MLB Bets 2026-08-01

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	751W–373L–0P	67%	-40.39 u	Last 14 days • 1124 settled
Grade A	28W–28L–0P	50%	-6.09 u
Grade B	723W–345L–0P	68%	-34.29 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2833W–1841L–8P	61%	-159.85 u	All-time • 4682 settled
Grade A	240W–181L–0P	57%	-0.80 u
Grade B	2593W–1660L–8P	61%	-159.05 u

45 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-575	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-575	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Teoscar Hernandez	0.5	-317	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryce Miller	1.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Ranger Suarez	2.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Zebby Matthews	2.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Walks	Bryce Miller	0.5	-216	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Run Line	Minnesota Twins	+1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-31	K Prop	Carson Whisenhunt	3.5	-158	-	LOSS	-1.000	Carson Whisenhunt: 3.0 (line 3.5)
2026-07-31	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-148	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nathan Eovaldi: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-31	K Prop	Shane Drohan	5.5	-130	-	WIN	+0.769	Shane Drohan: 7.0 (line 5.5)
2026-07-31	K Prop	Brandon Young	4.5	-158	-	WIN	+0.633	Brandon Young: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-31	K Prop	Dylan Cease	7.5	-136	-	LOSS	-1.000	Dylan Cease: 7.0 (line 7.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	491	56%	-11.38u	69	46%	-12.34u	231	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	433	57%	+4.95u	62	47%	-11.51u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	153	56%	-0.71u	15	67%	+2.37u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1279	74%	-8.08u	652	76%	+0.98u	7	86%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	462	57%	-17.05u	107	48%	-20.68u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	344	60%	-7.91u	85	62%	+1.27u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	46	74%	+1.84u	9	56%	-2.06u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	33	55%	+0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	113	48%	-11.69u	10	70%	+1.86u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	19	58%	+0.15u	18	61%	+1.15u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	544	52%	-50.48u	60	63%	+6.21u	80	55%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 25 total candidate(s); season N 491, 14d N 69	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 433, 14d N 62	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 153, 14d N 15	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 30 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/30 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 46, 14d N 9	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 118 total candidate(s); season N 33, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 113, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 19, 14d N 18	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 544, 14d N 60	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 767 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 220 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 745 pitcher(s), 3297 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 568 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 30 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 30 SP matchup(s), 1256 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: New York Mets, New York Yankees, Athletics, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals, St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cincinnati Reds, Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	First-inning artifact: missing — no promoted or last-known-good artifact \| current-slate feature handoff missing
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 329 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 13/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 26 line(s)/13 game(s); Outs 11 line(s)/7 game(s); Hits Allowed 1 line(s)/1 game(s); Walks 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Earned Runs 0 line(s)/0 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 25, fanduel 10, bovada_direct 3 \| missing: Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 780 market side(s) checked \| 780 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 4 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 609 \| batter bats 400 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 568 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	+119	-144	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	+139	-168	+1.5 (-154)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	+109	-131	+1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+143	-173	+1.5 (-150)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-142	+118	-1.5 (+119)	+1.5 (-143)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+130)	+1.5 (-157)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:16 PM	+136	-164	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+161	-197	+1.5 (-130)	-1.5 (+108)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+143)	+1.5 (-174)	O/U 6.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:10 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+144)	+1.5 (-175)	O/U 12.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	+118	-142	+1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	+135	-163	+1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+135)	+1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-137	+114	-1.5 (+113)	+1.5 (-136)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 1 Grade B | 167 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (1 play(s))

K Prop - Andrew Abbott Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.83

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (1 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (-136) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 24.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Jose Soriano: K/9 8.9, proj 6.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.117
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 23.8%, L7 16.6%, season 20.9% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -136, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.117/AVG 0.455 over 14 PA, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash -- B risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (167 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 4 | C 20)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 (-103) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-105	-123	-
DK	6.5	-103	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 29.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.89K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob deGrom: K/9 10.9, proj 8.4K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 34.1% | put-away% 24.1% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Changeup: 30.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 116 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 0.9% | AVG .226 | OPS .772
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 116 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.6%, L7 25.0%, season 21.7%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 30.2%/116 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 6.60
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Max Fried Over 5.5 (+126) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+128	-167	-
DK	5.5	+126	-161	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+134	-172	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.8% / under 58.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Max Fried: K/9 8.6, proj 6.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.247 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 102 PA | K% 28.4% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .269 | OPS .754
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 102 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.5%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7%, active roster 20.8%/8 hitters, BVP 28.4%/102 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.8% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/12 (42%) | Season 5/12 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 (-102) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 18.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 8.5, proj 7.7K over 6.7 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Split-Finger: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.4%, L7 25.3%, season 22.1% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.21
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kohl Drake Over 3.5 (-147) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+117	-
DK	3.5	-147	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kohl Drake: K/9 7.4, proj 4.0K over 4.6 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 30.1% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.426 | top pitch: Cutter (50% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Cutter: 18.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kohl Drake: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 2.500
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 15.1%, L7 19.3%, season 22.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carson Whisenhunt Over 3.5 (-160) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 25.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.88K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Carson Whisenhunt: K/9 8.2, proj 4.4K over 4.9 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 15.9% | xwOBA 0.365 | top pitch: Changeup (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 21.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, L7 18.0%, season 20.8% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 25.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 4.5 (-125) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Jack Perkins: K/9 10.0, proj 5.3K over 4.5 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 24.1% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .700
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.3%, L7 17.6%, season 22.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/26 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 3.08
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Under 4.5 (-164) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.79K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Walker Buehler: K/9 8.4, proj 3.7K over 4.6 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 20.6% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 21.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .224 | OPS .538
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.4%, L7 18.0%, season 20.8%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 4.5 (+123) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	+123	-157	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+132	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.76K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 (+117) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	+118	-154	-
DK	7.5	+117	-150	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+124	-158	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.7K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 15.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.0, proj 8.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 24.8% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 28.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 48 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .667
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.1%, L7 22.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/48 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 7.14
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 7.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 (-111) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-111	-116	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	-111	-115	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 13.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.87K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.6% / under 50.4%); own-line consensus 1/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 10.0, proj 7.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 23.4% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Curveball: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 64 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .204 | OPS .572
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.9%, split 23.5%, L7 34.2%, season 25.2%, BVP 18.8%/64 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.43
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Mahle Over 3.5 (-162) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.3% / under 41.7%)
Tyler Mahle: K/9 7.5, proj 3.9K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 20.6% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Split-Finger (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Split-Finger: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 33 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 6.1% | AVG .290 | OPS .817
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 21.0%, L7 16.2%, season 22.1%, BVP 15.2%/33 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 (-163) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -163

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 4.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-172	+131	-
FanDuel	4.5	-170	+132	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+127	-163	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.5% / under 58.5%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Andrew Abbott: K/9 7.5, proj 5.0K over 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 22.7% | put-away% 15.6% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 72 PA | K% 23.6% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .227 | OPS .687
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 72 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 24.5%, L7 20.5%, season 24.0%, BVP 23.6%/72 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.27
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ronel Blanco Over 5.5 (+112) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
DK	5.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+126	-162	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ronel Blanco: K/9 9.8, proj 6.0K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 33.4% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.389 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ronel Blanco: 50 PA | K% 16.0% | BB% 12.0% | AVG .209 | OPS .622
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.6%, L7 27.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 16.0%/50 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/2 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 (-135) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-133	-
DK	5.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kevin Gausman: K/9 9.5, proj 5.1K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .308 | OPS .718
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 19.5%, L7 19.6%, season 20.4%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.59
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 4.5 (+121) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +121

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+119	-
DK	4.5	-154	+121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
David Peterson: K/9 6.5, proj 4.2K over 4.9 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 42.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .209 | OPS .655
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.5%, L7 27.3%, season 24.4%, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.2 ppts (recent 12.8% vs season 18.0%, proj adj -2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Phillips Over 3.5 (+103) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	+103	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Phillips: K/9 6.6, proj 3.7K over 4.2 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Curveball (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Phillips: 41 PA | K% 19.5% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .853
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 20.1%, L7 26.0%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.6%/6 hitters, BVP 19.5%/41 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; L7 team K% 26.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/27 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Framber Valdez Over 4.5 (-132) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.4, proj 4.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 79 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 2.5% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.7%, split 29.3%, L7 25.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.2%/79 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.38
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 (-111) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.5, proj 6.8K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.9% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Split-Finger (37% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 76 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .155 | OPS .451
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 76 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 19.6%, L7 17.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/76 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.00 | Season Avg 6.33
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 4.5 (+124) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +124

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 +124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 57.8% / under 42.2%)
Robert Gasser: K/9 7.9, proj 4.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Cutter (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Cutter: 18.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 24.0%, L7 22.7%, season 25.0%, active roster 25.5%/6 hitters (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 25.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.73
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-124) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	-103	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.8% / under 52.2%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Baz: K/9 8.1, proj 5.3K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .310 | OPS .823
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 23.0%, L7 23.5%, season 23.8%, active roster 23.4%/8 hitters, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Philadelphia Phillies 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 74%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.4% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.10
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reynaldo Lopez Over 4.5 (+113) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reynaldo Lopez: K/9 8.8, proj 4.6K over 4.8 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 33.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Reynaldo López: 53 PA | K% 22.6% | BB% 13.2% | AVG .267 | OPS .800
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.0%, L7 17.5%, season 21.2%, active roster 20.7%/7 hitters, BVP 22.6%/53 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Washington Nationals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
K% trend: support +3.2 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 21.6%, proj adj +1.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Payton Tolle Under 5.5 (-156) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Payton Tolle: K/9 11.1, proj 5.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 21.8% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Cutter (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Cutter: 17.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 21.2%, L7 19.8%, season 20.5% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 6.06
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 32.7% vs season 26.5%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Connor Prielipp Under 5.5 (+104) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +104

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Connor Prielipp: K/9 9.1, proj 5.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .071 | OPS .248
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 18.3%, L7 25.9%, season 23.1%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Parker Messick Under 4.5 (+129) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +129

Selected market: Over 58.7% / Under 41.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-172	+131	-
DK	4.5	-164	+129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-172	+134	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.7% / under 41.3%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Parker Messick: K/9 7.9, proj 4.4K over 5.9 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 29 PA | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .715
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, split 15.2%, L7 14.8%, season 19.2%, BVP 20.7%/29 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.7 ppts (recent 16.9% vs season 24.6%, proj adj -3.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zach Thornton Under 17.5 (-133) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 14.946 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (default starter baseline); leash adj +0.0 IP (no recent-form adjustment); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.6% / under 53.4%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, L7 9.2%, season 8.9% (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.55 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.55 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (+112) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.718 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 48 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .271 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.1%, L7 22.5%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/48 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 11.2%, L7 12.0%, season 10.2%, BVP 0.0%/48 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 18.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.22 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.22 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Parker Messick Over 17.5 (-155) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.865999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Parker Messick: 29 PA | K% 20.7% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .296 | OPS .715
Opponent K profile: composite 16.7%, split 15.2%, L7 14.8%, season 19.2%, BVP 20.7%/29 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.4%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.9%/29 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 16.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+130) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +130

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.82 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.4% / under 40.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 27 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 3.7% | AVG .308 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.5%, L7 19.6%, season 20.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.4%, L7 8.3%, season 8.5%, BVP 3.7%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 16.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jacob deGrom Over 17.5 (-156) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 18.043000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.13 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 116 PA | K% 30.2% | BB% 0.9% | AVG .226 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.6%, L7 25.0%, season 21.7%, BVP 30.2%/116 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 10.1%, L7 9.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 0.9%/116 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 16.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (+114) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +114

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.275 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.25 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 32 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .310 | OPS .823
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 23.0%, L7 23.5%, season 23.8%, BVP 21.9%/32 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 8.9%, L7 7.5%, season 7.8%, BVP 9.4%/32 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 11 play(s) (C 11)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-210) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-275) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -275

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+202	-275	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.265)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/38 (29%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 76/104 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-248) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+183	-248	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.308 (33 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/43 (30%) | L5 8/23 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/107 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 42/53 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 80/107 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-270) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.263)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.257 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 31 PA | 6/28 | HR 1 | K% 12.9% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .580
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/41 (27%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/110 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 44/56 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 80/110 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-236) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.391 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter Hits: 79/110 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Matt Olson Under 1.5 (-260) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.263)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.232 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 17 PA | 4/17 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .941
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter Hits: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 81/110 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-236) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+175	-236	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.292)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 38/51 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 75/107 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-203) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.275)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.355 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/39 (31%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/87 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/45 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 60/87 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-213) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.292)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.198 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/41 (22%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 73/104 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-256) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+189	-256	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.21 (AVG 0.318)
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.283 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 17/43 (40%) | L5 9/22 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/105 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 26/51 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter Hits: 61/105 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-226) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -226 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -226 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.29 (AVG 0.322)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.242 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/40 (20%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/107 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 64/107 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 118 play(s) (C 115 | D 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-169) diff 227.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/105 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/51 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 72/105 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.83

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Volpe Over 0.5 (-149) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jasson Domínguez Over 0.5 (-175) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-143) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Amed Rosario Over 0.5 (-169) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Amaya Over 0.5 (+112) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Caballero Over 0.5 (-112) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Trevino Over 0.5 (-143) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yohel Pozo Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremiah Jackson Over 0.5 (-169) diff 209.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 (-164) diff 202.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (63 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 31/52 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 65/109 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.65

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (-123) diff 201.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-130) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-149) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Urias Over 0.5 (-130) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-135) diff 198.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.264 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 18 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .600
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 63/102 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (-143) diff 191.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.482 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 11 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 45.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .273
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/93 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/45 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 33/48 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 61/93 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 192% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (-156) diff 166.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/90 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/38 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 23/52 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 44/90 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (-156) diff 164.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.389 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 21 PA | 7/17 | HR 1 | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.064
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 71/107 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 164% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-156) diff 138.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.372 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (-143) diff 137.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 137.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.211 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 70/109 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 137.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 137.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-130) diff 126.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.387 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 54/109 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 126.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-164) diff 104.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.159 (11 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/102 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 64/102 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.534 (63 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 11 PA | 5/11 | HR 3 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.727
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.70 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+129) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.724 (69 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 7 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 57.1% | OPS 2.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+167) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +167

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.406 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/105 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 49/105 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-108) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 17 PA | 4/17 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .941
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+131) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter TB: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+109) diff 45.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.471 (58 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Reynaldo López contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Reynaldo López: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.111
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/103 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 40/103 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+128) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter TB: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+178) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +178

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.513 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter TB: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+124) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.554 (25 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/93 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 42/93 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-118) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.578 (31 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/87 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 37/87 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+126) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 48/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-111) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.272 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 23.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/104 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 47/104 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-107) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (40 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+101) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.460 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/104 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 44/104 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-196) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -196 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -196 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/106 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 72/106 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Under 1.5 (-187) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (33 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-233) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.291 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 70/108 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+161) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +161

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 40/105 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.379 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 31/80 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/39 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 15/41 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 31/80 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+190) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.657 (28 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jordan Hicks contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jordan Hicks: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/105 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 48/105 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+122) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.424 (74 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 13 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .846
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 44/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+128) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.359 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 32/86 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 17/43 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 32/86 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-238) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 67/104 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+109) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.268 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 31 PA | 6/28 | HR 1 | K% 12.9% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .580
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/110 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 47/110 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+129) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/90 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/45 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 45/90 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+178) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +178

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ronel Blanco contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Ronel Blanco: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/101 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 40/101 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+115) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.426 (20 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kevin Gausman: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 29/49 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+158) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.490 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-188) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.254 (18 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 71/105 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-200) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/97 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 64/97 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+141) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.657 (20 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 31/81 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/40 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 31/81 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+139) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.521 (40 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 27 PA | 6/27 | HR 1 | K% 40.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .593
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/110 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 46/110 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+138) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.421 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/108 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 38/108 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+131) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.431 (30 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 41/105 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-217) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -217

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.426 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.394 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kohl Drake contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/102 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 68/102 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+108) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (56 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/106 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+104) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (33 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/107 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 17/53 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 39/107 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+164) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.628 (38 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-152) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 66/104 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+125) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.524 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/106 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 41/106 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-270) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.336 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 10 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/52 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 61/104 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+135) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/107 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 44/107 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+124) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.329 (30 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 43/109 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Endy Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+190) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.482 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/100 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 37/100 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-171) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Miles Mikolas contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Miles Mikolas: 22 PA | 8/21 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 4.5% | OPS .981
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-121) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+134) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+145) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+130) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.367 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Parker Messick contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Parker Messick: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/105 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 51/105 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-169) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.214 (15 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 65/105 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+104) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Quinn Mathews: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 45/107 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-198) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.296 (37 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 64/104 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-176) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -176 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 72/109 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+102) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.239 (42 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/110 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 44/110 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Under 1.5 (-233) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.197 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 18 PA | 4/18 | HR 3 | K% 27.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/86 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/42 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 28/44 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 56/86 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 (+126) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+199) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +199

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+178) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +178

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 1.5 (+164) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jhostynxon Garcia Over 1.5 (+174) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+114) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+199) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +199

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 (+171) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.297 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+126) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+108) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (+204) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +204

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+110) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+110	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+171) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-179) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.203 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 72/111 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/79 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 33/79 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.491 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/110 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/56 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 37/110 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+104) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+117) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+142) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+144) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+164) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+141) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+171) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+164) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.292 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.392 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob deGrom contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob deGrom: 24 PA | 2/24 | HR 2 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/107 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 44/107 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-187) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.204 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/99 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 61/99 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Under 1.5 (-181) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.252 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Phillips contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Phillips: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 70/106 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+115) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+138) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 (+141) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+182) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +182

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+149) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+136) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+199) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +199

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Davis Schneider Over 0.5 (+112) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-112) diff 188.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (81 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 11 PA | 7/11 | HR 2 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.909
BVP production adjustment: 1.13x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/51 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/106 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 (+100) diff 119.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.247 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.395 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/105 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 54/105 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

▸ Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 6.5 6.5 (+100) edge 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +100

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 6.5

Line distribution: 6.5 at 9 books | 6 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 6.5 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6	-125	-	Recommended
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-	-
BetOnline	6.5	+100	-	-
BetRivers	6.5	-112	-	-
BetUS	6.5	+100	-	-
DK	6.5	+100	-	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-104	-	-
LowVig	6.5	+103	-	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	6.5	-102	-	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph ESE -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 6.5
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 11 mph ESE -- crosswind, minor effect | Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk
Stats within normal range

⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 36% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Under 10.5 10.5 (+100) edge 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 11 -121 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 10.5 +100

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 10.5

Line distribution: 10.5 at 9 books | 11 at 1 book

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 11 -121 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Under 10.5 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	10.5	-	+100	-
BetOnline	10.5	-	+100	-
BetRivers	10.5	-	-108	-
BetUS	10.5	-	+100	-
Bovada Direct	10.5	-	+100	-
DK	10.5	-	+100	Selected
FanDuel	10.5	-	+100	-
LowVig	10.5	-	+103	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	10.5	-	+100	-
MyBookie	11	-	-121	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Framber Valdez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs LHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-105) edge 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 8.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -105

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 8.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8.5 -102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	-105	-	-
BetRivers	8.5	-105	-	-
BetUS	8.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-105	-	-
DK	8.5	-105	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-106	-	-
LowVig	8.5	-102	-	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	8.5	-102	-	Recommended
theScore Bet	8.5	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Andrew Abbott (LHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Braxton Ashcraft elite xFIP (3.26)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 Total — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (+100) edge 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-103	-117	-
BetUS	3.5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	3.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph ESE -- crosswind, minor effect
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
David Peterson xFIP 4.35
Max Fried xFIP 3.78
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 104)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 11 mph ESE -- crosswind, minor effect | Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 48.5% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ High F5 edge 21% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 6.5 6.5 (-115) edge 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS Under 6.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetUS Under 6.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 5.5 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: BetUS (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: betus (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.70
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.67
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-102) edge 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS Under 6 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book | 6 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetUS Under 6 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 5.5 -102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	5.5	-128	-102	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetUS	6	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.25
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.31
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)
Away SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 47.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-118) edge 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (F5) | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetUS Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetUS	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-110	-118	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Andrew Alvarez (Washington Nationals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Reynaldo López xFIP 4.40
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.75
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 101)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 121 blended 50% (team 108)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Reynaldo López (RHP)
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Minnesota Twins +1.5 1.5 (-150) edge 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Minnesota Twins 1.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -150

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Minnesota Twins 1.5 -143 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+12.85/$100
✓ Cover prob 67.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 10.4% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -150 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.3
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 50% (8 books)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	Total	Over 6.5	DK	+100	47.8%	83.7%	+35.8%	$+67.33	9	Bet on DK
C	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Total	Under 10.5	DK	+100	47.8%	66.4%	+18.6%	$+32.84	9	Bet on DK
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-105	48.9%	64.0%	+15.1%	$+25.05	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Over 6.5 — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +35.8%

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph ESE -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 6.5
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 11 mph ESE -- crosswind, minor effect | Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk
Stats within normal range

C Under 10.5 — Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (Total) +18.6%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 10.5
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP) | opp wRC+ 117 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Framber Valdez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs LHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (Total) +15.1%

[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Isaias Uribe (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Evan Sisk (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Chris Devenski (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Andrew Abbott (LHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Braxton Ashcraft elite xFIP (3.26)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	7:16 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	+100	46.9%	68.0%	+21.1%	$+36.01	2	Bet on DK
C	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	8:10 PM	F5 Total	Under 6.5	BetUS	-115	50.0%	66.1%	+16.1%	$+23.65	—	Bet on DK
C	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-102	47.4%	63.0%	+15.7%	$+24.80	1	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (F5)	7:16 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-118	50.8%	59.2%	+8.3%	$+9.29	1	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

C Over 3.5 — New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total) +21.1%

[INJ] Yovanny Cruz (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph ESE -- crosswind, minor effect
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
David Peterson xFIP 4.35
Max Fried xFIP 3.78
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 104)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 11 mph ESE -- crosswind, minor effect | Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk
Home SP: David Peterson (LHP)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP)

C Under 6.5 — Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total) +16.1%

[INJ] Jose Cuas (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 5.5 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: BetUS (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: betus (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.70
Luinder Avila xFIP 4.67
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Luinder Avila (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Detroit Tigers @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +15.7%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.25
Framber Valdez xFIP 4.31
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 100)
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 100)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)
Away SP: Framber Valdez (LHP)

C Under 5.5 — Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (F5) (F5 Total) +8.3%

[IL] Brad Lord (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Andrew Alvarez (Washington Nationals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Juan Sanchez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.9 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL)
Reynaldo López xFIP 4.40
Miles Mikolas xFIP 4.75
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 101)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 121 blended 50% (team 108)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Reynaldo López (RHP)
Away SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays

3:08 PM · decision fi-58f51d8f6b68d706

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Quinn Mathews · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kevin Gausman · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-117	-114	50.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

4:11 PM · decision fi-6ca5d82d13bb1a3d

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jordan Hicks · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Drew Rasmussen · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-117	-113	50.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+108	-138	45.3%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

4:11 PM · decision fi-554e0fca333f3baa

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Tyler Phillips · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Zac Thornton · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-117	-114	50.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners

4:11 PM · decision fi-9fd4610308e13e62

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Connor Prielipp · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Gilbert · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-121	-110	51.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

6:41 PM · decision fi-50d0e79e99b95305

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Braxton Ashcraft · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andrew Abbott · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-128	-103	52.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-134	+102	53.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

7:06 PM · decision fi-7f44113b82ae1897

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Cristopher Sánchez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shane Baz · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

7:11 PM · decision fi-23ebbb99a8fbe79a

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jacob deGrom · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ronel Blanco · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

7:16 PM · decision fi-b2e1878c4cbb79c4

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Kohl Drake · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Parker Messick · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

3 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-ebace5f71ea06968

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Miles Mikolas · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Reynaldo López · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	+123	-162	42.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+122	-156	42.5%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

7:16 PM · decision fi-49c574119196d3c9

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Max Fried · official_announced · matched

Home starter: David Peterson · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

2 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-167	+125	58.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-164	+128	58.6%	ACCEPTED

Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies

8:10 PM · decision fi-846a7fc316d7bab0

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Luinder Avila · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Feltner · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

0 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (0 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
No paired first-inning quotes were available.

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

8:41 PM · decision fi-3e4c9ef8e0fbafcb

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Tyler Mahle · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Walker Buehler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

1 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (1 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

9:11 PM · decision fi-64f6260cd81ed207

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Payton Tolle · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

1 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (1 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-132	+104	53.7%	ACCEPTED

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels

9:39 PM · decision fi-165ed7274fe2bb99

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Robert Gasser · official_announced · matched

Home starter: José Soriano · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

1 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (1 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED

Detroit Tigers @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-5a1ccf16b1fcb84f

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Framber Valdez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jack Perkins · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-08-01T04:43:01.645963Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

1 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (1 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	+102	-130	46.7%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 0 batter line(s)
Market discovery: no extra HR markets returned
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

No batter HR chances clear the watchlist tier.

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	100	92.8%	-1285	-	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 7.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	89.1%	-817	-	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:10 PM	100	89.1%	-814	-	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	100	87.5%	-698	-	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	99	86.2%	-622	-	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:16 PM	92	84.8%	-558	-	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	92	84.6%	-548	-	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	92	84.4%	-542	-	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	92	84.2%	-531	-	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	91	84.1%	-530	-	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	91	83.9%	-519	-	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	91	83.7%	-514	-	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	91	83.4%	-504	-	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	87	80.1%	-402	-	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Watchlist	New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	87	80.0%	-401	-	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| Wind 11 mph ESE -- crosswind, minor effect \| Precip chance 48% -- delay/postponement risk	-

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs	7:16 PM	David Peterson	Max Fried	1.05	20.0%	52.1%	—	—
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays	4:11 PM	Drew Rasmussen	Jordan Hicks	0.94	19.9%	52.1%	—	—
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Payton Tolle	0.97	16.6%	46.3%	—	—
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Shane Baz	Cristopher Sánchez	1.00	16.3%	45.9%	—	—
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	Logan Gilbert	Connor Prielipp	0.92	16.1%	45.6%	—	—
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	8:41 PM	Walker Buehler	Tyler Mahle	0.85	15.9%	45.1%	—	—
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	Kevin Gausman	Quinn Mathews	0.96	15.8%	45.0%	—	—
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	Zac Thornton	Tyler Phillips	0.93	15.6%	44.6%	—	—
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Jack Perkins	Framber Valdez	1.00	15.4%	44.3%	—	—
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	7:16 PM	Parker Messick	Kohl Drake	0.95	15.2%	43.8%	—	—
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	José Soriano	Robert Gasser	0.98	13.8%	41.2%	—	—
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	Andrew Abbott	Braxton Ashcraft	1.15	12.5%	38.6%	—	—
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies	8:10 PM	Ryan Feltner	Luinder Avila	1.20	10.9%	35.1%	—	—
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Reynaldo López	Miles Mikolas	1.03	10.9%	35.1%	—	—
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	Ronel Blanco	Jacob deGrom	1.00	7.2%	26.2%	—	—

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	66.4	53.1	84.0	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.247, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	65.9	76.0	61.5	5	Changeup (44% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 34.1%, put-away 24.1%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles	65.8	71.4	65.0	3	Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	65.0	58.4	74.5	5	Cutter (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jordan Hicks	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	61.2	54.8	70.5	4	Sweeper (46% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	59.8	59.6	62.5	5	Curveball (41% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	59.8	57.6	68.5	6	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	59.7	52.7	70.0	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	58.8	63.3	59.5	6	Split-Finger (37% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	58.8	52.7	69.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	57.5	64.1	52.0	6	Changeup (45% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 24.1%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	55.5	67.7	47.0	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	54.6	56.9	54.0	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	51.3	43.5	57.5	5	Cutter (26% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	50.1	48.3	52.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	47.8	45.2	50.0	5	Split-Finger (27% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	47.7	53.7	41.0	6	Curveball (47% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.0	44.5	47.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	45.5	42.7	48.0	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	44.5	49.0	39.0	5	Changeup (35% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	44.4	47.8	42.5	4	Slider (35% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	44.3	43.5	45.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	43.5	44.8	40.5	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	42.4	45.5	43.5	7	Sweeper (28% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	40.4	43.4	34.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	40.3	68.9	13.0	4	Changeup (43% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 33.4%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	38.7	51.0	24.5	6	Changeup (48% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	32.1	25.9	33.5	6	Curveball (23% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 15.1%, put-away 12.0%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	30.1	59.6	0.0	5	Cutter (50% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.426, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Kohl Drake	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians	L	19.3%	4.5	4.5	5.4	76	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	R	24.8%	4.3	4.7	4.8	72	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	R	22.8%	4.9	4.5	4.6	82	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	20.8%	5.5	5.8	5.8	92	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	28.7%	4.5	5.6	5.4	76	short	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees	L	16.2%	5.0	4.9	4.9	84	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Jordan Hicks	Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	24.8%	1.0	-	4.8	17	short	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	19.4%	5.4	5.3	5.3	91	normal	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	21.9%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals	R	17.8%	4.6	4.7	4.7	77	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	L	18.5%	5.8	5.4	5.5	97	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ronel Blanco	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	25.4%	4.7	5.0	5.5	79	short	full	13.00	87.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies	R	19.8%	4.8	4.5	4.5	80	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	24.1%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox	R	24.4%	6.8	6.6	6.7	114	deep	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	16.8%	3.6	4.5	4.3	60	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	20.7%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners	L	23.5%	5.6	5.2	5.2	94	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	L	21.0%	5.8	5.9	5.8	97	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs	L	23.6%	4.4	5.8	6.0	74	short	full	84.00	16.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles	L	25.8%	5.6	6.3	6.2	94	normal	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	25.8%	5.0	5.8	6.0	84	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	R	20.6%	4.3	4.8	4.7	72	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres	R	19.7%	5.2	5.2	5.2	87	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins	R	26.5%	6.3	6.0	6.0	106	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%, season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox	R	24.1%	5.0	5.6	5.5	84	short	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	R	29.7%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	24.2%	5.2	5.5	5.5	87	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	R	10.4%	4.8	4.7	4.8	80	short	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Zach Thornton	Zach Thornton Under	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	17.5	14.9	-2.5	14.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.55 <= 3 min
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	18.5	20.7	2.2	12.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.22 <= 3 min
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	18.9	1.4	7.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	16.8	-0.7	3.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jacob deGrom	Jacob deGrom Over	Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros	17.5	18.0	0.5	3.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes