| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 605 | 55% | -23.83u | 33 | 61% | +2.02u | 285 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 526 | 58% | +8.24u | 25 | 56% | -1.30u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 2 | 50% | -0.36u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 35 | 77% | -0.23u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 655 | 56% | -28.75u | 52 | 58% | -1.62u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 444 | 61% | -4.83u | 28 | 79% | +7.29u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 131 | 47% | -15.70u | 3 | 33% | -0.79u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 2 | 0% | -2.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 2 | 0% | -2.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 7 | 86% | +3.50u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 71.6 | 72.1 | 75.5 | 4 | Sweeper (48% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 32.2%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | 64.8 | 62.4 | 70.0 | 7 | Changeup (38% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays | 59.8 | 69.6 | 53.0 | 5 | Sweeper (43% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Morris | Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | 58.4 | 45.1 | 71.5 | 6 | Changeup (26% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels | 57.1 | 50.4 | 66.5 | 5 | Slider (27% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | 57.1 | 53.9 | 64.0 | 6 | Changeup (34% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Athletics | 56.2 | 59.5 | 55.0 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | 55.0 | 54.4 | 58.5 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | 54.3 | 51.9 | 59.0 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets | 53.7 | 53.6 | 53.5 | 5 | Curveball (34% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Basso | Athletics vs Texas Rangers | 52.9 | 44.6 | 60.0 | 7 | Curveball (35% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles | 49.5 | 36.9 | 60.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (17% whiff, 54% usage) | Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies | 48.7 | 49.8 | 47.5 | 4 | Curveball (37% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals | 47.7 | 54.7 | 40.5 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.6 | 42.7 | 54.5 | 5 | Changeup (28% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | 47.0 | 43.6 | 49.0 | 5 | Sweeper (26% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians | 45.4 | 57.7 | 34.5 | 7 | Curveball (40% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays | 44.1 | 47.2 | 39.5 | 5 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies | 42.7 | 41.4 | 45.5 | 5 | Changeup (27% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ronel Blanco | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | 42.7 | 49.9 | 30.5 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | 42.1 | 45.4 | 37.0 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins | 40.1 | 35.8 | 43.5 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | 40.0 | 47.0 | 32.0 | 6 | Curveball (37% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees | 39.5 | 45.6 | 30.0 | 4 | Slider (36% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | 38.7 | 33.8 | 40.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 42% usage) | Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 37.8 | 33.9 | 37.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (34% whiff, 35% usage) | Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 34.3 | 37.1 | 31.0 | 7 | Changeup (27% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | 31.9 | 43.3 | 15.5 | 4 | Curveball (40% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.384, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Randy Vásquez | San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds | 31.8 | 35.0 | 27.0 | 7 | Cutter (21% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 20.2% | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brady Basso | Athletics vs Texas Rangers | L | 17.9% | 1.4 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 24 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | R | 19.5% | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 74 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies | R | 20.3% | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 82 | short | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 16.7% | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 102 | deep | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros | R | 23.9% | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 80 | short | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | L | 17.8% | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 70 | short | full | 15.50 | 84.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 33.6% | 4.2 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 70 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 18.2% | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 77 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | R | 19.4% | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ronel Blanco | Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | R | 21.1% | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 72 | short | full | 30.50 | 69.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Randy Dobnak | Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins | R | 17.8% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 84 | short | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees | R | 22.2% | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 91 | normal | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 16.3% | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 77 | short | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals | R | 21.1% | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 69 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | L | 22.0% | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Andrew Morris | Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers | R | 18.3% | 1.2 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 20 | short | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 23.1% | 6.1 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 26.1% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 31.8% | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 112 | deep | full | 75.50 | 24.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants | R | 27.9% | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 80 | short | full | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Randy Vásquez | San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 13.7% | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 94 | normal | full | 27.00 | 73.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 20.2% | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | R | 25.1% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 17.4% | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Freddy Peralta | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets | R | 20.3% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Athletics | L | 25.5% | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 20.9% | 3.4 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 57 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Jake Irvin | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | R | 21.8% | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 82 | short | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 18.5 | 20.8 | 2.3 | 12.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 112 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min |
| Jesús Luzardo | Jesús Luzardo Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 18.5 | 20.8 | 2.3 | 12.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 112 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min |
| MacKenzie Gore | MacKenzie Gore Under | Athletics @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.7 | 9.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.3 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Gerrit Cole | Gerrit Cole Over | New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 9.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 18.7 | 1.2 | 7.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sean Manaea | Sean Manaea Under | New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | 18.5 | 17.6 | -0.8 | 4.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Gavin Williams | Gavin Williams Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 | 2.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 70 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Logan Webb | Logan Webb Over | San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 18.5 | 18.7 | 0.2 | 1.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Over | Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 0.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Troy Melton | Troy Melton Over | Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.1% | B | MONITOR | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 8.7 | -142 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price | 57.3% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Jesús Luzardo Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 8.7 | -145 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -145 | exact | 57.3% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Logan Webb Over | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 6.2 | -160 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -156 | best price | 38.9% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | AJ Smith-Shawver Under | BRA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | 3.4 | -146 | DK Under 4.5 -146 | exact | 24.1% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Tyler Phillips Under | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -134 | DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal | Pitcher Hits All | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -135 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Logan Webb Under | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -103 | BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Jesús Luzardo Under | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -165 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Randy Dobnak Over | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -143 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price | 39.5% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Jake Irvin Over | BRA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -170 | DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact | 39.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Matthew Boyd Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -124 | DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact | 33.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Nick Lodolo Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -131 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 29.8% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Phillips Over | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -128 | DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact | 25.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 24.2% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Freddy Peralta Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -152 | DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact | 66.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Gavin Williams Over | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -129 | DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | MacKenzie Gore Over | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -125 | DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Gerrit Cole Over | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -156 | DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Gabriel Hughes Under | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | -156 | DK Under 3.5 -156 | exact | 22.9% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Michael McGreevy Under | CAR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | -158 | DK Under 3.5 -158 | exact | 22.9% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Irvin Under | BRA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -133 | DK Under 3.5 -133 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Troy Melton Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -123 | DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––✓ | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 43.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.6 | +100 | BetOnline Over 3.5 +110 | best price | 31.8% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Robert Gasser Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.3 | -151 | DK Over 3.5 -151 | exact | 24.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Randy Vasquez Under | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -136 | Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -135 | best price | 18.3% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Lodolo Under | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | -138 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price | 14.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eric Lauer Under | CAR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | +126 | DK Under 3.5 +126 | exact | 14.1% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | +103 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 | best price | 13.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryan Woo Over | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | +109 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 13.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Bradish Over | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -121 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price | 12.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grayson Rodriguez Under | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -141 | DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact | 11.9% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Under | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.8 | -133 | DK Under 6.5 -133 | exact | 11.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Spencer Arrighetti Over | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -126 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -118 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ronel Blanco Over | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -109 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +105 | best price | 8.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Manaea Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -109 | DK Over 4.5 -109 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Burke Under | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -123 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -118 | best price | 6.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gavin Williams Under | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.1 | -145 | DK Under 6.5 -145 | exact | 6.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael McGreevy Over | CAR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | +101 | BetMGM Over 3.5 +115 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gerrit Cole Over | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | -114 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -104 | best price | 4.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gabriel Hughes Over | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -170 | theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +113 | DK Over 4.5 +113 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Irvin Under | BRA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -137 | DK Under 4.5 -137 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matt Boyd Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +100 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact | 2.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Troy Melton Over | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +112 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price | 2.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.6 | +102 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +102 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Randy Dobnak Over | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -119 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -102 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 18.5 | 20.8 | +104 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price | 12.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.33 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesús Luzardo Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 18.5 | 20.8 | +105 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +105 | exact | 12.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | MacKenzie Gore Under | ATH@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 15.8 | -114 | DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact | 9.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gerrit Cole Over | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -188 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price | 9.5% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.7 | -173 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -160 | best price | 7.0% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sean Manaea Under | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 17.6 | -185 | Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -180 | best price | 4.6% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gavin Williams Under | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.0 | +109 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 2.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Webb Over | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 18.7 | +114 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +134 | best price | 1.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Over | MAR@SOX | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -114 | DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact | 0.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Hits All | Jake Irvin Under | BRA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -109 | DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -102 | DK Under 5.5 -102 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sean Manaea Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -125 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Troy Melton Under | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -125 | DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gabriel Hughes Under | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -109 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +100 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Robert Gasser Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -112 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Boyd Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | +106 | DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Lodolo Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -108 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matt Boyd Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -145 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -145 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Randy Dobnak Under | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -118 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael McGreevy Over | CAR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -114 | DK Over 5.5 -114 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Bradish Under | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +120 | DK Under 5.5 +120 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | AJ Smith-Shawver Over | BRA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -105 | DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact | 37.0% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Sean Manaea Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +121 | DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact | 18.3% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Gavin Williams Over | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -101 | DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact | 9.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Troy Melton Over | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -113 | DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact | 7.1% | ✓✗✗––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Spencer Arrighetti Over | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +104 | theScore Bet Over 2.5 +105 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Randy Vasquez Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +116 | DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact | 4.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Logan Webb Over | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -106 | DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact | 3.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -164 | DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact | 2.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Paul Skenes Under | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -123 | DK Under 1.5 -123 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Manaea Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -107 | DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Paul Skenes Over | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -114 | DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Phillips Under | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -102 | DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Lodolo Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -114 | DK Over 2.5 -114 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Spencer Arrighetti Over | JAY@GUA | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -103 | DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Boyd Over | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -119 | DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -174 | DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Webb Under | GIA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -136 | DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Randy Dobnak Under | MAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -118 | DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Burke Under | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Eric Lauer Over | CAR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +104 | DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ronel Blanco Over | SOX@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +123 | DK Over 2.5 +123 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Grayson Rodriguez Over | YAN@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -125 | DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Randy Vasquez Over | PAD@RED | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +101 | DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | AJ Smith-Shawver Over | BRA@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -104 | DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@CUB | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +104 | DK Under 2.5 +104 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Bradish Under | ORI@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +115 | DK Under 2.5 +115 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | PHI@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -118 | DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Over | MET@RAY | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -128 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | best price | 21.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Troy Melton Over | TIG@TWI | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -125 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -125 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✓––✓ | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context