MLB Bets 2026-08-21

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	498W–291L–0P	63%	-81.01 u	Last 14 days • 789 settled
Grade A	16W–19L–0P	46%	-7.49 u
Grade B	481W–267L–0P	64%	-69.80 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3700W–2324L–8P	61%	-270.22 u	All-time • 6032 settled
Grade A	265W–211L–0P	56%	-12.89 u
Grade B	3433W–2104L–8P	62%	-250.88 u

90 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	K Prop	J.T. Ginn	4.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	K Prop	JT Ginn	4.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Hayden Wesneski	1.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob Misiorowski	1.5	-181	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	2.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Earned Run	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Reid Detmers	2.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Gusto	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Troy Melton	2.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Earned Run	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Hits Allow	J.T. Ginn	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Hits Allow	JT Ginn	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-21	Pitcher Hits Allow	Joey Cantillo	5.5	-139	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-20	K Prop	Gage Jump	4.5	-155	-	LOSS	-1.000	Gage Jump: 3.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	579	55%	-25.77u	51	51%	-6.35u	276	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	507	57%	+5.18u	39	54%	-3.26u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	12	67%	+1.86u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	379	73%	-22.90u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	613	57%	-25.46u	82	59%	-1.94u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	420	60%	-11.21u	24	58%	-1.53u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	2	100%	+0.81u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	128	48%	-14.91u	12	50%	-2.04u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	4	25%	-2.13u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	10	10%	-8.20u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	33	48%	-5.49u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 579, 14d N 51	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 507, 14d N 39	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 12	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 27 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 27/27 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 22 total candidate(s); season N 128, 14d N 12	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 4	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 33	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 814 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 226 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 790 pitcher(s), 3489 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 592 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 27 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 27 SP matchup(s), 1199 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Cleveland Guardians, St. Louis Cardinals, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, Athletics, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 24 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 348 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 31 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 3 line(s)/2 game(s); Earned Runs 26 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 111, bovada_direct 9, betmgm 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 364 market side(s) checked \| 364 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 637 \| batter bats 403 \| batter hand splits 139 \| pitcher HR splits 54 \| batter pitch-type 592 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow blocked: 123 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_ARTIFACT_MISSING

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers	4:11 PM	+124	-134	1.5 (-207)	-1.5 (+170)	O/U 6.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+191	-206	1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+217	-235	1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (+100)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+163	-176	1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins	7:11 PM	+139	-149	1.5 (-164)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles	7:16 PM	+116	-124	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+131	-141	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+168	-181	1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals	8:11 PM	-113	+105	-1.5 (+139)	1.5 (-168)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	8:16 PM	+123	-149	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-162	+134	-1.5 (-102)	1.5 (-118)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+124	-150	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+123	-149	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	-108	-112	-1.5 (+159)	1.5 (-194)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+198	-245	1.5 (-112)	-1.5 (-108)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 14 Grade B | 78 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (5 play(s))

K Prop - Sean Burke Under

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.67

K Prop - Jesus Luzardo Over

Projection: 7.6Displayed: Over 7.5 +109Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 7Recommended: BetRivers Over 6.5 -150 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 7

Pitcher Outs - JT Ginn Under

Selected line 17.5 is split from majority 16.5 / avg 17

Pitcher Outs - Matthew Boyd Over

Projection: 17.8Displayed: Over 17.5 -152Market line: majority 16.5 | avg 17Recommended: FanDuel Over 16.5 -154 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Selected line 17.5 is split from majority 16.5 / avg 17

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Logan Webb Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 6

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (14 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — J.T. Ginn Over 4.5 (-125) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 30.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
J.T. Ginn: K/9 8.4, proj 5.9K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 26.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .289 | OPS .820
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.2%, L7 25.3%, season 21.5%, active roster 18.9%/7 hitters, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.56
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — JT Ginn Over 4.5 (-125) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-127	-102	-
DK	4.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 23.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
JT Ginn: K/9 8.4, proj 5.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.9%, L7 14.8%, season 22.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.56
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — J.T. Ginn Under 5.5 (-150) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .289 | OPS .820
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 20.2%, L7 25.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Joey Cantillo Under 5.5 (-139) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.01 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 10.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .343
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.3%, L7 23.6%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — JT Ginn Under 5.5 (-149) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.9%, L7 14.8%, season 22.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 9 play(s) (B 9)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (-161) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 80.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.53 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 4.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .750 | OPS 2.250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.9%, L7 14.8%, season 22.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/4 (100%) | L10 4/4 (100%) | L20 4/4 (100%) | Season 4/4 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.25 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/4 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-161) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-152) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 4.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 90 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .621
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 22.6%, L7 22.8%, season 25.1%, BVP 27.8%/90 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Over 1.5 (-135) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.20 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 2.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 79 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 17.7% | AVG .234 | OPS .820
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.6%, L7 24.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 20.2%/79 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Gusto Over 1.5 (-144) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.34 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 4.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .267 | OPS .561
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 21.5%, L7 27.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-146) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.76 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.88, ERA 1.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 26 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .273 | OPS .976
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.0%, L7 19.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 19.2%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 13/14 (93%) | Season 13/14 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 10/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-163) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.19 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.51, ERA 3.24)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 120 PA | K% 35.8% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .196 | OPS .704
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 23.2%, L7 25.8%, season 23.0%, BVP 35.8%/120 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Under 2.5 (-129) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.82 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 3.94)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .343
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.3%, L7 23.6%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-181) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.70 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.04, ERA 1.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.8% / under 60.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .210 | OPS .496
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.0%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (-120) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.77 over 6.3 IP (xFIP 3.40, ERA 2.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .450
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (78 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 27 play(s) (B 4 | C 23)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 5.5 (-106) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-145	-
BetOnline	5.5	+104	-135	-
BetRivers	5.5	-110	-121	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-106	-120	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 31.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.70K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.5% / under 51.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.2, proj 7.2K over 6.3 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 7.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Slider: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 27 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .174 | OPS .601
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.9%, L7 20.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 33.3%/27 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 26.0% vs season 21.7%, proj adj +2.1%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chris Sale Over 7.5 (-108) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	7.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	7.5	-113	-118	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-115	-
DK	7.5	-108	-118	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	-111	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.8K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 30.2% vs 17% min; cushion +2.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Chris Sale: K/9 11.6, proj 9.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.2% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 95 PA | K% 36.8% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .602
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 95 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.7%, L7 23.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 36.8%/95 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 7.27
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 7.5
K% trend: support +6.8 ppts (recent 37.7% vs season 30.9%, proj adj +3.4%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 (-136) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+110	-
BetOnline	4.5	-147	+113	-
DK	4.5	-136	+106	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.3% / under 45.7%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Matthew Boyd: K/9 6.3, proj 4.9K over 5.9 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 44 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .661
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 19.3%, L7 25.9%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.0%/44 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.8 ppts (recent 12.4% vs season 19.2%, proj adj -3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sean Burke Under 6.5 (-142) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.67 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+130	-180	-
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-152	+116	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	6.5	+112	-142	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+122	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 2.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.6% / under 55.4%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Sean Burke: K/9 10.4, proj 6.4K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.3%, season 22.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.16
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 30.1% vs season 27.0%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 6.5 (+106) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	6.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	6.5	+100	-132	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-130	-
DK	6.5	+106	-135	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 26.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.75K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Reid Detmers: K/9 11.0, proj 8.2K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.0% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 27.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 120 PA | K% 35.8% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .196 | OPS .704
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 120 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 23.2%, L7 25.8%, season 23.0%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 35.8%/120 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 25.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.68
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5
K% trend: support +6.4 ppts (recent 35.2% vs season 28.8%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 4.5 (-115) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	-111	-116	-
BetRivers	4.5	-107	-125	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.84K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Troy Melton: K/9 7.6, proj 5.3K over 5.9 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 26.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 26 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .273 | OPS .976
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.0%, L7 19.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 19.2%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.21
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 9.5 (+101) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 8.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 9.5 +101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 9.07 | selected line 9.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 9.5 at 4 books | 8.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 8.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8.5	-155	+115	-
BetRivers	8.5	-150	+112	Recommended
theScore Bet	8.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	9.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	9.5	+110	-145	-
DK	9.5	+101	-128	Selected
FanDuel	9.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 10.6K vs line 9.5; DIFF% 11.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.0% / under 53.0%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 13.7, proj 10.6K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 38.2% | put-away% 32.2% | xwOBA 0.216 | top pitch: Curveball (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .210 | OPS .496
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.0%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.1%/7 hitters, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 26.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 9.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.40 | Season Avg 9.13
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 9.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 9.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 9.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 (-132) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-122	-106	-
BetRivers	5.5	-130	-103	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-132	+103	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-115	-111	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Joey Cantillo: K/9 10.9, proj 6.1K over 4.6 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.9% | put-away% 21.7% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 15 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .143 | OPS .343
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.3%, L7 23.6%, season 22.7%, BVP 20.0%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 31.0% vs season 25.6%, proj adj +2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Emerson Hancock Over 4.5 (-155) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 4.67 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-155	+122	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	Recommended
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-185	-
BetOnline	5.5	+132	-172	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.53K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.4% / under 42.6%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Emerson Hancock: K/9 8.2, proj 5.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 51 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .292 | OPS .960
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 21.3%, L7 23.7%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.2%/7 hitters, BVP 19.6%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.17
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Gordon Under 3.5 (-156) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 3.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 3.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 3.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+280	-525	-
BetOnline	3.5	+120	-156	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	+135	-180	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+120	-160	-
DK	3.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+124	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Tanner Gordon: K/9 7.5, proj 3.1K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 19.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.91x)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .462 | OPS 1.115
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.0%, L7 17.9%, season 21.7%, active roster 18.2%/7 hitters (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.65
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 97 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.91) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Webb Over 4.5 (-119) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-115	-112	-
BetRivers	4.5	-136	+102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Logan Webb: K/9 7.1, proj 5.0K over 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.5% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .343 | OPS .966
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 (-109) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -109

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	-109	-119	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Trevor Rogers: K/9 8.4, proj 4.1K over 5.7 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 23.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 77 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .324 | OPS .857
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 17.0%, L7 16.8%, season 18.7%, active roster 15.8%/6 hitters, BVP 14.3%/77 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 16.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 16.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 25.8% vs season 20.4%, proj adj +2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 (-103) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-120	-120	-
BetRivers	6.5	-110	-121	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-103	-124	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.57K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cam Schlittler: K/9 12.2, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.8% | put-away% 24.5% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 112 PA | K% 23.2% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .258 | OPS .646
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 112 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.6%, L7 19.8%, season 19.6%, BVP 23.2%/112 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.00 | Season Avg 7.27
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
K% trend: support +7.5 ppts (recent 38.9% vs season 31.4%, proj adj +3.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Gusto Under 4.5 (-139) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 3.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-175	+120	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	4.5	+112	-148	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+109	-139	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-148	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Ryan Gusto: K/9 8.5, proj 4.1K over 4.4 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Cutter (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Cutter: 22.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .267 | OPS .561
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 21.5%, L7 27.3%, season 21.8%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.06
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 7.5 (-149) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 7.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -149

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 7.21 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 7.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 6.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	6.5	-148	+116	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	6.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	7.5	+105	-155	-
BetOnline	7.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	7.5	+108	-143	Recommended
Bovada Direct	7.5	+115	-150	-
DK	7.5	+117	-149	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.9K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.60K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.5% / under 56.5%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 8.2, proj 6.9K over 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .450
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.18
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 7.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-118) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	5.5	-103	-130	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-108	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Sonny Gray: K/9 7.9, proj 5.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Sweeper: 24.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 79 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 17.7% | AVG .234 | OPS .820
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.6%, L7 24.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 20.2%/79 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.09
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.11 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Boyd Over 4.5 (-145) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 6.3, proj 4.8K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.5%, L7 23.7%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.2%/7 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 4.53
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.8 ppts (recent 12.4% vs season 19.2%, proj adj -3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (-146) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-139	+107	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-146	+114	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-132	+104	Recommended
BetMGM	6.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sean Manaea: K/9 9.2, proj 5.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 60 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .204 | OPS .637
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.6%, L7 22.1%, season 23.9%, active roster 26.0%/6 hitters, BVP 16.7%/60 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; L7 team K% 22.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/26 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 4.35
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 (-123) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-123	-105	-
BetRivers	6.5	-125	-106	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-120	-110	-
DK	6.5	-123	-103	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-120	-106	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.0K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 7.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.1% / under 47.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 10.0, proj 7.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 21.4% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 90 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .621
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 90 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 22.6%, L7 22.8%, season 25.1%, BVP 27.8%/90 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.92
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-130) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+107	-139	-
BetRivers	5.5	+107	-141	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 6.5, proj 5.2K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.6% | put-away% 15.6% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 36.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .241 | OPS .680
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 25.2%, L7 30.7%, season 25.5%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/25 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.24
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 124 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 5.5 (+119) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -145 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -145 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-145	+100	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 7.8, proj 5.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/4 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.7 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.8% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Sweeper (45% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .750 | OPS 2.250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.9%, L7 14.8%, season 22.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/4 (25%) | L10 1/4 (25%) | L20 1/4 (25%) | Season 1/4 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 1/4 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Connor Prielipp Under 5.5 (-143) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	5.5	+123	-165	-
DK	5.5	+112	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Connor Prielipp: K/9 9.9, proj 5.3K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.2% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.1%, L7 21.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 (-145) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+109	-141	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Freddy Peralta: K/9 8.3, proj 5.4K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 35.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 66 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .182 | OPS .609
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 66 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 23.1%, L7 25.8%, season 24.4%, BVP 25.8%/66 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 (+109) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-145	-
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	4.5	+112	-150	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bubba Chandler: K/9 8.0, proj 4.6K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 32.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .417 | OPS 1.333
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.1%, season 20.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 (+109) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 7.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	6.5	-150	+112	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
DK	7.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 11.1, proj 7.6K over 6.3 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.1% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.264 | top pitch: Sweeper (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .558
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 16.9%, L7 20.9%, season 20.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.80 | Season Avg 7.40
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +1.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesús Luzardo Over 7.5 (+110) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.6K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.6% / under 55.4%)
Jesús Luzardo: K/9 11.1, proj 7.6K over 6.3 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.1% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.264 | top pitch: Sweeper (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .558
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 16.9%, L7 20.9%, season 20.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.80 | Season Avg 7.40
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +1.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Lodolo Over 3.5 (-145) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-139	+107	-
BetRivers	3.5	-134	+102	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
DK	3.5	-145	+113	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-102	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.8% / under 44.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.1, proj 3.5K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.369 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Curveball: 22.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 49 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .204 | OPS .629
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 16.5%, L7 19.7%, season 19.3%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.07
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 22 play(s) (C 22)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 (+110) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+110	-150	-
DK	18.5	+110	-147	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+116	-158	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.801 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 17.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.40 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.6 | pitch-count proxy 114
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 16 PA | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .450
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.2%, season 24.1%, BVP 31.2%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.5%, L7 8.0%, season 9.2%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 20.40 | Season Avg 19.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 18.5 (+130) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	18.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 21.186999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.94 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 116)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 116
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .558
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.9%, L7 20.9%, season 20.4%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 11.3%, L7 10.5%, season 8.7%, BVP 0.0%/22 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.40 | Season Avg 18.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesús Luzardo Over 18.5 (+135) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +135

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 21.186999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.94 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.1% / under 59.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 116)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 116
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .558
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.9%, L7 20.9%, season 20.4%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 11.3%, L7 10.5%, season 8.7%, BVP 0.0%/22 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.3%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.40 | Season Avg 18.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 18.5 (+131) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+131	-174	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+124	-168	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.988 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 13.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +1.1 IP (xFIP 2.04 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +1.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .210 | OPS .496
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.0%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.0%, L7 4.9%, season 7.7%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/23 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 18.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.49 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.49 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Over 18.5 (+113) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+113	-150	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+110	-152	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.666999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .343 | OPS .966
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 7.3%, L7 9.6%, season 8.4%, BVP 5.3%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 18.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Hayden Wesneski Under 17.5 (-133) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 16.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	16.5	-120	-120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
DK	17.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.503 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 40%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/4 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.25 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 17.17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .750 | OPS 2.250
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.9%, L7 14.8%, season 22.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.5%, split 14.2%, L7 10.6%, season 8.7% (adj 1.18x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/4 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-201) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -201

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 17.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-200	+150	-
DK	17.5	-201	+150	Selected
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.147 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.84 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.5% / under 37.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 112 PA | K% 23.2% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .258 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.6%, L7 19.8%, season 19.6%, BVP 23.2%/112 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.6%, L7 7.8%, season 7.4%, BVP 9.8%/112 PA (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.10 | Season Avg 17.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 (+133) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +133

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-178	+133	Selected
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.928 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.24 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 77 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .324 | OPS .857
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 17.0%, L7 16.8%, season 18.7%, BVP 14.3%/77 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 9.2%, L7 7.1%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.5%/77 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 16.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 18.5 (+146) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+150	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+146	-195	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+146	-198	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.143 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.78 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 38.1% / under 61.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 95 PA | K% 36.8% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.7%, L7 23.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 36.8%/95 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 12.2%, L7 10.5%, season 10.8%, BVP 6.3%/95 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/22 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-138) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-140	+106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.979 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.3 IP (recent 7.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.98 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 124)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.3 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 124
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 27 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .174 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.9%, L7 20.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 33.3%/27 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 11.2%, L7 8.4%, season 9.3%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 7.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — JT Ginn Under 17.5 (-133) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 16.5 at 1 book | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 16.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	16.5	-130	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.103 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.9%, L7 14.8%, season 22.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.5%, split 14.2%, L7 10.6%, season 8.7% (adj 1.18x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 15.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — J.T. Ginn Under 17.5 (-140) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.47 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 43 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .289 | OPS .820
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 20.2%, L7 25.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 23.3%/43 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 10.0%, L7 6.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 7.0%/43 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 15.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Emerson Hancock Under 17.5 (+105) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +108 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-140	+105	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-146	+108	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.553000000000004 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.83 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 51 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .292 | OPS .960
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.3%, L7 23.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.6%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 11.3%, L7 10.0%, season 10.8%, BVP 3.9%/51 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.70 | Season Avg 16.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 (+116) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 17.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
DK	17.5	-154	+116	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+116	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.637999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 90 PA | K% 27.8% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .621
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 22.6%, L7 22.8%, season 25.1%, BVP 27.8%/90 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 12.3%, L7 6.8%, season 8.4%, BVP 10.0%/90 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 16.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matt Boyd Under 17.5 (+115) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.653000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.38 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.5%, L7 23.7%, season 21.8% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 10.7%, L7 10.0%, season 10.8% (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 18.5 (+107) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+105	-145	-
DK	18.5	+107	-143	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+110	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 19.345 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.61 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 79 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 17.7% | AVG .234 | OPS .820
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.6%, L7 24.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 20.2%/79 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 6.5%, L7 8.2%, season 7.1%, BVP 17.7%/79 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/23 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 (-131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-132	-102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 18.205000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .241 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 25.2%, L7 30.7%, season 25.5%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.9%, L7 8.2%, season 9.6%, BVP 10.4%/67 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Over 17.5 (-123) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.151 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 120 PA | K% 35.8% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .196 | OPS .704
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 23.2%, L7 25.8%, season 23.0%, BVP 35.8%/120 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.5%, L7 8.1%, season 8.6%, BVP 8.3%/120 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 17.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-114) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
DK	17.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.042 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.88 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 26 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .273 | OPS .976
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 23.0%, L7 19.4%, season 21.0%, BVP 19.2%/26 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 9.5%, L7 9.9%, season 8.3%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 18.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Manaea Over 17.5 (-121) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
DK	17.5	-121	-109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-118	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.976 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.11 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 60 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .204 | OPS .637
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 24.6%, L7 22.1%, season 23.9%, BVP 16.7%/60 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 11.6%, L7 11.2%, season 9.1%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/26 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 12.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +4.19 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matthew Boyd Over 17.5 (-152) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 16.5 -154 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 16.5 at 1 book | 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 16.5 -154 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 17.5 -152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	16.5	-154	+114	Recommended
DK	17.5	-152	+114	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.846999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.38 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 109)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 109
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 44 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 19.3%, L7 25.9%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.0%/44 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.7%, split 9.5%, L7 11.0%, season 8.9%, BVP 9.1%/44 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Burke Under 17.5 (-104) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
DK	17.5	-128	-104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.205000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.73 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 9 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS 1.069
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.1%, L7 24.3%, season 22.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 6.5%, L7 9.9%, season 8.6% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 16.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-119) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-111	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.68 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.00, BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 7.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 27 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .174 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.9%, L7 20.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 33.3%/27 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (+112) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -145 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 6 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -145 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 5.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	-
DK	5.5	-149	+112	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-145	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 6.1 IP (WHIP 1.01, BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 6 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .343 | OPS .966
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-161) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+121	-161	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.21, BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .241 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 25.2%, L7 30.7%, season 25.5%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Gordon Under 5.5 (+110) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 6.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 6.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-146	+110	Selected
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.11 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 4.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 5.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.11x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .462 | OPS 1.115
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 16.0%, L7 17.9%, season 21.7% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (-143) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-165	-
DK	5.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 44 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 19.3%, L7 25.9%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.0%/44 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/15 (60%) | Season 9/15 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-150) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 79 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 17.7% | AVG .234 | OPS .820
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 20.6%, L7 24.3%, season 21.2%, BVP 20.2%/79 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matt Boyd Over 5.5 (+105) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.5%, L7 23.7%, season 21.8% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Emerson Hancock Over 5.5 (+120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+100	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+120	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 51 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .292 | OPS .960
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.3%, L7 23.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.6%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/23 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 4.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-120) Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 77 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .324 | OPS .857
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 17.0%, L7 16.8%, season 18.7%, BVP 14.3%/77 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-158) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.296735700062399 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .210 | OPS .496
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.0%, L7 26.3%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.0%, L7 4.9%, season 7.7%, BVP 9.5%/21 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (-178) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3140826049484122 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.6 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.1% / under 59.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 112 PA | K% 23.2% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .258 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.6%, L7 19.8%, season 19.6%, BVP 23.2%/112 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.6%, L7 7.8%, season 7.4%, BVP 9.8%/112 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chris Sale Under 1.5 (-102) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4631937203219096 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.8 IP (BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 95 PA | K% 36.8% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.7%, L7 23.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 36.8%/95 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 12.2%, L7 10.5%, season 10.8%, BVP 6.3%/95 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 17 play(s) (C 17)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-171) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.67 over 6.1 IP (xFIP 2.94, ERA 3.02)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.1% / under 40.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .558
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.9%, L7 20.9%, season 20.4%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-116) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.32 over 6.1 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 3.06)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 38 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .343 | OPS .966
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.4%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 18.4%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Over 2.5 (-103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.10 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 4.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 77 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .324 | OPS .857
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 17.0%, L7 16.8%, season 18.7%, BVP 14.3%/77 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Lodolo Over 2.5 (+108) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.83 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.66, ERA 3.80)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 49 PA | K% 20.4% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .204 | OPS .629
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 16.5%, L7 19.7%, season 19.3%, BVP 20.4%/49 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Over 2.5 (+102) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.46 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 3.98)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 44 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 19.3%, L7 25.9%, season 23.1%, BVP 25.0%/44 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Emerson Hancock Under 2.5 (-132) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.66 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.83, ERA 3.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 51 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .292 | OPS .960
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.3%, L7 23.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.6%/51 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Under 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.68 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 3.13)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 7.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 27 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .174 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 25.9%, L7 20.7%, season 22.5%, BVP 33.3%/27 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Gordon Under 2.5 (+120) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.68 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .462 | OPS 1.115
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 16.0%, L7 17.9%, season 21.7% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Vasquez Over 2.5 (+131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.96 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.91, ERA 3.78)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, L7 21.2%, season 21.3% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Over 2.5 (-115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.79, ERA 3.59)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.9% / under 50.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .417 | OPS 1.333
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 20.2%, L7 21.1%, season 20.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Sale Under 1.5 (+104) Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.33 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.78, ERA 2.12)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Chris Sale: 95 PA | K% 36.8% | BB% 6.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.7%, L7 23.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 36.8%/95 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (-114) Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.36 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 2.84, ERA 2.20)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 112 PA | K% 23.2% | BB% 9.8% | AVG .258 | OPS .646
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.6%, L7 19.8%, season 19.6%, BVP 23.2%/112 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/26 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brad Lord Under 1.5 (-149) Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.45 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 5.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (HIGH; season 1.9 IP/GS; recent 1.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.0 IP; outs market 9.5 outs/3.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Brad Lord: 22 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .210 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.4%, L7 24.7%, season 21.7%, BVP 22.7%/22 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 24/30 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-126) Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.04 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 6.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 66 PA | K% 25.8% | BB% 12.1% | AVG .182 | OPS .609
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 23.1%, L7 25.8%, season 24.4%, BVP 25.8%/66 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 2.5 (-102) Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.11 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 22.9%, L7 14.8%, season 22.4% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-127) Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.00 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 2.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 67 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .241 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 25.2%, L7 30.7%, season 25.5%, BVP 19.4%/67 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Connor Prielipp Under 2.5 (-156) Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.64 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 5.71)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 21.1%, L7 21.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

27 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves	90.2	92.3	99.5	5	Curveball (43% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 38.2%, put-away 32.2%, xwOBA 0.216, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	71.7	72.3	75.5	4	Sweeper (49% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 32.1%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	67.4	65.7	74.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers	65.7	65.0	71.5	4	Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	63.3	64.6	66.0	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	61.2	55.5	71.5	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	60.4	55.6	71.0	6	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies	59.6	65.1	55.5	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets	56.4	56.0	60.5	6	Slider (34% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	55.8	58.3	55.5	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Athletics	54.3	62.1	45.0	5	Sweeper (45% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Houston Astros	54.1	58.7	53.5	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	52.9	53.7	51.5	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants	52.6	48.3	60.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs	51.6	50.6	53.5	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	50.9	53.7	50.0	6	Slider (36% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox	50.2	43.1	60.0	5	Changeup (28% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres	49.6	50.4	48.5	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays	49.6	46.0	53.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers	48.8	45.8	52.0	6	Slider (27% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	47.5	46.3	49.0	7	Cutter (26% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox	46.8	48.8	44.0	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians	44.8	47.6	39.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 43% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	43.6	39.7	47.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (25% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners	41.9	44.9	37.0	5	Slider (40% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds	40.1	40.4	41.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks	35.1	43.0	23.0	4	Curveball (39% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.369, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

27 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds	L	17.5%	6.4	6.0	6.1	107	deep	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Houston Astros	R	21.9%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	33.3%	6.2	5.9	6.0	104	deep	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	22.3%	5.8	5.5	5.5	97	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.6%	6.2	5.8	5.8	104	deep	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners	L	16.8%	6.5	5.7	5.8	109	deep	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets	R	28.1%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	18.4%	5.0	5.1	5.1	84	short	full	23.00	77.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies	L	27.5%	3.8	4.8	4.6	64	short	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians	R	19.4%	4.1	4.6	5.0	69	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals	R	21.3%	5.8	6.0	6.0	97	normal	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Athletics	R	20.6%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	L	23.2%	7.4	5.7	6.0	124	deep	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	L	31.1%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	23.9%	6.8	6.6	6.6	114	deep	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	R	21.6%	4.5	4.0	4.1	76	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves	R	40.2%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	99.50	0.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres	L	25.3%	5.1	5.2	5.2	86	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox	L	24.0%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	34.0%	5.7	5.8	6.0	96	normal	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	30.0%	6.9	6.0	6.2	116	deep	full	75.50	24.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	20.8%	5.3	5.0	5.1	89	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox	R	19.9%	6.4	6.3	6.3	107	deep	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs	R	21.9%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	R	20.2%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	25.9%	5.7	5.4	5.4	96	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	R	21.4%	1.7	1.9	4.0	28	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

22/22 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	21.8	3.3	17.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.6	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) \| books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.2	2.7	14.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	116	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min
Jesús Luzardo	Jesús Luzardo Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.2	2.7	14.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	116	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers	18.5	21.0	2.5	13.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.49 <= 3 min
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox	18.5	20.7	2.2	11.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min
Hayden Wesneski	Hayden Wesneski Under	Athletics @ Houston Astros	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	124	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
JT Ginn	JT Ginn Under	Athletics @ Houston Astros	17.5	16.1	-1.4	8.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
J.T. Ginn	J.T. Ginn Under	Athletics @ Houston Astros	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Emerson Hancock	Emerson Hancock Under	Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	16.6	-0.9	5.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
MacKenzie Gore	MacKenzie Gore Under	Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	17.5	16.6	-0.9	4.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matt Boyd	Matt Boyd Under	Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	16.7	-0.8	4.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox	18.5	19.3	0.8	4.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	18.2	0.7	4.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	17.5	18.2	0.7	3.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	18.0	0.5	3.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Manaea	Sean Manaea Over	New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	18.0	0.5	2.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matthew Boyd	Matthew Boyd Over	Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.8	0.3	2.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Under	New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes