MLB Bets 2026-09-05

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	108W–65L–0P	62%	+8.56 u	Last 14 days • 173 settled
Grade A	12W–8L–0P	60%	+0.14 u
Grade B	96W–57L–0P	63%	+8.42 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3815W–2396L–8P	61%	-263.74 u	All-time • 6219 settled
Grade A	277W–219L–0P	56%	-12.76 u
Grade B	3536W–2168L–8P	62%	-244.54 u

104 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	K Prop	Andrew Abbott	3.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	K Prop	George Kirby	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	K Prop	Javier Assad	3.5	-104	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Anthony Molina	2.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	2.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Carlos Rodon	2.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	George Kirby	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob deGrom	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Javier Assad	1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Martin Perez	2.5	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Gusto	2.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Seth Lugo	2.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	2.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Zach Thornton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Zack Wheeler	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Martin Perez	5.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Martín Pérez	5.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Mason Adams	5.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Hits Allow	Max Scherzer	5.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Outs	Seth Lugo	17.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Walks	Braxton Ashcraft	0.5	-222	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Walks	Ethan Pecko	2.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Walks	Framber Valdez	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-05	Pitcher Walks	Martin Perez	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-04	K Prop	Shane Baz	4.5	-154	-	WIN	+0.649	Shane Baz: 6.0 (line 4.5)
2026-09-04	Pitcher Outs	Chris Sale	17.5	-175	-	WIN	+0.571	Chris Sale: 18.0 (line 17.5)
2026-09-04	K Prop	Andre Pallante	3.5	137	-	LOSS	-1.000	Andre Pallante: 1.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	624	55%	-25.69u	36	56%	-1.57u	295	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	536	58%	+8.36u	24	71%	+4.68u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	681	56%	-34.33u	55	51%	-7.68u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	459	62%	+1.10u	37	81%	+10.83u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	134	48%	-15.14u	5	40%	-1.44u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 31 total candidate(s); season N 624, 14d N 36	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 536, 14d N 24	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 30/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 134, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 844 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 811 pitcher(s), 3605 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 599 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1843 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 420 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Guardians
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 30 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 362 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 29 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 16 line(s)/8 game(s); Earned Runs 28 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 132, bovada_direct 3
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 390 market side(s) checked \| 390 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 650 \| batter bats 429 \| batter hand splits 141 \| pitcher HR splits 50 \| batter pitch-type 599 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 214 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	4:11 PM	-135	+112	-1.5 (+130)	1.5 (-157)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	+156	-191	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	+135	-163	1.5 (-156)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	6:11 PM	+135	-163	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-167	+138	-1.5 (-105)	1.5 (-115)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+153	-186	1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-149	+123	-1.5 (+118)	1.5 (-142)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	7:06 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+158)	1.5 (-193)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:11 PM	+100	-120	1.5 (-203)	-1.5 (+166)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	7:11 PM	-108	-111	-1.5 (+146)	1.5 (-178)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	7:16 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+152)	1.5 (-185)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	7:16 PM	-106	-113	-1.5 (+155)	1.5 (-189)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies	8:11 PM	-126	+104	-1.5 (+124)	1.5 (-149)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	+187	-231	1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+207	-257	1.5 (+104)	-1.5 (-126)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 24 Grade B | 69 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -131, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade…	K Prop	Andrew Abbott Over	BRE@RED	6:41 PM	3.5	4.5	-131	DK Over 3.5 -131 \| exact	29.1%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (4 play(s))

K Prop - Chris Bassitt Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.67

K Prop - Yusei Kikuchi Under

Projection: 5.8Displayed: Under 6.5 -149Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 6Recommended: BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 6

K Prop - Braxton Ashcraft Over

Projection: 7.0Displayed: Over 6.5 +123Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 5.5Recommended: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.5

K Prop - Carlos Rodon Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.5

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Andrew Abbott Over 3.5 (-131) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+104	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-131	+103	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 29.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.0, proj 4.5K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 15.6% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Changeup: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 129 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .254 | OPS .771
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 129 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.7%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, active roster 22.0%/6 hitters, BVP 24.0%/129 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Milwaukee Brewers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.11
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -131, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (24 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Javier Assad Under 3.5 (-104) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -104

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 3.17 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 3.5 -104; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	-
BetOnline	3.5	-123	-104	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	-122	-104	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 30.5% vs 17% min; cushion -1.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 1/2 OVER (2 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Javier Assad: K/9 6.2, proj 2.4K over 4.6 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 15.2% | put-away% 13.9% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (18% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 18.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | AVG .000 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 15.0%, L7 26.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 101 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — George Kirby Under 5.5 (-131) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	-
BetRivers	5.5	+112	-148	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+103	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 30.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
George Kirby: K/9 7.2, proj 3.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Sweeper (26% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 51 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .340 | OPS .793
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.9%, L7 22.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 11.8%/51 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Seth Lugo Under 17.5 (-101) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-131	-101	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-136	+102	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 14.319999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.46 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 82, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 82
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 79 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .624
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.6%, L7 17.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 22.8%/79 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.5%, L7 10.1%, season 7.5%, BVP 8.9%/79 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Max Scherzer Under 5.5 (-121) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-109	-121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.27, BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.8% / under 51.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 63 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .291 | OPS .911
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 22.5%, L7 17.6%, season 20.8%, BVP 15.9%/63 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/13 (92%) | Season 12/13 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Martin Perez Under 5.5 (-163) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 163 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .282 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.6%, L7 17.8%, season 22.1%, BVP 17.8%/163 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/26 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 3.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Martín Pérez Under 5.5 (-165) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 163 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .282 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.6%, L7 17.8%, season 22.1%, BVP 17.8%/163 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/26 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 3.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Mason Adams Under 5.5 (-142) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.0%, season 20.7% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/2 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Braxton Ashcraft Over 0.5 (-222) diff 191.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 64.6% / Under 35.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -222 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.4568513789859638 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.8 IP (BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 64.6% / under 35.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.8%, L7 27.6%, season 25.3% (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 11.6%, L7 6.6%, season 8.2% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-222); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Framber Valdez Over 1.5 (-171) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0794401869982746 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 135 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .252 | OPS .794
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.3%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3%, BVP 16.3%/135 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.6%, L7 7.4%, season 9.5%, BVP 10.4%/135 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/27 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-171) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Martin Perez Over 1.5 (-118) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0273405692964084 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.6 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 163 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .282 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.6%, L7 17.8%, season 22.1%, BVP 17.8%/163 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.2%, L7 9.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.8%/163 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 (-149) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.1269315419327612 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 5.5 IP (BB% 4.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 36 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .281 | OPS .767
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 24.1%, L7 17.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/36 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 7.6%, L7 9.4%, season 8.8%, BVP 11.1%/36 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Ethan Pecko Under 2.5 (-173) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8815602774360254 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.3 IP (BB% 9.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 16.4%, L7 24.7%, season 19.4% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.4%, L7 8.0%, season 8.8% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/3 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-173) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (B 12)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — George Kirby Over 1.5 (-148) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 5.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 51 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .340 | OPS .793
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.9%, L7 22.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 11.8%/51 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Over 1.5 (-144) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, L7 20.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Molina Under 2.5 (-126) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.22 over 3.9 IP (xFIP 4.19, ERA 4.07)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Molina: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .438 | OPS .971
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.6%, L7 22.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/5 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Under 2.5 (-155) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.91 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.22, ERA 2.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.3%, L7 19.5%, season 20.5% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Javier Assad Over 1.5 (-125) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.96 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.36, ERA 2.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | AVG .000 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 15.0%, L7 26.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-171) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.30 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.13, ERA 4.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 359 PA | K% 29.0% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .229 | OPS .686
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 21.9%, season 21.7%, BVP 29.0%/359 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 (-147) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.32 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.16, ERA 4.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.4%, L7 17.6%, season 18.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Gusto Under 2.5 (-150) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.99 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 3.28)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 14.0 outs/4.7 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.1%, L7 16.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-136) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.40 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.46, ERA 6.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 79 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .624
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.6%, L7 17.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 22.8%/79 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Martin Perez Under 2.5 (-122) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.84 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 2.80)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 163 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .282 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.6%, L7 17.8%, season 22.1%, BVP 17.8%/163 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-149) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.16 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.59, ERA 2.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 49 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .326 | OPS 1.062
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.9%, L7 23.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 14.3%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 (-167) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.90 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.29, ERA 3.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 81 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .225 | OPS .608
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.1%, L7 22.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.7%/81 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (69 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 28 play(s) (B 3 | C 25)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 (+113) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	5.5	+120	-159	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 37.4% vs 17% min; cushion +2.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Cade Cavalli: K/9 11.4, proj 7.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.3%, L7 19.5%, season 20.5%, active roster 19.7%/6 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/29 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.20 | Season Avg 6.10
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
K% trend: support +10.9 ppts (recent 38.6% vs season 27.7%, proj adj +5.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 3.5 (-157) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	3.5	-162	+120	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-157	+123	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-164	+128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 6.7, proj 3.8K over 4.6 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 27.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 92 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .533
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 92 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.2%, L7 24.5%, season 23.3%, active roster 21.2%/7 hitters, BVP 23.9%/92 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.7 ppts (recent 12.2% vs season 17.9%, proj adj -2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Framber Valdez Under 3.5 (-103) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
DK	3.5	-123	-103	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-122	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.1% / under 47.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Framber Valdez: K/9 6.4, proj 3.4K over 5.7 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Curveball: 25.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 135 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .252 | OPS .794
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 135 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.3%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3%, active roster 18.1%/7 hitters, BVP 16.3%/135 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Mason Adams Over 3.5 (-105) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	3.5	-125	-107	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-110	-120	-
DK	3.5	-105	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-106	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 24.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.87K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mason Adams: K/9 9.1, proj 4.4K over 4.7 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.344 | top pitch: Curveball (57% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 24.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.0%, season 20.7% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/2 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Kay Over 3.5 (-106) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 3.5 -106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-115	-112	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-110	-120	-
DK	3.5	-106	-120	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	3.5	-106	-120	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 21.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.5% / under 51.5%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.7, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .188 | OPS .725
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 20.2%, L7 16.7%, season 20.9%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.04
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chris Bassitt Under 4.5 (-158) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.67 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-154	+119	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	3.5	-150	+118	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-160	+115	-
DK	4.5	+123	-158	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Chris Bassitt: K/9 6.5, proj 3.9K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.8% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 154 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .316 | OPS .860
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 154 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 21.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 21.4%/154 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.44
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Parker Messick Over 6.5 (+109) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	6.5	+104	-135	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-145	-
DK	6.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 13.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.90K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Parker Messick: K/9 9.3, proj 7.4K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 47 PA | K% 27.7% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .786
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 25.3%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 27.7%/47 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/27 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.96
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 4.5 (-121) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, L7 20.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 (-120) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-120	-108	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-125	-105	-
DK	6.5	-120	-106	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-122	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Zack Wheeler: K/9 10.4, proj 7.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: Split-Finger (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Split-Finger: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 359 PA | K% 29.0% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .229 | OPS .686
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 359 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.0%, L7 21.9%, season 21.7%, active roster 21.3%/7 hitters, BVP 29.0%/359 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.70
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.3 ppts (recent 23.1% vs season 29.4%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yusei Kikuchi Under 6.5 (-149) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 5.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+110	-
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	Recommended
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	-
DK	6.5	+116	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 10.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.71K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.6% / under 56.4%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.60
Yusei Kikuchi: K/9 8.7, proj 5.8K over 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Split-Finger (29% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 42 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .146 | OPS .411
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 25.7%, L7 25.5%, season 24.4%, BVP 30.9%/42 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/9 (78%) | L20 7/9 (78%) | Season 7/9 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.78 | Season Avg 4.78
Prop trend: K L10: 7/9 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dustin May Under 5.5 (-145) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Dustin May: K/9 8.0, proj 5.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Sweeper (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 41 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .237 | OPS .635
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 24.3%, L7 25.1%, season 25.3%, BVP 24.4%/41 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.69
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 (-104) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 7.3 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	7.5	-108	-124	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+115	-150	Recommended
DK	7.5	-104	-123	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.1K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 7.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Tyler Glasnow: K/9 10.5, proj 8.1K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.0% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.243 | top pitch: Curveball (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 36.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 22 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .673
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 31.8%/22 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/9 (33%) | L20 3/9 (33%) | Season 3/9 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.89 | Season Avg 6.89
Prop trend: K L10: 3/9 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 (+123) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	-141	+108	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+110	-
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	-
DK	6.5	+123	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.20
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 8.3, proj 7.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.5% | put-away% 22.5% | xwOBA 0.287 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.8%, L7 27.6%, season 25.3% (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 6.07
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -1.17 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.2 ppts (recent 20.2% vs season 25.4%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ethan Pecko Over 3.5 (-148) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+114	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	+120	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ethan Pecko: K/9 7.6, proj 3.7K over 4.4 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 12.7% | xwOBA 0.400 | top pitch: Sweeper (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.4%, L7 24.7%, season 19.4%, active roster 16.0%/6 hitters (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 16.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 24.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/3 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob deGrom Over 5.5 (-119) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-115	-112	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob deGrom: K/9 11.5, proj 5.8K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 34.2% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 24.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .800
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.5%, split 15.4%, L7 17.6%, season 18.5%, active roster 15.6%/6 hitters, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.84x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 15.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.42
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 34.4% vs season 29.8%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Molina Under 3.5 (-102) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 3.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 3.25 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 3.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	3.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-124	-102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.3% / under 47.7%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Anthony Molina: K/9 7.2, proj 3.3K over 3.8 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.7% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Molina: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .438 | OPS .971
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.6%, L7 22.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: K L10: 4/5 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Gusto Under 3.5 (+129) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +129

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	-
BetOnline	3.5	-159	+122	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-165	+129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Ryan Gusto: K/9 7.7, proj 3.3K over 4.3 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.0 outs/4.7 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Cutter (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Cutter: 24.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .695
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.1%, L7 16.7%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.1%/7 hitters, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Taj Bradley Under 6.5 (-107) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-120	-108	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-119	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-115	-111	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 4.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Taj Bradley: K/9 11.0, proj 6.2K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 57 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .396 | OPS 1.078
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.6%, L7 22.7%, season 23.8%, active roster 26.3%/6 hitters, BVP 14.0%/57 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Opposes Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.5%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.59
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5
K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 30.6% vs season 27.2%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Max Scherzer Under 3.5 (-107) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-120	-107	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-108	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.3% / under 48.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Max Scherzer: K/9 7.7, proj 3.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 13.8% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Curveball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 27.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 63 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .291 | OPS .911
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 63 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 22.5%, L7 17.6%, season 20.8%, BVP 15.9%/63 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.54
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 5.5 (-112) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	5.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-112	-113	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.9% / under 50.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.2, proj 5.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 84 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .538
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 84 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 23.9%, L7 24.7%, season 24.8%, BVP 33.3%/84 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 (-113) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	4.5	-103	-130	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	-113	-113	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 6.0, proj 4.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.024
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 21.6%, active roster 18.8%/7 hitters, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/25 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.92
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (+108) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-137	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-118	-108	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.6% / under 45.4%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sonny Gray: K/9 8.4, proj 5.3K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 49 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .326 | OPS 1.062
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.9%, L7 23.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 14.3%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Martin Perez Under 3.5 (-126) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-103	-125	Recommended
DK	3.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Martin Perez: K/9 6.6, proj 3.4K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 163 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .282 | OPS .733
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 163 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.6%, L7 17.8%, season 22.1%, active roster 20.4%/8 hitters, BVP 17.8%/163 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Martín Pérez Under 3.5 (-130) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Martín Pérez: K/9 6.6, proj 3.4K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.2% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 163 PA | K% 17.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .282 | OPS .733
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 163 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.6%, L7 17.8%, season 22.1%, active roster 20.4%/8 hitters, BVP 17.8%/163 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 (-112) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-110	-118	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 8.9, proj 5.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.275 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 36 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .281 | OPS .767
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 24.1%, L7 17.4%, season 22.6%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 16.7%/36 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.73
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 (-154) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 4.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+130	-180	-
BetOnline	4.5	-159	+122	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	4.5	-162	+120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	4.5	-150	+118	-
DK	5.5	+120	-154	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.8% / under 57.2%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.20
Carlos Rodon: K/9 9.2, proj 5.4K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 81 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.9% | AVG .225 | OPS .608
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 81 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.1%, L7 22.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.7%/81 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 3.5 (-140) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	3.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+125	-165	-
DK	3.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+126	-162	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.9, proj 3.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.3% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Cutter (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Cutter: 21.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 79 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .624
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 18.6%, L7 17.8%, season 19.3%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 22.8%/79 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 17.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.21
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 (+102) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 +108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 +108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	5.5	+108	-143	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	+102	-131	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.6% / under 53.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Matthew Liberatore: K/9 10.4, proj 5.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.267
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.6%, L7 22.3%, season 22.7%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 30.1% vs season 23.9%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matthew Liberatore Under 17.5 (-132) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 17.5 -132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	-101	-132	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 14.713000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 15.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.97 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.0 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.267
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.6%, L7 22.3%, season 22.7%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 8.1%, L7 7.0%, season 8.4%, BVP 6.2%/32 PA (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/27 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 14.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.79 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.79 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — George Kirby Under 18.5 (-153) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+115	-155	-
DK	18.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	18.5	+124	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 16.169999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 12.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.91 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 82)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 82
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 51 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .340 | OPS .793
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 17.9%, L7 22.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 11.8%/51 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 10.4%, L7 9.6%, season 8.7%, BVP 0.0%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 18.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.33 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.33 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 18.5 (+138) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+140	-180	-
DK	18.5	+138	-184	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+148	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.142 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.41 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 47 PA | K% 27.7% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 25.3%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 27.7%/47 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.9%, L7 7.3%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.4%/47 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/27 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-127) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 19.036 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.59 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 49 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .326 | OPS 1.062
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.9%, L7 23.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 14.3%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.8%, L7 8.0%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 17.5 (-161) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-161	+121	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.688 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.39 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.024
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.2%, L7 7.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 7.7%/39 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 10/25 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 13.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +5.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Over 17.5 (-138) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.512 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.22 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 36 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .281 | OPS .767
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 24.1%, L7 17.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/36 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 7.6%, L7 9.4%, season 8.8%, BVP 11.1%/36 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 16.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Under 17.5 (+109) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+112	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.088 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.87 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 57 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .396 | OPS 1.078
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 24.6%, L7 22.7%, season 23.8%, BVP 14.0%/57 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.2%, split 11.0%, L7 11.7%, season 9.4%, BVP 14.0%/57 PA (adj 1.17x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Under 17.5 (+129) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +129

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
DK	17.5	-173	+129	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+132	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.179 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.13 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.2% / under 40.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 359 PA | K% 29.0% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .229 | OPS .686
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 21.9%, season 21.7%, BVP 29.0%/359 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 7.8%, L7 7.9%, season 7.8%, BVP 5.3%/359 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.10 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tyler Glasnow Over 17.5 (-181) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -181

Selected market: Over 60.3% / Under 39.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	-
DK	17.5	-181	+136	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+122	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.559 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 90%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.30 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.3% / under 39.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 22 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 31.8%/22 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.1%, L7 10.4%, season 9.1%, BVP 9.1%/22 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/9 (67%) | L20 6/9 (67%) | Season 6/9 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.22 | Season Avg 17.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/9 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 (-135) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.93x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 42 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .146 | OPS .411
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 25.7%, L7 25.5%, season 24.4%, BVP 30.9%/42 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/9 under 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 (-107) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.78 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.04, BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.024
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 3.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.24 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Over 5.5 (-129) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-129	-103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 135 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .252 | OPS .794
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.3%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3%, BVP 16.3%/135 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 (-142) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	-
DK	5.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.11 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.267
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.6%, L7 22.3%, season 22.7%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Under 6.5 (-104) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	-110	-
DK	6.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.2 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.18 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.50, BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 79 PA | K% 22.8% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .624
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.6%, L7 17.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 22.8%/79 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 6.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 11 play(s) (C 11)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Zach Thornton Over 1.5 (+162) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +162

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.10256672303882 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 35.8% / under 64.2%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, L7 20.4%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, L7 13.0%, season 7.4% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Anthony Molina Under 1.5 (-111) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.1831593738739627 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 3.9 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Molina: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .438 | OPS .971
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.6%, L7 22.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.7%, L7 7.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 5.9%/17 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/5 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 (-152) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2490619527853 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.9 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .800
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.4%, L7 17.6%, season 18.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 8.9%, L7 6.7%, season 8.4%, BVP 0.0%/20 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Javier Assad Under 1.5 (-117) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2525114250344809 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 4.4 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Javier Assad: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | AVG .000 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 15.0%, L7 26.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.9%, L7 8.3%, season 9.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-173) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7419296622242157 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 47 PA | K% 27.7% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 25.3%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 27.7%/47 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.9%, L7 7.3%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.4%/47 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Gusto Under 1.5 (-146) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3161684360756276 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.0 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 14.0 outs/4.7 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.1%, L7 16.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.2%, L7 9.9%, season 10.7%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-121) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6754695070096144 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 359 PA | K% 29.0% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .229 | OPS .686
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 21.9%, season 21.7%, BVP 29.0%/359 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 7.8%, L7 7.9%, season 7.8%, BVP 5.3%/359 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Yusei Kikuchi Over 1.5 (-138) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6716058689291868 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 42 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .146 | OPS .411
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 25.7%, L7 25.5%, season 24.4%, BVP 30.9%/42 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.5%, L7 10.4%, season 9.2%, BVP 2.4%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/9 (33%) | L20 3/9 (33%) | Season 3/9 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.78 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/9 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sonny Gray Over 1.5 (+116) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.590874823327364 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 49 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .326 | OPS 1.062
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.9%, L7 23.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 14.3%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.8%, L7 8.0%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chris Bassitt Over 1.5 (-167) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.554908202872636 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.7 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 154 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .316 | OPS .860
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 21.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 21.4%/154 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.3%, L7 6.6%, season 8.4%, BVP 11.7%/154 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brandon Pfaadt Over 1.5 (-104) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5335778951680354 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.8 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.024
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.2%, L7 7.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 7.7%/39 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 9/25 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-158) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.73 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.41, ERA 2.32)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 47 PA | K% 27.7% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 25.3%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 27.7%/47 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 1.5 (-120) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.01 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.23, ERA 3.10)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 24.8%, L7 27.6%, season 25.3% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-152) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.89 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.22, ERA 3.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 36 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .281 | OPS .767
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 24.1%, L7 17.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 16.7%/36 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Over 2.5 (-136) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.10 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 5.01, ERA 7.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.9% / under 46.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 92 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .533
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.2%, L7 24.5%, season 23.3%, BVP 23.9%/92 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mason Adams Under 2.5 (-105) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 3.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.0%, season 20.7% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/2 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Liberatore Over 2.5 (-133) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.95 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.97, ERA 6.13)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .467 | OPS 1.267
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.6%, L7 22.3%, season 22.7%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Yusei Kikuchi Under 2.5 (-126) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.68 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 4.78)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 42 PA | K% 30.9% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .146 | OPS .411
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 25.7%, L7 25.5%, season 24.4%, BVP 30.9%/42 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/9 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Bassitt Over 2.5 (+106) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.10 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.71, ERA 5.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 154 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .316 | OPS .860
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 21.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 21.4%/154 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Over 2.5 (+125) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.90 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.63, ERA 4.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 20 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .188 | OPS .725
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 20.2%, L7 16.7%, season 20.9%, BVP 20.0%/20 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/28 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-139) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 4.12)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 57 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .396 | OPS 1.078
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 24.6%, L7 22.7%, season 23.8%, BVP 14.0%/57 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ethan Pecko Over 2.5 (+109) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.63 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.55, ERA 5.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 16.4%, L7 24.7%, season 19.4% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/3 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 (-116) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.74 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.30, ERA 3.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 22 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 31.8%/22 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.78 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/9 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Over 2.5 (-106) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.36 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 135 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .252 | OPS .794
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.3%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3%, BVP 16.3%/135 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Scherzer Over 2.5 (-144) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.01 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.95, ERA 5.10)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 63 PA | K% 15.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .291 | OPS .911
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 22.5%, L7 17.6%, season 20.8%, BVP 15.9%/63 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 2.5 (-114) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.91 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 3.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 39 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.024
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.9%, L7 20.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 25.6%/39 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 6/25 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Under 2.5 (-143) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.41 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 3.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 84 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .538
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 23.9%, L7 24.7%, season 24.8%, BVP 33.3%/84 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	72.2	68.4	86.0	4	Curveball (50% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.243, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	67.6	67.0	72.0	6	Split-Finger (44% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	66.0	75.2	62.0	5	Changeup (46% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 34.2%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	61.7	53.3	74.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	59.1	52.0	70.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	59.0	57.2	64.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	56.8	60.4	56.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	55.9	58.9	54.5	4	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres	54.3	60.3	52.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	52.3	48.9	58.5	6	Sweeper (39% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	49.7	44.4	54.0	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros	49.2	41.5	57.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	48.8	48.7	49.5	6	Sweeper (28% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Anthony Molina	San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	48.0	51.2	46.0	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	46.5	51.5	42.5	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	46.2	51.5	38.0	8	Curveball (42% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals	45.2	37.9	49.5	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	44.9	44.8	45.0	7	Cutter (27% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Yusei Kikuchi	Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates	43.7	54.1	32.0	5	Split-Finger (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	43.4	47.2	38.0	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mason Adams	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	43.2	51.4	35.5	6	Curveball (57% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	42.8	44.0	38.0	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	42.4	40.3	43.5	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	41.8	40.8	44.0	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	41.1	43.8	36.5	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	40.6	38.7	43.0	7	Sweeper (28% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	38.8	40.5	35.0	7	Curveball (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins	37.3	27.9	44.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (18% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 15.2%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	37.0	36.7	34.5	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Ethan Pecko	Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	30.0	50.1	7.5	6	Sweeper (42% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.400, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros	R	16.4%	6.3	6.0	6.0	106	deep	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	L	15.9%	3.7	4.9	4.7	62	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	17.4%	4.6	5.1	5.0	77	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	15.6%	4.9	5.0	4.9	82	short	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	R	22.6%	6.0	5.8	5.8	101	deep	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins	R	17.3%	3.5	5.2	4.9	59	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	L	18.9%	5.1	5.0	5.0	86	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	17.3%	5.1	5.3	5.3	86	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	L	26.0%	6.1	6.0	6.0	102	deep	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Mason Adams	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	24.1%	4.5	4.5	5.4	76	short	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	L	16.2%	5.9	5.6	5.6	99	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ethan Pecko	Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	19.3%	4.1	4.3	5.1	69	short	full	7.50	92.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	17.4%	4.9	5.5	5.4	82	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Yusei Kikuchi	Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	22.7%	5.0	4.8	4.9	84	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	R	30.6%	5.2	5.7	5.6	87	normal	full	86.00	14.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	R	19.1%	4.3	4.2	4.2	72	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	R	20.8%	4.8	5.0	4.9	80	short	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	R	28.4%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	L	19.2%	5.4	5.6	5.5	91	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres	L	24.1%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	R	27.2%	5.0	5.7	5.5	84	short	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	R	23.6%	6.6	5.9	6.1	111	deep	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	L	19.2%	5.2	5.5	5.4	87	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Anthony Molina	San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	R	19.5%	2.8	5.0	5.1	47	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	R	18.4%	4.9	5.9	5.7	82	short	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	L	26.1%	5.1	5.0	5.0	86	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	R	25.2%	5.8	5.6	6.0	97	normal	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	31.4%	4.6	5.3	5.2	77	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals	R	20.2%	5.2	4.4	4.5	87	normal	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	31.5%	6.0	5.3	6.0	101	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Seth Lugo	Seth Lugo Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	14.3	-3.2	18.2%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.4	82	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Matthew Liberatore	Matthew Liberatore Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies	17.5	14.7	-2.8	15.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.0	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.79 <= 3 min
George Kirby	George Kirby Under	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	16.2	-2.3	12.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.7	82	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.33 <= 3 min
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Pfaadt	Brandon Pfaadt Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	17.5	18.7	1.2	6.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	17.5	18.5	1.0	5.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Under	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Under	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tyler Glasnow	Tyler Glasnow Over	Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes