| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 627 | 55% | -23.20u | 36 | 61% | +2.22u | 296 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 540 | 58% | +6.18u | 28 | 64% | +2.51u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 693 | 56% | -31.03u | 64 | 55% | -4.74u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 464 | 62% | +1.20u | 38 | 76% | +8.24u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 135 | 48% | -14.15u | 6 | 50% | -0.45u | 3 | 67% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 68.1 | 61.1 | 79.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels | 63.5 | 61.3 | 68.0 | 7 | Changeup (38% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | 62.1 | 71.7 | 56.0 | 5 | Sweeper (44% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Hudson | Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | 61.9 | 51.2 | 74.0 | 4 | Sweeper (26% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 61.3 | 62.6 | 63.5 | 7 | Changeup (39% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 60.4 | 60.5 | 62.0 | 4 | Slurve (30% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.0 | 57.8 | 64.5 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Cesar Perdomo | San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets | 56.7 | 75.9 | 47.5 | 3 | 4-Seam Fastball (37% whiff, 53% usage) | Savant whiff 36.1%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres | 56.1 | 49.9 | 64.5 | 5 | Slider (27% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | 56.1 | 58.5 | 56.0 | 6 | Changeup (40% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.9 | 52.3 | 60.5 | 7 | Changeup (34% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | 54.2 | 51.6 | 59.5 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants | 53.8 | 57.2 | 52.5 | 6 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | 53.6 | 55.6 | 51.5 | 6 | Curveball (43% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | 50.4 | 52.1 | 50.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (26% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 49.2 | 54.0 | 47.0 | 5 | Slider (36% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | 48.8 | 53.4 | 44.0 | 6 | Slider (28% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 48.7 | 49.1 | 48.0 | 4 | Curveball (36% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs | 48.5 | 54.8 | 42.5 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins | 47.9 | 43.6 | 55.0 | 6 | Cutter (39% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees | 47.9 | 51.1 | 47.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | 46.9 | 45.3 | 46.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | 44.8 | 56.5 | 34.5 | 7 | Curveball (39% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 43.4 | 48.3 | 36.5 | 5 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies | 42.6 | 47.5 | 40.0 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros | 42.4 | 40.4 | 45.5 | 5 | Changeup (27% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals | 41.8 | 41.6 | 42.0 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 50% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | 41.1 | 37.6 | 42.5 | 6 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 39.2 | 37.6 | 40.0 | 5 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | 35.5 | 37.5 | 27.5 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros | L | 20.0% | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | L | 23.4% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Tyler Mahle | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 24.7% | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 19.9% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 29.3% | 5.9 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Clay Holmes | Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins | R | 18.2% | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 96 | normal | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bryan Hudson | Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | L | 19.5% | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 17 | short | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 17.4% | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 92 | normal | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | R | 34.4% | 4.5 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 76 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 17.9% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 80 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Jackson Jobe | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 20.2% | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 76 | short | full | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 21.9% | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 76 | short | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 19.0% | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 87 | normal | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 23.4% | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 79 | short | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals | L | 21.1% | 4.2 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 70 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs | R | 22.0% | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 69 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 28.5% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | R | 15.8% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants | R | 26.2% | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 82 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres | R | 25.8% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | R | 26.9% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 94 | normal | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 26.3% | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees | R | 21.5% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 104 | deep | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Cesar Perdomo | San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets | L | 22.7% | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent_form_unavailable |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | R | 24.7% | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies | R | 24.7% | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 74 | short | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | L | 30.3% | 5.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 96 | normal | full | 63.50 | 36.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 25.2% | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.5% |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | R | 21.6% | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 55 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.3 IP/start |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 22.2% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 86 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Gore | MacKenzie Gore Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 14.6 | -2.9 | 16.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.2 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.85 <= 3 min |
| Gerrit Cole | Gerrit Cole Over | New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | 18.5 | 19.4 | 0.9 | 4.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Aaron Nola | Aaron Nola Under | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.3 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Payton Tolle | Payton Tolle Over | Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 4.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Gavin Williams | Gavin Williams Over | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 1.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 6.0 | 76 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Over | Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 1.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael King | Michael King Over | New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.9 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Clay Holmes | Clay Holmes Over | Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | 18.5 | 18.5 | -0.0 | 0.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Aaron Nola Over | BRA@PHI | 1:10 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | -117 | DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact | 21.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153 | K Prop | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@ORI | 1:35 PM | 6.5 | 7.7 | -153 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -130 | best price | 18.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150 | K Prop | Cesar Perdomo Over | GIA@MET | 1:40 PM | 3.5 | 6.9 | -150 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150 | exact | 97.1% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@PIR | 1:35 PM | 4.5 | 6.1 | -153 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price | 35.2% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -130, expected IP 4.5 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Spencer Arrighetti Over | JAY@ROY | 2:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.7 | -130 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price | 35.1% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Ian Seymour Over | RAY@RAN | 2:36 PM | 5.5 | 7.1 | -122 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price | 29.0% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Gordon Under | CAR@ROC | 3:10 PM | 6.5 | 5.5 | -106 | DK Under 6.5 -106 | exact | 15.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Leahy Over | CAR@ROC | 3:10 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -183 | DK Over 0.5 -183 | exact | 147.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Justin Wrobleski Over | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -228 | DK Over 0.5 -228 | exact | 146.1% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-248); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Bryan Woo Over | ATH@MAR | 4:10 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -248 | DK Over 0.5 -248 | exact | 139.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Gordon Over | CAR@ROC | 3:10 PM | 0.5 | 0.9 | -148 | DK Over 0.5 -148 | exact | 85.1% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Spencer Arrighetti Over | JAY@ROY | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -170 | DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact | 58.9% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Christian Scott Over | GIA@MET | 1:40 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -142 | DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact | 45.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-190); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Bradish Over | SOX@ORI | 1:35 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -190 | DK Over 1.5 -190 | exact | 44.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Mahle Over | BRA@PHI | 1:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -150 | DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 34.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Phillips Over | CUB@MAR | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -166 | DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact | 32.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | DIA@AST | 2:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -172 | DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact | 27.6% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Randy Dobnak Over | JAY@ROY | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -126 | DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact | 26.6% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | MacKenzie Gore Over | RAY@RAN | 2:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -160 | DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact | 26.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Justin Wrobleski Over | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.7 | -136 | DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact | 80.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Bryan Woo Over | ATH@MAR | 4:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -130 | DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Christian Scott Over | GIA@MET | 1:40 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -139 | DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@RED | 12:10 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -162 | DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Gordon Under | CAR@ROC | 3:10 PM | 3.5 | 2.4 | -132 | DK Under 3.5 -132 | exact | 31.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@ORI | 1:35 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -168 | DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Ian Seymour Under | RAY@RAN | 2:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -164 | DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Walbert Urena Under | ANG@PIR | 1:35 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Gerrit Cole Under | YAN@PAD | 4:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -170 | DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Andrew Alvarez Over | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.9 | +112 | DK Over 3.5 +112 | exact | 39.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 43.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Over | BRA@PHI | 1:10 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | +100 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110 | best price | 27.1% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) | K Prop | Gavin Williams Over | TIG@GUA | 1:40 PM | 7.5 | 10.2 | -115 | BetOnline Over 7.5 -111 | best price | 35.6% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Bradish Over | SOX@ORI | 1:35 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -136 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -115 | best price | 22.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gerrit Cole Over | YAN@PAD | 4:10 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | +100 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 16.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jackson Jobe Under | TIG@GUA | 1:40 PM | 3.5 | 3.1 | -144 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -130 | best price | 12.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryan Woo Under | ATH@MAR | 4:10 PM | 6.5 | 5.8 | -106 | FanDuel Under 6.5 +106 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Christian Scott Under | GIA@MET | 1:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -133 | DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact | 7.9% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brady Singer Over | BRE@RED | 12:10 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | +102 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 | best price | 7.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Under | ANG@PIR | 1:35 PM | 7.5 | 7.0 | -154 | BetOnline Under 7.5 -149 | best price | 6.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Harrison Over | BRE@RED | 12:10 PM | 6.5 | 6.9 | -111 | DK Over 6.5 -111 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Clay Holmes Under | CUB@MAR | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | +113 | DK Under 4.5 +113 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Justin Wrobleski Under | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -133 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -130 | best price | 3.7% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Gordon Under | CAR@ROC | 3:10 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | +122 | DK Under 3.5 +122 | exact | 3.1% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | RAY@RAN | 2:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +108 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price | 2.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael King Under | YAN@PAD | 4:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -112 | DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact | 0.9% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gage Jump Under | ATH@MAR | 4:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -117 | FanDuel Under 5.5 +100 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@AST | 2:10 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -147 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -136 | best price | 0.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.85 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAY@RAN | 2:36 PM | 17.5 | 14.6 | -126 | DK Under 17.5 -126 | exact | 16.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gerrit Cole Over | YAN@PAD | 4:10 PM | 18.5 | 19.4 | +154 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +155 | best price | 4.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Aaron Nola Under | BRA@PHI | 1:10 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | -120 | DK Under 17.5 -120 | exact | 4.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@ORI | 1:35 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -119 | DK Over 17.5 -119 | exact | 4.2% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gavin Williams Over | TIG@GUA | 1:40 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -136 | theScore Bet Over 17.5 -135 | best price | 1.9% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Over | ATH@MAR | 4:10 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -200 | DK Over 17.5 -200 | exact | 1.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael King Over | YAN@PAD | 4:10 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -166 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price | 1.2% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Clay Holmes Over | CUB@MAR | 1:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.6 | -109 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price | 0.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@AST | 2:10 PM | 18.5 | 18.5 | -167 | DK Under 18.5 -167 | exact | 0.1% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Randy Dobnak Under | JAY@ROY | 2:11 PM | 6.5 | 5.6 | -144 | DK Under 6.5 -144 | exact | 13.9% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brady Singer Over | BRE@RED | 12:10 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -119 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@AST | 2:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -150 | DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Under | BRA@PHI | 1:10 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -152 | DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Bradish Under | SOX@ORI | 1:35 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -156 | DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Jackson Jobe Over | TIG@GUA | 1:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -163 | DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact | 19.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Gavin Williams Over | TIG@GUA | 1:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -199 | DK Over 1.5 -199 | exact | 16.1% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Aaron Nola Over | BRA@PHI | 1:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -130 | DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact | 15.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@ORI | 1:35 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -111 | DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact | 13.7% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Gerrit Cole Under | YAN@PAD | 4:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -179 | DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact | 12.9% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Peter Lambert Under | DIA@AST | 2:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 11.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@PIR | 1:35 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +109 | DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact | 11.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Brady Singer Over | BRE@RED | 12:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -140 | DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact | 10.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Clay Holmes Under | CUB@MAR | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -177 | DK Under 2.5 -177 | exact | 10.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Gage Jump Under | ATH@MAR | 4:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 8.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Paul Skenes Under | ANG@PIR | 1:35 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -149 | DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@RED | 12:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -101 | DK Under 1.5 -101 | exact | 3.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Bailey Ober Over | TWI@SOX | 6:20 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Alvarez Under | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 2.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael King Over | YAN@PAD | 4:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +128 | DK Over 2.5 +128 | exact | 1.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Ian Seymour Under | RAY@RAN | 2:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -126 | DK Under 1.5 -126 | exact | 0.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Paul Skenes Over | ANG@PIR | 1:35 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -110 | DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Gavin Williams Over | TIG@GUA | 1:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -121 | DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Clay Holmes Over | CUB@MAR | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -159 | DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Alvarez Under | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -104 | DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Phillips Under | CUB@MAR | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -161 | DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Leahy Over | CAR@ROC | 3:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -141 | DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Mahle Under | BRA@PHI | 1:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -147 | DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Under | BRA@PHI | 1:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -122 | DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAY@RAN | 2:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -163 | DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brady Singer Over | BRE@RED | 12:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -141 | DK Over 2.5 -141 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Randy Dobnak Under | JAY@ROY | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | +101 | DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bailey Ober Over | TWI@SOX | 6:20 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -120 | DK Over 2.5 -120 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Under | DIA@AST | 2:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Spencer Arrighetti Over | JAY@ROY | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -111 | DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael King Under | YAN@PAD | 4:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -161 | DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Bradish Under | SOX@ORI | 1:35 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jackson Jobe Under | TIG@GUA | 1:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -163 | DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@AST | 2:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -130 | DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gage Jump Under | ATH@MAR | 4:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -154 | DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | CUB@MAR | 1:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -147 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price | 24.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bailey Ober Over | TWI@SOX | 6:20 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -140 | theScore Bet Over 3.5 -130 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Peter Lambert Under | DIA@AST | 2:10 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | +103 | DK Under 4.5 +103 | exact | 9.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context