| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 619 | 55% | -22.34u | 38 | 66% | +5.44u | 293 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 534 | 58% | +8.71u | 24 | 71% | +4.82u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 670 | 56% | -31.94u | 48 | 50% | -7.68u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 457 | 62% | +0.17u | 37 | 81% | +11.38u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 133 | 47% | -15.71u | 5 | 40% | -0.80u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals | 82.4 | 78.9 | 95.0 | 4 | Slider (59% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 36.9%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.225, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres | 67.6 | 54.4 | 84.5 | 7 | Changeup (29% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.246, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | 67.1 | 72.3 | 67.0 | 3 | Changeup (47% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | 66.8 | 66.2 | 73.0 | 4 | Slider (38% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels | 61.5 | 68.6 | 56.0 | 4 | Changeup (40% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | 58.8 | 61.7 | 60.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 58.3 | 57.7 | 60.5 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins | 57.2 | 59.2 | 57.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants | 55.7 | 55.2 | 61.0 | 7 | Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Allen | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | 53.7 | 47.9 | 58.5 | 5 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Williams | Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | 52.9 | 49.2 | 52.5 | 5 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 51.9 | 47.5 | 58.0 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Sears | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | 49.7 | 50.1 | 50.5 | 4 | Changeup (67% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | 49.7 | 37.3 | 64.0 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | 49.2 | 46.0 | 52.5 | 5 | Curveball (31% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies | 49.1 | 42.6 | 55.0 | 5 | Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 49.0 | 49.9 | 53.0 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | 47.7 | 47.0 | 49.0 | 7 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cristian Javier | Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.7 | 56.1 | 34.5 | 7 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Kade Morris | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | 45.7 | 38.5 | 44.0 | 6 | Changeup (32% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 11.5%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees | 44.9 | 38.7 | 51.0 | 7 | Slider (24% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | 44.2 | 44.1 | 44.5 | 6 | Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Matt Wilkinson | San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets | 41.9 | 28.4 | 55.0 | 4 | Slider (20% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 14.7%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs | 40.1 | 28.7 | 48.5 | 6 | Changeup (26% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 15.5%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 39.8 | 32.7 | 48.0 | 6 | Changeup (31% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 17.2%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jameson Taillon | Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | 39.7 | 54.6 | 26.0 | 7 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | 39.4 | 45.1 | 31.0 | 6 | Changeup (46% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | 39.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 | 5 | Changeup (26% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jackson Kent | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 38.4 | 40.9 | 32.0 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 38.3 | 42.1 | 29.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (33% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 37.3 | 37.6 | 35.0 | 6 | Slider (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros | 26.9 | 40.2 | 11.5 | 6 | Slider (36% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.392, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros | R | 15.7% | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 89 | normal | full | 11.50 | 88.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kade Morris | Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | R | 18.2% | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 47 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.8 IP/start |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 32.0% | 6.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 111 | deep | full | 73.00 | 27.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | R | 21.8% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 19.6% | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 77 | short | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins | L | 25.2% | 4.4 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 74 | short | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | R | 17.1% | 3.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 57 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.4 IP/start |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 16.6% | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 96 | normal | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | L | 21.9% | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 84 | short | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Logan Allen | Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | L | 20.5% | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 34 | short | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.0 IP/start |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 16.4% | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 82 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Andrew Sears | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 19.2% | 3.1 | - | 5.4 | 52 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 14.8% | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Cristian Javier | Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 21.1% | 4.6 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 77 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3% |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 18.3% | 2.9 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 49 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 16.1% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 29.50 | 70.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Blake Snell | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals | L | 28.4% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 95.00 | 5.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs | R | 13.8% | 4.1 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 69 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 22.6% | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 74 | short | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | R | 19.6% | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 102 | deep | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants | R | 24.3% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres | L | 25.6% | 4.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 76 | short | full | 84.50 | 15.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves | L | 27.8% | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 101 | deep | full | 67.00 | 33.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 25.4% | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 67 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees | R | 19.3% | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 91 | normal | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Matt Wilkinson | San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets | L | 18.2% | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 62 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.7 IP/start |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | R | 25.1% | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 91 | normal | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies | R | 17.6% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 101 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | R | 15.9% | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 99 | normal | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Trevor Williams | Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 24.4% | 2.3 | - | 5.1 | 39 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.5% |
| Jameson Taillon | Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | R | 21.2% | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 57 | short | full | 26.00 | 74.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.4 IP/start |
| Jackson Kent | Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 20.9% | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 77 | short | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | Chris Sale Over | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 21.4 | 3.9 | 22.5% | A | BEST_PLAY | research | deep | 6.1 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 21.9 | 3.4 | 18.3% | B | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Cristopher Sánchez Over | Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 21.9 | 3.4 | 18.3% | B | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books) |
| Blake Snell | Blake Snell Under | Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 17.5 | 15.4 | -2.1 | 12.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Zebby Matthews | Zebby Matthews Over | Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.9 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Nick Martinez | Nick Martinez Over | Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Logan Gilbert | Logan Gilbert Under | Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | 18.5 | 18.4 | -0.1 | 0.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -154, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Shane Baz Over | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -154 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 25.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Chris Sale Over | BRA@PHI | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 21.4 | -175 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price | 22.5% | ✓✓✓––✓ | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Janson Junk Under | CUB@MAR | 7:10 PM | 3.5 | 2.5 | -144 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price | 29.0% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | BRA@PHI | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.9 | -120 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -118 | best price | 21.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Cristopher Sánchez Over | BRA@PHI | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.9 | -120 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -120 | exact | 21.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Hits All | Keider Montero Under | TIG@GUA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -135 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | exact | 27.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Johnson Under | ANG@PIR | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -155 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | exact | 27.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-196); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Rhett Lowder Over | BRE@RED | 6:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -196 | DK Over 1.5 -196 | exact | 31.1% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Kumar Rocker Over | RAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -145 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | exact | 66.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cristian Javier Over | DIA@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -168 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 60.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Janson Junk Over | CUB@MAR | 7:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -158 | DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Gilbert Over | ATH@MAR | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -125 | DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.4 | -127 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | best price | 36.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jared Jones Over | ANG@PIR | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -140 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Ranger Suarez Over | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -185 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -185 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Nolan McLean Over | GIA@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -156 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price | 33.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Drohan Under | BRE@RED | 6:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -134 | DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Andre Pallante Under | CAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Matt Wilkinson Under | GIA@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -101 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Chris Sale Over | BRA@PHI | 6:41 PM | 7.5 | 8.9 | +125 | theScore Bet Over 5.5 +125 | alt rescue | 19.0% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | BRA@PHI | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 21.9 | -102 | BetMGM Over 18.5 +105 | best price | 18.3% | ✓✓✗––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (1 books) — posture note at C | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sánchez Over | BRA@PHI | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 21.9 | -105 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 -105 | exact | 18.3% | ✓✓✗––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) | K Prop | - Jackson Kent Over | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.9 | +100 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +100 | exact | 40.7% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Allen Under | TIG@GUA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 2.6 | -155 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price | 26.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Matt Wilkinson Under | GIA@MET | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | +130 | Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -170 | alt rescue | 20.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Martinez Over | RAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | +111 | BetOnline Over 3.5 +117 | best price | 18.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -111 | DK Under 5.5 -111 | exact | 17.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Merrill Kelly Under | DIA@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -148 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 17.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Erick Fedde Under | TWI@SOX | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -171 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -170 | best price | 16.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | +102 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price | 15.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Under | GIA@MET | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 5.5 | -146 | BetOnline Under 6.5 -143 | best price | 15.9% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Max Fried Over | YAN@PAD | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | +122 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +130 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jackson Kent Over | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | +100 | BetMGM Over 3.5 +125 | best price | 12.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Over | CUB@MAR | 7:10 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | +120 | DK Over 5.5 +120 | exact | 12.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cristian Javier Under | DIA@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -144 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price | 9.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Under | TIG@GUA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -138 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Blake Snell Over | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 7.5 | 8.2 | -113 | BetRivers Over 7.5 -104 | best price | 9.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Over | DIA@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | +120 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +120 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Under | YAN@PAD | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -121 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -115 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Over | ANG@PIR | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -133 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price | 7.5% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jared Jones Under | ANG@PIR | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 6.0 | -161 | FanDuel Under 6.5 -158 | best price | 7.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Drohan Over | BRE@RED | 6:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +107 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 7.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Gilbert Over | ATH@MAR | 10:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.9 | -114 | BetMGM Over 6.5 +105 | best price | 5.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Blake Snell Under | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.4 | +121 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price | 12.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | GIA@MET | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -171 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price | 9.3% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@SOX | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -102 | FanDuel Over 17.5 +102 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nick Martinez Over | RAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -110 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 | best price | 1.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Gilbert Under | ATH@MAR | 10:11 PM | 18.5 | 18.4 | -171 | Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -170 | best price | 0.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Hits All | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -150 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | - Jackson Kent Under | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -145 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Under | DIA@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -130 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -130 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Feltner Under | CAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.9 | -121 | DK Under 6.5 -121 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zebby Matthews Under | TWI@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -119 | DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Rhett Lowder Under | BRE@RED | 6:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -116 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Under | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -160 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jackson Kent Under | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -144 | DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -107 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Martinez Under | RAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -144 | DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Shane Drohan Over | BRE@RED | 6:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -140 | DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact | 18.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Kade Morris Over | ATH@MAR | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +112 | DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Blake Snell Over | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +107 | DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Erick Fedde Under | TWI@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -122 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Feltner Under | CAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -115 | DK Under 3.5 -115 | exact | 14.3% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Rhett Lowder Over | BRE@RED | 6:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -168 | DK Over 2.5 -168 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Over | ANG@PIR | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -125 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Shota Imanaga Under | CUB@MAR | 7:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -176 | DK Under 2.5 -176 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Under | YAN@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -158 | DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Keider Montero Under | TIG@GUA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -135 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Daniel Lynch IV Over | JAY@ROY | 8:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -175 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -130 | DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Martinez Over | RAY@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -105 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jameson Taillon Over | JAY@ROY | 8:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +105 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jackson Kent Over | NAT@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -134 | DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Allen Under | TIG@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -105 | BetMGM Under 1.5 -105 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Chris Sale Under | BRA@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +109 | DK Under 1.5 +109 | exact | - | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Under | BRA@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +106 | BetMGM Under 1.5 +110 | best price | - | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Under | SOX@ORI | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -155 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Max Fried Under | YAN@PAD | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -155 | BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Rhett Lowder Over | BRE@RED | 6:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -156 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -150 | best price | 21.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Over | CAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -147 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price | 7.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context