MLB Bets 2026-08-30

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	158W–103L–0P	61%	-21.88 u	Last 14 days • 261 settled
Grade A	10W–9L–0P	53%	-1.68 u
Grade B	148W–94L–0P	61%	-20.20 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3741W–2352L–8P	61%	-268.89 u	All-time • 6101 settled
Grade A	270W–214L–0P	56%	-12.39 u
Grade B	3469W–2129L–8P	62%	-250.05 u

100 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	K Prop	Mason Allen Adams	3.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	K Prop	Zach Thornton	3.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Andrew Alvarez	2.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Braxton Ashcraft	2.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Chase Burns	2.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Dustin May	1.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Janson Junk	1.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Ranger Suarez	1.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Shota Imanaga	2.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Tyler Mahle	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Hits Allow	Braxton Ashcraft	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Hits Allow	Chris Bassitt	6.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Hits Allow	Mason Adams	5.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Hits Allow	Robbie Ray	5.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Hits Allow	Yusei Kikuchi	5.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Outs	Braxton Ashcraft	17.5	-191	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Alvarez	1.5	-181	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Walks	Braxton Ashcraft	0.5	-232	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Walks	Janson Junk	0.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Walks	Jeffrey Springs	2.5	-192	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Walks	Max Scherzer	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Mahle	1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-30	Pitcher Walks	Zebby Matthews	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-29	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	7.5	-143	-	WIN	+0.699	Cristopher Sánchez: 8.0 (line 7.5)
2026-08-29	K Prop	Blake Snell	6.5	-153	-	WIN	+0.654	Blake Snell: 10.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	600	55%	-24.20u	34	56%	-0.92u	284	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	516	58%	+6.60u	19	53%	-1.95u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	4	75%	+0.92u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	66	79%	+0.80u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	640	56%	-30.60u	48	48%	-9.40u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	430	61%	-7.94u	14	79%	+4.19u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	130	48%	-14.70u	3	33%	-0.79u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	2	0%	-2.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	3	0%	-3.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	9	78%	+3.31u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 600, 14d N 34	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 13 total candidate(s); season N 516, 14d N 19	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 4	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 130, 14d N 3	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 3	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 9	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 832 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 231 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 801 pitcher(s), 3561 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 595 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 28 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 28 roster team(s), 364 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1414 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 364 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 28 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, Athletics, Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 28 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Athletics
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 355 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 14/14 game(s) with pitching props \| K 28 line(s)/14 game(s); Outs 29 line(s)/14 game(s); Hits Allowed 28 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 21 line(s)/11 game(s); Earned Runs 28 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 117, betmgm 12, bovada_direct 3, espnbet 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 380 market side(s) checked \| 380 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 641 \| batter bats 381 \| batter hand splits 138 \| pitcher HR splits 54 \| batter pitch-type 595 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 14 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow blocked: 208 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_ARTIFACT_MISSING

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals	12:16 PM	-112	+104	-1.5 (+141)	1.5 (-171)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves	1:36 PM	+209	-226	1.5 (-105)	-1.5 (-115)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees	1:36 PM	-116	+108	-1.5 (+138)	1.5 (-167)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays	1:38 PM	-135	+125	-1.5 (+124)	1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians	1:41 PM	+168	-181	1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers	1:41 PM	-174	+162	-1.5 (-101)	1.5 (-119)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays	1:41 PM	+152	-163	1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+105	-113	1.5 (-195)	-1.5 (+160)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+151	-162	1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	-113	+105	-1.5 (+140)	1.5 (-170)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ New York Mets	3:11 PM	+111	-119	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics	4:06 PM	-146	+136	-1.5 (+103)	1.5 (-124)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels	4:07 PM	-187	+173	-1.5 (-113)	1.5 (-106)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	7:21 PM	+125	-134	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 23 Grade B | 75 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (5 play(s))

K Prop - Chase Burns Over

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.17

Pitcher Earned Runs - Janson Junk Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

K Prop - Shota Imanaga Over

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 6

K Prop - Logan Gilbert Over

Projection: 5.9Displayed: Over 5.5 +119Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.83Recommended: BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.83

Pitcher Earned Runs - Jeffrey Springs Over

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (23 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Mason Allen Adams Over 3.5 (-125) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 45.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, L7 21.8%, season 22.7% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 3.5 (-139) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-128	-101	-
BetRivers	3.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-139	+109	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-108	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 44.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, L7 24.3%, season 21.6%, active roster 18.8%/7 hitters (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (7 hitters)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -139, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 (-191) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -191

Selected market: Over 61.5% / Under 38.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-210	+150	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
DK	17.5	-191	+143	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-180	+134	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.799 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 18.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.19 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.5% / under 38.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 51 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .217 | OPS .709
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 33.3%/51 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.6%, L7 4.7%, season 8.4%, BVP 7.8%/51 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-191) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Braxton Ashcraft Under 5.5 (-120) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 29.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.68 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 0.92, BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 51 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .217 | OPS .709
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 33.3%/51 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Chris Bassitt Under 6.5 (-159) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 16.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.49, BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .630
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.4%, L7 24.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/15 (73%) | Season 11/15 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Mason Adams Under 5.5 (-154) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 8.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Mason Adams: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 1/1 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Robbie Ray Under 5.5 (-162) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 11.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 87 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 4.6% | AVG .222 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.3%, L7 13.3%, season 18.5%, BVP 21.8%/87 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 (-141) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended
DK	5.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 66 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .271 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.6%, L7 18.6%, season 22.2%, BVP 27.3%/66 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.25 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/8 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Braxton Ashcraft Over 0.5 (-232) diff 160.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 65.5% / Under 34.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -232 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3032660269743643 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.9 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 65.5% / under 34.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 51 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .217 | OPS .709
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 33.3%/51 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 8.6%, L7 4.7%, season 8.4%, BVP 7.8%/51 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-232) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Janson Junk Over 0.5 (-171) diff 150.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2515992562222118 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 4.4 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 45 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .244 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.4%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.6%/45 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 11.2%, L7 10.7%, season 9.0%, BVP 2.2%/45 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Andrew Alvarez Over 1.5 (-181) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -181 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.187962711265532 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.2% / under 39.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Alvarez: 25 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .120 | OPS .360
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.0%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.0%/25 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.4%, L7 11.4%, season 9.2%, BVP 0.0%/25 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Max Scherzer Over 1.5 (-147) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0359273256829784 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 4.3 IP (BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 59 PA | K% 32.2% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .658
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 19.9%, L7 27.3%, season 23.2%, BVP 32.2%/59 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 10.3%, L7 10.0%, season 9.0%, BVP 8.5%/59 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jeffrey Springs Under 2.5 (-192) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -192 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.638877842359954 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 34.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.4% / under 61.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.7%, L7 24.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.2%, L7 7.3%, season 9.9%, BVP 0.0%/20 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-192) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tyler Mahle Over 1.5 (-125) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9477688143699798 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 57 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .346 | OPS .848
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.0%, L7 21.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 21.1%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 7.9%, L7 11.8%, season 8.5%, BVP 7.0%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Zebby Matthews Over 1.5 (-168) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9124043360595127 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.4 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 48 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .616
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.7%, L7 24.2%, season 23.9%, BVP 18.8%/48 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 10.9%, L7 13.7%, season 9.3%, BVP 6.2%/48 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Over 1.5 (-159) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+115	-
DK	1.5	-159	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.94 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 3.86)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 57 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .346 | OPS .848
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.0%, L7 21.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 21.1%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Over 1.5 (-174) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-174	+131	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 3.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 45 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .244 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.4%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 15.6%/45 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Dustin May Over 1.5 (-146) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .229 | OPS .684
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.4%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Over 1.5 (-185) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.55, ERA 3.87)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 118 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .232 | OPS .629
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.8%, L7 23.1%, season 24.8%, BVP 22.9%/118 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Under 2.5 (-142) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.95 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 3.19, ERA 3.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 51 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .217 | OPS .709
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 33.3%/51 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Under 2.5 (-123) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.16 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.45, ERA 3.36)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .393
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.2%, L7 16.6%, season 21.6% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/25 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (-158) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+119	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.80, ERA 3.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Alvarez: 25 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .120 | OPS .360
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.0%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.0%/25 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Under 2.5 (-154) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+115	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.86, ERA 3.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.4% / under 56.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 72 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .585
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.7%, L7 22.7%, season 25.3%, BVP 34.7%/72 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-154) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (75 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 25 play(s) (B 9 | C 16)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chase Burns Over 5.5 (-146) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 6.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	5.5	-157	+117	-
DK	5.5	-146	+114	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	6.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	6.5	+128	-164	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 29.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.62K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK LOWER delta -0.80
Chase Burns: K/9 11.2, proj 7.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.5% | put-away% 21.4% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .393
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.2%, L7 16.6%, season 21.6%, active roster 20.3%/7 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.56
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 32.1% vs season 28.9%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 (+119) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	+106	-141	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+119	-151	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 22.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.2% / under 56.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 8.5, proj 6.8K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.287 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 24.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 51 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .217 | OPS .709
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.7%, season 20.7%, BVP 33.3%/51 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 6.19
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (-166) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 4.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-147	+114	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-166	+129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.88K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zebby Matthews: K/9 8.3, proj 5.4K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 36.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 48 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .616
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 24.7%, L7 24.2%, season 23.9%, active roster 26.3%/6 hitters, BVP 18.8%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.7%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 24.6% vs season 20.1%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Parker Messick Over 5.5 (-156) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-167	+128	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-170	+130	-
DK	5.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-170	+132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.84K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Parker Messick: K/9 9.6, proj 6.3K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 26.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 11 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.7%, L7 20.9%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
K% trend: support +3.8 ppts (recent 29.3% vs season 25.5%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Dustin May Over 4.5 (-144) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-137	+106	-
BetRivers	4.5	-141	+107	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-144	+113	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.7% / under 44.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dustin May: K/9 8.3, proj 5.1K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Sweeper (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .229 | OPS .684
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 24.4%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.72
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Robbie Ray Under 4.5 (-154) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 4.1 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
FanDuel	3.5	-170	+132	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
DK	4.5	+121	-154	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.5, proj 4.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Curveball: 25.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 87 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 4.6% | AVG .222 | OPS .759
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 87 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 16.3%, L7 13.3%, season 18.5%, active roster 15.5%/6 hitters, BVP 21.8%/87 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 16.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 13.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.69
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Will Warren Under 4.5 (+100) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-119	-109	-
BetRivers	4.5	-122	-108	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-127	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.8% / under 47.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Will Warren: K/9 8.9, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 62 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .756
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 22.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 14.5%/62 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/26 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Tyler Mahle Under 5.5 (+108) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -185 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -185 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Under 5.5 +108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	-
BetOnline	5.5	-128	-101	-
BetRivers	5.5	-143	+108	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-137	+108	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	-
BetMGM	6.5	+135	-185	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.6% / under 45.4%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Mahle: K/9 9.1, proj 5.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Split-Finger (26% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 57 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .346 | OPS .848
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.0%, L7 21.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 21.1%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.09
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 27.1% vs season 22.5%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Seth Lugo Over 3.5 (-139) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-139	+107	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-139	+109	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-138	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.9, proj 3.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.5% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.344 | top pitch: Cutter (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Cutter: 21.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 89 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .256 | OPS .729
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 89 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 16.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.5%, active roster 18.5%/7 hitters, BVP 24.7%/89 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.5% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.30
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 (-106) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	6.5	+104	-135	-
BetRivers	6.5	-113	-118	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+105	-135	-
DK	6.5	-106	-120	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 29.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.93K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.5% / under 51.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tyler Glasnow: K/9 10.6, proj 8.4K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 25.0% | xwOBA 0.246 | top pitch: Curveball (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .208 | OPS .571
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 22.3%, L7 25.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 7.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/8 over 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Max Scherzer Under 4.5 (-128) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+101	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.78K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.0% / under 53.0%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Max Scherzer: K/9 7.0, proj 3.7K over 4.7 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.7% | put-away% 12.1% | xwOBA 0.336 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 59 PA | K% 32.2% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .658
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 59 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 19.9%, L7 27.3%, season 23.2%, active roster 21.0%/6 hitters, BVP 32.2%/59 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Seattle Mariners 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 27.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/12 (92%) | Season 11/12 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 (-122) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-116	-111	-
BetRivers	5.5	-125	-107	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-122	-104	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-115	-111	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 6.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.95K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Matthew Liberatore: K/9 9.8, proj 6.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 54 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS .890
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 25.8%, L7 30.5%, season 24.5%, BVP 25.9%/54 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.12 vs season
K% trend: support +6.5 ppts (recent 29.9% vs season 23.4%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 (-119) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-119	-109	-
BetRivers	4.5	-127	-105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kumar Rocker: K/9 8.6, proj 5.3K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.483
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.9%, L7 16.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.68
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-137) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+106	-137	-
BetRivers	5.5	+102	-136	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-137	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.84K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Ranger Suarez: K/9 7.8, proj 4.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 118 PA | K% 22.9% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .232 | OPS .629
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 118 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.8%, L7 23.1%, season 24.8%, BVP 22.9%/118 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.09
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
K% trend: headwind -9.8 ppts (recent 14.0% vs season 23.8%, proj adj -4.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Under 4.5 (-140) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	4.5	+125	-167	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 5.8, proj 3.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .700
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.7%, L7 24.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.83
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
K% trend: headwind -9.3 ppts (recent 8.2% vs season 17.5%, proj adj -4.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 (+123) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 12:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+124	-161	-
BetRivers	4.5	+118	-157	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+123	-157	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 8.2, proj 5.1K over 5.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Alvarez: 25 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .120 | OPS .360
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 18.0%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.0%/25 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 (-137) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-103	-125	Recommended
BetRivers	5.5	+110	-148	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	+107	-137	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Yusei Kikuchi: K/9 8.9, proj 4.9K over 4.6 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Split-Finger (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Split-Finger: 27.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 66 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .271 | OPS .772
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 66 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.6%, L7 18.6%, season 22.2%, active roster 20.5%/8 hitters, BVP 27.3%/66 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.62 | Season Avg 4.62
Prop trend: K L10: 6/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chris Bassitt Under 4.5 (-123) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -123

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	4.5	-103	-130	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-103	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chris Bassitt: K/9 6.2, proj 4.2K over 5.2 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.6% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .630
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.4%, L7 24.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/15 (73%) | Season 11/15 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.40
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 (+122) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -154 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 6 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -154 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 6.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	5.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
FanDuel	5.5	-154	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	6.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	6.5	+118	-154	-
DK	6.5	+122	-156	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.60
Shota Imanaga: K/9 10.0, proj 7.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.8% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Split-Finger (42% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 72 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .585
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.7%, L7 22.7%, season 25.3%, BVP 34.7%/72 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 7/26 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.54
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 6.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +5.2 ppts (recent 29.5% vs season 24.3%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zack Wheeler Under 7.5 (-140) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 7.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 7.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	7.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	7.5	+118	-157	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+120	-160	-
DK	7.5	+109	-140	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+120	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 7.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.53K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zack Wheeler: K/9 10.7, proj 7.0K over 5.2 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.8% | put-away% 22.2% | xwOBA 0.271 | top pitch: Split-Finger (45% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 6.6% | AVG .228 | OPS .752
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 24.4%, L7 24.2%, season 25.1%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 6.73
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.4 ppts (recent 24.3% vs season 29.7%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 (+119) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
FanDuel	4.5	-162	+126	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+119	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.0% / under 57.0%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.80
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.2, proj 5.9K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.1 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.7% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 130 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .252 | OPS .761
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 130 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 18.4%, L7 13.7%, season 19.3%, BVP 21.5%/130 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.23
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Framber Valdez Over 4.5 (+115) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	4.5	+107	-141	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+115	-147	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Framber Valdez: K/9 6.5, proj 4.7K over 5.8 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.9% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Curveball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 139 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .153 | OPS .594
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 139 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.0%, L7 19.9%, season 20.5%, BVP 27.3%/139 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.27
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Mason Adams Under 3.5 (-105) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -105

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-119	-109	-
BetRivers	3.5	-129	-104	-
DK	3.5	-122	-105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-102	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mason Adams: K/9 8.6, proj 3.4K over 4.7 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 16.6% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
BVP (active roster) vs Mason Adams: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.1%/7 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 0/1 (0%) | L10 0/1 (0%) | L20 0/1 (0%) | Season 0/1 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 0/1 under 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ethan Pecko Under 3.5 (-110) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -110

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	3.5	-118	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	3.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	-116	-110	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Ethan Pecko: K/9 7.5, proj 3.4K over 4.2 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 10.5% | xwOBA 0.428 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 19.9%, L7 23.1%, season 22.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 (+107) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+109	-141	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 9.3, proj 5.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .122 | OPS .391
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.72
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-192) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.5% / Under 38.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	Recommended
DK	17.5	-192	+143	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-215	+154	-
BetMGM	18.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 19.009 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.5% / under 38.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.75 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 11 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.7%, L7 20.9%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 6.1%, L7 9.4%, season 8.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.20 | Season Avg 17.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tyler Mahle Under 17.5 (+104) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-138	+104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	-102	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.522000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.93 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 57 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .346 | OPS .848
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.0%, L7 21.8%, season 22.7%, BVP 21.1%/57 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 7.9%, L7 11.8%, season 8.5%, BVP 7.0%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zebby Matthews Under 17.5 (-107) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
DK	17.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-104	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.858 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.07 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 48 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .616
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.7%, L7 24.2%, season 23.9%, BVP 18.8%/48 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 10.9%, L7 13.7%, season 9.3%, BVP 6.2%/48 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 17.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Over 17.5 (-103) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
DK	17.5	-103	-128	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.075 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .122 | OPS .391
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.9%, L7 11.3%, season 9.3%, BVP 6.5%/46 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 16.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Under 17.5 (+125) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +125

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
DK	17.5	-167	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.962 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.06 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 70)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 70
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 6.6% | AVG .228 | OPS .752
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 24.4%, L7 24.2%, season 25.1%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 11.9%, L7 7.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 6.6%/61 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.70 | Season Avg 16.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -2.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tyler Glasnow Under 17.5 (-112) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-118	-112	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.018 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 80%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.40 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .208 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 22.3%, L7 25.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 10.6%, L7 6.1%, season 9.2%, BVP 14.3%/28 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.75 | Season Avg 16.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/8 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 17.5 (+108) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-143	+108	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.147000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.24 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 139 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .153 | OPS .594
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.0%, L7 19.9%, season 20.5%, BVP 27.3%/139 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 9.3%, L7 11.2%, season 9.7%, BVP 9.3%/139 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Under 18.5 (-191) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 18.1 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books | 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 17.5 +148; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	17.5	-200	+148	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	17.5	-200	+140	-
BetMGM	18.5	+155	-210	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+145	-190	Recommended
DK	18.5	+143	-191	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.432000000000002 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 0.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.57 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.5% / under 61.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 18.1 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 130 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .252 | OPS .761
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 18.4%, L7 13.7%, season 19.3%, BVP 21.5%/130 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 6.5%, L7 7.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 7.7%/130 PA (adj 0.91x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.70 | Season Avg 17.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Mason Allen Adams Under 5.5 (-150) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, L7 21.8%, season 22.7% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Gilbert Under 5.5 (-147) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.07, BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.1 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 130 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .252 | OPS .761
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 18.4%, L7 13.7%, season 19.3%, BVP 21.5%/130 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kumar Rocker Over 5.5 (+123) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.19 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.58, BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.483
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.9%, L7 16.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/25 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Liberatore Under 5.5 (-151) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 54 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS .890
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 25.8%, L7 30.5%, season 24.5%, BVP 25.9%/54 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Over 5.5 (+110) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.09 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.47, BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 139 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .153 | OPS .594
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.0%, L7 19.9%, season 20.5%, BVP 27.3%/139 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Seth Lugo Over 5.5 (-115) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.11 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.42, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 89 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .256 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.7%/89 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 (-123) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -123

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 48 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .616
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.7%, L7 24.2%, season 23.9%, BVP 18.8%/48 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jeffrey Springs Under 5.5 (-159) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+119	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.25 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.65, BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.7%, L7 24.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 14 play(s) (C 14)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 (-190) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.175963235154122 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.20 over 5.5 IP (BB% 4.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.7% / under 61.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .122 | OPS .391
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.9%, L7 11.3%, season 9.3%, BVP 6.5%/46 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Mason Adams Over 1.5 (-142) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.822587746914209 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Mason Adams: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.0%, L7 7.8%, season 7.8% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/1 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chris Bassitt Over 1.5 (-103) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7680698699071702 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .630
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.4%, L7 24.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 15.9%, L7 7.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 3.9%/51 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-162) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.102635961575091 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.483
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.9%, L7 16.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.3%, L7 8.3%, season 10.6% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Matthew Liberatore Over 1.5 (-122) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.707429290444826 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 54 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS .890
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 25.8%, L7 30.5%, season 24.5%, BVP 25.9%/54 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 8.8%, L7 8.4%, season 9.1%, BVP 7.4%/54 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chase Burns Under 2.5 (-176) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -176 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1575779396417616 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .393
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 21.2%, L7 16.6%, season 21.6% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.2%, L7 10.0%, season 10.7% (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Dustin May Over 1.5 (+123) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.696268482787211 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .229 | OPS .684
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.4%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 7.3%, L7 11.6%, season 8.7%, BVP 12.2%/41 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shota Imanaga Under 1.5 (-127) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3095040524331847 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.1 IP (BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 72 PA | K% 34.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .585
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.7%, L7 22.7%, season 25.3%, BVP 34.7%/72 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 11.6%, L7 9.1%, season 9.5%, BVP 8.3%/72 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-122) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6530642262695594 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.0 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.4% / under 48.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 6.6% | AVG .228 | OPS .752
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 24.4%, L7 24.2%, season 25.1%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 11.9%, L7 7.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 6.6%/61 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Yusei Kikuchi Over 1.5 (-113) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6359464285149905 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 66 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .271 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.6%, L7 18.6%, season 22.2%, BVP 27.3%/66 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.2%, L7 7.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 10.6%/66 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.88 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/8 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Seth Lugo Over 1.5 (-129) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6294242418655072 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 89 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .256 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.7%/89 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.6%, L7 8.0%, season 9.6%, BVP 6.7%/89 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Gilbert Under 1.5 (-138) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4515686905189567 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.1 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 130 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .252 | OPS .761
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 18.4%, L7 13.7%, season 19.3%, BVP 21.5%/130 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 6.5%, L7 7.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 7.7%/130 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robbie Ray Over 2.5 (+138) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.532243220989338 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.97x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 87 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 4.6% | AVG .222 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.3%, L7 13.3%, season 18.5%, BVP 21.8%/87 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 9.2%, L7 8.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.6%/87 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-101) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.517646774070988 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 11 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.7%, L7 20.9%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 6.1%, L7 9.4%, season 8.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 20 play(s) (C 20)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jordan Hicks Over 0.5 (+130) diff 160.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.99 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 5.02)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 1.0 IP/GS; recent 1.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 3.5 outs/1.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jordan Hicks: 30 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .613
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.8%, L7 16.8%, season 21.1%, BVP 26.7%/30 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 9/43 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-134) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.38 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.06, ERA 4.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 6.6% | AVG .228 | OPS .752
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 24.4%, L7 24.2%, season 25.1%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Gilbert Under 2.5 (-164) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	-
DK	2.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.34 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.57, ERA 3.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.1 outs/6.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 130 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .252 | OPS .761
Opponent K profile: composite 17.8%, split 18.4%, L7 13.7%, season 19.3%, BVP 21.5%/130 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-121) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.98 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 5.28)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 89 PA | K% 24.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .256 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.1%, L7 19.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.7%/89 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-154) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-154	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.71 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.34, ERA 2.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.8 outs/5.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 11 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .091 | OPS .182
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.7%, L7 20.9%, season 20.9% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Glasnow Over 1.5 (-125) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.87 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.40, ERA 3.18)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Glasnow: 28 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .208 | OPS .571
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 22.3%, L7 25.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/28 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.88 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-136) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-136	+102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.82 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.21, ERA 2.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .122 | OPS .391
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Warren Under 2.5 (-145) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.16 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.84, ERA 4.41)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 62 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .756
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 22.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 14.5%/62 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ethan Pecko Over 2.5 (-120) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.96 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.51, ERA 6.05)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 19.9%, L7 23.1%, season 22.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 over 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Over 2.5 (-143) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 3.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-143	+107	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-155	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.74 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 5.07, ERA 6.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.9% / under 45.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 20 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.7%, L7 24.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 25.0%/20 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mason Adams Under 2.5 (-107) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.21 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.20)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Mason Adams: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.7%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/1 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Over 2.5 (-115) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 4.18)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 139 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.3% | AVG .153 | OPS .594
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.0%, L7 19.9%, season 20.5%, BVP 27.3%/139 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Over 2.5 (-102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 1:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.39 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.80, ERA 3.29)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 87 PA | K% 21.8% | BB% 4.6% | AVG .222 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.3%, L7 13.3%, season 18.5%, BVP 21.8%/87 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/26 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-115	-116	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.34 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.07, ERA 4.55)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.9% / under 50.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 48 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .616
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 24.7%, L7 24.2%, season 23.9%, BVP 18.8%/48 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Liberatore Over 2.5 (+102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	-
DK	2.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.82 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 5.71)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 54 PA | K% 25.9% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS .890
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 25.8%, L7 30.5%, season 24.5%, BVP 25.9%/54 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-130) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, L7 24.3%, season 21.6% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Bassitt Over 2.5 (-124) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-124	-107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.69, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Bassitt: 51 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .229 | OPS .630
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.4%, L7 24.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 27.5%/51 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Yusei Kikuchi Under 2.5 (-144) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 4:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+109	-144	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.04 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 5.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Yusei Kikuchi: 66 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .271 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.6%, L7 18.6%, season 22.2%, BVP 27.3%/66 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/8 (38%) | L20 3/8 (38%) | Season 3/8 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.12 | Season Avg 3.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Scherzer Under 2.5 (-149) Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 1:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-155	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.46 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 5.08, ERA 5.53)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 15.3 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Scherzer: 59 PA | K% 32.2% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .222 | OPS .658
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 19.9%, L7 27.3%, season 23.2%, BVP 32.2%/59 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-109) Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.65 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 5.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.483
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.9%, L7 16.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers	72.8	70.2	84.5	4	Curveball (49% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.246, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels	67.9	67.5	72.0	6	Split-Finger (45% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	66.4	68.1	69.0	3	Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.5%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Jordan Hicks	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	64.2	57.3	72.5	4	Sweeper (48% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	61.9	53.7	74.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres	59.4	53.0	69.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	59.1	57.4	64.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays	58.7	63.0	58.5	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	56.4	58.9	56.0	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	53.5	48.9	60.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers	48.5	48.8	49.5	6	Sweeper (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies	48.5	49.9	48.0	5	Split-Finger (26% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers	48.3	54.4	43.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	47.5	54.1	43.0	5	Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays	46.6	51.0	43.0	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Mason Adams	Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves	46.4	36.3	50.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	45.6	47.2	42.5	5	Changeup (28% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	45.4	50.4	37.5	8	Curveball (42% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	44.2	44.4	43.5	6	Slider (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Yusei Kikuchi	Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies	43.2	54.8	30.0	5	Split-Finger (29% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	42.7	40.3	44.5	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	42.5	43.7	37.5	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Houston Astros	42.0	40.0	45.0	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	40.5	28.5	49.5	6	Changeup (25% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 15.3%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics	39.8	40.1	37.5	7	Curveball (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	38.8	33.1	39.5	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 12.1%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians	37.6	37.6	35.5	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Ethan Pecko	Houston Astros vs New York Mets	25.2	42.2	0.0	6	Curveball (30% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 10.5%, xwOBA 0.428, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	L	14.2%	3.9	4.9	4.7	65	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies	R	24.1%	5.7	5.3	5.4	96	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics	R	15.5%	5.1	4.9	4.9	86	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	L	20.4%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	L	26.1%	4.7	5.6	5.4	79	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Jordan Hicks	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	R	27.9%	1.1	1.0	4.4	18	short	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	R	30.0%	5.3	5.6	5.5	89	normal	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	L	26.8%	5.7	6.0	6.0	96	normal	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Mason Adams	Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves	R	22.8%	-	4.0	5.6	94	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 4.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	16.2%	6.1	5.6	5.7	102	deep	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Ethan Pecko	Houston Astros vs New York Mets	R	18.5%	3.6	4.0	5.2	60	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians	R	17.8%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Yusei Kikuchi	Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	22.3%	4.2	4.5	4.6	70	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers	R	30.6%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	84.50	15.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	R	13.6%	3.8	5.1	4.9	64	short	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers	R	22.0%	5.2	5.0	5.0	87	normal	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.7%	5.4	5.8	5.7	91	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Houston Astros	L	18.1%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.4%	4.9	5.0	5.0	82	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels	R	27.8%	4.2	5.7	5.4	70	short	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	24.6%	6.6	6.0	6.1	111	deep	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	19.9%	5.2	5.5	5.4	87	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	25.6%	5.8	6.0	6.0	97	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	25.7%	5.2	5.0	5.0	87	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres	R	26.7%	5.8	5.6	6.0	97	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	20.9%	4.7	5.0	4.9	79	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	R	17.8%	5.0	4.2	4.3	84	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	L	21.7%	5.1	4.8	4.9	86	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	20.8	3.3	18.9%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tyler Mahle	Tyler Mahle Under	Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Under	Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Under	Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.0	-0.5	3.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.4	70	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tyler Glasnow	Tyler Glasnow Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.0	-0.5	2.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.1	-0.3	2.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Under	Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays	18.5	18.4	-0.1	0.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes