| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 609 | 55% | -24.43u | 31 | 58% | +0.34u | 285 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 530 | 58% | +7.73u | 25 | 60% | +0.55u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 15 | 87% | +2.51u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 663 | 56% | -31.71u | 55 | 55% | -4.53u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 450 | 61% | -3.90u | 32 | 75% | +7.01u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 131 | 47% | -15.70u | 3 | 33% | -0.79u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 4 | 75% | +1.14u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | 88.5 | 90.8 | 97.5 | 5 | Curveball (44% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 37.7%, put-away 31.7%, xwOBA 0.220, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians | 74.3 | 76.0 | 80.5 | 6 | Changeup (50% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 33.8%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels | 67.0 | 66.0 | 73.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees | 62.4 | 63.3 | 65.5 | 5 | Curveball (39% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | 61.7 | 57.5 | 72.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | 61.5 | 68.6 | 56.0 | 4 | Changeup (40% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | 60.0 | 51.9 | 69.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (34% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals | 59.3 | 62.1 | 58.5 | 6 | Slider (42% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Anderson | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | 58.6 | 61.4 | 56.5 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Texas Rangers | 58.1 | 50.6 | 64.5 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays | 57.8 | 63.6 | 53.0 | 5 | Changeup (40% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets | 57.6 | 71.7 | 46.0 | 6 | Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hayden Wesneski | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | 56.9 | 57.9 | 55.5 | 5 | Changeup (47% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Mize | San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds | 56.2 | 50.9 | 62.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (30% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.2 | 49.2 | 56.5 | 5 | Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins | 51.0 | 52.7 | 51.0 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies | 50.9 | 46.6 | 55.5 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Dean Kremer | Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | 49.4 | 54.3 | 45.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (38% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | 48.2 | 59.3 | 35.5 | 6 | Changeup (41% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 47.4 | 49.4 | 43.0 | 7 | Slider (37% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | 45.7 | 49.5 | 42.0 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 45.7 | 50.9 | 41.0 | 6 | Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brad Lord | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | 44.8 | 39.0 | 51.0 | 5 | Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | 43.6 | 47.0 | 38.5 | 5 | Curveball (34% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Taylor Clarke | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies | 43.1 | 40.8 | 47.5 | 5 | Slider (37% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cody Bradford | Texas Rangers vs Athletics | 36.0 | 31.3 | 36.5 | 4 | Changeup (22% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 11.1%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Williamson | Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | 29.8 | 42.3 | 13.0 | 6 | Changeup (38% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles | 24.0 | 31.1 | 11.5 | 7 | Split-Finger (31% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 11.8%, xwOBA 0.392, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Justin Hagenman | New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Clarke | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 21.6% | 1.1 | - | 4.8 | 18 | short | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.1 IP/start |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Texas Rangers | L | 24.8% | 5.8 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | R | 17.3% | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 87 | normal | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies | L | 23.2% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 94 | normal | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | L | 23.0% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 35.50 | 64.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 20.9% | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 74 | short | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | R | 19.1% | 3.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 64 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.8 IP/start |
| Brandon Williamson | Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | L | 18.2% | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 13.00 | 87.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 23.6% | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 74 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 14.4% | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 77 | short | full | 11.50 | 88.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Drew Anderson | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | R | 23.7% | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 72 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Hayden Wesneski | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | R | 22.0% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins | L | 20.3% | 6.6 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 111 | deep | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees | L | 27.1% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 26.1% | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 106 | deep | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals | R | 27.2% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | R | 36.5% | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 104 | deep | full | 97.50 | 2.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Dean Kremer | Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | R | 22.6% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 87 | normal | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Justin Hagenman | New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.5%, season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 31.2% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | 73.50 | 26.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 21.1% | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 91 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | R | 25.4% | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 67 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Casey Mize | San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 17.7% | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 76 | short | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 20.1% | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | R | 22.5% | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 82 | short | full | 69.00 | 31.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets | R | 27.1% | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 87 | normal | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cody Bradford | Texas Rangers vs Athletics | L | 16.3% | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 36.0% | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 80.50 | 19.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Brad Lord | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | R | 23.3% | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 32 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.9 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Jacob Misiorowski Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 21.1 | 3.6 | 20.4% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | deep | 6.1 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Cody Bradford | Cody Bradford Under | Athletics @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 14.3 | -3.2 | 18.2% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.4 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 20.8 | 3.3 | 19.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 18.5 | 21.9 | 3.4 | 18.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 106 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree |
| Reid Detmers | Reid Detmers Over | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 7.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Trevor Rogers | Trevor Rogers Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Noah Cameron | Noah Cameron Over | Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 18.3 | 0.8 | 4.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.9 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ Featured | ⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -155, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Griffin Jax Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 6.5 | -155 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 44.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 10% usage pitch | K Prop | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 7.5 | 10.2 | -118 | DK Over 7.5 -118 | exact | 36.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -138, expected IP 5.1 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Andrew Painter Over | PHI@DIA | 3:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.7 | -138 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price | 35.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade… | K Prop | Hayden Wesneski Over | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.9 | -145 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | best price | 31.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -160 | K Prop | Noah Cameron Over | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -160 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -146 | best price | 26.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -139, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch | K Prop | Reid Detmers Over | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 6.5 | 8.2 | -139 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 | best price | 25.4% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs LHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Jacob Lopez Over | ATH@RAN | 2:36 PM | 5.5 | 6.8 | -119 | DK Over 5.5 -119 | exact | 24.1% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Outs | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 21.1 | -151 | DK Over 17.5 -151 | exact | 20.4% | ✓✓✓––– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Cody Bradford Under | ATH@RAN | 2:36 PM | 17.5 | 14.3 | -101 | DK Under 17.5 -101 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Cameron Under | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -146 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -160 | DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓✓––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-223); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Cody Bradford Over | ATH@RAN | 2:36 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -223 | DK Over 0.5 -223 | exact | 217.9% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Williamson Over | PAD@RED | 12:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -165 | DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact | 44.6% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Painter Under | PHI@DIA | 3:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -185 | DK Under 2.5 -185 | exact | 27.8% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Dean Kremer Over | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -182 | DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact | 22.4% | ✓!!––✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-176); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Drew Anderson Over | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -176 | DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact | 19.2% | ✓!!––✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Davis Martin Over | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Hayden Wesneski Over | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -174 | DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jared Jones Over | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -130 | DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Anderson Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -148 | DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!––✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Reid Detmers Over | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -161 | DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | CAR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -133 | DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.9 | -108 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | best price | 22.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Cody Bradford Under | ATH@RAN | 2:36 PM | 4.5 | 3.5 | +120 | DK Under 4.5 +120 | exact | 21.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Justin Hagenman Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | +119 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -175 | alt rescue | 20.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jared Jones Over | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -165 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | best price | 17.8% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | BRA@NAT | 1:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | +125 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +130 | best price | 15.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Dean Kremer Over | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -108 | DK Over 4.5 -108 | exact | 15.7% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eury Perez Over | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | +128 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -154 | alt rescue | 15.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Landen Roupp Over | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -157 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -150 | best price | 14.8% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@SOX | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -108 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -106 | best price | 12.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Joey Cantillo Over | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -118 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -115 | best price | 8.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Williamson Over | PAD@RED | 12:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | +114 | DK Over 3.5 +114 | exact | 7.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Davis Martin Over | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | -115 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -113 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Patrick Sandoval Under | MAR@SOX | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -129 | DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | ORI@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -114 | DK Under 3.5 -114 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | David Peterson Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -131 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 | best price | 4.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Drew Anderson Over | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +122 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor Rogers Over | ORI@ROC | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +106 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +114 | best price | 1.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under | CAR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | +103 | FanDuel Under 6.5 +106 | best price | 0.7% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.8 | -125 | DK Over 17.5 -125 | exact | 19.0% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Outs | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | CAR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 18.5 | 21.9 | -107 | DK Over 18.5 -107 | exact | 18.3% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Reid Detmers Over | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -135 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 17.5 | 18.9 | -176 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price | 7.8% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@ROC | 3:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | +101 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +104 | best price | 5.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Noah Cameron Over | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.3 | -143 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price | 4.5% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@ROC | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | +112 | DK Under 5.5 +112 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bryce Miller Under | MAR@SOX | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -149 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | ORI@ROC | 3:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.1 | -139 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -120 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cody Bradford Over | ATH@RAN | 2:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +113 | DK Over 5.5 +113 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | David Peterson Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +112 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | ORI@ROC | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -145 | DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact | 18.6% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Patrick Sandoval Under | MAR@SOX | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -171 | DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact | 17.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Jacob Lopez Over | ATH@RAN | 2:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +120 | DK Over 2.5 +120 | exact | 13.7% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Casey Mize Under | PAD@RED | 12:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -156 | DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact | 13.5% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jared Jones Over | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -106 | DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact | 9.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Bryce Miller Under | MAR@SOX | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -104 | DK Under 1.5 -104 | exact | 8.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Trevor Rogers Over | ORI@ROC | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +149 | DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact | 3.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Landen Roupp Over | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +110 | DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact | 2.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob Misiorowski Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | +100 | DK Under 1.5 +100 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Casey Mize Under | PAD@RED | 12:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -114 | DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Under | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -152 | DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Williamson Over | PAD@RED | 12:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +100 | DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Miller Under | MAR@SOX | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -116 | DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -152 | DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | David Peterson Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -138 | DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Jax Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +137 | DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cam Schlittler Under | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -135 | DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | ORI@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -143 | DK Under 3.5 -143 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cody Bradford Over | ATH@RAN | 2:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +121 | DK Over 2.5 +121 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@ROC | 3:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +112 | DK Under 2.5 +112 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Painter Over | PHI@DIA | 3:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +108 | DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Justin Hagenman Under | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -158 | DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Cameron Under | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -140 | DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob Lopez Under | ATH@RAN | 2:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -161 | DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Patrick Sandoval Under | MAR@SOX | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -172 | DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dean Kremer Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -129 | DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact | - | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Casey Mize Under | PAD@RED | 12:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -107 | BetMGM Under 4.5 +105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Over | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 7.5 | 7.7 | -133 | DK Over 7.5 -133 | exact | 2.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context