| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 491 | 56% | -11.38u | 69 | 46% | -12.34u | 231 | 57% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 433 | 57% | +4.95u | 62 | 47% | -11.51u | 4 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 153 | 56% | -0.71u | 15 | 67% | +2.37u | 43 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 1279 | 74% | -8.08u | 652 | 76% | +0.98u | 7 | 86% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 462 | 57% | -17.05u | 107 | 48% | -20.68u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 344 | 60% | -7.91u | 85 | 62% | +1.27u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 46 | 74% | +1.84u | 9 | 56% | -2.06u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 33 | 55% | +0.50u | 2 | 50% | -0.16u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 10 | 30% | -4.27u | 1 | 100% | +0.91u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 113 | 48% | -11.69u | 10 | 70% | +1.86u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 55 | 40% | -9.78u | 5 | 60% | +0.73u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 19 | 58% | +0.15u | 18 | 61% | +1.15u | 1 | 0% | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 544 | 52% | -50.48u | 60 | 63% | +6.21u | 80 | 55% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 3/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | 66.4 | 53.1 | 84.0 | 7 | Changeup (29% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.247, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | 65.9 | 76.0 | 61.5 | 5 | Changeup (44% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 34.1%, put-away 24.1%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | 65.8 | 71.4 | 65.0 | 3 | Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.0 | 58.4 | 74.5 | 5 | Cutter (29% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jordan Hicks | Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | 61.2 | 54.8 | 70.5 | 4 | Sweeper (46% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | 59.8 | 59.6 | 62.5 | 5 | Curveball (41% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox | 59.8 | 57.6 | 68.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (33% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | 59.7 | 52.7 | 70.0 | 6 | Changeup (38% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | 58.8 | 63.3 | 59.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (37% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.8 | 52.7 | 69.5 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 57.5 | 64.1 | 52.0 | 6 | Changeup (45% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 24.1%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | 55.5 | 67.7 | 47.0 | 5 | Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals | 54.6 | 56.9 | 54.0 | 3 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | 51.3 | 43.5 | 57.5 | 5 | Cutter (26% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | 50.1 | 48.3 | 52.0 | 5 | Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | 47.8 | 45.2 | 50.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (27% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | 47.7 | 53.7 | 41.0 | 6 | Curveball (47% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies | 46.0 | 44.5 | 47.5 | 5 | Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | 45.5 | 42.7 | 48.0 | 5 | Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | 44.5 | 49.0 | 39.0 | 5 | Changeup (35% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 44.4 | 47.8 | 42.5 | 4 | Slider (35% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 44.3 | 43.5 | 45.5 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.5 | 44.8 | 40.5 | 5 | Changeup (37% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 42.4 | 45.5 | 43.5 | 7 | Sweeper (28% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees | 40.4 | 43.4 | 34.5 | 5 | Curveball (34% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ronel Blanco | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 40.3 | 68.9 | 13.0 | 4 | Changeup (43% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 33.4%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals | 38.7 | 51.0 | 24.5 | 6 | Changeup (48% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | 32.1 | 25.9 | 33.5 | 6 | Curveball (23% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 15.1%, put-away 12.0%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kohl Drake | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | 30.1 | 59.6 | 0.0 | 5 | Cutter (50% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.426, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Quinn Mathews | St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kohl Drake | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 19.3% | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 76 | short | full | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | R | 24.8% | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 72 | short | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | R | 22.8% | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 82 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 20.8% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 28.7% | 4.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 76 | short | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees | L | 16.2% | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 84 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Jordan Hicks | Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 24.8% | 1.0 | - | 4.8 | 17 | short | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 19.4% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 21.9% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals | R | 17.8% | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 77 | short | full | 24.50 | 75.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | L | 18.5% | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 97 | normal | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ronel Blanco | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | R | 25.4% | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 79 | short | full | 13.00 | 87.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | R | 19.8% | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 80 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 24.1% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox | R | 24.4% | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 114 | deep | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | R | 16.8% | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 60 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.6 IP/start |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 20.7% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | L | 23.5% | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 94 | normal | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Zac Thornton | New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | L | 21.0% | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 97 | normal | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Max Fried | New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | L | 23.6% | 4.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 74 | short | full | 84.00 | 16.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 25.8% | 5.6 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 94 | normal | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 25.8% | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 84 | short | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | R | 20.6% | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 72 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | R | 19.7% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 87 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | R | 26.5% | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 106 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Quinn Mathews | St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.4%, season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | R | 24.1% | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | R | 29.7% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 24.2% | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | R | 10.4% | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 80 | short | full | 33.50 | 66.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Thornton | Zach Thornton Under | Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 14.9 | -2.5 | 14.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.55 <= 3 min |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | 18.5 | 20.7 | 2.2 | 12.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.2 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.22 <= 3 min |
| Parker Messick | Parker Messick Over | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 7.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 16.8 | -0.7 | 3.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Jacob deGrom | Jacob deGrom Over | Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 3.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Under | Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Signal Breakdown ✓!✗– | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► Add Signals | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Only Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | BRE@ANG | 9:39 PM | 5.5 | 6.8 | -136 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -136 | exact | 24.3% | ✓✓!!–– | Add Signal |
| ► Lean Signals (Derisked) | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 8.4 | -103 | DK Over 6.5 -103 | exact | 29.1% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Max Fried Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | +126 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +134 | best price | 20.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (1 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | SOX@DOD | 9:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.7 | -102 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | exact | 18.8% | ✓✓✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Carson Whisenhunt Over | GIA@PAD | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -160 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -160 | exact | 25.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Perkins Over | TIG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -125 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | exact | 18.8% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Under | GIA@PAD | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -164 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -164 | exact | 17.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zach Thornton Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | +123 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +132 | best price | 16.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 7.5 | 8.7 | +117 | FanDuel Over 7.5 +124 | best price | 15.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.4 | -111 | BetOnline Over 6.5 -111 | best price | 13.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Over | GIA@PAD | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -162 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | exact | 11.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Under | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -163 | DK Under 5.5 -163 | exact | 9.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ronel Blanco Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | +112 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price | 9.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Under | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -135 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -130 | best price | 8.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | David Peterson Under | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | +121 | DK Under 4.5 +121 | exact | 7.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | +103 | DK Over 3.5 +103 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Framber Valdez Over | TIG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -132 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | exact | 4.9% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Gilbert Over | TWI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | -111 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -111 | exact | 4.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@ANG | 9:39 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | +124 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +124 | exact | 3.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Baz Under | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -124 | DK Under 5.5 -124 | exact | 2.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Reynaldo Lopez Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | +113 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +120 | best price | 2.4% | ✓✗✗!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Payton Tolle Under | SOX@DOD | 9:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -156 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -156 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Connor Prielipp Under | TWI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | +104 | FanDuel Under 5.5 +104 | exact | 1.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Parker Messick Under | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | +129 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +134 | best price | 1.2% | ✓✗!!–– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.55 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zach Thornton Under | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.9 | -133 | DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact | 14.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.22 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 18.5 | 20.7 | +112 | DK Over 18.5 +112 | exact | 12.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Parker Messick Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 18.9 | -155 | DK Over 17.5 -155 | exact | 7.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kevin Gausman Under | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 17.5 | 16.8 | +130 | DK Under 17.5 +130 | exact | 3.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jacob deGrom Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.0 | -156 | DK Over 17.5 -156 | exact | 3.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shane Baz Under | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | +114 | DK Under 17.5 +114 | exact | 1.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Ronald Acuna Jr. Under | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -210 | DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact | 39.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -275 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price | 34.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Trea Turner Under | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -248 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price | 31.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Ozzie Albies Under | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -270 | DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact | 29.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Bo Bichette Under | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -236 | DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact | 27.9% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Matt Olson Under | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -260 | DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact | 27.3% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Ernie Clement Under | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -236 | DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact | 24.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Drake Baldwin Under | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -203 | DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact | 23.0% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Michael Harris II Under | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -213 | DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact | 21.2% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Nick Gonzales Under | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -256 | DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact | 17.1% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Otto Lopez Under | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -226 | DK Under 1.5 -226 | exact | 13.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Batter Total Bas | Noelvi Marte Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -169 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact | 227.2% | ✗✓!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection | Batter Total Bas | Anthony Volpe Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -149 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact | 221.9% | ✗✓!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection | Batter Total Bas | Jasson Domínguez Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -175 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact | 221.9% | ✗✓!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection | Batter Total Bas | Carson Kelly Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -143 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact | 221.9% | ✗✓!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection | Batter Total Bas | Amed Rosario Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -169 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact | 221.9% | ✗✓!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (1 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Miguel Amaya Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | +112 | BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | exact | 221.9% | ✗✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Weak) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (1 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jose Caballero Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -112 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact | 221.9% | ✗✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Batter Total Bas | Jose Trevino Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -143 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact | 218.9% | ✗✓!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Batter Total Bas | Coby Mayo Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -130 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact | 209.1% | ✗✓!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Batter Total Bas | Yohel Pozo Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -130 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact | 209.1% | ✗✓!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Batter Total Bas | Jeremiah Jackson Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -169 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | exact | 209.1% | ✗✓!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Batter Total Bas | Gunnar Henderson Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -164 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact | 202.5% | ✗✓!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 201.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Austin Hedges Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -123 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact | 201.0% | ✗✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jimmy Crooks Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -130 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact | 200.0% | ✗✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Blaze Jordan Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -149 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact | 200.0% | ✗✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Luis Urias Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -130 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact | 200.0% | ✗✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -135 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact | 198.2% | ✗✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Seiya Suzuki Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -143 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact | 191.8% | ✗✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Trent Grisham Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.3 | -156 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact | 166.6% | ✗✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alex Bregman Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.3 | -156 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact | 164.0% | ✗✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Justin Crawford Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -156 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact | 138.9% | ✗✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 137.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Michael Busch Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -143 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact | 137.6% | ✗✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 126.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Cam Smith Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 0.5 | 1.1 | -130 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact | 126.2% | ✗✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Masyn Winn Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 0.5 | 1.0 | -164 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact | 104.3% | ✗✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Yordan Alvarez Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -112 | BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price | 65.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | James Wood Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | +129 | DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact | 59.5% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ben Rice Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | +167 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact | 52.9% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Matt Olson Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -108 | DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact | 48.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | CJ Abrams Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +131 | DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact | 47.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Luis Garcia Jr. Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +109 | DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact | 45.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Brandon Lowe Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +128 | DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact | 40.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nathaniel Lowe Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +178 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact | 40.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Chase DeLauter Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +124 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price | 38.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Drake Baldwin Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -118 | DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact | 37.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jordan Walker Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +126 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price | 37.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Michael Harris II Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -111 | DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact | 35.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kyle Schwarber Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -107 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price | 35.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Brandon Nimmo Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +101 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price | 31.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Otto Lopez Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +106 | DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact | 29.1% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Geraldo Perdomo Under | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -196 | DK Under 1.5 -196 | exact | 25.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Taylor Ward Under | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -187 | DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact | 24.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nico Hoerner Under | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -233 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | exact | 23.8% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jake Burger Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +161 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | exact | 23.2% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jose Ramirez Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +100 | DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact | 22.4% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Yainer Diaz Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +190 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact | 19.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bryan Reynolds Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +122 | DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact | 18.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kyle Stowers Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +128 | DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact | 18.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nolan Arenado Under | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -238 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | exact | 17.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ozzie Albies Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +109 | DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact | 17.6% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Elly De La Cruz Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +129 | DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact | 17.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ezequiel Duran Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +178 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact | 16.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alec Burleson Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +115 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price | 16.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Pete Crow-Armstrong Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +158 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | exact | 15.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alec Bohm Under | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -188 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -175 | best price | 15.3% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Daulton Varsho Under | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -200 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | exact | 14.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | JJ Bleday Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +141 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | exact | 14.6% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Pete Alonso Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +139 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price | 13.4% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Brayan Rocchio Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +138 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price | 12.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Brandon Marsh Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +131 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price | 12.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Steven Kwan Under | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -217 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | exact | 12.6% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Corbin Carroll Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +108 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price | 12.5% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Trea Turner Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +104 | DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact | 12.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ildemaro Vargas Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +164 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact | 11.9% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -152 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -141 | best price | 11.5% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Mauricio Dubon Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +125 | DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact | 10.8% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Isaac Paredes Under | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -270 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -270 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kazuma Okamoto Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +135 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price | 10.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Sal Stewart Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +124 | DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact | 10.2% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Endy Rodriguez Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +190 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact | 9.7% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Austin Riley Under | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -171 | DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact | 9.5% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ronald Acuna Jr. Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -121 | DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact | 9.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Dylan Crews Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +134 | DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact | 9.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Keibert Ruiz Over | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +145 | DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact | 9.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ketel Marte Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +130 | DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | JJ Wetherholt Under | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -169 | DK Under 1.5 -169 | exact | 8.7% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ernie Clement Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +104 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price | 8.4% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bryson Stott Under | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -198 | DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact | 8.4% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ivan Herrera Under | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -176 | DK Under 1.5 -176 | exact | 7.8% | ✓✗!––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bryce Harper Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +102 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jose Altuve Under | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -233 | BetOnline Under 1.5 -233 | exact | 7.4% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Paul Goldschmidt Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +126 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jared Triolo Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +199 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Eugenio Suarez Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +178 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Henry Davis Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +164 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jhostynxon Garcia Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +174 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Esmerlyn Valdez Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +114 | DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Dane Myers Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +199 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Marcell Ozuna Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +171 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nick Gonzales Over | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +127 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jeremy Pena Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +126 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Corey Seager Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +108 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Evan Carter Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +204 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Wyatt Langford Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +110 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Joc Pederson Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +171 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Xavier Edwards Under | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -179 | DK Under 1.5 -179 | exact | 4.7% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | George Springer Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +135 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price | 3.8% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bo Bichette Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +110 | DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact | 3.4% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Heriberto Hernandez Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +104 | DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Francisco Lindor Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +117 | DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | A.J. Ewing Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +130 | DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Javier Sanoja Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +142 | DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Luis Robert Jr. Over | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +144 | DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | J.T. Realmuto Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +164 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Tyler O'Neill Over | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +141 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Christian Encarnacion-Strand O | PHI@ORI | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +171 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Christian Walker Over | RAN@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +164 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact | 2.0% | ✓✗✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Liam Hicks Under | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -187 | DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact | 1.1% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Carson Benge Under | MAR@MET | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -181 | DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact | 0.6% | ✓✗!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Angel Martinez Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +115 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price | 0.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Gabriel Moreno Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +138 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price | 0.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Rhys Hoskins Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +141 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Travis Bazzana Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +182 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +182 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Lars Nootbaar Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +149 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact | 0.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alejandro Kirk Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +136 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price | 0.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C (Review) | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nathan Church Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +199 | BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact | 0.0% | ✓✗✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked High Total edge 36% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement | Total | Over 6.5 | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 6.5 | - | +100 | Bovada Direct Over 6 -125 | alt rescue | +35.8% | –✓–––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Total | Under 10.5 | TIG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 10.5 | - | +100 | MyBookie Under 11 -121 | alt rescue | +18.6% | –✓–––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Total | Over 8.5 | PIR@RED | 6:41 PM | 8.5 | - | -105 | MyBookie Over 8.5 -102 | best price | +15.1% | –✓–––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: selected-line market against 48.5% (3 books) | F5 Total | Over 3.5 | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | - | +100 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +100 | exact | +21.1% | –✓✗––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | F5 Total | Under 6.5 | ROY@ROC | 8:10 PM | 6.5 | - | -115 | BetUS Under 6.5 -115 | exact | +16.1% | –✓!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: selected-line market against 47.3% (1 books) | F5 Total | Under 5.5 | TIG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | - | -102 | BetUS Under 6 -120 | alt rescue | +15.7% | –✓✗––! | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked | F5 Total | Under 5.5 | NAT@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | - | -118 | BetUS Under 5.5 -115 | best price | +8.3% | –✓!––– | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| C | ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 50% (8 books) | Run Line | Minnesota Twins +1.5 | TWI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | - | -150 | LowVig Minnesota Twins 1.5 -143 | best price | +10.4% | –!✗✓–✓ | Lean Signal - Derisked |
| ► Watch Signals | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Watch Signal Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kohl Drake Over | DIA@GUA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -147 | DK Over 3.5 -147 | exact | 14.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | Watch Signal |
| D | ◇ Watch Signal Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min | Batter Total Bas | Davis Schneider Over | CAR@JAY | 3:08 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | +112 | BetOnline Over 0.5 +112 | exact | 200.0% | ✗✗✗––! | Watch Signal |
| D | ◇ Watch Signal Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min | Batter Total Bas | Ian Happ Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.4 | -112 | BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact | 188.1% | ✗✗✗––– | Watch Signal |
| D | ◇ Watch Signal Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min | Batter Total Bas | Dansby Swanson Over | YAN@CUB | 7:16 PM | 0.5 | 1.1 | +100 | BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact | 119.3% | ✗✗✗––– | Watch Signal |
✓ Supports ! Mixed ✗ Opposes – No Data | Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context