| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 591 | 55% | -25.42u | 52 | 52% | -5.37u | 279 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 512 | 57% | +3.68u | 31 | 39% | -10.59u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 7 | 71% | +1.62u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 199 | 76% | -4.09u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 629 | 57% | -26.30u | 72 | 60% | +0.13u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 426 | 61% | -7.05u | 14 | 79% | +4.38u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 1 | 100% | +0.38u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 129 | 48% | -13.70u | 8 | 50% | -1.05u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 2 | 0% | -2.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 6 | 0% | -6.00u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 18 | 44% | -4.03u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners | 70.4 | 67.9 | 77.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (46% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants | 67.8 | 67.8 | 72.5 | 3 | Slider (52% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 31.5%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels | 62.0 | 54.2 | 74.0 | 6 | Changeup (35% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres | 60.4 | 59.1 | 65.0 | 5 | Curveball (39% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers | 59.9 | 53.4 | 70.0 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | 58.8 | 63.4 | 58.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | 56.1 | 58.7 | 56.0 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.5 | 57.5 | 52.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins | 53.9 | 49.9 | 60.0 | 6 | Curveball (41% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox | 50.6 | 43.2 | 59.0 | 7 | Changeup (29% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| George Klassen | Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | 47.0 | 63.9 | 32.5 | 5 | Slider (49% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | 47.0 | 53.6 | 41.0 | 6 | Slider (41% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Robbie Ray | San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 46.3 | 50.8 | 43.0 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | 44.0 | 42.2 | 45.5 | 5 | Curveball (32% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Athletics | 42.3 | 41.7 | 41.5 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | 41.8 | 44.5 | 35.5 | 5 | Changeup (38% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | 38.0 | 44.6 | 28.5 | 6 | Changeup (47% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | 25.1 | 39.3 | 8.0 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.399, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs | R | 15.5% | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 82 | short | full | 8.00 | 92.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | L | 14.7% | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 65 | short | full | 35.50 | 64.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins | L | 21.9% | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 72 | short | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Kevin Gausman | Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 23.0% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.1% |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants | R | 29.5% | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 26.9% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals | R | 14.2% | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 87 | normal | full | 28.50 | 71.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 17.8% | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 99 | normal | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.7% |
| George Klassen | Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 21.6% | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 70 | short | full | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox | R | 17.4% | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 111 | deep | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Athletics | R | 20.0% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners | R | 29.8% | 4.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 67 | short | full | 77.50 | 22.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres | R | 25.6% | 6.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 111 | deep | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Robbie Ray | San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 19.7% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 25.2% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers | R | 27.7% | 6.0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox | R | 20.3% | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 82 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | R | 27.6% | 6.4 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 107 | deep | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | Braxton Ashcraft Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 20.4 | 2.9 | 16.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.85 <= 3 min |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Under | Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 15.1 | -2.4 | 13.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.0 | 72 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.43 <= 3 min |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins | 18.5 | 20.5 | 1.9 | 10.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min |
| Framber Valdez | Framber Valdez Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | 18.5 | 16.6 | -1.9 | 10.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -1.86 <= 3 min |
| Parker Messick | Parker Messick Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 10.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Logan Gilbert | Logan Gilbert Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Over | Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 8.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cade Cavalli | Cade Cavalli Over | Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 18.8 | 1.3 | 7.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Zebby Matthews | Zebby Matthews Under | Minnesota Twins @ Athletics | 17.5 | 16.4 | -1.1 | 6.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Chase Burns | Chase Burns Over | Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 18.1 | 0.7 | 3.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Under | Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.3 | 2.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.4 | 67 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Best Signals | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -153 | K Prop | Logan Gilbert Over | PHI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -153 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -140 | best price | 20.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | Best Signal |
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Add Signal Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Over | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 6.1 | -162 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price | 36.5% | ✓✓✓!–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Kumar Rocker Over | RAN@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -112 | DK Over 4.5 -112 | exact | 26.8% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | RED@GIA | 9:45 PM | 6.5 | 8.0 | -120 | DK Over 6.5 -120 | exact | 23.3% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Braxton Ashcraft Under | PIR@PAD | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -142 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 21.8% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Merrill Kelly Over | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 3.6 | -126 | DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact | 44.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@PAD | 9:40 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -167 | DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@PAD | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | +124 | BetOnline Over 5.5 +128 | best price | 20.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@MAR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -155 | DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact | 14.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Over | ROC@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -162 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | best price | 14.6% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Framber Valdez Under | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -151 | DK Under 4.5 -151 | exact | 11.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Under | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -162 | DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact | 11.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Under | TWI@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -124 | DK Under 4.5 -124 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Merrill Kelly Over | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | -158 | theScore Bet Over 3.5 -150 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs Over | TWI@ATH | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | +100 | DK Over 3.5 +100 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | George Klassen Over | GUA@ANG | 9:39 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +131 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +142 | best price | 5.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Parker Messick Under | GUA@ANG | 9:39 PM | 7.5 | 7.4 | -157 | DK Under 7.5 -157 | exact | 0.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.85 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@PAD | 9:40 PM | 17.5 | 20.4 | -162 | DK Over 17.5 -162 | exact | 16.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.43 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@MAR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 15.1 | +111 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 | best price | 13.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Over | SOX@MAR | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 20.5 | +114 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap -1.86 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Framber Valdez Under | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 16.6 | -173 | Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -165 | best price | 10.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Parker Messick Over | GUA@ANG | 9:39 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -164 | DK Over 17.5 -164 | exact | 10.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Gilbert Over | PHI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -216 | DK Over 17.5 -216 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Drew Rasmussen Over | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -144 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price | 8.5% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cade Cavalli Over | ROC@NAT | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 18.8 | -209 | DK Over 17.5 -209 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zebby Matthews Under | TWI@ATH | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.4 | -125 | DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact | 6.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Chase Burns Over | RED@GIA | 9:45 PM | 17.5 | 18.1 | -110 | DK Over 17.5 -110 | exact | 3.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zack Wheeler Under | PHI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | +132 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price | 2.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Merrill Kelly Over | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -105 | DK Over 5.5 -105 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Under | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -140 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -140 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Under | SOX@MAR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | +103 | DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jeffrey Springs Over | TWI@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -117 | DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Framber Valdez Under | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -150 | DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact | 1.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zebby Matthews Under | TWI@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +111 | DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Ranger Suarez Over | SOX@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -169 | DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Rasmussen Over | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Jeffrey Springs Under | TWI@ATH | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -153 | DK Under 3.5 -153 | exact | 17.1% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | George Klassen Under | GUA@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -141 | DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Framber Valdez Over | RAY@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -124 | DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -135 | DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Parker Messick Over | GUA@ANG | 9:39 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -174 | DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Sandy Alcantara Under | SOX@MAR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -126 | DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Robbie Ray Under | PIR@PAD | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -139 | DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kevin Gausman Under | CUB@DIA | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -161 | DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | SOX@MAR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -124 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -117 | best price | 16.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | ROC@NAT | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 7.2 | +104 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -174 | alt rescue | 10.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robbie Ray Over | PIR@PAD | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -111 | DK Over 5.5 -111 | exact | 9.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zack Wheeler Under | PHI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 7.5 | 6.9 | -153 | BetOnline Under 7.5 -152 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context