 9.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-228) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Bryan Woo Over 0.5 (-248) diff 139.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 66.8% / Under 33.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -248 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.195106346486833 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.4 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 66.9% / under 33.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 67 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .203 | OPS .551
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 17.9%, L7 22.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 29.8%/67 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.3%, L7 7.9%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.5%/67 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 22/26 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 10/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-248); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tanner Gordon Over 0.5 (-148) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.9255419296102643 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.18 over 4.8 IP (BB% 4.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .600
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.8%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 8.5%, L7 6.1%, season 8.3%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Spencer Arrighetti Over 1.5 (-170) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3831778841958737 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.54 over 4.3 IP (BB% 12.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .756
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 16.2%, season 20.7%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.3%, L7 7.3%, season 8.3%, BVP 12.5%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-142) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1812205690393833 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.6 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 8.4%, L7 11.7%, season 7.4% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kyle Bradish Over 1.5 (-190) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.3% / Under 38.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1618490748202497 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 5.2 IP (BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.3% / under 38.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 69 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .191 | OPS .615
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.3%, L7 21.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 30.4%/69 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 7.3%, L7 7.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 7.2%/69 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-190); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tyler Mahle Over 1.5 (-150) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0182318606470013 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 114 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .260 | OPS .665
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.0%, L7 18.3%, season 22.1%, BVP 21.9%/114 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.5%, L7 10.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.7%/114 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-166) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9856100091720952 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.2 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.3% / under 41.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.300
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 21.2%, L7 18.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.2%, L7 10.5%, season 10.7%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/33 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-172) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9140436404874297 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.7 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 105 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .309 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 18.1%/105 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.7%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.7%/105 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-172) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Randy Dobnak Over 1.5 (-126) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8992261920940223 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.0 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 30 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.5%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 20.0%/30 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 6.5%, L7 10.4%, season 7.5%, BVP 6.7%/30 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-160) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8950759193740143 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.0 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 47 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .204 | OPS .643
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.3%, L7 18.1%, season 18.5%, BVP 29.8%/47 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 9.4%, L7 6.6%, season 8.4%, BVP 4.3%/47 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/29 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 9 play(s) (B 9)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Over 1.5 (-136) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.77 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 5.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 12 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .700 | OPS 2.050
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 27.4%, L7 24.2%, season 21.7% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Over 1.5 (-130) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.57 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 3.77)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 67 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .203 | OPS .551
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 17.9%, L7 22.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 29.8%/67 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-139) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 4.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Harrison Under 2.5 (-162) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.34 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.21, ERA 4.07)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 44 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .243 | OPS .931
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 23.6%, L7 26.9%, season 25.4%, BVP 27.3%/44 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-162) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Gordon Under 3.5 (-132) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 31.4% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.54 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 4.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .600
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.8%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-168) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.07 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.64, ERA 3.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 35 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .290 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.6%, L7 23.7%, season 24.3%, BVP 28.6%/35 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Under 2.5 (-164) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.51 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.46, ERA 4.18)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .486
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.5%, L7 18.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/42 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.24 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Walbert Urena Under 2.5 (-149) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.64 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.9%, L7 24.6%, season 24.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Under 2.5 (-170) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.23 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.56, ERA 3.18)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.1% / under 58.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 78 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .247 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 20.8%, L7 25.1%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.6%/78 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (70 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 21 play(s) (B 5 | C 16)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 3.5 (+112) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	+112	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 39.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 8.4, proj 4.9K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.0%, L7 20.8%, season 20.6%, active roster 19.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.10
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 (+100) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	Recommended
DK	4.5	+100	-127	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 27.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Tyler Mahle: K/9 9.1, proj 5.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 22.4% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Split-Finger (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 114 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .260 | OPS .665
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 114 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 19.0%, L7 18.3%, season 22.1%, active roster 20.4%/8 hitters, BVP 21.9%/114 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.26
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
K% trend: support +4.2 ppts (recent 27.4% vs season 23.2%, proj adj +2.1%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (-147) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-139	+107	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-138	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 24.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Tyler Phillips: K/9 8.5, proj 4.4K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.300
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 21.2%, L7 18.8%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.2%/7 hitters, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/33 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season
K% trend: support +8.2 ppts (recent 27.3% vs season 19.1%, proj adj +4.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bailey Ober Over 3.5 (-140) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 6:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	-137	+104	-
DK	3.5	-140	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bailey Ober: K/9 6.0, proj 3.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Sweeper (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 91 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .183 | OPS .609
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 91 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 24.7%, L7 23.6%, season 23.9%, active roster 26.4%/6 hitters, BVP 20.9%/91 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.7%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.76
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Peter Lambert Under 4.5 (+103) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-132	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Peter Lambert: K/9 9.0, proj 4.1K over 5.1 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 44 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .643
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 16.4%, L7 24.4%, season 19.4%, active roster 16.0%/6 hitters, BVP 15.9%/44 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 16.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 24.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/24 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.46
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gavin Williams Over 7.5 (-115) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 7.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 7.3 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 7.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	-111	-116	Recommended
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-115	-
DK	7.5	-115	-110	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 35.6% vs 17% min; cushion +2.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.5% / under 49.5%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Gavin Williams: K/9 13.2, proj 10.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Sweeper (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 92 PA | K% 38.0% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .202 | OPS .593
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 92 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 22.4%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8%, BVP 38.0%/92 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.40 | Season Avg 7.75
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +1.65 vs season
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 36.8% vs season 33.0%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Bradish Over 4.5 (-136) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-127	-102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-136	+107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.4% / under 45.6%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Kyle Bradish: K/9 7.8, proj 5.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 69 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .191 | OPS .615
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 69 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.3%, L7 21.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 30.4%/69 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 (+100) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
BetRivers	5.5	+102	-136	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+100	-128	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 16.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.91K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Gerrit Cole: K/9 9.5, proj 6.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Slider: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 78 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .247 | OPS .762
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 20.8%, L7 25.1%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.6%/78 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.11
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Jobe Under 3.5 (-144) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	-
BetOnline	3.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Jackson Jobe: K/9 8.0, proj 3.1K over 4.8 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.4% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .875
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.5%, split 15.7%, L7 16.9%, season 21.3%, active roster 18.2%/7 hitters, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 0.84x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Cleveland Guardians 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 16.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/5 (20%) | L20 1/5 (20%) | Season 1/5 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 1/5 under 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Under 6.5 (-106) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.3 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-210	+155	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	6.5	-122	-108	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-135	+105	-
DK	6.5	-120	-106	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-136	+106	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 10.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Bryan Woo: K/9 8.9, proj 5.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 67 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .203 | OPS .551
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 17.9%, L7 22.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 29.8%/67 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.73
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Under 5.5 (-133) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	-
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+105	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.1% / under 53.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Christian Scott: K/9 10.6, proj 5.1K over 4.9 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Sweeper: 24.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.65
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Over 4.5 (+102) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Brady Singer: K/9 7.1, proj 4.8K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Sweeper (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 172 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .255 | OPS .728
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 172 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 21.6%, active roster 22.0%/6 hitters, BVP 23.8%/172 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Paul Skenes Under 7.5 (-154) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 7.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 7.17 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 7.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 6.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	6.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	7.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Bovada Direct	7.5	+120	-160	-
DK	7.5	+121	-154	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Paul Skenes: K/9 10.0, proj 7.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 34.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | K% 41.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.8%, split 24.9%, L7 28.6%, season 25.3%, BVP 41.2%/17 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.39
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 7.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.4 ppts (recent 21.5% vs season 28.9%, proj adj -3.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Harrison Over 6.5 (-111) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	6.5	-114	-114	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-111	-114	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	-111	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.7% / under 50.3%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Kyle Harrison: K/9 11.2, proj 6.9K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.3% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Slurve (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slurve: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 44 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .243 | OPS .931
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 23.6%, L7 26.9%, season 25.4%, BVP 27.3%/44 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.91
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Clay Holmes Under 4.5 (+113) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +113

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	-
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-145	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.8% / under 44.2%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Clay Holmes: K/9 6.5, proj 4.2K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Cutter (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Cutter: 16.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 56 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .196 | OPS .539
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 56 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 14.9%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.8%/56 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Under 4.5 (-133) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+104	-133	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 8.3, proj 4.3K over 5.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 12 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .700 | OPS 2.050
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 27.4%, L7 24.2%, season 21.7% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 4.73
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 23.5% vs season 19.8%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 97 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Gordon Under 3.5 (+122) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	3.5	-150	+112	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-156	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tanner Gordon: K/9 6.8, proj 3.4K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .600
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.8%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.60
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 (+108) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+126	-162	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 10.1, proj 5.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 24.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 47 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .204 | OPS .643
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.3%, L7 18.1%, season 18.5%, active roster 15.6%/6 hitters, BVP 29.8%/47 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 16.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 18.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.83
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Under 5.5 (-112) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	5.5	-114	-117	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-114	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael King: K/9 7.8, proj 5.4K over 5.9 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 48 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .262 | OPS .735
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 20.4%, L7 25.0%, season 24.7%, BVP 22.9%/48 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Under 5.5 (-117) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetRivers	5.5	+100	-132	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-109	-117	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gage Jump: K/9 9.5, proj 5.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .574
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.3%, L7 24.0%, season 23.3%, active roster 21.2%/7 hitters, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 4.5 (-147) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -147

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+115	-147	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 7.4, proj 4.5K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Changeup (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 27.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 105 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .309 | OPS .785
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 105 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.0%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, active roster 18.8%/7 hitters, BVP 18.1%/105 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.36
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
K% trend: support +6.4 ppts (recent 24.2% vs season 17.8%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 (-126) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.25 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 16.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	16.5	-135	-105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
DK	17.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	+108	-144	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 14.649000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 16.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.88 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.25 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 82, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 82
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 47 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .204 | OPS .643
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.3%, L7 18.1%, season 18.5%, BVP 29.8%/47 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 9.4%, L7 6.6%, season 8.4%, BVP 4.3%/47 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/29 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 16.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.85 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.85 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Over 18.5 (+154) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 18.17 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	17.5	-194	+142	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+155	-220	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+154	-207	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 19.386999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 4.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.56 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 36.9% / under 63.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 18.17 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 78 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .247 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 20.8%, L7 25.1%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.6%/78 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.9%, L7 8.9%, season 9.3%, BVP 3.9%/78 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 17.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Aaron Nola Under 17.5 (-120) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.682 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.79 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 422 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .295 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.2%/422 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 7.8%, L7 8.5%, season 7.8%, BVP 7.3%/422 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 15.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Payton Tolle Over 17.5 (-119) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-108	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.242 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.64 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 35 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .290 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.6%, L7 23.7%, season 24.3%, BVP 28.6%/35 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 7.9%, L7 8.2%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.6%/35 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gavin Williams Over 17.5 (-136) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
DK	17.5	-136	+103	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+102	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.833000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.80 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 76)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 76
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 92 PA | K% 38.0% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .202 | OPS .593
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 22.4%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8%, BVP 38.0%/92 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.5%, L7 6.5%, season 9.1%, BVP 8.7%/92 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Over 17.5 (-200) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.4% / Under 37.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-200	+150	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-200	+149	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.767 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.4% / under 37.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 67 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .203 | OPS .551
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 17.9%, L7 22.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 29.8%/67 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.3%, L7 7.9%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.5%/67 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 17.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Over 17.5 (-166) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
DK	17.5	-166	+125	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.709 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.33 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 48 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .262 | OPS .735
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 20.4%, L7 25.0%, season 24.7%, BVP 22.9%/48 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.3%, L7 7.7%, season 9.7%, BVP 12.5%/48 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Clay Holmes Over 17.5 (-109) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-109	-122	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.588 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 56 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .196 | OPS .539
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 14.9%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.8%/56 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 9.9%, L7 9.1%, season 9.2%, BVP 16.1%/56 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 18.5 (-167) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 18 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 17.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	17.5	-152	+114	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	18.5	+130	-170	-
DK	18.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.488 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 0.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.39 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 18 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 105 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .309 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 18.1%/105 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 8.7%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.7%/105 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 18.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Randy Dobnak Under 6.5 (-144) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+105	-145	-
DK	6.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.6 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 13.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.46, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 30 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.5%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 20.0%/30 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/11 (82%) | Season 9/11 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Over 5.5 (-119) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.19 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.49, BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 172 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .255 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.8%/172 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-150) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 105 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .309 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 18.1%/105 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Aaron Nola Under 5.5 (-152) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 422 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .295 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.2%/422 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 (-156) Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+110	-
DK	5.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.52, BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 69 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .191 | OPS .615
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.3%, L7 21.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 30.4%/69 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jackson Jobe Over 1.5 (-163) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.784988211601855 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 16.2%, split 15.7%, L7 16.9%, season 21.3%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 0.83x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.4%, L7 7.1%, season 9.4%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-199) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -199 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 62.3% / Under 37.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -199 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7407717825658309 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.3% / under 37.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 92 PA | K% 38.0% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .202 | OPS .593
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 22.4%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8%, BVP 38.0%/92 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.5%, L7 6.5%, season 9.1%, BVP 8.7%/92 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Aaron Nola Over 1.5 (-130) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7289230282077683 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 422 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .295 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.2%/422 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 7.8%, L7 8.5%, season 7.8%, BVP 7.3%/422 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-111) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.70512142799027 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 35 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .290 | OPS .855
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.6%, L7 23.7%, season 24.3%, BVP 28.6%/35 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 7.9%, L7 8.2%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.6%/35 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gerrit Cole Under 1.5 (-179) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.306447719784857 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.2 outs/6.1 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 78 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .247 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 20.8%, L7 25.1%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.6%/78 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 9.9%, L7 8.9%, season 9.3%, BVP 3.9%/78 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (-150) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.201954099721905 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.9 IP (BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 44 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .643
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 16.4%, L7 24.4%, season 19.4%, BVP 15.9%/44 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.3%, L7 8.4%, season 8.8%, BVP 9.1%/44 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Walbert Urena Over 2.5 (+109) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.777032602467155 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.52 over 4.8 IP (BB% 12.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.9%, L7 24.6%, season 24.4% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 10.5%, L7 11.1%, season 9.2% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brady Singer Over 1.5 (-140) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.662071120699547 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 172 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .255 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.8%/172 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.4%, L7 9.9%, season 10.6%, BVP 7.6%/172 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Clay Holmes Under 2.5 (-177) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -177 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2411791184134713 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.5 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.2% / under 59.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 56 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .196 | OPS .539
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 14.9%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.8%/56 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 9.9%, L7 9.1%, season 9.2%, BVP 16.1%/56 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/14 (79%) | Season 11/14 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (-145) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.296609641144419 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 4.9 IP (BB% 11.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .574
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.3%, L7 24.0%, season 23.3%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 10.1%, L7 10.6%, season 9.1%, BVP 0.0%/15 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Paul Skenes Under 1.5 (-149) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3797412001364995 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | K% 41.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 27.8%, split 24.9%, L7 28.6%, season 25.3%, BVP 41.2%/17 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 11.5%, L7 5.0%, season 8.2%, BVP 0.0%/17 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kyle Harrison Under 1.5 (-101) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.4539335132347042 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.6 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 44 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .243 | OPS .931
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 23.6%, L7 26.9%, season 25.4%, BVP 27.3%/44 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 12.1%, L7 8.5%, season 9.5%, BVP 11.4%/44 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bailey Ober Over 1.5 (+105) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 6:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5360572280110758 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.0 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 91 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .183 | OPS .609
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.7%, L7 23.6%, season 23.9%, BVP 20.9%/91 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.0%, L7 10.2%, season 9.4%, BVP 8.8%/91 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (-144) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4495041816562817 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.0%, L7 20.8%, season 20.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 9.7%, L7 11.7%, season 9.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael King Over 2.5 (+128) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.537776759034408 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.7 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 48 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .262 | OPS .735
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 20.4%, L7 25.0%, season 24.7%, BVP 22.9%/48 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.3%, L7 7.7%, season 9.7%, BVP 12.5%/48 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ian Seymour Under 1.5 (-126) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4988208495660857 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.0 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .486
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.5%, L7 18.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.0%, L7 8.7%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 33/42 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 19 play(s) (C 19)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-110) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.34 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.32, ERA 4.13)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 17 PA | K% 41.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 27.8%, split 24.9%, L7 28.6%, season 25.3%, BVP 41.2%/17 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-121) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.29 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 2.80, ERA 4.43)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 92 PA | K% 38.0% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .202 | OPS .593
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 22.4%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8%, BVP 38.0%/92 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Clay Holmes Over 1.5 (-159) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.95 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.60, ERA 1.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 56 PA | K% 26.8% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .196 | OPS .539
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 14.9%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 26.8%/56 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/14 (43%) | Season 6/14 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (-104) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.61 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.80, ERA 3.12)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.0%, L7 20.8%, season 20.6% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Under 2.5 (-161) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.13 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 3.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.300
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 21.2%, L7 18.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 28/33 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Over 1.5 (-141) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.47 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.73, ERA 2.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 33 PA | K% 42.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .242 | OPS .606
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 21.9%, L7 22.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 42.4%/33 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 (-147) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.63 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 3.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 114 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .260 | OPS .665
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.0%, L7 18.3%, season 22.1%, BVP 21.9%/114 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Aaron Nola Under 2.5 (-122) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.84 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.79, ERA 3.99)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 422 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .295 | OPS .906
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.2%/422 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Under 2.5 (-163) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.88, ERA 3.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 47 PA | K% 29.8% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .204 | OPS .643
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.3%, L7 18.1%, season 18.5%, BVP 29.8%/47 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Over 2.5 (-141) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.86 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 5.10)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 172 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .255 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.8%/172 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Dobnak Under 2.5 (+101) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 3.59)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 30 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .250 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 18.5%, L7 17.9%, season 19.2%, BVP 20.0%/30 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bailey Ober Over 2.5 (-120) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 6:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.81 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.88, ERA 4.29)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 91 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .183 | OPS .609
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.7%, L7 23.6%, season 23.9%, BVP 20.9%/91 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (-143) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.39 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.49, ERA 4.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 44 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .250 | OPS .643
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 16.4%, L7 24.4%, season 19.4%, BVP 15.9%/44 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/24 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 (-111) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.49 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 5.02, ERA 5.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 48 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .756
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 16.2%, season 20.7%, BVP 25.0%/48 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Under 2.5 (-161) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.78 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 2.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 48 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .262 | OPS .735
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 20.4%, L7 25.0%, season 24.7%, BVP 22.9%/48 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Bradish Under 2.5 (-150) Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.27 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 4.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 69 PA | K% 30.4% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .191 | OPS .615
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.3%, L7 21.7%, season 21.3%, BVP 30.4%/69 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Jobe Under 2.5 (-163) Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.80 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.32, ERA 4.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 16.2%, split 15.7%, L7 16.9%, season 21.3%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 0.83x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-130) Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.77 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 2.41)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 105 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .309 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 18.1%/105 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (-154) Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.82 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 5.71)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .574
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.3%, L7 24.0%, season 23.3%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	68.1	61.1	79.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 45% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	63.5	61.3	68.0	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	62.1	71.7	56.0	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryan Hudson	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	61.9	51.2	74.0	4	Sweeper (26% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	61.3	62.6	63.5	7	Changeup (39% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	60.4	60.5	62.0	4	Slurve (30% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates	60.0	57.8	64.5	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Cesar Perdomo	San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	56.7	75.9	47.5	3	4-Seam Fastball (37% whiff, 53% usage)	Savant whiff 36.1%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres	56.1	49.9	64.5	5	Slider (27% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	56.1	58.5	56.0	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	55.9	52.3	60.5	7	Changeup (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	54.2	51.6	59.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	53.8	57.2	52.5	6	Sweeper (31% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	53.6	55.6	51.5	6	Curveball (43% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	50.4	52.1	50.0	5	Split-Finger (26% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	49.2	54.0	47.0	5	Slider (36% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	48.8	53.4	44.0	6	Slider (28% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	48.7	49.1	48.0	4	Curveball (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	48.5	54.8	42.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins	47.9	43.6	55.0	6	Cutter (39% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	47.9	51.1	47.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	46.9	45.3	46.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Spencer Arrighetti	Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals	44.8	56.5	34.5	7	Curveball (39% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	43.4	48.3	36.5	5	Sweeper (41% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	42.6	47.5	40.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros	42.4	40.4	45.5	5	Changeup (27% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	41.8	41.6	42.0	7	4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 50% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	41.1	37.6	42.5	6	Sweeper (41% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	39.2	37.6	40.0	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	35.5	37.5	27.5	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros	L	20.0%	6.0	6.0	6.0	101	deep	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	L	23.4%	5.1	5.2	5.1	86	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	24.7%	5.9	5.4	6.0	99	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	19.9%	5.3	5.5	5.5	89	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	L	29.3%	5.9	5.7	6.0	99	normal	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins	R	18.2%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bryan Hudson	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	L	19.5%	1.0	1.1	2.2	17	short	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	17.4%	5.5	5.2	5.3	92	normal	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	R	34.4%	4.5	5.8	6.0	76	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	17.9%	4.8	5.0	5.1	80	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	R	20.2%	4.5	4.7	5.1	76	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.9%	4.5	5.5	5.3	76	short	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	19.0%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	23.4%	4.7	5.3	5.2	79	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	L	21.1%	4.2	6.1	5.7	70	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	R	22.0%	4.1	4.6	4.5	69	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	28.5%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	R	15.8%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	R	26.2%	4.9	4.7	4.8	82	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres	R	25.8%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	R	26.9%	5.6	5.3	5.3	94	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	R	26.3%	4.9	5.3	5.3	82	short	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	R	21.5%	6.2	5.8	5.9	104	deep	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Cesar Perdomo	San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	L	22.7%	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	full	47.50	52.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent_form_unavailable
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	R	24.7%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	R	24.7%	4.4	5.0	4.9	74	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	L	30.3%	5.7	4.8	5.0	96	normal	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	25.2%	4.9	5.3	5.2	82	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Spencer Arrighetti	Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals	R	21.6%	3.3	5.1	4.8	55	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.3 IP/start
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	22.2%	5.1	4.9	5.0	86	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
MacKenzie Gore	MacKenzie Gore Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	17.5	14.6	-2.9	16.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.2	82	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.85 <= 3 min
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Over	New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	18.5	19.4	0.9	4.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Aaron Nola	Aaron Nola Under	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Payton Tolle	Payton Tolle Over	Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	18.2	0.7	4.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Over	Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	6.0	76	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Over	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Over	New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.9	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Clay Holmes	Clay Holmes Over	Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	18.5	18.5	-0.0	0.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes