MLB Bets 2026-09-02

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	132W–79L–0P	63%	+1.37 u	Last 14 days • 211 settled
Grade A	9W–6L–0P	60%	+0.57 u
Grade B	123W–73L–0P	63%	+0.79 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3783W–2377L–8P	61%	-266.06 u	All-time • 6168 settled
Grade A	270W–215L–0P	56%	-13.39 u
Grade B	3511W–2153L–8P	62%	-246.23 u

99 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	K Prop	Andrew Painter	3.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	K Prop	Griffin Jax	4.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	4.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	K Prop	Jacob Lopez	5.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski	7.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	K Prop	Reid Detmers	6.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Davis Martin	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Drew Anderson	2.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Hayden Wesneski	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Reid Detmers	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Landen Roupp	5.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Cameron	5.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Outs	Cody Bradford	17.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Outs	Jacob Misiorowski	17.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Painter	2.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Williamson	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Walks	Cody Bradford	0.5	-223	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Walks	Dean Kremer	1.5	-182	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Walks	Drew Anderson	1.5	-176	-	PENDING	-

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	609	55%	-24.43u	31	58%	+0.34u	285	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	530	58%	+7.73u	25	60%	+0.55u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	1	0%	-1.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	15	87%	+2.51u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	663	56%	-31.71u	55	55%	-4.53u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	450	61%	-3.90u	32	75%	+7.01u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	131	47%	-15.70u	3	33%	-0.79u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	1	0%	-1.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	4	75%	+1.14u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 7 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 31	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 530, 14d N 25	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 1	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 131, 14d N 3	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 4	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 841 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 232 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 808 pitcher(s), 3591 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 596 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 1114 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 420 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, Athletics, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 357 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 28 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 27 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 26 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 13 line(s)/7 game(s); Earned Runs 24 line(s)/13 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 115, betmgm 2, espnbet 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 356 market side(s) checked \| 356 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 649 \| batter bats 431 \| batter hand splits 141 \| pitcher HR splits 49 \| batter pitch-type 596 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow blocked: 191 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_ARTIFACT_MISSING

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds	12:41 PM	-150	+124	-1.5 (+104)	1.5 (-125)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals	1:06 PM	-162	+134	-1.5 (+100)	1.5 (-120)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Texas Rangers	2:36 PM	+136	-164	1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies	3:11 PM	-167	+138	-1.5 (-107)	1.5 (-112)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	3:41 PM	-115	-105	-1.5 (+138)	1.5 (-167)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox	4:11 PM	+114	-137	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+138)	1.5 (-167)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	+138	-167	1.5 (-158)	-1.5 (+131)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	-162	+134	-1.5 (+105)	1.5 (-126)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+158)	1.5 (-193)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-107	-112	-1.5 (+152)	1.5 (-184)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-182)	-1.5 (+150)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-171	+141	-1.5 (+109)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+203	-252	1.5 (-108)	-1.5 (-112)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

6 Grade A | 16 Grade B | 57 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 6 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -155, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Griffin Jax Over	MET@RAY	6:41 PM	4.5	6.5	-155	BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 \| best price	44.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 10% usage pitch	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski Over	BRE@CUB	7:41 PM	7.5	10.2	-118	DK Over 7.5 -118 \| exact	36.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -138, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Andrew Painter Over	PHI@DIA	3:41 PM	3.5	4.7	-138	BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 \| best price	35.1%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade…	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski Over	SOX@AST	8:11 PM	4.5	5.9	-145	BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 \| best price	31.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -160	K Prop	Noah Cameron Over	MAR@ROY	7:41 PM	4.5	5.7	-160	FanDuel Over 4.5 -146 \| best price	26.2%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -139, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch	K Prop	Reid Detmers Over	YAN@ANG	9:39 PM	6.5	8.2	-139	BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 \| best price	25.4%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Griffin Jax Over 4.5 (-155) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-155	+121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 44.8% vs 17% min; cushion +2.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Griffin Jax: K/9 10.2, proj 6.5K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 25.2% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 31 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .626
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 19.8%, L7 26.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 25.8%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/29 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 3.45
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +2.95 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -155, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 (-118) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	7.5	-127	-102	-
BetRivers	7.5	-129	-104	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-130	+100	-
DK	7.5	-118	-108	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 36.5% vs 17% min; cushion +2.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 12.4, proj 10.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 37.7% | put-away% 31.7% | xwOBA 0.220 | top pitch: Curveball (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 97 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .487
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 97 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.2%, L7 16.1%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.2%/7 hitters, BVP 35.0%/97 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 8.88
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.7 ppts (recent 32.2% vs season 38.9%, proj adj -3.3%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 10% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 3.5 (-138) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	3.5	-143	+108	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-138	+109	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 35.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.8% / under 45.2%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Painter: K/9 8.1, proj 4.7K over 5.1 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 16 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .402
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 16.4%, L7 21.1%, season 19.2%, active roster 16.0%/6 hitters, BVP 37.5%/16 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 16.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 21.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 16.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.25
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
K% trend: support +3.9 ppts (recent 23.6% vs season 19.7%, proj adj +2.0%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -138, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 4.5 (-145) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-145	+113	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 31.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.8% / under 44.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 8.1, proj 5.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.3% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .727
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.6%, L7 20.5%, season 23.8%, active roster 26.3%/6 hitters (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.5%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.67 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 2/6 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 4.5 (-160) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	4.5	-150	+112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-160	+125	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.1% / under 41.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Noah Cameron: K/9 7.4, proj 5.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 37.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.0%, L7 24.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -160 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 6.5 (-139) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-135	+100	Recommended
BetOnline	6.5	-141	+109	-
BetRivers	6.5	-150	+112	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	-
DK	6.5	-139	+109	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-154	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 25.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Reid Detmers: K/9 9.6, proj 8.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 55 PA | K% 32.7% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .264 | OPS .593
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.0%, L7 24.0%, season 24.7%, BVP 32.7%/55 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.44
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 6.5; cold exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -139, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (16 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jacob Lopez Over 5.5 (-119) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-123	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-119	-107	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-122	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 24.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Jacob Lopez: K/9 9.5, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Slider: 35.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 57 PA | K% 24.6% | BB% 17.5% | AVG .233 | OPS .731
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.7%, L7 19.6%, season 22.7%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 24.6%/57 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 4.36
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.44 vs season
K% trend: support +8.6 ppts (recent 30.4% vs season 21.8%, proj adj +4.3%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 (-151) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
DK	17.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 21.078 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 20.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.9 IP (xFIP 2.16 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.9 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 97 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .487
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.2%, L7 16.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 35.0%/97 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.1%, L7 8.4%, season 10.7%, BVP 9.3%/97 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 18.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Cody Bradford Under 17.5 (-101) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-108	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 14.309000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 50%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.50 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .333 | OPS .878
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 27.3%, L7 24.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.7%, L7 7.3%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.7%/45 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 15.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/5 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-146) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.08, BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.0%, L7 24.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 5.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Landen Roupp Under 5.5 (-160) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.42, BB% 11.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 14 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .468
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Cody Bradford Over 0.5 (-223) diff 217.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 64.7% / Under 35.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -223 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5893366998101788 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 64.7% / under 35.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .333 | OPS .878
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 27.3%, L7 24.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.7%, L7 7.3%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.7%/45 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/5 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-223); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brandon Williamson Over 1.5 (-165) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.168981515865231 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 4.4 IP (BB% 11.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Williamson: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.2%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.6%, L7 8.0%, season 9.3% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.33 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/6 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Andrew Painter Under 2.5 (-185) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8040682110786916 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 27.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.2% / under 60.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 16 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .402
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 16.4%, L7 21.1%, season 19.2%, BVP 37.5%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 10.3%, L7 7.2%, season 8.8%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-185) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Dean Kremer Over 1.5 (-182) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8367574989858848 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 125 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .330 | OPS 1.011
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.2%, L7 26.3%, season 22.7%, BVP 16.8%/125 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.6%, L7 5.5%, season 9.2%, BVP 9.6%/125 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Drew Anderson Over 1.5 (-176) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7880527098313435 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .158 | OPS .483
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.7%, L7 16.7%, season 20.9%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 7.9%, L7 9.5%, season 8.6%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 11/45 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-176); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Davis Martin Over 1.5 (-155) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.95 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 6.29)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 74 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .298 | OPS .825
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.0%, L7 23.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 16.2%/74 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (-174) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.96)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .273 | OPS .727
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 24.6%, L7 20.5%, season 23.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/6 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-130) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.42 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 5.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.8%, L7 21.6%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Anderson Under 2.5 (-148) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.55 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 3.69, ERA 3.55)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .158 | OPS .483
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.7%, L7 16.7%, season 20.9%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 41/45 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-161) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.07 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.51, ERA 2.83)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 55 PA | K% 32.7% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .264 | OPS .593
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.0%, L7 24.0%, season 24.7%, BVP 32.7%/55 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (-133) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.72 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 3.32, ERA 2.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .176 | OPS .498
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.9%, season 20.7%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (57 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 20 play(s) (B 3 | C 17)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 6.5 (-108) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	6.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-108	-118	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-102	-125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 22.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.9, proj 7.9K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 33.8% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.254 | top pitch: Changeup (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 27.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 117 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .243 | OPS .686
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 117 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 15.9%, L7 18.8%, season 21.3%, active roster 18.3%/7 hitters, BVP 22.2%/117 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 18.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 22/25 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.90 | Season Avg 8.68
Prop trend: K L10: 10/10 over 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Casey Mize Under 4.5 (-107) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-104	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Casey Mize: K/9 6.7, proj 4.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Split-Finger (30% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.4%, L7 23.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.57
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
K% trend: headwind -11.0 ppts (recent 10.5% vs season 21.5%, proj adj -5.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cam Schlittler Over 7.5 (-133) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	7.5	-139	+107	-
BetRivers	7.5	-134	+100	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-145	+110	-
DK	7.5	-133	+104	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	-138	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.7K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 2.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.8% / under 46.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.5, proj 7.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 36.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .831
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.4%, L7 23.9%, season 25.1% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.80 | Season Avg 7.18
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cody Bradford Under 4.5 (+120) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-149	+115	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-154	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.98K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.2% / under 42.8%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cody Bradford: K/9 6.3, proj 3.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.3% | put-away% 11.1% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Changeup (22% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .333 | OPS .878
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 27.3%, L7 24.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: K L10: 4/5 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Justin Hagenman Over 3.5 (+119) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -175 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -175 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 3.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-175	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+128	-167	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	3.5	+125	-165	-
DK	3.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 20.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Hagenman: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 16.3%, split 15.3%, L7 16.6%, season 18.5%, active roster 15.5%/6 hitters (adj 0.84x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 15.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: K: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jared Jones Over 4.5 (-165) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-164	+125	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
DK	4.5	-165	+129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-162	+126	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jared Jones: K/9 10.5, proj 5.3K over 4.5 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.1% | put-away% 22.8% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.8%, L7 21.6%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 4.5 (+125) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	+125	-160	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+130	-166	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grant Holmes: K/9 6.6, proj 5.2K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 52 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .225 | OPS .800
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.3%, L7 20.5%, season 21.6%, BVP 30.8%/52 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/26 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.96
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (-108) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-108	-118	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.70K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Dean Kremer: K/9 8.4, proj 5.2K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 44.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 125 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .330 | OPS 1.011
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 125 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.2%, L7 26.3%, season 22.7%, BVP 16.8%/125 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (+128) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -154 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -154 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+141	-185	-
BetRivers	5.5	+123	-165	-
DK	5.5	+128	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Eury Perez: K/9 10.0, proj 6.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.8%, L7 20.3%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.92
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Landen Roupp Over 4.5 (-157) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.67 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-156	+120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-150	+118	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-160	+115	-
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.66K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Landen Roupp: K/9 8.0, proj 5.2K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 14 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .468
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.32 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.6 ppts (recent 15.8% vs season 22.4%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 4.5 (-108) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-115	-112	-
BetRivers	4.5	-122	-108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	-108	-118	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bryce Miller: K/9 8.4, proj 5.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: Split-Finger (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Split-Finger: 25.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 52 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .277 | OPS .793
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 20.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.0%/52 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.7 ppts (recent 18.8% vs season 24.5%, proj adj -2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 4.5 (-118) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Joey Cantillo: K/9 9.2, proj 4.9K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.5% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.000
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 16.6%, L7 17.3%, season 19.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 17.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Williamson Over 3.5 (+114) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	3.5	+102	-132	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+114	-145	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Brandon Williamson: K/9 7.2, proj 3.8K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 13.7% | xwOBA 0.389 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Williamson: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.2%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/6 (33%) | L20 2/6 (33%) | Season 2/6 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.17 | Season Avg 3.17
Prop trend: K L10: 2/6 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Davis Martin Over 3.5 (-115) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Davis Martin: K/9 7.5, proj 3.7K over 4.6 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Davis Martin: 74 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .298 | OPS .825
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 20.0%, L7 23.7%, season 21.7%, active roster 18.9%/7 hitters, BVP 16.2%/74 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 4.62
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.82 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.3 ppts (recent 15.6% vs season 20.9%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Patrick Sandoval Under 5.5 (-129) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	5.5	+104	-135	-
BetRivers	5.5	+100	-132	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+101	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Patrick Sandoval: K/9 9.4, proj 5.2K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.344 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 27.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 77 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .254 | OPS .833
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.3%, L7 28.1%, season 23.4%, active roster 21.1%/6 hitters, BVP 14.3%/77 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Seattle Mariners 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 28.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/9 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-114) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	-112	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Tomoyuki Sugano: K/9 5.8, proj 3.4K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.8% | put-away% 11.8% | xwOBA 0.392 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Split-Finger: 27.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.12
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 4.5 (-131) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -131

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+104	-135	-
BetRivers	4.5	+100	-134	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	+103	-131	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
David Peterson: K/9 8.6, proj 4.3K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 74 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .215 | OPS .640
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.6%, L7 18.9%, season 21.4%, active roster 21.8%/6 hitters, BVP 18.9%/74 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Milwaukee Brewers 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.04
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 23.3% vs season 19.6%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Anderson Over 4.5 (+122) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	4.5	+124	-161	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Drew Anderson: K/9 9.2, proj 4.6K over 4.4 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .158 | OPS .483
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.7%, L7 16.7%, season 20.9%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 5/45 (11%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.6 ppts (recent 19.4% vs season 26.0%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 (+106) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 +114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 +114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-130	-
BetRivers	5.5	+114	-152	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Trevor Rogers: K/9 8.7, proj 5.6K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 24.3%, L7 20.4%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 4.84
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
K% trend: support +6.7 ppts (recent 27.6% vs season 20.9%, proj adj +3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 (+103) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-105	-
BetRivers	6.5	-130	-103	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-135	+105	-
DK	6.5	-132	+103	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-136	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 0.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 9.2, proj 6.5K over 6.4 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Split-Finger: 12.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .176 | OPS .498
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.9%, season 20.7%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.38
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 107 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.91) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-125) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 17.83 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 18.5 +114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-130	-110	-
FanDuel	18.5	+114	-154	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.832 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 19.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.73 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 17.83 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 117 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .243 | OPS .686
Opponent K profile: composite 18.6%, split 15.9%, L7 18.8%, season 21.3%, BVP 22.2%/117 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.6%, L7 8.5%, season 9.6%, BVP 6.8%/117 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.10 | Season Avg 18.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.06 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 (-107) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	-110	-130	-
DK	18.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 21.883999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 18.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.32 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 19 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .176 | OPS .498
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.9%, season 20.7%, BVP 31.6%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.6%, L7 6.4%, season 8.4%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.90 | Season Avg 19.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Over 17.5 (-135) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
DK	17.5	-135	+101	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.096999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.6% / under 46.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 55 PA | K% 32.7% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .264 | OPS .593
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.0%, L7 24.0%, season 24.7%, BVP 32.7%/55 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.0%, L7 7.0%, season 9.7%, BVP 3.6%/55 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 17.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-176) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -176

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
DK	17.5	-176	+132	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.862000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 36.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .831
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.4%, L7 23.9%, season 25.1% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 11.7%, L7 9.2%, season 8.3% (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 (+101) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
DK	17.5	-134	+101	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.525000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 24.3%, L7 20.4%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 8.2%, L7 10.7%, season 8.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 16.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-143) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-143	+108	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.288 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.11 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 111
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.0%, L7 24.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.4%, L7 10.3%, season 9.2% (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.70 | Season Avg 17.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (+112) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	-
DK	5.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.21, BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 24.3%, L7 20.4%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Miller Under 5.5 (-149) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.27, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 52 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .277 | OPS .793
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 20.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.0%/52 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 6.5 (-139) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	+105	-145	-
DK	6.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	6.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.1 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.29 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.52, BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cody Bradford Over 5.5 (+113) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.12 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .333 | OPS .878
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 27.3%, L7 24.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/5 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — David Peterson Over 5.5 (+112) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+112	-149	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.19 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.59, BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 74 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .215 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 22.6%, L7 18.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.9%/74 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 (-145) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2206388148769556 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 4.8 IP (BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 10.7%, L7 10.0%, season 9.9% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Patrick Sandoval Under 2.5 (-171) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0758148343808815 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 77 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .254 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.3%, L7 28.1%, season 23.4%, BVP 14.3%/77 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 9.8%, L7 9.8%, season 9.0%, BVP 6.5%/77 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.44 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/9 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Lopez Over 2.5 (+120) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8424171747903304 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.49 over 5.1 IP (BB% 11.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 57 PA | K% 24.6% | BB% 17.5% | AVG .233 | OPS .731
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.7%, L7 19.6%, season 22.7%, BVP 24.6%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 8.8%, L7 11.3%, season 8.8%, BVP 17.5%/57 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Casey Mize Under 1.5 (-156) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2968500712415252 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 4.8 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.4%, L7 23.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.7%, L7 8.7%, season 9.5% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-106) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6426122554090494 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.2 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.8%, L7 21.6%, season 21.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 8.3%, L7 11.3%, season 7.3% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bryce Miller Under 1.5 (-104) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.369791880357478 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.0 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 52 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .277 | OPS .793
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 20.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.0%/52 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 7.3%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 9.6%/52 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trevor Rogers Over 1.5 (+149) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5488402626686701 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.6% / under 62.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 24.3%, L7 20.4%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 8.2%, L7 10.7%, season 8.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Landen Roupp Over 2.5 (+110) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.5579110085677224 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 4.9 IP (BB% 11.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 14 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .468
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.4%, L7 8.8%, season 9.1% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (+100) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.77 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.16, ERA 1.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 97 PA | K% 35.0% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .487
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.2%, L7 16.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 35.0%/97 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Under 2.5 (-114) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.15 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.29, ERA 4.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.4%, L7 23.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-152) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.67 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.99, ERA 3.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.8%, L7 20.3%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Williamson Over 2.5 (+100) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.75 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.99, ERA 5.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Williamson: 11 PA | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.2%, L7 22.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.17 | Season Avg 3.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/6 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Under 2.5 (-116) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.11 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 5.51)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 52 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .277 | OPS .793
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 20.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.0%/52 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.07 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-152) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.17 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 4.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 14 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .468
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 22.3%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — David Peterson Under 2.5 (-138) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.37 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.03, ERA 4.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 74 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .215 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 22.6%, L7 18.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.9%/74 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Griffin Jax Over 1.5 (+137) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.50 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.32, ERA 3.68)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Griffin Jax: 31 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .626
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 19.8%, L7 26.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 25.8%/31 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/29 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (-135) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.42 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 2.92, ERA 2.20)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 36.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .831
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.4%, L7 23.9%, season 25.1% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 (-143) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.18 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.78, ERA 6.41)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .000 | OPS .167
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.9%, L7 24.5%, season 24.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cody Bradford Over 2.5 (+121) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.51 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .333 | OPS .878
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 27.3%, L7 24.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/5 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Under 2.5 (+112) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.19 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 4.53)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .000 | OPS .091
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 24.3%, L7 20.4%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (+108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.89 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.48, ERA 5.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 16 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .402
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 16.4%, L7 21.1%, season 19.2%, BVP 37.5%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Hagenman Under 2.5 (-158) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Hagenman: 6 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 16.5%, split 15.3%, L7 16.6%, season 18.5% (adj 0.84x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Under 2.5 (-140) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.11, ERA 3.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 18.0%, L7 24.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (-161) Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.41 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 5.04, ERA 4.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 57 PA | K% 24.6% | BB% 17.5% | AVG .233 | OPS .731
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.7%, L7 19.6%, season 22.7%, BVP 24.6%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Patrick Sandoval Under 2.5 (-172) Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.61 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 4.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 77 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .254 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 22.3%, L7 28.1%, season 23.4%, BVP 14.3%/77 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/9 (78%) | L20 7/9 (78%) | Season 7/9 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/9 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 2.5 (-129) Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.47 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 5.02)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 125 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .330 | OPS 1.011
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.2%, L7 26.3%, season 22.7%, BVP 16.8%/125 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	88.5	90.8	97.5	5	Curveball (44% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 37.7%, put-away 31.7%, xwOBA 0.220, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians	74.3	76.0	80.5	6	Changeup (50% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 33.8%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels	67.0	66.0	73.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees	62.4	63.3	65.5	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals	61.7	57.5	72.0	6	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants	61.5	68.6	56.0	4	Changeup (40% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox	60.0	51.9	69.0	7	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals	59.3	62.1	58.5	6	Slider (42% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	58.6	61.4	56.5	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Texas Rangers	58.1	50.6	64.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays	57.8	63.6	53.0	5	Changeup (40% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets	57.6	71.7	46.0	6	Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	56.9	57.9	55.5	5	Changeup (47% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds	56.2	50.9	62.5	5	Split-Finger (30% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates	52.2	49.2	56.5	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins	51.0	52.7	51.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies	50.9	46.6	55.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	49.4	54.3	45.0	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners	48.2	59.3	35.5	6	Changeup (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	47.4	49.4	43.0	7	Slider (37% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	45.7	49.5	42.0	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	45.7	50.9	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	44.8	39.0	51.0	5	Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	43.6	47.0	38.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taylor Clarke	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies	43.1	40.8	47.5	5	Slider (37% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	36.0	31.3	36.5	4	Changeup (22% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 11.1%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Brandon Williamson	Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	29.8	42.3	13.0	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles	24.0	31.1	11.5	7	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 11.8%, xwOBA 0.392, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Justin Hagenman	New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Taylor Clarke	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	21.6%	1.1	-	4.8	18	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Texas Rangers	L	24.8%	5.8	4.8	6.0	97	normal	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	R	17.3%	5.2	5.0	5.0	87	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies	L	23.2%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners	L	23.0%	5.1	5.0	5.1	86	short	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	20.9%	4.4	5.1	4.9	74	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	R	19.1%	3.8	5.2	4.9	64	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Brandon Williamson	Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	L	18.2%	4.5	4.7	5.0	76	short	full	13.00	87.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.6%	4.4	4.9	4.8	74	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles	R	14.4%	4.6	5.2	5.1	77	short	full	11.50	88.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	23.7%	4.3	4.2	4.6	72	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	R	22.0%	5.4	5.4	5.5	91	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins	L	20.3%	6.6	5.7	5.9	111	deep	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees	L	27.1%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	26.1%	6.3	6.6	6.5	106	deep	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals	R	27.2%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	R	36.5%	6.2	6.0	6.1	104	deep	full	97.50	2.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	R	22.6%	5.2	5.2	5.2	87	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Justin Hagenman	New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.5%, season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels	R	31.2%	5.3	5.8	6.0	89	normal	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.1%	5.4	4.9	5.0	91	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants	R	25.4%	4.0	4.5	4.4	67	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds	R	17.7%	4.5	5.2	5.1	76	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	20.1%	4.9	5.4	5.3	82	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.5%	4.9	5.6	5.4	82	short	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets	R	27.1%	5.2	4.6	4.7	87	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	L	16.3%	5.1	5.3	5.4	86	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians	R	36.0%	6.1	6.0	6.0	102	deep	full	80.50	19.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	R	23.3%	1.9	2.1	3.8	32	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.9 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	21.1	3.6	20.4%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.1	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Cody Bradford	Cody Bradford Under	Athletics @ Texas Rangers	17.5	14.3	-3.2	18.2%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.4	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	20.8	3.3	19.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) \| split consensus 50% (3 books)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	21.9	3.4	18.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	18.9	1.4	7.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.9	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 6 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes