| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 624 | 55% | -25.69u | 36 | 56% | -1.57u | 295 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 536 | 58% | +8.36u | 24 | 71% | +4.68u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 681 | 56% | -34.33u | 55 | 51% | -7.68u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 459 | 62% | +1.10u | 37 | 81% | +10.83u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 134 | 48% | -15.14u | 5 | 40% | -1.44u | 3 | 67% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals | 72.2 | 68.4 | 86.0 | 4 | Curveball (50% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.243, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | 67.6 | 67.0 | 72.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (44% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | 66.0 | 75.2 | 62.0 | 5 | Changeup (46% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 34.2%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | 61.7 | 53.3 | 74.5 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 59.1 | 52.0 | 70.0 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels | 59.0 | 57.2 | 64.0 | 5 | Curveball (38% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.8 | 60.4 | 56.0 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | 55.9 | 58.9 | 54.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres | 54.3 | 60.3 | 52.0 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 52.3 | 48.9 | 58.5 | 6 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | 49.7 | 44.4 | 54.0 | 7 | Sweeper (26% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros | 49.2 | 41.5 | 57.5 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 48.8 | 48.7 | 49.5 | 6 | Sweeper (28% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Molina | San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets | 48.0 | 51.2 | 46.0 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robbie Ray | San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees | 46.5 | 51.5 | 42.5 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies | 46.2 | 51.5 | 38.0 | 8 | Curveball (42% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Max Scherzer | Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | 45.2 | 37.9 | 49.5 | 5 | Curveball (31% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs | 44.9 | 44.8 | 45.0 | 7 | Cutter (27% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.7 | 54.1 | 32.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (29% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | 43.4 | 47.2 | 38.0 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mason Adams | Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | 43.2 | 51.4 | 35.5 | 6 | Curveball (57% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | 42.8 | 44.0 | 38.0 | 5 | Changeup (36% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | 42.4 | 40.3 | 43.5 | 5 | Curveball (32% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | 41.8 | 40.8 | 44.0 | 5 | Changeup (36% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 41.1 | 43.8 | 36.5 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants | 40.6 | 38.7 | 43.0 | 7 | Sweeper (28% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Bassitt | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 38.8 | 40.5 | 35.0 | 7 | Curveball (30% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins | 37.3 | 27.9 | 44.5 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (18% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 15.2%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 37.0 | 36.7 | 34.5 | 8 | Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Ethan Pecko | Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 30.0 | 50.1 | 7.5 | 6 | Sweeper (42% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.400, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros | R | 16.4% | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 106 | deep | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | L | 15.9% | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 62 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.7 IP/start |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 17.4% | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 77 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Chris Bassitt | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 15.6% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 82 | short | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 22.6% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 101 | deep | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins | R | 17.3% | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 59 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | L | 18.9% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 86 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 17.3% | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | L | 26.0% | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Mason Adams | Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 24.1% | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 76 | short | full | 35.50 | 64.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 16.2% | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 99 | normal | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ethan Pecko | Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 19.3% | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 69 | short | full | 7.50 | 92.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 17.4% | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 82 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3% |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 22.7% | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 84 | short | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Tyler Glasnow | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals | R | 30.6% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 86.00 | 14.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs | R | 19.1% | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 72 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Dustin May | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 20.8% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | R | 28.4% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants | L | 19.2% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres | L | 24.1% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | R | 27.2% | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 23.6% | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 111 | deep | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Robbie Ray | San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees | L | 19.2% | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Anthony Molina | San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets | R | 19.5% | 2.8 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 47 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.8 IP/start |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | R | 18.4% | 4.9 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 82 | short | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies | L | 26.1% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 86 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | R | 25.2% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 31.4% | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 77 | short | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.5% |
| Max Scherzer | Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | R | 20.2% | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 87 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 31.5% | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | Seth Lugo Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 14.3 | -3.2 | 18.2% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.4 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Matthew Liberatore | Matthew Liberatore Under | St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 14.7 | -2.8 | 15.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.0 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.79 <= 3 min |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Under | Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | 18.5 | 16.2 | -2.3 | 12.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.7 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.33 <= 3 min |
| Parker Messick | Parker Messick Over | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | 18.5 | 20.1 | 1.6 | 8.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Over | Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 8.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Brandon Pfaadt Over | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 18.7 | 1.2 | 6.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Over | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 18.5 | 1.0 | 5.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Taj Bradley | Taj Bradley Under | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 2.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Under | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Tyler Glasnow | Tyler Glasnow Over | Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -131, pitch-type boost on 19% usage pitch, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade… | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Over | BRE@RED | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -131 | DK Over 3.5 -131 | exact | 29.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 101 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Javier Assad Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.4 | -104 | DK Under 3.5 -104 | exact | 30.5% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | George Kirby Under | ATH@MAR | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 3.9 | -131 | DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact | 30.1% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Seth Lugo Under | JAY@ROY | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.3 | -101 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +102 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Max Scherzer Under | JAY@ROY | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -121 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Martin Perez Under | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -163 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price | 25.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Martín Pérez Under | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -165 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Mason Adams Under | CAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -142 | DK Under 5.5 -142 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-222); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Braxton Ashcraft Over | ANG@PIR | 6:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -222 | DK Over 0.5 -222 | exact | 191.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Framber Valdez Over | TIG@GUA | 6:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -171 | DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact | 38.6% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Martin Perez Over | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -118 | DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact | 35.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Drew Rasmussen Under | RAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -149 | DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact | 24.9% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Ethan Pecko Under | DIA@AST | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -173 | DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact | 24.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | George Kirby Over | ATH@MAR | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -148 | DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact | 73.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Zach Thornton Over | GIA@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -144 | DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact | 66.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Anthony Molina Under | GIA@MET | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -126 | DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Cavalli Under | NAT@DOD | 9:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -155 | DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Javier Assad Over | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -125 | DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Zack Wheeler Over | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -171 | DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob deGrom Over | RAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -147 | DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Gusto Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Seth Lugo Over | JAY@ROY | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.1 | -136 | DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Martin Perez Under | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -122 | DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Carlos Rodon Under | YAN@PAD | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -167 | DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 40.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | NAT@DOD | 9:11 PM | 5.5 | 7.6 | +113 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +120 | best price | 37.4% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Mason Adams Over | CAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -105 | DK Over 3.5 -105 | exact | 24.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Kay Over | TWI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -106 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -106 | best price | 21.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Chris Bassitt Under | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | -158 | DK Under 4.5 -158 | exact | 14.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | TIG@GUA | 6:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.4 | +109 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -150 | alt rescue | 13.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zach Thornton Over | GIA@MET | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -121 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -111 | best price | 13.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zack Wheeler Over | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.2 | -120 | BetOnline Over 6.5 -120 | best price | 11.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Yusei Kikuchi Under | ANG@PIR | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.8 | -149 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Dustin May Under | BRE@RED | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -145 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 9.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Glasnow Over | NAT@DOD | 9:11 PM | 7.5 | 8.1 | -104 | Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | ANG@PIR | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | +123 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | alt rescue | 7.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ethan Pecko Over | DIA@AST | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -148 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 | best price | 7.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | RAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -119 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -106 | best price | 6.3% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Molina Under | GIA@MET | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -102 | BetOnline Under 3.5 +100 | best price | 5.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Gusto Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | +129 | DK Under 3.5 +129 | exact | 5.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Taj Bradley Under | TWI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -107 | DK Under 6.5 -107 | exact | 4.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Max Scherzer Under | JAY@ROY | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -107 | BetMGM Under 3.5 +105 | best price | 4.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robbie Ray Over | YAN@PAD | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -112 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 4.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Pfaadt Over | DIA@AST | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -113 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -103 | best price | 4.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | +108 | DK Under 5.5 +108 | exact | 3.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martin Perez Under | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -126 | BetOnline Under 3.5 -125 | best price | 3.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martín Pérez Under | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -130 | Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -130 | exact | 3.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Under | RAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -112 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 2.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Carlos Rodon Under | YAN@PAD | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -154 | DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact | 2.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Seth Lugo Under | JAY@ROY | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -140 | DK Under 3.5 -140 | exact | 0.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore Over | CAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +102 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +108 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.79 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Matthew Liberatore Under | CAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.7 | -132 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -132 | best price | 15.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -2.33 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | George Kirby Under | ATH@MAR | 9:41 PM | 18.5 | 16.2 | -153 | DK Under 18.5 -153 | exact | 12.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Parker Messick Over | TIG@GUA | 6:11 PM | 18.5 | 20.1 | +138 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 | best price | 8.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -127 | DK Over 17.5 -127 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Pfaadt Over | DIA@AST | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 18.7 | -161 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -160 | best price | 6.8% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Drew Rasmussen Over | RAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.5 | -138 | DK Over 17.5 -138 | exact | 5.8% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Taj Bradley Under | TWI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | +109 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 | best price | 2.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zack Wheeler Under | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | +129 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +132 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tyler Glasnow Over | NAT@DOD | 9:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.6 | -181 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price | 0.3% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Yusei Kikuchi Under | ANG@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -135 | DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact | 23.6% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Brandon Pfaadt Under | DIA@AST | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -107 | DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Framber Valdez Over | TIG@GUA | 6:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -129 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Liberatore Over | CAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -142 | DK Over 5.5 -142 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Seth Lugo Under | JAY@ROY | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -104 | DK Under 6.5 -104 | exact | 4.6% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 35.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Zach Thornton Over | GIA@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +162 | DK Over 1.5 +162 | exact | 40.2% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Anthony Molina Under | GIA@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -111 | DK Under 1.5 -111 | exact | 21.1% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Jacob deGrom Under | RAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -152 | DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact | 16.7% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Javier Assad Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -117 | DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact | 16.5% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Parker Messick Over | TIG@GUA | 6:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -173 | DK Over 1.5 -173 | exact | 16.1% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Gusto Under | CUB@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -146 | DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact | 12.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Zack Wheeler Over | BRA@PHI | 6:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -121 | DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact | 11.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Yusei Kikuchi Over | ANG@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -138 | DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact | 11.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +116 | DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Chris Bassitt Over | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -167 | DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact | 3.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Pfaadt Over | DIA@AST | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -104 | DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact | 2.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Parker Messick Over | TIG@GUA | 6:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -158 | DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Braxton Ashcraft Over | ANG@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -120 | DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Rasmussen Over | RAY@RAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -152 | DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@MAR | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -136 | DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Mason Adams Under | CAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -105 | DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Liberatore Over | CAR@ROC | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -133 | DK Over 2.5 -133 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Yusei Kikuchi Under | ANG@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -126 | DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Chris Bassitt Over | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +106 | DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Anthony Kay Over | TWI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +125 | DK Over 2.5 +125 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Taj Bradley Under | TWI@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -139 | DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ethan Pecko Over | DIA@AST | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +109 | DK Over 2.5 +109 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Glasnow Over | NAT@DOD | 9:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -116 | DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Framber Valdez Over | TIG@GUA | 6:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -106 | DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Max Scherzer Over | JAY@ROY | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -144 | DK Over 2.5 -144 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Pfaadt Over | DIA@AST | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -114 | DK Over 2.5 -114 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Robbie Ray Under | YAN@PAD | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@MAR | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -157 | DK Over 3.5 -157 | exact | 8.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@GUA | 6:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -103 | BetMGM Under 3.5 +110 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context