MLB Bets 2026-08-29

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	177W–108L–0P	62%	-20.86 u	Last 14 days • 285 settled
Grade A	9W–9L–0P	50%	-2.29 u
Grade B	168W–98L–0P	63%	-17.57 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3732W–2345L–8P	61%	-267.68 u	All-time • 6085 settled
Grade A	268W–214L–0P	56%	-13.75 u
Grade B	3462W–2122L–8P	62%	-247.49 u

93 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	K Prop	Blake Snell	6.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	7.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Carlos Rodon	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Jose Soriano	1.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Lake Bachar	0.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Drohan	1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Hits Allow	Martin Perez	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Johnson	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Outs	Merrill Kelly	17.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Daniel Lynch IV	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Foster Griffin	1.5	-193	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Nick Martinez	0.5	-222	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Nolan McLean	1.5	-169	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	598	55%	-25.55u	34	53%	-2.52u	282	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	514	57%	+5.17u	22	45%	-4.90u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	4	75%	+0.92u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	103	71%	-8.91u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	633	56%	-28.50u	48	52%	-5.87u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	426	61%	-7.05u	12	83%	+4.81u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	129	48%	-13.70u	4	75%	+1.49u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	2	0%	-2.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	3	0%	-3.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	9	78%	+3.31u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 26 total candidate(s); season N 598, 14d N 34	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 514, 14d N 22	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 4	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 31 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 31/31 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 129, 14d N 4	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 3	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 9	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	NO DATA	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Review will run after enough recently settled bets exist.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 828 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 231 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 797 pitcher(s), 3544 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 595 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 31 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 31 SP matchup(s), 1417 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, Athletics, New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Angels, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 353 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 16/17 game(s) with pitching props \| K 28 line(s)/16 game(s); Outs 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 28 line(s)/16 game(s); Walks 23 line(s)/13 game(s); Earned Runs 29 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 131, betmgm 5, fanduel 1 \| missing: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 394 market side(s) checked \| 394 opening snapshot(s) created \| 16 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 17 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 641 \| batter bats 400 \| batter hand splits 138 \| pitcher HR splits 53 \| batter pitch-type 595 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 17 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow blocked: 212 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_ARTIFACT_MISSING

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees	1:06 PM	+107	-115	1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers	1:11 PM	-176	+163	-1.5 (-106)	1.5 (-114)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins	2:11 PM	+106	-114	-1.5 (+166)	1.5 (-203)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:16 PM	+111	-119	1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+169	-182	1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	+110	-118	1.5 (-211)	-1.5 (+172)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	+104	-112	-1.5 (+170)	1.5 (-208)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals	4:06 PM	+101	-108	-1.5 (+161)	1.5 (-196)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves	4:11 PM	+206	-223	1.5 (-109)	-1.5 (-110)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians	4:11 PM	+138	-148	1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	+125	-134	1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	+119	-127	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees	7:16 PM	+116	-124	1.5 (-207)	-1.5 (+169)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:16 PM	+145	-156	1.5 (-165)	-1.5 (+136)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants	10:06 PM	-120	+102	-1.5 (+142)	1.5 (-172)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: FanDuel \| RL: FanDuel \| Total: FanDuel	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics	10:06 PM	-150	+124	-1.5 (+109)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels	10:08 PM	-243	+196	-1.5 (-136)	1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 15 Grade B | 83 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez Over	PHI@ANG	10:08 PM	7.5	9.3	-143	BetOnline Over 7.5 -137 \| best price	24.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade…	K Prop	Blake Snell Over	DOD@TIG	1:11 PM	6.5	7.8	-153	BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 \| best price	19.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (5 play(s))

K Prop - Bailey Ober Under

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 3.5 / avg 3.7

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Martin Perez Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Earned Runs - Carlos Rodon Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Cristopher Sanchez Over

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Earned Runs - Andrew Abbott Under

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 (-143) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 7.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 7.33 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 7.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	7.5	-137	+106	Recommended
BetRivers	7.5	-152	+114	-
DK	7.5	-143	+112	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-142	+112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.3K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 24.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.84K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.7, proj 9.3K over 6.1 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 25.1% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 29 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .185 | OPS .464
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.2%, L7 26.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 24.1%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 7.19
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Blake Snell Over 6.5 (-153) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-135	+100	Recommended
BetOnline	6.5	-145	+111	-
BetRivers	6.5	-139	+105	-
DK	6.5	-153	+120	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-146	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 19.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Blake Snell: K/9 9.9, proj 7.8K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/4 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 36.1% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.236 | top pitch: Slider (56% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Slider: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 36 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .619
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 25.7%, L7 23.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/4 (25%) | L10 1/4 (25%) | L20 1/4 (25%) | Season 1/4 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 1/4 over 6.5; cold exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (15 play(s))

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 (-125) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-105	-130	-
DK	17.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 14.129999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 19.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.4 IP (xFIP 5.05 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 82)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 82
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 45 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .227 | OPS .676
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.6%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 7.9%, L7 7.7%, season 7.1%, BVP 2.2%/45 PA (adj 0.88x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.90 | Season Avg 16.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Martin Perez Under 5.5 (-150) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 32.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 41 PA | K% 34.2% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .275 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 21.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 34.2%/41 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/25 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Johnson Under 5.5 (-131) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-101	-131	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.333
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.1%, L7 18.6%, season 22.3% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Walks — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nick Martinez Over 0.5 (-222) diff 91.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 64.6% / Under 35.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -222 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.9587986173011861 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.16 over 5.6 IP (BB% 3.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 64.6% / under 35.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 88 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .215 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 19.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 12.5%/88 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.9%, L7 11.6%, season 9.3%, BVP 5.7%/88 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-222); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nolan McLean Over 1.5 (-169) diff 57.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.362326172353231 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.6 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 11 PA | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .455
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.1%, L7 24.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 10.3%, L7 9.7%, season 8.8% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/26 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Ryan Feltner Under 2.5 (-207) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -207 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8057542693911073 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 27.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.9% / under 63.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 73 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .386 | OPS 1.054
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.9%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.5%/73 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 7.9%, L7 7.8%, season 7.7%, BVP 2.7%/73 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-207); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Daniel Lynch IV Under 1.5 (-138) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.1088107860904124 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 3.2 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.2 IP (HIGH; season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Daniel Lynch IV: 63 PA | K% 12.7% | BB% 15.9% | AVG .260 | OPS .797
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 17.4%, L7 18.5%, season 21.5%, BVP 12.7%/63 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 9.4%, L7 8.7%, season 9.6%, BVP 15.9%/63 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/50 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Foster Griffin Under 1.5 (-193) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.228026919061402 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.4% / under 61.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .708
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.7%, L7 20.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.7%, split 6.1%, L7 9.9%, season 8.4%, BVP 0.0%/16 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-193); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Lake Bachar Over 0.5 (-145) diff 160.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.90 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 3.68)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 2.3 IP/GS; recent 2.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.4 IP; outs market 6.5 outs/2.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Lake Bachar: 26 PA | K% 11.5% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.140
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 20.1%, L7 26.3%, season 20.7%, BVP 11.5%/26 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 17/45 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-122) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 48.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.35 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 5.05, ERA 6.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 45 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .227 | OPS .676
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.6%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-142) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.86 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 4.27)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.3%, L7 20.6%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Carlos Rodon Over 1.5 (-171) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-171	+128	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.90 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 3.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 95 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 8.4% | AVG .176 | OPS .573
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.8%, L7 16.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 26.3%/95 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Over 1.5 (-160) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-160	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.72 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.75, ERA 3.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 118 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .267 | OPS .701
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 19.8%, L7 25.4%, season 23.2%, BVP 26.3%/118 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Cavalli Over 1.5 (-161) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-161	+121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.01 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.23, ERA 2.78)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 62 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .255 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 14.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.1%/62 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Over 1.5 (-159) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+115	-
DK	1.5	-159	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.26 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.57, ERA 3.06)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 11 PA | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .455
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.1%, L7 24.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (83 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 6 | C 18)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+105) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
DK	5.5	+105	-134	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Jose Soriano: K/9 8.4, proj 6.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 30.4% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Curveball (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 118 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .267 | OPS .701
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 118 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 19.8%, L7 25.4%, season 23.2%, active roster 20.9%/6 hitters, BVP 26.3%/118 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Seattle Mariners 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Andrew Abbott Over 3.5 (-147) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-159	+122	-
BetRivers	3.5	-148	+110	-
DK	3.5	-147	+115	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Abbott: K/9 6.9, proj 4.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 140 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .180 | OPS .543
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 140 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.6%, L7 19.3%, season 21.7%, active roster 20.4%/7 hitters, BVP 17.1%/140 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.22
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Bailey Ober Under 4.5 (-156) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.7 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 3.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-167	+127	-
FanDuel	3.5	-170	+132	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
DK	4.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Bailey Ober: K/9 5.6, proj 3.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Sweeper (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .204 | OPS .617
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 24.7%, L7 23.3%, season 23.8%, active roster 26.3%/6 hitters, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Opposes Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.70
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Nolan McLean Over 5.5 (-136) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-139	+107	-
BetRivers	5.5	-148	+110	-
DK	5.5	-136	+107	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-146	+114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.4% / under 45.6%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Nolan McLean: K/9 9.4, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Curveball: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 11 PA | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .455
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.1%, L7 24.3%, season 21.7%, active roster 18.9%/7 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.46
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.9 ppts (recent 21.3% vs season 27.2%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 (-142) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-137	+106	-
BetRivers	3.5	-134	+100	Recommended
DK	3.5	-142	+112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Ryan Feltner: K/9 6.1, proj 3.8K over 5.1 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.357 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 25.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 73 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .386 | OPS 1.054
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 73 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.9%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.2%/7 hitters, BVP 20.5%/73 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Nick Martinez Under 3.5 (-110) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -110

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-114	-114	-
DK	3.5	-116	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Nick Martinez: K/9 5.6, proj 3.4K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.1% | put-away% 14.4% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 88 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .215 | OPS .597
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 88 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 19.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 12.5%/88 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.48
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 3.5 (-158) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 3.67 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	3.5	-175	+128	-
DK	3.5	-158	+124	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 55.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.94K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.8% / under 42.2%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Kyle Leahy: K/9 8.7, proj 5.4K over 4.7 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 38 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .364 | OPS .936
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 22.6%, L7 30.8%, season 24.4%, BVP 31.6%/38 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.60
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 27.3% vs season 21.7%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kade Anderson Over 4.5 (-113) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-120	-108	-
DK	4.5	-113	-113	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.99K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Kade Anderson: K/9 8.5, proj 5.5K over 5.3 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 31.6% | put-away% 25.1% | xwOBA 0.261 | top pitch: Curveball (67% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 25.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 16.9%, L7 14.4%, season 19.3% (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Max Fried Over 4.5 (-120) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-130	-105	-
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.99K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Max Fried: K/9 9.1, proj 5.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.248 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 96 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 5.2% | AVG .156 | OPS .409
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 96 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.8%, L7 16.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 24.0%/96 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 11/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
K% trend: support +7.7 ppts (recent 31.5% vs season 23.8%, proj adj +3.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 (-135) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 4.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	+106	-135	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.96K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.0, proj 3.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.398 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Slider: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 45 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .227 | OPS .676
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.6%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 4.5 (-112) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-118	-110	-
BetRivers	4.5	-110	-121	Recommended
DK	4.5	-112	-113	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.9% / under 50.1%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Jake Bennett: K/9 7.3, proj 5.4K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Changeup: 30.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .393
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.8%, L7 27.1%, season 24.8%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Under 3.5 (-139) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	3.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	3.5	+107	-139	-
DK	3.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 18.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Walker Buehler: K/9 7.1, proj 2.8K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 24.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 48 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .693
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 15.6%, split 15.4%, L7 14.6%, season 18.5%, active roster 15.6%/6 hitters, BVP 12.5%/48 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 14.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/26 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.15
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (-116) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	-102	-127	-
DK	5.5	-110	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Foster Griffin: K/9 8.1, proj 5.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 27.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .708
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.7%, L7 20.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Over 3.5 (-112) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-109	-119	-
BetRivers	3.5	-109	-122	-
DK	3.5	-112	-114	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Ryan Johnson: K/9 6.6, proj 3.8K over 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 14.0% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Split-Finger (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Split-Finger: 27.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.333
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.1%, L7 18.6%, season 22.3%, active roster 20.5%/8 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.12
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Cavalli Under 6.5 (-128) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 6.5 -128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	6.5	+102	-132	-
BetRivers	6.5	+100	-134	-
DK	6.5	+100	-128	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 6.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.1% / under 52.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cade Cavalli: K/9 10.5, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.7% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 62 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .255 | OPS .619
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 14.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.1%/62 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.04
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
K% trend: support +5.1 ppts (recent 32.2% vs season 27.1%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 5.5 (-137) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+101	-
DK	5.5	-137	+108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.6% / under 45.4%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Jack Perkins: K/9 10.3, proj 5.8K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 15 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .833
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 22.8%, L7 23.8%, season 24.4%, BVP 33.3%/15 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/31 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 3.35
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cal Quantrill Under 3.5 (+122) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	-
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-143	+110	-
BetRivers	3.5	-155	+115	-
DK	3.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cal Quantrill: K/9 6.8, proj 3.3K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.0% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 60 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .302 | OPS .817
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 23.6%, L7 15.9%, season 21.3%, BVP 20.0%/60 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 21.4% vs season 17.3%, proj adj +2.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 (+118) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +235; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+235	-340	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	4.5	-103	-130	-
DK	4.5	+118	-150	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 6.5, proj 4.7K over 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 20.3 outs/6.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 86 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .220 | OPS .585
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 86 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 21.3%, L7 18.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 12.8%/86 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 (-140) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetRivers	5.5	+120	-162	-
DK	5.5	+110	-140	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Carlos Rodon: K/9 9.3, proj 5.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 95 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 8.4% | AVG .176 | OPS .573
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 95 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.8%, L7 16.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 26.3%/95 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 11/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Under 6.5 (-146) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -146

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	6.5	+110	-143	-
BetRivers	6.5	+102	-136	-
DK	6.5	+115	-146	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 2.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Kevin Gausman: K/9 8.8, proj 6.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.2% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 50 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .326 | OPS .903
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.1%, L7 22.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 28.0%/50 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.52
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Martin Perez Over 4.5 (+121) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+122	-159	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	+117	-157	-
DK	4.5	+121	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Martin Perez: K/9 6.3, proj 4.6K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 41 PA | K% 34.2% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .275 | OPS .743
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 21.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 34.2%/41 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/25 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.40
Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-156) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+124	-161	-
BetRivers	5.5	+118	-157	-
DK	5.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+130	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Shane Baz: K/9 8.3, proj 5.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .663
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Keider Montero Over 3.5 (-110) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	3.5	-110	-121	-
DK	3.5	-110	-116	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Keider Montero: K/9 5.2, proj 3.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.5% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.179
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.2%, L7 22.8%, season 20.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.1 ppts (recent 9.5% vs season 16.6%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Drohan Under 5.5 (-116) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	5.5	-110	-121	-
DK	5.5	-110	-116	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Shane Drohan: K/9 8.8, proj 5.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Slider: 35.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.3%, L7 20.6%, season 22.9%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 20.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (+107) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+105	-140	-
DK	18.5	+107	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	18.5	+104	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.058999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 13.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.55 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 29 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .185 | OPS .464
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.2%, L7 26.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 24.1%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 12.0%, L7 7.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 3.5%/29 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Blake Snell Under 17.5 (+122) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	17.5	-165	+125	-
DK	17.5	-162	+122	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-198	+142	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 15.421000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 40%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/4 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.90 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 36 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 25.7%, L7 23.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.2%, split 11.0%, L7 6.9%, season 9.2%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 1.17x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/4 (25%) | L10 1/4 (25%) | L20 1/4 (25%) | Season 1/4 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.75 | Season Avg 15.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/4 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Foster Griffin Under 17.5 (+136) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 17.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +136

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 17.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-200	+140	-
BetOnline	17.5	-185	+145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-182	+136	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-192	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.412 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.79 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .708
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.7%, L7 20.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.7%, split 6.1%, L7 9.9%, season 8.4%, BVP 0.0%/16 PA (adj 0.88x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cade Cavalli Over 17.5 (-171) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 17.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 17.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 17.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	17.5	-165	+125	Recommended
DK	17.5	-171	+128	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.179 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 62 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .255 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 14.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.1%/62 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.8%, L7 12.3%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.5%/62 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 15.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nick Martinez Under 17.5 (-104) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	-
DK	17.5	-128	-104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+102	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.075 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.49 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 88 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .215 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 19.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 12.5%/88 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.9%, L7 11.6%, season 9.3%, BVP 5.7%/88 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (+102) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-135	+102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.1 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.11 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .663
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 15.8%, L7 7.2%, season 8.6%, BVP 5.3%/38 PA (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+111) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-155	+115	-
DK	17.5	-148	+111	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.178 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.76 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 50 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .326 | OPS .903
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.1%, L7 22.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 28.0%/50 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.0%, L7 8.9%, season 9.5%, BVP 6.0%/50 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 16.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Under 20.5 (-128) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 20.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 20.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 20.3 | selected line 20.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 20.5 at 4 books | 19.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 20.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 19.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	19.5	-130	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	20.5	-110	-125	-
BetOnline	20.5	-105	-135	-
DK	20.5	-104	-128	Selected
FanDuel	20.5	-112	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.147 vs line 20.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 20.3 | selected line 20.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.6 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 86 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .220 | OPS .585
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 21.3%, L7 18.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 12.8%/86 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.2%, L7 11.0%, season 9.1%, BVP 3.5%/86 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 20.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.40 | Season Avg 19.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 20.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-170) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+135	-
DK	17.5	-170	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.67 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.57 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 11 PA | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .455
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.1%, L7 24.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 10.3%, L7 9.7%, season 8.8% (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 17.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 (-114) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 6.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.21 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.65, BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 45 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .227 | OPS .676
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.6%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Over 5.5 (-140) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-140	+106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.22 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.65, BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 73 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .386 | OPS 1.054
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.9%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.5%/73 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Under 6.5 (-138) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-140	-
DK	6.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.7 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 12.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 6.4 IP (WHIP 1.12, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 20.3 outs/6.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 86 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .220 | OPS .585
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 21.3%, L7 18.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 12.8%/86 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Bennett Under 5.5 (-129) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .393
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.8%, L7 27.1%, season 24.8%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bailey Ober Under 5.5 (-151) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.27, BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .204 | OPS .617
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.7%, L7 23.3%, season 23.8%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (+111) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	-
DK	5.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .663
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/26 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 (-113) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 10.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 140 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .180 | OPS .543
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 22.6%, L7 19.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 17.1%/140 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (-116) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.9% / under 50.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .708
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.7%, L7 20.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 5.5 (-120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 3.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 88 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .215 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 19.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 12.5%/88 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (+108) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-165	+125	Recommended
DK	5.5	+108	-144	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 29 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .185 | OPS .464
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.2%, L7 26.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 24.1%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Martin Perez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.05280639493285 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.9 IP (BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 41 PA | K% 34.2% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .275 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 21.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 34.2%/41 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.2%, L7 11.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.4%/41 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sandy Alcantara Over 1.5 (-105) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9071247853098663 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 6.4 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 20.3 outs/6.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 86 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .220 | OPS .585
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 21.3%, L7 18.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 12.8%/86 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.2%, L7 11.0%, season 9.1%, BVP 3.5%/86 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-125) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8338972569623124 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 23.3%, L7 20.6%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 9.0%, L7 11.8%, season 8.7% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cade Cavalli Over 1.5 (-121) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8332399289276207 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 62 PA | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .255 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 14.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 16.1%/62 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.8%, L7 12.3%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.5%/62 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Walker Buehler Over 1.5 (-135) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8145190388446748 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 48 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .693
Opponent K profile: composite 15.6%, split 15.4%, L7 14.6%, season 18.5%, BVP 12.5%/48 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 9.1%, L7 7.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 4.2%/48 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 (-183) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -183 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.032753419258352 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 18.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.44 over 5.2 IP (BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.88x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 45 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .227 | OPS .676
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.6%/45 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 7.9%, L7 7.7%, season 7.1%, BVP 2.2%/45 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kade Anderson Over 1.5 (-131) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7209751967801539 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 16.9%, L7 14.4%, season 19.3% (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 7.9%, L7 5.8%, season 7.3% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 1/1 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Erick Fedde Under 1.5 (-122) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2873807729739828 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.0 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 13.8 outs/4.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 49 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .136 | OPS .386
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.8%, L7 17.1%, season 21.1%, BVP 26.5%/49 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.7%, L7 5.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jake Bennett Under 1.5 (-153) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3237071823387543 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.4 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .393
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.8%, L7 27.1%, season 24.8%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 8.3%, L7 11.8%, season 9.8%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Blake Snell Under 2.5 (-120) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3309111983597206 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.2 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 36 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 25.7%, L7 23.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.2%, split 11.0%, L7 6.9%, season 9.2%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.25 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/4 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (+134) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.667156859060781 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.2 IP (BB% 10.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 140 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .180 | OPS .543
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 22.6%, L7 19.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 17.1%/140 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 10.7%, L7 9.1%, season 10.7%, BVP 10.7%/140 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kevin Gausman Over 1.5 (-149) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.58173982296372 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.3 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 50 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .326 | OPS .903
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.1%, L7 22.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 28.0%/50 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.0%, L7 8.9%, season 9.5%, BVP 6.0%/50 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cal Quantrill Under 1.5 (+147) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4302593262312118 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 4.8 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 62.1% / under 37.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 60 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .302 | OPS .817
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 23.6%, L7 15.9%, season 21.3%, BVP 20.0%/60 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.3%, L7 7.9%, season 10.6%, BVP 10.0%/60 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 22/27 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bailey Ober Over 1.5 (-134) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5441683852379287 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.1 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .204 | OPS .617
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.7%, L7 23.3%, season 23.8%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 10.9%, L7 12.7%, season 9.3%, BVP 5.7%/53 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Keider Montero Over 1.5 (-128) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5378610981347942 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.2 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.18x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.179
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.2%, L7 22.8%, season 20.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.5%, split 12.0%, L7 12.7%, season 9.8% (adj 1.18x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/27 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jose Soriano Over 2.5 (+119) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.5560652578873264 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.2 IP (BB% 10.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 118 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .267 | OPS .701
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 19.8%, L7 25.4%, season 23.2%, BVP 26.3%/118 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 10.3%, L7 10.2%, season 9.0%, BVP 7.6%/118 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Carlos Rodon Under 2.5 (-181) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -181 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4584445521142158 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 4.6 IP (BB% 11.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.8% / under 60.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 95 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 8.4% | AVG .176 | OPS .573
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.8%, L7 16.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 26.3%/95 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.9%, L7 11.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 8.4%/95 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kyle Leahy Under 1.5 (-172) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4788976443747097 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.5 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 38 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .364 | OPS .936
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 22.6%, L7 30.8%, season 24.4%, BVP 31.6%/38 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 10.4%, L7 7.6%, season 9.1%, BVP 10.5%/38 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 22 play(s) (C 22)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bennett Sousa Over 0.5 (+125) diff 180.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.4 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 4.28)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 1.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 3.5 outs/1.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.1% / under 58.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Bennett Sousa: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .167 | OPS 1.042
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.3%, L7 24.3%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Blake Snell Over 1.5 (-117) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.16 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.90, ERA 3.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 36 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .143 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 25.7%, L7 23.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 22.2%/36 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/4 (25%) | L10 1/4 (25%) | L20 1/4 (25%) | Season 1/4 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/4 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Under 3.5 (-165) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.92 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 4.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 140 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .180 | OPS .543
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 22.6%, L7 19.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 17.1%/140 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 21/27 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Erick Fedde Under 2.5 (-149) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+112	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.78 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.75, ERA 4.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 13.8 outs/4.6 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Erick Fedde: 49 PA | K% 26.5% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .136 | OPS .386
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 17.8%, L7 17.1%, season 21.1%, BVP 26.5%/49 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Martin Perez Under 2.5 (-161) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+121	-161	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 2.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 41 PA | K% 34.2% | BB% 2.4% | AVG .275 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 21.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 34.2%/41 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 (-111) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-119	-111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.67 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.62, ERA 2.14)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 60 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .302 | OPS .817
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 23.6%, L7 15.9%, season 21.3%, BVP 20.0%/60 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 24/27 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Over 1.5 (-114) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.43 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.69, ERA 2.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 38 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .364 | OPS .936
Opponent K profile: composite 26.0%, split 22.6%, L7 30.8%, season 24.4%, BVP 31.6%/38 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bailey Ober Over 2.5 (-128) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	-
DK	2.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.92 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.91, ERA 4.43)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .204 | OPS .617
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 24.7%, L7 23.3%, season 23.8%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 (-142) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	-
DK	2.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.43 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 5.20, ERA 4.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.333
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 19.1%, L7 18.6%, season 22.3% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-134) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+101	-134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.73 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 4.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .143 | OPS .393
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.8%, L7 27.1%, season 24.8%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-142) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.84 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.76, ERA 4.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 50 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 6.0% | AVG .326 | OPS .903
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.1%, L7 22.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 28.0%/50 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kade Anderson Under 2.5 (-137) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	-
DK	2.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 4.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 16.9%, L7 14.4%, season 19.3% (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 0/1 (0%) | L10 0/1 (0%) | L20 0/1 (0%) | Season 0/1 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/1 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Under 2.5 (-142) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.87 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.79, ERA 3.96)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .708
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.7%, L7 20.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Under 2.5 (-152) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
DK	2.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.13 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.98)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 48 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .222 | OPS .693
Opponent K profile: composite 15.6%, split 15.4%, L7 14.6%, season 18.5%, BVP 12.5%/48 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 (-102) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-131	-102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.36 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.55, ERA 2.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 29 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .185 | OPS .464
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.2%, L7 26.0%, season 25.1%, BVP 24.1%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 (-155) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+116	-155	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.3 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 5.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.96 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.98, ERA 6.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 73 PA | K% 20.5% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .386 | OPS 1.054
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.9%, L7 21.7%, season 21.6%, BVP 20.5%/73 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Keider Montero Under 2.5 (-136) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	-
DK	2.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.59, ERA 3.53)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.179
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.2%, L7 22.8%, season 20.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (-117) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	-
DK	2.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 6.4 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 2.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 20.3 outs/6.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 86 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 3.5% | AVG .220 | OPS .585
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 21.3%, L7 18.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 12.8%/86 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Over 2.5 (+102) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.22 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.49, ERA 3.62)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 88 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .215 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.6%, L7 19.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 12.5%/88 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/25 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Daniel Lynch IV Under 1.5 (+119) Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-159	+119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 3.2 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.43)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.2 IP (HIGH; season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.2 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Daniel Lynch IV: 63 PA | K% 12.7% | BB% 15.9% | AVG .260 | OPS .797
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 17.4%, L7 18.5%, season 21.5%, BVP 12.7%/63 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 45/50 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-105) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-127	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.10 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.11, ERA 4.18)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.2% / under 47.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 38 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .200 | OPS .663
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.3%, L7 25.9%, season 22.5%, BVP 23.7%/38 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Under 2.5 (+109) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-145	+109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.20 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.28, ERA 7.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 15 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 22.8%, L7 23.8%, season 24.4%, BVP 33.3%/15 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 18/31 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

31 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Blake Snell	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers	79.0	76.5	89.5	4	Slider (56% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 36.1%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.236, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kade Anderson	Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays	78.2	72.0	77.0	4	Curveball (67% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 25.1%, xwOBA 0.261, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	67.1	54.4	83.5	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.248, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels	66.5	72.4	65.5	3	Changeup (47% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 25.1%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Bennett Sousa	Houston Astros vs New York Mets	65.2	65.0	62.0	3	Slider (40% whiff, 73% usage)	Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	60.5	64.9	59.5	6	Slider (40% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers	58.2	57.7	60.5	6	Slider (40% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	57.4	51.3	66.5	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	56.1	59.2	51.5	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	55.7	58.7	55.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	55.4	56.8	55.5	4	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Houston Astros	55.2	55.8	59.5	7	Curveball (40% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	54.4	59.7	53.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	53.3	64.2	45.0	5	Curveball (45% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	50.9	43.5	59.5	7	Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians	49.9	52.1	54.0	5	Slider (41% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	49.2	37.4	62.5	5	Slider (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics	48.9	45.8	52.0	5	Curveball (30% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	47.8	47.5	49.0	7	Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers	45.4	37.0	55.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays	45.0	39.9	50.0	7	Changeup (27% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	43.6	44.4	41.5	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies	42.2	39.6	45.5	5	Changeup (35% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	42.0	47.5	39.0	6	Changeup (32% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	40.5	38.1	40.5	6	Sweeper (42% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	39.8	26.3	49.0	6	Slurve (19% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 15.3%, put-away 12.1%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies	39.8	43.6	30.5	4	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres	39.6	32.4	48.0	6	Changeup (31% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 17.1%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	39.2	34.4	41.5	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves	38.0	44.1	29.0	6	Changeup (46% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	25.4	39.5	8.5	6	Slider (35% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.398, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

31 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	R	14.8%	4.9	5.6	5.5	82	short	full	8.50	91.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	L	18.9%	4.8	4.4	4.6	80	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles	R	24.5%	4.3	4.6	4.5	72	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies	L	17.1%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics	R	21.8%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	L	19.5%	5.5	5.8	5.8	92	normal	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	R	23.0%	5.5	5.6	5.5	92	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	R	15.9%	3.0	4.8	4.4	50	short	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.0 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	L	17.4%	5.5	5.4	5.4	92	normal	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals	L	21.2%	5.0	5.7	5.6	84	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves	R	14.8%	5.3	4.9	5.0	89	normal	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	14.1%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Bennett Sousa	Houston Astros vs New York Mets	L	24.2%	1.1	-	4.8	18	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians	L	18.3%	2.5	3.1	4.2	42	short	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	16.9%	4.9	4.8	4.8	82	short	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Blake Snell	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers	L	26.4%	5.2	5.2	5.5	87	normal	full	89.50	10.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	R	17.6%	6.6	6.6	6.6	111	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers	L	22.8%	4.6	5.2	5.1	77	short	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	R	14.8%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Houston Astros	R	25.1%	5.8	5.7	6.0	97	normal	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	L	24.4%	4.6	4.9	4.9	77	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	L	26.5%	4.8	5.8	5.6	80	short	full	83.50	16.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels	L	28.5%	5.8	6.2	6.2	97	normal	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Lake Bachar	Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	22.6%	2.0	2.3	3.4	34	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.0 IP/start
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	18.8%	5.2	4.9	4.9	87	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Kade Anderson	Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	22.5%	-	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	77.00	23.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%, recent_form_unavailable
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	23.6%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres	R	15.4%	5.9	5.9	5.9	99	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	18.7%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	R	22.0%	5.1	5.5	5.5	86	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	R	28.9%	6.4	5.3	6.0	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Merrill Kelly	Merrill Kelly Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	14.1	-3.4	19.3%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.5	82	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels	18.5	21.1	2.6	13.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min
Blake Snell	Blake Snell Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	15.4	-2.1	11.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min
Foster Griffin	Foster Griffin Under	Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.6	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cade Cavalli	Cade Cavalli Over	Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals	17.5	18.2	0.7	3.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Under	San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Under	Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals	20.5	20.1	-0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.6	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	Houston Astros @ New York Mets	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes