MLB Bets 2026-08-02

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	777W–374L–0P	68%	-30.57 u	Last 14 days • 1151 settled
Grade A	26W–27L–0P	49%	-6.65 u
Grade B	751W–347L–0P	68%	-23.93 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2871W–1859L–8P	61%	-159.16 u	All-time • 4738 settled
Grade A	240W–181L–0P	57%	-0.80 u
Grade B	2631W–1678L–8P	61%	-158.36 u

199 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Alec Burleson	1.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-139	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	A.J. Ewing	0.5	-351	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-333	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Alejandro Kirk	0.5	-234	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Alex Bregman	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	-398	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Andy Pages	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-331	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Austin Wells	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-549	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-281	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-369	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brice Turang	0.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Bryan Torres	0.5	-346	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-366	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Carter Jensen	0.5	-302	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.5	-561	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Christian Walker	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Colson Montgomery	0.5	-378	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Corey Seager	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Dane Myers	0.5	-294	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-426	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-386	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Dylan Beavers	0.5	-245	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Enmanuel Valdez	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-476	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	-237	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Evan Carter	0.5	-214	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-293	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Freddie Freeman	0.5	-334	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Gleyber Torres	0.5	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Griffin Conine	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Gunnar Henderson	0.5	-306	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-417	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jackson Holliday	0.5	-278	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jake Bauers	0.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-352	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jake Mangum	0.5	-459	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	James Jarvis	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	James Wood	0.5	-178	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-407	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jeremy Pena	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Joc Pederson	0.5	-192	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	John Rave	0.5	-501	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jonny Deluca	0.5	-354	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jorge Polanco	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jose Altuve	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jose Caballero	0.5	-376	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Josh Rojas	0.5	-620	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-364	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Kazuma Okamoto	0.5	-184	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-281	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Kyle Manzardo	0.5	-261	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Luis Robert Jr.	0.5	-530	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Luis Urias	0.5	-277	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Luke Maile	0.5	-446	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-465	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Masataka Yoshida	0.5	-461	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-343	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Miguel Amaya	0.5	-515	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Mike Yastrzemski	0.5	-251	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Mookie Betts	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Munetaka Murakami	0.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-384	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-334	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nick Sogard	0.5	-224	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-364	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nico Hoerner	0.5	-386	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Noelvi Marte	0.5	-496	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Nolan Arenado	0.5	-405	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-374	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Owen Caissie	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-359	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Pete Alonso	0.5	-242	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ronald Acuna Jr.	0.5	-174	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ryan McMahon	0.5	-306	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Ryan Vilade	0.5	-337	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-364	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-220	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-294	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Taylor Trammell	0.5	-225	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Tommy Edman	0.5	-455	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-448	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Tristan Peters	0.5	-416	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Troy Johnston	0.5	-346	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Tyler Stephenson	0.5	-222	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-267	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Wilyer Abreu	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-190	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	F5 Total	Under	6.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Cade Cavalli	4.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Colin Rea	5.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Gavin Williams	6.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Griffin Jax	5.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Jake Bennett	3.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Kumar Rocker	4.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Max Scherzer	3.5	114	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	7.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	NRFI	NRFI	-	118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Anthony Kay	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	2.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Chase Burns	2.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Colin Rea	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Emmet Sheehan	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Gavin Williams	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	George Kirby	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Gerrit Cole	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Griffin Jax	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	JR Ritchie	2.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob Misiorowski	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Keider Montero	2.5	-103	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Seth Lugo	3.5	-113	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Walbert Urena	2.5	-124	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Cade Cavalli	5.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jake Bennett	5.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Kyle Bradish	5.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Landen Roupp	5.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Peter Lambert	5.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Sandy Alcantara	6.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Seth Lugo	7.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Hits Allow	Seth Lugo	6.5	116	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Outs	Gavin Williams	17.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Anthony Kay	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Colin Rea	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	George Kirby	1.5	-248	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Keider Montero	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-202	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Bradish	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Peter Lambert	1.5	-181	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Walbert Urena	2.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Run Line	Boston Red Sox	+1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	YRFI	YRFI	-	130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	YRFI	YRFI	-	124	-	PENDING	-

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	493	56%	-11.62u	63	46%	-12.19u	231	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	439	57%	+2.69u	59	44%	-13.71u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	156	56%	+1.22u	18	72%	+4.30u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1304	74%	-7.70u	677	77%	+1.36u	7	86%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	473	57%	-15.93u	106	49%	-17.59u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	345	61%	-7.44u	79	63%	+2.28u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	46	74%	+1.84u	9	56%	-2.06u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	33	55%	+0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	113	48%	-11.69u	6	83%	+2.43u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	21	52%	-1.85u	20	55%	-0.85u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	550	52%	-49.19u	66	64%	+7.50u	80	55%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 493, 14d N 63	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 439, 14d N 59	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 156, 14d N 18	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 46, 14d N 9	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 23 total candidate(s); season N 33, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 113, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 21, 14d N 20	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 17 total candidate(s); season N 550, 14d N 66	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 17 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 774 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 222 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 751 pitcher(s), 3327 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 569 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 30 team(s), 270 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1032 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 270 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 15 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 2 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 332 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 1/1 game(s) with pitching props \| K 2 line(s)/1 game(s); Outs 2 line(s)/1 game(s); Hits Allowed 2 line(s)/1 game(s); Walks 2 line(s)/1 game(s); Earned Runs 2 line(s)/1 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 10
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 238 market side(s) checked \| 238 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 1 game(s) fetched \| 1 with ML odds \| 1 with total odds \| 0 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 17 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 1 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 1 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 611 \| batter bats 401 \| batter hand splits 148 \| pitcher HR splits 57 \| batter pitch-type 569 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 18 batter(s) scored \| 1 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+152	-185	1.5 (-146)	-1.5 (+121)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 14 Grade B | 71 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan Over	SOX@DOD	7:21 PM	5.5	6.7	-125	DK Over 5.5 -125 \| exact	22.4%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (3 play(s))

Batter H+R+RBI - Shohei Ohtani Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.67

Batter Total Bases - Masataka Yoshida Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Ceddanne Rafaela Over

Projection: 1.7Displayed: Over 1.5 +140Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 (-125) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	5.5	-132	+102	-
BetRivers	5.5	-136	+102	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	+100	-
DK	5.5	-125	-102	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-130	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 22.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.2, proj 6.7K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.2% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Muchlinski — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emmet Sheehan: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .432
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 23.2%, L7 21.6%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 33.3%/12 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.2% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.47
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (14 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 3.5 (-136) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-132	+102	-
BetRivers	3.5	-122	-108	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	Recommended
DK	3.5	-136	+106	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	3.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 49.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.3% / under 45.7%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Jake Bennett: K/9 6.5, proj 5.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.273 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Muchlinski — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 21.8%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.6% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.18
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: juiced K over -136 -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.73K, diff 49.4%, books 86%)

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Bennett Under 5.5 (-121) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.78 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 0.99, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 21.8%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 (-168) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-168	+126	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 4.64)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emmet Sheehan: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .432
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 23.2%, L7 21.6%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 33.3%/12 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 10 play(s) (B 10)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-469) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -469 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -469

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -469 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+314	-469	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/106 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 89/106 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-469); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-290) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -290; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+203	-290	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/103 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 77/103 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-290); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-426) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -426

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+288	-426	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/103 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 81/103 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-426) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-224) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+159	-224	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-224); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-461) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -461

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+309	-461	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-461); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-375) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+257	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/110 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 76/110 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-455) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -455

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+306	-455	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-455); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-330) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+229	-330	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-330); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-334) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -334

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+231	-334	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 69/108 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

⚠ Heavy juice (-334); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-290) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Heavy juice (-290); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Boston Red Sox +1.5 1.5 (-146) edge 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Boston Red Sox 1.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -146

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: FanDuel Boston Red Sox 1.5 -132 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+7.60/$100
✓ Cover prob 63.9% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 7.1% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 2 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -146 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Emmet Sheehan (RHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jake Bennett (LHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs LHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 116 (team 108)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.11
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Los Angeles Dodgers strong offense (wRC+ 116)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (71 signal(s))

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 17 play(s) (B 4 | C 13)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-129) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.456 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 58/110 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-130) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 60/108 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-122) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-106) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+107) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.515 (52 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/102 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 52/102 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+108) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-160	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.358 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 60/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 60/106 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+104) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+112) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.257 (72 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/104 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 50/104 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+109) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.358 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/102 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 46/102 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (+124) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.291 (53 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Under 2.5 (-152) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.67 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
DK	2.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.38 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.416, xSLG 0.617 (58 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.67 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/48 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 under 2.5 (47%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 53/101 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Under 1.5 (-173) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-110) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.98x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+138) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Under 1.5 (-122) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Romy Gonzalez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+106) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jake Bennett Under 1.5 (-146) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2302521510911524 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.7 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 21.8%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.1%, L7 6.1%, season 10.0% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Under 1.5 (-166) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4420200341669345 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Emmet Sheehan: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .432
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 23.2%, L7 21.6%, season 22.0%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 33.3%/12 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 6.9%, L7 9.0%, season 8.0%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-106) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-125	-106	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.23 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 2.77)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.2%, L7 21.8%, season 20.6%, top-6 19.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-260) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+185	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+192	-260	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.291)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.416 (58 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 9/19 (47%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/101 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 67/101 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-460) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -460 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -460

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -460 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+309	-460	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-354) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+244	-354	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-424) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -424

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+287	-424	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-404) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+275	-404	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-276) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+194	-276	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/102 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/51 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 62/102 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-450) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-275) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+193	-275	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/104 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 62/104 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-202) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -202 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -202 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+145	-202	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/102 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/52 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 61/102 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-226) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-230	-
DK	0.5	+161	-226	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 27/53 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 52/101 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 23 play(s) (C 19 | D 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-115) diff 223.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 223% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dalton Rushing Over 0.5 (-140) diff 204.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 0.5 (-190) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 0.5 (-160) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 (-155) diff 139.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (53 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/103 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 56/103 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 139.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-175) diff 121.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (72 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 61/104 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 121.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-109) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.617 (58 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 48/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.09

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+130) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (52 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/102 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 45/102 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+140) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-175	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/106 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 51/106 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+121) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/108 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 52/108 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+130) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/108 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/54 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 40/108 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+112) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/110 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 46/110 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Rojas Over 1.5 (+171) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jahmai Jones Over 1.5 (+171) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Romy Gonzalez Over 1.5 (+178) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +178

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.8% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-200) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+119) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+138) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-140) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (+260) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+126	-164	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 0.5 (-140) diff 187.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/102 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/51 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 32/51 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 57/102 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-135) diff 127.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/103 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/49 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 56/103 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

▸ Batter HR — 18 play(s) (C 18)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.8% / Under 85.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-900) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0865
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (72 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/104 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 95/104 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0971
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (53 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/103 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/103 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-900) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1321
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/106 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/106 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-900) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-600) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1481
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1636
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-600) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2059
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.358 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/102 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 86/102 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-390) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2286
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.273 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.617 (58 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 71, HR vulnerability 29 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/101 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 77/101 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2255
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.515 (52 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Emmet Sheehan contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Emmet Sheehan: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/102 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 80/102 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

7:21 PM · decision fi-65887b38caeceb3a

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI 51.1% / YRFI 48.9%

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jake Bennett · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Emmet Sheehan · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-01 · updated 2026-08-02T22:29:02.093848Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.511
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jake Bennett / Emmet Sheehan announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.511

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJake Bennett / Emmet Sheehan announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-121	-109	51.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 18 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=18
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	4	Emmet Sheehan (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	33.8%	19.7%	+14.1%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	1	Jake Bennett (L)	theScore Bet	+250	-	29.1%	26.4%	+2.6%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	3	Emmet Sheehan (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	28.2%	19.7%	+8.4%	94	-
Strong HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	2	Jake Bennett (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	24.4%	18.8%	+5.7%	82	-
Strong HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	8	Jake Bennett (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	23.3%	19.7%	+3.6%	78	-
Best HR Chance	Ceddanne Rafaela	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	2	Emmet Sheehan (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	19.8%	13.3%	+6.6%	66	-
Strong HR Chance	Andruw Monasterio	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	7	Emmet Sheehan (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	14.4%	13.3%	+1.1%	48	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Nick Sogard	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	1	Emmet Sheehan (R)	theScore Bet	+800	-	10.2%	10.4%	-0.2%	34	-
Deep HR Chance	Masataka Yoshida	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	5	Emmet Sheehan (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	8.2%	15.0%	-6.8%	27	-
Deep HR Chance	Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	4	Jake Bennett (L)	theScore Bet	+500	-	8.2%	15.6%	-7.4%	27	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	100	91.0%	-1007	Willson Contreras, Shohei Ohtani, Wilyer Abreu, Andy Pages	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.0%	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Willson Contreras — Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+375) HR chance 33.8% | edge +14.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.226, OPS 0.943, ISO 0.259, TB/G 1.88
Statcast: barrel 14.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.514
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 22/102 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0429, xFIP 3.98, K% 26.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.301, xERA 3.77, whiff 30.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.929, ISO 0.248 (305 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.515, xwOBA 0.366 (52 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Strong HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+250) HR chance 29.1% | edge +2.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.229, OPS 0.939, ISO 0.253, TB/G 2.01
Statcast: barrel 16.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.7/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.581
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 24/101 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0178, xFIP 3.87, K% 18.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.273, xERA 3.07, whiff 23.3%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.926, ISO 0.287 (146 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.617, xwOBA 0.416 (58 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor

Best HR Chance Wilyer Abreu — Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+375) HR chance 28.2% | edge +8.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.148, OPS 0.747, ISO 0.183, TB/G 1.65
Statcast: barrel 12.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/113.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.454
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 14/108 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0429, xFIP 3.98, K% 26.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.301, xERA 3.77, whiff 30.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.034, OPS 0.646, ISO 0.170 (319 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.464, xwOBA 0.344 (56 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Strong HR Chance Andy Pages — Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+400) HR chance 24.4% | edge +5.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.164, OPS 0.793, ISO 0.189, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 7.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.0/109.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.438
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 16/110 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0178, xFIP 3.87, K% 18.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.273, xERA 3.07, whiff 23.3%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.038, OPS 0.874, ISO 0.223 (131 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.456, xwOBA 0.341 (32 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor

Strong HR Chance Max Muncy — Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+375) HR chance 23.3% | edge +3.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.206, OPS 0.840, ISO 0.241, TB/G 1.63
Statcast: barrel 13.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.476
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 16/102 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0178, xFIP 3.87, K% 18.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.273, xERA 3.07, whiff 23.3%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.824, ISO 0.241 (88 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.358, xwOBA 0.300 (66 PA)

⚠ Low lineup spot (8)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

⚠ Elite contact-quality suppressor

Best HR Chance Ceddanne Rafaela — Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+600) HR chance 19.8% | edge +6.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.132, OPS 0.798, ISO 0.183, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 5.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 86.7/109.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.362
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 13/106 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.13
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0429, xFIP 3.98, K% 26.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.301, xERA 3.77, whiff 30.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.029, OPS 0.775, ISO 0.155 (313 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.358, xwOBA 0.278 (60 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Strong HR Chance Andruw Monasterio — Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+600) HR chance 14.4% | edge +1.1%

Statcast: barrel 9.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.2/107.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.407
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0429, xFIP 3.98, K% 26.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.301, xERA 3.77, whiff 30.2%
Park HR factor 0.97
Night game start 7:21 PM ET
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.95x
Market espnbet +600: implied 13.3%

⚠ Low lineup spot (7)

⚠ Batter power stats unavailable

HR Chance Watchlist Nick Sogard — Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+800) HR chance 10.2% | edge -0.2%

Statcast: barrel 6.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 82.8/101.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.299
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0429, xFIP 3.98, K% 26.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.301, xERA 3.77, whiff 30.2%
Park HR factor 0.97
Night game start 7:21 PM ET
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.95x
Market espnbet +800: implied 10.4%

⚠ Batter power stats unavailable

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Kyle Tucker	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+500	1.5%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Caleb Durbin	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+800	2.4%	Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Jarren Duran	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+500	5.7%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Tommy Edman	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+475	5.8%	Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Mookie Betts	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+500	6.3%	Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Dalton Rushing	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+525	6.3%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Carlos Narvaez	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+600	9.0%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Pitcher season stats unavailable
Elieser Hernández	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	+400	9.4%	Batter team unresolved \| Batter team unresolved \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Batter Statcast power unavailable \| Pitcher season stats unavailable

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:21 PM	Emmet Sheehan	Jake Bennett	0.97	9.0%	30.8%	4.7%	+4.3%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	89.9	93.3	98.5	5	Curveball (47% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 38.7%, put-away 32.2%, xwOBA 0.218, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles	72.8	70.5	80.5	6	Split-Finger (49% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	65.3	66.4	68.5	3	Slider (51% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	62.0	59.2	67.0	4	Changeup (37% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	59.8	64.4	57.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	59.3	68.9	53.0	5	Sweeper (44% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	58.4	49.2	71.0	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	57.9	51.3	66.5	5	Slider (25% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	56.3	50.7	63.5	7	Changeup (37% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	56.1	57.8	56.0	4	Cutter (38% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	55.3	50.4	62.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	54.7	71.2	41.0	6	Changeup (43% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	53.4	55.8	52.5	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	52.4	54.1	51.5	6	Slider (29% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	51.7	51.6	53.0	4	Curveball (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kyle Hart	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	51.2	41.2	62.0	5	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	51.0	47.3	54.5	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	50.8	45.2	57.0	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	49.6	38.6	62.5	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	47.4	53.1	43.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	44.4	48.9	39.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	42.7	47.3	34.5	8	Curveball (38% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	42.0	47.8	34.5	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	38.8	41.3	35.0	7	Sweeper (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	37.7	45.5	27.5	6	Curveball (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	35.2	37.0	31.0	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	33.3	36.2	29.0	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	28.1	28.2	21.0	5	Curveball (26% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 17.1%, put-away 10.3%, xwOBA 0.373, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	25.3	38.4	9.0	6	Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	R	17.0%	5.4	5.8	5.7	91	normal	full	9.00	91.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	L	26.6%	4.4	5.2	5.1	74	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	R	20.4%	2.7	5.1	4.8	45	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.7 IP/start
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	21.3%	5.3	5.6	5.6	89	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	18.0%	6.3	6.0	6.0	106	deep	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	R	17.9%	5.6	5.3	5.3	94	normal	full	29.00	71.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	19.2%	5.1	4.8	4.9	86	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	26.2%	5.4	5.6	5.6	91	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	37.0%	6.4	6.1	6.1	107	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	L	18.9%	6.2	5.2	5.4	104	deep	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	R	19.6%	4.3	5.7	5.4	72	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	25.2%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.6%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	22.5%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	R	26.3%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	19.4%	6.6	6.5	6.6	111	deep	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	R	42.9%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	98.50	1.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	R	25.7%	6.2	5.8	6.0	104	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	R	27.3%	6.1	5.7	6.0	102	deep	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles	R	35.7%	5.0	6.1	6.0	84	short	full	80.50	19.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	17.1%	4.2	5.4	5.2	70	short	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Kyle Hart	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	L	24.3%	1.8	1.9	4.0	30	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.8 IP/start
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	R	21.8%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	R	21.5%	6.2	6.0	6.0	104	deep	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.2%	5.1	4.9	4.9	86	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Griffin Jax	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	R	26.6%	5.2	4.6	4.7	87	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	R	22.1%	5.3	5.0	5.1	89	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Scherzer	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.4%	3.9	3.5	4.1	65	short	full	21.00	79.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	R	25.4%	6.0	5.1	6.0	101	deep	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

17 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Andy Pages	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.46	1.09	0.72	0.65	2.16 / Over	0.30	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.38	1.02	0.59	0.78	2.24 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ceddanne Rafaela	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.37	1.20	0.63	0.54	2.11 / Over	0.30	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Freddie Freeman	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.34	1.19	0.57	0.58	2.05 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.15	0.99	0.57	0.59	1.99 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kyle Tucker	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.75	0.81	0.52	0.42	1.62 / Over	0.30	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nick Sogard	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.72	0.94	0.43	0.35	1.53 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Tommy Edman	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.69	0.90	0.38	0.41	1.56 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Shohei Ohtani	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 2.5	2.66	1.16	0.85	0.65	2.38 / Under	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, component_side_conflicts_current_model
Caleb Durbin	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.61	0.79	0.45	0.38	1.58 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Masataka Yoshida	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.58	0.85	0.35	0.38	1.51 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Mookie Betts	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.58	0.84	0.36	0.38	1.53 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Max Muncy	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.58	0.77	0.46	0.35	1.60 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Elieser Hernández	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Under 1.5	1.42	0.84	0.32	0.27	1.56 / Over	0.69	lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment, component_side_conflicts_current_model
Teoscar Hernandez	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Under 1.5	1.34	0.79	0.30	0.25	1.47 / Under	0.64	lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Romy Gonzalez	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Under 1.5	1.32	0.80	0.27	0.25	1.52 / Over	0.69	lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment, component_side_conflicts_current_model
Dalton Rushing	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Under 1.5	1.19	0.72	0.24	0.22	1.43 / Under	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes