MLB Bets 2026-08-24

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	319W–191L–0P	63%	-48.51 u	Last 14 days • 510 settled
Grade A	13W–14L–0P	48%	-4.58 u
Grade B	306W–173L–0P	64%	-39.94 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3725W–2339L–8P	61%	-266.83 u	All-time • 6072 settled
Grade A	267W–212L–0P	56%	-12.42 u
Grade B	3456W–2118L–8P	62%	-247.97 u

83 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-24	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-24	K Prop	Drew Rasmussen	4.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-24	K Prop	Kumar Rocker	4.5	-112	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-24	K Prop	Logan Gilbert	5.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Braxton Ashcraft	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-24	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-24	Pitcher Hits Allow	Braxton Ashcraft	5.5	-142	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-23	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	6.5	-144	-	WIN	+0.694	Cristopher Sánchez: 7.0 (line 6.5)
2026-08-23	K Prop	Shota Imanaga	5.5	-116	-	LOSS	-1.000	Shota Imanaga: 4.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	591	55%	-25.42u	52	52%	-5.37u	279	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	512	57%	+3.68u	31	39%	-10.59u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	7	71%	+1.62u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	199	76%	-4.09u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	629	57%	-26.30u	72	60%	+0.13u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	426	61%	-7.05u	14	79%	+4.38u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	1	100%	+0.38u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	129	48%	-13.70u	8	50%	-1.05u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	2	0%	-2.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	6	0%	-6.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	18	44%	-4.03u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 18 total candidate(s); season N 591, 14d N 52	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 512, 14d N 31	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 7	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 18 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 18/18 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 129, 14d N 8	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 18	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 818 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 227 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 794 pitcher(s), 3503 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 594 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 18 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 20 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 20 roster team(s), 260 hitter(s) \| 18 SP matchup(s), 736 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 260 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 20 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Athletics
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 20 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Seattle Mariners, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 16 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 349 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 10/10 game(s) with pitching props \| K 18 line(s)/10 game(s); Outs 20 line(s)/10 game(s); Hits Allowed 13 line(s)/6 game(s); Walks 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Earned Runs 12 line(s)/6 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 60, bovada_direct 3
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 206 market side(s) checked \| 206 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 10 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 639 \| batter bats 318 \| batter hand splits 137 \| pitcher HR splits 54 \| batter pitch-type 594 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 10 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow blocked: 82 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_ARTIFACT_MISSING

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-137	+114	-1.5 (+128)	1.5 (-155)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-149	+123	-1.5 (+123)	1.5 (-149)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+157	-192	1.5 (-132)	-1.5 (+110)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-168	+139	-1.5 (+104)	1.5 (-126)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	-149	+123	-1.5 (+109)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres	9:40 PM	-109	-111	-1.5 (+150)	1.5 (-182)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+100)	1.5 (-120)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+152)	1.5 (-185)	O/U 6.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants	9:45 PM	-162	+134	-1.5 (+119)	1.5 (-144)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 6 Grade B | 41 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153	K Prop	Logan Gilbert Over	PHI@MAR	9:41 PM	5.5	6.6	-153	FanDuel Over 5.5 -140 \| best price	20.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Cade Cavalli Over

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 6

K Prop - Parker Messick Under

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.7

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 (-153) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-147	+113	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+110	-
DK	5.5	-153	+120	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.1% / under 42.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.1, proj 6.6K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.8% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 98 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .240 | OPS .661
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 98 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.7%, L7 12.2%, season 22.2%, active roster 20.4%/8 hitters, BVP 28.6%/98 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 12.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.28
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153 -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (6 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 (-162) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-162	+126	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 36.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.3% / under 41.7%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 9.7, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.275 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .417 | OPS 1.107
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 25 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.2%, L7 18.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 30.7% vs season 26.1%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -162, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.107/AVG 0.417 over 25 PA, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.64K, diff 36.5%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 (-112) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-112	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.8% / under 50.2%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kumar Rocker: K/9 8.3, proj 5.7K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 36.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 32 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .067 | OPS .192
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 24.4%, L7 25.0%, season 23.9%, active roster 26.2%/6 hitters, BVP 25.0%/32 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 25.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.54
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Chase Burns Over 6.5 (-120) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	6.5	-120	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 23.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chase Burns: K/9 10.8, proj 8.0K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.5% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.270 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Slider: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .473
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 20.5%, L7 29.2%, season 21.3% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 6.62
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.51K, diff 23.3%, books 100%)

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Braxton Ashcraft Under 5.5 (-142) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 0.97, BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.8%, L7 20.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-126) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 44.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.21 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 5.05, ERA 5.82)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 130 PA | K% 17.7% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .244 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.5%, L7 22.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.7%/130 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 1.5 (-167) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.04 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 3.17, ERA 3.35)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.8%, L7 20.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (41 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 14 play(s) (B 5 | C 9)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 (+124) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +124

Selected market: Over 42.2% / Under 57.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+124	-158	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+126	-162	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.2% / under 57.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 9.0, proj 6.7K over 6.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 30.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.8%, L7 20.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.36
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 (-124) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-124	-103	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.75K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.2% / under 47.8%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 6.3, proj 5.2K over 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 31 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .647
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 15.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 25.8%/31 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cade Cavalli Over 6.5 (+104) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -174 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -174 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-180	+135	-
FanDuel	5.5	-174	+136	Recommended
DK	6.5	+104	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 10.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.2% / under 53.8%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
Cade Cavalli: K/9 10.1, proj 7.2K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.7% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .174 | OPS .469
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.1%, L7 23.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 5.5 (-111) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-119	-109	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-111	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-120	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.7% / under 50.3%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.4, proj 6.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 42 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .205 | OPS .493
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 25.2%, L7 27.3%, season 24.3%, BVP 33.3%/42 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 10/25 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.68
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Zack Wheeler Under 7.5 (-153) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 7.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -153

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 7.1 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 7.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	6.5	-154	+120	-
BetOnline	7.5	+117	-152	Recommended
DK	7.5	+120	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 7.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Zack Wheeler: K/9 11.2, proj 6.9K over 5.2 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 22.7% | xwOBA 0.260 | top pitch: Split-Finger (46% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 64 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .183 | OPS .451
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 18.3%, L7 24.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 29.7%/64 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 6.86
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-155) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -155

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	5.5	+120	-159	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+122	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-158	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 14.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.81K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.6% / under 57.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ranger Suarez: K/9 8.2, proj 4.7K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .050 | OPS .145
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 17.1%, L7 21.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.14
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5
K% trend: headwind -6.6 ppts (recent 17.6% vs season 24.2%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 (-162) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-162	+127	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.4% / under 41.6%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Feltner: K/9 5.8, proj 4.0K over 5.1 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.358 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 21.4%, L7 23.6%, season 21.7% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.37
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Framber Valdez Under 4.5 (-151) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+119	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.53K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.2% / under 56.8%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.1, proj 4.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Curveball: 25.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 9.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .762
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.3%, split 16.8%, L7 16.3%, season 18.7%, active roster 15.7%/6 hitters, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 16.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 16.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 (-162) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+127	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.6% / under 58.4%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kevin Gausman: K/9 8.9, proj 4.9K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Split-Finger: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 87 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .212 | OPS .576
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 87 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 17.2%, L7 18.0%, season 19.1%, BVP 14.9%/87 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Under 4.5 (-124) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -124

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	-103	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.7, proj 4.1K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 21 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .235 | OPS .627
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.76
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 (-158) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 3.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-158	+124	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.8% / under 42.2%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.3, proj 3.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.399 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 130 PA | K% 17.7% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .244 | OPS .669
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 130 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.5%, L7 22.6%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.3%/7 hitters, BVP 17.7%/130 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.5%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.65
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jeffrey Springs Over 3.5 (+100) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-105	-123	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	+100	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jeffrey Springs: K/9 6.0, proj 3.7K over 4.6 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.344 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 30.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 54 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .196 | OPS .554
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.4%, L7 15.7%, season 21.2%, BVP 27.8%/54 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.87
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
K% trend: headwind -8.4 ppts (recent 9.3% vs season 17.7%, proj adj -4.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Klassen Over 4.5 (+131) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+134	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+140	-185	-
DK	4.5	+131	-168	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+142	-184	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.8% / under 59.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
George Klassen: K/9 8.7, proj 4.7K over 4.5 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.9% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Slider (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs George Klassen: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 15.8%, L7 16.0%, season 21.5%, active roster 18.1%/7 hitters (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 16.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Parker Messick Under 7.5 (-157) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 6.5 +117; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-152	+117	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	6.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	6.5	-148	+116	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-155	+110	-
DK	7.5	+123	-157	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 0.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Parker Messick: K/9 9.8, proj 7.4K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.267 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .694
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.8%, L7 25.0%, season 25.2%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.08
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 7.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.3 ppts (recent 29.0% vs season 25.7%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 11 play(s) (C 11)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 (-162) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
DK	17.5	-162	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.354 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 16.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.17 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 20.8%, L7 20.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 9.9%, L7 12.0%, season 9.3% (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.85 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.85 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Ranger Suarez Under 17.5 (+111) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-148	+111	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-152	+112	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 15.067 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 72)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.0 | pitch-count proxy 72
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .050 | OPS .145
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 17.1%, L7 21.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.9%, L7 12.0%, season 9.1%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.50 | Season Avg 15.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.43 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.43 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (+114) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+114	-151	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+110	-152	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.455 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 10.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 31 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 15.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 25.8%/31 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 7.3%, L7 9.1%, season 8.4%, BVP 6.5%/31 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.00 | Season Avg 19.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 18.5 (-173) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+129	-173	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+120	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.643 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 10.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.22 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 9.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.8%, L7 16.3%, season 18.7%, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.2%, L7 6.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.0%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 16.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 18.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -1.86 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -1.86 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-164) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
DK	17.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.241000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.35 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .694
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.8%, L7 25.0%, season 25.2%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 12.0%, L7 6.1%, season 8.3%, BVP 11.8%/17 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.70 | Season Avg 17.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Over 17.5 (-216) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -216

Selected market: Over 64.1% / Under 35.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 64.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-230	+160	-
DK	17.5	-216	+161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.108999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.54 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 64.1% / under 35.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 64.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 98 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .240 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 18.7%, L7 12.2%, season 22.2%, BVP 28.6%/98 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 9.4%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.0%/98 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 18.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Over 17.5 (-144) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-144	+108	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.988 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .417 | OPS 1.107
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.2%, L7 18.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 10.8%, L7 11.4%, season 9.4%, BVP 4.0%/25 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.30 | Season Avg 16.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cade Cavalli Over 17.5 (-209) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -209

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-220	+155	-
DK	17.5	-209	+156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.825 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.22 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.4% / under 36.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Cade Cavalli: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .174 | OPS .469
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.1%, L7 23.8%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.3%, L7 11.0%, season 8.3%, BVP 0.0%/24 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 15.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zebby Matthews Under 17.5 (-125) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
DK	17.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.409000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.17 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 21 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .235 | OPS .627
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 12.0%, split 14.2%, L7 10.7%, season 8.8%, BVP 14.3%/21 PA (adj 1.21x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 12.0%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 17.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Chase Burns Over 17.5 (-110) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.145000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.46 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .473
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 20.5%, L7 29.2%, season 21.3% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.6%, L7 8.1%, season 7.1% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Under 17.5 (+132) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +132

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-176	+132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.15 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.94 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 67)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 67
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 64 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .183 | OPS .451
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 18.3%, L7 24.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 29.7%/64 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.6%, L7 10.9%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.7%/64 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 17.19
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 (-105) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.60, BB% 10.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 130 PA | K% 17.7% | BB% 8.5% | AVG .244 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 21.5%, L7 22.6%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.7%/130 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 6.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Under 5.5 (-140) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, L7 22.6%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Under 5.5 (+103) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-140	+100	-
DK	5.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 6.2 IP (WHIP 1.09, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 31 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 15.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 25.8%/31 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 (-117) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.26 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.66, BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 54 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .196 | OPS .554
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.4%, L7 15.7%, season 21.2%, BVP 27.8%/54 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Under 6.5 (-150) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.4 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 9.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.8%, L7 16.3%, season 18.7%, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 (+111) Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	-
DK	5.5	-148	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 21 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .235 | OPS .627
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Over 1.5 (-169) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.43 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.43, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .050 | OPS .145
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 17.1%, L7 21.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 (-155) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.79 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.21, ERA 2.69)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 25 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .417 | OPS 1.107
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.2%, L7 18.4%, season 22.4%, BVP 20.0%/25 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jeffrey Springs Under 3.5 (-153) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.90 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 5.07, ERA 6.51)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jeffrey Springs: 54 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .196 | OPS .554
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.4%, L7 15.7%, season 21.2%, BVP 27.8%/54 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — George Klassen Under 2.5 (-141) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.44, ERA 4.04)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs George Klassen: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 17.4%, split 15.8%, L7 16.0%, season 21.5% (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/5 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Over 2.5 (-124) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.26 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 4.11)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 67 PA | K% 20.9% | BB% 9.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .762
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.8%, L7 16.3%, season 18.7%, BVP 20.9%/67 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/25 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-135) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 4.89)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 21 PA | K% 9.5% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .235 | OPS .627
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.5%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Parker Messick Over 1.5 (-174) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.72 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.35, ERA 2.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .694
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 22.8%, L7 25.0%, season 25.2%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Under 2.5 (-126) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.53 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 2.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 31 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 15.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 25.8%/31 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Under 2.5 (-139) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.32 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 3.02)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 42 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .205 | OPS .493
Opponent K profile: composite 26.5%, split 25.2%, L7 27.3%, season 24.3%, BVP 33.3%/42 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-161) Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.08 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 4.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 87 PA | K% 14.9% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .212 | OPS .576
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 17.2%, L7 18.0%, season 19.1%, BVP 14.9%/87 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

18 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners	70.4	67.9	77.5	6	Split-Finger (46% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants	67.8	67.8	72.5	3	Slider (52% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.5%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels	62.0	54.2	74.0	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres	60.4	59.1	65.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers	59.9	53.4	70.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies	58.8	63.4	58.5	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	56.1	58.7	56.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks	54.5	57.5	52.5	4	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins	53.9	49.9	60.0	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox	50.6	43.2	59.0	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians	47.0	63.9	32.5	5	Slider (49% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	47.0	53.6	41.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates	46.3	50.8	43.0	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays	44.0	42.2	45.5	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	42.3	41.7	41.5	6	Slider (34% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	41.8	44.5	35.5	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	38.0	44.6	28.5	6	Changeup (47% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs	25.1	39.3	8.0	6	Slider (34% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.399, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

18 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs	R	15.5%	4.9	5.6	5.5	82	short	full	8.00	92.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Jeffrey Springs	Athletics vs Minnesota Twins	L	14.7%	3.9	4.9	4.7	65	short	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins	L	21.9%	4.3	5.2	5.0	72	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	23.0%	5.3	5.5	5.5	89	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants	R	29.5%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels	L	26.9%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals	R	14.2%	5.2	4.8	4.9	87	normal	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	17.8%	5.9	5.5	5.6	99	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.7%
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians	R	21.6%	4.2	4.3	4.9	70	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox	R	17.4%	6.6	6.5	6.5	111	deep	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Athletics	R	20.0%	5.2	5.7	5.6	87	normal	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners	R	29.8%	4.0	5.7	5.4	67	short	full	77.50	22.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres	R	25.6%	6.6	6.0	6.1	111	deep	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	19.7%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	25.2%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers	R	27.7%	6.0	5.6	6.0	101	deep	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox	R	20.3%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	R	27.6%	6.4	5.3	6.0	107	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres	17.5	20.4	2.9	16.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.85 <= 3 min
Ranger Suarez	Ranger Suarez Under	Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins	17.5	15.1	-2.4	13.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.0	72	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.43 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.5	1.9	10.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	16.6	-1.9	10.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -1.86 <= 3 min
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	19.2	1.7	10.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cade Cavalli	Cade Cavalli Over	Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals	17.5	18.8	1.3	7.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Under	Minnesota Twins @ Athletics	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Chase Burns	Chase Burns Over	Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	18.1	0.7	3.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Under	Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.1	-0.3	2.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.4	67	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes