MLB Full Audit Sunday, August 30 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	600	55%	-24.20u	34	56%	-0.92u	284	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	516	58%	+6.60u	19	53%	-1.95u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	4	75%	+0.92u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	66	79%	+0.80u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	640	56%	-30.60u	48	48%	-9.40u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	430	61%	-7.94u	14	79%	+4.19u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	130	48%	-14.70u	3	33%	-0.79u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	2	0%	-2.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	3	0%	-3.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	9	78%	+3.31u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers	72.8	70.2	84.5	4	Curveball (49% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 25.0%, xwOBA 0.246, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels	67.9	67.5	72.0	6	Split-Finger (45% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	66.4	68.1	69.0	3	Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.5%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Jordan Hicks	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	64.2	57.3	72.5	4	Sweeper (48% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	61.9	53.7	74.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres	59.4	53.0	69.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	59.1	57.4	64.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays	58.7	63.0	58.5	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	56.4	58.9	56.0	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	53.5	48.9	60.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers	48.5	48.8	49.5	6	Sweeper (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies	48.5	49.9	48.0	5	Split-Finger (26% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers	48.3	54.4	43.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	47.5	54.1	43.0	5	Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays	46.6	51.0	43.0	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Mason Adams	Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves	46.4	36.3	50.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	45.6	47.2	42.5	5	Changeup (28% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	45.4	50.4	37.5	8	Curveball (42% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	44.2	44.4	43.5	6	Slider (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Yusei Kikuchi	Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies	43.2	54.8	30.0	5	Split-Finger (29% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	42.7	40.3	44.5	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	42.5	43.7	37.5	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Houston Astros	42.0	40.0	45.0	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	40.5	28.5	49.5	6	Changeup (25% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 15.3%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics	39.8	40.1	37.5	7	Curveball (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	38.8	33.1	39.5	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 12.1%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians	37.6	37.6	35.5	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Ethan Pecko	Houston Astros vs New York Mets	25.2	42.2	0.0	6	Curveball (30% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 10.5%, xwOBA 0.428, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	L	14.2%	3.9	4.9	4.7	65	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies	R	24.1%	5.7	5.3	5.4	96	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Chris Bassitt	Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics	R	15.5%	5.1	4.9	4.9	86	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	L	20.4%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	L	26.1%	4.7	5.6	5.4	79	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Jordan Hicks	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	R	27.9%	1.1	1.0	4.4	18	short	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	R	30.0%	5.3	5.6	5.5	89	normal	full	69.00	31.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	L	26.8%	5.7	6.0	6.0	96	normal	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Mason Adams	Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves	R	22.8%	-	4.0	5.6	94	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 4.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	16.2%	6.1	5.6	5.7	102	deep	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Ethan Pecko	Houston Astros vs New York Mets	R	18.5%	3.6	4.0	5.2	60	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians	R	17.8%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Yusei Kikuchi	Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	22.3%	4.2	4.5	4.6	70	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Tyler Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers	R	30.6%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	84.50	15.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	R	13.6%	3.8	5.1	4.9	64	short	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers	R	22.0%	5.2	5.0	5.0	87	normal	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.7%	5.4	5.8	5.7	91	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Houston Astros	L	18.1%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.4%	4.9	5.0	5.0	82	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels	R	27.8%	4.2	5.7	5.4	70	short	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	24.6%	6.6	6.0	6.1	111	deep	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	19.9%	5.2	5.5	5.4	87	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	25.6%	5.8	6.0	6.0	97	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	25.7%	5.2	5.0	5.0	87	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres	R	26.7%	5.8	5.6	6.0	97	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	20.9%	4.7	5.0	4.9	79	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	R	17.8%	5.0	4.2	4.3	84	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	L	21.7%	5.1	4.8	4.9	86	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	20.8	3.3	18.9%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tyler Mahle	Tyler Mahle Under	Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Under	Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Under	Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.0	-0.5	3.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.4	70	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tyler Glasnow	Tyler Glasnow Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.0	-0.5	2.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.1	-0.3	2.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Under	Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays	18.5	18.4	-0.1	0.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

98 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
► Add Signals
B	🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Mason Allen Adams Over	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	3.5	5.1	-125	Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -125 \| exact	45.3%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -139, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Zach Thornton Over	AST@MET	3:11 PM	3.5	5.0	-139	FanDuel Over 3.5 -118 \| best price	44.4%	✓✓✓–––	Add Signal
B	🔬 Research Only Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Outs	Braxton Ashcraft Over	PIR@CAR	2:16 PM	17.5	20.8	-191	FanDuel Over 17.5 -180 \| best price	18.9%	✓✓✓––!	Add Signal
B	✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Braxton Ashcraft Under	PIR@CAR	2:16 PM	5.5	3.9	-120	DK Under 5.5 -120 \| exact	29.1%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Chris Bassitt Under	ORI@ATH	4:06 PM	6.5	5.4	-159	DK Under 6.5 -159 \| exact	16.9%	✓✓✓––!	Add Signal
B	✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Hits All	Mason Adams Under	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	5.5	4.6	-154	BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 \| best price	16.4%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Hits All	Robbie Ray Under	PAD@RAY	1:41 PM	5.5	4.7	-162	DK Under 5.5 -162 \| exact	14.5%	✓!✓–––	Add Signal
B	✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Yusei Kikuchi Under	PHI@ANG	4:07 PM	5.5	4.7	-141	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 \| best price	14.5%	✓!✓––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Braxton Ashcraft Over	PIR@CAR	2:16 PM	0.5	1.3	-232	DK Over 0.5 -232 \| exact	160.7%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Janson Junk Over	MAR@NAT	12:16 PM	0.5	1.3	-171	DK Over 0.5 -171 \| exact	150.3%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Alvarez Over	MAR@NAT	12:16 PM	1.5	2.2	-181	DK Over 1.5 -181 \| exact	45.9%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal	Pitcher Walks	Max Scherzer Over	MAR@JAY	1:38 PM	1.5	2.0	-147	DK Over 1.5 -147 \| exact	35.7%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Jeffrey Springs Under	ORI@ATH	4:06 PM	2.5	1.6	-192	DK Under 2.5 -192 \| exact	34.4%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal	Pitcher Walks	Tyler Mahle Over	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	1.5	1.9	-125	DK Over 1.5 -125 \| exact	29.8%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Zebby Matthews Over	SOX@TWI	2:11 PM	1.5	1.9	-168	DK Over 1.5 -168 \| exact	27.5%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Tyler Mahle Over	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	1.5	2.3	-159	DK Over 1.5 -159 \| exact	53.3%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Janson Junk Over	MAR@NAT	12:16 PM	1.5	2.2	-174	DK Over 1.5 -174 \| exact	46.7%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal	Pitcher Earned R	Dustin May Over	RAN@BRE	2:11 PM	1.5	2.2	-146	DK Over 1.5 -146 \| exact	46.7%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Ranger Suarez Over	SOX@YAN	1:36 PM	1.5	1.9	-185	BetMGM Over 1.5 -185 \| exact	26.7%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Braxton Ashcraft Under	PIR@CAR	2:16 PM	2.5	1.9	-142	DK Under 2.5 -142 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Chase Burns Under	RED@CUB	7:21 PM	2.5	1.9	-123	DK Under 2.5 -123 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Andrew Alvarez Under	MAR@NAT	12:16 PM	2.5	2.0	-158	BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 \| best price	20.0%	✓✓!–––	Add Signal
B	👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Shota Imanaga Under	RED@CUB	7:21 PM	2.5	2.0	-154	BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 \| best price	20.0%	✓✓!––!	Add Signal
► Lean Signals (Derisked)
B (Weak)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) \| books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not…	K Prop	Chase Burns Over	RED@CUB	7:21 PM	5.5	7.1	-146	DK Over 5.5 -146 \| exact	29.4%	✓✓✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
B (Weak)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.2% (7 books) \| books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft Over	PIR@CAR	2:16 PM	5.5	6.8	+119	BetOnline Over 5.5 +120 \| best price	22.9%	✓✓✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (7 books) \| books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree	K Prop	Tyler Glasnow Over	DOD@TIG	1:41 PM	6.5	8.4	-106	BetMGM Over 6.5 +120 \| best price	29.7%	✓✓✗!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Max Scherzer Under	MAR@JAY	1:38 PM	4.5	3.7	-128	DK Under 4.5 -128 \| exact	17.3%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Matthew Liberatore Over	PIR@CAR	2:16 PM	5.5	6.5	-122	FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 \| best price	17.3%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Kumar Rocker Over	RAN@BRE	2:11 PM	4.5	5.3	-119	FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 \| best price	17.1%	✓✗✓!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Ranger Suarez Under	SOX@YAN	1:36 PM	5.5	4.7	-137	BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 \| best price	15.2%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jeffrey Springs Under	ORI@ATH	4:06 PM	4.5	3.9	-140	DK Under 4.5 -140 \| exact	12.9%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Andrew Alvarez Over	MAR@NAT	12:16 PM	4.5	5.0	+123	BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 \| alt rescue	12.3%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Yusei Kikuchi Under	PHI@ANG	4:07 PM	5.5	4.9	-137	BetOnline Under 5.5 -125 \| best price	11.4%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Chris Bassitt Under	ORI@ATH	4:06 PM	4.5	4.2	-123	DK Under 4.5 -123 \| exact	7.7%	✓✗!!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Shota Imanaga Over	RED@CUB	7:21 PM	6.5	7.0	+122	FanDuel Over 5.5 -154 \| alt rescue	7.4%	✓✗✗!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Zack Wheeler Under	PHI@ANG	4:07 PM	7.5	7.0	-140	BetMGM Under 7.5 -135 \| best price	7.1%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Logan Gilbert Over	MAR@JAY	1:38 PM	5.5	5.9	+119	BetOnline Over 4.5 -161 \| alt rescue	6.7%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Framber Valdez Over	DOD@TIG	1:41 PM	4.5	4.7	+115	BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 \| alt rescue	5.0%	✓✗✗!––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Mason Adams Under	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	3.5	3.4	-105	FanDuel Under 3.5 -102 \| best price	4.2%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Ethan Pecko Under	AST@MET	3:11 PM	3.5	3.4	-110	DK Under 3.5 -110 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗!✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Drew Rasmussen Over	PAD@RAY	1:41 PM	5.5	5.6	+107	FanDuel Over 5.5 +112 \| best price	1.3%	✓✗✗✓––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Parker Messick Over	ROY@GUA	1:41 PM	17.5	19.0	-192	Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -190 \| best price	8.6%	✓✗✓–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Tyler Mahle Under	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	17.5	16.5	+104	BetMGM Under 17.5 +105 \| best price	5.6%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Zebby Matthews Under	SOX@TWI	2:11 PM	17.5	16.9	-107	DK Under 17.5 -107 \| exact	3.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Drew Rasmussen Over	PAD@RAY	1:41 PM	17.5	18.1	-103	FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 \| best price	3.3%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Zack Wheeler Under	PHI@ANG	4:07 PM	17.5	17.0	+125	DK Under 17.5 +125 \| exact	3.1%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Tyler Glasnow Under	DOD@TIG	1:41 PM	17.5	17.0	-112	BetMGM Under 17.5 +100 \| best price	2.8%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Framber Valdez Under	DOD@TIG	1:41 PM	17.5	17.1	+108	BetMGM Under 17.5 +120 \| best price	2.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Logan Gilbert Under	MAR@JAY	1:38 PM	18.5	18.4	-191	Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -190 \| best price	0.4%	✓✗✓–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Hits All	Mason Allen Adams Under	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	5.5	4.7	-150	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 \| exact	14.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Logan Gilbert Under	MAR@JAY	1:38 PM	5.5	4.8	-147	BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 \| best price	12.7%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Kumar Rocker Over	RAN@BRE	2:11 PM	5.5	6.2	+123	BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 \| alt rescue	12.7%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Matthew Liberatore Under	PIR@CAR	2:16 PM	5.5	4.8	-151	DK Under 5.5 -151 \| exact	12.7%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Framber Valdez Over	DOD@TIG	1:41 PM	5.5	6.1	+110	BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 \| exact	10.9%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Seth Lugo Over	ROY@GUA	1:41 PM	5.5	5.9	-115	DK Over 5.5 -115 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗✓–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Zebby Matthews Under	SOX@TWI	2:11 PM	5.5	5.3	-123	DK Under 5.5 -123 \| exact	3.6%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Jeffrey Springs Under	ORI@ATH	4:06 PM	5.5	5.4	-159	BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 \| best price	1.8%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen Under	PAD@RAY	1:41 PM	1.5	1.2	-190	DK Under 1.5 -190 \| exact	21.6%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Walks	Mason Adams Over	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	1.5	1.8	-142	DK Over 1.5 -142 \| exact	21.5%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)	Pitcher Walks	Chris Bassitt Over	ORI@ATH	4:06 PM	1.5	1.8	-103	DK Over 1.5 -103 \| exact	17.9%	✓!✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Walks	Kumar Rocker Under	RAN@BRE	2:11 PM	2.5	2.1	-162	DK Under 2.5 -162 \| exact	15.9%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Matthew Liberatore Over	PIR@CAR	2:16 PM	1.5	1.7	-122	DK Over 1.5 -122 \| exact	13.8%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Walks	Chase Burns Under	RED@CUB	7:21 PM	2.5	2.2	-176	DK Under 2.5 -176 \| exact	13.7%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)	Pitcher Walks	Dustin May Over	RAN@BRE	2:11 PM	1.5	1.7	+123	DK Over 1.5 +123 \| exact	13.1%	✓!✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Walks	Shota Imanaga Under	RED@CUB	7:21 PM	1.5	1.3	-127	DK Under 1.5 -127 \| exact	12.7%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@ANG	4:07 PM	1.5	1.7	-122	DK Over 1.5 -122 \| exact	10.2%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Yusei Kikuchi Over	PHI@ANG	4:07 PM	1.5	1.6	-113	DK Over 1.5 -113 \| exact	9.1%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Seth Lugo Over	ROY@GUA	1:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-129	DK Over 1.5 -129 \| exact	8.6%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Logan Gilbert Under	MAR@JAY	1:38 PM	1.5	1.5	-138	DK Under 1.5 -138 \| exact	3.2%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Robbie Ray Over	PAD@RAY	1:41 PM	2.5	2.5	+138	DK Over 2.5 +138 \| exact	1.3%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Parker Messick Over	ROY@GUA	1:41 PM	1.5	1.5	-101	DK Over 1.5 -101 \| exact	1.2%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)	Pitcher Earned R	Jordan Hicks Over	SOX@TWI	2:11 PM	0.5	1.3	+130	BetMGM Over 0.5 +130 \| exact	160.0%	✓✓✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@ANG	4:07 PM	1.5	1.8	-134	DK Over 1.5 -134 \| exact	20.0%	✓!!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Earned R	Logan Gilbert Under	MAR@JAY	1:38 PM	2.5	2.1	-164	DK Under 2.5 -164 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Earned R	Seth Lugo Over	ROY@GUA	1:41 PM	2.5	2.9	-121	DK Over 2.5 -121 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Earned R	Parker Messick Over	ROY@GUA	1:41 PM	1.5	1.7	-154	DK Over 1.5 -154 \| exact	13.3%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Earned R	Tyler Glasnow Over	DOD@TIG	1:41 PM	1.5	1.7	-125	BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 \| exact	13.3%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Earned R	Drew Rasmussen Over	PAD@RAY	1:41 PM	1.5	1.7	-136	BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 \| best price	13.3%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Earned R	Will Warren Under	SOX@YAN	1:36 PM	2.5	2.2	-145	BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked	Pitcher Earned R	Ethan Pecko Over	AST@MET	3:11 PM	2.5	2.8	-120	BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Jeffrey Springs Over	ORI@ATH	4:06 PM	2.5	2.8	-143	DK Over 2.5 -143 \| exact	12.0%	✓!✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Mason Adams Under	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	2.5	2.3	-107	DK Under 2.5 -107 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Framber Valdez Over	DOD@TIG	1:41 PM	2.5	2.7	-115	BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Robbie Ray Over	PAD@RAY	1:41 PM	2.5	2.6	-102	DK Over 2.5 -102 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Zebby Matthews Over	SOX@TWI	2:11 PM	2.5	2.6	-115	BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗✗–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Matthew Liberatore Over	PIR@CAR	2:16 PM	2.5	2.6	+102	DK Over 2.5 +102 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗✗––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Zach Thornton Under	AST@MET	3:11 PM	2.5	2.4	-130	BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Chris Bassitt Over	ORI@ATH	4:06 PM	2.5	2.6	-124	BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Yusei Kikuchi Under	PHI@ANG	4:07 PM	2.5	2.4	-144	BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗!––!	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Max Scherzer Under	MAR@JAY	1:38 PM	2.5	2.5	-149	DK Under 2.5 -149 \| exact	-	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)	↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Kumar Rocker Under	RAN@BRE	2:11 PM	2.5	2.5	-109	BetMGM Under 2.5 +110 \| best price	-	✓✗!–––	Lean Signal - Derisked
► Watch Signals
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Zebby Matthews Over	SOX@TWI	2:11 PM	4.5	5.4	-166	FanDuel Over 4.5 -140 \| best price	19.5%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Parker Messick Over	ROY@GUA	1:41 PM	5.5	6.3	-156	BetMGM Over 5.5 -155 \| best price	15.3%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Dustin May Over	RAN@BRE	2:11 PM	4.5	5.1	-144	FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 \| best price	14.1%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Robbie Ray Under	PAD@RAY	1:41 PM	4.5	4.2	-154	DK Under 4.5 -154 \| exact	7.8%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Will Warren Under	SOX@YAN	1:36 PM	4.5	4.2	+100	DK Under 4.5 +100 \| exact	7.0%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Tyler Mahle Under	ROC@BRA	1:36 PM	5.5	5.2	+108	BetMGM Under 6.5 -185 \| alt rescue	4.5%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal
B (Review)	◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Seth Lugo Over	ROY@GUA	1:41 PM	3.5	3.6	-139	BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 \| best price	2.4%	✓✗✓✓––	Watch Signal