| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 579 | 55% | -25.77u | 51 | 51% | -6.35u | 276 | 56% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 507 | 57% | +5.18u | 39 | 54% | -3.26u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 173 | 58% | +7.01u | 12 | 67% | +1.86u | 46 | 61% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 2084 | 74% | -55.49u | 379 | 73% | -22.90u | 8 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 613 | 57% | -25.46u | 82 | 59% | -1.94u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 420 | 60% | -11.21u | 24 | 58% | -1.53u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 55 | 71% | -0.17u | 2 | 100% | +0.81u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 35 | 51% | -1.50u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 30 | 44% | +2.54u | 2 | 0% | -2.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 11 | 27% | -5.27u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 5 | 20% | -2.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 4 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 4 | 50% | -2.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 7 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 128 | 48% | -14.91u | 12 | 50% | -2.04u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 62 | 39% | -13.07u | 4 | 25% | -2.13u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 38 | 42% | -10.07u | 10 | 10% | -8.20u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 609 | 52% | -60.11u | 33 | 48% | -5.49u | 86 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52% |
| No HR | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | 90.2 | 92.3 | 99.5 | 5 | Curveball (43% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 38.2%, put-away 32.2%, xwOBA 0.216, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals | 71.7 | 72.3 | 75.5 | 4 | Sweeper (49% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 32.1%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | 67.4 | 65.7 | 74.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | 65.7 | 65.0 | 71.5 | 4 | Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | 63.3 | 64.6 | 66.0 | 5 | Curveball (40% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | 61.2 | 55.5 | 71.5 | 6 | Changeup (38% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.4 | 55.6 | 71.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies | 59.6 | 65.1 | 55.5 | 5 | Changeup (41% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets | 56.4 | 56.0 | 60.5 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | 55.8 | 58.3 | 55.5 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hayden Wesneski | Houston Astros vs Athletics | 54.3 | 62.1 | 45.0 | 5 | Sweeper (45% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Houston Astros | 54.1 | 58.7 | 53.5 | 5 | Changeup (36% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | 52.9 | 53.7 | 51.5 | 5 | Curveball (35% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants | 52.6 | 48.3 | 60.5 | 6 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs | 51.6 | 50.6 | 53.5 | 6 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | 50.9 | 53.7 | 50.0 | 6 | Slider (36% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox | 50.2 | 43.1 | 60.0 | 5 | Changeup (28% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres | 49.6 | 50.4 | 48.5 | 5 | Curveball (40% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | 49.6 | 46.0 | 53.5 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 48.8 | 45.8 | 52.0 | 6 | Slider (27% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | 47.5 | 46.3 | 49.0 | 7 | Cutter (26% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox | 46.8 | 48.8 | 44.0 | 5 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians | 44.8 | 47.6 | 39.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 43% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brad Lord | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | 43.6 | 39.7 | 47.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (25% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners | 41.9 | 44.9 | 37.0 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | 40.1 | 40.4 | 41.0 | 5 | Changeup (26% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 35.1 | 43.0 | 23.0 | 4 | Curveball (39% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.369, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 17.5% | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 107 | deep | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Houston Astros | R | 21.9% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 94 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 33.3% | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 22.3% | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 97 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.7% |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants | R | 21.6% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 104 | deep | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners | L | 16.8% | 6.5 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 109 | deep | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs New York Mets | R | 28.1% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 18.4% | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 84 | short | full | 23.00 | 77.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3% |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies | L | 27.5% | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 64 | short | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.8 IP/start |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 19.4% | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 69 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | R | 21.3% | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Hayden Wesneski | Houston Astros vs Athletics | R | 20.6% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | L | 23.2% | 7.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 124 | deep | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | L | 31.1% | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 23.9% | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 114 | deep | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | R | 21.6% | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 76 | short | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | R | 40.2% | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 99.50 | 0.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres | L | 25.3% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox | L | 24.0% | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 34.0% | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 96 | normal | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 30.0% | 6.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 116 | deep | full | 75.50 | 24.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 20.8% | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 89 | normal | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox | R | 19.9% | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 107 | deep | full | 60.00 | 40.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs | R | 21.9% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Freddy Peralta | Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 20.2% | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 25.9% | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 96 | normal | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brad Lord | Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | R | 21.4% | 1.7 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 28 | short | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.7 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 18.5 | 21.8 | 3.3 | 17.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.6 | 114 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree |
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Over | St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 21.2 | 2.7 | 14.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 116 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min |
| Jesús Luzardo | Jesús Luzardo Over | St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 21.2 | 2.7 | 14.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 116 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Jacob Misiorowski Over | Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | 18.5 | 21.0 | 2.5 | 13.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.49 <= 3 min |
| Logan Webb | Logan Webb Over | San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | 18.5 | 20.7 | 2.2 | 11.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min |
| Hayden Wesneski | Hayden Wesneski Under | Athletics @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 15.5 | -2.0 | 11.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min |
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Trevor Rogers | Trevor Rogers Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 9.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Chris Sale | Chris Sale Over | Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers | 18.5 | 20.1 | 1.6 | 8.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Noah Cameron | Noah Cameron Over | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 8.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 124 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| JT Ginn | JT Ginn Under | Athletics @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | 8.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| J.T. Ginn | J.T. Ginn Under | Athletics @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Emerson Hancock | Emerson Hancock Under | Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 16.6 | -0.9 | 5.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| MacKenzie Gore | MacKenzie Gore Under | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 16.6 | -0.9 | 4.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Matt Boyd | Matt Boyd Under | Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Over | San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox | 18.5 | 19.3 | 0.8 | 4.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 4.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Reid Detmers | Reid Detmers Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 3.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Troy Melton | Troy Melton Over | Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 3.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sean Manaea | Sean Manaea Over | New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 2.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Matthew Boyd | Matthew Boyd Over | Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 2.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 109 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sean Burke | Sean Burke Under | New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | J.T. Ginn Over | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.9 | -125 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -125 | exact | 30.8% | ✓✓!✓–– | Add Signal |
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | JT Ginn Over | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -125 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price | 23.1% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | J.T. Ginn Under | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -150 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Joey Cantillo Under | GUA@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -139 | DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | ✅ Add Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | JT Ginn Under | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -149 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Hayden Wesneski Over | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.7 | -161 | DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact | 80.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | MacKenzie Gore Over | ANG@RAN | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -152 | DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Sonny Gray Over | GIA@SOX | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -135 | DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Gusto Over | NAT@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -144 | DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal | Pitcher Earned R | Troy Melton Under | TIG@ROY | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -146 | DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Reid Detmers Under | ANG@RAN | 8:16 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -163 | DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Joey Cantillo Under | GUA@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -129 | DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob Misiorowski Under | BRA@BRE | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -181 | DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | Add Signal |
| B | 👀 Watch Signal Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | PIR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -120 | DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––! | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Noah Cameron Over | TIG@ROY | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 7.2 | -106 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price | 30.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Chris Sale Over | BRA@BRE | 4:11 PM | 7.5 | 9.8 | -108 | DK Over 7.5 -108 | exact | 30.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Reid Detmers Over | ANG@RAN | 8:16 PM | 6.5 | 8.2 | +106 | DK Over 6.5 +106 | exact | 26.9% | ✓✓✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Troy Melton Over | TIG@ROY | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -115 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -107 | best price | 18.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 9.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRA@BRE | 4:11 PM | 9.5 | 10.6 | +101 | BetRivers Over 8.5 -150 | alt rescue | 11.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Joey Cantillo Over | GUA@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -132 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price | 11.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Emerson Hancock Over | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -155 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -148 | best price | 11.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Gordon Under | GUA@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.1 | -156 | BetOnline Under 3.5 -156 | best price | 10.4% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Webb Over | GIA@SOX | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -119 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor Rogers Under | RAY@ORI | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -109 | DK Under 4.5 -109 | exact | 10.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Over | JAY@YAN | 7:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.1 | -103 | DK Over 6.5 -103 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Gusto Under | NAT@MAR | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -139 | DK Under 4.5 -139 | exact | 8.3% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under | PIR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 7.5 | 6.9 | -149 | BetRivers Under 7.5 -143 | best price | 8.1% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Under | GIA@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -118 | DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact | 7.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matt Boyd Over | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -145 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Manaea Over | MET@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -146 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price | 7.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | ANG@RAN | 8:16 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | -123 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -120 | best price | 7.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | RED@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -130 | DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact | 6.0% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Hayden Wesneski Over | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +119 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -145 | alt rescue | 3.8% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Connor Prielipp Under | TWI@PAD | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -143 | DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact | 3.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Under | RAY@ORI | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -145 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -130 | best price | 2.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +109 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +120 | best price | 1.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | CAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 7.5 | 7.6 | +109 | BetRivers Over 6.5 -150 | alt rescue | 1.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jesús Luzardo Over | CAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 7.5 | 7.6 | +110 | Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +110 | exact | 1.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Lodolo Over | RED@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -145 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price | 0.3% | ✓✗✓!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Outs | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | PIR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 18.5 | 21.8 | +110 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 | best price | 17.8% | ✓✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesus Luzardo Over | CAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 21.2 | +130 | DK Over 18.5 +130 | exact | 14.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.69 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesús Luzardo Over | CAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 21.2 | +135 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +135 | exact | 14.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.49 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRA@BRE | 4:11 PM | 18.5 | 21.0 | +131 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +135 | best price | 13.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Webb Over | GIA@SOX | 7:11 PM | 18.5 | 20.7 | +113 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | best price | 11.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Hayden Wesneski Under | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.5 | -133 | DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact | 11.4% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | JAY@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -201 | theScore Bet Over 17.5 -190 | best price | 9.4% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Trevor Rogers Under | RAY@ORI | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 15.9 | +133 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | best price | 9.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Chris Sale Over | BRA@BRE | 4:11 PM | 18.5 | 20.1 | +146 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +150 | best price | 8.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Noah Cameron Over | TIG@ROY | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -138 | DK Over 17.5 -138 | exact | 8.5% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | JT Ginn Under | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.1 | -133 | DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | J.T. Ginn Under | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | -140 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -140 | exact | 5.9% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Emerson Hancock Under | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.6 | +105 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +108 | best price | 5.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | MacKenzie Gore Under | ANG@RAN | 8:16 PM | 17.5 | 16.6 | +116 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price | 4.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Matt Boyd Under | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | +115 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115 | exact | 4.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Over | GIA@SOX | 7:11 PM | 18.5 | 19.3 | +107 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +110 | best price | 4.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | RED@DIA | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -131 | DK Over 17.5 -131 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Reid Detmers Over | ANG@RAN | 8:16 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -123 | DK Over 17.5 -123 | exact | 3.7% | ✓✗✓––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Troy Melton Over | TIG@ROY | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.0 | -114 | DK Over 17.5 -114 | exact | 3.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sean Manaea Over | MET@SOX | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.0 | -121 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -118 | best price | 2.7% | ✓✗✓––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -152 | FanDuel Over 16.5 -154 | alt rescue | 2.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sean Burke Under | MET@SOX | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | -104 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -102 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Cameron Under | TIG@ROY | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -119 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Logan Webb Under | GIA@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | +112 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -145 | alt rescue | 12.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | RED@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -161 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Gordon Under | GUA@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | +110 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -150 | alt rescue | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Boyd Under | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -143 | DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sonny Gray Under | GIA@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -150 | DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matt Boyd Over | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +105 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Emerson Hancock Over | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +120 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor Rogers Under | RAY@ORI | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -120 | DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Jacob Misiorowski Under | BRA@BRE | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -158 | DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact | 13.6% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Walks | Cam Schlittler Under | JAY@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -178 | DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact | 12.4% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Chris Sale Under | BRA@BRE | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -102 | DK Under 1.5 -102 | exact | 2.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | Pitcher Earned R | Jesus Luzardo Over | CAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -171 | DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Webb Under | GIA@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -116 | DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor Rogers Over | RAY@ORI | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -103 | DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Lodolo Over | RED@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +108 | DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +102 | DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Emerson Hancock Under | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -132 | DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Cameron Under | TIG@ROY | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -128 | DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Gordon Under | GUA@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +120 | DK Under 2.5 +120 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Randy Vasquez Over | TWI@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +131 | DK Over 2.5 +131 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -115 | DK Over 2.5 -115 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Chris Sale Under | BRA@BRE | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +104 | DK Under 1.5 +104 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cam Schlittler Under | JAY@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -114 | DK Under 1.5 -114 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brad Lord Under | NAT@MAR | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -149 | DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Freddy Peralta Under | RAY@ORI | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -126 | DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | JT Ginn Under | ATH@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -102 | DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | RED@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -127 | DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Connor Prielipp Under | TWI@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -156 | DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@MAR | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -136 | DK Over 4.5 -136 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Burke Under | MET@SOX | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -142 | DK Under 6.5 -142 | exact | 2.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context