MLB Bets 2026-09-01

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	138W–79L–0P	64%	+0.65 u	Last 14 days • 217 settled
Grade A	9W–6L–0P	60%	+0.57 u
Grade B	129W–73L–0P	64%	+0.08 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3772W–2366L–8P	61%	-262.91 u	All-time • 6146 settled
Grade A	270W–215L–0P	56%	-13.39 u
Grade B	3500W–2142L–8P	62%	-243.07 u

99 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	K Prop	AJ Smith-Shawver	4.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo	5.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	K Prop	Jesús Luzardo	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	K Prop	Logan Webb	4.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Freddy Peralta	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Gabriel Hughes	3.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Gavin Williams	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Gerrit Cole	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Jake Irvin	3.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Earned Run	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael McGreevy	3.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Earned Run	Troy Melton	2.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Bryan Woo	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jesús Luzardo	5.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Logan Webb	5.5	-103	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Hits Allow	Tyler Phillips	5.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Walks	Freddy Peralta	2.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Walks	Jake Irvin	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Walks	Matthew Boyd	1.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Walks	Nick Lodolo	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Walks	Randy Dobnak	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-01	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Phillips	1.5	-128	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-31	K Prop	Will Dion	3.5	-113	-	LOSS	-1.000	Will Dion: 1.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	605	55%	-23.83u	33	61%	+2.02u	285	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	526	58%	+8.24u	25	56%	-1.30u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	2	50%	-0.36u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	35	77%	-0.23u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	655	56%	-28.75u	52	58%	-1.62u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	444	61%	-4.83u	28	79%	+7.29u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	131	47%	-15.70u	3	33%	-0.79u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	2	0%	-2.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	2	0%	-2.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	7	86%	+3.50u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 605, 14d N 33	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 16 total candidate(s); season N 526, 14d N 25	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 2	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 131, 14d N 3	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 7	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 834 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 232 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 802 pitcher(s), 3571 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 595 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 1225 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Athletics, New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 356 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 15 line(s)/8 game(s); Earned Runs 26 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 121, bovada_direct 6, betmgm 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 376 market side(s) checked \| 376 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 641 \| batter bats 401 \| batter hand splits 138 \| pitcher HR splits 51 \| batter pitch-type 595 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow blocked: 205 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_ARTIFACT_MISSING

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-134	+125	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	+163	-176	1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	+116	-124	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+147	-158	1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-166	+154	-1.5 (-109)	1.5 (-111)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	+111	-119	1.5 (-207)	-1.5 (+169)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	+116	-124	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 10.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-107	+100	-1.5 (+147)	1.5 (-178)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+106	-114	-1.5 (+159)	1.5 (-193)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+174	-187	1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-116	+108	-1.5 (+144)	1.5 (-175)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-144	+119	-1.5 (+104)	1.5 (-126)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-191	+157	-1.5 (-108)	1.5 (-112)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-141	+117	-1.5 (+124)	1.5 (-149)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+147	-179	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 22 Grade B | 74 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Gabriel Hughes Over

Projection: 3.6Displayed: Over 3.5 -170Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.21Recommended: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.21

Pitcher Outs - Sean Manaea Under

Projection: 17.6Displayed: Under 18.5 -185Market line: majority 17.5 | avg 18Recommended: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -180 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 18 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Selected line 18.5 is split from majority 17.5 / avg 18

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (22 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 (-142) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-143	+110	-
BetRivers	5.5	-150	+114	-
DK	5.5	-142	+111	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	Recommended
BetMGM	6.5	+115	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 57.3% vs 17% min; cushion +3.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 11.6, proj 8.7K over 6.3 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.2% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.264 | top pitch: Sweeper (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 81 PA | K% 27.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .222 | OPS .614
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 81 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 15.1%, L7 20.2%, season 19.2%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters, BVP 27.2%/81 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/27 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.70 | Season Avg 7.52
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 34.6% vs season 30.3%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -142 -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jesús Luzardo Over 5.5 (-145) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 57.3% vs 17% min; cushion +3.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%)
Jesús Luzardo: K/9 11.6, proj 8.7K over 6.3 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.2% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.264 | top pitch: Sweeper (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 81 PA | K% 27.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .222 | OPS .614
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 81 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 15.1%, L7 20.2%, season 19.2%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters, BVP 27.2%/81 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/27 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.70 | Season Avg 7.52
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 34.6% vs season 30.3%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -145 -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Logan Webb Over 4.5 (-160) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-159	+122	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-160	+125	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	Recommended
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 38.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.75K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.1% / under 41.9%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Webb: K/9 7.5, proj 6.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 62 PA | K% 38.7% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .210 | OPS .521
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 22.5%, L7 29.9%, season 24.6%, BVP 38.7%/62 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -160 -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — AJ Smith-Shawver Under 4.5 (-146) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 4.1 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	-
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
DK	4.5	+114	-146	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-148	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 24.2% vs 17% min; cushion -1.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
AJ Smith-Shawver: K/9 7.7, proj 3.4K over 4.7 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.9% | put-away% 12.5% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Split-Finger (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Split-Finger: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .222 | OPS .611
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.3%, L7 20.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.33 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tyler Phillips Under 5.5 (-134) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 4.2 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .000 | OPS .143
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.9%, L7 20.7%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 25/32 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 3.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-135) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.04, BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 33 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .515
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.6%, season 21.2%, BVP 33.3%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-103) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-128	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.09, BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.93x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 62 PA | K% 38.7% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .210 | OPS .521
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 22.5%, L7 29.9%, season 24.6%, BVP 38.7%/62 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jesús Luzardo Under 5.5 (-165) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.72 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.04, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 81 PA | K% 27.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .222 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.1%, L7 20.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 27.2%/81 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Randy Dobnak Over 1.5 (-143) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-143	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0929953023995704 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.9 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.9% / under 45.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 15.1%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 9.8%, L7 11.5%, season 9.2% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jake Irvin Over 1.5 (-170) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-170	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.091866330957935 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 150 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .215 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.7%, BVP 18.7%/150 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 7.9%, L7 7.1%, season 7.8%, BVP 8.7%/150 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (-124) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0049573395165985 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 99 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .804
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.8%, L7 20.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.2%/99 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 11.7%, L7 9.0%, season 10.6%, BVP 9.1%/99 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nick Lodolo Over 1.5 (-131) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9466724638932127 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .170 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.4%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 9.3%, L7 8.5%, season 9.3%, BVP 14.0%/57 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tyler Phillips Over 1.5 (-128) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8848799161418452 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .000 | OPS .143
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.9%, L7 20.7%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.4%, L7 9.8%, season 8.4% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/32 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-145) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8941281169632995 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 77 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 16.9% | AVG .143 | OPS .603
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 19.8%, L7 25.1%, season 22.7%, BVP 28.6%/77 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 6.6%, L7 6.0%, season 8.4%, BVP 16.9%/77 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-152) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.62 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 5.35)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 77 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 16.9% | AVG .143 | OPS .603
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 19.8%, L7 25.1%, season 22.7%, BVP 28.6%/77 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-129) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.46 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 2.86, ERA 4.71)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.07x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 50 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .349 | OPS 1.138
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 18.4%, L7 13.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 14.0%/50 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-125) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.76 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.83, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 73 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .375 | OPS .976
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 31.6%, L7 23.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.3%/73 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Over 1.5 (-156) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.11 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.56, ERA 2.91)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 78 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .290 | OPS .865
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.3%, L7 24.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 25.6%/78 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gabriel Hughes Under 3.5 (-156) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 22.9% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.22 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.48, ERA 7.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 22.8%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 (-158) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.7 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 22.9% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.59 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 41 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .225 | OPS .519
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.1%, L7 19.3%, season 20.5%, BVP 19.5%/41 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Irvin Under 3.5 (-133) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.44 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 5.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 150 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .215 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.7%, BVP 18.7%/150 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 3.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-123) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.07 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.95, ERA 1.96)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 23 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS 1.075
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 17.6%, L7 16.2%, season 21.0%, BVP 13.0%/23 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (74 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 25 play(s) (B 2 | C 23)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (+100) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	3.5	+110	-143	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	+100	-132	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	-
DK	3.5	+100	-128	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 31.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tyler Phillips: K/9 8.3, proj 4.6K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 27.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .000 | OPS .143
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.9%, L7 20.7%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/32 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
K% trend: support +6.1 ppts (recent 25.0% vs season 18.9%, proj adj +3.0%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 (-128) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-128	-101	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.98K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Freddy Peralta: K/9 7.9, proj 5.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 77 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 16.9% | AVG .143 | OPS .603
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 19.8%, L7 25.1%, season 22.7%, BVP 28.6%/77 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.93
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Gasser Over 3.5 (-151) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+124	-
BetRivers	3.5	-157	+117	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-151	+118	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	-
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 24.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.84K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 9.0, proj 4.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Sweeper (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .747
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 22.3%, L7 14.5%, season 21.4%, active roster 20.2%/7 hitters, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 14.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.88
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 (-136) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -136

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	3.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 18.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Randy Vasquez: K/9 5.0, proj 2.9K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.1% | put-away% 13.1% | xwOBA 0.361 | top pitch: Cutter (21% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Cutter: 20.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Vásquez: 34 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 14.7% | AVG .414 | OPS 1.121
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.1%, L7 24.8%, season 25.4%, BVP 11.8%/34 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.92
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -1.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 (-138) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.4, proj 3.9K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.384 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .170 | OPS .644
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.4%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eric Lauer Under 3.5 (+126) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +126

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+150	-220	-
BetMGM	3.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-143	+110	-
BetRivers	3.5	-165	+123	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-161	+126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.2% / under 41.8%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Eric Lauer: K/9 6.3, proj 3.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.8% | put-away% 12.6% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 14 PA | K% 35.7% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .154 | OPS .599
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 17.4%, L7 23.2%, season 20.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 101 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 (+103) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
BetRivers	4.5	+104	-137	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+103	-131	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.60K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 7.5, proj 5.1K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Changeup (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 27.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 97 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .193 | OPS .552
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 97 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.7%, L7 19.4%, season 22.1%, active roster 20.4%/8 hitters, BVP 24.7%/97 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 24.2% vs season 18.0%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Over 5.5 (+109) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	+118	-157	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+130	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.1, proj 6.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 33 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .515
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.6%, season 21.2%, BVP 33.3%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.68
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Bradish Over 4.5 (-121) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-120	-108	-
BetRivers	4.5	-120	-112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-121	-106	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.6% / under 48.4%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kyle Bradish: K/9 7.9, proj 5.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.1%, L7 22.1%, season 22.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.22 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-141) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	5.5	+125	-167	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+111	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.66K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.8% / under 55.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 8.7, proj 4.8K over 5.1 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .150 | OPS .577
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 20.3%, L7 23.1%, season 24.6%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5
K% trend: support +5.2 ppts (recent 25.4% vs season 20.2%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Paul Skenes Under 6.5 (-133) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	6.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+104	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 11.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Paul Skenes: K/9 10.5, proj 5.8K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.2% | put-away% 22.4% | xwOBA 0.275 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.48
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Spencer Arrighetti Over 3.5 (-126) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-125	-103	-
BetRivers	3.5	-118	-112	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
DK	3.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-122	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Spencer Arrighetti: K/9 8.8, proj 3.9K over 4.5 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 22.0% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Curveball: 25.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 51 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 15.7% | AVG .210 | OPS .801
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.0%, L7 19.1%, season 21.4%, active roster 18.4%/7 hitters, BVP 17.6%/51 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.4% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ronel Blanco Over 4.5 (-109) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-106	-122	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	Recommended
DK	4.5	-109	-117	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.39K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Ronel Blanco: K/9 8.3, proj 4.9K over 4.6 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .781
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.6%, L7 21.7%, season 23.8%, active roster 26.2%/6 hitters, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.5%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/5 (20%) | L20 1/5 (20%) | Season 1/5 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/5 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Over 4.5 (-109) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-111	-116	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-109	-117	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.36K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Sean Manaea: K/9 9.0, proj 4.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 23.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .840
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.4%, split 16.3%, L7 16.3%, season 18.5%, active roster 15.5%/6 hitters, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 16.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 16.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/28 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 4.29
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Burke Under 5.5 (-123) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-106	-122	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-104	-123	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.36K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.0% / under 52.0%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Sean Burke: K/9 9.1, proj 5.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.7% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 46 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .326 | OPS .928
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.9%, L7 21.8%, season 21.7%, active roster 18.9%/7 hitters, BVP 21.7%/46 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.96
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.9 ppts (recent 19.4% vs season 26.3%, proj adj -3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gavin Williams Under 6.5 (-145) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.21 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 5.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	5.5	-150	+112	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	6.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	6.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+114	-145	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+122	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Gavin Williams: K/9 13.1, proj 6.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.1% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Sweeper (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 50 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .349 | OPS 1.138
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 18.4%, L7 13.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 14.0%/50 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.70 | Season Avg 7.56
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 36.0% vs season 32.3%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (+101) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	+104	-135	-
BetRivers	3.5	+102	-136	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	+101	-128	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.0% / under 53.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.8, proj 3.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.2% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Changeup (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 41 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .225 | OPS .519
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.1%, L7 19.3%, season 20.5%, BVP 19.5%/41 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.77
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 (-114) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	6.5	-109	-119	-
BetRivers	6.5	-109	-122	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
DK	6.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-104	-122	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Gerrit Cole: K/9 9.6, proj 6.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Slider: 37.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 78 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .290 | OPS .865
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.3%, L7 24.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 25.6%/78 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 6.18
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gabriel Hughes Over 3.5 (-170) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-170	+133	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+130	-169	-
BetRivers	4.5	+128	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.5% / under 40.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.83
Gabriel Hughes: K/9 7.3, proj 3.6K over 4.8 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.7% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (17% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 24.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 22.8%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 (+113) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
BetRivers	4.5	+108	-143	-
DK	4.5	+113	-144	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Matthew Boyd: K/9 6.2, proj 4.6K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 99 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .804
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 99 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.8%, L7 20.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.2%/99 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.4 ppts (recent 12.6% vs season 19.0%, proj adj -3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jake Irvin Under 4.5 (-137) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+108	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.4% / under 54.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jake Irvin: K/9 8.9, proj 4.4K over 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 150 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .215 | OPS .656
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 150 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.7%, active roster 21.2%/7 hitters, BVP 18.7%/150 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.82
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Boyd Over 4.5 (+100) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 6.2, proj 4.6K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 99 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .804
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 99 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.8%, L7 20.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.2%/99 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.4 ppts (recent 12.6% vs season 19.0%, proj adj -3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 4.5 (+112) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Troy Melton: K/9 7.0, proj 4.6K over 6.0 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.287 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 23 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS 1.075
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 17.6%, L7 16.2%, season 21.0%, BVP 13.0%/23 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 (+102) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	6.5	-103	-125	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 10.0, proj 6.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.2% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 73 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .375 | OPS .976
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 73 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 31.6%, L7 23.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.3%/73 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.89
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Randy Dobnak Over 3.5 (-119) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	3.5	-110	-121	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-105	-125	-
DK	3.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-102	-125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Randy Dobnak: K/9 7.0, proj 3.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 12.6% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 15.1%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.40
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (B 1 | C 9)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-125) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 17.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
DK	17.5	-125	-106	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-108	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.569999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.95 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 23 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS 1.075
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 17.6%, L7 16.2%, season 21.0%, BVP 13.0%/23 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 7.8%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/23 PA (adj 0.89x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 18.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 18.5 (+104) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	18.5	+104	-138	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+116	-158	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 20.83 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 12.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 112, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 112
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 81 PA | K% 27.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .222 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.1%, L7 20.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 27.2%/81 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.3%, L7 8.3%, season 8.9%, BVP 11.1%/81 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.70 | Season Avg 18.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesús Luzardo Over 18.5 (+105) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.83 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 12.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 112, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 112
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 81 PA | K% 27.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .222 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.1%, L7 20.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 27.2%/81 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.3%, L7 8.3%, season 8.9%, BVP 11.1%/81 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.70 | Season Avg 18.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 (-114) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 15.812 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.83 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 73 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .375 | OPS .976
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 31.6%, L7 23.3%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.3%/73 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.0%, L7 5.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 11.0%/73 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 16.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Over 17.5 (-188) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -188

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
DK	17.5	-188	+141	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+132	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.159 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.56 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.1% / under 38.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 78 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .290 | OPS .865
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.3%, L7 24.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 25.6%/78 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.8%, L7 9.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 10.3%/78 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 (-173) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
DK	17.5	-173	+130	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.721 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 97 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .193 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.7%, L7 19.4%, season 22.1%, BVP 24.7%/97 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.2%, L7 8.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 9.3%/97 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Manaea Under 18.5 (-185) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 18 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 17.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	17.5	-182	+134	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+140	-180	Recommended
DK	18.5	+138	-185	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.649 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.24 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 18 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .840
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.3%, L7 16.3%, season 18.5%, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.3%, L7 7.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.7%/30 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 25/28 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 13.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +4.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gavin Williams Under 17.5 (+109) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.029 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.86 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 70, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 70
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 50 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .349 | OPS 1.138
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 18.4%, L7 13.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 14.0%/50 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.5%, L7 8.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 12.0%/50 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 16.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 17.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Over 18.5 (+114) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+115	-155	-
DK	18.5	+114	-152	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+134	-186	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.746000000000002 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.76 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 62 PA | K% 38.7% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .210 | OPS .521
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 22.5%, L7 29.9%, season 24.6%, BVP 38.7%/62 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.5%, L7 9.3%, season 9.1%, BVP 4.8%/62 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 18.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Over 17.5 (-114) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.666999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.70 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 33 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .515
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.6%, season 21.2%, BVP 33.3%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 7.3%, L7 9.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/33 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 17.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Irvin Under 5.5 (-109) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.47, BB% 10.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 150 PA | K% 18.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .215 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.8%, L7 22.4%, season 21.7%, BVP 18.7%/150 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-102) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-118	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 97 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .193 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.7%, L7 19.4%, season 22.1%, BVP 24.7%/97 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (-125) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .840
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.3%, L7 16.3%, season 18.5%, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/28 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 4.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Troy Melton Under 5.5 (-125) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.09, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.12x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 23 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS 1.075
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 17.6%, L7 16.2%, season 21.0%, BVP 13.0%/23 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gabriel Hughes Under 5.5 (-109) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-121	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.13 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.51, BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 22.8%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Robert Gasser Over 5.5 (-112) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-112	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.14 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 22.3%, L7 14.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (+106) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
DK	5.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 99 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .804
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.8%, L7 20.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.2%/99 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 (-108) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.24 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.63, BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.6% / under 51.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .170 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.4%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matt Boyd Over 5.5 (-145) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 99 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .804
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.8%, L7 20.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.2%/99 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Randy Dobnak Under 5.5 (-118) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-113	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.43, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 15.1%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Over 5.5 (-114) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-118	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.35, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 41 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .225 | OPS .519
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.1%, L7 19.3%, season 20.5%, BVP 19.5%/41 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/26 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 (+120) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-155	+115	-
DK	5.5	-159	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.51, BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.1%, L7 22.1%, season 22.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — AJ Smith-Shawver Over 1.5 (-105) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.054475410695489 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .222 | OPS .611
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.3%, L7 20.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 11.1%, L7 10.0%, season 9.1%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.67 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/3 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sean Manaea Over 1.5 (+121) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7740646708519732 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.7 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .840
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.3%, L7 16.3%, season 18.5%, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.3%, L7 7.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.7%/30 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-101) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6454329184725323 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 50 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .349 | OPS 1.138
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 18.4%, L7 13.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 14.0%/50 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.5%, L7 8.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 12.0%/50 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (-113) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6067609319509444 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.7 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 23 PA | K% 13.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS 1.075
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 17.6%, L7 16.2%, season 21.0%, BVP 13.0%/23 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 7.8%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/23 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 (+104) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6521035145159813 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.55 over 4.3 IP (BB% 12.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 51 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 15.7% | AVG .210 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.0%, L7 19.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 17.6%/51 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 9.7%, L7 8.3%, season 9.6%, BVP 15.7%/51 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Randy Vasquez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.5725342720420807 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.9 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Vásquez: 34 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 14.7% | AVG .414 | OPS 1.121
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.1%, L7 24.8%, season 25.4%, BVP 11.8%/34 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 11.2%, L7 8.0%, season 9.5%, BVP 14.7%/34 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 10/26 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Over 1.5 (-106) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.5496395463183612 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 62 PA | K% 38.7% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .210 | OPS .521
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 22.5%, L7 29.9%, season 24.6%, BVP 38.7%/62 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.5%, L7 9.3%, season 9.1%, BVP 4.8%/62 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robert Gasser Under 1.5 (-164) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4613529444005724 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 22.3%, L7 14.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.5%, L7 8.6%, season 10.7%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Paul Skenes Under 1.5 (-123) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.495580484400987 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.0 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 8.2%, L7 10.0%, season 7.2% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Manaea Over 2.5 (-107) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.59 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 4.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.0 outs/6.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .840
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 16.3%, L7 16.3%, season 18.5%, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/28 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-114) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.24 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.25, ERA 4.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Phillips Under 2.5 (-102) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 3.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .000 | OPS .143
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.9%, L7 20.7%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 27/32 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Lodolo Over 2.5 (-114) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.84 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.79, ERA 5.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .170 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 20.4%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 (-103) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.85 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 5.00, ERA 6.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Spencer Arrighetti: 51 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 15.7% | AVG .210 | OPS .801
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 16.0%, L7 19.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 17.6%/51 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.32 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Over 2.5 (-119) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 4.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 99 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .261 | OPS .804
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.8%, L7 20.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 21.2%/99 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-174) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.48 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 2.92, ERA 2.48)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 81 PA | K% 27.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .222 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 15.1%, L7 20.2%, season 19.2%, BVP 27.2%/81 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-136) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.57 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.76, ERA 3.42)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 62 PA | K% 38.7% | BB% 4.8% | AVG .210 | OPS .521
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 22.5%, L7 29.9%, season 24.6%, BVP 38.7%/62 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Dobnak Under 2.5 (-118) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.83 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 2.80)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 15.1%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 8/10 (80%) | Season 8/10 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-149) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.86, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 46 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .326 | OPS .928
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 19.9%, L7 21.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 21.7%/46 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eric Lauer Over 2.5 (+104) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.33 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 5.32, ERA 4.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 14 PA | K% 35.7% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .154 | OPS .599
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 17.4%, L7 23.2%, season 20.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ronel Blanco Over 2.5 (+123) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.49 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 6.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .781
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.6%, L7 21.7%, season 23.8%, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/5 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-125) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.99 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 4.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .150 | OPS .577
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 20.3%, L7 23.1%, season 24.6%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Vasquez Over 2.5 (+101) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.80 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.87, ERA 3.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Vásquez: 34 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 14.7% | AVG .414 | OPS 1.121
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.1%, L7 24.8%, season 25.4%, BVP 11.8%/34 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/26 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — AJ Smith-Shawver Over 2.5 (-104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.90 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 5.12)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 21 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .222 | OPS .611
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 21.3%, L7 20.4%, season 21.5%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Under 2.5 (+104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.44 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 4.59)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 108)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 22.3%, L7 14.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Bradish Under 2.5 (+115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 4.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 22.1%, L7 22.1%, season 22.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-118) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 2.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 97 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .193 | OPS .552
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.7%, L7 19.4%, season 22.1%, BVP 24.7%/97 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/27 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	71.6	72.1	75.5	4	Sweeper (48% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 32.2%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants	64.8	62.4	70.0	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays	59.8	69.6	53.0	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Morris	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	58.4	45.1	71.5	6	Changeup (26% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels	57.1	50.4	66.5	5	Slider (27% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	57.1	53.9	64.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	56.2	59.5	55.0	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	55.0	54.4	58.5	6	Slider (34% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox	54.3	51.9	59.0	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets	53.7	53.6	53.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brady Basso	Athletics vs Texas Rangers	52.9	44.6	60.0	7	Curveball (35% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles	49.5	36.9	60.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (17% whiff, 54% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies	48.7	49.8	47.5	4	Curveball (37% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals	47.7	54.7	40.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates	47.6	42.7	54.5	5	Changeup (28% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	47.0	43.6	49.0	5	Sweeper (26% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Spencer Arrighetti	Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians	45.4	57.7	34.5	7	Curveball (40% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays	44.1	47.2	39.5	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies	42.7	41.4	45.5	5	Changeup (27% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	42.7	49.9	30.5	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	42.1	45.4	37.0	5	Slider (40% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins	40.1	35.8	43.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	40.0	47.0	32.0	6	Curveball (37% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees	39.5	45.6	30.0	4	Slider (36% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals	38.7	33.8	40.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 42% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
AJ Smith-Shawver	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	37.8	33.9	37.5	5	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	34.3	37.1	31.0	7	Changeup (27% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	31.9	43.3	15.5	4	Curveball (40% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.384, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Randy Vásquez	San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds	31.8	35.0	27.0	7	Cutter (21% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	20.2%	6.1	6.0	6.0	102	deep	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brady Basso	Athletics vs Texas Rangers	L	17.9%	1.4	1.9	4.0	24	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.4 IP/start
AJ Smith-Shawver	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	R	19.5%	4.4	4.6	5.2	74	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies	R	20.3%	4.9	5.5	5.4	82	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	16.7%	6.1	5.7	5.8	102	deep	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	R	23.9%	4.8	5.4	5.3	80	short	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	L	17.8%	4.2	4.9	4.8	70	short	full	15.50	84.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	33.6%	4.2	5.8	5.5	70	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.2%	4.6	5.0	5.0	77	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	19.4%	5.9	6.1	6.0	99	normal	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.1%	4.3	4.8	5.2	72	short	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins	R	17.8%	5.0	5.2	5.3	84	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees	R	22.2%	5.4	4.8	4.9	91	normal	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	16.3%	4.6	5.1	5.0	77	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals	R	21.1%	4.1	4.6	4.5	69	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	L	22.0%	4.7	5.1	5.0	79	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Andrew Morris	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	R	18.3%	1.2	1.5	4.2	20	short	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	23.1%	6.1	5.7	6.0	102	deep	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels	R	26.1%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	31.8%	6.7	6.0	6.2	112	deep	full	75.50	24.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants	R	27.9%	4.8	5.4	5.3	80	short	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Randy Vásquez	San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds	R	13.7%	5.6	5.1	5.2	94	normal	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	20.2%	5.6	6.2	6.0	94	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox	R	25.1%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	17.4%	5.1	5.5	5.4	86	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets	R	20.3%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	L	25.5%	5.1	5.3	5.3	86	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Spencer Arrighetti	Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians	R	20.9%	3.4	5.1	4.8	57	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.8%	4.9	4.8	4.8	82	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	18.5	20.8	2.3	12.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	112	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min
Jesús Luzardo	Jesús Luzardo Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	18.5	20.8	2.3	12.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	112	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min
MacKenzie Gore	MacKenzie Gore Under	Athletics @ Texas Rangers	17.5	15.8	-1.7	9.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Over	New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	19.2	1.7	9.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	18.7	1.2	7.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Manaea	Sean Manaea Under	New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays	18.5	17.6	-0.8	4.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	17.0	-0.5	2.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	70	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates	18.5	18.7	0.2	1.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Over	Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	17.7	0.2	0.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.1%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes