| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 598 | 55% | -25.55u | 34 | 53% | -2.52u | 282 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 514 | 57% | +5.17u | 22 | 45% | -4.90u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 4 | 75% | +0.92u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 103 | 71% | -8.91u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 633 | 56% | -28.50u | 48 | 52% | -5.87u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 426 | 61% | -7.05u | 12 | 83% | +4.81u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 129 | 48% | -13.70u | 4 | 75% | +1.49u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 2 | 0% | -2.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 3 | 0% | -3.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 9 | 78% | +3.31u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers | 79.0 | 76.5 | 89.5 | 4 | Slider (56% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 36.1%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.236, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kade Anderson | Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | 78.2 | 72.0 | 77.0 | 4 | Curveball (67% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 25.1%, xwOBA 0.261, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | 67.1 | 54.4 | 83.5 | 7 | Changeup (29% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.248, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels | 66.5 | 72.4 | 65.5 | 3 | Changeup (47% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 25.1%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Bennett Sousa | Houston Astros vs New York Mets | 65.2 | 65.0 | 62.0 | 3 | Slider (40% whiff, 73% usage) | Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | 60.5 | 64.9 | 59.5 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | 58.2 | 57.7 | 60.5 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | 57.4 | 51.3 | 66.5 | 6 | Changeup (35% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | 56.1 | 59.2 | 51.5 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | 55.7 | 58.7 | 55.0 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | 55.4 | 56.8 | 55.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Houston Astros | 55.2 | 55.8 | 59.5 | 7 | Curveball (40% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | 54.4 | 59.7 | 53.0 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | 53.3 | 64.2 | 45.0 | 5 | Curveball (45% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.4%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | 50.9 | 43.5 | 59.5 | 7 | Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | 49.9 | 52.1 | 54.0 | 5 | Slider (41% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 49.2 | 37.4 | 62.5 | 5 | Slider (29% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics | 48.9 | 45.8 | 52.0 | 5 | Curveball (30% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | 47.8 | 47.5 | 49.0 | 7 | Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers | 45.4 | 37.0 | 55.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays | 45.0 | 39.9 | 50.0 | 7 | Changeup (27% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | 43.6 | 44.4 | 41.5 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | 42.2 | 39.6 | 45.5 | 5 | Changeup (35% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 42.0 | 47.5 | 39.0 | 6 | Changeup (32% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | 40.5 | 38.1 | 40.5 | 6 | Sweeper (42% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | 39.8 | 26.3 | 49.0 | 6 | Slurve (19% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 15.3%, put-away 12.1%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies | 39.8 | 43.6 | 30.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (34% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres | 39.6 | 32.4 | 48.0 | 6 | Changeup (31% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 17.1%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | 39.2 | 34.4 | 41.5 | 5 | Changeup (26% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves | 38.0 | 44.1 | 29.0 | 6 | Changeup (46% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | 25.4 | 39.5 | 8.5 | 6 | Slider (35% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.398, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | R | 14.8% | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 82 | short | full | 8.50 | 91.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | L | 18.9% | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 80 | short | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 24.5% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 72 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies | L | 17.1% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics | R | 21.8% | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 96 | normal | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | L | 19.5% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 23.0% | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | R | 15.9% | 3.0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 50 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.0 IP/start |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | L | 17.4% | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 92 | normal | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Foster Griffin | Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals | L | 21.2% | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 84 | short | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves | R | 14.8% | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 89 | normal | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 14.1% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Bennett Sousa | Houston Astros vs New York Mets | L | 24.2% | 1.1 | - | 4.8 | 18 | short | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.1 IP/start |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 18.3% | 2.5 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 42 | short | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 16.9% | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 82 | short | full | 30.50 | 69.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Blake Snell | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers | L | 26.4% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 89.50 | 10.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | R | 17.6% | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 111 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | L | 22.8% | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 77 | short | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | R | 14.8% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Houston Astros | R | 25.1% | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | L | 24.4% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 77 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | L | 26.5% | 4.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 80 | short | full | 83.50 | 16.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 28.5% | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 97 | normal | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Lake Bachar | Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 22.6% | 2.0 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 34 | short | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.0 IP/start |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 18.8% | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 87 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.5% |
| Kade Anderson | Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 22.5% | - | 5.7 | 5.7 | 96 | normal | full | 77.00 | 23.00 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.3%, recent_form_unavailable |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 23.6% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres | R | 15.4% | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 99 | normal | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 18.7% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| José Soriano | Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | R | 22.0% | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | R | 28.9% | 6.4 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 107 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Merrill Kelly Under | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 14.1 | -3.4 | 19.3% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.5 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels | 18.5 | 21.1 | 2.6 | 13.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.2 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min |
| Blake Snell | Blake Snell Under | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 15.4 | -2.1 | 11.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min |
| Foster Griffin | Foster Griffin Under | Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 16.4 | -1.1 | 6.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.6 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cade Cavalli | Cade Cavalli Over | Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 3.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Nick Martinez | Nick Martinez Under | San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 2.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 2.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Under | Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | 20.5 | 20.1 | -0.3 | 1.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.6 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5 |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | Houston Astros @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143 | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@ANG | 10:08 PM | 7.5 | 9.3 | -143 | BetOnline Over 7.5 -137 | best price | 24.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade… | K Prop | Blake Snell Over | DOD@TIG | 1:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.8 | -153 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -135 | best price | 19.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Merrill Kelly Under | DIA@GIA | 10:06 PM | 17.5 | 14.1 | -125 | DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact | 19.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Martin Perez Under | ROC@BRA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 3.7 | -150 | DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 32.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Johnson Under | PHI@ANG | 10:08 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -131 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-222); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Nick Martinez Over | PAD@RAY | 4:11 PM | 0.5 | 1.0 | -222 | DK Over 0.5 -222 | exact | 91.8% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Nolan McLean Over | AST@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -169 | DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact | 57.5% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-207); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Feltner Under | ROC@BRA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -207 | DK Under 2.5 -207 | exact | 27.8% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Walks | Daniel Lynch IV Under | ROY@GUA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -138 | DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact | 26.1% | ✓✓!––✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-193); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Foster Griffin Under | ROY@GUA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -193 | DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact | 18.1% | ✓!!––✓ | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Lake Bachar Over | PIR@CAR | 2:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.3 | -145 | BetMGM Over 0.5 -145 | exact | 160.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@GIA | 10:06 PM | 2.5 | 3.7 | -122 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price | 48.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Drohan Over | RAN@BRE | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -142 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Carlos Rodon Over | SOX@YAN | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -171 | DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Soriano Over | MAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -160 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 33.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Cavalli Over | MAR@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -161 | DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Nolan McLean Over | AST@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -159 | DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | MAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | +105 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +114 | best price | 20.6% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Kyle Leahy Over | PIR@CAR | 2:16 PM | 3.5 | 5.4 | -158 | DK Over 3.5 -158 | exact | 55.4% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kade Anderson Over | MAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -113 | DK Over 4.5 -113 | exact | 22.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Max Fried Over | SOX@YAN | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -120 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | exact | 22.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Merrill Kelly Under | DIA@GIA | 10:06 PM | 4.5 | 3.5 | -135 | theScore Bet Under 4.5 -135 | best price | 21.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Bennett Over | SOX@YAN | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | -112 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 19.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@RAY | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -139 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -136 | best price | 18.6% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Under | ROY@GUA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -116 | DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact | 8.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Over | PHI@ANG | 10:08 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -112 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +102 | best price | 7.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Under | MAR@NAT | 4:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.1 | -128 | FanDuel Under 6.5 -128 | best price | 6.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Perkins Over | ORI@ATH | 10:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -137 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -130 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cal Quantrill Under | RAN@BRE | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | +122 | BetMGM Under 3.5 +125 | best price | 4.6% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@NAT | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +118 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +118 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Carlos Rodon Under | SOX@YAN | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -140 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Under | RED@CUB | 2:21 PM | 6.5 | 6.3 | -146 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price | 2.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martin Perez Over | ROC@BRA | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +121 | BetOnline Over 4.5 +122 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Baz Under | ORI@ATH | 10:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -156 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Keider Montero Over | DOD@TIG | 1:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -110 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -110 | best price | 1.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Drohan Under | RAN@BRE | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -116 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -113 | best price | 0.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@ANG | 10:08 PM | 18.5 | 21.1 | +107 | DK Over 18.5 +107 | exact | 13.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Blake Snell Under | DOD@TIG | 1:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.4 | +122 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +142 | best price | 11.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Foster Griffin Under | ROY@GUA | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.4 | +136 | BetOnline Under 17.5 +145 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cade Cavalli Over | MAR@NAT | 4:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -171 | BetOnline Over 17.5 -165 | best price | 3.9% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nick Martinez Under | PAD@RAY | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | -104 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +102 | best price | 2.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shane Baz Under | ORI@ATH | 10:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | +102 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 2.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kevin Gausman Under | RED@CUB | 2:21 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | +111 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +118 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@NAT | 4:06 PM | 20.5 | 20.1 | -128 | FanDuel Under 20.5 -120 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | AST@MET | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -170 | DK Over 17.5 -170 | exact | 1.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@GIA | 10:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | -114 | DK Over 5.5 -114 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Feltner Over | ROC@BRA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -140 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@NAT | 4:06 PM | 6.5 | 5.7 | -138 | DK Under 6.5 -138 | exact | 12.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jake Bennett Under | SOX@YAN | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -129 | DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bailey Ober Under | SOX@TWI | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Under | ORI@ATH | 10:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | +111 | DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Andrew Abbott Under | RED@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -113 | DK Under 5.5 -113 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Foster Griffin Under | ROY@GUA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -116 | DK Under 5.5 -116 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Martinez Under | PAD@RAY | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -120 | DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@ANG | 10:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +108 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue | 1.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Martin Perez Over | ROC@BRA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +132 | DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact | 36.9% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -105 | DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact | 27.1% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Shane Drohan Over | RAN@BRE | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -125 | DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact | 22.3% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Cade Cavalli Over | MAR@NAT | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -121 | DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact | 22.2% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Walker Buehler Over | PAD@RAY | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -135 | DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact | 21.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Merrill Kelly Under | DIA@GIA | 10:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -183 | DK Under 2.5 -183 | exact | 18.7% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Kade Anderson Over | MAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -131 | DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact | 14.7% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Erick Fedde Under | SOX@TWI | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -122 | DK Under 1.5 -122 | exact | 14.2% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jake Bennett Under | SOX@YAN | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -153 | DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact | 11.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Blake Snell Under | DOD@TIG | 1:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -120 | DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact | 6.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@CUB | 2:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +134 | DK Over 2.5 +134 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Kevin Gausman Over | RED@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -149 | DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cal Quantrill Under | RAN@BRE | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | +147 | DK Under 1.5 +147 | exact | 4.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Bailey Ober Over | SOX@TWI | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -134 | DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact | 2.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Keider Montero Over | DOD@TIG | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -128 | DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact | 2.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jose Soriano Over | MAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +119 | DK Over 2.5 +119 | exact | 2.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Carlos Rodon Under | SOX@YAN | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -181 | DK Under 2.5 -181 | exact | 1.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Leahy Under | PIR@CAR | 2:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -172 | DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact | 1.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Bennett Sousa Over | AST@MET | 4:11 PM | 0.5 | 1.4 | +125 | BetMGM Over 0.5 +125 | exact | 180.0% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Blake Snell Over | DOD@TIG | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -117 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price | 20.0% | ✓!✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Abbott Under | RED@CUB | 2:21 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -165 | DK Under 3.5 -165 | exact | 17.1% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Erick Fedde Under | SOX@TWI | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -149 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Martin Perez Under | ROC@BRA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -161 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Cal Quantrill Under | RAN@BRE | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -111 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Leahy Over | PIR@CAR | 2:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -114 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price | 13.3% | ✓!✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Bailey Ober Over | SOX@TWI | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -128 | DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Over | PHI@ANG | 10:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -142 | DK Over 2.5 -142 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Bennett Under | SOX@YAN | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -134 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kevin Gausman Under | RED@CUB | 2:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -142 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kade Anderson Under | MAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -137 | DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Foster Griffin Under | ROY@GUA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -142 | DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@RAY | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -152 | DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Under | PHI@ANG | 10:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -102 | BetMGM Under 1.5 +110 | best price | 6.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Feltner Under | ROC@BRA | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -155 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Keider Montero Under | DOD@TIG | 1:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -136 | DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@NAT | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -117 | DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Martinez Over | PAD@RAY | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +102 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Daniel Lynch IV Under | ROY@GUA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +119 | BetMGM Under 1.5 +125 | best price | - | ✓✗!––✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Under | ORI@ATH | 10:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -105 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Perkins Under | ORI@ATH | 10:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +109 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@CUB | 2:21 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -147 | DK Over 3.5 -147 | exact | 19.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Bailey Ober Under | SOX@TWI | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -156 | DK Under 4.5 -156 | exact | 17.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | AST@MET | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -136 | DK Over 5.5 -136 | exact | 11.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Over | ROC@BRA | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -142 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -134 | best price | 7.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Martinez Under | PAD@RAY | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -110 | DK Under 3.5 -110 | exact | 2.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context