MLB Bets 2026-09-04

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	105W–61L–0P	63%	+11.07 u	Last 14 days • 166 settled
Grade A	10W–7L–0P	59%	-0.08 u
Grade B	95W–54L–0P	64%	+11.16 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3805W–2385L–8P	61%	-259.14 u	All-time • 6198 settled
Grade A	275W–218L–0P	56%	-12.98 u
Grade B	3528W–2158L–8P	62%	-239.73 u

97 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	6.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	Cristopher Sánchez	6.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	Janson Junk	3.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	Shane Baz	4.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Andre Pallante	2.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristian Javier	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Janson Junk	1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Gilbert	1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Matt Wilkinson	2.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Ranger Suarez	1.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Drohan	2.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Keider Montero	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Johnson	5.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Outs	Chris Sale	17.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Walks	Rhett Lowder	1.5	-196	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-03	K Prop	Sandy Alcantara	3.5	-140	-	LOSS	-1.000	Sandy Alcantara: 2.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-03	K Prop	Tanner Bibee	3.5	-152	-	WIN	+0.658	Tanner Bibee: 4.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	619	55%	-22.34u	38	66%	+5.44u	293	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	534	58%	+8.71u	24	71%	+4.82u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	670	56%	-31.94u	48	50%	-7.68u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	457	62%	+0.17u	37	81%	+11.38u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	133	47%	-15.71u	5	40%	-0.80u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 619, 14d N 38	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 534, 14d N 24	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 32 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 32/32 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 133, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 844 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 811 pitcher(s), 3605 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 599 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 32 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 32 SP matchup(s), 1579 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 420 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, Athletics, Cleveland Guardians, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Colorado Rockies, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 32 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 360 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 16/16 game(s) with pitching props \| K 34 line(s)/16 game(s); Outs 34 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 33 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 2 line(s)/1 game(s); Earned Runs 30 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 106, betmgm 14, bovada_direct 12, fanduel 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 386 market side(s) checked \| 386 opening snapshot(s) created \| 7 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 16 game(s) scored \| 2 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 650 \| batter bats 429 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 51 \| batter pitch-type 599 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 16 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow blocked: 204 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_ARTIFACT_MISSING

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	2:11 PM	+118	-142	1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	-164	+136	-1.5 (-102)	1.5 (-118)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+173)	1.5 (-212)	O/U 6.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:46 PM	+163	-199	1.5 (-132)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-120	+100	-1.5 (+137)	1.5 (-166)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	7:10 PM	-149	+123	-1.5 (+115)	1.5 (-138)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+157	-191	1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians	7:16 PM	+119	-143	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+100	-120	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-117	-103	-1.5 (+141)	1.5 (-171)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	8:10 PM	-101	-120	-1.5 (+158)	1.5 (-192)	O/U 10.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+112	-135	1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+155)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 11.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-130	+108	-1.5 (+131)	1.5 (-158)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	+184	-226	1.5 (-126)	-1.5 (+104)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+259	-328	1.5 (+114)	-1.5 (-137)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 17 Grade B | 61 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -154, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Shane Baz Over	SOX@ORI	7:06 PM	4.5	5.7	-154	BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 \| best price	25.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage	Pitcher Outs	Chris Sale Over	BRA@PHI	6:41 PM	17.5	21.4	-175	FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 \| best price	22.5%	✓✓✓––✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (5 play(s))

K Prop - Chris Sale Over

Projection: 8.9Displayed: Over 7.5 +125Market line: majority 7.5 | avg 6.83Recommended: theScore Bet Over 5.5 +125 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6.83 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 7.5 / avg 6.83

K Prop - Jared Jones Under

Projection: 6.0Displayed: Under 6.5 -161Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 6Recommended: FanDuel Under 6.5 -158 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 6

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Jackson Kent Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Earned Runs - Rhett Lowder Over

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

Pitcher Earned Runs - Shota Imanaga Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Shane Baz Over 4.5 (-154) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -154

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-154	+121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-158	+124	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 25.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Shane Baz: K/9 8.4, proj 5.6K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 102 PA | K% 25.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .504
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 102 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.2%, L7 20.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.5%/102 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.15
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -154, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 17.5 (-175) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-210	+155	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
DK	17.5	-175	+131	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.43 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 22.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.77 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 147 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .219 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.6%, L7 17.5%, season 22.1%, BVP 30.6%/147 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.3%, L7 9.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 3.4%/147 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (17 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Janson Junk Under 3.5 (-144) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+270	-500	-
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+112	-144	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 29.0% vs 17% min; cushion -1.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.4% / under 55.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Janson Junk: K/9 5.2, proj 2.5K over 4.7 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 15.5% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .133 | OPS .388
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.2%, L7 16.6%, season 21.5%, active roster 20.2%/7 hitters, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.7 ppts (recent 9.4% vs season 16.1%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 (-120) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 6.3 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-122	-106	-
DK	6.5	-120	-106	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-118	-108	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 21.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.3, proj 7.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 25.2% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 150 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .331 | OPS .877
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 150 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, active roster 21.3%/7 hitters, BVP 22.7%/150 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 7.21
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Cristopher Sánchez Over 6.5 (-120) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 21.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Cristopher Sánchez: K/9 10.3, proj 7.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 25.2% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 150 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .331 | OPS .877
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 150 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, active roster 21.3%/7 hitters, BVP 22.7%/150 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 7.21
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Keider Montero Under 5.5 (-135) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 0.97, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 76 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 6.6% | AVG .145 | OPS .490
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, split 15.7%, L7 18.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 11.8%/76 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/28 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Johnson Under 5.5 (-155) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 11.1%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Rhett Lowder Over 1.5 (-196) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -196 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -196 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9660643027218385 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.0% / under 38.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 77 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .343 | OPS .895
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 26.0%/77 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 11.4%, L7 9.5%, season 10.6%, BVP 6.5%/77 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-196); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 11 play(s) (B 11)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Over 1.5 (-145) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.69 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 5.12)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, L7 17.3%, season 18.5% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristian Javier Over 1.5 (-168) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-168	+126	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.30 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.65, ERA 5.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 36 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .182 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 16.3%, L7 21.9%, season 19.3%, BVP 19.4%/36 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-168) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Over 1.5 (-158) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-158	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.15 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.49, ERA 3.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.2% / under 42.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 16 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .133 | OPS .388
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.2%, L7 16.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 18.8%/16 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-158) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (-125) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.38 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.59, ERA 3.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 78 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 17.7%, L7 20.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.8%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-127) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-127	-104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.85 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.99, ERA 5.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 95 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .213 | OPS .548
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 17.9%/95 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-140) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.42 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 5.76)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 9 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .000 | OPS .222
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.6%, L7 24.1%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Over 1.5 (-185) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 4.40)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 64 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 15.6% | AVG .226 | OPS .702
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.9%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 21.9%/64 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-185) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Over 1.5 (-156) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.19 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.67, ERA 2.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.8%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Drohan Under 2.5 (-134) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
DK	2.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.83 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 4.15)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Drohan: 31 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .712
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 25.8%/31 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Under 2.5 (-144) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	-
DK	2.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.57 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 3.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 34 PA | K% 14.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .355 | OPS .896
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.1%, L7 24.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 14.7%/34 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Matt Wilkinson Under 2.5 (-101) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-131	-101	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 4.51)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/3 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.2%, L7 25.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (61 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 3 | C 21)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Rhett Lowder Over 3.5 (-156) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-156	+121	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	Recommended
DK	3.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 21.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.75K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Rhett Lowder: K/9 6.6, proj 4.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.8% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 77 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .343 | OPS .895
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.2%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, active roster 22.0%/6 hitters, BVP 26.0%/77 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chris Sale Over 7.5 (+125) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 5.5 +125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +125

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6.83 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 5.5 +125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	6.5	-156	+122	-
BetMGM	7.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	7.5	+118	-154	-
DK	7.5	+125	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 19.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.0% / under 58.0%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.80
Chris Sale: K/9 11.3, proj 8.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.5% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 147 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .219 | OPS .583
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 147 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.6%, L7 17.5%, season 22.1%, active roster 20.5%/8 hitters, BVP 30.6%/147 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.80 | Season Avg 7.38
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 34.4% vs season 30.7%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 (-147) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-137	+106	-
BetRivers	3.5	-129	-104	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Ryan Feltner: K/9 6.8, proj 3.8K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .551
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.62
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — - Jackson Kent Over 3.5 (+100) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 40.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Allen Under 3.5 (-155) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	+120	-160	-
DK	3.5	+121	-155	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 26.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.93K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Logan Allen: K/9 8.1, proj 2.6K over 3.0 IP (season 3.3 IP/GS; recent 2.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Allen: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .344 | OPS 1.212
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 25.6%, L7 26.7%, season 22.7%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/6 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -5.7 ppts (recent 16.7% vs season 22.4%, proj adj -2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 26.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Wilkinson Under 3.5 (+130) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +130

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 3.9 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-175	+130	-
DK	3.5	-166	+130	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-170	+132	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+139	-182	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 20.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.71K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.9% / under 41.1%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Matt Wilkinson: K/9 6.9, proj 2.8K over 4.2 IP (season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/3 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 14.7% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (20% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.2%, L7 25.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/3 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Martinez Over 3.5 (+111) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+117	-152	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	+107	-141	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+111	-141	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 18.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.8% / under 55.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Nick Martinez: K/9 5.8, proj 4.1K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.2% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 54 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .985
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 24.3%, L7 20.9%, season 22.7%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 24.1%/54 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 18.2% vs season 14.7%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-111) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-123	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-115	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.98K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Ranger Suarez: K/9 7.5, proj 4.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 64 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 15.6% | AVG .226 | OPS .702
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.9%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 21.9%/64 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.96
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
K% trend: headwind -10.0 ppts (recent 13.1% vs season 23.1%, proj adj -5.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 (-148) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	4.5	+128	-175	-
DK	4.5	+116	-148	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.78K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.2, proj 3.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.392 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 95 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .213 | OPS .548
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 95 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.0%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, active roster 18.9%/7 hitters, BVP 17.9%/95 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Erick Fedde Under 3.5 (-171) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.17 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+300	-550	-
BetOnline	3.5	+132	-172	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	-
DK	3.5	+133	-171	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+132	-170	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 2.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.5% / under 59.5%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Erick Fedde: K/9 6.6, proj 2.9K over 4.4 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.1% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 62 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .145 | OPS .426
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 17.7%, L7 16.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 25.8%/62 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.03
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (+102) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	Recommended
DK	4.5	+102	-131	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.6% / under 53.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.4, proj 5.2K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 35.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 83 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .177 | OPS .546
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 83 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.6%, L7 21.9%, season 23.8%, active roster 26.3%/6 hitters, BVP 19.3%/83 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.5%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Under 6.5 (-146) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 6.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 6.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+215	-350	-
BetOnline	6.5	+110	-143	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+114	-146	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 15.9% vs 17% min; cushion -1.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Nolan McLean: K/9 9.0, proj 5.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Curveball: 21.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.8%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.37
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.0 ppts (recent 19.7% vs season 26.7%, proj adj -3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Max Fried Over 4.5 (+122) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	4.5	+106	-141	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.57K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Max Fried: K/9 9.1, proj 5.1K over 4.9 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 12.8 outs/4.3 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.246 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 96 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .744
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 96 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 21.9%/96 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 23.9%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Kent Over 3.5 (+100) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+109	-141	-
BetRivers	3.5	-108	-122	-
DK	3.5	+100	-127	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jackson Kent: K/9 8.3, proj 3.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.6%, season 20.6%, active roster 19.7%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.25 | Season Avg 4.25
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 (+120) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+120	-154	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.8% / under 57.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Shota Imanaga: K/9 9.9, proj 6.2K over 5.1 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Split-Finger: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.6%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.48
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 27.4% vs season 24.0%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristian Javier Under 4.5 (-144) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+106	-137	-
BetRivers	4.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Cristian Javier: K/9 8.4, proj 4.1K over 4.4 IP (season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.9% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 36 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .182 | OPS .644
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.3%, L7 21.9%, season 19.3%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters, BVP 19.4%/36 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 16.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.23
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (-138) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Foster Griffin: K/9 8.2, proj 5.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .222 | OPS .763
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 25.6%, L7 26.7%, season 22.7%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 5.15
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Blake Snell Over 7.5 (-113) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	7.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	7.5	-104	-129	Recommended
Bovada Direct	7.5	-105	-125	-
DK	7.5	-113	-113	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 9.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.70K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Blake Snell: K/9 10.7, proj 8.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 36.9% | put-away% 21.4% | xwOBA 0.225 | top pitch: Slider (59% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .567
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 27.1%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.20 | Season Avg 7.20
Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Over 4.5 (+120) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 19.3%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Under 4.5 (-121) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-106	-122	-
BetRivers	4.5	-112	-120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-105	-121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.3% / under 51.7%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Walker Buehler: K/9 7.2, proj 4.1K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.1% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Slider (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 125 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .747
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 125 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.3%, L7 23.4%, season 24.7%, BVP 28.0%/125 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.11
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Over 3.5 (-133) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-123	-104	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-133	+105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.9% / under 46.1%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Ryan Johnson: K/9 6.2, proj 3.8K over 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.356 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.06
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jared Jones Under 6.5 (-161) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -158 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -161

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 -158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-167	+128	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+260	-450	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+130	-170	-
DK	6.5	+126	-161	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+124	-158	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.60
Jared Jones: K/9 10.5, proj 6.0K over 4.5 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.1% | put-away% 22.8% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 9 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .000 | OPS .222
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.6%, L7 24.1%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Drohan Over 5.5 (+107) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	Recommended
DK	5.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Shane Drohan: K/9 8.8, proj 5.9K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Drohan: 31 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .712
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 25.8%/31 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/27 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.07
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 (-114) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	-110	-121	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
DK	6.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.2, proj 6.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 78 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .647
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 17.7%, L7 20.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.8%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.15
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 7 play(s) (B 2 | C 5)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (-102) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 18.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 18.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	-102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	-108	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.878999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 18.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 150 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .331 | OPS .877
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.7%/150 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 6.3%, L7 7.1%, season 7.8%, BVP 6.0%/150 PA (adj 0.89x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.29 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sánchez Over 18.5 (-105) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 21.878999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 18.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 150 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .331 | OPS .877
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.7%/150 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 6.3%, L7 7.1%, season 7.8%, BVP 6.0%/150 PA (adj 0.89x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.29 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (1 books) — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Blake Snell Under 17.5 (+121) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +121

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-162	+121	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-152	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.359 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 50%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.82 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .567
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 27.1%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 8.6%, L7 11.7%, season 9.1%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 15.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/5 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-171) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+140	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
DK	17.5	-171	+129	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.13 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.67 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.1% / under 40.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.8%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 8.4%, L7 12.5%, season 7.4% (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zebby Matthews Over 17.5 (-102) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-105	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	+102	-138	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 18.582 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.03 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 83 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .177 | OPS .546
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.6%, L7 21.9%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/83 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.1%, L7 12.5%, season 9.4%, BVP 3.6%/83 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 17.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nick Martinez Over 17.5 (-110) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-115	-118	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-110	-120	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.718 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.47 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 54 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.3%, L7 20.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 24.1%/54 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 7.4%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.4%/54 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Under 18.5 (-171) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+130	-175	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+128	-171	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.378999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.59 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 78 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 17.7%, L7 20.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.8%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.5%, L7 8.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.7%/78 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-150) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 64 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 15.6% | AVG .226 | OPS .702
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.9%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 21.9%/64 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — - Jackson Kent Under 5.5 (-145) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Under 5.5 (-130) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, L7 21.9%, season 19.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Under 6.5 (-121) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-125	-
DK	6.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.9 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.25 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.67, BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .551
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 (-119) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 83 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .177 | OPS .546
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.6%, L7 21.9%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/83 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Rhett Lowder Under 5.5 (-116) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 77 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .343 | OPS .895
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 26.0%/77 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-160) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 102 PA | K% 25.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .504
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.2%, L7 20.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.5%/102 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jackson Kent Under 5.5 (-144) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.53, BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.6%, season 20.6% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/4 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 (-107) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-107	-124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.50, BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 95 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .213 | OPS .548
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 17.9%/95 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -1.24 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 5.5 (-144) Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 3.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 54 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.3%, L7 20.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 24.1%/54 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-140) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7695013343572878 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Drohan: 31 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .712
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 25.8%/31 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 12.1%, L7 8.6%, season 9.5%, BVP 9.7%/31 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 19 play(s) (C 19)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kade Morris Over 1.5 (+112) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.39 over 3.4 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 6.98)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 9.5 outs/3.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.4%, L7 27.3%, season 23.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Blake Snell Over 1.5 (+107) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.08 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.82, ERA 3.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .567
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 27.1%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/5 (20%) | L20 1/5 (20%) | Season 1/5 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/5 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Erick Fedde Under 2.5 (-122) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-109	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.54 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 3.80)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 62 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .145 | OPS .426
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 17.7%, L7 16.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 25.8%/62 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 (-115) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
DK	3.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.70 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.91, ERA 6.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .551
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Rhett Lowder Over 2.5 (-168) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 3.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-168	+126	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	3.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.07 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 4.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Rhett Lowder: 77 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .343 | OPS .895
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 26.0%/77 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 (-125) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.36 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 5.41, ERA 4.10)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Under 2.5 (-176) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -176 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-185	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.92, ERA 4.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.6%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Under 2.5 (-158) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	-
DK	2.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.11 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.96)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 125 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.3%, L7 23.4%, season 24.7%, BVP 28.0%/125 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Keider Montero Under 2.5 (-135) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.86 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.62, ERA 3.11)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 76 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 6.6% | AVG .145 | OPS .490
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, split 15.7%, L7 18.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 11.8%/76 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Daniel Lynch IV Over 1.5 (-175) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-175	+131	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.34 over 3.3 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.57)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.3 IP (HIGH; season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.1 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Daniel Lynch IV: 60 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .352 | OPS .907
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.8%, L7 18.3%, season 19.4%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/51 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-130) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+100	-
DK	2.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.11 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.03, ERA 4.02)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 83 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .177 | OPS .546
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.6%, L7 21.9%, season 23.8%, BVP 19.3%/83 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Over 2.5 (-105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-105	-126	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.10 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 3.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 54 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.3%, L7 20.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 24.1%/54 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/26 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 (+105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+105	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.88 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.78, ERA 6.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 11.8 outs/3.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 39 PA | K% 28.2% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .229 | OPS .739
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.6%, L7 18.1%, season 20.8%, BVP 28.2%/39 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Kent Over 2.5 (-134) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+115	-
DK	2.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.93 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 5.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.6%, season 20.6% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/4 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Allen Under 1.5 (-105) Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.21 over 3.2 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.61)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.2 IP (HIGH; season 3.3 IP/GS; recent 2.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Allen: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .344 | OPS 1.212
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 25.6%, L7 26.7%, season 22.7%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/6 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Sale Under 1.5 (+109) Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.24 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 2.77, ERA 1.91)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 147 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .219 | OPS .583
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 20.6%, L7 17.5%, season 22.1%, BVP 30.6%/147 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 (+106) Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-140	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.30 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 2.51, ERA 2.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 150 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .331 | OPS .877
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, BVP 22.7%/150 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-155) Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.19 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.18, ERA 4.33)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 102 PA | K% 25.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .504
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.2%, L7 20.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.5%/102 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Fried Under 1.5 (-155) Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.82 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 2.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 12.8 outs/4.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 96 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .744
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 21.9%/96 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

32 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Blake Snell	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	82.4	78.9	95.0	4	Slider (59% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 36.9%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.225, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres	67.6	54.4	84.5	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.246, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	67.1	72.3	67.0	3	Changeup (47% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	66.8	66.2	73.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	61.5	68.6	56.0	4	Changeup (40% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	58.8	61.7	60.0	6	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	58.3	57.7	60.5	6	Slider (40% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins	57.2	59.2	57.0	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	55.7	55.2	61.0	7	Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Logan Allen	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	53.7	47.9	58.5	5	Sweeper (40% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor Williams	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	52.9	49.2	52.5	5	Sweeper (36% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	51.9	47.5	58.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	49.7	50.1	50.5	4	Changeup (67% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	49.7	37.3	64.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	49.2	46.0	52.5	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	49.1	42.6	55.0	5	Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	49.0	49.9	53.0	5	Slider (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	47.7	47.0	49.0	7	Sweeper (32% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.7	56.1	34.5	7	Sweeper (39% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kade Morris	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	45.7	38.5	44.0	6	Changeup (32% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 11.5%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	44.9	38.7	51.0	7	Slider (24% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	44.2	44.1	44.5	6	Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matt Wilkinson	San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	41.9	28.4	55.0	4	Slider (20% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 14.7%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	40.1	28.7	48.5	6	Changeup (26% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 15.5%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	39.8	32.7	48.0	6	Changeup (31% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 17.2%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals	39.7	54.6	26.0	7	Sweeper (34% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	39.4	45.1	31.0	6	Changeup (46% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	39.3	34.5	42.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	38.4	40.9	32.0	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates	38.3	42.1	29.5	4	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	37.3	37.6	35.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros	26.9	40.2	11.5	6	Slider (36% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.392, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

32 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros	R	15.7%	5.3	5.7	5.6	89	normal	full	11.50	88.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kade Morris	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	R	18.2%	2.8	4.0	5.0	47	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	32.0%	6.6	6.0	6.1	111	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	21.8%	5.5	5.8	5.8	92	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	L	19.6%	4.6	5.2	5.0	77	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins	L	25.2%	4.4	5.6	5.3	74	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.1%	3.4	4.8	4.5	57	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	16.6%	5.7	5.0	5.1	96	normal	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	L	21.9%	5.0	5.7	5.6	84	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Logan Allen	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	L	20.5%	2.0	3.3	4.8	34	short	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.0 IP/start
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	16.4%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	L	19.2%	3.1	-	5.4	52	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	R	14.8%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.1%	4.6	3.9	4.3	77	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	18.3%	2.9	3.1	4.1	49	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	16.1%	5.1	4.8	4.9	86	short	full	29.50	70.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Blake Snell	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	L	28.4%	5.2	5.2	5.4	87	normal	full	95.00	5.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	R	13.8%	4.1	5.1	4.9	69	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	22.6%	4.4	5.2	5.1	74	short	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	R	19.6%	6.1	5.9	5.9	102	deep	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	R	24.3%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres	L	25.6%	4.5	5.6	5.4	76	short	full	84.50	15.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	L	27.8%	6.0	6.3	6.2	101	deep	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	R	25.4%	4.0	4.5	4.4	67	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	R	19.3%	5.4	4.9	5.0	91	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Matt Wilkinson	San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	L	18.2%	3.7	3.9	4.9	62	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	R	25.1%	5.4	5.9	6.0	91	normal	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.6%	6.0	5.7	5.7	101	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	R	15.9%	5.9	5.9	5.9	99	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Trevor Williams	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	24.4%	2.3	-	5.1	39	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals	R	21.2%	3.4	4.9	4.6	57	short	full	26.00	74.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	20.9%	4.6	4.8	5.2	77	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	21.4	3.9	22.5%	A	BEST_PLAY	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.9	3.4	18.3%	B	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) \| books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
Cristopher Sánchez	Cristopher Sánchez Over	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.9	3.4	18.3%	B	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)
Blake Snell	Blake Snell Under	Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	15.4	-2.1	12.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Over	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.9	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Under	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	18.4	-0.1	0.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes