MLB Bets 2026-08-06

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	1004W–465L–0P	68%	-39.58 u	Last 14 days • 1469 settled
Grade A	27W–30L–0P	47%	-9.43 u
Grade B	977W–431L–0P	69%	-26.15 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3163W–2010L–8P	61%	-183.27 u	All-time • 5181 settled
Grade A	249W–190L–0P	57%	-3.40 u
Grade B	2914W–1816L–8P	62%	-175.87 u

53 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	3.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Run Line	Arizona Diamondbacks	+1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	K Prop	Brandon Young	4.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-06	K Prop	Miles Mikolas	3.5	-164	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-05	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-156	-	WIN	+0.641	Noah Cameron: 9.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-05	K Prop	Cody Bradford	3.5	-162	-	WIN	+0.617	Cody Bradford: 5.0 (line 3.5)
2026-08-05	K Prop	Sean Burke	6.5	107	-	LOSS	-1.000	Sean Burke: 4.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	517	56%	-11.70u	68	47%	-12.23u	242	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	459	58%	+9.05u	61	51%	-6.80u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	160	57%	+4.51u	21	76%	+6.77u	44	64%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1587	74%	-27.77u	956	75%	-19.61u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	512	57%	-17.75u	111	53%	-10.28u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	379	61%	-5.29u	91	65%	+5.55u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	52	71%	+0.02u	15	53%	-3.88u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	3	33%	-1.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	4	25%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	2
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	116	47%	-12.87u	8	75%	+2.24u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	26	54%	-1.69u	25	56%	-0.69u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	568	52%	-53.29u	77	60%	+3.73u	85	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	4/5	14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 16 total candidate(s); season N 517, 14d N 68	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 459, 14d N 61	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 160, 14d N 21	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 22 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 22/22 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 16 total candidate(s); season N 52, 14d N 15	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 95 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 3	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 116, 14d N 8	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 26, 14d N 25	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 568, 14d N 77	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 780 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 757 pitcher(s), 3352 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 571 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 22 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 22 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 22 roster team(s), 286 hitter(s) \| 22 SP matchup(s), 1418 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 286 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 22 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Washington Nationals, New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 22 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 22 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 334 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 9/11 game(s) with pitching props \| K 16 line(s)/9 game(s); Outs 13 line(s)/8 game(s); Hits Allowed 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Walks 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Earned Runs 0 line(s)/0 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 26, fanduel 3 \| missing: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 632 market side(s) checked \| 632 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 11 game(s) fetched \| 11 with ML odds \| 11 with total odds \| 5 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 11 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 618 \| batter bats 337 \| batter hand splits 145 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 571 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 11 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 23 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation blocked

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	12:36 PM	+139	-169	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	+138	-167	1.5 (-147)	-1.5 (+122)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	-114	-105	-1.5 (+149)	1.5 (-181)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+118	-142	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+141)	1.5 (-171)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+104	-126	1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	+279	-358	1.5 (+128)	-1.5 (-155)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+153	-187	1.5 (-135)	-1.5 (+112)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+134	-162	1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+104	-126	1.5 (-203)	-1.5 (+166)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+155)	1.5 (-189)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 1 Grade B | 139 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	ANG@ORI	12:36 PM	4.5	6.2	-157	DK Over 4.5 -157 \| exact	37.2%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (2 play(s))

K Prop - Cristopher Sanchez Over

Projection: 8.2Displayed: Over 7.5 +122Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 6.83Recommended: FanDuel Over 6.5 -142 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 6.83 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.83

Batter Hits - Pete Alonso Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Brandon Young Over 4.5 (-157) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-164	+126	-
DK	4.5	-157	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-170	+132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 37.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Young: K/9 7.7, proj 6.2K over 5.9 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Slider: 38.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.100
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 26.6%, L7 30.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.72
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (1 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Miles Mikolas Under 3.5 (-164) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+126	-164	-
DK	3.5	+128	-164	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+124	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 42.6% vs 17% min; cushion -1.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Miles Mikolas: K/9 4.1, proj 2.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 15.4% | put-away% 11.9% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Curveball (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 27.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Miles Mikolas: 222 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .268 | OPS .715
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 222 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.6%, L7 15.6%, season 23.3%, active roster 20.9%/9 hitters, BVP 13.5%/222 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 77%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 15.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.9% (9 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: K L10: 10/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (139 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 14 play(s) (B 2 | C 12)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (-102) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.7K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 42.2% vs 17% min; cushion +3.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.6, proj 10.7K over 6.5 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 35.0% | put-away% 24.7% | xwOBA 0.260 | top pitch: Changeup (54% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 35.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 120 PA | K% 35.8% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .194 | OPS .618
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 120 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.5%, L7 21.5%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 35.8%/120 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 88%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.00 | Season Avg 8.70
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 (+122) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -142 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 6.83 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -142 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 7.5 +122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-147	+113	-
FanDuel	6.5	-142	+112	Recommended
DK	7.5	+122	-156	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.5, proj 8.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 25.8% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 29.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .303 | OPS .697
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 26.5%, L7 22.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 7.30
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Mason Barnett Under 4.5 (-103) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.2% vs 17% min; cushion -1.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.2% / under 47.8%)
Mason Barnett: K/9 7.7, proj 3.5K over 3.5 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 23.5%, L7 29.7%, season 25.2% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/15 (87%) | Season 13/15 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
K% trend: headwind -8.7 ppts (recent 14.3% vs season 23.0%, proj adj -4.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (+113) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.6, proj 5.0K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 110 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .748
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 110 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/110 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Over 5.5 (-144) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.6% / Under 44.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.6% / under 44.4%)
Nolan McLean: K/9 10.6, proj 6.0K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Curveball: 25.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .571 | OPS 1.524
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 15.3%, L7 19.2%, season 22.2%, active roster 18.1%/7 hitters (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 70%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.10 | Season Avg 6.73
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bailey Ober Over 3.5 (-162) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Bailey Ober: K/9 6.8, proj 3.8K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Sweeper: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 139 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .282 | OPS .836
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 139 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 24.1%, L7 16.0%, season 21.2%, active roster 21.9%/6 hitters, BVP 18.0%/139 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 16.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.94
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Janson Junk Under 3.5 (-115) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Janson Junk: K/9 7.4, proj 3.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 16.6% | put-away% 15.4% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 45 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .311 | OPS .800
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.8%, L7 18.3%, season 21.3%, active roster 21.1%/7 hitters, BVP 20.0%/45 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 18.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.07
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Over 4.5 (-103) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
DK	4.5	-103	-124	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Johnson: K/9 7.9, proj 4.8K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 13.8% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Split-Finger (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 17 PA | K% 41.2% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .062 | OPS .180
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.3%, split 24.1%, L7 28.9%, season 24.4%, BVP 41.2%/17 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.08
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (-110) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-110	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Miller: K/9 8.1, proj 5.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.255 | top pitch: Split-Finger (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 45.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 1.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .512
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 19.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.69
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
K% trend: headwind -9.6 ppts (recent 16.5% vs season 26.1%, proj adj -4.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Martin Perez Under 4.5 (-172) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.3% / under 59.7%)
Martin Perez: K/9 6.4, proj 4.3K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 38.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .185 | OPS .678
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.9%, L7 18.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.57
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Framber Valdez Over 4.5 (-155) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-155	+121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-164	+128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.1, proj 4.7K over 5.7 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 175 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .288 | OPS .785
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 175 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.0%, L7 20.8%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.3%/175 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.45
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (+112) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-147	+113	-
DK	5.5	-143	+112	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-148	+116	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ranger Suarez: K/9 10.4, proj 5.3K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 22.9% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Curveball (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 27.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 32 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .911
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 21.5%, L7 28.2%, season 23.9%, BVP 15.6%/32 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 30.3% vs season 25.7%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 3.5 (+104) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +104

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-133	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.8% / under 46.2%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
David Peterson: K/9 7.4, proj 3.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 18.1% | xwOBA 0.343 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 24.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 49 PA | K% 16.3% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .214 | OPS .598
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 17.1%, L7 19.3%, season 19.5%, active roster 19.2%/6 hitters, BVP 16.3%/49 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.86
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Abbott Over 4.5 (-121) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.1, proj 4.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.6% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .597
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 29.5%, L7 23.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.13
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Andrew Abbott Under 17.5 (+105) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 14.909 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.4 IP (xFIP 4.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 22 PA | K% 13.6% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 29.5%, L7 23.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.9%, L7 6.5%, season 8.9%, BVP 9.1%/22 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.00 | Season Avg 15.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (-131) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 20.508 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 74 PA | K% 20.3% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .303 | OPS .697
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 26.5%, L7 22.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.3%/74 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.1%, L7 10.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 8.1%/74 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.01 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.01 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-158) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-154	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-158	+118	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 18.762 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.2% / under 42.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .571 | OPS 1.524
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 15.3%, L7 19.2%, season 22.2% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 9.3%, L7 11.5%, season 9.7% (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 17.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Over 17.5 (-118) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-122	-109	-
DK	17.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.114 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.100
Opponent K profile: composite 27.2%, split 26.6%, L7 30.3%, season 25.3% (adj 1.11x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 11.3%, L7 4.2%, season 8.4% (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryce Miller Over 17.5 (-159) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 17.964 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.63 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 1.5% | AVG .212 | OPS .512
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.3%, L7 19.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 10.7%, L7 9.9%, season 9.3%, BVP 1.5%/67 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/13 (23%) | Season 3/13 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 17.5 (+103) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +103

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.332 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 175 PA | K% 22.3% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .288 | OPS .785
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.0%, L7 20.8%, season 22.9%, BVP 22.3%/175 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 8.6%, L7 11.5%, season 8.9%, BVP 10.3%/175 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 16.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Under 18.5 (-179) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+140	-180	-
DK	18.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.497 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.26 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 110 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.4%, L7 20.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/110 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.5%, L7 6.2%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.4%/110 PA (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 18.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-273) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -273 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -273 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+200	-273	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.82 (AVG 0.247)
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.325 (115 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/35 (37%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/106 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/53 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter Hits: 40/53 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 82/106 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ryan Jeffers Under 1.5 (-256) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-215) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+160	-215	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.85 (AVG 0.227)
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.088
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/110 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 85/110 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Sal Stewart Under 1.5 (-272) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.255)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.276 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/33 (30%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/113 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/59 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 86/113 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bryce Harper Under 1.5 (-221) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -221 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -221

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -221 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+164	-221	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.252)
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.229 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 29 PA | 9/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | OPS 1.009
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/35 (26%) | L5 4/16 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/58 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter Hits: 45/57 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 92/115 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-271) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -271

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -271 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.259)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.378 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 79/108 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-246) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+182	-246	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.89 (AVG 0.219)
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.368 (28 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/36 (17%) | L5 3/14 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 48/61 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 42/52 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter Hits: 90/113 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Alonso Under 1.5 (-269) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-270	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+197	-269	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/114 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 48/61 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Hits: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 87/114 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-241) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.294 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/114 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter Hits: 82/114 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-229) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.254)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.318 (140 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/56 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 80/111 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-247) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+182	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.275)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.360 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/37 (22%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/94 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 29/43 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 68/94 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-237) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+175	-237	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.267 (128 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/41 (37%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 77/109 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-170) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 34 PA | 11/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.8% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .807
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 83/112 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 (-272) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+200	-272	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.296 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 15 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/37 (19%) | L5 5/17 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 41/53 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 83/110 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-269) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.305 (59 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | 12/28 | HR 1 | K% 10.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/96 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/50 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 68/96 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-200) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.324)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.300 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .526
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 28/51 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 65/107 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 95 play(s) (C 95)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 0.5 (-156) diff 314.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 314.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.550 (56 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 21 PA | 6/19 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .697
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/56 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.41 | Day Batter TB: 78/112 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.09

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 314% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-164) diff 226.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.557 (26 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 77/115 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.51

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-118) diff 220.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 0.5 (-175) diff 220.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-156) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Bart Over 0.5 (-156) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luisangel Acuna Over 0.5 (-112) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-130) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-169) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Franklin Over 0.5 (-149) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 0.5 (-164) diff 185.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 185.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (78 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 40/59 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 73/114 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 185.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 185.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (-118) diff 142.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 142.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+143) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 55.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-149) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.84
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.276 (64 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/107 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter TB: 55/107 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+112) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.429 (132 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 29 PA | 11/24 | HR 1 | K% 20.7% | BB% 13.8% | OPS 1.302
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+104) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.673 (29 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/94 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/94 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-115) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 37 PA | 6/34 | HR 1 | K% 24.3% | BB% 8.1% | OPS .537
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 46/109 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 46/109 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-187) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.08
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/106 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 71/106 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 1.5 (+171) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-106) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.451 (59 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 28 PA | 12/28 | HR 1 | K% 10.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.179
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/96 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/96 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-103) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.355 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 5/19 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .526
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+110) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (41 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.556
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/100 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 40/100 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-121) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.253 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 29 PA | 9/27 | HR 2 | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | OPS 1.009
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/115 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 47/115 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-105) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 46/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-117) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.421 (140 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/111 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 43/111 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-103) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.560 (28 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 41/113 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+148) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 34 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .740
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+112) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.316 (128 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+104) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.405 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 15 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-128) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.438 (36 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 34 PA | 11/33 | HR 0 | K% 8.8% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .807
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/112 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 41/112 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-174) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.357 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/103 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/50 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 72/103 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-205) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/87 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/42 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 34/45 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 65/87 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Under 1.5 (-203) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+151	-203	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.214 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/54 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 63/110 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 39 PA | 9/33 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 12.8% | OPS .748
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 39 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 39/104 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+103) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.331 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+136) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.288 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/112 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 45/112 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+144) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 24 PA | 5/20 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.025
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/52 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Under 1.5 (-175) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.263 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 28/55 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 60/112 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-152) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 69/108 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+143) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.343 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-176) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/83 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/42 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 26/41 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 52/83 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Under 1.5 (-191) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/83 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/43 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 26/40 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 52/83 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+133) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.227 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/102 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 45/102 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+103) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+123) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.436 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 35/95 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 35/95 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+116) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.311 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/111 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 42/111 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+123) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.361 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-154) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.365 (115 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/106 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 69/106 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+137) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter TB: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+113) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+131) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrés Chaparro Over 1.5 (+182) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +182

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+164) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+178) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +178

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-141) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.398 (130 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 14 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .643
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/51 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 74/106 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+126) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+158) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+171) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brenton Doyle Over 1.5 (+174) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+152) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +131; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+139) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+142) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+103) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.343 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 31/85 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 31/85 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+113) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+129) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+134) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-141) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.224 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 67/107 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+150) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-158) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/94 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 25/43 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 54/94 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+146) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.366 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/97 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/97 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-144) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.436 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 76/114 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+115) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+134) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+134) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+138) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+152) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+149) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-163) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 35 PA | 8/33 | HR 2 | K% 31.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .742
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 69/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-167) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.255 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.571 (15 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 66/110 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-167) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.297 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 23 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 8.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .447
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 68/109 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Under 1.5 (-186) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.322 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 72/110 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Under 1.5 (-194) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (83 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-130) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 19 PA | 7/18 | HR 1 | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | OPS 1.088
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 75/110 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-151) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-154) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-145) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (85 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 33 PA | 7/30 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .770
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/110 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 67/110 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-105) edge 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -105

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 7.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-105	-	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	7.5	-114	-	-
DK	7.5	-105	-	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	-122	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-110	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Dylan Cease (RHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 35% (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Dylan Cease elite xFIP (2.68)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-118) edge 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 7.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -118

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 9 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 7.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-120	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-112	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-120	-	-
DK	7.5	-118	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-120	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-118	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-111	-	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Wilber Dotel (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Dustin May (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Braxton Ashcraft elite xFIP (3.27)

▸ F5 Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-120) edge 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) | Start: 12:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-110	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Kiefer Lord (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Brandon Young xFIP 4.42
Ryan Johnson xFIP 4.80
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Brandon Young (RHP)
Away SP: Ryan Johnson (RHP)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Kohl Drake xFIP 4.42
Walker Buehler xFIP 4.28
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 98)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kohl Drake (LHP)
Away SP: Walker Buehler (RHP)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (F5) | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Martín Pérez xFIP 4.20
Janson Junk xFIP 4.30
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Martín Pérez (LHP)
Away SP: Janson Junk (RHP)

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+126) edge 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) | Start: 12:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers +128 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +126

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers +128 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Andrew Abbott xFIP 4.92
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.31
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 98)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Andrew Abbott (LHP)
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+250) edge 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +252 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +250

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +252 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Cristopher Sánchez xFIP 2.60
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.75
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP)
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-105	48.9%	67.0%	+18.1%	$+30.87	4	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-118	51.7%	68.6%	+16.9%	$+26.72	8	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +18.1%

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Dylan Cease (RHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs RHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 35% (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Dylan Cease elite xFIP (2.68)

C Over 7.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +16.9%

[INJ] Wilber Dotel (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Dustin May (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Braxton Ashcraft elite xFIP (3.27)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (F5)	12:36 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-120	51.2%	63.3%	+12.1%	$+16.09	1	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (F5)	12:40 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	FanDuel	+126	41.9%	53.0%	+11.1%	$+19.89	2	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:06 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	FanDuel	+250	27.1%	37.2%	+10.1%	$+30.13	2	Bet on DK
C	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	63.8%	+8.9%	$+9.32	1	Bet on DK
C	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (F5)	7:16 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	63.6%	+8.8%	$+9.07	1	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (5 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (F5) (F5 Total) +12.1%

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Kiefer Lord (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Camden Yards (PITCHER)
Brandon Young xFIP 4.42
Ryan Johnson xFIP 4.80
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Brandon Young (RHP)
Away SP: Ryan Johnson (RHP)

C Athletics — Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) (F5 ML) +11.1%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Andrew Abbott xFIP 4.92
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.31
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 50% (team 98)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Andrew Abbott (LHP)
Away SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +10.1%

[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Cristopher Sánchez xFIP 2.60
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.75
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP)
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) (F5 Total) +8.9%

[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Kohl Drake xFIP 4.42
Walker Buehler xFIP 4.28
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 98)
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Kohl Drake (LHP)
Away SP: Walker Buehler (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (F5) (F5 Total) +8.8%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Martín Pérez xFIP 4.20
Janson Junk xFIP 4.30
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Martín Pérez (LHP)
Away SP: Janson Junk (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles

12:36 PM · decision fi-cb6c3be8b60ce64b

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.9% / YRFI 50.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Ryan Johnson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brandon Young · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ryan Johnson / Brandon Young announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRyan Johnson / Brandon Young announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+101	-133	46.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+112	-148	44.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+106	-136	45.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED

Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds

12:40 PM · decision fi-716190244bcec48d

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.3% / YRFI 48.7%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Mason Barnett · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andrew Abbott · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.513
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Mason Barnett / Andrew Abbott announced and matched

1 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.513

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMason Barnett / Andrew Abbott announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN1 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (1 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians

1:11 PM · decision fi-67aaaaf9477db4ec

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.9% / YRFI 48.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Nolan McLean · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Foster Griffin · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.519
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Nolan McLean / Foster Griffin announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.519

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNolan McLean / Foster Griffin announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-134	+102	53.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-156	+122	57.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

2:11 PM · decision fi-7e00790dc7f1f363

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.8% / YRFI 49.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Braxton Ashcraft · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Dustin May · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Braxton Ashcraft / Dustin May announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBraxton Ashcraft / Dustin May announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-141	+106	54.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-142	+112	55.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED

Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs

2:21 PM · decision fi-1a4daaddb1eed4d9

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.3% / YRFI 49.7%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Dylan Cease · official_announced · matched

Home starter: David Peterson · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Dylan Cease / David Peterson announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDylan Cease / David Peterson announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-136	+102	53.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-142	+112	55.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners

4:11 PM · decision fi-6c506471f007000c

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.2% / YRFI 48.8%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Framber Valdez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryce Miller · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Framber Valdez / Bryce Miller announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSFramber Valdez / Bryce Miller announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-124	-108	51.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:06 PM · decision fi-857985d9b4ec3685

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.8% / YRFI 50.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Miles Mikolas · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cristopher Sánchez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Miles Mikolas / Cristopher Sánchez announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMiles Mikolas / Cristopher Sánchez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

7:11 PM · decision fi-0382b1aed2dc02b6

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.4% / YRFI 49.6%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Luis Castillo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ranger Suarez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Luis Castillo / Ranger Suarez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSLuis Castillo / Ranger Suarez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-116	-114	50.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-108	-124	48.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-36b983b47490daa3

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.8% / YRFI 50.2%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Janson Junk · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Martín Pérez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Janson Junk / Martín Pérez announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJanson Junk / Martín Pérez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals

7:41 PM · decision fi-40540f9e1465ae12

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 50.5% / YRFI 49.5%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Bailey Ober · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael Wacha · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Bailey Ober / Michael Wacha announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBailey Ober / Michael Wacha announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-103	-130	47.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:41 PM · decision fi-77d43425538802fd

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 49.9% / YRFI 50.1%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Walker Buehler · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kohl Drake · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-05 · updated 2026-08-06T04:03:57.185298Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Walker Buehler / Kohl Drake announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSWalker Buehler / Kohl Drake announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	+104	-137	45.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 0 batter line(s)
Market discovery: no extra HR markets returned
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

No batter HR chances clear the watchlist tier.

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	100	89.6%	-865	-	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	89.0%	-806	-	Chase Field HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	12:36 PM	100	88.7%	-784	-	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	100	88.4%	-761	-	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.6%	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	93	86.0%	-612	-	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	93	85.4%	-587	-	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	92	84.7%	-552	-	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	92	84.5%	-544	-	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	91	83.7%	-515	-	American Family Field HR factor 1.08	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	90	83.0%	-490	-	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	90	82.8%	-480	-	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Ranger Suarez	Luis Castillo	0.95	17.2%	47.5%	-	+0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	David Peterson	Dylan Cease	1.05	17.0%	47.0%	-	+0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Dustin May	Braxton Ashcraft	1.08	16.3%	45.8%	-	+0.0%
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	Bryce Miller	Framber Valdez	0.92	15.5%	44.4%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	1:11 PM	Foster Griffin	Nolan McLean	0.95	15.3%	44.1%	-	+0.0%
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Martín Pérez	Janson Junk	1.03	14.6%	42.6%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	Michael Wacha	Bailey Ober	0.93	14.0%	41.6%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	12:40 PM	Andrew Abbott	Mason Barnett	1.15	11.6%	36.6%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	12:36 PM	Brandon Young	Ryan Johnson	1.00	11.3%	36.0%	-	+0.0%
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Kohl Drake	Walker Buehler	1.02	11.0%	35.4%	-	+0.0%
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:06 PM	Cristopher Sánchez	Miles Mikolas	1.10	10.4%	33.9%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

22 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs	74.3	78.5	77.5	6	Changeup (54% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 35.0%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	66.5	72.9	65.5	3	Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 25.8%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	66.4	55.4	80.0	7	Split-Finger (35% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	60.6	59.5	64.5	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	57.4	54.1	64.5	6	Curveball (44% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	57.1	59.0	61.0	7	Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	51.4	50.8	53.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	51.1	49.5	54.5	6	Sweeper (31% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	50.3	50.7	51.5	7	Sweeper (34% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	47.0	48.3	47.5	5	Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	47.0	44.3	50.5	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	45.4	42.9	47.5	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	43.5	32.3	52.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	43.4	44.0	41.0	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	43.4	41.7	45.0	7	Slider (29% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	43.2	39.5	45.0	6	Sweeper (39% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	43.0	46.3	32.0	4	Split-Finger (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	42.9	41.6	45.5	5	Changeup (34% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	42.8	43.9	39.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays	41.2	44.0	36.0	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	31.6	26.5	31.0	6	Curveball (23% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 15.4%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	27.6	53.0	0.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.417, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

22 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	L	21.5%	4.3	4.3	5.1	72	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds	R	19.8%	2.4	5.0	5.0	40	short	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	L	17.1%	5.0	5.2	5.1	84	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.2%	6.1	5.7	5.8	102	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	L	27.3%	4.5	5.3	5.1	76	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	18.3%	5.1	5.0	5.0	86	short	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Luis Castillo	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	R	17.3%	5.8	5.2	5.3	97	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	L	18.5%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	L	19.5%	6.1	5.9	5.9	102	deep	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners	L	17.8%	6.0	5.5	5.6	101	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	R	20.4%	5.8	6.3	6.2	97	normal	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	R	19.4%	4.2	4.6	4.6	70	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves	R	18.8%	4.6	5.2	5.1	77	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	24.1%	4.8	5.2	5.1	80	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	17.4%	4.9	5.4	5.3	82	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians	R	28.2%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	L	26.9%	5.4	6.3	6.1	91	normal	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	25.2%	4.8	5.8	5.6	80	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	18.5%	4.3	4.7	4.7	72	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers	R	22.5%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	80.00	20.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs	R	35.7%	7.2	6.0	6.2	121	deep	full	77.50	22.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	10.4%	4.6	4.8	4.8	77	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Andrew Abbott	Andrew Abbott Under	Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	14.9	-2.6	14.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.59 <= 3 min
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	20.5	2.0	10.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.01 <= 3 min
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	18.8	1.3	7.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Miller	Bryce Miller Over	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	18.0	0.5	2.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.6	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Under	Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals	18.5	18.5	-0.0	0.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes