MLB Bets 2026-07-30

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	646W–325L–0P	67%	-24.79 u	Last 14 days • 971 settled
Grade A	27W–24L–0P	53%	-2.30 u
Grade B	619W–301L–0P	67%	-22.49 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	2692W–1783L–8P	60%	-160.07 u	All-time • 4483 settled
Grade A	236W–177L–0P	57%	+0.31 u
Grade B	2456W–1606L–8P	60%	-160.38 u

105 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	Brandon Lowe	1.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	James Wood	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	Nick Gonzales	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	Ryan O'Hearn	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz	1.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Hits	Jacob Wilson	1.5	-211	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	A.J. Ewing	0.5	-247	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Andy Pages	0.5	-294	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Anthony Seigler	0.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-312	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-321	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	-203	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Cal Raleigh	0.5	-180	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-228	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-313	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Dominic Canzone	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Enrique Hernandez	0.5	-507	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-202	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Freddie Freeman	0.5	-269	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Griffin Conine	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Heliot Ramos	0.5	-332	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Heriberto Hernandez	0.5	-247	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-332	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Jacob Wilson	0.5	-493	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-209	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Jonah Heim	0.5	-392	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Josh Naylor	0.5	-311	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Lawrence Butler	0.5	-295	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Luis Campusano	0.5	-227	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Luis Rengifo	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Luis Robert Jr.	0.5	-327	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Masataka Yoshida	0.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Max Muncy	0.5	-188	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Mookie Betts	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-538	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Rafael Devers	0.5	-218	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Teoscar Hernandez	0.5	-336	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Tommy Edman	0.5	-343	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Tommy White	0.5	-454	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Ty France	0.5	-289	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Weston Wilson	0.5	-449	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Eury Perez	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Jake Irvin	3.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Rhett Lowder	4.5	123	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Ryan Weathers	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Sean Burke	6.5	-146	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	K Prop	Shane McClanahan	4.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Eury Perez	1.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	JP Sears	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Mason Barnett	1.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	2.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Weathers	2.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Sean Burke	2.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane McClanahan	1.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	2.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Hits Allow	Javier Assad	5.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Walks	Eury Perez	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Walks	Noah Cameron	2.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Pitcher Walks	Sean Burke	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-30	Run Line	Seattle Mariners	+1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-07-29	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	4.5	-133	-	LOSS	-1.000	Hayden Wesneski: 4.0 (line 4.5)
2026-07-29	Batter H+R+RBI	Drake Baldwin	1.5	-122	-	WIN	+0.820	Drake Baldwin: 3.0 (line 1.5)
2026-07-29	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-123	-	WIN	+0.813	Jordan Walker: 3.0 (line 1.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	477	56%	-9.75u	71	51%	-7.02u	223	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	427	58%	+7.55u	70	49%	-10.58u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	151	56%	-0.35u	13	69%	+2.73u	43	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1142	74%	-3.12u	515	77%	+5.94u	7	86%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	449	56%	-19.20u	119	48%	-22.56u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	337	60%	-12.07u	97	62%	+0.65u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	44	75%	+2.47u	7	57%	-1.43u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	32	53%	-0.34u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	112	47%	-12.23u	9	67%	+1.31u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	55	40%	-9.78u	5	60%	+0.73u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	14	50%	-1.77u	13	54%	-0.77u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	533	52%	-51.25u	49	63%	+5.43u	80	55%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 477, 14d N 71	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 427, 14d N 70	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 151, 14d N 13	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 19 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 19/19 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 44, 14d N 7	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 78 total candidate(s); season N 32, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 112, 14d N 9	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 14, 14d N 13	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 58 total candidate(s); season N 533, 14d N 49	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 58 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 766 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 220 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 744 pitcher(s), 3289 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 568 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 19 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 20 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 20 team(s), 180 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 20 roster team(s), 260 hitter(s) \| 19 SP matchup(s), 721 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 180 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 10 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 20 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 20 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Chicago White Sox, San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals, New York Yankees
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	First-inning artifact: missing — no promoted or last-known-good artifact \| current-slate feature handoff missing
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 327 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 4/4 game(s) with pitching props \| K 7 line(s)/4 game(s); Outs 7 line(s)/4 game(s); Hits Allowed 7 line(s)/4 game(s); Walks 7 line(s)/4 game(s); Earned Runs 8 line(s)/4 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 33, betmgm 3
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 874 market side(s) checked \| 874 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 4 game(s) fetched \| 4 with ML odds \| 4 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 58 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 4 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 4 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 609 \| batter bats 321 \| batter hand splits 147 \| pitcher HR splits 63 \| batter pitch-type 568 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 71 batter(s) scored \| 4 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	+114	-137	+1.5 (-216)	-1.5 (+176)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-193	+158	-1.5 (-122)	+1.5 (+102)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+137	-166	+1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+124	-150	+1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 50 Grade B | 276 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: juiced K over -149, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch	K Prop	Eury Perez Over	MAR@MET	8:11 PM	5.5	7.5	-149	BetRivers Over 5.5 -143 \| best price	35.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (8 play(s))

Pitcher Earned Runs - Nolan McLean Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.83

Batter Total Bases - Jonah Heim Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

K Prop - Sonny Gray Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.5

Batter H+R+RBI - Caleb Durbin Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.83

Batter Total Bases - Carlos Cortes Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Rafael Devers Over

Projection: 1.8Displayed: Over 1.5 +135Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Connor Wong Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 1.5 +147Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.9Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

Batter Total Bases - Francisco Lindor Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (-149) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-164	+125	-
BetRivers	5.5	-143	+108	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-148	+116	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 35.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.98K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Eury Perez: K/9 9.6, proj 7.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ben May — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 38 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .147 | OPS .531
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 20.2%, L7 28.2%, season 22.5%, BVP 26.3%/38 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.89
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: juiced K over -149, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (50 play(s))

▸ Pitcher Walks — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Eury Perez Over 1.5 (-147) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.414685019836378 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.6 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 38 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .147 | OPS .531
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 20.2%, L7 28.2%, season 22.5%, BVP 26.3%/38 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.1%, L7 11.1%, season 8.6%, BVP 7.9%/38 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Over 1.5 (-160) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	-
DK	1.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.62 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 2.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 38 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .147 | OPS .531
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 20.2%, L7 28.2%, season 22.5%, BVP 26.3%/38 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Mason Barnett Over 1.5 (-175) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.37 over 3.5 IP (xFIP 4.36, ERA 6.69)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.5 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; recent 1.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Mason Barnett: 14 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.155
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.5%, L7 25.9%, season 22.1%, top-6 20.3%, BVP 21.4%/14 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/14 (29%) | Season 4/14 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Under 2.5 (-171) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-
DK	2.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.92 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.34, ERA 2.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.9% / under 59.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nolan McLean: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .000 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.0%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 17.4%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-144) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-135	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+108	-144	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.20 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 2.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 33 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .276 | OPS .689
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 21.2%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-211) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -211

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+157	-211	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-211); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 41 play(s) (B 41)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-421) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+285	-421	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-421) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-405) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -405 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+276	-405	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 86/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-405); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-399) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -399

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+272	-399	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/105 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 85/105 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-399) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-263) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+185	-263	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 13 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .308
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/103 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 76/103 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-263) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-463) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -463 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -463

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -463 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+311	-463	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/102 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 81/102 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-463) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-203) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -193 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -193 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+143	-193	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+145	-203	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 6.9% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-203) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-332) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 6.9% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-332) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-368) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+253	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+305	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 80/108 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-368); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-493) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -493 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -493

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -493 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+328	-493	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-493); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-392) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -392

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+267	-392	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-392); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-454) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -454 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -454

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -454 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+305	-454	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-454); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-295) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-295); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-294) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/107 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 74/107 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-294); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-313) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+218	-313	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-313); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-332) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/105 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 80/105 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-332) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-228) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+162	-228	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-325	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/100 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 75/100 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-228); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-343) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -343

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+237	-343	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.1% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-343); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-290) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -290; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+203	-290	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.1% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-290); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-336) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+233	-336	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.1% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-336); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Enrique Hernandez Under 0.5 (-507) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -507 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -507

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -507 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.1% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-507); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-209) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+149	-209	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/100 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 79/100 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-209); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-218) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+155	-218	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/108 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 69/108 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-218) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-188) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+127	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+135	-188	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/99 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/51 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 60/99 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

⚠ Heavy juice (-188); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-247) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-247); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-328) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+227	-328	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-328); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-311) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+217	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-311); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-310) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-258) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+182	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-335	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-258); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-164) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+127	-170	-
DK	0.5	+118	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-227) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+162	-225	-
DK	0.5	+162	-227	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-227) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-316) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+220	-316	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-316) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-289) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+202	-289	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-289) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-320) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+223	-320	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-320); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-449) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -449

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+302	-449	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-449); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-180) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+130	-180	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-180); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-312) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+217	-312	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/100 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 74/100 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-312); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-600) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-600); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-269) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+190	-269	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 66/105 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 66/105 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48

⚠ Heavy juice (-269); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-247) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-247); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-202) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+150	-205	-
DK	0.5	+145	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-202); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-327) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+227	-327	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-327); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-118) edge 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (F5) | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-110	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetUS	3.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	3.5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-110	Selected
MyBookie	3.5	-113	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Nolan McLean xFIP 3.34
Eury Pérez xFIP 4.06
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 96 (team 96)
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 111 (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP)
Away SP: Eury Pérez (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-155) edge 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -155

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -143 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Reiver Sanmartin (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Yoel Duarte (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Fernando Sanchez (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.0 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+13.71/$100
✓ Cover prob 69.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 11.0% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -155 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: JP Sears (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 98 (team 96)
San Francisco Giants confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Away SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
JP Sears small sample (28 IP) — stats 35% actual / 65% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -0.355u

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Seattle Mariners +1.5 1.5 (-157) edge 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Seattle Mariners 1.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -157

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Seattle Mariners 1.5 -149 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+9.25/$100
✓ Cover prob 66.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 8.3% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 1 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -157 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Roki Sasaki (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Bryan Woo (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 112 (team 108)
Seattle Mariners confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 103 (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.1
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market health drawdown: Run Line Grade B held as review-only while season P&L -0.355u

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (276 signal(s))

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 58 play(s) (B 16 | C 42)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-137) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-135	+100	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.303 (15 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/49 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 58/102 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-120) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.492 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/107 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 57/107 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-135) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.411 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/105 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 58/105 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-142) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/107 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 60/107 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-135) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/105 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 51/105 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-115) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.569 (11 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/96 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/44 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 50/96 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-119) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.162, xSLG 0.208 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-138) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.188, xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (-158) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	-
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-122) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-123) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-150) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-122) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-148) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-148	+112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (-119) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-124) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (-150) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.390, xSLG 0.570 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 51/97 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 51/97 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-115) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.390 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 52/101 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 69/105 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.41

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+106) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-145	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.375, xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/97 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 50/97 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-109) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.476 (72 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 55/108 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-113) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.557 (65 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/98 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 57/98 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.99

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+102) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.430 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/98 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 54/98 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.08

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+109) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.407 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 56/108 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+107) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.489 (55 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 52/109 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Under 2.5 (-167) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-
DK	2.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.72 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.291 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/100 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/51 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 34/49 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 71/100 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+121) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.508 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/104 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 45/104 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-112) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+113) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.394, xSLG 0.584 (32 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/84 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 37/84 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+108) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.354 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+120) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.493 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 13 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .308
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/103 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 47/103 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-104) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 58/109 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-107) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 49/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Under 2.5 (-132) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	+101	-134	-
DK	2.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.16 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344, xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/54 under 2.5 (72%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 34/51 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 73/105 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 2.5 (-152) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
DK	2.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.347 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/54 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 34/49 under 2.5 (69%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 67/103 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Under 2.5 (-140) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.25 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.484 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/46 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 under 2.5 (47%), avg 2.64 | Day Batter HRR: 52/99 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+110) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-140) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 (-174) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+108) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Under 1.5 (-150) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Under 2.5 (-134) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	+105	-139	-
DK	2.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.504 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/100 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/52 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 31/48 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 61/100 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-171) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+110) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (-106) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/102 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/48 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 44/102 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-108) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+123) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+108) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-148) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (-132) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-132	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (-107) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+109) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+110	-145	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Under 1.5 (-153) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Under 1.5 (-153) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+127) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +127; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 78 play(s) (B 3 | C 71 | D 4)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (-190) diff 206.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-187) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	Recommended
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/101 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/50 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 71/101 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 364.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 364.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/108 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/53 over 0.5 (81%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 75/108 over 0.5 (69%), avg 2.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 365% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+200) diff 364.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 364.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.32
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/108 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/53 over 0.5 (81%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 75/108 over 0.5 (69%), avg 2.32

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.6% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 31.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 365% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-150) diff 227.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.493 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 13 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .308
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/103 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 62/103 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.66

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 (-150) diff 226.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/84 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/43 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 24/41 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 49/84 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.67

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daniel Susac Over 0.5 (-165) diff 221.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-150) diff 221.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (+100) diff 221.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+106	-137	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+100	-132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (+200) diff 218.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dalton Rushing Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enrique Hernandez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-192) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-185) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-150) diff 206.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 (-200) diff 206.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (+170) diff 206.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 33.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-120) diff 204.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Raley Over 0.5 (-120) diff 204.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-115) diff 204.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Weston Wilson Over 0.5 (+105) diff 204.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-143) diff 203.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.489 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 39/56 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 73/109 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.46

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-135) diff 202.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jase Bowen Over 0.5 (-110) diff 202.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	0.5	-102	-135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (+190) diff 202.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-175) diff 201.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+126	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-120) diff 201.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-110) diff 201.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	0.5	-112	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Graham Pauley Over 0.5 (+260) diff 201.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+112	-145	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 35.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 0.5 (-150) diff 196.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.508 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 67/104 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 196.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 0.5 (-185) diff 195.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 195.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 0.5 (-155) diff 195.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 195.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 0.5 (-200) diff 191.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/97 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 32/47 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 62/97 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-190) diff 179.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.354 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/102 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/49 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 40/53 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 70/102 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 (-130) diff 131.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.211 (49 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/87 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 47/87 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 131.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 131.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (-125) diff 98.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 54/100 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 54/100 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 98.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 98.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-119) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.504 (51 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/100 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 44/100 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+153) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +153

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+153	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 53/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+114) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-170	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.303 (15 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/102 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 50/102 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 (+115) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.570 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/97 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/97 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+135) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.407 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/108 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 44/108 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-123) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/105 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/54 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 39/105 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.557 (65 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/98 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 37/98 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+110) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.411 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-112) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-155) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/100 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 37/51 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 72/100 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+128) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.569 (11 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/96 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/44 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 42/96 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+126) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.492 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 45/107 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-131) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (52 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/100 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 65/100 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-203) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 70/109 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+130) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.390 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/101 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 39/101 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+154) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+151	-205	-
DK	1.5	+154	-206	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.430 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/98 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 41/98 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+110) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/105 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 39/105 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+120) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (+147) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+147	-198	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+110) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+120) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+113) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+135) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+129) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+117) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/107 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 42/107 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+129) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+142) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 41/105 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.52

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-185) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +129; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+135) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.489 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/109 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/53 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 37/109 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.46

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+140) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+143) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+119) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/99 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter TB: 38/99 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-172) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.476 (72 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 72/108 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-120) diff 195.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-130) diff 137.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 137.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (70 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/90 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 46/90 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 137.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-165) diff 121.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/102 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 55/102 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-135) diff 83.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.364 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/104 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 26/49 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 51/104 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

▸ K Prop — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — JP Sears Over 3.5 (-117) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-115	-112	-
BetRivers	3.5	-105	-127	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-110	-120	-
DK	3.5	-117	-109	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-106	-120	-
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetMGM	4.5	+190	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
JP Sears: K/9 7.9, proj 3.9K over 4.5 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.4% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Sweeper: 25.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JP Sears: 59 PA | K% 27.1% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .634
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 59 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 19.5%, season 21.0%, top-6 17.6%, BVP 27.1%/59 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.6% (4/6); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.83 | Season Avg 3.83
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-158) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.2% / Under 57.8%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+150	-220	-
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-152	+116	-
BetRivers	4.5	-136	+102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	+124	-158	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.2% / under 57.8%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.14
Sonny Gray: K/9 7.9, proj 5.1K over 5.8 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Nate Tomlinson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 33 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .276 | OPS .689
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 21.2%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Roki Sasaki Over 5.5 (-132) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-125	-103	-
BetRivers	5.5	-109	-122	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-110	-
DK	5.5	-132	+103	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-118	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 4/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Roki Sasaki: K/9 8.9, proj 5.8K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.8% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Nic Lentz — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Slider: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Roki Sasaki: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.200
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.1%, L7 22.2%, season 22.9%, top-6 17.7% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.7% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/18 (33%) | Season 6/18 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (8 books) | consensus 57% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Under 6.5 (-105) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 6.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -105

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 6.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	6.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	6.5	-125	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
BetRivers	6.5	-121	-110	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
DK	6.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	6.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 2/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Nolan McLean: K/9 10.7, proj 6.3K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 23.9% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ben May — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Curveball: 32.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nolan McLean: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .000 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.0%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 17.4%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.4% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.76
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robbie Ray Under 4.5 (-119) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -119

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-109	-119	-
BetRivers	4.5	-104	-129	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-107	-119	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.3, proj 4.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.2% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Curveball: 18.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 10% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, L7 19.5%, season 21.0%, top-6 17.6% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.81
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-144) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
BetRivers	5.5	+123	-165	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 8.9, proj 5.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Sweeper (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Nic Lentz — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .071 | OPS .330
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.2%, season 20.5%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.70
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Roki Sasaki Under 17.5 (-137) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 17.36 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 16.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	16.5	-120	-120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	17.5	+100	-135	Recommended
BetOnline	17.5	+100	-140	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	17.5	+110	-150	-
DK	17.5	+103	-137	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	+118	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 14.732 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 15.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 17.36 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Roki Sasaki: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.200
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.1%, L7 22.2%, season 22.9%, top-6 17.7% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.7%, L7 3.6%, season 8.7% (adj 0.91x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.90 | Season Avg 15.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.77 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.77 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-189) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -189

Selected market: Over 61.3% / Under 38.7%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	17.5	-190	+145	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-190	+145	-
Caesars	17.5	-200	+150	-
DK	17.5	-189	+142	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-180	+134	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.643 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.34 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.3% / under 38.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nolan McLean: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .000 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.0%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 17.4%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.0%, split 10.1%, L7 8.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 21.4%/14 PA (adj 1.15x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-165) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-165	+125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	17.5	-180	+127	-
DK	17.5	-165	+124	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-162	+118	-
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.378999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.62 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 33 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .276 | OPS .689
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 21.2%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 14.1%, L7 6.7%, season 9.0%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 16.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.96 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eury Perez Over 17.5 (-111) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-120	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-113	-120	-
DK	17.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-112	-122	-
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.132 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.06 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 38 PA | K% 26.3% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .147 | OPS .531
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 20.2%, L7 28.2%, season 22.5%, BVP 26.3%/38 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.1%, L7 11.1%, season 8.6%, BVP 7.9%/38 PA (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 16.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Under 17.5 (+105) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-125	-115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-136	+102	-
DK	17.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	-
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 16.975 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.67 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .071 | OPS .330
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.2%, season 20.5%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 12.0%, L7 5.7%, season 10.1%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (+108) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 5.5 +108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
DK	5.5	-144	+108	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.86 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 5.7 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 33 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .276 | OPS .689
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 21.2%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Over 5.5 (-114) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-120	-120	-
DK	5.5	-114	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.7% / under 50.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .071 | OPS .330
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.2%, season 20.5%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Roki Sasaki Over 1.5 (-135) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7317066723656516 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.0 IP (BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Roki Sasaki: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.200
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.1%, L7 22.2%, season 22.9%, top-6 17.7% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 8.7%, L7 3.6%, season 8.7% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bryan Woo Under 1.5 (-102) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3145386647057744 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.4 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .071 | OPS .330
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.2%, season 20.5%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 12.0%, L7 5.7%, season 10.1%, BVP 12.5%/16 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sonny Gray Over 1.5 (-103) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6612933331146265 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.5 IP (BB% 6.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 33 PA | K% 21.2% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .276 | OPS .689
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.8%, L7 22.9%, season 22.8%, BVP 21.2%/33 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 14.1%, L7 6.7%, season 9.0%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robbie Ray Over 2.5 (+140) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7344895373383484 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.49 over 5.5 IP (BB% 11.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, L7 19.5%, season 21.0%, top-6 17.6% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, L7 10.5%, season 6.9% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nolan McLean Under 2.5 (-199) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+148	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4228975184322143 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.6 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.7% / under 62.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nolan McLean: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .000 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.0%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 17.4%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.0%, split 10.1%, L7 8.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 21.4%/14 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/21 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — JP Sears Over 1.5 (+159) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +159

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+159	-213	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.5001328906156965 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 36.2% / under 63.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JP Sears: 59 PA | K% 27.1% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .634
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 19.5%, season 21.0%, top-6 17.6%, BVP 27.1%/59 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.3%, L7 10.5%, season 6.9%, BVP 6.8%/59 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/6 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — JP Sears Over 1.5 (-118) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.25 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.17)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs JP Sears: 59 PA | K% 27.1% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .236 | OPS .634
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 19.5%, season 21.0%, top-6 17.6%, BVP 27.1%/59 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Over 2.5 (-126) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.82, ERA 2.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, L7 19.5%, season 21.0%, top-6 17.6% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/21 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Under 2.5 (+108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-105	-
DK	2.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.90 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.67, ERA 4.89)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 108)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryan Woo: 16 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .071 | OPS .330
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.9%, L7 20.2%, season 20.5%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 25.0%/16 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 (-127) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.38 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 4.68)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.4 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Roki Sasaki: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .400 | OPS 1.200
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 18.1%, L7 22.2%, season 22.9%, top-6 17.7% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-224) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+166	-224	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.81 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259 (52 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 11/35 (31%) | L5 7/17 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/100 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/51 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Hits: 37/49 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 78/100 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.81

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Masataka Yoshida Under 1.5 (-273) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+201	-273	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Anthony Seigler Under 1.5 (-259) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+191	-259	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-250) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+184	-250	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.95 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.344 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 3/39 (8%) | L5 2/20 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/105 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 35/51 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 77/105 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Willson Contreras Under 1.5 (-240) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+178	-240	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 9/29 (31%) | L5 1/12 (8%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/100 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 37/48 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 75/100 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-203) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+152	-203	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/54 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 75/103 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-219) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -219 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -219

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -219 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+163	-219	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.32 (AVG 0.331)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.261 (15 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 15/42 (36%) | L5 10/22 (46%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/102 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 27/49 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter Hits: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 61/102 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 33 play(s) (C 33)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-366) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -366 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -366 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+251	-366	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 6.9% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-500) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 6.9% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-496) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -496 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -496

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -496 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+330	-496	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 6.9% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-475) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-585) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -585

Selected market: Over 19.6% / Under 80.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+381	-585	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-505) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -505 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -505

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -505 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+335	-505	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-325) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+225	-325	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.1% fallback
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-320) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+222	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/90 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 67/90 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+180) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.68
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/53 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 54/108 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.68

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.8% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 32.8% (1 books) — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+185) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +220 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +185

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+185	-262	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.68
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/53 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 54/108 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.68

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 30.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-359) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 69/98 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Graham Pauley Under 0.5 (-380) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -380 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -380

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -380 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+260	-380	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-342) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+236	-342	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-270) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+190	-270	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-266) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+188	-266	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.1% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-214) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+161	-225	-
DK	0.5	+153	-214	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-485) diff 30.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -485

Selected market: Over 22.1% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+324	-485	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-421) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+285	-421	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-390) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+266	-390	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-291) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+197	-280	-
DK	0.5	+204	-291	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-227) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+140	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+161	-227	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/101 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 61/101 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-251) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+177	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/44 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 59/96 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-217) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+155	-217	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/97 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 66/97 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-155) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	-
DK	0.5	+112	-155	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/107 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 70/107 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 (+115) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 59/97 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/50 over 0.5 (66%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Walks: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 59/97 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-178) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+128	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/84 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 27/41 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 55/84 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-208) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+149	-208	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/101 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 69/101 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+156) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +156

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+156	-219	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 20/49 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 46/104 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.53

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-154) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+112	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 31/51 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 69/105 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-204) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/102 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 29/54 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 64/102 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-190) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+136	-190	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/51 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 65/105 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+158) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+157	-213	-
DK	0.5	+158	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/57 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/52 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 44/109 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (-102) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -102

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	-
DK	0.5	-102	-135	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 40/100 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 18/48 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 40/100 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ No HR — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (+920) edge 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 +920

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.530 (raw=1.872, park_adj=-0.070, SP_z=-0.30)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.98x (base lambda 1.563)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Nolan McLean pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.5, xwOBA 0.301, HH% 33.8, mix SI/FF, n=1978)
Eury Pérez pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.2, xwOBA 0.310, HH% 38.8, mix FF/SL, n=1605)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Miami Marlins lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.392, hitters 9, mix SI/FF)
New York Mets lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.411, hitters 9, mix FF/SL)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
New York Mets bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.84, expected pen 3.0 IP)
Miami Marlins bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.82, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 21.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 54.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.93 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Nolan McLean): 0.0215 HR/BF Away SP (Eury Pérez): 0.0280 HR/BF
Kyle Stowers: 0.0417 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1667 lambda
Liam Hicks: 0.0361 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1623 lambda
A.J. Ewing: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 9.3% (16 batter lines used) edge = +12.3%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (+920) edge 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 +920

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.530 (raw=1.872, park_adj=-0.070, SP_z=-0.30)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.98x (base lambda 1.563)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Nolan McLean pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.5, xwOBA 0.301, HH% 33.8, mix SI/FF, n=1978)
Eury Pérez pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.2, xwOBA 0.310, HH% 38.8, mix FF/SL, n=1605)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Miami Marlins lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.392, hitters 9, mix SI/FF)
New York Mets lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.411, hitters 9, mix FF/SL)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
New York Mets bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.84, expected pen 3.0 IP)
Miami Marlins bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.82, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 21.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 54.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.93 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Nolan McLean): 0.0215 HR/BF Away SP (Eury Pérez): 0.0280 HR/BF
Kyle Stowers: 0.0417 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1667 lambda
Liam Hicks: 0.0361 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1623 lambda
A.J. Ewing: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 9.3% (16 batter lines used) edge = +12.3%

▸ Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-114) edge 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -114

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 9 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-115	-	-
BetOnline	7	-115	-	-
BetRivers	7	-115	-	-
BetUS	7	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-115	-	-
DK	7	-114	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-115	-	-
LowVig	7	-113	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7	-113	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Eury Pérez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 103 (team 96)
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Nolan McLean elite xFIP (3.34)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-114) edge 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-118	-102	-
BetUS	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	5.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-114	-114	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	-114	-107	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.36
Sonny Gray xFIP 3.62
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 101)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 113 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.16
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 48.8% (7 books)

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+150) edge 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS +160 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +150

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetUS +160 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.36
Sonny Gray xFIP 3.62
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 101)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 113 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.16
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Athletics (+158) edge 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers +165 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +158

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers +165 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +158 with 15.1% edge (EV $+34.44/$100)
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP) | opp wRC+ 119 vs RHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 118 (team 101)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.11
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Athletics strong offense (wRC+ 118)
Mason Barnett small sample (24 IP) — stats 30% actual / 70% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 72.0% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 24.6% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +102 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter HR — 71 play(s) (C 71)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Graham Pauley Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jase Bowen Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Raley Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 108 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 92.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0392
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.303 (15 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 98/102 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/49 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 98/102 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 91.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0481
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.364 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/104 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 99/104 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 89.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.279 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/52 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0600
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/100 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 94/100 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0612
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.430 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/98 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 92/98 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0748
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0857
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/105 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 96/105 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.354 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 95/102 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 95/102 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0891
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.331 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/50 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0882
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/102 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 93/102 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0926
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.476 (72 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/108 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 100/108 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.291 (52 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1058
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.508 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/104 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/104 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-900) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1068
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (58 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/103 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/103 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.489 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-750) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1300
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.203 (62 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (70 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/90 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 78/90 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-750) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1287
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.390 (67 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Roki Sasaki: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-650) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.411 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1443
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.461 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/97 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 84/97 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-400) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/105 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 92/105 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1682
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.492 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/107 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 91/107 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.584 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/84 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 37/41 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 73/84 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1748
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.493 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 13 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .308
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 86/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1633
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.557 (65 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Roki Sasaki contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-550) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1771
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.569 (11 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/96 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/44 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 81/96 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-400) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2121
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/99 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 83/99 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2037
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.407 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: JP Sears contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs JP Sears: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .417
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/108 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 88/108 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-475) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2190
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/105 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 84/105 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Kurtz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2165
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.570 (28 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/97 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 78/97 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-475) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2200
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.504 (51 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/100 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 79/100 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3241
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/108 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter HR: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 78/108 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-114	50.9%	71.0%	+20.2%	$+33.32	9	Bet on DK
C	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Moneyline	Athletics	DK	+158	37.0%	52.1%	+15.1%	$+34.44	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (Total) +20.2%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Eury Pérez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 103 (team 96)
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Nolan McLean elite xFIP (3.34)

C Athletics — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (Moneyline) +15.1%

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +158 with 15.1% edge (EV $+34.44/$100)
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP) | opp wRC+ 119 vs RHP (tough)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.00)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 118 (team 101)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.11
Full game environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Athletics strong offense (wRC+ 118)
Mason Barnett small sample (24 IP) — stats 30% actual / 70% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 72.0% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 24.6% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +102 within price guard (-160 floor)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-114	50.0%	63.0%	+13.0%	$+18.30	6	Bet on DK
B	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (F5)	8:11 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-118	50.8%	61.6%	+10.8%	$+13.89	6	Bet on DK
C	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	DK	+150	37.7%	46.9%	+9.2%	$+17.37	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Under 5.5 — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +13.0%

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.36
Sonny Gray xFIP 3.62
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 101)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 113 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.16
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (F5) (F5 Total) +10.8%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Clay Holmes (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Nolan McLean xFIP 3.34
Eury Pérez xFIP 4.06
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 96 (team 96)
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 111 (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP)
Away SP: Eury Pérez (RHP)

C Athletics — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (F5) (F5 ML) +9.2%

[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.36
Sonny Gray xFIP 3.62
Athletics confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 101)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 113 (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.16
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Sonny Gray (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

8:11 PM · decision fi-12639441f9f7bc1b

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Eury Pérez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Nolan McLean · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-30T23:01:53.812830Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

5 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-155	+120	57.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-182	+135	60.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-167	+123	58.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-156	+122	57.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Boston Red Sox @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-00ab1d04a8260af5

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Sonny Gray · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Mason Barnett · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-30T23:01:53.812830Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

4 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+105	-139	45.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+122	-156	42.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

9:41 PM · decision fi-d8fed006768488ee

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Home starter: JP Sears · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-30T23:01:53.812830Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

5 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-118	-110	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-110	-122	48.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:11 PM · decision fi-7f589256909c3c90

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Bryan Woo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Roki Sasaki · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff unavailable · updated 2026-07-30T23:01:53.812830Z

missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

5 accepted paired book(s). missing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusmissing: no promoted or last-known-good artifact

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-108	-132	47.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 71 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=71
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	4	Mason Barnett (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	36.2%	23.2%	+13.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	1	Sonny Gray (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	31.0%	24.6%	+6.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	3	Sonny Gray (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	29.5%	20.8%	+8.7%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	2	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	28.6%	17.1%	+11.5%	95	-
Strong HR Chance	Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	27.9%	17.9%	+10.1%	93	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	3	TBD	theScore Bet	+300	-	27.4%	23.2%	+4.2%	91	-
Strong HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	3	Mason Barnett (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	27.0%	25.8%	+1.2%	90	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	4	Bryan Woo (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	26.4%	25.8%	+0.6%	88	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	4	JP Sears (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	26.1%	17.1%	+9.0%	87	-
Best HR Chance	Willy Adames	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	6	JP Sears (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	26.0%	17.9%	+8.1%	87	-
Best HR Chance	Heliot Ramos	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	2	JP Sears (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	25.9%	19.7%	+6.2%	86	-
Best HR Chance	Dominic Canzone	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	3	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	25.7%	19.7%	+6.0%	86	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	2	Bryan Woo (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	25.2%	17.9%	+7.3%	84	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	4	Nolan McLean (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	24.9%	17.1%	+7.8%	83	-
Best HR Chance	Luke Raley	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	7	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	24.3%	17.9%	+6.4%	81	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Eldridge	San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	3	JP Sears (L)	theScore Bet	+475	-	22.7%	16.4%	+6.3%	76	-
Best HR Chance	Andruw Monasterio	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	8	Mason Barnett (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	21.8%	13.3%	+8.5%	73	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Merrill	San Diego Padres	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	5	TBD	theScore Bet	+525	-	21.0%	15.0%	+6.0%	70	-
Best HR Chance	Anthony Seigler	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	1	Mason Barnett (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	20.5%	15.6%	+4.9%	68	-
Best HR Chance	Cal Raleigh	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	6	Roki Sasaki (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	18.5%	22.0%	-3.5%	62	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	91.3%	-1044	Willson Contreras, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Wilyer Abreu	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	100	88.7%	-783	Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Max Muncy, Dominic Canzone	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.3%	-
Watchlist	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	100	85.9%	-607	Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Heliot Ramos	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	85	78.3%	-362	Eddy Alvarez, Kyle Stowers, Heriberto Hernandez, Francisco Lindor	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 21.7%, P(U1.5) 54.8%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Willson Contreras — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (+300) HR chance 36.2% | edge +13.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.220, OPS 0.931, ISO 0.254, TB/G 1.87
Statcast: barrel 14.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.508
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 21/100 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0480, xFIP 4.74, K% 21.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.334, xERA 4.75, whiff 20.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.913, ISO 0.241 (299 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.504, xwOBA 0.358 (51 PA)

Best HR Chance Nick Kurtz — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (+275) HR chance 31.0% | edge +6.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.216, OPS 0.890, ISO 0.231, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 18.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.4/115.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.488
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 19/97 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0263, xFIP 3.62, K% 21.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.302, xERA 3.81, whiff 22.1%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.000, OPS 0.689 (33 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.984, ISO 0.278 (271 PA)

Best HR Chance Tyler Soderstrom — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (+350) HR chance 29.5% | edge +8.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.177, OPS 0.810, ISO 0.222, TB/G 1.69
Statcast: barrel 9.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.415
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 15/96 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0263, xFIP 3.62, K% 21.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.302, xERA 3.81, whiff 22.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.036, OPS 0.854, ISO 0.226 (275 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.569, xwOBA 0.351 (11 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Randy Arozarena — Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+450) HR chance 28.6% | edge +11.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.129, OPS 0.816, ISO 0.167, TB/G 1.63
Statcast: barrel 8.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/113.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.422
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 13/101 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0499, xFIP 4.14, K% 23.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.321, xERA 4.35, whiff 29.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.034, OPS 0.858, ISO 0.181 (325 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.390, xwOBA 0.292 (67 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Strong HR Chance Julio Rodriguez — Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+425) HR chance 27.9% | edge +10.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.163, OPS 0.735, ISO 0.166, TB/G 1.65
Statcast: barrel 8.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.0/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.471
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 15/98 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0499, xFIP 4.14, K% 23.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.321, xERA 4.35, whiff 29.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.026, OPS 0.695, ISO 0.132 (306 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.557, xwOBA 0.376 (65 PA)

⚠ Confirmed lineup but player not listed

Best HR Chance Manny Machado — San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (+300) HR chance 27.4% | edge +4.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.219, OPS 0.741, ISO 0.224, TB/G 1.63
Statcast: barrel 11.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/112.0, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.437
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 21/105 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Park HR factor 0.85
Night game start 9:41 PM ET
Opp bullpen HR/fatigue multiplier 0.87x
Market espnbet +300: implied 23.2%

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

Strong HR Chance Wilyer Abreu — Boston Red Sox @ Athletics (+260) HR chance 27.0% | edge +1.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.143, OPS 0.749, ISO 0.181, TB/G 1.65
Statcast: barrel 12.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/113.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.457
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 13/105 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 0/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0480, xFIP 4.74, K% 21.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.334, xERA 4.75, whiff 20.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.032, OPS 0.649, ISO 0.165 (310 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.464, xwOBA 0.344 (56 PA)

⚠ Cold recent HR form

Best HR Chance Max Muncy — Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+260) HR chance 26.4% | edge +0.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.212, OPS 0.854, ISO 0.247, TB/G 1.67
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.487
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 16/99 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0242, xFIP 3.67, K% 24.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.291, xERA 3.52, whiff 24.5%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.858, ISO 0.245 (292 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0286

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Jakob Marsee	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	+1000	0.7%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	+1200	0.9%	Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+1200	1.2%	Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Brett Baty	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	+550	1.5%	Pitcher season stats unavailable
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	+900	2.0%	Elite strikeout pitcher \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Kyle Tucker	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+450	2.2%	Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Xander Bogaerts	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+600	2.4%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Josh Naylor	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+550	2.5%	Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Graham Pauley	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	+900	2.5%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Batter power stats unavailable \| Elite strikeout pitcher
Jung Hoo Lee	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+1100	2.7%	Below HR chance tier

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	8:11 PM	Nolan McLean	Eury Pérez	0.93	21.7% MODEL SIGNAL	54.8% MODEL SIGNAL	9.3%	+12.3%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	JP Sears	None	0.85	14.1%	41.8%	6.6%	+7.5%
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Roki Sasaki	Bryan Woo	0.97	11.3%	36.0%	4.0%	+7.3%
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Mason Barnett	Sonny Gray	1.00	8.7%	30.0%	4.8%	+4.0%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Miami Marlins @ New York Mets — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (21.7%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (54.8%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.530 (raw=1.872, park_adj=-0.070, SP_z=-0.30)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.98x (base lambda 1.563)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Nolan McLean pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.5, xwOBA 0.301, HH% 33.8, mix SI/FF, n=1978)
Eury Pérez pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.2, xwOBA 0.310, HH% 38.8, mix FF/SL, n=1605)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Miami Marlins lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.392, hitters 9, mix SI/FF)
New York Mets lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.411, hitters 9, mix FF/SL)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
New York Mets bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.84, expected pen 3.0 IP)
Miami Marlins bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.82, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 21.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 54.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.93 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Nolan McLean): 0.0215 HR/BF Away SP (Eury Pérez): 0.0280 HR/BF
Kyle Stowers: 0.0417 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1667 lambda
Liam Hicks: 0.0361 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1623 lambda
A.J. Ewing: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 9.3% (16 batter lines used) edge = +12.3%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

19 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	57.7	59.3	62.0	7	Curveball (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	57.1	53.8	63.5	6	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Yohan Ramírez	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	56.4	58.0	56.5	4	Sweeper (37% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers	55.8	52.1	62.0	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	55.7	60.5	53.0	6	Slider (43% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners	55.2	62.4	47.0	3	Slider (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	53.2	62.8	44.5	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	51.4	57.2	50.0	4	Changeup (39% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	51.0	41.8	59.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	50.3	47.1	56.5	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cole Winn	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	48.0	57.4	37.5	5	Slider (41% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	46.4	47.2	47.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	45.4	50.0	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	44.5	51.1	37.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	43.5	39.1	46.0	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	43.0	52.7	33.0	6	Curveball (44% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	42.7	45.9	40.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	36.7	43.7	28.0	4	Slider (35% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	33.9	24.4	42.0	7	Cutter (14% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 13.9%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

19 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	R	17.5%	1.8	-	5.0	30	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.8 IP/start
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals	R	19.0%	4.8	4.9	4.9	80	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	R	22.0%	6.0	5.6	5.7	101	deep	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Javier Assad	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.1%	3.5	5.2	5.0	59	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	R	30.9%	6.2	5.5	6.0	104	deep	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	16.7%	2.8	4.7	4.3	47	short	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	L	22.4%	6.4	5.3	6.0	107	deep	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners	R	23.1%	5.0	5.2	5.2	84	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	27.0%	6.2	5.5	6.0	104	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	R	17.7%	4.9	5.4	5.3	82	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	28.8%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	L	25.9%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Yohan Ramírez	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	22.0%	1.2	-	4.8	20	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start
JP Sears	San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants	L	20.9%	4.3	4.9	5.1	72	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	23.1%	5.2	5.8	5.7	87	normal	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	R	16.7%	5.7	5.6	5.6	96	normal	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Shane McClanahan	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	L	20.9%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Cole Winn	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.7%	1.2	-	4.8	20	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves	R	24.3%	4.4	4.7	4.6	74	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

5/5 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Roki Sasaki	Roki Sasaki Under	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	14.7	-2.8	15.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.2	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.77 <= 3 min
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eury Perez	Eury Perez Over	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Under	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	17.0	-0.5	3.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

58 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Nick Kurtz	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.82	1.02	0.94	0.87	2.38 / Over	0.30	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Andy Pages	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.52	1.10	0.73	0.69	2.26 / Over	0.30	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Luis Arraez	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.51	1.47	0.61	0.43	2.33 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Freddie Freeman	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.40	1.19	0.59	0.62	2.15 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.40	1.11	0.81	0.48	2.24 / Over	0.30	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Tyler Soderstrom	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.33	0.93	0.67	0.74	2.00 / Over	0.30	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Liam Hicks	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.22	1.07	0.60	0.55	2.14 / Over	0.30	season_games=97,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jarren Duran	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.14	0.83	0.66	0.65	1.78 / Over	0.30	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.13	0.96	0.53	0.64	1.98 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Manny Machado	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.11	0.85	0.56	0.70	2.02 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_pitcher_assessment
Max Muncy	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.11	0.87	0.65	0.59	1.80 / Over	0.30	season_games=99,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Cole Young	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.10	1.04	0.58	0.48	1.98 / Over	0.30	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.04	1.25	0.48	0.31	2.16 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bo Bichette	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.04	1.07	0.46	0.51	2.12 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Anthony Seigler	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.02	1.04	0.53	0.45	1.66 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	1.94	1.11	0.45	0.39	2.08 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_pitcher_assessment
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	1.94	1.14	0.49	0.31	1.82 / Over	0.30	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jackson Merrill	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	1.91	0.93	0.49	0.50	1.89 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_pitcher_assessment
Josh Naylor	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.91	1.03	0.44	0.44	1.83 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Carson Benge	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	1.89	1.01	0.48	0.40	1.94 / Over	0.30	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	1.87	1.11	0.41	0.35	2.05 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jung Hoo Lee	San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	1.87	1.11	0.46	0.30	2.04 / Over	0.30	season_games=98,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	1.86	0.89	0.43	0.55	1.86 / Over	0.30	season_games=84,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Masataka Yoshida	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	Over 1.5	1.86	0.93	0.44	0.49	1.63 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Jacob Wilson	Boston Red Sox @ Athletics	Over 1.5	1.85	0.94	0.49	0.41	1.57 / Over	0.59	lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes